1961-2010年中国东部林区降水的完整日值序列建立与变化特征

高精度地对各气象站缺测降水资料进行插补,从而获得完整序列的降水资料,对于提高气候变化影响分析的时空精度具有十分重要的意义.本文利用空间相关和逐步回归法,对东部林区月内有单日缺测或不多于7d缺测的降水资料进行插补,最终建立了853个站自1961-2010年完整序列的降水资料.在此基础上,应用趋势分析法,分析了1961-2010年降水量、降水日数和极端降水事件的变化特性.结果表明:1961-2010年,研究区年降水量略呈不显著增加趋势,倾向率为5.58 mm.(10a)-1,年代际变化明显;年降水日数呈显著减少趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量呈显著上升趋势,倾向率分别为0.12 d·(10a)-1、10.22mm·(10a)-1.尤其是20世纪90年代以后,该区极端降水事件明显偏多偏强,极端降水量对总降水量的比率也呈显著增加趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量均在1993年发生突变.     

1961-2010年中国东部林区降水的完整日值序列建立与变化特征

高精度地对各气象站缺测降水资料进行插补,从而获得完整序列的降水资料,对于提高气候变化影响分析的时空精度具有十分重要的意义.本文利用空间相关和逐步回归法,对东部林区月内有单日缺测或不多于7 d缺测的降水资料进行插补,最终建立了853个站自1961-2010年完整序列的降水资料.在此基础上,应用趋势分析法,分析了1961-2010年降水量、降水日数和极端降水事件的变化特性.结果表明： 1961-2010年,研究区年降水量略呈不显著增加趋势,倾向率为5.58 mm·(10 a)^-1,年代际变化明显;年降水日数呈显著减少趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量呈显著上升趋势,倾向率分别为0.12 d·(10 a)^-1、10.22 mm·(10 a)^-1.尤其是20世纪90年代以后,该区极端降水事件明显偏多偏强,极端降水量对总降水量的比率也呈显著增加趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量均在1993年发生突变.     

不同利用方式下内蒙古典型草原群落物种相互关系的年际变化

放牧和刈割作为内蒙古草原主要利用方式,对大针茅群落演替以及建群种更替有着重要影响。以内蒙古典型草原大针茅群落为研究对象,2013—2015年连续3年对放牧和刈割两种利用方式下大针茅群落小尺度格局进行定点观测,其中,2014年气候极端干旱且温度较高;运用Ecosim7.72软件计算C-score和V-ratio来反映群落物种间相互作用关系,并分析相互作用关系的年际变化以及影响因素。结果表明:(1)2013年和2015年温度和降水与该区域年均值比较接近,放牧和刈割两种利用方式下群落植物间相互作用关系均为竞争;(2)2014年为极端干旱和高温的年份,放牧和刈割两种利用方式下群落植物间相互作用的值或方向发生了很大变化,其中,放牧利用加剧植物间的竞争,而刈割利用方式下植物间相互作用为促进。(3)所得结果表明气候波动是影响群落物种间相互作用的主要因素,而在极端年份,利用方式会影响群落物种间相互作用的方向和大小,这不仅为胁迫梯度假说的完善提供了实验数据,而且可为该区域草原的合理利用和保护措施的制定提供理论指导。     

北京地区气候变化和植被的关系——基于遥感数据和物候资料的分析

 气候变化对陆地生态系统的影响及其反馈是全球变化研究的焦点之一。本文利用1951～2000年的气温、降水等气候资料、1982～2000年的NOAA/AVHRR遥感数据和1951～2000年北京春季物候的代表性指标——山桃（Prunus davidiana）始花的物候数据,分析了在年际和年内时间尺度上北京地区各气候参量与植被变化之间的关系。结果显示：植物生长与温度之间的关系远比其与降水之间的关系密切;各气候参量和植被生长状况之间的关系因时间尺度而不同。1)月际水平上,具有显著生态学意义的气候指标对植被生长状况的影响更明显。2)温度与NDVI指标的相互作用最大为零时滞：年际水平上,影响时效约为1年;月际水平上,约为1个月。3)植物物候期与温度之间的关系远比其与降水之间的关系密切。年际尺度上,气候参量和植物物候期的相互作用是同时的,其中气温的影响时效为2年;月际尺度上,实际温度和植物物候期的相互作用时效约为1个月。     

海南岛尖峰岭12种热带常绿阔叶乔木展叶期与开花期对气候变化的响应

为了探讨我国热带地区植物物候与气候变化的关系, 利用海南岛尖峰岭热带树木园12种热带常绿阔叶乔木植物2003-2011年物候观测资料结合同期月平均气温和降水数据, 运用积分回归分析方法, 筛选出影响海南岛12种乔木(8种本地种、4种引入种)展叶始期与开花始期的气象因素以及不同气象因素月值变化(月平均气温和月降水量)综合作用对这些树种物候期的动态影响, 最终建立积分回归-物候预测模型, 对气候变化背景下我国热带地区植物物候变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明: 海南岛12种热带常绿阔叶乔木展叶始期与开花始期均对气候变化做出较明显的响应, 几乎所有的树种展叶始期与开花始期的发生都受到气温和降水的共同影响。多数树种展叶始期受展叶前冬季及春季气温影响显著, 且在临近展叶始期的月份, 气温的影响更显著。上一年秋季月降水量对各树种开花始期的影响比其他时段显著, 这验证了降水的滞后性假说。本地种展叶始期对气候变化的响应比其开花始期对气候变化的响应更敏感, 引入种则相反。各树种展叶和开花在受气温和降水综合影响最明显的月份(假设其余11个月份月平均气温和月降水量不变), 月平均气温升高0.1 ℃、月降水量增加10 mm可使展叶始期和开花始期提前或推迟1-3天。积分回归分析方法为解释海南岛热带常绿阔叶乔木物候与气温和降水的动态关系提供了有效的途径, 基于气温和降水与物候资料建立的积分回归-物候预测模型具有对气温和降水变化影响下物候响应的解释率和预测精度高(R²≥ 0.943)的优点, 对于预测气候变化影响下的植物物候变化趋势有一定的适用性。     

Responses of leaf unfolding and flowering to climate change in 12 tropical evergreen broadleaf tree species in Jianfengling,Hainan Island

为了探讨我国热带地区植物物候与气候变化的关系, 利用海南岛尖峰岭热带树木园12种热带常绿阔叶乔木植物2003-2011年物候观测资料结合同期月平均气温和降水数据, 运用积分回归分析方法, 筛选出影响海南岛12种乔木(8种本地种、4种引入种)展叶始期与开花始期的气象因素以及不同气象因素月值变化(月平均气温和月降水量)综合作用对这些树种物候期的动态影响, 最终建立积分回归-物候预测模型, 对气候变化背景下我国热带地区植物物候变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明: 海南岛12种热带常绿阔叶乔木展叶始期与开花始期均对气候变化做出较明显的响应, 几乎所有的树种展叶始期与开花始期的发生都受到气温和降水的共同影响。多数树种展叶始期受展叶前冬季及春季气温影响显著, 且在临近展叶始期的月份, 气温的影响更显著。上一年秋季月降水量对各树种开花始期的影响比其他时段显著, 这验证了降水的滞后性假说。本地种展叶始期对气候变化的响应比其开花始期对气候变化的响应更敏感, 引入种则相反。各树种展叶和开花在受气温和降水综合影响最明显的月份(假设其余11个月份月平均气温和月降水量不变), 月平均气温升高0.1 ℃、月降水量增加10 mm可使展叶始期和开花始期提前或推迟1-3天。积分回归分析方法为解释海南岛热带常绿阔叶乔木物候与气温和降水的动态关系提供了有效的途径, 基于气温和降水与物候资料建立的积分回归-物候预测模型具有对气温和降水变化影响下物候响应的解释率和预测精度高(R²≥ 0.943)的优点, 对于预测气候变化影响下的植物物候变化趋势有一定的适用性。     

内蒙古草原生态系统净初级生产力及其与气候的关系

该文在利用朱文泉等(2007)构建的基于光能利用率的净初级生产力(NPP)遥感估算模型对内蒙古草原生态系统1982-2006年的NPP进行估算的基础上, 选取包括降水量、温度、有效降水、有效温度和3种地表干湿度指数在内的气候指标, 充分考虑地表覆盖状况和气候因子的时滞和累积效应, 探讨了内蒙古草原生态系统NPP与气候因子之间的相互作用关系。结果表明, 以年为时间单位, 在年际水平上, 温度相关的各指标与年NPP的关系并不明显, 当年的气候条件对草原区植被的生长影响最大。以月为时间单位, 年内月气温和降水是影响NPP的重要因素。且所有植被类型区在年内月际水平上气候各指标对NPP的影响时效最大为1个月, NPP和各气候参量的关系时效也为1个月; 在年际水平上5-9月的NPP与降水、地表干湿度指数的互相关系数明显高于同温度各指标的互相关系数, 表明降水是影响内蒙古草原NPP的主要气候因子, 且降水的累积效应影响显著。不同植被类型区年际月NPP与降水指标之间的关系也各不相同。     

极端降水和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统的影响

当前人类活动的加剧显著地影响着全球大气循环的格局。大气循环的多个模型均预测未来全球气候变化的显著特征是极端降水事件和极端干旱事件发生的频率会显著增加。水分是干旱、半干旱区草原植物生长发育的限制性资源, 而草原生态系统是陆地生态系统中对降水格局变化非常敏感的系统。但是, 关于极端降水事件和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统结构和功能的影响还是以分散的个案研究为主, 甚至关于极端气候事件的定义迄今也不尽相同。为此, 该文在分析极端气候事件定义及其研究方法的基础上, 总结了极端降水事件和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统土壤水分和养分状况、植物生长发育和生理特性、群落结构、生产力和碳循环过程的影响, 并提出了未来极端气候事件研究中应重点关注的5个重要方向, 以及控制试验研究的2个关键科学问题, 对开展全球变化背景下草原生态系统对极端气候事件响应机制的研究具有指导意义。     

内蒙古草原区植被净初级生产力及其与气候的关系

利用NOAA/AVHRR GIMMSNDVI数据、土地覆盖分类数据、气象数据等,基于改进的基于光能利用率的净初级生产力(Net Primary productivity,NPP)遥感估算模型对内蒙古草原区1982-2006年的NPP进行估算,并分别以年、季节和月为时间单位,计算基于像元的NPP与降水、温度之间的相关及偏相关系数,分析不同时间单位及尺度上NPP与气候的关系。结果表明,1982-2006年内蒙古草原区NPP总量呈波动增加的趋势,平均增加值为0.861Mt C/a。以年为时间单位,内蒙古草原区年NPP与降水的关系比较明显。以季节为时间单位,年际春季和夏季NPP与降水的关系比较明显,秋季二者关系相对较弱,春季和秋季NPP与温度的相关系数和偏相关系数空间格局比较一致,且相关性明显高于夏季。以月为时间单位的相关水平明显高于年际水平,多年平均年内月NPP与降水、温度的相关程度明显增强,除去降水的影响,月均温对NPP的影响明显下降,且空间格局也有明显的变化,说明以月为时间单位在年内尺度上降水对植被生长的影响比温度要大。而以4、7、10月份为例,在年际尺度上,虽然各月份NPP均受降水的影响较大,但与降水关系最为密切的是4月份和10月份NPP,与之相比,7月份NPP与温度的关系明显高于其他两月。     

Aboveground net primary productivity and soil respiration display different responses to precipitation changes in desert grassland

荒漠草原区地上净初级生产力和土壤呼吸对降水变化的不同响应 降水变化既影响地上植被动态,也影响地下碳循环过程,尤其以干旱半干旱生态系统对降水的响应更为敏感。然而极端降水如何影响土壤碳固存潜力仍未得出明确结果。本研究在黄土高原西部荒漠草原样地实施了为期3年的降水控制实验,该实验包含5个降水梯度(即自然降水(对照),以及在自然降水基础上的减水40%、减水20%、增水20%、增水40%)。通过对不同降水处理下植物生长指标、地上净初级生产力(ANPP)、土壤水分和土壤呼吸(Rs)进行监测,采用双侧不对称模型揭示ANPP和Rs对降水变化的响应规律;采用结构方程模型,分析降水变化下影响ANPP和Rs的直接和间接因素。研究结果表明,ANPP对极端干旱的响应比极端湿润更敏感,在干旱和湿润年份均符合负向不对称模型。ANPP的变化主要受到降水的直接影响,同时,干旱年份植物密度的变化也对ANPP产生了影响。在湿润年份,Rs对降水变化的响应也呈负向不对称性。然而,干旱年份,Rs对降水变化表现出正向不对称响应,即对降水增加响应的敏感性高于降水减少,这可能与植物生长和ANPP对增水处理的正响应增加使自氧呼吸增强,及降水事件对异氧呼吸具有较强的‘Birch效应’有关。在干旱年份Rs对极端干旱(减水40%处理)表现出饱和响应。ANPP和Rs对降水格局改变的响应模式差异表明荒漠草原区极端湿润或干旱可能降低研究区土壤碳固存的潜力。     

Latitudinal cline of flowering and fruiting phenology in Fagaceae in Asia

The seasonal timing of flowering and fruiting is crucial for the reproductive success of plants and for resource availability to animals. Although plants synchronize their reproductive timing to coincide with appropriate seasons by responding to environmental cues, seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation vary minimally in very wet tropical environments. To explore the latitudinal cline in the reproductive phenology of the Fagaceae in Asia, we analyzed phenology data for a total of 94, 121, and 219 species from Thailand, Malesia, and China, respectively, in the three genera of Fagaceae, Quercus, Castanopsis, and Lithocarpus. We found that Quercus and Castanopsis showed flowering peaks in April in China. In Thailand, the peak shifted to an earlier month, and the peak disappeared in Malesia. The flowering period lengthened with decreasing latitude in the animal-pollinated genera Castanopsis and Lithocarpus. However, this was not the case for the wind-pollinated genus Quercus. The fruiting period lengthened with decreasing latitude in all three genera. We examined the relationship between reproductive phenology and climatic factors. The combination of monthly temperature and precipitation best explained the monthly change in the proportion of flowering and fruiting species in China in all three genera. However, climatic factors had almost no impact on the predictive ability of the model in Malesia. Our results on phenological shifts in the family Fagaceae, from the temperate climates and seasonal tropics to the humid tropics, provide valuable information for predicting phenological changes in future climate change.     

中国南亚热带和北温带地区禾本科C3与C4草本植物花果期差异研究

为揭示不同地区禾本科C₃与C₄植物花果期受气候因子的影响,以广东省和内蒙古自治区分别代表南亚热带和北温带地区,从植物志中分别获得两地395和265种禾本科草本植物的3个花果期特征(始花期、末花果期和生殖期长),比较开花物候的差异,并通过一般线性模型探究其与气候因子(年均温与年均降水量)的相关性。结果表明,南亚热带与北温带地区C₃植物的始花期均比C₄植物早。两地C₄共有种在南亚热带地区具有更早的始花期、更晚的末花果期和更长的生殖期,而C₃共有种的末花果期在两地无显著差异,但在南亚热带地区始花期更早,生殖期更长。随年均温升高,北温带地区禾本科植物的始花期提前,而南亚热带地区则延后;随年均降水量升高,两地禾本科植物始花期与末花果期均延迟;禾本科植物生殖期长与年均温和年均降水量均不存在相关性。跨地区分析表明,末花果期、生殖期长与年均温和年均降水量均正相关,而与始花期不相关。禾本科C₃植物比C₄植物对地区间气候差异响应更敏...     

Flowering dynamics of Orchis morio L. and Herminium monorchis (L.) R.Br, at two sites in eastern England

Information taken from two long-term demographic studies on Orchis morio L. and Herminium monorchis (L.) R.Br, is used to explore some of the factors which influence flowering. The proportion of plants which flowered each year varied considerably between species, flowering in O. morio exceeding 40% in all years except one over an 18 year period; over a 30 year period (1966–95), the number of plants of Herminium in flower never exceeded 36% of the population and no inflorescences were produced in 1977 and 1991. The relationship between flowering in Herminium in a given year and the monthly rainfall and temperature for the current and 3 previous years was analysed using logistic regression. Best fits were obtained using data for the summer months in the previous year, with an increasing flowering rate with rainfall and a decline with temperature. It is hypothesized that drought and high temperatures in the summer reduce leaf area and cause premature senescence and the death of leaves, with the result that not enough carbohydrates are stored to enable plants to support or initiate inflorescences the following year. For species such as Orchis morio which produce leaves in the autumn and remain green, summer drought causes no problems as they have no above ground organs. Factors which influence flowering in this species are as yet unknown.     

Climatic factors governing plant phenological phases along a Norwegian fjord

In the present project, the time of leaf budding and flowering, and partly also of fruit ripening, was studied over 3 years in different cultivated and native plants on a gradient along a western Norwegian fjord about 300 km long, from oceanic to relatively continental regions. In the plants investigated, flowering of the red currant was most strongly favoured by oceanic conditions in the outermost part of the fjord. On the other hand, flowering of the apple was earliest in the middle district, as were flowering of the common lilac and raspberry, while differences were small between the districts for flowering of the plum and pear. In the inner district, leaf budding of the apple was about 1.5 weeks earlier than flowering of the red currant, while these two phenophases, on average, occurred on the same day in the oceanic district. The time from 1 April to flowering was generally lengthened by increased precipitation in the pear, apple, lilac and raspberry, but not in the red currant and plum. By contrast, the period from leaf budding to flowering was significantly shortened in the plum by high precipitation. The present studies also indicated that leaf budding of the birch was favoured by the high minimum temperature and the relatively high precipitation normally found in the oceanic district. Partial correlations showed that increased precipitation delayed the flowering of both rowan and bird cherry trees; there was also a week effect on bud break in the same two species. The clear conclusion of the present study, therefore, is that various plant species react differently to various climatic factors ("phenological interception"), even in different phenophases within the same species. This means that the various species are best fitted to certain climatic regions and should preferably be planted there if other growth factors are satisfactory.     

树木年轮揭示的东灵山主要树种间干旱耐受性差异

近年来北京地区的森林随极端干旱加剧表现出脆弱性特征,为了解气候变化下不同树种的干旱耐受性,选择北京东灵山森林内3个乔木树种(华北落叶松、油松和辽东栎),利用树木年轮生态学方法分析了径向生长与气候的关系,以及对极端干旱事件的抵抗力和弹性。结果表明: 华北落叶松和油松与5—6月气温呈显著负相关,辽东栎与5月气温呈显著负相关;华北落叶松与6月降水量、5—6月和8—9月相对湿度呈显著正相关,油松与6—8月降水量和相对湿度呈显著正相关,辽东栎与2月和5月降水量、5月相对湿度呈显著正相关;所有树种均与当年5—7月标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)呈显著正相关。华北落叶松是干旱耐受性最弱的树种,径向生长在所选极端干旱事件中(1994年、2001—2002年和2007年)下降幅度最大(46.6%～69.6%),抵抗力(0.534、0.304、0.530)和弹性(0.686、0.570、0.753)显著低于辽东栎和油松,辽东栎在2007年抵抗力显著高于油松,弹性无显著差异。生长季持续的高温或降水减少引起的极端干旱是树木径向生长下降的主要原因,树种间各异的生理生态策略是干旱耐受性差异的可能原因。研究结果可为未来造林树种选择和森林管护措施制定提供新依据,以在气候压力持续增加背景下维持森林生态系统功能和服务。     

浙江古田山亚热带常绿阔叶林叶衰老物候影响因子研究

该文选取浙江省古田山亚热带常绿阔叶林72种木本植物,探究气候因素、系统发育关系和功能性状对亚热带常绿阔叶林叶衰老物候的影响。结果表明,叶变色期在9—12月,落叶期在10—12月。每月落叶物种数与月均温、月均降水量和月均日照时数没有显著相关性,每月叶变色物种数与月均温和月均日照时数呈弱相关;落叶性对叶变色期和落叶期具有显著影响;植物间系统发育关系对叶变色期和落叶期没有显著影响。因此,生物和非生物因子都会影响常绿阔叶树种的叶衰老,这对于提高秋季物候预测模型具有重要价值。     

Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations show Philadelphia area plants are responding to climate change

? Premise of the study: The global climate is changing rapidly and is expected to continue changing in coming decades. Studying changes in plant flowering times during a historical period of warming temperatures gives us a way to examine the impacts of climate change and allows us to predict further changes in coming decades. The Greater Philadelphia region has a long and rich history of botanical study and documentation, with abundant herbarium specimens, field observations, and botanical photographs from the mid-1800s onward. These extensive records also provide an opportunity to validate methodologies employed by other climate change researchers at a different biogeographical area and with a different group of species. ? Methods: Data for 2539 flowering records from 1840 to 2010 were assessed to examine changes in flowering response over time and in relation to monthly minimum temperatures of 28 Piedmont species native to the Greater Philadelphia region. ? Key results: Regression analysis of the date of flowering with year or with temperature showed that, on average, the Greater Philadelphia species studied are flowering 16 d earlier over the 170-yr period and 2.7 d earlier per 1°C rise in monthly minimum temperature. ? Conclusions: Of the species studied, woody plants with short flowering duration are the best indicators of a warming climate. For monthly minimum temperatures, temperatures 1 or 2 mo prior to flowering are most significantly correlated with flowering time. Studies combining herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations are an effective method for detecting the effects of climate change on flowering times.     

The effect of climate conditions on inter-annual flowering variability monitored by pollen traps below the canopy in Draved Forest, Denmark

Since 1967 annual pollen deposition has been monitored in the semi-natural mixed deciduous woodland Draved Forest by the Geological Survey of Denmark. In this paper, we analyse the variability in pollen accumulation rates for the eight most common deciduous trees, and their relationships to monthly temperature and precipitation. High summer temperatures in the year before flowering have a positive effect on pollen deposition for several species. A positive correlation between temperatures during the flowering season and pollen accumulation rates is found for Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur, Fraxinus excelsior and Corylus avellana. The amount of precipitation can have both positive and negative effects on pollen accumulation, depending on species and on time of year. Linear modelling showed that combinations of monthly climate parameters could explain between 10 and 80% of the variation observed in different species. There were marked differences in the time series of pollen accumulation and pollen/climate relationships for some species between traps within the forest related to the location of trees near the traps. This underlines the importance of using multiple traps in a region for this type of study. Time series analyses were used to test for cyclicity in pollen accumulation rates, which could be caused by resource limitations or internal biological factors. No significant autocorrelations were found, although Alnus glutinosa showed a tendency towards 3-year cyclicity. These results indicate that, with the possible exception of Alnus glutinosa, temperature and precipitation are the main factors controlling the annual variability in pollen deposition of the trees in Draved Forest.