Is climate change causing the range contraction of Cape Rock-jumpers (Chaetops frenatus)?

Species distribution models often suggest strong links between climate and species' distribution boundaries and project large distribution shifts in response to climate change. However, attributing distribution shifts to climate change requires more than correlative models. One idea is to examine correlates of the processes that cause distribution shifts, namely colonization and local extinction, by using dynamic occupancy models. The Cape Rock-jumper (Chaetops frenatus) has disappeared over most of its distribution where temperatures are the highest. We used dynamic occupancy models to analyse Cape Rock-jumper distribution with respect to climate (mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter), vegetation (proportion of natural vegetation, fynbos) and land-use type (protected areas). Detection/non-detection data were collected over two phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP): 1987–1991 (SABAP1) and 2008–2014 (SABAP2). The model described the contraction of the Cape Rock-jumper's distribution between SABAP1 and SABAP2 well. Occupancy probability during SABAP1 increased with the proportion of fynbos and protected area per grid cell, and decreased with increases in mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter. Mean extinction probability increased with mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter, although the associated confidence intervals were wide. Nonetheless, our results showed a clear correlation between climate and the distribution boundaries of the Cape Rock-jumper, and in particular, the species' aversion for higher temperatures. The data were less conclusive on whether the observed range contraction was linked to climate change or not. Examining the processes underlying distribution shifts requires large datasets and should lead to a better understanding of the drivers of these shifts.     

Climate,not Aboriginal landscape burning,controlled the historical demography and distribution of fire-sensitive conifer populations across Australia

Climate and fire are the key environmental factors that shape the distribution and demography of plant populations in Australia. Because of limited palaeoecological records in this arid continent, however, it is unclear as to which factor impacted vegetation more strongly, and what were the roles of fire regime changes owing to human activity and megafaunal extinction (since ca 50 kya). To address these questions, we analysed historical genetic, demographic and distributional changes in a widespread conifer species complex that paradoxically grows in fire-prone regions, yet is very sensitive to fire. Genetic demographic analysis showed that the arid populations experienced strong bottlenecks, consistent with range contractions during the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 20 kya) predicted by species distribution models. In southern temperate regions, the population sizes were estimated to have been mostly stable, followed by some expansion coinciding with climate amelioration at the end of the last glacial period. By contrast, in the flammable tropical savannahs, where fire risk is the highest, demographic analysis failed to detect significant population bottlenecks. Collectively, these results suggest that the impact of climate change overwhelmed any modifications to fire regimes by Aboriginal landscape burning and megafaunal extinction, a finding that probably also applies to other fire-prone vegetation across Australia.     

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy

In Italy, during the course of the past century to the present-day, measles incidence underwent a remarkable decreasing trend that started well before the introduction of the national immunization programme. In this work, we aim at examining to what extent both the demographic transition, characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates over time, and the vaccination programme are responsible for the observed epidemiological pattern. Making use of a non-stationary, age-structured disease transmission model, we show that in the pre-vaccination era, from 1901 to 1982, the decline in birth rates has resulted in a drastic decrease in the effective transmission rate, which in turn has determined a declining trend of measles incidence (from 25.2 to 10.3 infections per 1000 individuals). However, since 1983, vaccination appears to have become the major contributing factor in the decrease of measles incidence, which otherwise would have remained stable as a consequence of the nearly constant birth rates. This led to a remarkable decrease in the effective transmission rate, to a level well below the critical threshold for disease persistence. These findings call for the adoption of epidemiological models, which deviate the age structure from stationary equilibrium solutions, to better understand the biology of infectious diseases and evaluate immunization programmes.     

Sailing through the Late Pleistocene: unusual historical demography of an East Asian endemic, the Chinese Hwamei (Leucodioptron canorum canorum), during the last glacial period

Pleistocene climate fluctuations shaped the patterns of genetic diversity observed in extant species. In contrast to Europe and North America where the effects of recent glacial cycles on genetic diversity have been well studied, the genetic legacy of the Late Pleistocene for East Asia, a region of great topographical complexity and presumably milder historical climate, remains poorly understood. We analysed 3.86 kb of the mitochondrial genome of 186 Chinese Hwamei birds, Leucodioptron canorum canorum , and found that contrary to the conventional expectation of population decline during cold periods (stadials), the demographic history of this species shows continuous population growth since the penultimate glacial period (about 170 000 years ago). Refugia were identified in the south, coastal regions, and northern inland areas, implying that topographic complexity played a substantial role in providing suitable habitats for the Chinese Hwamei during cold periods. Intermittent gene flow between these refugia during the warmer periods (interstadials) might have resulted in a large effective population of this bird through the last glacial period.     

Empirical Modelling of the Population Dynamics of a Small Population of the Threespine Stickleback, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gasterosteus aculeatus</Emphasis>

Synopsis We estimated the abundance of a small population of threespine stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, by mark-recapture over a 21 year period. Length-frequency analysis showed that the population in October consisted almost entirely of young-of-the-year. The per capita annual rate of increase was inversely related to abundance in October. Time series analysis suggested the presence of a cycle of abundance with a period of about 6 years. There was a significant inverse relationship between abundance in year t and in year t + 3. A simple, empirical, deterministic model based on this inverse relationship and run for 100 years predicted that population abundance showed damped oscillations leading to a stable abundance. When a stochastic component was added to the model, seven of 10 runs included a component with a period of about 6 years. These simulations suggest that the dynamics of this population are driven by an interaction between a deterministic (density-dependent) component and a stochastic component. We compare these results with time series of abundance of threespine stickleback obtained from the Thames Estuary in south-east England and Loch Lomond in Scotland.     

Population cycles in microtines: The senescence hypothesis

Summary The cause of population cycles in microtines (voles and lemmings) remains an enigma. I propose a new solution to this problem based on a crucial feature of microtine biology, shifts in age structure, that has been ignored until now. Empirical evidence indicates that age structure must shift markedly towards older animals during declines because of three characteristics of the previous peak year: a shortened breeding season, total replacement of the breeding population from peak to decline and density-dependent social inhibition of maturation of young. Declines become inevitable as populations composed of older animals survive and reproduce poorly because of the effects of senescence, possibly interacting with the experiences of peak density and I present both theoretical and empirical evidence for this hypothesis. Although a variety of physiological systems deteriorate with aging, I focus on a crucial one — the inability of older animals to effectively maintain homeostasis in the face of environmental challenges because of a progressive deterioration in the endocrine feedback mechanisms involved in the hippocampal—hypothalamic—pituitary—adrenal axis. Microtine populations will not exhibit cycles where age structure shifts are prevented owing to extrinsic factors such as intense predation. Six testable predictions are made that can falsify this hypothesis.     

Genetic viability and population history of the giant panda, putting an end to the "evolutionary dead end"?

The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is currently threatened by habitat loss, fragmentation, and human persecution. Its dietary specialization, habitat isolation, and reproductive constraints have led to a perception that this is a species at an "evolutionary dead end," destined for deterministic extinction in the modern world. Here we examine this perception by a comprehensive investigation of its genetic diversity, population structure, and demographic history across its geographic range. We present analysis of 655 base pairs of mitochondrial (mt) control region (CR) DNA and 10 microsatellite loci for samples from its 5 extant mountain populations (Qinling, Minshan, Qionglai, Liangshan, and Lesser Xiangling). Surprisingly, extant populations display average to high levels of CR and microsatellite diversity compared with other bear species. Genetic differentiation among populations was significant in most cases but was markedly higher between Qinling and the other mountain ranges, suggesting, minimally, that the Qinling population should comprise a separate management unit for conservation purposes. Recent demographic inference using microsatellite markers demonstrated a clear genetic signature for population decline starting several thousands years ago or even further back in the past, and being accelerated and enhanced by the expansion of human populations. Importantly, these data suggest that the panda is not a species at an evolutionary "dead end," but in common with other large carnivores, has suffered demographically at the hands of human pressure. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on the restoration and protection of wild habitat and the maintenance of the currently substantial regional genetic diversity, through active management of disconnected populations.     

Comparative density,demography, and ranging behavior of Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus) in marginal and prime conifer habitats

A semiisolated study population of 162 Barbary macaques (six groups) inhabiting the Ghomaran fir forests of the Moroccan Rif mountains has a density of 6.73 individuals/km ². The adult sex ratio is 0.725, and immatures comprise 46.9% of the population. Births are seasonal, occurring from April to June, and the adult female birth rate is 0.58 per annum. Mortality appears relatively low in all age classes until old age. Group size ranges from 12 to 59 individuals, with a median value of 24. Home-range sizes vary between 3 and 9 km², with a mean of 7.2 km². Home-range overlap is approximately 80%. On the basis of macaque density, conifer density, and herding competition from domestic animals, the Ghomaran environment can be considered “marginal” compared to the Moyen Atlas. Despite the marginal habitat of the Ghomaran population, it is surprisingly similar in demographic characteristics to a Barbary macaque population in the Moyen Atlas. Two characteristics of the population dynamics in the Ghomara differentiate it from the former. (1) The mean home range is five times larger in the Ghomara, roughly inversely proportional to the sixfold decrease in macaque density, confirming Caldecott’s (1986) principle that, in macaque species, range size adjustments are a primary proximate response to poor-quality habitat. (2) Smaller groups in the marginal habitat of the Ghomara appear to have better rates of growth than small groups in prime habitat. This may result from an overall decreased home-range defensibility in marginal habitat (larger home ranges), resulting in an ecological and demographic release of small groups from the levels of intergroup competition they would normally experience in prime habitat.     

Human and cattle population changes in deltaic West Bengal,India between 1977–1987

In 1967–1970, 3.81 km² of a densely populated deltaic area of Hooghly district in West Bengal, India was intensively studied. This same area was resurveyed in 1977 and 1987. From 1977–1987, the human population has increased 10.1%, while the number of households has increased 25%. The total number of children below 10 years of age has diminished. The cattle have increased 26.5%. The number of working-age male cattle has dropped significantly with reliance, primarily on hand tractor power for field cultivation. The number of female cattle has increased substantially. Artificial insemination and the use of temperate breeds of bulls have had an obvious impact. Improvements in the general environment were observed.This research was supported by funding from a 1986–87 Fulbright Award. The excellent administrative support of the Fulbright staff in both the New Delhi and Calcutta offices of the United States Educational Foundation in India (USEFI) is acknowledged. Similar assistance was provided in the upland study area by Dr. B. R. Chatterjee and his entire family at one time or another. The following field workers were cooperative and discharged their duties with enthusiasm and consideration: Prasanta K. Garang, Ashim K. Ghatak, and Tarun Malik. My wife provided valuable analysis of the initial data in India. Teri Skelton and Gina McKinney supplied the secretarial skills. Dr. N. C. Nag of Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya was my official collaborator on the project and I appreciated his assistance and direction in many areas.     

Human and cattle population changes in upland West Bental,India between 1977–1978 and 1987

Six villages in upland West Bengal, India were resurveyed in 1987 and the results compared with the data from a larger area studied in 1977–1978. There has been a 6.4% increase in the human population, but the number of households has decreased 1.7%. The cattle population has increased 14.4% with male cattle accounting for the bulk of the increase. A crossbreeding program implemented 8 years ago has had virtually no beneficial effects. Other observations on the general welfare of humans and domestic animals are presented.This research was funded by a 1986–1987 Fulbright Award.