Potential for carbon sequestration in European soils: preliminary estimates for five scenarios using results from long-term experiments

One of the main options for carbon mitigation identified by the IPCC is the sequestration of carbon in soils. In this paper we use statistical relationships derived from European long-term experiments to explore the potential for carbon sequestration in soils in the European Union. We examine five scenarios, namely (a) the amendment of arable soils with animal manure, (b) the amendment of arable soils with sewage sludge, (c) the incorporation of cereal straw into the soils in which it was grown, (d) the afforestation of surplus arable land through natural woodland regeneration, and (e) extensification of agriculture through ley-arable farming. Our calculations suggest only limited potential to increase soil carbon stocks over the next century by addition of animal manure, sewage sludge or straw (Þbl 15 Tg C y^–1), but greater potential through extensification of agriculture (≈ 40 Tg C y^–1) or through the afforestation of surplus arable land (≈ 50 Tg C y^–1). We estimate that extensification could increase the total soil carbon stock of the European Union by 17%. Afforestation of 30% of present arable land would increase soil carbon stocks by about 8% over a century and would substitute up to 30 Tg C y^–1 of fossil fuel carbon if the wood were used as biofuel. However, even the afforestation scenario, with the greatest potential for carbon mitigation, can sequester only 0.8% of annual global anthropogenic CO₂-carbon. Our figures suggest that, although efforts in temperate agriculture can contribute to global carbon mitigation, the potential is small compared to that available through reducing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions by halting tropical and sub-tropical deforestation or by reducing fossil fuel burning.     

Agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potential globally,in Europe and in the UK: what have we learnt in the last 20 years?

Agricultural lands occupy about 40–50% of the Earth's land surface. Agricultural practices can make a significant contribution at low cost to increasing soil carbon sinks, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use. Considering all gases, the global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030 is estimated to be ca. 5500–6000 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1. Economic potentials are estimated to be 1500–1600, 2500–2700 and 4000–4300 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 at carbon prices of up to $US20, 50 and 100 t CO₂‐eq.^?1, respectively. The value of the global agricultural GHG mitigation at the same three carbon prices is $US32 000, 130 000 and 420 000 million yr^?1, respectively. At the European level, early estimates of soil carbon sequestration potential in croplands were ca. 200 Mt CO₂ yr^?1, but this is a technical potential and is for geographical Europe as far east as the Urals. The economic potential is much smaller, with more recent estimates for the EU27 suggesting a maximum potential of ca. 20 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1. The UK is small in global terms, but a large part of its land area (11 Mha) is used for agriculture. Agriculture accounts for about 7% of total UK GHG emissions. The mitigation potential of UK agriculture is estimated to be ca. 1–2 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1, accounting for less than 1% of UK total GHG emissions.     

Carbon Sequestration in Reclaimed Minesoils

Minesoils are drastically influenced by anthropogenic activities. They are characterized by low soil organic matter (SOM) content, low fertility, and poor physicochemical and biological properties, limiting their quality, capability, and functions. Reclamation of these soils has potential for resequestering some of the C lost and mitigating CO₂ emissions. Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates in minesoils are high in the first 20 to 30 years after reclamation in the top 15 cm soil depth. In general, higher rates of SOC sequestration are observed for minesoils under pasture and grassland management than under forest land use. Observed rates of SOC sequestration are 0.3 to 1.85 Mg C ha^{? 1} yr^{? 1} for pastures and rangelands, and 0.2 to 1.64 Mg C ha^{? 1} yr^{? 1} for forest land use. Proper reclamation and postreclamation management may enhance SOC sequestration and add to the economic value of the mined sites. Management practices that may enhance SOC sequestration include increasing vegetative cover by deep-rooted perennial vegetation and afforestation, improving soil fertility, and alleviation of physical, chemical and biological limitations by fertilizers and soil amendments such as biosolids, manure, coal combustion by-products, and mulches. Soil and water conservation are important to SOC sequestration. The potential of SOC sequestration in minesoils of the US is estimated to be 1.28 Tg C yr^?1, compared to the emissions from coal combustion of 506 Tg C yr^{? 1}.     

Post‐Soviet farmland abandonment,forest recovery,and carbon sequestration in western Ukraine

Land use is a critical factor in the global carbon cycle, but land‐use effects on carbon fluxes are poorly understood in many regions. One such region is Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, where land‐use intensity decreased substantially after the collapse of socialism, and farmland abandonment and forest expansion have been widespread. Our goal was to examine how land‐use trends affected net carbon fluxes in western Ukraine (57 000 km²) and to assess the region's future carbon sequestration potential. Using satellite‐based forest disturbance and farmland abandonment rates from 1988 to 2007, historic forest resource statistics, and a carbon bookkeeping model, we reconstructed carbon fluxes from land use in the 20th century and assessed potential future carbon fluxes until 2100 for a range of forest expansion and logging scenarios. Our results suggested that the low‐point in forest cover occurred in the 1920s. Forest expansion between 1930 and 1970 turned the region from a carbon source to a sink, despite intensive logging during socialism. The collapse of the Soviet Union created a vast, but currently largely untapped carbon sequestration potential (up to～150 Tg C in our study region). Future forest expansion will likely maintain or even increase the region's current sink strength of 1.48 Tg C yr^?1. This may offer substantial opportunities for offsetting industrial carbon emissions and for rural development in regions with otherwise diminishing income opportunities. Throughout Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, millions of hectares of farmland were abandoned after the collapse of socialism; thus similar reforestation opportunities may exist in other parts of this region.     

Carbon sequestration potential in European croplands has been overestimated

Yearly, per‐area carbon sequestration rates are used to estimate mitigation potentials by comparing types and areas of land management in 1990 and 2000 and projected to 2010, for the European Union (EU)‐15 and for four country‐level case studies for which data are available: UK, Sweden, Belgium and Finland. Because cropland area is decreasing in these countries (except for Belgium), and in most European countries there are no incentives in place to encourage soil carbon sequestration, carbon sequestration between 1990 and 2000 was small or negative in the EU‐15 and all case study countries. Belgium has a slightly higher estimate for carbon sequestration than the other countries examined. This is at odds with previous reports of decreasing soil organic carbon stocks in Flanders. For all countries except Belgium, carbon sequestration is predicted to be negligible or negative by 2010, based on extrapolated trends, and is small even in Belgium. The only trend in agriculture that may be enhancing carbon stocks on croplands at present is organic farming, and the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Previous studies have focused on the potential for carbon sequestration and have shown quite significant potential. This study, which examines the sequestration likely to occur by 2010, suggests that the potential will not be realized. Without incentives for carbon sequestration in the future, cropland carbon sequestration under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol will not be an option in EU‐15.     

Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO₂ emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land‐use/land‐management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO₂ levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land‐management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land‐use/land‐management. We show that no single land‐management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land‐management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land‐management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long‐term land‐use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land‐use. A reduction in CO₂‐carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities (Kyoto Article 3.3) will play a major role. In this study, however, we demonstrate the considerable potential of changes in agricultural land‐use and ‐management (Kyoto Article 3.4) for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential in crop production with biochar soil amendment—a carbon footprint assessment for cross‐site field experiments from China

Biochar soil amendment (BSA) had been advocated as a promising approach to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture. However, the net GHG mitigation potential of BSA remained unquantified with regard to the manufacturing process and field application. Carbon footprint (CF) was employed to assess the mitigating potential of BSA by estimating all the direct and indirect GHG emissions in the full life cycles of crop production including production and field application of biochar. Data were obtained from 7 sites (4 sites for paddy rice production and 3 sites for maize production) under a single BSA at 20 t/ha^?1 across mainland China. Considering soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and GHG emission reduction from syngas recycling, BSA reduced the CFs by 20.37–41.29 t carbon dioxide equivalent ha^?1 (CO₂‐eq ha^?1) and 28.58–39.49 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 for paddy rice and maize production, respectively, compared to no biochar application. Without considering SOC sequestration and syngas recycling, the net CF change by BSA was in a range of ?25.06 to 9.82 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 and ?20.07 to 5.95 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 for paddy rice and maize production, respectively, over no biochar application. As the largest contributors among the others, syngas recycling in the process of biochar manufacture contributed by 47% to total CF reductions under BSA for rice cultivation while SOC sequestration contributed by 57% for maize cultivation. There was a large variability of the CF reductions across the studied sites whether in paddy rice or maize production, due likely to the difference in GHG emission reductions and SOC increments under BSA across the sites. This study emphasized that SOC sequestration should be taken into account the CF calculation of BSA. Improved biochar manufacturing technique could achieve a remarkable carbon sink by recycling the biogas for traditional fossil‐fuel replacement.     

The conversion of the corn/soybean ecosystem to no-till agriculture may result in a carbon sink

Mitigating or slowing an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) has been the focus of international efforts, most apparent with the development of the Kyoto Protocol. Sequestration of carbon (C) in agricultural soils is being advocated as a method to assist in meeting the demands of an international C credit system. The conversion of conventionally tilled agricultural lands to no till is widely accepted as having a large-scale sequestration potential. In this study, C flux measurements over a no-till corn/soybean agricultural ecosystem over 6 years were coupled with estimates of C release associated with agricultural practices to assess the net biome productivity (NBP) of this no-till ecosystem. Estimates of NBP were also calculated for the conventionally tilled corn/soybean ecosystem assuming net ecosystem exchange is C neutral. These measurements were scaled to the US as a whole to determine the sequestration potential of corn/soybean ecosystems, under current practices where 10% of agricultural land devoted to this ecosystem is no-tilled and under a hypothetical scenario where 100% of the land is not tilled. The estimates of this analysis show that current corn/soybean agriculture in the US releases ∼7.2 Tg C annually, with no-till sequestering ∼2.2 Tg and conventional-till releasing ∼9.4 Tg. The complete conversion of land area to no till might result in 21.7 Tg C sequestered annually, representing a net C flux difference of ∼29 Tg C. These results demonstrate that large-scale conversion to no-till practices, at least for the corn/soybean ecosystem, could potentially offset ca. 2% of annual US carbon emissions.     

Soil carbon sequestrations by nitrogen fertilizer application, straw return and no-tillage in China's cropland

Soil as the largest global carbon pool has played a great role in sequestering the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Although global carbon sequestration potentials have been assessed since the 1980s, few investigations have been made on soil carbon sequestration (SCS) in China's cropland. China is a developing country and has a long history of agricultural activities. Estimation of SCS potentials in China's cropland is very important for assessing the potential measures to prevent the atmospheric carbon rise and predicting the atmospheric CO₂ concentration in future. After review of the available results of the field experiments in China, relationships between SCS and nitrogen fertilizer application, straw return and no‐tillage (NT) practices were established for each of the four agricultural regions. According to the current agricultural practices and their future development, estimations were made on SCS by nitrogen fertilizer application, straw return and NT in China's cropland. In the current situation, nitrogen fertilizer application, straw return and zero tillage can sequester 5.96, 9.76 and 0.800 Tg C each year. Carbon sequestration potential will increase to 12.1 Tg C yr⁻¹ if nitrogen is fertilized on experts' recommendations. The carbon sequestration potentials of straw return and NT can reach 34.4 and 4.60 Tg C yr⁻¹ when these two techniques are further popularized. In these measures, straw return is the most promising one. Full popularization of straw return can reduce 5.3% of the CO₂ emission from fossil fuel combustion in China in 1990, which meets the global mean CO₂ reduction requested by the Kyoto Protocol (5.2%). In general, if more incentive policies can be elaborated and implemented, the SCS in China's cropland will be increased by about two times. So, popularization of the above‐mentioned agricultural measures for carbon sequestration can be considered as an effective tool to prevent the rapid rise of the atmospheric CO₂ in China.     

The European carbon balance. Part 4: integration of carbon and other trace‐gas fluxes

Overviewing the European carbon (C), greenhouse gas (GHG), and non‐GHG fluxes, gross primary productivity (GPP) is about 9.3 Pg yr^?1, and fossil fuel imports are 1.6 Pg yr^?1. GPP is about 1.25% of solar radiation, containing about 360 × 10¹⁸ J energy – five times the energy content of annual fossil fuel use. Net primary production (NPP) is 50%, terrestrial net biome productivity, NBP, 3%, and the net GHG balance, NGB, 0.3% of GPP. Human harvest uses 20% of NPP or 10% of GPP, or alternatively 1‰ of solar radiation after accounting for the inherent cost of agriculture and forestry, for production of pesticides and fertilizer, the return of organic fertilizer, and for the C equivalent cost of GHG emissions. C equivalents are defined on a global warming potential with a 100‐year time horizon. The equivalent of about 2.4% of the mineral fertilizer input is emitted as N₂O. Agricultural emissions to the atmosphere are about 40% of total methane, 60% of total NO‐N, 70% of total N₂O‐N, and 95% of total NH₃‐N emissions of Europe. European soils are a net C sink (114 Tg yr^?1), but considering the emissions of GHGs, soils are a source of about 26 Tg CO₂ C‐equivalent yr^?1. Forest, grassland and sediment C sinks are offset by GHG emissions from croplands, peatlands and inland waters. Non‐GHGs (NH₃, NOx) interact significantly with the GHG and the C cycle through ammonium nitrate aerosols and dry deposition. Wet deposition of nitrogen (N) supports about 50% of forest timber growth. Land use change is regionally important. The absolute flux values total about 50 Tg C yr^?1. Nevertheless, for the European trace‐gas balance, land‐use intensity is more important than land‐use change. This study shows that emissions of GHGs and non‐GHGs significantly distort the C cycle and eliminate apparent C sinks.