SURVIVAL ANALYSIS TO ESTIMATE SENSORY SHELF LIFE USING ACCEPTABILITY SCORES

ABSTRACT

In the present study, survival analysis was applied on consumers' acceptability scores, focusing the shelf‐life risk on the consumers disliking the product. Shelf life was estimated as the time necessary to reach a fixed percentage of consumers disliking the product, that is, the percentage of consumers scoring the product's overall acceptability below 6 in a 9‐point hedonic scale. In the present work, this methodology was applied to estimate the sensory shelf life of whole pan bread and alfajores. Shelf lives estimated considering 50% of the consumers disliking the product were shorter than those estimated considering consumers' rejection to consume. These results suggest that a proportion of consumers might dislike the sample but still answer “yes” when asked if they would consume the product at their homes. This could be attributed to the fact that when consumers are asked whether they would consume the product, they might think about consuming it after being stored at their homes. In this situation, consumers might be more tolerant toward sensory defects because they do not want to discard the product.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

Sensory shelf life can be estimated using survival analysis considering the percentage of consumers disliking the product. This methodology seems to be a conservative criterion in order to assure the product's quality throughout its storage.     

Prevalence and level of Listeria monocytogenes and other Listeria sp. in ready-to-eat minimally processed and refrigerated vegetables

Minimally processed and refrigerated vegetables can be contaminated with Listeria species bacteria including Listeria monocytogenes due to extensive handling during processing or by cross contamination from the processing environment. The objective of this study was to examine the microbiological quality of ready-to-eat minimally processed and refrigerated vegetables from supermarkets in Osijek, Croatia. 100 samples of ready-to-eat vegetables collected from different supermarkets in Osijek, Croatia, were analyzed for presence of Listeria species and Listeria monocytogenes. The collected samples were cut iceberg lettuces (24 samples), other leafy vegetables (11 samples), delicatessen salads (23 samples), cabbage salads (19 samples), salads from mixed (17 samples) and root vegetables (6 samples). Listeria species was found in 20 samples (20 %) and Listeria monocytogenes was detected in only 1 sample (1 %) of cut red cabbage (less than 100 CFU/g). According to Croatian and EU microbiological criteria these results are satisfactory. However, the presence of Listeria species and Listeria monocytogenes indicates poor hygiene quality. The study showed that these products are often improperly labeled, since 24 % of analyzed samples lacked information about shelf life, and 60 % of samples lacked information about storage conditions. With regard to these facts, cold chain abruption with extended use after expiration date is a probable scenario. Therefore, the microbiological risk for consumers of ready-to-eat minimally processed and refrigerated vegetables is not completely eliminated.     

SHELF-LIFE ESTIMATION OF APPLE-BABY FOOD

The aim of the present work was to study the evolution of the color of an apple‐baby food and to estimate its sensory shelf life. Samples of apple‐baby food stored at 25C were analyzed using trained assessors and a consumer panel. A zero‐order reaction kinetics was found for the evolution of sensory color with storage time. Color was highly correlated with consumers' rejection percentage and overall acceptability, which indicates that consumers consider this attribute when deciding to accept or reject this product and in assigning their acceptability scores. Using this correlation, the sensory cutoff point for color, corresponding to a 25% consumer rejection, was calculated. Sensory shelf life was estimated using consumer data. Sensory shelf life estimated by survival analysis was in agreement with that calculated considering an acceptability limit of 6.0 in a 9‐point hedonic scale.     

SENSORY SHELF-LIFE ESTIMATION OF ALFAJOR BY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS

Survival analysis methodology was used to estimate the shelf life of alfajor (a chocolate‐coated individually wrapped cake) at 20 and 35C by using results obtained from consumers when asked if they would accept or reject samples with different storage times. Sensory acceptability (measured by consumers), off‐flavor (measured by a trained panel) and moisture content were linearly related to time. These correlations were used to estimate values at the shelf‐life times calculated for 25 and 50% rejection probability. Survival analysis provided the following shelf‐life estimation: 74 days at 20C and 33 days at 35C for a 25% of rejection, 87 days at 20C and 39 days at 35C for a 50% of rejection. An alfajor stored at 20C having an acceptability value below 4.9 (1–9 hedonic scale) and off‐flavor intensity above 5.3 (0–10 scale) would be rejected by 25% of the consumers. Chemical data were not good shelf‐life predictors.     

Environmental analysis of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior

This study analyzed the environmental impacts of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior to assist packaging designers in making environmentally conscious decisions. Packaging can be functionalized to prevent food loss and waste (FLW), for example, extending the expiration date and apportioning the package size, but it can generate additional environmental impacts from changes in food and packaging production. Previous studies assessed additional impacts from packaging production; however, the effects of packaging functionalization are yet to be connected with food production and consumer behavior. To examine the effect of functionalization on these aspects, we analyzed packaging‐derived changes in food production for milk and cabbage products. The case study compared products with functionalized packaging that permits a longer expiration date or a smaller portion size to their base‐case products. Our results showed that the packaging‐derived changes increased the global warming potential (GWP) of food production more than other processes did. Thus, changes in food production weakened the effectiveness of the packaging functionalization to decrease the GWP. Moreover, the analysis of consumer behavior scenarios showed that consumers’ perception of the expiration date decisively influences the effectiveness of packaging functionalization. When consumers discarded food after the expiration date, provided they consumed in small quantities, the packaging functionalization reduced FLW. From the scenario analysis, we identified appropriate combinations of packaging functionalization and consumer behaviors to effectively decrease total GWP. With our expanded analysis, packaging designers can understand the effectiveness of their decisions on the product life cycle in reducing FLW and environmental impacts.     

Shelf-life extension of gilthead seabream fillets by osmotic treatment and antimicrobial agents

Aims: The objectives of the study were to evaluate the effect of selected antimicrobial agents on the shelf life of osmotically pretreated gilthead seabream and to establish reliable kinetic equations for shelf‐life determination validated in dynamic conditions. Methods and Results: Fresh gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) fillets were osmotically treated with 50% high dextrose equivalent maltodextrin (HDM, DE 47) plus 5% NaCl and 0·5% carvacrol, 0·5% glucono‐δ‐lactone or 1% Citrox (commercial antimicrobial mix). Untreated and treated slices were aerobically packed and stored isothermally (0–15°C). Microbial growth and quality‐related chemical indices were modelled as functions of temperature. Models were validated at dynamic storage conditions. Osmotic pretreatment with the use of antimicrobials led to significant shelf‐life extension of fillets, in terms of microbial growth and organoleptic deterioration. Conclusions: The shelf life was 7 days for control samples at 5°C. The osmotic pretreatment with carvacrol, glucono‐δ‐lactone and Citrox allowed for shelf‐life extension by 8, 10 and 5 days at 5°C, respectively. Significance and Impact of the Study: The results of the study show the potential of adding carvacrol, glucono‐δ‐lactone or Citrox in the osmotic solution to extend the shelf life and improve commercial value of chilled osmotically pretreated fish products. The developed models can be a reliable tool for predicting the shelf life of fresh or minimally processed gilthead seabream fillets in the real chill chain.     

Assessing distributions of estimated drug shelf lives in stability analysis

A stability study is usually conducted to ensure that a drug product can meet the approved specifications prior to its expiration dating period (shelf life). Several approaches for determination of drug shelf life assuming random batches have been proposed. In this paper, we examine sampling distributions of the estimated shelf lives proposed by Shao and Chow (1994, Biometrics 50, 753-763). An application to some stability data from the pharmaceutical industry is presented.     

Behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes in packaged water buffalo mozzarella cheese

Aims: The aim of the study was to evaluate the behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes in the conditioning liquid of packaged water buffalo mozzarella cheese (WBMC). Methods and Results: The conditioning liquid was contaminated with L. monocytogenes, and the contaminated samples were stored at four different storage temperatures: 5 and 10°C for 22 days; 20°C for 9 days; 20°C for 3 days and then at 5°C for 6 days. The results showed that L. monocytogenes concentration decreased when contaminated samples were stored at 5°C. When WBMC was stored at 20°C and at 10°C, L. monocytogenes started to grow after a lag phase of 3 and 10 days, respectively. When samples were stored at variable temperature conditions, L. monocytogenes numbers showed a lag phase of 5 days. Conclusions: Use of a conditioning liquid characterized by acidity and a correct storage temperature is able to counteract pathogen replication during shelf life. A high concentration of lactic acid bacteria was associated with effective control of L. monocytogenes but the role of lactic acid bacteria in WBMC conditioning liquid requires further investigation. Significance and Impact of the Study: According to European regulations, food producers should be able to justify decision‐making on the shelf life assigned to their products, taking into account reasonable storage conditions and use by consumers. The results of the trial yielded information for producers of WBMC and similar cheeses for decision‐making on product shelf life.     

不同温度、气体微环境对红托竹荪干品储藏品质的影响

本研究针对红托竹荪干品在储藏过程中易发生褐变、降低商品性问题,探究了不同储藏条件(温度、气体微环境)对红托竹荪干品储藏品质的影响。以红托竹荪干品为原材料,考察了在气体微环境(空气、N₂、CO₂和脱氧)和不同储藏温度(5、25和45 ℃)下红托竹荪干品储藏品质的动态变化。在60 d的储藏期内,所有样品的褐变指数、剪切力、多酚氧化酶、过氧化氢酶、总酚、还原糖和5-羟甲基糠醛含量均增加,游离氨基酸、白度值、复水比均降低。与25、45 ℃相比,以上指标在5 ℃条件下均表现最优,5 ℃储藏条件下呈味氨基酸和挥发性成分指标更接近于0 d;在不同气体微环境比较下,CO₂储藏环境下干品品质保持最好,通过综合评分得出5 ℃低温结合CO₂充气条件下干品品质最优,其次为N₂结合5 ℃低温。结合经济成本,5 ℃低温结合CO₂或N₂充气可以作为红托竹荪干品延长货架期的推荐储藏技术。     

High-pressure processing – effects on microbial food safety and food quality

High-pressure processing (HPP) is a nonthermal process capable of inactivating and eliminating pathogenic and food spoilage microorganisms. This novel technology has enormous potential in the food industry, controlling food spoilage, improving food safety and extending product shelf life while retaining the characteristics of fresh, preservative-free, minimally processed foods. As with other food processing methods, such as thermal processing, HPP has somewhat limited applications as it cannot be universally applied to all food types, such as some dairy and animal products and shelf-stable low-acid foods. Herein, we discuss the effects of high-pressure processing on microbial food safety and, to a lesser degree, food quality.     

Microbial spoilage and formation of biogenic amines in fresh and thawed modified atmosphere-packed salmon (Salmo salar) at 2 degrees C

AIMS: To evaluate the microbial spoilage, formation of biogenic amines and shelf life of chilled fresh and frozen/thawed salmon packed in a modified atmosphere and stored at 2 degrees C. METHODS AND RESULTS: The dominating microflora, formation of biogenic amines and shelf life were studied in two series of storage trials with naturally contaminated fresh and thawed modified atmosphere-packed (MAP) salmon at 2 degrees C. Photobacterium phosphoreum dominated the spoilage microflora of fresh MAP salmon at more than 10(6) cfu g(-1) and the activity of this specific spoilage organism (SSO) limited the shelf life of the product to ca 14 and 21 d in the two experiments. Despite the high levels of P. phosphoreum, less than 20 mg kg(-1) histamine was observed in fresh MAP salmon prior to sensory spoilage. Freezing eliminated P. phosphoreum and extended the shelf life of MAP salmon at 2 degrees C by 1-2 weeks. Carnobacterium piscicola dominated the spoilage microflora of thawed MAP salmon and probably produced the ca 40 mg kg(-1) tyramine detected in this product at the end of its shelf life. CONCLUSIONS: Photobacterium phosphoreum dominated the spoilage microflora of fresh MAP salmon but produced only small amounts of biogenic amines in this product. The elimination of P. phosphoreum by freezing allowed this bacteria to be identified as the SSO in fresh MAP salmon. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The identification of P. phosphoreum as the SSO in fresh MAP salmon facilitates the development of methods to determine and predict the shelf life of this product, as previously shown with fresh MAP cod.     

FRESH-CUT ANNURCA APPLES: ACCEPTABILITY STUDY AND SHELF-LIFE DETERMINATION

To establish the likelihood of purchase and acceptability level of new fresh-cut apples, the responses of two categories of consumers, children and adults, were evaluated. The effect of storage time on acceptability was investigated and the shelf life of fresh-cut apples was determined by using a Weibull hazard model.
The samples were distributed at different storage time (from second to fifth day) at the Science Museum of Naples as part of an educational program for children to evaluate the likelihood of buying and the acceptability level of the product. The data were collected over 5 weeks, and the test was performed in 2,421 children and 224 adults. The product was distributed at the University of Naples at different storage time (time 0 to 10 days) to perform the Weibull test using 63 consumers.
The adults and children appreciated the product, and the adults were generally willing to buy it. The Weibull analysis proved an appropriate method to evaluate product shelf life, which was estimated at 7.5 days at 4C.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This study contributes to enhance the competitiveness of a traditional food as Protected Geographical Indication Annurca apples. In fact, an attractive way to improve the consumption of this variety of apple is to market it as a ready-to-eat product. Also, the research allows for a better understanding of the children's acceptability level of new fresh-cut apples in order to improve the intake of apples among primary schoolchildren. In fact, an interesting way to increase the children's consumption of fruit is to distribute it at school level and also to increase the convenience for children. Finally, the fact that the product was distributed to the Science Museum of Naples can be considered as a premarket test for a new product launch.     

Potentials for prolonging shelf‐life of platelets by near infrared low‐level light

Platelets are uniquely stored at room temperature, during which they gradually loss their quality owing to deteriorating functions of mitochondria over time. Given the well‐documented beneficial effect of near infrared low‐level light (LLL) on mitochondrial functions, we explored a potential for LLL to protect mitochondrial function and extend the shelf‐life of platelets beyond the current 5 days. We found that exposure of a platelet‐containing storage bag to 830 nm light‐emitting diode (LED) light at 0.5 J/cm² prior to storage could significantly retain a pH value and viability of the platelets stored for 8 days with improved quality compared to those stored similarly for 5 days in controls. The LLL inhibited reactive oxygen species (ROS) and lactate production, while sustaining ATP synthesis and mitochondrial membrane potential and morphology in the stored platelets. It also sustained aggregation capacity and in vivo survival of stored platelets, concomitant with no significant activation, as suggested by similar CD62p expression and enhanced agonist‐induced aggregation and recovery following infusion in the presence compared to absence of LLL treatment. This simple, additive‐free, cost‐effective, noninvasive approach can be readily incorporated into the current platelet storage system to potentially improve quality of stored platelets.      

Studies of steam decontamination of beef inoculated with Escherichia coli O157:H7 and its effect on subsequent storage

AIM: This study was carried out to determine the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and subsequent shelf life of beef subjected to subatmospheric steam at differing temperatures. METHODS AND RESULTS: A specifically built, laboratory scale decontamination apparatus was used in decontamination trials to examine the effect of condensing steam at differing subatmospheric pressures on the survival of E. coli O157:H7 on meat. Beef slices were inoculated with a nontoxigenic E. coli O157:H7 strain and subjected to condensing steam at temperatures of 55, 65 and 75 degrees C. Following treatment, the decontaminated meat was packaged and stored in air or under vacuum at temperatures of 10 or 0 degrees C for up to 42 days. Microbiological analysis of the decontaminated and a control product (not subjected to any heat treatment) was carried out at regular intervals over the storage time of the product. Overall, significant reductions (ca 1.5 log(10) CFU cm(-2)) in pathogen numbers were observed at a steam treatment temperature of 75 degrees C, however, postprocess storage conditions were important in ensuring no re-growth of the pathogen and this was best achieved by storage under vacuum at 0 degrees C. CONCLUSIONS: Steam had a significant impact in reducing E. coli O157:H7 populations, but storage conditions post-treatment were important for ensuring inhibition of the pathogen. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This study indicated that subatmospheric steam could have significant application in the decontamination of meat primals postfabrication, immediately prior to packaging thus ensuring a safer product for consumers.     

采后光照条件对白凤桃果实品质和挥发性香气物质形成的影响

研究了白凤桃果实贮藏过程中光照条件对果实成熟的影响。在7月12日(未熟期)和7月16日(硬熟期)采收果实,分别贮藏在光条件(白色荧光灯照明,果顶部光强为80μmol m~(-2)s~(-1))和暗条件中,室温均为25℃。硬熟期采收果实贮藏在光条件下,达到完熟期时,乙烯生成量较低。果肉的硬度在各个采收期,各种贮藏条件下均没有差别。光条件贮藏果实中花青苷含量较高。未熟期采收果实贮藏在光条件下时,可溶性固形物含量增加较多。光条件贮藏果实中天冬酰胺的下降比暗贮藏果实中更多。各时期采收的果实中,在光下贮藏时,果肉和果皮γ-癸内酯和γ-十二内酯的含量都明显增加。以上结果表明,白凤桃果实采收后在光下贮藏,可以明显改善果实的品质。     

Evaluation of different formulations of potential biocontrol yeast isolates efficacy on apple blue mold at storage condition

Post-harvest pathogens cause major losses in apple production. Biological control by using epiphytic yeasts against Penicillium expansum has been considered as an alternative method for controlling the post-harvest decays. The yeast isolates Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, Pichia guilliermondii, which showed high biocontrol efficacy against P. expansum, were selected for formulation tests. Formulation is an important step in developing a biocontrol product. The successful delivery of biocontrol agents, shelf life, stability and effectiveness in commercial conditions depend on the formulation. In the formulation, the carrier is the primary material used to allow a bioproduct to be dispersed effectively. Yeast isolates were grown in a cane molasses-based medium. Harvested yeast cells were combined with inorganic (talk, kaolin) and organic (Rice bran, wheat bran) carriers. Viability of the yeast cells in formulations stored at 4°C and 24°C was determined each month during 6 months storage. After 6 months storage to evaluate efficacy of formulations, all formulations were tested on apple to control blue mold in storage condition. High stability of antagonistic yeasts was achieved by using organic and inorganic carriers. Rice bran and wheat bran stimulated the germination of the yeasts cells during storage period. Both of the yeasts had significantly highest viable yeast cell content over 6 months in formulation containing wheat bran as a carrier. P.guillermondii in all formulations had significantly higher shelf life and was effective than R. mucilaginosa.     

Supercritical CO2 interpolymer complex encapsulation improves heat stability of probiotic bifidobacteria

The probiotic industry faces the challenge of retention of probiotic culture viability as numbers of these cells within their products inevitably decrease over time. In order to retain probiotic viability levels above the therapeutic minimum over the duration of the product’s shelf life, various methods have been employed, among which encapsulation has received much interest. In line with exploitation of encapsulation for protection of probiotics against adverse conditions, we have previously encapsulated bifidobacteria in poly-(vinylpyrrolidone)-poly-(vinylacetate-co-crotonic acid) (PVP:PVAc-CA) interpolymer complex microparticles under supercritical conditions. The microparticles produced had suitable characteristics for food applications and also protected the bacteria in simulated gastrointestinal fluids. The current study reports on accelerated shelf life studies of PVP:PVAc-CA encapsulated Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12 and Bifidobacterium longum Bb46. Samples were stored as free powders in glass vials at 30 °C for 12 weeks and then analysed for viable counts and water activity levels weekly or fortnightly. Water activities of the samples were within the range of 0.25–0.43, with an average a _w  = 0.34, throughout the storage period. PVP:PVAc-CA interpolymer complex encapsulation retained viable levels above the recommended minimum for 10 and 12 weeks, for B. longum Bb46 and B. lactis Bb12, respectively, thereby extending their shelf lives under high storage temperature by between 4 and 7 weeks. These results reveal the possibility for manufacture of encapsulated probiotic powders with increased stability at ambient temperatures. This would potentially allow the supply of a stable probiotic formulation to impoverished communities without proper storage facilities recommended for most of the currently available commercial probiotic products.     

Impact considerations of post-production processes on cell and gene drug products

Cell and gene therapies are demonstrating clinical efficacy, but prohibitive product costs and operational complexity bottlenecks may limit expanded patient access to these innovative and transformative products. An initial survey and subsequent article published through the International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy in 2017 presented a roadmap on how specific steps, from tissue procurement and material acquisition to facility operation and production, contribute to the high cost of cell and gene therapies. Herein the authors expanded the investigation to provide considerations to better understand how post-production procedures can impact a product's accessibility to patients. The administration of a drug product to and follow-up in a patient involve key decisions in several post-production process areas, such as product storage, distribution and handling logistics and compliance, across the value chain through integrated data management solutions. Understanding as well as carefully evaluating these specific components is not widely considered during early process development but is critical in developing a viable product life cycle.     

Freeze drying of histocompatibility typing sera.

This report describes a unit employed for the freeze drying of histocompatibility typing serum using a 50-hr cycle. This unit will process approximately 3200 3-ml vials with a final residual moisture content of less than 2%. The system employs dry ice-alcohol cooled circulating baths to maintain the condensers below ?60 °C, and two shelf cooling baths to maintain the product at required temperatures during the freeze drying process.The results of a 5-yr study of the effect of residual moisture as a function of time and storage temperature is also included. Studies conducted to date indicate that with residual moistures below 2%, freeze dried histocompatibility sera can be stored at +4 °C without the loss of significant tissue typing factors. Solubility of all serum was lost when stored at +37 °C or higher during this same 5-year period.     

Safety evaluation of sous vide-processed ready meals

AIMS: To assess survival, growth and toxin production of spore-forming bacteria in sous vide products exposed to a relatively high heat treatment. METHODS AND RESULTS: During a three-year period, 2,168 sous vide-processed, commercially available ready-made meals with a shelf life of 3-5 weeks were examined. The products were stored at 4 degrees C for the first 1/3 and at 7 degrees C for the remaining 2/3 of their shelf life period. Three-fourths of the samples had less than 10 bacteria per gram the day after production, and none had more than 1,000. Similar numbers were found at the end of the shelf life when stored as described above. At abuse temperature (20 degrees C), the number of bacteria increased to 10(6)-10(7) cfu g(-1) 7 d after production. A total of 350 isolates of Bacillus spp. were collected, but no Clostridium strains were detected. Only 11 of the 113 tested strains were able to grow at 7 degrees C in broth, and none of the psychrotrophic strains were able to produce substantial amounts of toxins causing food poisoning. CONCLUSION: The health risk of these products is small as long as the temperature during storage is low. For microbial testing of the end products, traditional plating will suffice.