CLIMEX:预测物种分布区的软件

CLIMEX是通过物种已知地理分布区域的气候参数来预测物种潜在分布区的软件。 1 999年发布了最新版即CLIMEXforWindows 1 1。CLIMEX有 2个基本假设 :( 1 )物种在 1年内经历 2个时期 ,即适合种群增长时期和不适合以至于危及生存的时期 ;( 2 )气候是影响物种分布的主要因素 ,并利用增长指数、胁迫指数和限制条件 (滞育和有效积温 )描述物种对气候的不同反应 ,这 2组参数构成生态气候指数 ,作为全面描述物种在某地区和年份适合度的指标。模型预测结果以表、图和地图输出。CLIMEX可以用于检疫、生物防治、有害生物风险分析、害虫管理和流行病的预测等。目前已经用于几十种有害生物的适生性研究。该文通过拟和松墨天牛在中国的分布区为例说明CLIMEX的用法 ,并根据松墨天牛在亚洲东部的气候条件 ,预测其在全球的潜在适生区 ,为动植物检疫部门及时采取相应措施控制松材线虫的进一步扩散提供科学依据     

影响入侵种反枝苋分布的环境因子分析及可能分布区预测

 反枝苋（Amaranthus retroflexus）是苋属入侵种中发生频率最多、分布最广、危害最严重的杂草。基于反枝苋在世界范围内4 207个实际分布 点及其对应的气候、地形和土壤 3类要素28个环境因子的定量关系,利用主成分分析确定了影响其分布的主要环境因子,据此估测其中心可能 分布区和最大可能分布区,并与实际分布点进行比较。结果表明：14个环境因子在决定反枝苋全球分布格局中起着重要作用。反枝苋中心分布 区位于新西兰南部、澳大利亚东南部、南美洲北部少数地区、北美洲西北部及东南部部分地区、欧洲大部分地区和中国东南部,最大可能分布 区位于南美洲中南部、北美洲大部分、非洲北部小部分、澳大利亚南部及北部少数区域、欧洲大部分地区和亚洲大部分地区及中国除西藏、青 海、新疆、四川西部以外的地区。中心分布区的预测结果与实际分布点吻合较好,而最大分布区则过于广阔。     

金缕梅科:地理分布、化石历史和起源

本文利用系统发育与地理分布相结合的方法,探讨金缕梅科各属植物的系统位置和分布式样,并结合化石、古地理及古气候等证据,讨论该科的分布中心,可能的起源时间和地点以及现代分布式样形成的原因。研究结果表明：全世界金缕梅科植物共30属144种,间断分布于亚洲西部、东部、东南部,非洲东部、南部,大洋洲的澳大利亚东北部以及中美洲和北美洲的东南部,欧洲和南美洲尚无现代类群分布的记载。它基本上是一个热带和亚热带山地分布的科。通过对该科30个属的系统位置及其分布式样的分析,将金缕梅科属的分布归纳为：A．热带分布类型(18属),包括(1)热带亚洲分布(11属),(2)热带中美洲分布(2属),(3)热带非洲分布(2属),(4)热带大洋洲分布(3属),B．温带分布类型(12属),包括(5)东亚分布(7属),(6)西亚分布(2属),(7)西亚-东亚-北美间断分布(1属),(8)东亚-北美间断分布(1属),(9)北美分布(1属)。东亚区南部到印度支那区北部(即中国长江以南至中南半岛北部地区)是它的现代分布区中心;根据化石证据、原始类型分布和外类群分布分析,提出该科植物起源于劳亚古陆,并曾经有一个很长的白垩纪历史,至少在早白垩纪金缕梅科植物的先驱就已经出现。最后,从地质和气候的变迁等方面探讨了金缕梅科现代分布区形成的原因。     

气候变化对全球马缨丹分布影响的空间模拟

【目的】马缨丹是世界10种最有害的入侵杂草之一,预测其潜在适生区变化对入侵植物防控具有重要意义。【方法】以马缨丹为研究对象,采用有效分布点数据1744份和10个气候因子,使用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS10.4软件,选用当前气候情景以及2050sSSP126、2050sSSP245、2050sRCP5.8、2090sSSP126、2090sSSP245、2090sSSP585 6个不同气候情景,对马缨丹全球潜在分布区进行预测。【结果】温度和降水因子是制约马缨丹入侵的主要因子,其中年降水量(bio12,48.6%)、最干季度的平均温度(bio9,36.4%)、温度季节性(bio4,4.6%)和最热季度的平均温度(bio10,4.2%)是制约马缨丹分布格局的主要环境因子。南美洲、非洲南部、亚洲南部以及澳大利亚北部和东部具有较高的入侵风险。从当前气候情景到2050年气候情景再到2090年气候情景的过渡中,其适生区面积呈增加趋势,其中高适生区面积持续增加。【结论】在水热条件以及生物因素3个层面上严格防控马缨丹入侵,以增加土著生态系统的完整性。     

基于Maxent的两种入侵性鱼类(麦穗鱼和鲫)的全球适生区预测

受引种、贸易等人类活动的影响,麦穗鱼(Pseudorasbora parva)和鲫(Carassius auratus)在全球范围内已经广泛分布并造成巨大的生态危害。根据野外采样和文献记录,本文系统整理了麦穗鱼和鲫在世界各地的分布情况,以高达2.5弧分分辨率的环境数据底图,利用Maxent模型预测了麦穗鱼和鲫在全球的适生区,以期为防控麦穗鱼和鲫的入侵提供早期预警。结果表明麦穗鱼和鲫在全球范围的分布区非常广泛,除南极洲外的各个大洲均有其适生区,因此这两种鱼还有继续扩散的潜力,并可能在美国、巴西和阿根廷等国家出现由生物入侵导致的生态学问题。麦穗鱼的适生区主要集中在15o–55o N之间,欧洲是麦穗鱼入侵的重灾区,尤其是法国、荷兰周边的西欧国家和匈牙利、塞尔维亚周边的东欧国家;而美国中部的密西西比河流域、东部及南部沿海,以及西雅图至加拿大的温哥华之间是麦穗鱼潜在入侵风险性极高的区域。鲫自然分布于欧洲至东亚的广大地区,目前已经在澳大利亚、加拿大、美国、马达加斯加、印度和越南等国家有分布,未来还可能进一步扩散至大洋洲的新西兰和新喀里多尼亚,北美洲的墨西哥至南美洲的阿根廷,以及非洲的塞内加尔、几内亚和南非等国家;尤其是南美洲的阿根廷和巴西,非洲西部的几内亚、喀麦隆等国家将是鲫入侵风险极高的区域。     

新疆贝母潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测

基于新疆贝母的62个自然分布点和15个环境因子,利用Arc GIS软件和最大熵模型(MAXENT),预测、分析了该植物在基准气候1961—1990及2050 (2041—2060,基于RCP2.6和RCP6.0情景)条件下的潜在适生区、驱动因子及其生态位参数。结果表明:(1)基准气候下,新疆贝母的适生区主要集中在阿勒泰地区、准噶尔盆地西部、南部、阿拉山口西南部、伊犁河谷南部及吐鲁番盆地西部地区。其中,最适宜的分布主要集中在准噶尔盆地西南部、塔城地区和伊犁河谷中部和南部;(2)新疆贝母在2050时段气候情境下的潜在分布范围与基准气候相比,将分别增加0.94%和0.23%,新增的潜在生境主要分布在准噶尔盆地西部。但最适生的分布区将在伊犁河谷中部、南部及塔城地区略有减少(0.42%和0.39%);(3)年平均降水量、最干月降水量、最干季平均气温和海拔主要限制了新疆贝母的潜在分布,累积贡献率之和达88.58%;基准气候下该植物最适宜分布区的生态位参数为:年平均降水量248—469 mm,最干月降水量3—19 mm,最干季平均气温-22.7—-2.0℃,海拔1350—2100 m。     

“苦苣苔科植物及其持续利用”专题征稿启事

正苦苣苔科(Gesneriaceae)属核心真双子叶植物中菊类分支的唇形目,该科目前全世界约有150属3 500余种,主要分布在亚洲东部和南部、非洲、欧洲南部、大洋洲、南美洲至墨西哥等热带至温带地区。中国是苦苣苔科植物的主要分布区之一,拥有丰富的野生苦苣苔科植物资源,目前共记录有44属660余种,是我国特有种最丰富的大科之一。该科大多数物种分布范围狭窄,数量稀少,加上其生境特殊容易受     

基于MaxEnt模型预测四川省松材线虫的潜在适生区

松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus是我国重要的林业检疫性有害生物之一,由其引发的松材线虫病已造成巨大的经济损失,严重阻碍了林业的健康发展。研究并明确松材线虫在四川省的潜在适生区,对四川省有关部门制定该病害的早期监测、预警及防控具有一定的参考意义。本文基于2009—2018年四川省林业有害生物普查数据中松材线虫病和松墨天牛Monochamus alternatus的实际地理分布数据(松材线虫病:n=208,松墨天牛:n=803)及19个环境变量数据,利用MaxEnt模型和Arc GIS对松材线虫在四川省的潜在分布区进行预测,并用ROC曲线分析法检测模型模拟精度、用刀切法检测变量的重要性及其适宜值。结果表明:松材线虫在四川省的潜在最佳适生区主要分布在宜宾市、广安市、达州市、自贡市、西昌市,以及乐山市和眉山市的交界区,面积为36 541 km^2;影响松材线虫分布的主要环境变量为最干季均温(适值范围1. 5～8. 0℃,最适值6. 4℃)、季节性降水变异系数(适值范围22. 5%～34. 0%,最适值34. 0%)、最冷月最低温(适值范围0. 4～2. 5℃,最适值1. 9℃)、海拔(适值范围250～5 500 m,最适值450 m)、年温差(适值范围5. 9～9. 1℃,最适值5. 9℃)和年降水量(适值范围64～135 mm,最适值68 mm)。     

基于CLIMEX的2种核桃蚜虫潜在适生区分析

【目的】分析核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在全球范围内的潜在分布,比较气候变化对其分布的影响,为核桃有害生物综合管理策略的制定提供依据。【方法】基于实验室和野外试验,结合CLIMEX软件对核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在目前及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行了模拟和系统评估。【结果】2种核桃蚜虫适生区十分相似,在世界范围内主要分布区集中在欧洲、北美洲、亚洲等区域,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围大于核桃全斑蚜,但在我国,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围小于核桃全斑蚜。气候变化将决定2种蚜虫分布的差异性,未来气候情景下,2种蚜虫适生区将发生变化,在欧洲、北美洲和亚洲适生区范围向高纬度延伸;在我国适生区范围逐渐减小。【结论】在世界范围内,核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜适生区域主要分布在25°N-75°N内的亚洲、欧洲、北美洲的部分地区;在我国,其适生区域主要分布在东部季风区内的东北的南部、西北东南部、西南中部、华中北部以及华北地区。     

基于MaxEnt模型的菜豆象全球潜在适生区预测

【目的】菜豆象是重要的检疫性害虫,预测其在全球范围内的潜在适生区可为农业部门开展菜豆象防控工作和检验检疫部门制定检疫策略提供科学依据。【方法】在收集菜豆象已有分布点和全球气象数据的基础上,采用MaxEnt模型对其在全球范围内的潜在适生区进行预测分析。【结果】MaxEnt模型的AUC平均值为0.926,预测结果准确可靠。菜豆象适生区主要分布在欧洲中西部的德国、法国、英国、荷兰、比利时、意大利、波兰、乌克兰、白俄罗斯和罗马尼亚等国家,非洲大陆和马达加斯加岛的中东部地区,北美洲的墨西哥高原和美国中东部地区,南美洲南部地区,大洋洲澳大利亚东部和南部沿海地区、新西兰,亚洲中国的云贵高原、四川盆地、华中和华南地区和台湾岛,缅甸东部地区、泰国和老挝北部地区、尼泊尔和日本大部分地区。高度适生区、中度适生区和低度适生区面积分别占陆地面积的4.95%、6.73%和13.70%。【结论】菜豆象的适生区面积占陆地面积的25.38%,持续扩散和危害的风险大。我国西南、华南地区等地区面临的形势更为严峻。影响菜豆象分布的主要生物气候因素有最冷月份最低温度、年平均温度、年气温变化范围、年降雨量、最干月份降雨量、最热月份最高温度、最暖季度平均温度、温度季节变化方差、昼夜温差月均值等。     

The spread of the western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande)

Abstract 1 Since the late 1970s, the western flower thrips has spread from its original distribution in western North America to become a major worldwide crop pest. 2 A wide range of data sources have been used to map the original distribution in the U.S.A. and Canada, and the progress of the spread in the U.S.A., Canada, Europe, northern Africa and Australia. 3 The possible reasons for the start of the spread are discussed. The most likely reason is that intensive insecticide use in horticulture in the 1970s and 1980s selected an insecticide resistant strain or strains. These then established in glasshouses across North America and spread from there to Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia. 4 The international spread of the western flower thrips occurred predominantly by the movement of horticultural material, such as cuttings, seedlings and potted plants. Within Europe, an outward spread from the original outbreak in the Netherlands is discernible. The speed of spread was 229 ± 20 km/year. 5 The spread has not been restricted to glasshouses. The western flower thrips has established outdoors in areas with milder winters; for example, across the southern U.S.A., southern Europe and Australia. It also overwinters in some regions with colder winters. 6 Polyphagous phytophagous thrips have many factors predisposing them to become worldwide crop pests, particularly in glasshouses. Some other species that might spread in a similar way to the western flower thrips are listed.     

Geographical variation in age at menarche in Britain

The geographical distribution of age at menarche in great Britain is analysed in two successive generations. It appears that the variances for age at menarche are equal throughout the country. The means, however, show significant and complicated patterns of regional variation. In the southern and eastern parts of the country, menarche was earlier than in the northern parts in both generations. This patterning is not due to social class differentiation. Except for the sparsely populated areas in northern and western Scotland and for the extreme south-western parts of England and Wales all areas show evidence of a decline in age at menarche from the mothers' to the daughters' generation.     

Potential geographic distribution of brown marmorated stink bug invasion (Halyomorpha halys)

Background

The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies.

Methodology/Principals

We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP).

Conclusions/Significance

Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°–50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability.     

The current and future potential geographic range of West Indian fruit fly,Anastrepha obliqua （Diptera： Tephritidae）

The West Indian fruit fly, Anastrepha obliqua （Macquart）, is one of the most important pests throughout the Americas. CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of this pest. Under current climatic conditions, A. obliqua is predicted to be able to establish throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including not only North and South America, where it has been reported, but also southern Asia, northeastern Australia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The main factors limiting the pest＇s range expansion may be cold stress. Climate change expands the potential distribution of A. obliqua poleward as cold stress boundaries recede, but the predicted distribution in northwestern Australia and northern parts of Sub-Saharan Africa will decrease because of heat stress. Considering the widely suitable range for A. obliqua globally and in China, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.     

基于MaxEnt模型的入侵植物白花鬼针草的分布预测及适生性分析

【背景】白花鬼针草为农区恶性杂草,原产于美洲,现已广泛分布于世界热带及亚热带地区,但其在全球和中国的适生区域及适生等级还不明确。【方法】利用MaxEnt生态位模型对白花鬼针草在全球以及中国的潜在适生区进行预测。【结果】白花鬼针草在全球的分布更多受到温度因素的影响。白花鬼针草的适生区主要集中在北半球和南半球15°~30°之间的热带和亚热带地区。其中,北美南部、南美中南部、非洲南部、东南亚北部以及大洋洲中南部沿海地区为白花鬼针草中、高度适生区。白花鬼针草在中国的适生区主要位于广东、广西、海南、云南、福建、台湾。到2070年,白花鬼针草在全球的适生区面积与当前相似,但在中国的适生区有所增大。【结论】白花鬼针草在我国有进一步扩张的风险。     

藜科植物的起源、分化和地理分布

全球藜科植物共约130属1500余种,广泛分布于欧亚大陆、南北美洲、非洲和大洋洲的半干旱及盐碱地区。它基本上是一个温带科,对亚热带和寒温带也有一定的适应性。本文分析了该科包含的1l族的系统位置和分布式样,以及各个属的分布区,提出中亚区是现存藜科植物的分布中心,原始的藜科植物在古地中海的东岸即华夏陆台(或中国的西南部)发生,然后向干旱的古地中海沿岸迁移、分化,产生了环胚亚科主要族的原始类群;起源的时间可能在白垩纪初,冈瓦纳古陆和劳亚古陆进一步解体的时期。文章对其迁移途径及现代分布式样形成的原因进行了讨论。     

Faunal relationships and zoogeographical affinities of mammals in north-west Africa

The nonmarine mammal fauna of the Maghreb region of north‐west Africa is related to that from three potential source areas: the northern Palaearctic (Europe and south‐west Asia; here referred to as the European fauna), subsaharan Africa (the African fauna) and the arid Palaearctic (Sahara Desert: the desert fauna). On the basis of geographical distribution patterns, this fauna divisible into two groups: the bats, whose affinities are most closely related to southern Europe and south‐west Asia, and nonflying species, most closely related to subsaharan Africa but with an appreciable northern Palaearctic element. These affinities are even more pronounced if desert fauna are removed from the analysis. The nonflying European fauna probably colonized via south‐west Asia and north Africa, rather than direct from western Europe. The results demonstrate that terrestrial habitat barriers are less of an impediment to dispersal, for all mammals except bats, than even narrow stretches of water. The fauna of the Maghreb may be undergoing faunal relaxation, following immigration from tropical Africa and south‐west Asia during mesic phases in the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene.     

The synonymy and distribution of the crenaticeps-group of Atractomorpha Saussure, 1862 (Orthoptera, Acridoidea, Pyrgomorphidae)

The general distribution of Atractomorpha australis Rehn, A. similis Bolívar and A. crenaticeps (Blanchard) in Australia and the South Pacific is discussed. Detailed synonymies and lists of known localities are given for each species, together with a distribution map. A. australis is confined to cooler, moister regions of Australia from eastern Victoria to south-western Queensland; A. similis is more tropical, occurring in the southern Moluccas, Timor, southern New Guinea and associated islands to northern and eastern Australia, but it extends, in suitable localities, as far south as central New South Wales, and, in inland areas, even to north-western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia; A. crenaticeps , formerly thought to embrace both the above species, is restricted to the northern Moluccas, western and other parts of New Guinea north of and including the central mountain chains and associated islands to the north and west, and to the Bismarck Archipelago and the Solomon Islands.