年龄鉴定的转换分析法及其在月家庄墓地人骨中的应用

转换分析是一种基于贝叶斯统计的人骨年龄鉴定新方法,具有综合多种年龄标志物、不受参考样本影响、适用于老年个体等优势。本文将其用于陕西洛川月家庄墓地人骨年龄鉴定并与传统方法进行对比。结果表明,两种方法构建出的人群死亡年龄结构、生存过程有显著差异：转换分析得到的最高寿命、平均死亡年龄明显高于传统方法,更多个体可存活至中老年。两种方法鉴定出的年龄差值受样本保存状况、年龄阶段的影响,存在结构性差别。转换分析是人骨年龄鉴定方法的重大创新,使鉴定过程标准化、鉴定误差定量化。未来需使用一些年龄已知的个体开展更多验证研究,以评估该方法对我国人骨样本的适用性及不同软件间的差异。     

生命表法在古人口学中的应用误区

生命表是古人口学发展早期的常用方法,但历来受到许多质疑。其问题主要有：死亡率误区和队列假设的影响,静止人口假设或稳定人口假设问题,模型生命表存在的问题,人骨年龄估计问题和抽样缺陷问题。生命表的意义主要在于其可以直观展示古人口的死亡过程和计算古人口的预期寿命。目前在古人口学中,生命表已逐渐趋于淘汰,而以风险模型为代表的其他方法成为了研究古人口死亡模式的新方法。     

鲫耳石重量与年龄的关系及其在年龄鉴定中的作用

耳石重量在年龄组间重叠较少,大小相近的个体,年龄大的,即生长慢的耳石重量比年龄小的,即生长快的大,不同龄组之间耳石重量有显著差异（P＜0．05）,按年龄组在耳石重量与相应的体长作图,可初步判断观测年龄的可靠性,分析耳石重量频率分布能分离出体长相近,年龄不同的个体,其结构与耳石年轮观测的基本一致,耳石重量与年龄呈显著线性正相关（P＜0．05）,用耳石重量与年龄关系估算的年龄从耳石上直接读取的年龄无显著差异（P＞0．05）,文中对耳石重量直接用于确定鱼类年龄的可能性作了分析和探讨。     

海岱地区大汶口文化时期人口死亡年龄的统计分布特征

人口死亡年龄是揭示一个族群健康状况和社会经济条件的重要指标。本文根据海岱地区大汶口文化时期九个墓地人骨遗存的发掘报告,运用定量统计的方法检验了人口死亡年龄分布特征。发现该区大汶口文化时期人口的死亡年龄分布近似服从正态分布。最后探讨了造成人口低死亡年龄的可能原因,并给出了这一概率分布的数学意义以及在史前人口学中的应用前景。     

广西崇左冲塘新石器遗址人骨和牙齿年龄的组织学鉴定

本研究对广西崇左冲塘新石器时代的４个个体作了组织学切片的年龄鉴定．根据股骨、胫骨骨干的骨单位和骨间板数量的增龄变化证实Ｍ０２、５０９和Ｓ１０的年龄分别是３２岁、１７岁、３５岁（±６岁）．通过牙齿牙骨质生长线的观察证实Ｓ０８是５１岁左右．     

贾湖遗址人骨的元素分析

古代人类食谱分析是生物考古重要组成部分,我国在此方面尚缺乏较为系统的研究。本文利用微量元素分析方法,对河南舞阳贾湖遗址人骨进行了元素分析,根据骨中log(Sr Ca)、log(Ba Ca)的变化,揭示了贾湖先民生活方式从狩猎、采集至稻作农业和家畜驯养的发展过程。同时指出,样品249的log(Sr Ca)、log(Ba Ca)异常,当与其迁徙活动相关。     

耳石在鱼类年龄与生长研究中的应用

有关鱼类耳石的研究已有100多年的历史,目前已形成一个相对独立的研究领域,在多个研究层面上深入开展,但年龄与生长至今仍然是鱼类耳石研究的主要方面。本文分别从耳石的年轮、日轮和重量方面,介绍了当前耳石在鱼类年龄与生长研究中的应用与发展。我们认为,对耳石日轮的研究仍将会是耳石研究的重要方向;相关研究将会逐渐由个体尺度向种群尺度发展,并可为渔业资源的可持续利用提供科学依据。     

花白竹鼠（Rhizomy spruinosus）种群年龄研究

本文对布于广东省北部山区的花白竹鼠标本的体重、体长、尾长、颅全长、颅基长、口盖长、上齿隙长、颧宽、脑颅宽、上颊齿列长、鼻骨长和眼眶长等１２项生长指标进行了相关分析和主分量分析,结果表明：颅全长、口盖长和颅基长等是花白竹鼠最具有代表性的年龄指标,以它们作为花白竹鼠的年龄鉴定指标最为合适。根据颅全长的次数分布以及结合繁殖情况,将花白竹鼠划分为４个相对年龄组     

“区域模型生命表”在古人口学研究中的应用

作为普通生命表的归纳总结,\"模型生命表\"反映了人口发展的普遍现象和内在规律。本文将\"区域模型生命表\"引入古人口学研究,以大甸子墓地为例对婴幼儿组和高龄组死亡人数进行了调整。根据校正后数据所编制的简略生命表,该遗址人口平均预期寿命下降为24.12岁,年龄别死亡率曲线呈更加合理的\"U\"型。鉴于古人口学中样本容量和代表性往往较差,引入\"区域模型生命表\"对偏差数据校正后再进行人口研究将使所得结论更加合理可靠。     

应用多元分析法判断中国人(男性)耻骨联合面年龄的研究

本文对205例年龄在17—40岁的国人男性耻骨标本进行了形态观察,在此基础上选取八处形态观测项目制订了等级评分标准并对205例标本进行了观察评分。采用多元回归分析和数量化理论模式I的方法对数据进行处理,建立了判断中国人(男性)耻骨年龄的回归方程并与Hanihara方法做了比较。统计分析及50例盲测结果表明较国外同类研究结果为佳并具有一定实用价值。     

Multifactorial determination of skeletal age at death: a method and blind tests of its accuracy

Traditional methods of estimating skeletal age at death have relied solely on the pubic symphyseal face or on this indicator combined with others in nonsystematic ways. A multifactorial method is presented that uses a principal components weighting of five indicators (public symphyseal face, auricular surface, radiographs of proximal femur, dental wear, and suture closure). This method has been tested by completely blind assessment of age in two samples from the Todd collection carefully screened for accuracy of stated age at death. Results show a marked superiority of the multifactorial method over any single indicator with respect to both bias and accuracy. This represents the first truly blind test of an age-at-death indicator or system, as the test populations were independent of the system(s) being tested, and the age, sex, and ethnogeographic origin of the individuals being assessed (as well as the compositions of the test samples with respect to these variables) were completely unknown until the tests were completed. Implications for paleodemography are discussed.     

A revised method of age determination using the os pubis, with a review and tests of accuracy of other current methods of pubic symphyseal aging

All current standardized methods of age determination using the os pubis were tested by blind assessment of a skeletal sample with documented ages (from the Todd collection; N = 96). No demographic data (sex, age, race, age composition) were known to the assessors prior to completion of the test. Results showed the Todd method to be more reliable than more recent component techniques and that all systems tended to underage. Therefore, modifications were made of the Todd system to eliminate this and other deficiencies, and a second test using a new sample was conducted (N = 109). The age distribution determined by the revised Todd method did not significantly differ from the actual age distribution of the second sample. Error due to race was nonsignificant. Biological stages of pubic metamorphosis are described and possible evolutionary specializations of the hominid symphysis are discussed. Revised standards for age determination are presented.     

Mathematical hazard models of mortality: an alternative to model life tables

A five-parameter competing hazard model of the age pattern of mortality is described, and methods of fitting it to survivorship, death rate, and age structure data are developed and presented. The methods are then applied to published life table and census data to construct life tables for a Late Woodland population, a Christian period Nubian population, and the Yanomama. The advantage of this approach over the use of model life tables is that the hazard model facilitates life-table construction without imposing a particular age pattern of mortality on the data. This development makes it possible to use anthropological data to extend the study of human variation in mortality patterns to small populations.     

黄胸鼠的年龄鉴定和种群年龄组成

本文经晶体干重法鉴定黄胸鼠的年龄,分析其种群年龄组成,并与其他年龄鉴定方法如体重法、体长法、臼齿磨损法进行了比较。     

Age estimation by dental attrition in an independently controlled early 19th century sample from Zwolle, The Netherlands

This paper reports the investigation of macroscopic aging methods in a skeletal sample from the early 19th century, excavated in The Netherlands and containing a number of individuals of known age and sex. A method is proposed for calibrating age estimations based on dental attrition.     

Life and death in ancient populations: Bones of contention in paleodemography

In a recent articleBocquet-Appel & Masset (1985) renew their criticism of paleodemography and criticizeVan Gerven & Armelagos' (1983) defense of paleodemographic methods. In the present analysis we respond toBocquet-Appel andMasset's criticisms ofVan Gerven andArmelagos and then address the question of whether paleodemographic methods are capable of producing plausible results based on what is known about contemporary human populations. This is done by expanding the life tables previously analysed byVan Gerven and co-workers for the Medieval Christian site of Kulubnarti in Nubia'sBatn el Hajar. The expanded results are then compared to data obtained from contemporary human populations as well as interpreted in light of Nubian culture history.