贵州首次发现的日本松干蚧生物学特性研究

日本松干蚧Matsucoccus matsumurae(Kuwana.)于2014年在贵州省遵义市汇川区及绥阳县首次发现,目前已导致330 ha的马尾松Pinus massoniana死亡.因该虫隐蔽性强,危害症状极易与真菌病害混淆,防治难度极大.为科学制定防控方法,从2019年4月至2021年4月,开展了日本松干蚧每个虫态的形态特征及其生物学特性研究.结果表明:贵州省发现的松干蚧为日本松干蚧,其一年发生2代,以第2代1龄若虫越冬,并以有性生殖繁衍后代,未见孤雌生殖现象,且春秋两季主要依靠风力进行自然传播,具有传播速度快、致死率高等特点.日本松干蚧系首次传入贵州并进入到北纬27°范围,加之黔中及黔北区域又是马尾松的集中分布区,须加强该区域监测预警工作,特别是加强对针叶枯黄、主梢和枝弯曲的马尾松进行识别和鉴定,适时进行卫生伐,除治濒死木,切断传播途径,做好精准防控.     

海南岛尖峰岭热带山地雨林区26年的热量因子变化特征

尖峰岭热带山地雨林作为中国典型的热带森林生态系统,其长期的气候动态状况对研究全球变化具有重要的意义。本文采用海南尖峰岭森林生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站天池气象站1980—2005年的地面常规气象观测资料,分析了尖峰岭热带山地雨林区热因子的变化趋势。结果表明：26年来,林区热因子（平均气温、平均地温、平均最高/最低气温、平均最高/最低地温、极端最高/最低气温、极端最高/最低地温、地气温差、年积温）均呈上升趋势,其中平均气温、平均地温、地气温差、平均最低气温和极端最高/最低地温升高趋势明显,每10年分别增加0.32 ℃、0.59 ℃、0.27 ℃、0.39 ℃、2.03 ℃、1.62 ℃,最低温度的升高趋势都大于最高温度的增长速率,说明尖峰岭热带山地雨林区气候变暖来自于最低温度升高的贡献。     

应用热气流杀虫器大面积防治日本松干蚧的试验报告

一、前言沈阳市辉山风景区油松面积达4万余亩、幼林面积大约5千亩左右。近年来,由于日本松干蚧的危害,严重的影响了林木的正常生长和发育。几年来,沈阳市园林科学研究所与我处共同研究日本松干蚧的综合防治课题,取得了一定的进展。一九八七年辉山风景区管理处应用热气流杀虫器进行了大面积防治日本松干蚧的试验工作,并取得了较好的效果。二、防治试验效果应用试验工作于一九八七年八月九日一九月十五日进行,对525亩油松林进行了防治试验。     

利用GARP生态位模型预测日本松干蚧在中国的地理分布

采用GARP生态位模型预测分析了松属植物的重要入侵害虫日本松干蚧Matsucoccus matsumurae（Kuwana）在中国的潜在地理分布。对现有分布地点的分析表明：日本松干蚧在 我国的扩散蔓延有三个主要阶段, 即零散分布期、逐步扩散期和迅速蔓延期。全国范围内的预测显示：该虫可以在中国27个省、市、自治区生存,主要集中在东北和东部沿海地区;在全国 扩散的趋势是向内陆发展。对辽宁省和吉林省地进一步预测分析验证了该方法的准确性,其蔓 延趋势与全国的预测结果相一致;同时还确定了6个高度危险区和13个影响该虫扩散的关键区。     

1961—2008年华南地区极端气温的非对称变化

选取华南110个测站1961—2008年逐日最高、最低气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了华南年和季极端最高、最低气温的时空变化特征。结果表明:近48年华南年极端最高、最低气温均呈明显增温趋势,年极端最高、最低气温分别在2003年、1978年发生突变,极端最高、最低气温存在非对称性变化;年极端最低气温的线性增温速率(0.48℃.10a-1)明显高于极端最高气温(0.20℃.10a-1)的线性增温速率;华南极端最高、最低气温的四季变化存在明显差异,极端最高气温在春季增温明显,而极端最低气温在夏季、冬季增温明显;华南极端气温变化存在明显的地区差异,珠江三角洲、粤东南沿海和海南部分地区增温最明显,而在冬季,极端最高气温在广西西北部地区降温明显。     

日本松干蚧的重要天敌——隐斑瓢虫的初步研究

隐斑瓢虫是近年来在杭州地区发现的日本松干蚧的一种重要捕食性天敌。该虫在杭州一年发生四代,其年发生规律基本上和日本松干蚧的生活周期相吻合,而且能在松林中形成比较稳定的群落。根据测定,隐斑瓢虫对日本松干蚧各虫态的捕食能力较强,一头成虫的日平均捕食量为:显露若虫13.33头,雌成虫4.27头,卵囊3.67个(每个卵囊内平均有卵265.5粒),雄蛹28.27只;一头幼虫全期(或2—4龄和3—4龄)分别能捕食显露若虫39.20—105.56头,雌成虫40.80—47.79头,卵囊39.38—41.79个,雄蛹220.50只。它在引进辽宁省沈阳和旅大地区后,不仅仍能正常的捕食日本松干蚧(显露若虫),其成虫和幼虫喂以各种蚜虫均能正常生殖和发育,并且一年可以繁殖三代:冬季,只要在0℃以上的温度条件下,给予少量的糖水等作补充营养,亦能安全的越冬。据此,作者认为隐斑瓢虫在浙江杭州和辽宁,均具有作为控制日本松干蚧的发生来加以饲养繁殖与利用的价值。     

近60年广西北部湾红树林生态区气候变化及其影响因素

利用广西北部湾红树林生态区6个市（县）的国家气象观测站1961-2019年气象资料以及海平面资料,分析近60年来该生态区基本气候要素、极端天气气候事件及海平面的变化趋势及其对红树林的影响,并分析未来气候变化对区域红树植物可能造成的影响。结果表明：北部湾红树林生态区年平均气温、年平均最低气温升高,高温日数增多,低温日数和年降水量变化趋势不明显。最长连续无降水日数多数市（县）变化趋势不明显;年霜冻日数减少;热带气旋影响个数减少但平均强度呈微弱增大趋势;大风日数减少;海平面呈缓慢上升趋势。根据RegCM4区域气候模式预估,未来40年（2021-2060年）,在RCP4.5情景下,相对于参照时段（1986-2005年）,该生态区年平均气温将上升0.9-1.4℃,年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温均升高,高温日数增多、低温日数减少;年降水量将增多1%-2%;最长连续无降水日数增多;霜冻日数减少;预计未来30年,广西沿海的海平面较2019年上升40-160mm。年平均气温和极端气温的升高以及冬季低温日数和霜冻日数的减少将有利于热带红树植物的北扩;夏季高温导致的蒸发加剧及夏秋季最长连续无降水日数增多,可能加剧红树林病虫害。极端灾害性天气气候事件、海平面上升和人为影响等多重作用会对红树林分布格局产生重大影响,导致红树林生态退化风险增大。     

1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势

利用东北地区96个气象站1961-2005年的日平均气温和日降水量资料,采用线性倾向率法,累积距平法,Mann-Kendall法和Morlet小波分析等方法,对东北地区近45年来的气候变化和突变现象进行了研究.结果表明:近45年来,东北地区年平均气温变化在2.45-5.72℃之间,年均温呈现显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.38 ℃/10 a(P＜0.01),1988-1989年间发生了由低温到高温的突变;东北地区四季平均气温均呈现增高的趋势,其中冬季气温增幅最大,气候倾向率达到0.53℃/10 a,夏季气温增幅最小,0.24 ℃/10 a.东北地区年均温和季节均温年代际变化亦呈现明显的增暖趋势,年均温,春季均温和冬季均温均在1981-1990年开始变暖,夏季均温和秋季均温在1991-2000年开始变暖.东北地区气温增暖幅度随纬度的升高而增大,大兴安岭北部和小兴安岭地区是增温最明显的地区,增暖幅度较小的地区为辽河平原,辽东半岛和长白山南部地区.东北地区年降水量变化在430.40-678.72 mm之间,降水量变化趋势不明显,整体呈现减少趋势,气候倾向率为-5.71 mm/10 a(P＞0.05),1981-1990年为降水最多的年代,1982-1983年间发生了降水量由少到多的突变.四季降水量变化呈现不同的趋势,其中春季和冬季降水量呈现增多的趋势,夏季和秋季降水量呈现减少的趋势.降水量减少较明显的地区为辽东半岛和长白山南段,降水量增多较明显的地区为大兴安岭北部和松嫩平原.Morlet小波分析结果表明,东北地区年平均气温存在11a的强显著周期,此外还有24 a和6a尺度的变化周期;东北地区年降水量存在16a的强显著周期和6 a的小尺度变化周期.通过以上分析,近45 a东北地区总体气候呈现明显暖干化趋势.     

黄土高原极端气温变化特征及其与平均气温的相关性

近几十年来,黄土高原极端气候频发,研究和预测极端气候的发生显得尤为重要。目前,关于极端气候的研究多关注事件本身的变化特征,而忽略了平均气温与其变化趋势的相关分析。本研究基于1986—2019年黄土高原79个气象站的逐日最高气温、最低气温和平均气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验以及Pearson相关分析方法,对黄土高原地区极端气温的变化趋势及其与平均气温的相关性进行研究。结果表明: 研究期间,黄土高原地区极端气温暖指数呈显著上升趋势,冷指数呈显著下降趋势,极端高温事件发生频率增加;大多极端气温指数在20世纪90年代中后期和2012年发生突变,且极端气温在1998—2012年整体呈现下降趋势,较好地响应了全球变暖停滞现象;平均气温在西部黄土高塬沟壑区、土石山区及河谷平原区的上升趋势较其他区域明显,且极端气温指数大幅变化趋势的站点几乎都发生在平均气温大幅上升的区域;平均气温的小幅上升显著增加了极端高温事件发生的频率,其中,极端低温的变化幅度和速率大于极端高温,气候变暖对极端气温指数产生了不同影响,平均气温的微小变化使得黄土高原整体气候分布向着更易发生热浪的方向转移。     

大连气候变暖及其对农业的影响

选取大连地区7个观测站1961—2007年历年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0 ℃积温、≥10 ℃积温、<0 ℃负积温和无霜冻等指标,统计分析了近47年其变化特征,研究了大连地区热量资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明: 月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0 ℃积温、≥10 ℃积温1988—2007年比1961—1987年的平均值明显增高(多),尤以最低气温增幅最大,冬季升温幅度大于夏季,大连地区气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献;<0 ℃负积温绝对值明显减少;初霜推后,终霜提前,无霜期日数增多;20世纪80年代后期大连气候明显变暖,尤其是21世纪初异常偏暖事件频发,热量资源增加,对冬季大棚蔬菜等设施农业的生产有利,病虫等越冬存活率上升,农业投入增加,气候变暖对大连地区农业影响是利弊并存。     

西南高山地区净生态系统生产力时空动态

西南高山地区生态系统类型丰富、地形复杂,是响应全球气候变化的重点区域,对全球气候变化具有重要的指示作用.应用生态系统模型(Carbon Exchange between Vegetation,Soil,and the Atmosphere,CEVSA)模型估算了1954-2010年西南高山地区净生态系统生产力(NEP)的时空变化,分析了其对气候变化的响应.结果表明:(1)1954-2010年西南高山地区NEP平均为29.7gC·m-2·a-1,其中低海拔地区常绿针叶林和常绿阔叶林NEP较高,而高海拔地区的草地覆盖类型NEP较低.(2)西南高山地区NEP总量的变动范围为-8.36-29.4Tg C/a,平均每年吸收碳15.4Tg C;NEP年际下降趋势显著(P＜0.05),平均每年减少0.187Tg C,下降显著的区域占研究地区总面积的35.2％ (P＜0.05),其中草地(-0.526 g C·m-2·a-2,P＜0.01)和常绿针叶林(-0.691g C·m-2·a-2,P＜0.01)下降趋势极为显著.(3)年NEP总量的年际变化与年平均温度呈负相关(r=-0.454,P＜0.01),与年降水量呈正相关(r=0.708,P＜0.01),与温度显著负相关的区域占60.3％ (P＜0.05),与降水显著正相关的区域占52.1％(P＜0.05),其中草地和常绿针叶林均与温度极显著负相关(r=-0.603,P＜0.01;r=-0.485,P＜0.01),而与降水量极显著正相关(r=0.554,P＜0.01; r=0.749,P＜0.01).(4)西南高山地区是明显的碳汇区,但是由于土壤异养呼吸(HR,heterotrophic respiration)的增长速度大于净初级生产力(NPP,net primary production)的增长速度,最近20a有部分地区开始由碳汇转为碳源.     

Modern pollen assemblages as climate indicators in southern Europe

Aim and Location Our aim is to develop pollen–climate inference models for southern Europe and to test their performance and inference power by cross‐validation with modern climate data. Surface sediments collected from lakes along a climate gradient from the winter‐cold/summer‐wet Alps to winter‐wet/summer‐dry Sicily were analysed for modern pollen assemblages. Methods For each lake, mean monthly temperatures, seasonal precipitation and site‐specific climate uncertainties have been estimated. Pollen–climate relationships were studied using numerical analyses, and inference models were derived by partial least squares (PLS) and weighted‐averaging PLS (WA‐PLS) regressions for January and July temperatures (T), and for winter, spring and summer precipitation (P). In order to assess whether these variables are also of ecological importance for vegetation in the subregions, we split the data set into an Alpine and a Mediterranean subset. Results Low bootstrap cross‐validated root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for January T (1.7 °C), July T (2.1 °C) and summer P (38 mm), as well as low RMSEPs expressed as a percentage of the gradient length (8–9%), indicate a good inference power. Models revealed excellent to good performance statistics for January T, July T and summer P (r²= 0.8), and for winter and spring P (r²=c. 0.5). We show that the variables with the highest explanatory power differ between the two subregions. These are summer T and P for the Alpine set, and January T, winter P and July T for the Mediterranean set. Main conclusions The study reveals the influence of climatic conditions during the growing season on modern pollen assemblages and indicates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions of parameters such as winter precipitation and temperature, which seem to be the main factors having an influence on the variability of Mediterranean climate. These models may therefore provide important information on past regional climate variability in southern Europe.     

An analysis of long-term winter data on phytoplankton and zooplankton in Neusiedler See,a shallow temperate lake,Austria

In the last 40 years, the shallow steppe lake, Neusiedler See, was ice covered between 0 and 97 days. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well as the Mediterranean Oscillation affected the lake and its conditions during winter. Both climate indices correlated negatively with the duration of ice cover and the timing of ice-out. Average winter phytoplankton biomass increased from less than 0.2 (0.05–0.84) mg FM l^?1 in the late 1960s/beginning of 1970s to 3.1 (1.72–5.61) mg FM l^?1 in the years 2001–2004. The increase in annual winter biomass of phytoplankton was associated with a significant shift in the composition of the algal assemblage. In the winter 1997/1998, diatoms contributed between 40 and 80% to the phytoplankton biomass while in 2006/2007 cyanoprokaryotes contributed 46%. Mean chlorophyll-a concentrations during winter were significantly correlated with those of total phosphorus (P_tot). Together with cold-water species (rotifer Rhinoglena fertöensis), perennial, eurythermal ones (copepod Arctodiaptomus spinosus) contributed to the zooplankton community. High zooplankton numbers were encountered when rotifers, particularly when densities of Rhinoglena fertöensis were high (r ² = 0.928). Zooplankton abundance and biomass varied from year to year but correlated positively with Chl-a (biomass ? r ² = 0.69; numbers ? r ² = 0.536). Winter zooplankton populations were primarily influenced by winter conditions, but in early winter also by survival of autumn populations, i.e., the more adults of Arctodiaptomus spinosus survived into winter, the higher was the zooplankton biomass in early winter. Phyto- and zooplankton dynamics in shallow lakes of the temperate region seem to critically depend on the biomass in autumn and on winter conditions, specifically on ice conditions and thus are related to climate signals such as the NAO.     

A comparison of surface and rectal temperatures between sheared and non-sheared alpacas (Lama pacos)

The objective of this research was to determine if whole-body shearing would effect gross thermoregulation in alpacas. Eight mature, intact male alpacas were randomly assigned to one of two groups and maintained in outdoor pastures with adequate artificial shade from June through August (summer climate) in east central Alabama, USA. Group one animals (N=4) were sheared to remove all fiber to within 2 cm of their skin. Group 2 animals (N=4) were left non-sheared. Sheared alpacas tended to have lower rectal temperatures during high ambient temperatures than did non-sheared alpacas (P=0.06). Thermographic studies of the scrotum revealed cooler surface temperatures in sheared versus non-sheared alpacas (P=0.05). Temperatures in the right medial thigh of sheared animals were 0.9°C cooler than the thigh region of non-sheared animals in the morning (P<0.03). Right medial thigh temperatures were 1.6°C cooler in sheared alpacas in the afternoon (P<0.01). Significant positive correlations were found in non-sheared animals between ambient temperature and rectal temperature in the morning (r=0.612, P=0.014). In sheared animals during the morning significant positive correlations were established between the Heat Stress Index (HSI) and the right medial thigh surface temperatures (r=0.648, P=0.003), the HSI and rectal temperature (r=0.729, P=0.0003), the ambient temperature and right medial thigh surface temperature (r=0.485, P=0.04), and the ambient temperature and the rectal temperature (r=0.823, P<0.0001). In the afternoon a significant positive correlation was found in the sheared alpacas between the HSI and the right medial thigh surface temperature, rectal temperature and surface scrotal temperature (r=0.538, P=0.02, r=0.543, P=0.019 and r=0.522, P=0.045), respectively. These data indicate that whole-body shearing of alpacas could have a beneficial effect on thermoregulation when used as a preventative measure against heat stress. Shearing may assist heat dissipation resulting in a cooler surface body temperature and rectal temperature in alpacas when challenged by the heat and humidity experienced in the summer months in the southeastern United States.     

鄱阳湖区灰鹤越冬种群数量与分布动态及其影响因素

1998—2011年,采用地面同步调查法开展了鄱阳湖越冬灰鹤种群监测,并整合1984—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区历年的越冬灰鹤最大种群数量,分析了鄱阳湖灰鹤越冬种群动态以及影响其数量变化与空间分布的环境因素。结果表明,近13年来鄱阳湖区越冬灰鹤种群平均数量为(2 335±651)只,种群数量呈增长趋势,2011年冬季记录到最大种群数量7 640只。灰鹤越冬种群数量与10月平均最低气温以及10月平均气温存在显著正相关,与10月平均最大风速存在显著负相关,与各月的平均水位没有显著的相关性。每年冬季灰鹤在鄱阳湖呈聚集型分布。大湖池、大莲子湖、三湖、汉池湖、企湖、珠湖、南湖(共青)、大汊湖等8个湖泊是灰鹤的重点活动区,(74.9±5.6)%的越冬灰鹤分布在保护区之外。灰鹤的空间分布与滩地面积存在显著的正相关,与农田面积、人口密度、村庄数量、8月份初级生产力、11月份初级生产力等环境因子存在显著负相关。滩地面积是影响灰鹤空间分布的重要因子,对灰鹤利用频次空间变化的解释率为15.0%,与11月份初级生产力共同解释了灰鹤年平均群体数量空间变化的24.6%。如竞争、小生境结构、干扰等局地尺度的环境要素对灰鹤空间分布的影响研究将有助于更全面地认识鄱阳湖越冬灰鹤种群动态的影响机制。     

中国东北地区近50年净生态系统生产力的时空动态

东北地区处于我国最高纬度地区,是全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一,研究东北地区净生态系统生产力对气候变化的响应,对阐明北半球中高纬度陆地生态系统碳源汇格局具有重要意义。基于CEVSA(Carbon Exchange between Vegetation,Soil and Atomasphere)模型,对1961—2010年东北地区净生态系统生产力NEP的时空格局及变化趋势进行分析,并探讨了气候变化与区域碳源汇的关系。结果表明:(1)1961—2010年,东北地区年NEP总量在-0.094PgC/a—0.117PgC/a之间波动,年平均0.026PgC/a,占全国NEP总量的15%—37%。过去50年东北区域NEP没有明显的线性变化趋势,20世纪80年代碳吸收量最高,20世纪90年代后碳吸收量开始下降。(2)东北地区NEP的空间分布呈现出东部高,西部和中部低,北部高,南部低的空间格局。过去50年来,碳源区向大气释放的碳量在减少,碳汇区从大气吸收的碳也在减少。(3)NEP的年际变化与温度呈负相关(r=-0.343,P0.05),与降水呈显著正相关(r=0.859,P0.01),东北地区NEP和年降水量的变化规律基本一致,即同期上升或达到最高值,温度和降水共同作用导致东北地区NEP的年际变化,而年降水量的变化对NEP年际变化起主要作用。在空间上,东北地区NEP与降水呈极显著正相关(P0.01)的面积占研究区域总面积的91.5%,与温度呈显著负相关(P0.05)的面积占31.6%,降水也是决定NEP空间分布的最主要因子。(4)升温伴随降水增加导致1961—1990年NEP呈增加趋势,而其后升温伴随降水减少则是近20年东北区域碳汇能力减弱的重要原因。     

Does hut climate matter for piglet survival in organic production?

Piglet mortality in outdoor production systems varies across the year, and a reason for this variation could be fluctuations in hut climate, as ambient temperature might influence piglet survival, both directly and indirectly. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to investigate the impact of farrowing hut climate and year variation on stillbirth and liveborn mortality. A large-scale observational study was conducted at five commercial organic pig-producing herds in Denmark from June 2015 to August 2016. Both year variation (F_3,635=4.40, P=0.004) and farrowing hut temperature (F_2,511=6.46, P=0.002) affected the rate of stillbirths. The risk of stillborn piglets was lowest in winter and during this season larger changes in hut temperature between day 1 prepartum and the day of farrowing increased the risk of stillbirths (F_1,99=6.39, P=0.013). In addition, during the warm part of the year stillbirth rate increased at temperatures ⩾27°C. Year variation also affected liveborn mortality (F_3,561=3.86, P=0.009) with a lower rate of liveborn deaths in spring. However, the hut climate did not influence liveborn deaths. Consequently, other factors than hut climate may explain the influence of year variation on liveborn mortality. These could be light differences causing seasonality in reproduction and lactation.     

Climatic factors in the development of radiographic hand osteoarthritis

A study was undertaken to evaluate whether various ethno-territorial samples have different characteristics of radiographic hand osteoarthritis (OA) and to evaluate whether climate is associated with differences in hand OA characteristics.The total sample included 4775 individuals (2220 males and 2555 females), belonging to 12 sub-samples, including 9 ethnic groups, from 10 geographic locations in the former USSR. Ethnicity, latitude, longitude, and climatic parameters (mean temperatures, humidity, and day length of January and July) were collected for each sample. X-rays of the left hand were obtained from each individual. Prevalence of hand OA was evaluated in four age groups (36-40, 41-45, 46-50, and 51-55 years). Using maximum likelihood estimation, the following characters were determined: the mean age of persons having 1 and 5 affected joints—A_m1 and A_m5, and the mean time in which one additional joint was affected—T_m. The difference between samples was evaluated using the χ²-test. The associations between hand OA, and climate were evaluated using Pearson’s correlations.Significant differences in OA characteristics among samples were found. Prevalence of hand OA in the age-group 46-50 showed significant association with longitude (r=0.57, p=0.05) and inter-seasonal temperature amplitude (r=0.77, p=0.0035) and significant negative association with mean temperature of January (r=−0.72, p=0.0089). Significant associations were found between longitude, the mean temperature of January, and inter-seasonal temperature amplitude and age-related hand OA parameters (A_m1 and A_m5).The present study indicates that the differences in characteristics of radiographic hand OA among samples are most likely associated with climatic variation.     

Drivers of Central European urban land snail faunas: the role of climate and local species pool in the representation of native and non-native species

The importance of macroclimate and dispersal limitation in the broad-scale variation of European urban land snail assemblages is likely to differ between native and non-native species because of the southern origin of many non-native snails, often spread by humans. We sampled land snails in each of 32 European cities and compiled from the literature a list of land snail species reported from the surroundings of each city. To quantify the predictive power of climate and local species pools, beta-sim dissimilarity matrices of both native and non-native species were explored using MDS and RDA ordination methods, Mantel tests with bootstrapping of each dataset, and multivariate homogeneity analysis of group variances. We observed no significant relation between the numbers of non-native species found in the cities and their surroundings (p > 0.133), while the percentage of native species in the cities derived from their local species pools decreased significantly with the increasing species richness of local faunas (r_S = ?0.75, p < 0.001). Assemblage variation of urban native species was explained mostly by the difference between mean January and July temperatures (21.3 %), with the major role of July temperature (18.0 %). In contrast, variation of non-native species assemblages was mainly explained by January temperature (19.9 %). The congruence in faunal similarities between the cities and the surrounding areas was higher in native (r = 0.46, p < 0.001) than in non-native species (r = 0.36, p < 0.001). Overall native faunas were significantly more homogeneous than the non-native faunas. Our results suggest that recent climate warming may foster geographical expansions of many non-native land snail species as their distributions are controlled mainly by January temperature.     

Warming increases the spread of an invasive thistle

Background

Global warming and shifted precipitation regimes increasingly affect species abundances and distributions worldwide. Despite a large literature on species'' physiological, phenological, growth, and reproductive responses to such climate change, dispersal is rarely examined. Our study aims to test whether the dispersal ability of a non-native, wind-dispersed plant species is affected by climate change, and to quantify the ramifications for future invasion spread rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We experimentally increased temperature and precipitation in a two-cohort, factorial field study (n = 80). We found an overwhelming warming effect on plant life history: warming not only improved emergence, survival, and reproduction of the thistle Carduus nutans, but also elevated plant height, which increased seed dispersal distances. Using spatial population models, we demonstrate that these empirical warming effects on demographic vital rates, and dispersal parameters, greatly exacerbate spatial spread. Predicted levels of elevated winter precipitation decreased seed production per capitulum, but this only slightly offset the warming effect on spread. Using a spread rate decomposition technique (c*-LTRE), we also found that plant height-mediated changes in dispersal contribute most to increased spread rate under climate change.

Conclusions/Significance

We found that both dispersal and spread of this wind-dispersed plant species were strongly impacted by climate change. Dispersal responses to climate change can improve, or diminish, a species'' ability to track climate change spatially, and should not be overlooked. Methods that combine both demographic and dispersal responses thus will be an invaluable complement to projections of suitable habitat under climate change.