Simulating the rice yield change in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under SRES B2 scenario

As one of the most important crops in China, rice accounts for 18% of the country’s total cultivated area. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and associated climate change may greatly affect the rice productivity. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on rice production is of great significance. This paper aims to examine the potential impacts of future climate change on the rice yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which is one of the most important food production regions in China. Climate data generated by the regional climate Model PRECIS for the baseline (1961–1990) and future (2021–2050) period under IPCC SRES B2 scenario were employed as the input of the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Four experimental schemes were carried out to evaluate the effects of future climate warming, CO₂ fertilization and water managements (i.e., irrigation and rain-fed) on rice production. The results indicated that the average rice growth duration would be shortened by 4 days and the average rice yield would be declined by more than 14% as mean temperature raised by 1.5 °C during the rice growing season in 2021–2050 period under B2 scenario. This negative effect of climate warming was more obvious on the middle and late rice than early rice, since both of them experience higher mean temperature and more extreme high temperature events in the growth period from July to September. The significance effect of the enhanced CO₂ fertilization to rice yield was found under elevated CO₂ concentrations in 2021–2050 period under B2 scenario, which would increase rice yield by more than 10%, but it was still not enough to offset the negative effect of increasing temperature. As an important limiting factor to rice yield, precipitation contributed less to the variation of rice yield than either increased temperature or CO₂ fertilization, while the spatial distribution of rice yield depended on the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature. Compared to the rain-fed rice, the irrigated rice generally had higher rice yield over the study area, since the irrigated rice was less affected by climate change. Irrigation could increase the rice yield by more than 50% over the region north of the Yangtze River, with less contribution to the south, since irrigation can relieve the water stress for rice growing in the north region of the study area. The results above indicated that future climate change would significantly affect the rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Therefore, the adverse effect of future climate change on rice production will be reduced by taking adaptation measures to avoid disadvantages. However, there is uncertainty in the rice production response prediction due to the rice acclimation to climate change and bias in the simulation of rice yield with uncertainty of parameters accompanied with the uncertainty of future climate change scenario.     

Simulating the rice yield change in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under SRES B2 scenario

As one of the most important crops in China, rice accounts for 18% of the country’s total cultivated area. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and associated climate change may greatly affect the rice productivity. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on rice production is of great significance. This paper aims to examine the potential impacts of future climate change on the rice yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which is one of the most important food production regions in China. Climate data generated by the regional climate Model PRECIS for the baseline (1961–1990) and future (2021–2050) period under IPCC SRES B2 scenario were employed as the input of the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Four experimental schemes were carried out to evaluate the effects of future climate warming, CO₂ fertilization and water managements (i.e., irrigation and rain-fed) on rice production. The results indicated that the average rice growth duration would be shortened by 4 days and the average rice yield would be declined by more than 14% as mean temperature raised by 1.5 °C during the rice growing season in 2021–2050 period under B2 scenario. This negative effect of climate warming was more obvious on the middle and late rice than early rice, since both of them experience higher mean temperature and more extreme high temperature events in the growth period from July to September. The significance effect of the enhanced CO₂ fertilization to rice yield was found under elevated CO₂ concentrations in 2021–2050 period under B2 scenario, which would increase rice yield by more than 10%, but it was still not enough to offset the negative effect of increasing temperature. As an important limiting factor to rice yield, precipitation contributed less to the variation of rice yield than either increased temperature or CO₂ fertilization, while the spatial distribution of rice yield depended on the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature. Compared to the rain-fed rice, the irrigated rice generally had higher rice yield over the study area, since the irrigated rice was less affected by climate change. Irrigation could increase the rice yield by more than 50% over the region north of the Yangtze River, with less contribution to the south, since irrigation can relieve the water stress for rice growing in the north region of the study area. The results above indicated that future climate change would significantly affect the rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Therefore, the adverse effect of future climate change on rice production will be reduced by taking adaptation measures to avoid disadvantages. However, there is uncertainty in the rice production response prediction due to the rice acclimation to climate change and bias in the simulation of rice yield with uncertainty of parameters accompanied with the uncertainty of future climate change scenario.     

Landscape changes have greater effects than climate changes on six insect pests in China

In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes(landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951–2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm(Mythimna separate(Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides.     

Modeling the spatial–temporal dynamics of water use efficiency in Yangtze River Basin using IBIS model

Climate change alters regional water and carbon cycling, which has been a hot study point in the filed of climatology and ecology. As a traditionally “water-rich” region of China, Yangtze River Basin plays an important role in regional economic development and ecosystem productivity. However, the mechanism of the influence of climate change on water and carbon cycling has been received little attention. As a coupling indicator for carbon and water, the water use efficiency (WUE) is widely used, which indicates the water consumption for carbon sequestration in watershed and regional scale. A lot of studies showed that climate change has significantly affected the water resource and production of the ecosystems in Yangtze River Basin during the period of 1956–2006, when great climate variations were occurred. To better understand the alternation pattern for the relationship between water and carbon cycling under climate change at regional scale, the WUE and the spatiotemporal variations patterns were simulated in the study area from 1956 to 2006 by using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The results showed that the WUE spatial pattern had the annual and seasonal variations. In general, the average annual WUE value per square meter was about 0.58 g C/kg H₂O in Yangtze River Basin. The high WUE levels were mainly distributed in the eastern area of Sichuan, western area of Jiangxi and Hunan, and the highest value reached 0.88 g C/kg H₂O. The lowest WUE’s were mainly located in the western area of Sichuan and Qinghai with the lowest values reaching to 0.36 g C/kg H₂O. The WUE in other regions mostly ranged from 0.5 to 0.6 g C/kg H₂O. For the whole study area, the annual WUE slowly increased from 1956 to 2006. The WUE in the upper reaches of Yangtze River increased based on the simulated temporal trends, which mainly located in the western area of the Sichuan Basin; the WUE of the middle reaches of Yangtze River had increased slightly from 1987 to 1996, and then decreased from 1996 to 2006; the lower reaches of Yangtze River always had smaller WUE’s than the average from 1956 to 2006. The spatiotemporal variability of the WUE in the vegetation types was obvious in the Yangtze River Basin, and it was depended on the climate and soil conditions, and as well the disturbance in its distribution areas. The temporal variations of WUE among different vegetation types had similar trends but different in values. The forest type had higher WUE than any other vegetation types ranging from 0.65 to 0.8 g C/kg H₂O. The WUE of shrubland ranged from 0.45 to 0.6 g C/kg H₂O. The WUE of tundra was the lowest, indicating the differences in plant physiology. The consistence of the spatial pattern of WUE with the NPP indicated that the regional production of Yangtze River Basin increased based on the water resources prompted and vegetation restoration. We found the drought climate was one of critical factor that impacts the alteration of WUE in Yangtze River Basin in the simulation.     

Modeling the spatial–temporal dynamics of water use efficiency in Yangtze River Basin using IBIS model

Climate change alters regional water and carbon cycling, which has been a hot study point in the filed of climatology and ecology. As a traditionally “water-rich” region of China, Yangtze River Basin plays an important role in regional economic development and ecosystem productivity. However, the mechanism of the influence of climate change on water and carbon cycling has been received little attention. As a coupling indicator for carbon and water, the water use efficiency (WUE) is widely used, which indicates the water consumption for carbon sequestration in watershed and regional scale. A lot of studies showed that climate change has significantly affected the water resource and production of the ecosystems in Yangtze River Basin during the period of 1956–2006, when great climate variations were occurred. To better understand the alternation pattern for the relationship between water and carbon cycling under climate change at regional scale, the WUE and the spatiotemporal variations patterns were simulated in the study area from 1956 to 2006 by using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The results showed that the WUE spatial pattern had the annual and seasonal variations. In general, the average annual WUE value per square meter was about 0.58 g C/kg H₂O in Yangtze River Basin. The high WUE levels were mainly distributed in the eastern area of Sichuan, western area of Jiangxi and Hunan, and the highest value reached 0.88 g C/kg H₂O. The lowest WUE’s were mainly located in the western area of Sichuan and Qinghai with the lowest values reaching to 0.36 g C/kg H₂O. The WUE in other regions mostly ranged from 0.5 to 0.6 g C/kg H₂O. For the whole study area, the annual WUE slowly increased from 1956 to 2006. The WUE in the upper reaches of Yangtze River increased based on the simulated temporal trends, which mainly located in the western area of the Sichuan Basin; the WUE of the middle reaches of Yangtze River had increased slightly from 1987 to 1996, and then decreased from 1996 to 2006; the lower reaches of Yangtze River always had smaller WUE’s than the average from 1956 to 2006. The spatiotemporal variability of the WUE in the vegetation types was obvious in the Yangtze River Basin, and it was depended on the climate and soil conditions, and as well the disturbance in its distribution areas. The temporal variations of WUE among different vegetation types had similar trends but different in values. The forest type had higher WUE than any other vegetation types ranging from 0.65 to 0.8 g C/kg H₂O. The WUE of shrubland ranged from 0.45 to 0.6 g C/kg H₂O. The WUE of tundra was the lowest, indicating the differences in plant physiology. The consistence of the spatial pattern of WUE with the NPP indicated that the regional production of Yangtze River Basin increased based on the water resources prompted and vegetation restoration. We found the drought climate was one of critical factor that impacts the alteration of WUE in Yangtze River Basin in the simulation.     

A water quality analysis system to evaluate the impact of agricultural activities on N outflow in river basins in Japan

We have developed a personal-computer-based water quality analysis system for river basins. The system estimates potential N outflow by model and calculates actual N outflow from monitoring data. For the former it uses the potential load factor method to estimate annual nitrogen load from various sources and runoff potential from each area of land in a basin. For the latter it analyzes water quality monitoring data in relation to meteorological data. We used the system to analyze N outflow in basins around Lake Kasumigaura and the Yahagi River in central Honshu, Japan. The land around Lake Kasumigaura is rather flat, and about 25% is periodically flooded for rice and lotus cultivation. The land around the Yahagi River is mountainous, and much less land is flooded. In the Yahagi River basin the actual N outflow agreed closely with the potential. However, the actual N outflow in the basin around Lake Kasumigaura was much less than the potential, suggesting that a large part of the N load is denitrified in     

The failed invasion of Harmonia axyridis in the Azores,Portugal: Climatic restriction or wrong population origin?

We tested two questions:(i)whether the climatic conditions of the Azorean Islands in Portugal may have restricted the invasion of Harmonia axyridis across this archipelago and(ii)determine what population of this species could have a higher probability of invading the islands.We used MaxEnt to project the climate requirements of different H.axyridis populations from three regions of the world,and the potential global niche of the species in the Azorean islands.Then we assessed the suitability of the islands for each of the three H.axyridis populations and global potential niche through histograms analysis,Principal Component Analysis(PCA)of climate variables,and a variable-by-variable assessment of the suitability response curves compared with the climatic conditions of the Azores.Climatic conditions of the Azores are less suitable for the U.S.and native Asian populations of H.axyridis,and more suitable for European populations and the global potential niche.The PCA showed that the climatic conditions of the islands differed from the climatic requirements of H.axyridis.This difference is mainly explained by precipitation of the wettest month,isothermality,and the minimum temperature of the coldest month.We concluded that the climatic conditions of the Azores could have influenced the establishment and spread of H.axyridis on these islands from Europe.Our results showed that abiotic resistance represented by the climate of the potentially colonizable zones could hinder the establishment of invasive insects,but it could vary depending of the origin of the colonizing population.     

LSCHL4 from Japonica Cultivar,Which Is Allelic to NAL 1, Increases Yield of Indica Super Rice 93-11

The basic premise of high yield in rice is to improve leaf photosynthetic efficiency and coordinate the sourcesink relationship in rice plants. Quantitative trait loci （QTLs） related to morphological traits and chlorophyll content of rice leaves were detected at the stages of heading to maturity, and a major QTL （qLSCHL4） related to flag leaf shape and chlorophyll content was detected at both stages in recombinant inbred lines constructed using the indica rice cultivar 93-11 and the japonica rice cultivar Nipponbare. Map-based cloning and expression analysis showed that LSCHL4 is allelic to NAL1, a gene previously reported in narrow leaf mutant of rice. Overexpression lines transformed with vector carrying LSCHL4 from Nipponbare and a near-isogenic line of 93-11 （NIL-9311） had significantly increased leaf chlorophyll content, enlarged flag leaf size, and improved panicle type. The average yield of NIL-9311 was 18.70% higher than that of 93-11. These results indicate that LSCHL4 had a pleiotropic function. Exploring and pyramiding more high-yield alleles resem- bling LSCHL4 for super rice breeding provides an effective way to achieve new breakthroughs in raising rice yield and generate new ideas for solving the problem of global food safety.     

Ecosystems patterns and dynamics in Haihe river basin

Research on ecosystems patterns and dynamics is critical for understanding the regional problems of resources and environment. In this study, based on the technology of RS and GIS, the composition, patterns and dynamics of the ecosystems in Haihe river basin during 1990–2005 were analyzed using landscape indices including the area of average patches, aggregation index and Shannon–Weaver diversity index. According to the development situation of economy and society in Haihe river basin, some driving factors for dynamics of ecosystems patterns were concluded based on correlation analysis. Results showed that the ecosystems patterns in Haihe river basin changed greatly from 1990 to 2005. The area of urban and grassland increased, but farmland, forest and wetland decreased. As for landscape indices, the area of average patches, value of aggregation index, clump index and diversity index all increased, indicating the trend of evenness for the whole ecosystems. Growth of population, economy growth together with urbanization and policy were the main driving factors for dynamics of ecosystem pattern in this basin.     

Ecosystems patterns and dynamics in Haihe river basin

Research on ecosystems patterns and dynamics is critical for understanding the regional problems of resources and environment. In this study, based on the technology of RS and GIS, the composition, patterns and dynamics of the ecosystems in Haihe river basin during 1990–2005 were analyzed using landscape indices including the area of average patches, aggregation index and Shannon–Weaver diversity index. According to the development situation of economy and society in Haihe river basin, some driving factors for dynamics of ecosystems patterns were concluded based on correlation analysis. Results showed that the ecosystems patterns in Haihe river basin changed greatly from 1990 to 2005. The area of urban and grassland increased, but farmland, forest and wetland decreased. As for landscape indices, the area of average patches, value of aggregation index, clump index and diversity index all increased, indicating the trend of evenness for the whole ecosystems. Growth of population, economy growth together with urbanization and policy were the main driving factors for dynamics of ecosystem pattern in this basin.     

气候变化对广东省双季稻种植气候区划的影响

基于广东省86个气象站1961—2016年的气温资料和1∶25万数字高程模型(DEM)数据,采用线性趋势分析、累积距平和反距离权重插值等方法,分析影响双季稻种植的关键气候因子(双季稻安全生育期日数、≥10 ℃积温)时空变化特征,结合气候因子在1961—1990年、1971—2000年、1981—2010年、气候因子突变前(1961—1997年)、突变后(1998—2016年)等5个时间段的变化,研究了气候变化对广东双季稻熟性搭配分布区域及其面积的影响.结果表明: 广东省双季稻安全生育期日数、≥10 ℃积温的空间分布表现为南高北低、平原高山区低.近56年,广东双季稻安全生育期日数以1.7 d ·10 a^-1的速率显著增加,≥10 ℃积温以43 ℃·d·10 a^-1的速率显著上升,各气候因子均在1997年发生了突变.广东双季稻熟性搭配可分为早熟+早熟、早熟+晚熟和晚熟+晚熟3个气候区.早熟+早熟区主要分布在北部中亚热带地区,早熟+晚熟区主要分布在中部南亚热带地区,晚熟+晚熟区主要分布在南部北热带地区.受气候变化的影响,广东晚熟+晚熟区面积明显扩大,早熟+晚熟区面积明显减小,而早熟+早熟区的面积变化不明显.与1961—1990年相比,1971—2000年和1981—2010年广东省晚熟+晚熟区面积分别增加了1.22×10⁶和2.56×10⁶ hm²,早熟+晚熟区的面积分别减小了1.13×10⁶和2.56×10⁶ hm².与突变前(1961—1997年)相比,突变后(1998—2016年)晚熟+晚熟区的面积增大一倍多,早熟+晚熟区面积缩小近一倍.     

气候变化对淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量影响的SWAT模拟

致洪暴雨主要是3天以上连续强降水,是淮河流域洪涝的直接原因。构建淮河流域中上游SWAT模型,用RegCM3在SRES A2排放情景下的模拟结果(2071-2100年)驱动SWAT模型,研究气候变化对淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量的影响。结果表明:(1)在SRES A2排放情景下,淮河流域中上游未来(2071-2100年)气温升高,降水量增加,降水的空间差异增大;颖河流域中游年降水量有较大幅度的减少,呈现暖干化的趋势;汛期极端过程降水增加,汛期最大9 d降水量平均增幅都在10%以上。(2)在SRES A2排放情景下的气候变化将导致淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量大幅度增加,干流5个水文站汛期最大9 d平均流量的增幅都在20%以上。(3)淮河流域中上游极端流量的概率分布更加集中,更大的极端流量出现的频率更高,研究流域下游更容易出现较大的极端流量。(4)研究流域下游极端流量概率对极端流量变化更敏感,下游也面临着更大的洪涝风险。     

Rice planting systems, global warming and outbreaks of Nilaparvata lugens (Stål)

Brown Planthopper (BPH, Nilaparvata lugens (St?l)) is one of the most serious pests of rice in both temperate and tropical regions of East and South Asia and has become especially problematic over the past few years. In order to analyze the effect of the change of rice cropping system on the population dynamics of BPH, field surveys of the occurrence and distribution of BPH were performed and other relevant data, including light trap data and ovary dissection data were collected in nearly 40 Chinese counties encompassing six provinces (or municipalities), including Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong from April to October in 2007.The mixed planting areas of single- and double-cropping rice in China include Hubei, South and Central Anhui, North Hunan, and North Jiangxi. In these areas, double-cropping rice has now been greatly reduced and single-cropping rice has been rapidly increasing since 1997. The surveys revealed that when the immigration peak of BPH occurred in June and July, the single-cropping rice was at the tillering to booting stage and fit for BPH, but early rice had already matured and most of late rice had not yet been transplanted. BPH immigrants from southern rice areas prefer to inhabit and breed in single-cropping rice paddies. Moreover, farming activities between early rice and late rice interrupted the continuous growth of BPH populations in double-cropping rice paddies. As a result, in comparison with data collected 30 years ago, the spatiotemporal dynamics and migration patterns of BPH have dramatically changed in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In the mixed planting areas, due to their high suitability, the BPH population in single-cropping rice grew so quickly that it caused serious local damage and there was mass emigration of macropterous progeny to the Yangtze River Delta in late August and early September.Global warming may also affect BPH populations, where results suggest steadily warmer autumns have occurred from the 1990s on, with such conditions gradually the norm. The combination of 'cooler summer' and 'warmer autumn' are conditions known to promote outbreaks of BPH in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Immigrant BPH arrivals in late August and September now cause serious damage to late-maturing mid-season rice and late rice in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River.     

长江中下游地区水稻孕穗开花期高温发生规律及其对产量的影响

以长江中下游平原7个省(市)的19个地区作为样点,统计分析了各样点近36年(1970—2005年)水稻始穗前15d至始穗后20d内日最高气温≥35℃的时空分布特点;并根据全球气候渐变模型GISS GCM Transient B Runs生成的研究区域2030、2050年的气候渐变情景,分析了该地区未来水稻孕穗开花期≥35℃高温逆境的时空演变趋势。结果表明:近36年来长江中下游的早稻孕穗开花期出现高温日数的上升趋势显著,未来气候情景下水稻逆境指标出现日数最多的是单季稻,其次依次为早稻、后季稻;双季稻种植区,在未来气候变化中,长江中游地区温度逆境出现日数将大于下游地区。研究区域水稻气候产量的增减与该地区水稻逆境指标的关系说明,高温导致的颖花败育是水稻减产的重要原因;未来气候变化的两种(2030、2050)情景下,长江中游地区的减产幅度大于长江下游地区,减产幅度最大的是长江中游地区的后季稻。     

基于最大熵模型预测气候变化下河蚬在中国的潜在分布

河蚬是一类在我国广泛分布的底栖贝类,具有重要的经济价值及生态价值。近年来,河蚬野生资源量锐减,了解河蚬在国内的潜在分布能为河蚬的保护和合理利用提供重要参考。基于河蚬在中国的136个分布点和8个环境因子,采用ENMeval包和biasfile优化后的最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测分别河蚬现代和未来(2041—2060年和2081—2100年) 6个气候情景下的潜在分布。综合Jackknife检验、置换重要值和环境因子贡献率评估影响现代河蚬潜在分布的主要因子,比较未来气候情景下潜在适生区差异从而分析预测河蚬适宜分布的变化。结果表明：(1)优化后的MaxEnt模型预测准确度极高,平均AUC值为0.900±0.037,平均AUC_DIFF值为0.019,现代河蚬潜在分布区域总面积为188.33×10⁴ km²,主要集中在长江流域、海河流域、淮河流域、珠江流域、东南沿海区域以及黄河流域下游和渤海湾沿岸区域。(2)影响河蚬潜在分布的主要环境因子为海拔、温度(年均温和温度年较差)和降水(年降水量)。(3)在未来6种气候情景下,河蚬主要潜...     

近60年来印江河流域极端气候演变及其对净初级生产力和归一化植被指数的影响

极端气候事件的发生改变了区域水热条件，并影响着生态环境变化。然而，目前长时间尺度上极端气候的演变规律及其对生态环境的影响尚不明晰。采用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验法、连续小波变换和Hurst指数法揭示了喀斯特槽谷印江河流域极端气候的变化趋势、突变时间、周期性特征和未来演变规律，并利用Lindeman-Merenda-Gold模型定量评估了极端气候溶变对生态环境变化的影响。结果表明：(1)印江河流域极端气温显著上升，降雨量增多，呈现湿热多雨的气候特征。未来极端气温事件持续等级将更高，持续强度也更强。(2)同类型极端气候具有潜在的关联性，但不同类型极端气候间的影响较小，且多呈负相关。(3)印江河流域平均净初级生产力(NPP)和归一化植被指数(NDVI)在2000—2015年间呈现相反的变化趋势，NPP平均值为598.53 g C m^-2 a^-1,平均减少速率为-3.32 g C m^-2 a^-1。NDVI平均值为0.59,平均增长速率为0.0013/a。(4)冷持续指数(CSDI)、平均温差(D...     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅴ.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961—2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明：研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4 ℃·(10 a)^-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)^-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10 ℃积温在3200 ℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001—2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20 ℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化V.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961-2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明:研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4℃·(10 a)-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10℃积温在3200℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001-2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961—2007年中国东北三省72个气象台站的气象资料,分析了东北三省全年及温度生长期内的平均气温、≥10 ℃积温、降水量、日照时数和参考作物蒸散量等农业气候资源的变化特征.结果表明：研究期间,东北三省年均气温总体呈升高趋势,其气候倾向率为0.38 ℃·10 a^-1;温度生长期内≥10 ℃积温同样呈上升趋势,且积温带逐渐北移东扩,全区高于3200 ℃·d积温带面积增加了2.2×10⁴ km²,2800～3200 ℃·d积温带北移0.85°、东移0.67°,2400～2800 ℃·d积温带北移1.1°;东北三省年日照时数显著下降,且以松嫩平原东部、吉林省中西部平原、辽河平原西部的减少尤为明显,全区年日照时数高于2800 h的区域面积由13.6×10⁴ km²缩小到4.1×10⁴ km²,2600～2800 h的区域向西推进了1.5°;全区温度生长期内日照时数平均为1174 h,与1961—1980年相比,1981—2007年温度生长期内的日照时数高值区明显减少,日照时数1200～1400 h的区域向西推进了0.9°;1961—2007年间,研究区年降水量及温度生长期内降水量均呈下降趋势;黑龙江省全年参考作物蒸散量整体呈增加趋势,吉林省中西部平原区有所减小、东部山区呈增加趋势,辽宁省均呈减小趋势,与1961—1980年的年均值相比,1981—2007年年参考作物蒸散量高于900 mm区域向西推移了约1°;黑龙江省和吉林省绝大部分区域温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量逐年增加,而辽宁省绝大部分区域以小于14 mm·10 a^-1的幅度在减少.     

气候与土地利用变化下宁夏清水河流域径流模拟

气候和土地利用变化是影响水资源变化最直接的因素。应用SWAT模型对干旱半干旱区小流域宁夏清水河流域径流进行多情景模拟预测,以历史气候要素变化趋势和CA-Markov模型分别设置未来气候和土地利用变化情景,以决定系数R2和Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数Ens(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient)来衡量模拟值与实测值之间的拟合度,并评价模型在清水河流域的适用性。结果表明,韩府湾站在校准期和验证期的R~2分别为0.80和0.71,Ens分别为0.77和0.69,泉眼山站在校准期和验证期的R2分别为0.66和0.63,Ens分别为0.62和0.56,表明构建的SWAT模型可以用于清水河流域的径流模拟。对未来气候和土地利用变化情景下径流的模拟结果显示,径流变化主要由降水变化主导,降水减少和气温升高的综合作用对流域径流变化影响最为显著;由于耕地和建设用地的增加,未来3种土地利用情景下流域径流量将均会呈现明显增加变化。与2010年相比,到2020年,自然增长情景流域径流将增加17.04%,林地保护情景径流将增加14.44%,规划情景径流将增加13.98%;综合降水、气温和土地利用的结合变化情景显示,未来流域径流将会有不同程度的下降,规划情景和气候变化的结合情景的径流下降最为明显,而有意增大林地和加强生态保护的林地保护情景对减缓流域径流下降具有一定作用。在气候变化的大背景下,根据水资源利用管理目标,可通过调整流域管理措施,特别是土地利用变化和改善区域小气候来减缓气候变化对流域水资源的负面效果,以此来改善流域径流和生态环境状况。