Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO₂ emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land‐use/land‐management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO₂ levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land‐management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land‐use/land‐management. We show that no single land‐management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land‐management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land‐management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long‐term land‐use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land‐use. A reduction in CO₂‐carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities (Kyoto Article 3.3) will play a major role. In this study, however, we demonstrate the considerable potential of changes in agricultural land‐use and ‐management (Kyoto Article 3.4) for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously.     

Management options for reducing CO2 emissions from agricultural soils

Crop-based agriculture occupies 1.7 billion hectares, globally, with a soil C stock of about 170 Pg. Of the past anthropogenic CO² additions to the atmosphere, about 50 Pg C came from the loss of soil organic matter (SOM) in cultivated soils. Improved management practices, however, can rebuild C stocks in agricultural soils and help mitigate CO² emissions.Increasing soil C stocks requires increasing C inputs and/or reducing soil heterotrophic respiration. Management options that contribute to reduced soil respiration include reduced tillage practices (especially no-till) and increased cropping intensity. Physical disturbance associated with intensive soil tillage increases the turnover of soil aggregates and accelerates the decomposition of aggregate-associated SOM. No-till increases aggregate stability and promotes the formation of recalcitrant SOM fractions within stabilized micro- and macroaggregate structures. Experiments using¹³ C natural abundance show up to a two-fold increase in mean residence time of SOM under no-till vs intensive tillage. Greater cropping intensity, i.e., by reducing the frequency of bare fallow in crop rotations and increasing the use of perennial vegetation, can increase water and nutrient use efficiency by plants, thereby increasing C inputs to soil and reducing organic matter decomposition rates.Management and policies to sequester C in soils need to consider that: soils have a finite capacity to store C, gains in soil C can be reversed if proper management is not maintained, and fossil fuel inputs for different management practices need to be factored into a total agricultural CO² balance.     

The conversion of the corn/soybean ecosystem to no-till agriculture may result in a carbon sink

Mitigating or slowing an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) has been the focus of international efforts, most apparent with the development of the Kyoto Protocol. Sequestration of carbon (C) in agricultural soils is being advocated as a method to assist in meeting the demands of an international C credit system. The conversion of conventionally tilled agricultural lands to no till is widely accepted as having a large-scale sequestration potential. In this study, C flux measurements over a no-till corn/soybean agricultural ecosystem over 6 years were coupled with estimates of C release associated with agricultural practices to assess the net biome productivity (NBP) of this no-till ecosystem. Estimates of NBP were also calculated for the conventionally tilled corn/soybean ecosystem assuming net ecosystem exchange is C neutral. These measurements were scaled to the US as a whole to determine the sequestration potential of corn/soybean ecosystems, under current practices where 10% of agricultural land devoted to this ecosystem is no-tilled and under a hypothetical scenario where 100% of the land is not tilled. The estimates of this analysis show that current corn/soybean agriculture in the US releases ∼7.2 Tg C annually, with no-till sequestering ∼2.2 Tg and conventional-till releasing ∼9.4 Tg. The complete conversion of land area to no till might result in 21.7 Tg C sequestered annually, representing a net C flux difference of ∼29 Tg C. These results demonstrate that large-scale conversion to no-till practices, at least for the corn/soybean ecosystem, could potentially offset ca. 2% of annual US carbon emissions.     

Evaluation of carbon accrual in afforested agricultural soils

Afforestation of agricultural lands can provide economically and environmentally realistic C storage to mitigate for elevated CO₂ until other actions such as reduced fossil fuel use can be taken. Soil carbon sequestration following afforestation of agricultural land ranges from losses to substantial annual gains. The present understanding of the controlling factors is inadequate for understanding ecosystem dynamics, modeling global change and for policy decision‐makers. Our study found that planting agricultural soils to deciduous forests resulted in ecosystem C accumulations of 2.4 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and soil accumulations of 0.35 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Planting to conifers showed an average ecosystem sequestration of 2.5 and 0.26 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the soils but showed greater field to field variability than when planted to deciduous forest. Path analysis showed that Ca was positively related to soil C accumulations for both conifers and deciduous afforested sites and played a significant role in soil C accumulations in these sites. Soil N increases were closely related to C accumulation and were two times greater than could be explained by system N inputs from atmospheric deposition and natural sources. Our results suggest that the addition of Ca to afforested sites, especially conifers, may be an economical means to enhance soil C sequestration even if it does not result in increasing C in aboveground pools. The mechanism of N accumulation in these aggrading stands needs further investigation.     

Contemporary carbon stocks of mineral forest soils in the Swiss Alps

Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been identified as the main globalterrestrial carbon reservoir, but considerable uncertainty remains as toregional SOC variability and the distribution of C between vegetationand soil. We used gridded forest soil data (8–km × 8–km)representative of Swiss forests in terms of climate and forest typedistribution to analyse spatial patterns of mineral SOC stocks alonggradients in the European Alps for the year 1993. At stand level, meanSOC stocks of 98 t C ha^–1 (N = 168,coefficient of variation: 70%) were obtained for the entiremineral soil profile, 76 t C ha^–1 (N =137, CV: 50%) in 0–30 cm topsoil, and 62 t Cha^–1 (N = 156, CV: 46%) in0–20 cm topsoil. Extrapolating to national scale, we calculatedcontemporary SOC stocks of 110 Tg C (entire mineral soil, standarderror: 6 Tg C), 87 Tg C (0–30 cm topsoil, standarderror: 3.5 Tg C) and 70 Tg C (0–20 cm topsoil, standarderror: 2.5 Tg C) for mineral soils of accessible Swiss forests(1.1399 Mha). According to our estimate, the 0–20 cm layers ofmineral forest soils in Switzerland store about half of the Csequestered by forest trees (136 Tg C) and more than five times morethan organic horizons (13.2 Tg C).At stand level, regression analyses on the entire data set yielded nostrong climatic or topographic signature for forest SOC stocks in top(0–20 cm) and entire mineral soils across the Alps, despite thewide range of values of site parameters. Similarly, geostatisticalanalyses revealed no clear spatial trends for SOC in Switzerland at thescale of sampling. Using subsets, biotic, abiotic controls andcategorial variables (forest type, region) explained nearly 60%of the SOC variability in topsoil mineral layers (0–20 cm) forbroadleaf stands (N = 56), but only little of thevariability in needleleaf stands (N = 91,R ² = 0.23 for topsoil layers).Considerable uncertainties remain in assessments of SOC stocks, due tounquantified errors in soil density and rock fraction, lack of data onwithin-site SOC variability and missing or poorly quantifiedenvironmental control parameters. Considering further spatial SOCvariability, replicate pointwise soil sampling at 8–km × 8–kmresolution without organic horizons will thus hardly allow to detectchanges in SOC stocks in strongly heterogeneous mountain landscapes.     

Carbon stock changes and carbon sequestration potential of Flemish cropland soils

Evaluations of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are often based on assigning a carbon density to each one of a number of ecosystems or soil classes considered, using data from soil profiles within these categories. A better approach, in which the use of classification methods by which extrapolation of SOC data to larger areas is avoided, can only be used if enough data are available at a sufficiently small scale. Over 190 000 SOC measurements (0–24 cm) have been made in the Flemish cropland (the Northern part of Belgium) in the 1989–2000 period. These SOC data were grouped into 3‐year periods and as means plus standard deviation per (part of) community (polygons). This large dataset was used to calculate SOC stocks and their evolution with time, without data extrapolation. Using a detailed soil map, larger spatial groups of polygons were created based on soil texture and spatial location. Linear regression analysis showed that in the entire study area, SOC stocks had decreased or at best had remained stable. In total, a yearly decrease of 354 kton OC yr^?1 was calculated, which corresponds with a net CO₂ emission of 1238 kton CO₂ yr^?1. Specific regions with a high carbon sequestration potential were identified, based on SOC losses during the 1989–2000 period and the mean 1999 SOC content, compared to the average SOC content of soils in Flanders with a similar soil texture. When restoring the SOC stocks to their 1990 level, we estimated the carbon sequestration potential of the Flemish cropland soils to be some 300 kton CO₂ yr^?1 at best, which corresponds to a 40‐year restoration period. In conclusion, we can say that in regions where agricultural production is very intense, carbon sequestration in the cropland may make only a very modest contribution to a country's effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.     

On fertilizer‐induced soil carbon sequestration in China's croplands

Applications of fertilizer, often thought to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, are of no value to the mitigation of climate change if the carbon dioxide released during the production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizer exceeds the incremental carbon storage in soils from its use. Nitrogen fertilizer is also a source of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. The recent analysis of carbon sequestration in cropland soils of China does not apply these ‘discounts’ to the global warming mitigation expected from greater use of fertilizer; doing so would likely eliminate all the climate benefits of the postulated enhanced carbon sequestration.     

Land use change and the global carbon cycle: the role of tropical soils

Millions of hectares of tropical forest are cleared annually for agriculture, pasture, shifting cultivation and timber. One result of these changes in land use is the release of CO₂ from the cleared vegetation and soils. Although there is uncertainty as to the size of this release, it appears to be a major source of atmospheric CO₂, second only to the release from the combustion of fossil fuels. This study estimates the release of CO₂ from tropical soils using a computer model that simulates land use change in the tropics and data on (1) the carbon content of forest soils before clearing; (2) the changes in the carbon content under the various types of land use; and (3) the area of forest converted to each use. It appears that the clearing and use of tropical soils affects their carbon content to a depth of about 40 cm. Soils of tropical closed forests contain approximately 6.7 kg C · m^-2; soils of tropical open forests contain approximately 5.2 kg C · m^-2 to this depth. The cultivation of tropical soils reduces their carbon content by 40% 5 yr after clearing; the use of these soils for pasture reduces it by about 20%. Logging in tropical forests appears to have little effect on soil carbon. The carbon content of soils used by shifting cultivators returns to the level found under primary forest about 35 yr after abandonment. The estimated net release of carbon from tropical soils due to land use change was 0.11–0.26 × 10¹⁵ g in 1980.     

Changes in soil carbon inventories following cultivation of previously untilled soils

Cultivation of previously untilled soils usually results in release of carbon from the soil to the atmosphere, which can affect both soil fertility locally and the atmospheric burden of CO₂ globally. Generalizations about the magnitude of this flux have been hampered by a lack of good quality comparative data on soil carbon stocks of cultivated and uncultivated soils. Using data from several recent studies, we have reexamined the conclusions of previous reviews of this subject. The data were divided into subsets according to whether the soils were sampled by genetic horizon or by fixed depths. Sampling by fixed depths appears to underestimate soil C losses, but both subsets of data support earlier conclusions that between 20% and 40% of the soil C is lost following cultivation. Our best estimate is a loss of about 30% from the entire soil solum. Our analysis also supports the conclusion that most of the loss of soil C occurs within the first few Years (even within two Years in some cases) following initial cultivation. Our analysis does not support an earlier conclusion that the fractional loss of soil carbon is positively correlated to the amount of carbon initially present in the uncultivated soil. We found no relation between carbon content of uncultivated soil and the percentage lost following cultivation.     

The impact of nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in European forests and forest soils

An estimate of net carbon (C) pool changes and long‐term C sequestration in trees and soils was made at more than 100 intensively monitored forest plots (level II plots) and scaled up to Europe based on data for more than 6000 forested plots in a systematic 16 km × 16 km grid (level I plots). C pool changes in trees at the level II plots were based on repeated forest growth surveys At the level I plots, an estimate of the mean annual C pool changes was derived from stand age and available site quality characteristics. C sequestration, being equal to the long‐term C pool changes accounting for CO₂ emissions because of harvest and forest fires, was assumed 33% of the overall C pool changes by growth. C sequestration in the soil were based on calculated nitrogen (N) retention (N deposition minus net N uptake minus N leaching) rates in soils, multiplied by the C/N ratio of the forest soils, using measured data only (level II plots) or a combination of measurements and model calculations (level I plots). Net C sequestration by forests in Europe (both trees and soil) was estimated at 0.117 Gton yr^?1, with the C sequestration in stem wood being approximately four times as high (0.094 Gton yr^?1) as the C sequestration in the soil (0.023 Gton yr^?1). The European average impact of an additional N input on the net C sequestration was estimated at approximately 25 kg C kg^?1 N for both tree wood and soil. The contribution of an average additional N deposition on European forests of 2.8 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 in the period 1960–2000 was estimated at 0.0118 Gton yr^?1, being equal to 10% of the net C sequestration in both trees and soil in that period (0.117 Gton yr^?1). The C sequestration in trees increased from Northern to Central Europe, whereas the C sequestration in soil was high in Central Europe and low in Northern and Southern Europe. The result of this study implies that the impact of forest management on tree growth is most important in explaining the C pool changes in European forests.