Eco-efficiency Trends in the UK Steel and Aluminum Industries

Measures of eco-efficiency—broadly understood as "getting more from less"—often include an economic and an environmental variable. The latter is often seen as the more problematic variable, particularly when used in relation to impacts of public concern. But an analysis of resource and value trends in the U.K. steel and aluminum industries over the last 30 yr showed that there are significant problems associated with using economic variables in measures of eco-efficiency at the sectoral level.
The research found that the U.K. steel and aluminum industries have improved the effectiveness with which they use natural resources, but that this has been accompanied by a decline in the economic output (value added) per unit of material or energy consumed. These seemingly contradictory results can be explained by the fall in the price of metals in real terms, and by the competitive pressures that necessitate the cutting of production costs and indirectly lead to a fall in the measure of economic output of the relevant industry.
The research also suggests a logical terminology to bring consistency and coherence to the broad field of eco-efficiency indicators, with an important distinction made between measures that examine the value output per unit of physical input, and measures that examine the physical output per unit of physical input. Both these types of indicators are important, as they highlight different aspects of eco-efficiency.     

基于数据包络分析方法的城市水资源利用效率研究

为了对我国城市水资源利用效率问题进行分析和评价,本文基于数据包络分析方法,从农业、工业、生活、社会等几个方面共选取了5个输入指标及6个输出指标,利用AIC信息准则(Akaike information criterion)进行了变量选择,构建了较为科学合理的用水效率评价指标体系.在此基础上,采用香农熵指数提升了传统CCR(由Charnes A,Cooper W W,Rhodes E提出)模型的识别能力,选取我国31个省会城市为研究对象,给出了省会城市水资源效率的完整排名。结果表明:①绝大部分城市综合效率得分(CES,Comprehensive efficiency score)普遍不高,投入产出比仍有较大的进步空间;②拉萨、北京、天津、银川、海口、上海等城市CES得分相对较高,这说明一个城市水资源利用效率的高低与经济发展水平可能没有必然的联系,其他城市应结合自身情况向CES得分靠前的城市进行学习;③重庆、南宁、南昌、长沙等水资源较丰富的城市CES得分反而较低,表明这些城市可能存在大量水资源被浪费,应建立起节水机制,同时优化产业结构。     

Life Cycle Assessment of Carbon Dioxide–Based Production of Methane and Methanol and Derived Polymers

Previous studies showed that using carbon dioxide (CO₂) as a raw material for chemical syntheses may provide an opportunity for achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) savings and a low‐carbon economy. Nevertheless, it is not clear whether carbon capture and utilization benefits the environment in terms of resource efficiency. We analyzed the production of methane, methanol, and synthesis gas as basic chemicals and derived polyoxymethylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene as polymers by calculating the output‐oriented indicator global warming impact (GWI) and the resource‐based indicators raw material input (RMI) and total material requirement (TMR) on a cradle‐to‐gate basis. As carbon source, we analyzed the capturing of CO₂ from air, raw biogas, cement plants, lignite‐fired power, and municipal waste incineration plants. Wind power serves as an energy source for hydrogen production. Our data were derived from both industrial processes and process simulations. The results demonstrate that the analyzed CO₂‐based process chains reduce the amount of GHG emissions in comparison to the conventional ones. At the same time, the CO₂‐based process chains require an increased amount of (abiotic) resources. This trade‐off between decreased GHG emissions and increased resource use is assessed. The decision about whether or not to recycle CO₂ into hydrocarbons depends largely on the source and amount of energy used to produce hydrogen.     

Understanding and engineering beneficial plant–microbe interactions: plant growth promotion in energy crops

Plant production systems globally must be optimized to produce stable high yields from limited land under changing and variable climates. Demands for food, animal feed, and feedstocks for bioenergy and biorefining applications, are increasing with population growth, urbanization and affluence. Low‐input, sustainable, alternatives to petrochemical‐derived fertilizers and pesticides are required to reduce input costs and maintain or increase yields, with potential biological solutions having an important role to play. In contrast to crops that have been bred for food, many bioenergy crops are largely undomesticated, and so there is an opportunity to harness beneficial plant–microbe relationships which may have been inadvertently lost through intensive crop breeding. Plant–microbe interactions span a wide range of relationships in which one or both of the organisms may have a beneficial, neutral or negative effect on the other partner. A relatively small number of beneficial plant–microbe interactions are well understood and already exploited; however, others remain understudied and represent an untapped reservoir for optimizing plant production. There may be near‐term applications for bacterial strains as microbial biopesticides and biofertilizers to increase biomass yield from energy crops grown on land unsuitable for food production. Longer term aims involve the design of synthetic genetic circuits within and between the host and microbes to optimize plant production. A highly exciting prospect is that endosymbionts comprise a unique resource of reduced complexity microbial genomes with adaptive traits of great interest for a wide variety of applications.     

旅游地生态效率测度的SBM-DEA模型及实证分析

旅游地是典型的人地关系相互作用的特殊区域,旅游地的生态效率研究是其制定与实施包容性、持续性发展政策与措施的基础。采用基于时间序列、包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型方法,构建旅游地生态效率测度模型及评价指标体系,以黄山风景区为例,利用1981—2014年的投入产出数据,测度旅游地复合系统的生态效率,分析其演化特征和阶段,并利用Tobit回归模型对其影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)34年来,黄山风景区旅游生态效率(综合效率)不断提升,且具较大发展潜力,在分解效率中,技术效率较高,规模效率次之,规模效率是决定综合效率的关键因素;(2)旅游生态效率的演化经历了初期低效、快速成长、成熟高效、下行风险四个阶段,不同阶段效率的特征不同,影响因素也存在差异;(3)旅游生态效率完成了由规模报酬递增向递减的过渡,资源要素的投入冗余已成为现阶段阻碍生态效率的进一步提高的关键因素;(4)旅游发展水平、产业结构和技术水平对生态效率产生显著的正向影响,投资水平产生显著的负向影响,以废弃物末端治理为表征的环保规制对生态效率的提升作用并不显著。文章最后提出,在山岳型风景区发展初期,应尽可能扩大资源要素投入规模,进入成熟阶段后,则转向逐渐控制投入规模,改善技术能力和资源配置能力,摒弃过度依靠资源消耗和环境污染的粗放式发展模式,走精细化、可持续的发展道路。     

Rationale for and Interpretation of Economy-Wide Materials Flow Analysis and Derived Indicators

Economy-wide material flow analysis (MFA) and derived indicators have been developed to monitor and assess the metabolic performance of economies, that is, with respect to the internal economic flows and the exchange of materials with the environment and with other economies. Indicators such as direct material input (DMI) and direct material consumption (DMC) measure material use related to either production or consumption. Domestic hidden flows (HF) account for unused domestic extraction, and foreign HF represent the upstream primary resource requirements of the imports. DMI and domestic and foreign HF account for the total material requirement (TMR) of an economy. Subtracting the exports and their HF provides the total material consumption (TMC).
DMI and TMR are used to measure the (de-) coupling of resource use and economic growth, providing the basis for resource efficiency indicators. Accounting for TMR allows detection of shifts from domestic to foreign resource requirements. Net addition to stock (NAS) measures the physical growth of an economy. It indicates the distance from flow equilibrium of inputs and outputs that may be regarded as a necessary condition of a sustainable mature metabolism.
We discuss the extent to which MFA-based indicators can also be used to assess the environmental performance. For that purpose we consider different impacts of material flows, and different scales and perspectives of the analysis, and distinguish between turnover-based indicators of generic environmental pressure and impact-based indicators of specific environmental pressure. Indicators such as TMR and TMC are regarded as generic pressure indicators that may not be used to indicate specific environmental impacts. The TMR of industrial countries is discussed with respect to the question of whether volume and composition may be regarded as unsustainable.     

生态产业共生系统仿真研究

通过ABM方法研究生态产业共生系统,利用STARLOGO软件平台,并结合案例分析生态产业共生系统的宏观规律。研究结果表明,(1)对于规模相当的不同的生态产业共生系统,在资源输入一定情况下,直接利用输入资源的企业总规模大于对系统内废弃物再利用的企业总规模是有利于系统稳定的:(2)对于特定的生态产业共生系统,系统稳定性对系统参数改变时的敏感性是不一样的,其中对污染物产出指标最敏感,对污染物产生量与系统产出的比例关系其次,对资源输入指标最不敏感;(3)系统时间序列稳定性的变化主要由节点处企业Ⅱ的不稳定性导致。     

Influence of Input‐Scrap Quality on the Environmental Impact of Secondary Steel Production

In electric arc furnaces (EAFs), different grades of steel scrap are combined to produce the targeted carbon steel quality. The goal of this study is to assess the influence of scrap quality on the recycling process and on the final product by investigating the effect of the scrap mix composition, and other inputs, for example, preheating energy, on the electricity demand of the melting process. A large industrial data set (empirical data set of ～20,000 individual heats recorded during 2.5 years at a Swiss EAF site) is analyzed using linear regression. The influence of scrap grades on electricity demand are found to correlate strongly with their respective quality; specific electricity demand is up to 45% higher for low‐quality scrap than for high‐quality scrap. Given that chemical compositions of scrap grades are highly variable and often unknown, average concentrations are determined using linear regression with scrap input as the predictors and the amounts of the investigated elements in liquid steel as the dependent variable. The lowest quality (highest copper and tin concentrations) and the highest electricity demand in the EAF are found for scrap recovered from bottom ashes of municipal solid waste incineration. Although even with low‐quality scrap input steel recycling is environmentally superior to primary steel production, the optimization potential in terms of energy efficiency and resource recovery, for example, through pretreatment, seems to be substantial.     

Geomorphic principles of terrain organization and vegetation gradients

Abstract. Moisture and nutrient gradients consistently explain much of the variation in plant species composition and abundance, but these gradients are not spatially explicit and only reveal species responses to resource levels. This study links these abstract gradients to quantitative, spatial models of hill‐slope assembly. A gradient analysis in the mixed‐wood boreal forest demonstrates that patterns of upland vegetation distribution are correlated to soil moisture and nutrient gradients. Variation in species abundance with time since the last fire is removed from the gradient analysis in order to avoid confounding the physical environment gradients. The physical‐environment gradients are related to qualitative positions on the hill slope i.e. crest, mid‐slope, bottom‐slope. However, hill‐slope shape can be quantitatively described and compared by fitting allometric equations to the slope profiles. Using these equations, we show that hill‐slope profiles on similar surficial materials have similar parameters, despite coming from widely separated locations. We then quantitatively link the moisture and nutrient gradients to the equations. Moisture and nutrients significantly increase as distance down‐slope from the ridgeline increases. Corresponding vegetation composition changes too. These relationships characterize the general pattern of vegetation change down most hill slopes in the area. Since hill slopes are a universal feature of all landscapes, these principles may characterize landscape scale spatial patterns of vegetation in many environments.     

Environmental Assessment of Wood‐Based Biofuel Production and Consumption Scenarios in Norway

In Norway, the boreal forest offers a considerable resource base, and emerging technologies may soon make it commercially viable to convert these resources into low‐carbon biofuels. Decision makers are required to make informed decisions about the environmental implications of wood biofuels today that will affect the medium‐ and long‐term development of a wood‐based biofuels industry in Norway. We first assess the national forest‐derived resource base for use in biofuel production. A set of biomass conversion technologies is then chosen and evaluated for scenarios addressing biofuel production and consumption by select industry sectors. We then apply an environmentally extended, mixed‐unit, two‐region input?output model to quantify the global warming mitigation and fossil fuel displacement potentials of two biofuel production and consumption scenarios in Norway up to 2050. We find that a growing resource base, when used to produce advanced biofuels, results in cumulative global warming mitigation potentials of between 58 and 83 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents avoided (Mt‐CO₂‐eq.‐avoided) in Norway, depending on the biofuel scenario. In recent years, however, the domestic pulp and paper industry—due to increasing exposure to international competition, capacity reductions, and increasing production costs—has been in decline. In the face of a declining domestic pulp and paper industry, imported pulp and paper products are required to maintain the demand for these goods and thus the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the exporting region embodied in Norway's pulp and paper imports reduce the systemwide benefit in terms of avoided greenhouse gas emissions by 27%.     

Geostrategic Supply Risk and Economic Importance as Drivers for Implementation of Industrial Ecology Measures in a Nitrogen Fertilizer Production Company

Among other concerns, safeguarding the supply chains of raw materials is an important task for industrial companies. Therefore, not surprisingly, the number of scientific publications concerning the evaluation of resource criticality has increased in recent years. However, it was noticed that currently published methodologies are too complex to be applied by industrial companies on a daily basis. For this reason, the need to develop a methodology that would allow not only assessing resource criticality, but could also be integrated into widely applied methodological frameworks as an additional driver to improve resource efficiency was identified. Geostrategic supply risk and economic importance were chosen as key indicators to analyze and assess relative resource criticality. The developed methodology was field tested by applying it to a resource‐intensive nitrogen fertilizer production company. Five scenarios for resource efficiency improvements, consisting of cleaner production and industrial symbiosis measures, were investigated. If all the proposed measures were implemented, consumption of natural gas would decrease by 3.552 million cubic meters per year (0.3% of the total consumption). However, not all identified measures contribute to a reduction of the overall criticality of resources for the production company. Nevertheless, the integration of criticality assessments into the widely applied methodologies for development and implementation of resource efficiency innovations is a valuable addition and should be included in the analysis for sustainable innovations and development.     

The Dematerialization Potential of the Australian Economy

In this article we test the long‐term dematerialization potential for Australia in terms of materials, energy, and water use as well as CO₂ emissions by introducing concrete targets for major sectors. Major improvements in the construction and housing, transport and mobility, and food and nutrition sectors in the Australian economy, if coupled with significant reductions in the resource export sectors, would substantially improve the current material, energy, and emission intensive pattern of Australia's production and consumption system. Using the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework we model all system interactions to understand the contributions of large‐scale changes in technology, infrastructure, and lifestyle to decoupling the economy from the environment. The modeling shows a considerable reduction in natural resource use, while energy and water use decrease to a much lesser extent because a reduction in natural resource consumption creates a trade‐off in energy use. It also shows that trade and economic growth may continue, but at a reduced rate compared with a business‐as‐usual scenario. The findings of our modeling are discussed in light of the large body of literature on dematerialization, eco‐efficiency, and rebound effects that may occur when efficiency is increased. We argue that Australia cannot rely on incremental efficiency gains but has to undergo a sustainability transition to achieve a low carbon future to keep in line with the international effort to avoid climate change and resource use conflicts. We touch upon the institutional changes that would be required to guide a sustainability transition in the Australian economy, such as an emission trading scheme.     

A Material Flow‐based Approach to Enhance Resource Efficiency in Production and Recycling Networks

Resource and energy efficiency are key strategies for production and recycling networks. They can contribute to more sustainable industrial production and can help cope with challenges such as competition, rising resource and energy prices, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and scarce and expensive landfill space. In pursuit of these objectives, further enhancements of single processes are often technologically sophisticated and expensive due to past achievements that have brought the processes closer to technical optima. Nevertheless, the potential for network‐wide advancements may exist. Methods are required to identify and assess the potential for promising resource and energy efficiency measures from technical, economic, and ecological perspectives. This article presents an approach for a material flow‐based techno‐economic as well as ecological analysis and assessment of resource efficiency measures in production and recycling networks. Based on thermodynamic process models of different production and recycling processes, a material and energy flow model of interlinked production and recycling processes on the level of chemical compounds is developed. The model can be used to improve network‐wide resource efficiency by analyzing and assessing measures in scenario and sensitivity analyses. A necessary condition for overcoming technical and economic barriers for implementing such measures can be fulfilled by identifying strategies that appear technologically feasible and economically and ecologically favorable. An exemplary application to a production and recycling network of the German steel and zinc industry is presented. From a methodological point of view, the approach shows one way of introducing thermodynamics and further technological aspects into industrial planning and assessment.     

产业生态系统资源代谢分析方法

产业生态系统是由企业群、资源及环境组成的社会-经济-环境复合生态系统。资源代谢是其功能运行的重要保障。资源代谢在时间和空间尺度上的耗竭及阻滞是造成严重生态环境问题的主要原因。根据生态学原理,运用物质流分析手段解析了产业生态系统的物质流、能流及资金流结构,构建了产业生态系统资源代谢分析模型,提出了资源输入-使用-输出-循环共生四方面的资源代谢分析指标体系和基于模糊综合分析的资源代谢问题树分析方法。在此基础上提出了基于循环共生网络结构模型的生态管理模式。以期为产业资源的生态管理提供方法支撑。     

Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity: Forty Years of Evidence

The international industrial ecology (IE) research community and United Nations (UN) Environment have, for the first time, agreed on an authoritative and comprehensive data set for global material extraction and trade covering 40 years of global economic activity and natural resource use. This new data set is becoming the standard information source for decision making at the UN in the context of the post‐2015 development agenda, which acknowledges the strong links between sustainable natural resource management, economic prosperity, and human well‐being. Only if economic growth and human development can become substantially decoupled from accelerating material use, waste, and emissions can the tensions inherent in the Sustainable Development Goals be resolved and inclusive human development be achieved. In this paper, we summarize the key findings of the assessment study to make the IE research community aware of this new global research resource. The global results show a massive increase in materials extraction from 22 billion tonnes (Bt) in 1970 to 70 Bt in 2010, and an acceleration in material extraction since 2000. This acceleration has occurred at a time when global population growth has slowed and global economic growth has stalled. The global surge in material extraction has been driven by growing wealth and consumption and accelerating trade. A material footprint perspective shows that demand for materials has grown even in the wealthiest parts of the world. Low‐income countries have benefited least from growing global resource availability and have continued to deliver primary materials to high‐income countries while experiencing few improvements in their domestic material living standards. Material efficiency, the amount of primary materials required per unit of economic activity, has declined since around 2000 because of a shift of global production from very material‐efficient economies to less‐efficient ones. This global trend of recoupling economic activity with material use, driven by industrialization and urbanization in the global South, most notably Asia, has negative impacts on a suite of environmental and social issues, including natural resource depletion, climate change, loss of biodiversity, and uneven economic development. This research is a good example of the IE research community providing information for evidence‐based policy making on the global stage and testament to the growing importance of IE research in achieving global sustainable development.     

基于生态效率的辽宁省循环经济分析

生态效率与循环经济相辅相成。基于区域生态效率评价是考量区域循环经济的重要内容,又基于目前对于循环经济与生态效率结合的实证研究相对较少,因此,以生态效率理论为基础,对我国最早开展循环经济的试点省份——辽宁省的循环经济发展作以综合衡量。通过生态效率度量模型与循环经济度量模型,以辽宁省1990～2008年数据为基础,运用基于熵权的TOPSIS方法,分别计算了19a间辽宁省各年的资源效率、环境效率、生态效率,进而综合评价了辽宁省循环经济发展轨迹。研究表明：在19a间,辽宁省生态效率总体呈现波动上升态势,经历了传统经济发展模式——末端治理模式——循环经济模式的转变;19a间,辽宁省循环经济发展状态总体上处于循环性不断增强的状态,即经济发展的同时,环境压力不断减小。研究证明了辽宁省2002年实行循环经济以来取得了明显成效,对全国尤其是东北地区发展循环经济,走新型工业化道路具有重要的示范意义。     

Land use changes could modify future negative effects of climate change on old‐growth forest indicator species

Aim

Climate change is expected to have major impacts on terrestrial biodiversity at all ecosystem levels, including reductions in species‐level distribution and abundance. We aim to test the extent to which land use management, such as setting‐aside forest from production, could reduce climate‐induced biodiversity impacts for specialist species over large geographical gradients.

Location

Sweden.

Methods

We applied ensembles of species distribution models based on citizen science data for six species of red‐listed old‐forest indicator fungi confined to spruce dead wood. We tested the effect on species habitat suitabilities of alternative climate change scenarios and varying amounts of forest set‐aside from production over the coming century.

Results

With 3.6% of forest area set‐aside from production and assuming no climate change, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to increase in response to maturing spruce in set‐aside forest. However, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to decline under climate change scenario RCP4.5 (intermediate–low emissions), with even greater declines projected under RCP 8.5 (high emissions). Increasing the amount of forest set‐aside to 16% resulted in significant increases in overall habitat suitability, with one species showing an increase. A further increase to 32% forest set‐aside resulted in considerably more positive trends, with three of six species increasing.

Main conclusions

There is interspecific variation in the importance of future macroclimate and resource availability on species occurrence. However, large‐scale conservation measures, such as increasing resource availability through setting aside forest from production, could reduce future negative effects from climate change, and early investment in conservation is likely to reduce the future negative impacts of climate change on specialist species.     

Variation of energy flow and greenhouse gas emissions in vineyards located in Natura 2000 sites

A combination of agro-environmental indicators and energy analysis of a production system, such as vineyards located in Natura 2000 sites, for which little is known, may be a useful tool to decide best farm management practices with low greenhouse gas emissions. In randomly selected vineyards at six sites of Natura 2000 network in Cyprus, we evaluated the energy flow and the greenhouse gas emissions. Hierarchical cluster analysis using production coefficients and a topographic variable (altitude) was used to detect clusters of the studied vineyards. Three groups were revealed. Group 1 (eight vineyards) with the lowest energy inputs, followed by Group 2 (three vineyards) with intermediate inputs and Group 3 (three vineyards) with the highest energy inputs. Altitude, fertilizers, labour, fuel and transportation had the greatest contribution on cluster formation. Non-parametric comparisons concerning 28 indicators showed that ten indicators (total energy inputs, renewable and non-renewable energy inputs, fruit energy outputs, shoot energy outputs, total energy outputs, fruit production, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) were significantly higher in high energy input vineyards (Group 3) and three (energy use for renewable inputs, energy productivity and energy fruit efficiency) in low energy input vineyards (Group 1). Five indicators (energy use for fuel, transportation and non-renewable inputs, and energy efficiency for (shoot + fruit) outputs and renewable energy inputs) were significantly lower in Group 3 and two (intensity and non-renewable energy consumption) in Group 1. Similarities and/or dissimilarities among vineyards in Natura 2000 sites were related to altitude, production coefficients and local farming practices. These mixed results stress the importance of taking both local management indicators and vineyard topography into consideration when developing future agri-environment schemes, and suggest that local–regional interactions may affect Natura 2000 sites services and functions. It is important that EU agricultural policies are complemented by national–regional interventions in order to regulate the fragile balance between Natura 2000 sites and agriculture, reducing non-renewable energy inputs as percent of total energy inputs.     

Life Cycle Impacts and Benefits of Wood along the Value Chain: The Case of Switzerland

Sustainable use of wood may contribute to coping with energy and material resource challenges. The goal of this study is to increase knowledge of the environmental effects of wood use by analyzing the complete value chain of all wooden goods produced or consumed in Switzerland. We start from a material flow analysis of current wood use in Switzerland. Environmental impacts related to the material flows are evaluated using life cycle assessment–based environmental indicators. Regarding climate change, we find an overall average benefit of 0.5 tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent per cubic meter of wood used. High environmental benefits are often achieved when replacing conventional heat production and energy‐consuming materials in construction and furniture. The environmental performance of wood is, however, highly dependent on its use and environmental indicators. To exploit the mitigation potential of wood, we recommend to (1) apply its use where there are high substitution benefits like the replacement of fossil fuels for energy or energy‐intensive building materials, (2) take appropriate measures to minimize negative effects like particulate matter emissions, and (3) keep a systems perspective to weigh effects like substitution and cascading against each other in a comprehensive manner. The results can provide guidance for further in‐depth studies and prospective analyses of wood‐use scenarios.     

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970–2050

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land‐use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya–Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop‐ and livestock‐production, respectively. Except for the energy‐use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business‐as‐usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20–55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2–14.5 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food‐system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.