Variations in elk aggregation patterns across a range of elk population sizes at Wall Creek,Montana

In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, growing concern over increasing rates of brucellosis seroprevalence in wildlife has challenged wildlife managers to develop strategies for minimizing the potential for pathogen exchange within and between wildlife populations. Recent evidence suggests that increases in elk seroprevalence may be associated with increasing elk densities and/or increasing size of elk aggregations. However, the interactions between elk population density, landscape factors, and elk aggregation patterns are not well-understood, making appropriate management responses challenging. Using a unique, long-term elk aggregation dataset collected across a wide range of elk population sizes, we investigated relationships between elk population size, landscape factors, and elk aggregation responses (group size and group density) with goals of clarifying how changes in elk population size may affect elk aggregation patterns. Overall, landscape attributes and weather had a stronger influence on elk aggregation patterns than factors such as elk population size that are within management control. We found little evidence that elk population size affected mean elk group sizes, but we did find evidence that the size and density of the largest elk aggregations increased as elk population size increased. We also found some evidence that group densities increased following the establishment of wolves. However, across the relatively wide range of elk population sizes observed in this study, only modest changes in elk group density were observed, suggesting that dramatic reductions in population sizes would be necessary to produce measureable reductions in elk group density to affect frequency-dependent transmission. Management actions designed to lower disease transmission are likely to negatively affect other objectives related to elk management and conservation. We therefore suggest that a first step in managing disease transmission risk is agreement among stakeholders interested in elk management of all objectives related to elk management, including acknowledgment that disease transmission is undesirable. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Effects of low-density feeding on elk–fetus contact rates on Wyoming feedgrounds

High seroprevalance for Brucella abortus among elk on Wyoming feedgrounds suggests that supplemental feeding may influence parasite transmission and disease dynamics by altering the rate at which elk contact infectious materials in their environment. We used proximity loggers and video cameras to estimate rates of elk-to-fetus contact (the primary source of brucellosis transmission) during winter supplemental feeding. We compared contact rates during high-density and low-density (LD) feeding treatments that provided the same total amount of food distributed over different areas. Low-density feeding led to >70% reductions in total number of contacts and number of individuals contacting a fetus. Proximity loggers and video cameras provided similar estimates of elk–fetus contact rates. Elk contacted fetuses and random control points equally, suggesting that elk were not attracted to fetuses but encountered them incidentally while feeding. The modeled relationship between contact rate and disease prevalence is nonlinear and LD feeding may result in large reductions in brucellosis prevalence, but this depends on the amount of transmission that occurs on and off feedgrounds. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

A Case-Control Study of Risk Factors for Bovine Brucellosis Seropositivity in Peninsular Malaysia

Bovine brucellosis was first reported in Peninsular Malaysia in 1950. A subsequent survey conducted in the country revealed that the disease was widespread. Current knowledge on the potential risk factors for brucellosis occurrence on cattle farms in Malaysia is lacking. Therefore, we conducted a case-control study to identify the potential herd-level risk factors for bovine brucellosis occurrence in four states in the country, namely Kelantan, Pahang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. Thirty-five cases and 36 controls of herds were selected where data on farm management, biosecurity, medical history and public health were collected. Multivariable logistic regression identified that Brucella seropositive herds were more likely to; have some interaction with wildlife (OR 8.9, 95% CI = 1.59–50.05); originated from farms where multiple species such as buffalo/others (OR 41.8, 95% CI = 3.94–443.19) and goat/sheep (OR 8.9, 95%Cl = 1.10–71.83) were reared, practice extensive production system (OR 13.6, 95% CI 1.31–140.24) and have had episodes of abortion in the past (OR 51.8, 95% CI = 4.54–590.90) when compared to seronegative herds. Considering the lack of information on the epidemiology of bovine brucellosis in peninsular Malaysia and absence of information on preventing the inception or spread of the disease, this report could contribute to the on-going area-wise national brucellosis eradication program.     

Effects of supplemental feeding and aggregation on fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations in elk

Habitat modifications and supplemental feeding artificially aggregate some wildlife populations, with potential impacts upon contact and parasite transmission rates. Less well recognized, however, is how increased aggregation may affect wildlife physiology. Crowding has been shown to induce stress responses, and increased glucocorticoid (GC) concentrations can reduce immune function and increase disease susceptibility. We investigated the effects of supplemental feeding and the aggregation that it induces on behavior and fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations (fGCM) in elk (Cervus elaphus) using observational and experimental approaches. We first compared fGCM levels of elk on supplemental feedgrounds to neighboring elk populations wintering in native habitats using data from 2003 to 2008. We then experimentally manipulated the distribution of supplemental food on feedgrounds to investigate whether more widely distributed food would result in lower rates of aggression and stress hormone levels. Contrary to some expectations that fed elk may be less stressed than unfed elk during the winter, we found that elk on feedgrounds had fecal GC levels at least 31% higher than non-feedground populations. Within feedgrounds, fGCM levels were strongly correlated with local measures of elk density (r² = 0.81). Dispersing feed more broadly, however, did not have a detectable effect on fGCM levels or aggression rates. Our results suggest that increases in aggregation associated with winter feedgrounds affects elk physiology, and the resulting increases in fGCM levels are not likely to be mitigated by management efforts that distribute the feed more widely. Additional research is needed to assess whether these increases in fGCMs directly alter parasite transmission and disease dynamics. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Estimating Loss of Brucella Abortus Antibodies from Age-Specific Serological Data In Elk

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.     

High Genetic Diversity and Structured Populations of the Oriental Fruit Moth in Its Range of Origin

The oriental fruit moth Grapholita ( = Cydia) molesta is a key fruit pest globally. Despite its economic importance, little is known about its population genetics in its putative native range that includes China. We used five polymorphic microsatellite loci and two mitochondrial gene sequences to characterize the population genetic diversity and genetic structure of G. molesta from nine sublocations in three regions of a major fruit growing area of China. Larval samples were collected throughout the season from peach, and in late season, after host switch by the moth to pome fruit, also from apple and pear. We found high numbers of microsatellite alleles and mitochondrial DNA haplotypes in all regions, together with a high number of private alleles and of haplotypes at all sublocations, providing strong evidence that the sampled area belongs to the origin of this species. Samples collected from peach at all sublocations were geographically structured, and a significant albeit weak pattern of isolation-by-distance was found among populations, likely reflecting the low flight capacity of this moth. Interestingly, populations sampled from apple and pear in the late season showed a structure differing from that of populations sampled from peach throughout the season, indicating a selective host switch of a certain part of the population only. The recently detected various olfactory genotypes in G. molesta may underly this selective host switch. These genetic data yield, for the first time, an understanding of population dynamics of G. molesta in its native range, and of a selective host switch from peach to pome fruit, which may have a broad applicability to other global fruit production areas for designing suitable pest management strategies.     

Brucellosis in elk of eastern Idaho

Brucellosis occurs in free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) in the Greater Yellowstone Area, which includes portions of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Brucella abortus was first detected in elk in Idaho in 1998, and from 1998 to 2002, serologic surveillance of hunter-killed elk was conducted in northeastern and southeastern Idaho. Prevalence of antibodies in these elk varied annually, but averaged between 2% and 3%. Elk were also trapped in northeastern Idaho from 1998-2002 and tested for brucellosis using serology and tissue culture. In areas where artificial feeding of elk was done, antibody prevalence ranged from 12% to 80% depending on site, age, and sex. At one feeding site (Rainey Creek), a decline in the prevalence of antibodies (from 56.8% in 1999 to 13.5% in 2002) was detected after the removal of seropositive elk over 4 yr. Seropositive elk removed from two artificial winter feeding sites (Rainey Creek and Conant Creek) were euthanized and sampled or held in captivity and allowed to calve prior to euthanasia and necropsy. At necropsy, B. abortus biovar 1 and B. abortus biovar 4 were isolated from both cows and calves; however, biovar 4 was predominant. A dual infection with both biovars was found in one calf born to a seropositive cow from which biovar 4 was isolated. Abortions (16%), stillbirths (8%), and weak calves (4%) were observed in these elk. These findings confirm the presence of brucellosis in elk in eastern Idaho and provide information on disease management options.     

Host-Seeking Behavior and Dispersal of Triatoma infestans,a Vector of Chagas Disease,under Semi-field Conditions

Chagas disease affects millions of people in Latin America. The control of this vector-borne disease focuses on halting transmission by reducing or eliminating insect vector populations. Most transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, involves insects living within or very close to households and feeding mostly on domestic animals. As animal hosts can be intermittently present it is important to understand how host availability can modify transmission risk to humans and to characterize the host-seeking dispersal of triatomine vectors on a very fine scale. We used a semi-field system with motion-detection cameras to characterize the dispersal of Triatoma infestans, and compare the behavior of vector populations in the constant presence of hosts (guinea pigs), and after the removal of the hosts. The emigration rate – net insect population decline in original refuge – following host removal was on average 19.7% of insects per 10 days compared to 10.2% in constant host populations (p = 0.029). However, dispersal of T. infestans occurred in both directions, towards and away from the initial location of the hosts. The majority of insects that moved towards the original location of guinea pigs remained there for 4 weeks. Oviposition and mortality were observed and analyzed in the context of insect dispersal, but only mortality was higher in the group where animal hosts were removed (p-value <0.01). We discuss different survival strategies associated with the observed behavior and its implications for vector control. Removing domestic animals in infested areas increases vector dispersal from the first day of host removal. The implications of these patterns of vector dispersal in a field setting are not yet known but could result in movement towards human rooms.     

Global Burden of Human Brucellosis: A Systematic Review of Disease Frequency

Background

This report presents a systematic review of scientific literature published between 1990–2010 relating to the frequency of human brucellosis, commissioned by WHO. The objectives were to identify high quality disease incidence data to complement existing knowledge of the global disease burden and, ultimately, to contribute towards the calculation of a Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) estimate for brucellosis.

Methods/Principal Findings

Thirty three databases were searched, identifying 2,385 articles relating to human brucellosis. Based on strict screening criteria, 60 studies were selected for quality assessment, of which only 29 were of sufficient quality for data analysis. Data were only available from 15 countries in the regions of Northern Africa and Middle East, Western Europe, Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Asia. Half of the studies presented incidence data, six of which were longitudinal prospective studies, and half presented seroprevalence data which were converted to incidence rates. Brucellosis incidence varied widely between, and within, countries. Although study biases cannot be ruled out, demographic, occupational, and socioeconomic factors likely play a role. Aggregated data at national or regional levels do not capture these complexities of disease dynamics and, consequently, at-risk populations or areas may be overlooked. In many brucellosis-endemic countries, health systems are weak and passively-acquired official data underestimate the true disease burden.

Conclusions

High quality research is essential for an accurate assessment of disease burden, particularly in Eastern Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Central and South America and Africa where data are lacking. Providing formal epidemiological and statistical training to researchers is essential for improving study quality. An integrated approach to disease surveillance involving both human health and veterinary services would allow a better understanding of disease dynamics at the animal-human interface, as well as a more cost-effective utilisation of resources.     

Avian Host-Selection by Culex pipiens in Experimental Trials

Evidence from field studies suggests that Culex pipiens, the primary mosquito vector of West Nile virus (WNV) in the northeastern and north central United States, feeds preferentially on American robins (Turdus migratorius). To determine the contribution of innate preferences to observed preference patterns in the field, we conducted host preference trials with a known number of adult female C. pipiens in outdoor cages comparing the relative attractiveness of American robins with two common sympatric bird species, European starling, Sternus vulgaris and house sparrow, Passer domesticus. Host seeking C. pipiens were three times more likely to enter robin-baited traps when with the alternate host was a European starling (n = 4 trials; OR = 3.06; CI [1.42–6.46]) and almost twice more likely when the alternative was a house sparrow (n = 8 trials; OR = 1.80; CI = [1.22–2.90]). There was no difference in the probability of trap entry when two robins were offered (n = 8 trials). Logistic regression analysis determined that the age, sex and weight of the birds, the date of the trial, starting-time, temperature, humidity, wind-speed and age of the mosquitoes had no effect on the probability of a choosing a robin over an alternate bird. Findings indicate that preferential feeding by C. pipiens mosquitoes on certain avian hosts is likely to be inherent, and we discuss the implications innate host preferences may have on enzootic WNV transmission.     

Coral Reef Disturbance and Recovery Dynamics Differ across Gradients of Localized Stressors in the Mariana Islands

The individual contribution of natural disturbances, localized stressors, and environmental regimes upon longer-term reef dynamics remains poorly resolved for many locales despite its significance for management. This study examined coral reefs in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands across a 12-year period that included elevated Crown-of-Thorns Starfish densities (COTS) and tropical storms that were drivers of spatially-inconsistent disturbance and recovery patterns. At the island scale, disturbance impacts were highest on Saipan with reduced fish sizes, grazing urchins, and water quality, despite having a more favorable geological foundation for coral growth compared with Rota. However, individual drivers of reef dynamics were better quantified through site-level investigations that built upon island generalizations. While COTS densities were the strongest predictors of coral decline as expected, interactive terms that included wave exposure and size of the overall fish assemblages improved models (R² and AIC values). Both wave exposure and fish size diminished disturbance impacts and had negative associations with COTS. However, contrasting findings emerged when examining net ecological change across the 12-year period. Wave exposure had a ubiquitous, positive influence upon the net change in favorable benthic substrates (i.e. corals and other heavily calcifying substrates, R² = 0.17 for all reeftypes grouped), yet including interactive terms for herbivore size and grazing urchin densities, as well as stratifying by major reeftypes, substantially improved models (R² = 0.21 to 0.89, lower AIC scores). Net changes in coral assemblages (i.e., coral ordination scores) were more sensitive to herbivore size or the water quality proxy acting independently (R² = 0.28 to 0.44). We conclude that COTS densities were the strongest drivers of coral decline, however, net ecological change was most influenced by localized stressors, especially herbivore sizes and grazing urchin densities. Interestingly, fish size, rather than biomass, was consistently a better predictor, supporting allometric, size-and-function relationships of fish assemblages. Management implications are discussed.     

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.     

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Infection in Patients Attending a Baltimore City Emergency Department

Objectives

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is a common sexually transmitted disease, but there is limited data on its epidemiology among urban populations. The urban Emergency Department (ED) is a potential venue for surveillance as it predominantly serves an inner city minority population. We evaluate the seroprevalence and factors associated with HSV-2 infection among patients attending the Johns Hopkins Hospital Adult Emergency Department (JHH ED).

Methods

An identity unlinked-serosurvey was conducted between 6/2007 and 9/2007 in the JHH ED; sera were tested by the Focus HerpeSelect ELISA. Prevalence risk ratios (PRR) were used to determine factors associated with HSV-2 infection.

Results

Of 3,408 serum samples, 1,853 (54.4%) were seropositive for HSV-2. Females (adjPRR  = 1.47, 95% CI 1.38–1.56), non-Hispanic blacks (adjPRR  = 2.03, 95% CI 1.82–2.27), single (adjPRR  = 1.15, 95% CI 1.07–1.25), divorced (adjPRR  = 1.28, 95% CI 1.15–1.41), and unemployed patients (adjPRR  = 1.13, 95% CI 1.05–1.21) had significantly higher rates of HSV-2 infection. Though certain zip codes had significantly higher seroprevalence of HSV-2, this effect was completely attenuated when controlling for age and gender.

Conclusions

Seroprevalence of HSV-2 in the JHH ED was higher than U.S. national estimates; however, factors associated with HSV-2 infection were similar. The high seroprevalence of HSV-2 in this urban ED highlights the need for targeted testing and treatment. Cross-sectional serosurveys in the urban ED may help to examine the epidemiology of HSV-2.     

Avian Influenza Seroprevalence and Biosecurity Risk Factors in Maryland Backyard Poultry: A Cross-Sectional Study

Major implications on a country''s economy, food source, and public health. With recent concern over the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks around the world, government agencies are carefully monitoring and inspecting live bird markets, commercial flocks, and migratory bird populations. However, there remains limited surveillance of non-commercial poultry. Therefore, a cross-sectional study was conducted in backyard poultry flocks using a convenience sampling method across three regions of Maryland from July 2011 to August 2011. The objective of this study was to develop a better understanding of the ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza by investigating the prevalence and seroprevalence in this potentially vulnerable population and by evaluating biosecurity risk factors associated with positive findings. Serum, tracheal, and cloacal swabs were randomly collected from 262 birds among 39 registered premises. Analysis indicated bird and flock seroprevalence as 4.2% (11/262) and 23.1% (9/39), respectively. Based on RT-qPCR analysis, none of the samples were found to be positive for AI RNA and evidence of AI hemagglutinin subtypes H5, H7, or H9 were not detected. Although no statistically significant biosecurity associations were identified (p≤0.05), AI seroprevalence was positively associated with exposure to waterfowl, pest control, and location. AI seropositive flocks exposed to waterfowl were 3.14 times as likely to be AI seropositive than those not exposed (p = 0.15). AI seropositive flocks that did not use pest control were 2.5 times as likely to be AI seropositive compared to those that did and AI seropositive flocks located in the Northern region of Maryland were 2.8 times as likely to be AI seropositive than those that were located elsewhere.     

Effects of Wolves on Elk and Cattle Behaviors: Implications for Livestock Production and Wolf Conservation

Background

In many areas, livestock are grazed within wolf (Canis lupus) range. Predation and harassment of livestock by wolves creates conflict and is a significant challenge for wolf conservation. Wild prey, such as elk (Cervus elaphus), perform anti-predator behaviors. Artificial selection of cattle (Bos taurus) might have resulted in attenuation or absence of anti-predator responses, or in erratic and inconsistent responses. Regardless, such responses might have implications on stress and fitness.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared elk and cattle anti-predator responses to wolves in southwest Alberta, Canada within home ranges and livestock pastures, respectively. We deployed satellite- and GPS-telemetry collars on wolves, elk, and cattle (n = 16, 10 and 78, respectively) and measured seven prey response variables during periods of wolf presence and absence (speed, path sinuosity, time spent head-up, distance to neighboring animals, terrain ruggedness, slope and distance to forest). During independent periods of wolf presence (n = 72), individual elk increased path sinuosity (Z = −2.720, P = 0.007) and used more rugged terrain (Z = −2.856, P = 0.004) and steeper slopes (Z = −3.065, P = 0.002). For cattle, individual as well as group behavioral analyses were feasible and these indicated increased path sinuosity (Z = −2.720, P = 0.007) and decreased distance to neighbors (Z = −2.551, P = 0.011). In addition, cattle groups showed a number of behavioral changes concomitant to wolf visits, with variable direction in changes.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results suggest both elk and cattle modify their behavior in relation to wolf presence, with potential energetic costs. Our study does not allow evaluating the efficacy of anti-predator behaviors, but indicates that artificial selection did not result in their absence in cattle. The costs of wolf predation on livestock are often compensated considering just the market value of the animal killed. However, society might consider refunding some additional costs (e.g., weight loss and reduced reproduction) that might be associated with the changes in cattle behaviors that we documented.     

Serological Evidence for Non-Lethal Exposures of Mongolian Wild Birds to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus

Surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) in wild birds is logistically demanding due to the very low rates of virus detection. Serological approaches may be more cost effective as they require smaller sample sizes to identify exposed populations. We hypothesized that antigenic differences between classical Eurasian H5 subtype viruses (which have low pathogenicity in chickens) and H5N1 viruses of the Goose/Guangdong/96 H5 lineage (which are HPAIV) may be used to differentiate populations where HPAIVs have been circulating, from those where they have not. To test this we performed hemagglutination inhibition assays to compare the reactivity of serum samples from wild birds in Mongolia (where HPAIV has been circulating, n = 1,832) and Europe (where HPAIV has been rare or absent, n = 497) to a panel of reference viruses including classical Eurasian H5 (of low pathogenicity), and five HPAIV H5N1 antigens of the Asian lineage A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96. Antibody titres were detected against at least one of the test antigens for 182 Mongolian serum samples (total seroprevalence of 0.10, n = 1,832, 95% adjusted Wald confidence limits of 0.09–0.11) and 25 of the European sera tested (total seroprevalence of 0.05, n = 497, 95% adjusted Wald confidence limits of 0.03–0.07). A bias in antibody titres to HPAIV antigens was found in the Mongolian sample set (22/182) that was absent in the European sera (0/25). Although the interpretation of serological data from wild birds is complicated by the possibility of exposure to multiple strains, and variability in the timing of exposure, these findings suggest that a proportion of the Mongolian population had survived exposure to HPAIV, and that serological assays may enhance the targeting of traditional HPAIV surveillance toward populations where isolation of HPAIV is more likely.     

Seroepidemiology of Toxoplasma gondii Infection among Healthy Blood Donors in Taiwan

Toxoplasma gondii is an opportunistic, zoonotic pathogen with a worldwide distribution. There are large variations in the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in different regions of the world. Although toxoplasmosis became a notifiable communicable disease in Taiwan in 2007, little is known about its epidemiology among the general population. This cross-sectional study aimed to survey the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection and its risk factors among healthy blood donors in Taiwan. Through collaborating with the Taiwan Blood Services Foundation, a total of 1,783 healthy blood donors from all six-branch blood service centers participated in this study. The blood samples were tested for the presence of T. gondii antibodies and DNA using enzyme immunoassays and real-time PCR, respectively. Structured questionnaires were used to gather information on risk factors for T. gondii infection. Of the 1,783 participants, 166 (9.3%) tested positive for anti-Toxoplasma IgG, while 5 (0.28%) tested positive for anti-Toxoplasma IgM. The five IgM positive donors had high avidity antibodies suggestive of past infection. No active parasitemia was detected by real-time PCR assays. Multivariate logistic regression showed that undercooked pork meat consumption (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3–6.5), raw mussels consumption (adjusted OR = 5.3; 95% CI: 1.5–19.1), having a cat in the household (adjusted OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2–3.2), a lower education level (adjusted OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.1–2.3), and donation place in eastern Taiwan (adjusted OR = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.6–3.9) were independent risk factors for Toxoplasma seropositivity. These findings provide information on the seroprevalence and epidemiology of T. gondii infection among healthy blood donors in Taiwan.     

Temporal and spatial variation of larval parasitism in non-outbreaking populations of a folivorous moth

In order to assess the role of parasitoids in the regulation of non-outbreaking populations of Epirrita autumnata, a geometrid lepidopteran with outbreaking populations in northern Europe, we examined the temporal and spatial variation of larval parasitism in southwestern Finland during 6 successive years. The study was carried out on two spatial scales, among trees within sites of about 1 ha and among sites separated by distances of 2–10 km, using experimental and observational approaches respectively. The overall percent parasitism was independent of host density on both spatial scales, while temporally it fluctuated only little. Of the two main parasitoids, the commoner one, Protapanteles immunis, showed a variable response to host density on the larger spatial scale and negative density dependence on the smaller scale. Temporally, parasitism caused by this species was independent of host density. Another parasitoid, Phobocampe bicingulata, showed positive density dependence on the smaller spatial scale and had a variable response on the larger scale, but exhibited negative density dependence over time. The results of this study caution against drawing conclusions concerning population regulation on the grounds of spatial density dependence alone. Larval parasitoids apparently do not maintain low densities in the E. autumnata populations studied. However, they may suppress E. autumnata densities to a level low enough for density-dependent mortality factor(s) to become regulating. Among other mortality factors of E. autumnata, pupal predation has been found to be temporally positively density-dependent. Received: 19 October 1999 / Accepted: 10 January 2000     

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

Background

In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor.

Conclusion

Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.     

The Role of Medical Language in Changing Public Perceptions of Illness

This study was designed to investigate the impact of medical terminology on perceptions of disease. Specifically, we look at the changing public perceptions of newly medicalized disorders with accompanying newly medicalized terms (e.g. impotence has become erectile dysfunction disorder). Does using “medicalese” to label a recently medicalized disorder lead to a change in the perception of that condition? Undergraduate students (n = 52) rated either the medical or lay label for recently medicalized disorders (such as erectile dysfunction disorder vs. impotence) and established medical conditions (such as a myocardial infarction vs. heart attack) for their perceived seriousness, disease representativeness and prevalence. Students considered the medical label of the recently medicalized disease to be more serious (mean = 4.95 (SE = .27) vs. mean = 3.77 (SE = .24) on a ten point scale), more representative of a disease (mean = 2.47 (SE = .09) vs. mean = 1.83 (SE = .09) on a four point scale), and have lower prevalence (mean = 68 (SE = 12.6) vs. mean = 122 (SE = 18.1) out of 1,000) than the same disease described using common language. A similar pattern was not seen in the established medical conditions, even when controlled for severity. This study demonstrates that the use of medical language in communication can induce bias in perception; a simple switch in terminology results in a disease being perceived as more serious, more likely to be a disease, and more likely to be a rare condition. These findings regarding the conceptualization of disease have implications for many areas, including medical communication with the public, advertising, and public policy.