岷山地区大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)生境影响因子连通性及主导因子

岷山地区是大熊猫保护的关键地区。运用图论分析法研究了岷山地区大熊猫生境影响因子,及其相互作用关系。结果表明：在岷山地区,12个影响因子66对组合中,47.0％的影响因子间存在直接的联系,其中89.2％的影响具有增大效应,这说明人类活动对大熊猫生境的影响具有协同增大效应,并占主导地位。研究发现,在影响因子关系集中,存在强连通性的子集K＝{ (TD);(RB);(MI); (HPL);(AP);(AD);(SR);(TH);（FC）},这表明近期进行的旅游景点开发,公路建设,采矿,高压电线走廊建设,以及传统的农业开发, 畜牧业, 薪柴采集等影响因子之间存在着强烈相互作用关系,这些人类活动还会将其他人类活动对大熊猫生境的影响放大,加剧其对大熊猫生境的不利影响,是影响岷山地区大熊猫生境的主导因素。研究还表明如果不能对主导因子进行有效的控制,很难有效地保护岷山地区大熊猫生境。研究表明图论分析法是研究大熊猫生境影响因子的一个有效工具,有助于明确影响熊猫生境的主导和关键因子,为制定有效的大熊猫保护策略提供科学依据。     

岷山地区大熊猫生境评价与保护对策研究

综合运用大熊猫生物学与行为生态学研究成果、遥感数据分析与地理信息系统技术 ,在系统研究岷山地区大熊猫生境分布、生境质量与空间格局的基础上 ,明确岷山地区保护大熊猫的关键区域 ,分析岷山地区大熊猫保护与自然保护区建设的对策 ,以期为岷山地区大熊猫保护及其与岷山地区资源开发与发展的协调提供依据。遥感数据分析结果表明 ,岷山地区以森林为主 ,各类森林面积 1 91 790 3.4 4 hm2 ,占 5 5 .4 2 % ,将与大熊猫生境密切相关的森林植被分为常绿阔叶林、落叶阔叶林、针阔混交林、亚高山针叶林等 ,其中亚高山针叶林面积 5 380 4 9.6 4 hm2 ,占全部森林的占 2 8.0 5 % ,落叶阔叶林面积 4 6 1 35 5 .6 7hm2 ,占2 4 .0 6 % ,针阔混交林面积 4 0 30 36 .2 6 hm2 ,占 2 1 .0 1 %。结果表明岷山地区有大熊猫潜在生境 1 32 3789.1 5 hm2 ,由于森林资源利用、交通、农业活动影响、居民薪柴砍伐 ,以及生境破碎化与生境隔离等导致的生境丧失 5 5 341 3.4 5 hm2 ,目前尚存的大熊猫适宜生境 770 375 .7hm2 ,由于交通等隔离而成为至少 5个相互分隔的生境单元 ,大熊猫种群交流受到严重阻碍。为了有效地保护岷山大熊猫 ,首先应充分注意到各种人类活动 ,尤其交通的建设对大熊猫生境的影响 ;其次要扩大自然保护区范围 ,     

岷山山系大熊猫自然保护区2003年生物多样性监测

岷山山系是全球生物多样性保护的热点地区之一,有着全世界最大的大熊猫种群和面积最大的大熊猫栖息地。到2003年底,在该地区已建立了20个以保护大熊猫为主的自然保护区。从2003年开始,岷山17个大熊猫自然保护区实施了野外大熊猫及其栖息地监测。通过监测,了解了岷山自然保护区野生动物分布状况、人为活动对自然保护区的干扰情况,以及自然保护区周边社区经济情况,为自然保护区管理决策提供了依据。同时,通过监测活动还提高了自然保护区工作人员的业务水平。建议今后将自然保护区监测工作纳入自然保护区日常工作中。     

农用地时空变化对大熊猫生境的影响:以岷山中部地区的白草河流域为例

岷山中部地区是我国野生大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)种群分布密度较高的地区之一,但近年来砍伐森林、种植药材等农业活动较为突出,可能对大熊猫及其生境利用造成不利影响.为了明确该地区农用地的时空变化特征,及其对保护区内外大熊猫生境的影响,我们采用遥感影像解析、GIS空间分析和野外调查相结合的方法在白草河流域进行了本项研究.结果表明.该流域的农用地主要分布在海拔1,700 m以下的地区.从1994-2008年,农用地面积呈现先减少后增加的趋势:1994-2001年间,农用地面积减少,减少区域主要在海拔1,700 m以下的地区;2001-2008年间,农用地面积增加明显,增加区域主要在海拔1,700m以上的高海拔地区和自然保护区周边.农用地扩张直接导致1994-2008年间该地区5,281 hm2(6.46%)的大熊猫生境丧失.就保护区内外而言,保护区外部大熊猫生境的丧失比例达21.53%,而保护区内部的生境变化不大.为了有效保护该地区的大熊猫生境,除了禁止在自然保护区内部进行开发外,建议对保护区外部的大熊猫生境进行保护,禁止在海拔1,700 m以上的高海拔地区进行土地开发.     

岷山、邛崃山山系大熊猫栖息地生态安全综合评价

【目的】岷山与邛崃山系是大熊猫的重要栖息地,但由于该地区干扰、栖息地破碎化等原因,野生大熊猫的生存和种群复壮仍然存在风险。基于大熊猫习性和生存需求来评价其栖息地生态安全,对于更好地保护野生大熊猫种群、明确保护的地理重点,具有重要现实意义。【方法】以岷山山系、邛崃山山系范围内各市、区、县为对象,收集并选择最新的社会、地理、生物三大类目中具有代表性的12个因子作为评价指标,运用层次分析法和主成分分析法相结合的方法对该地区大熊猫栖息的生态安全进行综合评价。【结果】岷山、邛崃山中部的平武县、宝兴县的生态安全指数最高;彭州市、都江堰市和邛崃县等成都的周边地区生态安全指数较低,主要原因是人类活动的影响;都江堰市北部和汶川县域内为大熊猫的重要栖息地,但其生态安全指数较低,需要进一步的保护、管理和恢复;平武中部、松潘、茂县等地区生态安全指数较高,可作为大熊猫潜在栖息地进行保护。【结论】岷山大熊猫栖息地的生态安全指数总体上高于邛崃山系,但都存在明显的空间异质性。本研究结果可为野生大熊猫生态廊道的建设、圈养大熊猫放归地点选择等工作提供科学依据。     

生态位因子分析在大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)生境评价中的应用

生态位因子分析是研究物种地理分布的一种多变量分析方法,其最大优点是模型计算只需物种"出现点"的数据,而不需要"非出现点"数据,在生境评价与生境预测中得到广泛应用.将该方法应用于大熊猫生境适宜性评价中,利用大熊猫活动痕迹点和遥感数据分析了平武县大熊猫生境分布现状,综合评价了该县自然保护区的分布状况和存在的保护空缺.研究结果表明,大熊猫偏好在中高海拔(＞2128 m)的针叶林和针阔混交林中活动,而避免在落叶阔叶林和灌丛林中活动,避免在有人为干扰的地区活动,农田是对大熊猫活动影响强度最大的人为干扰因子.平武县大熊猫生境主要分布在该县西部和北部地区,总面积为234033 hm2,其中适宜生境为106345 hm2,次适宜生境为127688 hm2.目前该县已建的3个大熊猫自然保护区使47.2%的大熊猫生境得到保护(包括49.2%的适宜生境和45.6%的次适宜生境),尽管如此,保护区之间连接性差,存在严重的保护空缺.该县北部的白马乡、木座乡是大熊猫的主要分布区,却没有得到保护区的有效保护,建议在该地区新建自然保护区.     

兰渝高速公路和兰渝铁路对大熊猫活动及其栖息地保护的影响

加快公路、铁路等重大基础交通设施建设是当前扩大内需促进经济增长的一项重要举措.这些基础设施建设将可能对某些珍稀濒危物种产生负面的生态影响.通过实地样方调查和访问调查,初步分析与评价了兰渝高速公路、兰渝铁路的建设与运营对大熊猫活动及其栖息地保护的影响.虽然它们的建设与运营不会影响岷山山系的大熊猫,但将会影响到西秦岭山系青木川+曹家河栖息地的大熊猫.它们不仅由于穿越大熊猫的潜在栖息地而使其栖息地的破碎化加剧,还进一步孤立了青木川+曹家河栖息地的大熊猫种群.然而,现有的公路S206线与大团鱼河等地理障碍所造成的隔离,又使兰渝高速公路和兰渝铁路的建设与运营实际追加的对周边大熊猫种群的隔离影响并不大.由于东北侧临近大熊猫栖息地,道路建设和运营所产生的各种噪音还将可能会影响大熊猫种群在局部区域的活动与扩散.为了更好地保护大熊猫种群及其栖息地,就兰渝高速公路和兰渝铁路的建设提出了相应的管理建议.     

岷山山系南端大熊猫栖息地分布分析

基于大熊猫Ailuropoda melanoleuca野外分布数据及环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型对岷山山系南端的大熊猫适宜栖息地分布进行了预测及分析。结果显示:研究区域内有大熊猫适宜栖息地330.9 km~2,占研究区域内保护区总面积的23.2%;并且龙溪虹口-白水河-九顶山一线的大熊猫的栖息地存在一定的破碎化现象。建议继续加强对大熊猫栖息地的保护,减少人为干扰,促进大熊猫栖息地的恢复,增进各相邻保护区间的沟通交流、数据分享,更准确掌握、了解该区域大熊猫的动态。     

生态位因子分析在大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)生境评价中的应用

生态位因子分析是研究物种地理分布的一种多变量分析方法,其最大优点是模型计算只需物种“出现点”的数据,而不需要“非出现点”数据,在生境评价与生境预测中得到广泛应用。将该方法应用于大熊猫生境适宜性评价中,利用大熊猫活动痕迹点和遥感数据分析了平武县大熊猫生境分布现状,综合评价了该县自然保护区的分布状况和存在的保护空缺。研究结果表明,大熊猫偏好在中高海拔（>2128 m）的针叶林和针阔混交林中活动,而避免在落叶阔叶林和灌丛林中活动,避免在有人为干扰的地区活动,农田是对大熊猫活动影响强度最大的人为干扰因子。平武县大熊猫生境主要分布在该县西部和北部地区,总面积为234033 hm2,其中适宜生境为106345 hm2,次适宜生境为127688 hm2。目前该县已建的3个大熊猫自然保护区使47.2%的大熊猫生境得到保护（包括49.2%的适宜生境和45.6%的次适宜生境）,尽管如此,保护区之间连接性差,存在严重的保护空缺。该县北部的白马乡、木座乡是大熊猫的主要分布区,却没有得到保护区的有效保护,建议在该地区新建自然保护区。     

岷山北部竹类开花状况及对大熊猫的影响调查

2006年12月、2007年7～8月对岷山北部4县的竹类开花及大熊猫活动情况进行了调查.结果表明:(1)该区域竹种单一,仅有华西箭竹Fargesia nitida和缺苞箭竹F.denudata两种竹类,其中华西箭竹的分布面积最大;(2)该区域竹类从2004年开始出现开花现象,到2007年调查时开花过程已基本结束,开花竹面积达73 082 hm2,占竹类分布面积的51.36%;(3)在整个开花过程中,大熊猫实体被发现的频次增加,没有发现病、饿、死大熊猫的个体,现有大熊猫分布在竹类未开花的迭部县东部和舟曲县境内.此次竹类开花枯死,使该区域原有的大面积的大熊猫栖息地消失,因此需要加强对栖息地的保护和研究工作,使之尽快恢复成为大熊猫适合的栖息地.     

Integrating population size analysis into habitat suitability assessment: implications for giant panda conservation in the Minshan Mountains,China

Compared to conventional approaches, the integration of population size analysis with habitat suitability assessment on a large scale can provide more evidence to explain the mechanisms of habitat isolation and fragmentation, and thus make regional conservation plans. In this paper, we analyzed the habitat suitability for giant pandas in the Minshan Mountains, China, using the ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) method, and then evaluated the current conservation status of this endangered species. The results showed that (1) giant pandas were distributed in a narrow altitudinal range in which vegetation cover was dominated by coniferous forest, mixed coniferous and deciduous broadleaf forest, and deciduous broadleaf forest with scattered bamboo understory, and (2) roads and human settlements had strong negative effects on the panda habitat selection. According to habitat analysis, the total habitat area of giant panda in the Minshan Mountains was 953,173 ha, which was fragmented into 12 habitat units by major roads, rivers, and human settlements. The habitat of the mid-Minshan was less fragmentized, but was seriously fragmented in the north. The panda population size estimation showed that 676 individuals inhabited the study area, and 94.53% of them were in the mid-Minshan, but small panda populations less than 30 individuals inhabited the isolated and fragmented habitat patches in the north. The nature reserves in the Minshan Mountains have formed three conservation groups, which covered 41.26% of panda habitat and protected 70.71% of panda population of the study area, but there still exists two conservation gaps, and the connectivity among these reserves is still weak. Due to habitat isolation and extensive human disturbances, giant pandas in the north (i.e., Diebu, Zhouqu, and Wudou) are facing threats of local extinction. In order to protect pandas and their habitats in this area, some effective conservation approaches, such as establishing new reserves in gap areas, creating corridors among patches, and seasonally controlling traffic flux in key roads, should be implemented in the future to link these isolated habitats together.     

Impacts of temperature on giant panda habitat in the north Minshan Mountains

Understanding the impacts of meteorological factors on giant pandas is necessary for future conservation measures in response to global climate change. We integrated temperature data with three main habitat parameters (elevation, vegetation type, and bamboo species) to evaluate the influence of climate change on giant panda habitat in the northern Minshan Mountains using a habitat assessment model. Our study shows that temperature (relative importance = 25.1%) was the second most important variable influencing giant panda habitat excepting the elevation. There was a significant negative correlation between temperature and panda presence (ρ = −0.133, P < 0.05), and the temperature range preferred by giant pandas within the study area was 18–21°C, followed by 15–17°C and 22–24°C. The overall suitability of giant panda habitats will increase by 2.7%, however, it showed a opposite variation patterns between the eastern and northwestern region of the study area. Suitable and subsuitable habitats in the northwestern region of the study area, which is characterized by higher elevation and latitude, will increase by 18007.8 hm² (9.8% habitat suitability), while the eastern region will suffer a decrease of 9543.5 hm² (7.1% habitat suitability). Our results suggest that increasing areas of suitable giant panda habitat will support future giant panda expansion, and food shortage and insufficient living space will not arise as problems in the northwest Minshan Mountains, which means that giant pandas can adapt to climate change, and therefore may be resilient to climate change. Thus, for the safety and survival of giant pandas in the Baishuijiang Reserve, we propose strengthening the giant panda monitoring program in the west and improving the integrity of habitats to promote population dispersal with adjacent populations in the east.     

汶川地震对都江堰地区大熊猫生境的影响

为了明确汶川地震破坏区的空间分布特征及其对大熊猫生境的影响,选择在都江堰地区采用遥感数据解译和GIS模型分析相结合的方法进行了此项研究。研究结果表明：汶川地震及其产生的滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害造成的植被破坏区面积为12862hm^2,其中78．64％的破坏区位于龙溪虹口自然保护区内部。地震破坏区在空间上主要分布在海拔1400—2400m,坡度20～55&#176;之间的山坡上。地震造成都江堰地区21．63％的大熊猫生境丧失,其中海拔2200～3000m之间的大熊猫生境丧失比例较大。大熊猫生境破碎化程度严重,震后的生境斑块数量是震前的7．7倍。龙溪虹口自然保护区的大熊猫生境丧失更为严重,其丧失比例为32．15％,而保护区外部的大熊猫生境丧失较轻,其丧失比例为9．83％。地震造成该地区大熊猫生境丧失严重,生境破碎化加剧,为了增加大熊猫可利用的生境,在震后恢复重建中应当避免在大熊猫生境中开展旅游。     

卧龙自然保护区大熊猫生境评价

生物的生境是指生物生活繁衍的场所,由生物与非生物环境构成。近几个世纪以来,物种绝灭的速度加快,生物多样性丧失最重要的原因是生物生境的人为破坏。对保持生物的生境评价,是分析这些物种种群减少,濒危原因的重要手段,还能为制定合理的保护对策提供依据。根据大熊猫生境分布特点提出了大熊猫生境结构理论模型,将影响卧龙大熊猫生境质量的因素分为物理环境因素、生物环境因素和人类活动因素,探讨了生境评价的程序与卧龙大熊猫生境评价准则,运用地理信息系统技术与空间模拟方法分析了卧龙大熊猫生境质量。在人类活动影响下,卧龙自然保护区内适宜大熊猫生存的生境面积有57597.3hm^2,其中最适生境面积为6256.1hm^2,主要分布在海拔2300－2800m的平缓山坡与台地。     

汶川地震对四川龙溪—虹口和唐家河自然保护区大熊猫栖息地利用格局的影响

2008年的汶川地震发生在大熊猫集中分布的区域,对大熊猫的栖息地造成了严重破坏.利用龙溪—虹口和唐家河两个国家级自然保护区地震前(2003～ 2007)和地震后(2008～ 2010)共计7年的大熊猫监测数据,就汶川地震对大熊猫栖息地利用格局的影响进行了分析.研究结果表明:(1)地震前5年,大熊猫对栖息地的利用格局在年间没有显著变化;(2)地震后的2年间,大熊猫对栖息地的利用格局在年间没有显著变化;(3)地震前后连续7年调查的样线中,大熊猫对栖息地的利用格局在年间没有显著变化;(4)在龙溪一虹口保护区,大熊猫对样线的利用与滑坡体的面积没有显著关系,即大熊猫对栖息地的空间利用没有受到滑坡体面积大小的显著影响;(5)虽然从现有资料发现地震对大熊猫栖息地的利用格局没有显著的影响,但仍然需要在震后加强对大熊猫及其栖息地的保护.     

Nature reserve group planning for conservation of giant pandas in North Minshan, China

Formation of nature reserve groups (NRGs) is an important approach for optimising spatial patterns in nature reserves and for improving the efficiency of nature reserve networks. In this study, based on habitat evaluation and connectivity analysis, the approach and method for optimising spatial patterns and functional zoning of reserves were analysed using the case study of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) reserves in North Minshan. Results indicated that five panda nature reserves had been established, which formed a reserve group and covered 48.4% of panda habitat and three of five population components. Although the nature reserves were connected to each other, core zones were divided into seven isolated areas. These divisions can reduce the efficiency of protecting giant pandas in reserve systems. To optimise spatial patterns in nature reserves, one new reserve is proposed and it is recommended that core zones be expanded and merged into two areas, in accordance with the spatial distribution of the panda population. Three linkage areas are also proposed—for facilitating panda exchange and movement among different populations. The study is expected to provide a scientific basis for planning the development of nature reserves in this mountain range, to promote the establishment of nature reserve groups in other areas, and to optimise entire nature reserve systems in China.     

Important population viability analysis parameters for giant pandas (Aliuropoda melanoleuca)

Population viability analysis(PVA) is a tool to evaluate the risk of extinction for endangered species and aid conservation decision-making.The quality of PVA output is dependent on parameters related to population dynamics and life-history;however,it has been difficult to collect this information for the giant panda(Aliuropoda melanoleuca),a rare and endangered mammal native to China,confined to some 30 fragmented habitat patches.Since giant pandas are long-lived,mature late,have lower reproductive rates,and show little sexual dimorphism,obtaining data to perform adequate PVA has been difficult.Here,we develop a parameter sensitivity index by modeling the dynamics of six giant panda populations in the Minshan Mountains,in order to determine the parameters most influential to giant panda populations.Our data shows that the giant panda populations are most sensitive to changes in four female parameters:initial breeding age,reproductive rate,mortality rate between age 0 and 1,and mortality rate of adults.The parameter sensitivity index strongly correlated with initial population size,as smaller populations were more sensitive to changes in these four variables.This model suggests that demographic parameters of females have more influence on the results of PVA,indicating that females may play a more important role in giant panda population dynamics than males.Consequently,reintroduction of female individuals to a small giant panda population should be a high priority for conservation efforts.Our findings form a technical basis for the coming program of giant panda reintroduction,and inform which parameters are crucial to successfully and feasibly monitoring wild giant panda populations.     

Impacts of Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors on Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Panda Habitat

Demographic and socioeconomic factors of individual people and households may have significant impacts on their environment, which in turn may affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of wildlife habitat and local biodiversity. In the Wolong Nature Reserve (China) for giant panda conservation, local households live a rural lifestyle that has caused forest degradation by activities such as cutting fuelwood. Based on field data and a spatial agent-based model that integrates cross-scale data and cross-discipline models, we examine how panda habitat would respond to changes in a set of socioeconomic and demographic factors individually, and under a conservation scenario and a development scenario (setting factors to values that would benefit or degrade habitat, respectively). The model simulates each family member's life history (including needs, attitudes, and activities) and the household agents' interactions with each other and with the environment through their activities over 30 years. Our simulations show that among all the factors under consideration, providing cheaper electricity and changing the age structure through increasing marriage age or prolonging the interval between consecutive births could change habitat quantity significantly (at α = 0.05 level); and the differences in panda habitat between the two scenarios escalate over time. In addition to benefiting local policy-making, this study provides a new approach to studying human–environment interactions from the perspectives of individual needs and decisions.