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1.
新型冠状病毒肺炎的迅速传播和扩散警示着疾病风险评估的重要性。但现有的风险评估方法受数据限制,缺少实时性和准确性。此外,多数研究以行政统计单元作为分析尺度,存在可变面元问题。为解决这些问题,耦合精细尺度下武汉市疫情数据及多源地理数据,基于随机森林算法构建社区尺度的市域疫情传播风险评估模型并进行了疫情风险制图。模型测试精度达到0.85,Kappa系数达到0.70。此外,本研究还建立基于随机森林算法的社区及场所尺度的"空间变量-感染风险"模型,评估了不同场所设施疫情传播的风险程度。研究表明,(1)武汉中心区域感染风险最高并呈现出向外围递减的趋势;(2)感染风险排名前五的一级场所类型分别为购物服务、医疗服务、金融服务、交通设施以及公共设施;(3)小学、中学的疫情传播风险较低,而高等院校传播风险较高;(4)社区尺度下的疫情风险程度,预测购物场所与交通场所是疫情传播风险最高的驱动因子。本研究基于精细尺度提出风险评估新方法,可为未来疾病风险评估提供新思路,为疫情防控提供决策支持,人民群众提供安全保障。  相似文献   

2.
【背景】定量微生物风险评估作为定量评估游泳人群暴露于病原微生物后健康风险的方法,在国外已得到广泛应用,但目前国内的应用处于起步阶段且缺乏所需的游泳人群暴露数据。【目的】收集游泳人群暴露数据,并在海水浴场中进行应用,评估粪大肠菌群作为风险评估指标的可行性。【方法】通过对6个典型海水浴场的水质状况、粪大肠菌群浓度与环境因子的相关性进行分析,并发放调查问卷收集国内游泳人群的暴露数据,进而应用定量微生物风险评估方法,得出各个海水浴场的胃肠道疾病患病风险。【结果】6个海水浴场中粪大肠菌群浓度均与水温、气温及总云量具有显著相关性(P<0.01)。位于南方的海水浴场粪便污染情况较北方严重,粪大肠菌群浓度第95百分位数远高于国内“差”类水质标准的阈值。儿童、成年男性、成年女性单次沐浴事件吞下海水的体积分别为35.1 mL (95%置信区间为32.4-37.8,α=0.578,β=0.016),45.0 mL (95%置信区间为31.1-59.3,α=0.532,β=0.012),35.7 mL (95%置信区间为29.7-41.8,α=0.753,β=0.032)。6个海水浴场患胃肠道疾病的风险...  相似文献   

3.
【目的】评估安徽阜阳市引种应用价值广泛的香根草可能带来的风险。【方法】通过借鉴国内外学者研究成果,构建阜阳市引种香根草入侵风险评估具体指标体系并赋予相应的权重,运用文献资料搜集的信息和引种栽培实验数据开展评估。【结果】确定了阜阳市引种香根草入侵风险评估指标体系、权重和入侵风险等级划分;结果显示,阜阳市引种香根草的入侵风险评估得分为46分,风险等级为低风险;评估指标中生物学特征得分最高,占总分的19.57%。【结论】阜阳市引种香根草的入侵风险等级为低风险,阜阳市可以引种香根草,引入后需要定期监控。  相似文献   

4.
大黄鱼虹彩病毒腺苷三磷酸酶(ATPase)基因的克隆与表达   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
虹彩病毒(iridovirus)是一类对鱼类、两栖类和爬行类水生动物具有广泛感染性的致病病原,由虹彩病毒所致疾病给世界水产养殖业造成了巨大的经济损失.近年来,许多国家相继报道了在患病鱼、蛙和龟等水生经济动物中分离到虹彩病毒[1-4].  相似文献   

5.
野生动物重引入是保护濒危种群的重要措施之一,但重引入放归地存在的疾病风险会影响重引入物种的健康并导致重引入项目的失败。疾病风险评估是用于识别、确定风险因子优先级和设计防控策略以应对风险的重要方法。为评估普氏野马(Equus przewalskii)重引入内蒙古大青山国家级自然保护区的疾病风险,本研究在传统文献研究的基础上,结合保护区内4个村庄83份家养马科动物粪便中寄生虫卵检测结果,进行专家赋分,确定威胁因子并评级,对影响普氏野马种群健康重要因素之一的寄生虫疾病进行风险评估,并提出相应的防控建议。本研究共确定了44种胃肠道寄生虫疾病,病原体分别隶属于5纲7目8科19属;其中高风险寄生虫疾病10种,中风险13种,低风险21种。小井村、奎素村和滴水村均为低风险区域,而厂汉脑包村属于高风险区域。重引入地周围的家马(E. caballus)和家驴(E. asinus)有与放归普氏野马交叉感染寄生虫的风险,但经严格的防控措施后,可以放归普氏野马。建议保护区内村庄限定家养马科动物活动范围,定期为家畜驱虫并清理圈舍,严格实行禁牧政策,增设远离村庄的普氏野马水源地,并对放归后普氏野马种群的寄生虫疾病进行长期监测与防控,从而有效防止寄生虫疾病的发生和传播。  相似文献   

6.
虹彩病毒是一类大分子双链DNA病毒,目前证实可感染100多种水生动物,已给水产养殖业造成重大经济损失,同时也危及到野生动物种群的生物多样性及生态平衡。虹彩病毒在长期的病原与宿主相互作用及进化过程中发展形成了相当系统和完善的免疫逃逸策略,以逃避免疫攻击,完成在宿主体内的复制,以及种内和种间传播。综合归纳分析近年来国内外有关低等脊椎动物虹彩病毒免疫逃逸策略,以及宿主对这些病原的先天性免疫反应研究进展。  相似文献   

7.
为研究上海市生食贝类水产品的食用安全性,进行了半定量风险评估。牡蛎、醉泥螺、象拔蚌、北极贝为上海市主要的生食贝类水产品,调查显示贝类水产品中副溶血性弧菌平均检出率为43.7%,其中副溶血性弧菌致病性基因Tdh+/Trh+在贝类水产品中的平均检出率为3.75%。对上海地区对生食贝类的消费情况进行了膳食调查,并利用"Risk Ranger"软件对牡蛎、醉泥螺、象拔蚌、北极贝中副溶血性弧菌进行了半定量风险评估。上海市生食贝类消费人群比例为13.86%,生食贝类的食用频率平均2.4月/餐次,平均每餐消费生食贝类水产品为49.06 g/餐。风险评估结果显示:牡蛎/副溶血性弧菌(50)属于高度风险,醉泥螺/副溶血性弧菌(46)、象拔蚌/副溶血性弧菌(44)、北极贝/副溶血性弧菌(39)均属于中度风险,根据风险排序风险大小依次为牡蛎醉泥螺象拔蚌北极贝。  相似文献   

8.
为了保证检疫的安全性而又不失国际贸易的透明度,需要对检疫害虫进行定量的风险评估。本文介绍一套基于最高虫口限量概念的害虫传入定量风险评估计算机平台,把两性生殖害虫的入侵风险建立在至少一对潜在交配成虫的传入概率上。计算机分析平台由SAS V9.0分析软件,PHP网络编程语言和MySQL数据库构建,通过Apache服务器进行网络发布。用户通过web登陆该平台并输入相关参数,可自动调用服务器端的SAS分析程序进行分析并在网页上得到结果。这是害虫传入风险定量评估的新尝试,它将为检疫部门提供一套实用性较强的害虫传入风险量化评估的新工具。  相似文献   

9.
苏州外来植物入侵风险评估体系及牛膝菊的入侵风险   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
外来入侵生物严重挑战着全球的经济社会和生态安全,外来种入侵风险评估工作重要而紧迫.根据相关外来植物风险评估标准,结合苏州的地理气候特征和最新研究成果,并加入了自交亲和性以及DNA C值指标,建立了适合于苏州地区的外来植物风险评估体系,并依据此体系,对牛膝菊(Galinsogaparviflora)在苏州地区的入侵风险进行了定量评估.结果表明,依据满分为100分的风险评估体系,牛膝菊的风险值为68,风险程度中等,需要进行较严格的监控管理,在其大规模爆发之前加以防除.  相似文献   

10.
中国旱灾风险定量评估   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
全球变暖及经济社会快速发展导致区域及全球性灾害风险增大,中国更是几乎每年都会遭受旱灾,因此,开展旱灾风险评估及影响因素研究对于区域经济社会可持续发展和灾害风险管理具有重要意义。以前的旱灾风险评估在评估方法以及评估指标选取方面都具有很强的主观性,导致风险评估结果具有强烈的不确定性,这在划定我国的高旱灾风险区域时可能会造成问题。基于旱灾风险的定义,合理假设"历史上旱灾损失高的地区遭受高旱灾损失的概率越大",引入历史旱灾损失资料对旱灾风险进行校正,构建了新的旱灾风险评估模型,揭示了中国旱灾风险的区域分异规律,并量化了各个影响因子的贡献水平。分析结果表明,我国存在5个显著的旱灾高风险区:东北地区、华北地区、西北地区东部、西南地区东部以及西北地区西部的小部分区域。影响因子分析进一步表明,高暴露度和高脆弱性是导致地区出现高旱灾风险的主要原因。  相似文献   

11.
International trade in live plant materials has increased worldwide over the last four decades. This has led to a dramatic increase in the introduction, establishment and spread of non‐native plant pathogens. Regulatory authorities need advice on measures that may mitigate these adverse consequences of trade. Risk models may be used to underpin such advice. In this review, we give a systematic overview of the data needed for a quantitative risk model for Phomopsis vaccinii, which causes stem and fruit infections on Vaccinium species, and sometimes death, potentially also on native wild Vaccinium species in the EU. P. vaccinii is a quarantine organism worldwide, except for North America, where it is endemic. Despite extensive knowledge of the aetiology of the diseases caused by this pathogen and its taxonomy, quantitative data on transportation and detection of infected plants for planting and berries are scarce, and quantitative assessment of the future introduction, establishment and spread of P. vaccinii is difficult. Estimation of the potential impact of this pathogen in production fields and wild Vaccinium stands is even more difficult. P. vaccinii is not unique in this respect, and this review indicates the need for more and better quantitative data for assessment of the risks posed by newly introduced plant pathogens in areas where they are not endemic.  相似文献   

12.
The global trade in amphibians entails the transport of tens of millions of live animals each year. In addition to the impact harvesting wild animals can have on amphibian populations, there is mounting evidence that the emerging pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and ranaviruses, the aetiological agents of chytridiomycosis and ranaviral disease, respectively, are spread through this trade. The link between these pathogens and amphibian declines and extinctions suggests that the epidemiological impact of the trade is significant and may negatively affect conservation and trade economics. Here we present a brief assessment of the volume of the global trade in live amphibians, the risk of individuals harboring infection, and information on the recent listing by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) of chytridiomycosis and ranaviral disease in the OIE Aquatic Animal Health Code. This listing made chytridiomycosis and ranaviral disease internationally notifiable diseases and thus subject to OIE standards, which aim to assure the sanitary safety of international trade in live amphibians and their products.  相似文献   

13.
Risk-based methods promise improved decision-making for managing of contaminants, such as salinity, sediments, nutrients, and toxicants, that can adversely affect the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems. Two aspects of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and management—stakeholder involvement and more quantitative approaches to risk analysis—are particularly challenging. Stakeholder involvement is crucial both in the risk assessment process and the development, acceptance, and implementation of a risk management plan. Additionally, a number of quantitative approaches (particularly Bayesian approaches and multi-criteria decision-making) have been identified as having the potential to include expert-based inputs into risk-based decision-making. These offer promise for better inclusion of stakeholder knowledge and preferences into the decision-making process, and for improving the links between stakeholder inputs and potential risks to the ecological condition of the system. A major challenge for ecologists and natural resource managers is to make the ERA process more quantitative. Most ERAs conducted to date have been qualitative assessments that suffer from a number of deficiencies, the most serious being the lack of transparency and a reliance on subjective judgments. This article argues that the most productive way forward may be to use Bayesian methods to couple existing process-based models, empirical relationships based on good data, and expert opinion, to make the analysis of ecological risks more robust, consistent, and repeatable.  相似文献   

14.
生态风险评价研究进展   总被引:57,自引:5,他引:57  
陈辉  刘劲松  曹宇  李双成  欧阳华 《生态学报》2006,26(5):1558-1566
20多年来,生态风险评价研究经历了从环境风险到生态风险到区域生态风险评价的发展历程,风险源由单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体由单一受体发展到多受体,评价范围由局地扩展到区域景观水平.区域生态风险评价就是大尺度上研究复杂环境背景下包含多风险源、多风险受体的综合风险研究.目前,区域生态风险评价的理论框架已经搭建起来,统计方法多采用相对评价法.区域生态风险评价未来的发展方向为继续加强实验和野外调查,进一步减小不确定性,逐步解决尺度推移问题.区域生态风险评价必须与经济、社会、文化相结合,才能充分发挥它在管理决策中的作用.  相似文献   

15.
The history of approaches to evaluating the hazards and risks of chemicals is briefly reviewed. The role of default options (generic approaches based on general knowledge in the absence of specific knowledge to the contrary) is discussed as a part of the risk assessment paradigm advanced by the National Academy of Science/National Research Council in 1983 and 1994. Examples are given of the impact of acquiring specific science to replace default options. An argument is made for developing specific science that would reduce uncertainty in risk assessments. Research on specific science would be guided by identified sources of uncertainty in the risk assessment process. The importance of using a research strategy that builds on human data is emphasized for validating new molecular and cellular biological assessment methods. The paper closes with a discussion of the tension between a hazard-based approach versus quantitative risk assessment in guiding risk management decisions. The former requires limited data, is qualitative, and easy to communicate, while the latter requires substantial data and is difficult to communicate. However, quantitative risk assessment provides a more rational basis for decisions on the allocation of both public and private resources for actions that will effectively minimize overall health risks to the public.  相似文献   

16.
区域生态风险评价的关键问题与展望   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10       下载免费PDF全文
区域生态风险评价具有多风险因子、多风险受体、多评价终点、强调不确定性因素以及空间异质性的特点,它与传统的生态风险评价在风险源、胁迫因子和评价尺度上具有明显区别。尝试建立了一个基于陆地生态系统的区域生态风险评价框架,同时针对目前区域生态风险评价的研究现状,指出不确定性分析、尺度外推难、评价指标不统一、评价标准不统一、风险因子筛选及优先排序、区域内污染物复合、水生过渡到陆生生态系统风险评价、特殊的人为因素等是目前区域生态风险评价存在的关键问题及难点所在,并提出解决这些问题可能所需的工具、手段和理论方法突破。最后指出区域生态风险观测与数据采集加工、区域生态风险指标体系的统一与整合、区域生态风险评价方法论、区域生态风险的空间分布特征与表达以及区域生态风险评价反馈与管理机制5个方面是区域生态风险评价未来的研究重点。  相似文献   

17.
Aims:  To describe the approach used in conducting a fit‐for‐purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. Methods and Results:  A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Conclusions:  Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. Significance and Impact of the Study:  The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.  相似文献   

18.
外来物种风险分析是防止生物入侵的有效手段之一。本文按照风险识别、风险评估和风险管理3个阶段,构建了城市绿地外来物种风险分析体系。文中提出了4个层次、26个指标构成风险评估指标体系,此体系囊括了城市绿地外来物种的传入、定殖、扩散、危害等入侵风险形成的基本要素,并规范了风险指数的计算方法。以2010年上海世博会引进日本景观苗木可能携带的外来物种为对象,对该体系在生产实践中进行了应用。结果表明:高风险物种共7种,涉及害虫4种、植物病原微生物2种、植物线虫1种;中风险物种共10种,涉及害虫3种、植物病原微生物4种、植物线虫3种;低、极低风险物种各1种。根据风险分析结果,对以上物种提出了有针对性的风险管理措施。实践表明,该风险分析体系实用性强,在上海世博会植物引种过程中为防止外来物种入侵起到了较好的预警效果,为管理者提供了有价值的决策参考,有力保障了上海世博会期间的生态安全。  相似文献   

19.
The spread of non-native parasites with the movement of animals is a primary cause of disease emergence worldwide. Such introductions can threaten native biodiversity, hinder conservation efforts and limit the socio-economic development of natural resources. Evaluating the threats from alien parasites can represent a considerable challenge, due to the limited information that often accompanies their introduction. We present a comprehensive modular risk assessment scheme that supports the management of non-native fish parasites in their pre- and post-introduction phases. This scheme addresses some of the shortcomings of current risk analysis, including the risk management of non-notifiable pathogens and impact assessment of parasites following establishment. An initial procedure for hazard identification promotes a rapid assessment of disease risk and prompt imposition of management measures. This is followed by a longer-term assessment of impact that accommodates available and emerging knowledge on the pathogen and its distribution. Consideration is given to ecological and economic consequences of disease at the host, population and fishery levels. Each module provides an easily interpreted output that underpins management responses, ranging from monitoring parasite distribution to their attempted eradication. A final module ensures clear communication of disease risk to relevant stakeholders, using the other modules as a framework. Outputs of this risk assessment will inform the prioritisation of available resources and provides a scientifically robust foundation on which to base practical and proportionate management measures to protect native environments. The scheme presented here was specifically developed for freshwater fisheries in England and Wales, but may be modified for use globally and for the non-native parasite fauna of other taxa.  相似文献   

20.
Risk assessment is an essential prelude to the development of accident prevention strategies in any chemical or petrochemical industry. Many techniques and methodologies such as HAZOP, failure mode effect analysis, fault tree analysis, preliminary hazard analysis, quantitative risk assessment and probabilistic safety analysis are available to conduct qualitative, quantitative, and probabilistic risk assessment. However, these methodologies are limited by: extensive data requirements, the length of study, results are not directly interpretable for decision making, simulation is often difficult, and they are applicable only at the operation or late design stage. Khan et al. (2001a) recently proposed a detailed methodology for risk assessment and safety evaluation. This methodology is simple, yet it is effective in safety and design-related decision making, and it has been applied successfully to many case studies. It is named SCAP, where S stands for safety, C and A stand for credible accident respectively, and P stands for probabilistic fault tree analysis. This paper recapitulates the SCAP methodology and demonstrates its application to a petrochemical plant.  相似文献   

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