Cougar Kill Rate and Prey Composition in a Multiprey System

Abstract: Assessing the impact of large carnivores on ungulate prey has been challenging in part because even basic components of predation are difficult to measure. For cougars (Puma concolor), limited field data are available concerning fundamental aspects of predation, such as kill rate, or the influence of season, cougar demography, or prey vulnerability on predation, leading to uncertainty over how best to predict or interpret cougar-ungulate dynamics. Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry used to locate predation events in the field is an efficient way to monitor large numbers of cougars over long periods in all seasons. We applied GPS telemetry techniques combined with occasional snow-tracking to locate 1,509 predation events for 53 marked and an unknown number of unmarked cougars and amassed 9,543 days of continuous predation monitoring for a subset of 42 GPS-collared cougars in west-central Alberta, Canada. Cougars killed ungulates at rates near the upper end of the previously recorded range, and demography substantially influenced annual kill rate in terms of both number of ungulates (subad F [SAF] = 24, subad M [SAM] = 31, ad M = 35, ad F = 42, ad F with kittens <6 months = 47, ad F with kittens <6 months = 67) and kg of prey (SAF = 1,441, SAM = 2,051, ad M = 4,708, ad F = 2,423, ad F with kittens <6 months = 2,794, ad F with kittens >6 months = 4,280). Demography also influenced prey composition; adult females subsisted primarily on deer (Odocoileus spp.), whereas adult males killed more large ungulates (e.g., moose [Alces alces]), and subadults incorporated the highest proportion of nonungulate prey. Predation patterns varied by season and cougars killed ungulates 1.5 times more frequently in summer when juveniles dominated the diet. Higher kill rate in summer appeared to be driven primarily by greater vulnerability of juvenile prey and secondarily by reduced handling time for smaller prey. Moreover, in accordance with predictions of the reproductive vulnerability hypothesis, female ungulates made up a higher proportion of cougar diet in spring just prior to and during the birthing period, whereas the proportion of males increased dramatically in autumn during the rut, supporting the notion that prey vulnerability influences cougar predation. Our results have implications for the impact cougars have on ungulate populations and have application for using cougar harvest to manage ungulates.     

Seasonal Foraging Ecology of Non-Migratory Cougars in a System with Migrating Prey

We tested for seasonal differences in cougar (Puma concolor) foraging behaviors in the Southern Yellowstone Ecosystem, a multi-prey system in which ungulate prey migrate, and cougars do not. We recorded 411 winter prey and 239 summer prey killed by 28 female and 10 male cougars, and an additional 37 prey items by unmarked cougars. Deer composed 42.4% of summer cougar diets but only 7.2% of winter diets. Males and females, however, selected different proportions of different prey; male cougars selected more elk (Cervus elaphus) and moose (Alces alces) than females, while females killed greater proportions of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and small prey than males. Kill rates did not vary by season or between males and females. In winter, cougars were more likely to kill prey on the landscape as: 1) elevation decreased, 2) distance to edge habitat decreased, 3) distance to large bodies of water decreased, and 4) steepness increased, whereas in summer, cougars were more likely to kill in areas as: 1) elevation decreased, 2) distance to edge habitat decreased, and 3) distance from large bodies of water increased. Our work highlighted that seasonal prey selection exhibited by stationary carnivores in systems with migratory prey is not only driven by changing prey vulnerability, but also by changing prey abundances. Elk and deer migrations may also be sustaining stationary cougar populations and creating apparent competition scenarios that result in higher predation rates on migratory bighorn sheep in winter and pronghorn in summer. Nevertheless, cougar predation on rare ungulates also appeared to be influenced by individual prey selection.     

Evaluating Global Positioning System Telemetry Techniques for Estimating Cougar Predation Parameters

ABSTRACT Using clusters of locations obtained from Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry collars to identify predation events may allow more efficient estimation of behavioral predation parameters for the study and management of large carnivore predator-prey systems. Applications of field- and model-based GPS telemetry cluster techniques, however, have met with mixed success. To further evaluate and refine these techniques for cougars (Puma concolor), we used data from visits to 1,735 GPS telemetry clusters, 637 of which were locations where cougars killed prey >8 kg in a multi-prey system in west-central Alberta. We tested 1) whether clusters were reliably created at kill locations, 2) the ability of logistic regression models to identify kill occurrence (prey >8 kg) and multinomial regression models to identify the prey species at a kill cluster, and 3) the duration of monitoring required to accurately estimate kill rate and prey composition. We found that GPS collars programmed to attempt location fixes every 3 hours consistently identified locations where prey >8 kg were handled, and cluster creation was robust to GPS location acquisition failures (poor collar fix success). The logistic regression model was capable of estimating cougar kill rate with a mean 5-fold cross validation error of <10%, provided the appropriate probability cutoff distinguishing kill clusters from non-kill clusters was selected. Logistic models also can be used to direct visits to clusters, reducing field efforts by as much as 25%, while still locating >95% of all kills. The multinomial model overpredicted occurrence of primary prey (deer) in the diet and underpredicted consumption of alternate prey (e.g., elk and moose) by as much as 100%. We conclude that a purely model-based approach should be used cautiously and that field visitation is required to obtain reliable information on species, sex, age, or condition of prey. Ultimately, we recommend a combined approach that involves using models to direct field visitation when estimating behavioral predation parameters. Regardless of the monitoring approach, long continuous monitoring periods (i.e., >100 days of a 180-day period) were necessary to reduce bias and imprecision in kill rate and prey composition estimates.     

Differential prey use by male and female cougars in Washington

Male and female predators are often assumed to have the same effects on prey. Because of differences in body size and behavior, however, male and female predators may use different species, sexes, and ages of prey, which could have important implications for wildlife conservation and management. We tested for differential prey use by male and female cougars (Puma concolor) from 2003 to 2008 in Washington State. We predicted that male cougars would kill a greater proportion of larger and older prey (i.e., adult elk [Cervus elaphus]), whereas females would kill smaller and younger prey (i.e., elk calves, mule deer [Odocoileus hemionus]). We marked cougars with Global Positioning System (GPS) radio collars and investigated 436 predation sites. We located prey remains at 345 sites from 9 male and 9 female cougars. We detected 184 mule deer, 142 elk, and 17 remains from 4 other species. We used log-linear modeling to detect differences in species and age of prey killed among cougar reproductive classes. Solitary females and females with dependent offspring killed more mule deer than elk (143 vs. 83, P < 0.01), whereas males killed more elk than mule deer (59 vs. 41, P < 0.01). Proportionately, males killed 4 times more adult elk than did females (24% vs. 6% of kills) and females killed 2 times more adult mule deer than did males (26% vs. 15% of kills). Managers should consider the effects of sex of predator in conservation and management of ungulates, particularly when managing for sensitive species. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Cougar Prey Selection in a White-Tailed Deer and Mule Deer Community

Abstract Widespread mule deer (Odocoilus hemionous) declines coupled with white-tailed deer (O. virginianus) increases prompted us to investigate the role of cougar (Puma concolor) predation in a white-tailed deer, mule deer, and cougar community in northeast Washington, USA. We hypothesized that cougars select for and disproportionately prey on mule deer in such multiple-prey communities. We estimated relative annual and seasonal prey abundance (prey availability) and documented 60 cougar kills (prey usage) from 2002 to 2004. White-tailed deer and mule deer comprised 72% and 28% of the total large prey population and 60% and 40% of the total large prey killed, respectively. Cougars selected for mule deer on an annual basis (α_md = 0.63 vs. α_wt = 0.37; P = 0.066). We also detected strong seasonal selection for mule deer with cougars killing more mule deer in summer (α_md = 0.64) but not in winter (α_md = 0.53). Cougars showed no seasonal selection for white-tailed deer despite their higher relative abundance. The mean annual kill interval of 6.68 days between kills varied little by season (winter = 7.0 days/kill, summer = 6.6 days/kill; P = 0.78) or prey species (white-tailed deer = 7.0 days/kill, mule deer = 6.1 days/kill; P = 0.58). Kill locations for both prey species occurred at higher elevations during summer months (summer = 1,090 m, winter = 908 m; P = 0.066). We suspect that cougars are primarily subsisting on abundant white-tailed deer during winter but following these deer to higher elevations as they migrate to their summer ranges, resulting in a greater spatial overlap between cougars and mule deer and disproportionate predation on mule deer.     

Comparative Patterns of Predation by Cougars and Recolonizing Wolves in Montana's Madison Range

Abstract: Numerous studies have documented how prey may use antipredator strategies to reduce the risk of predation from a single predator. However, when a recolonizing predator enters an already complex predator—prey system, specific antipredator behaviors may conflict and avoidance of one predator may enhance vulnerability to another. We studied the patterns of prey selection by recolonizing wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Puma concolor) in response to prey resource selection in the northern Madison Range, Montana, USA. Elk (Cervus elaphus) were the primary prey for wolves, and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) were the primary prey for cougars, but elk made up an increasingly greater proportion of cougar kills annually. Although both predators preyed disproportionately on male elk, wolves were most likely to prey on males in poor physical condition. Although we found that the predators partitioned hunting habitats, structural complexity at wolf kill sites increased over time, whereas complexity of cougar kill sites decreased. We concluded that shifts by prey to structurally complex refugia were attempts by formerly naïve prey to lessen predation risk from wolves; nevertheless, shifting to more structurally complex refugia might have made prey more vulnerable to cougars. After a change in predator exposure, use of refugia may represent a compromise to minimize overall risk. As agencies formulate management strategies relative to wolf recolonization, the potential for interactive predation effects (i.e., facilitation or antagonism) should be considered.     

Cougar survival and source-sink structure on Greater Yellowstone's Northern Range

We studied survival and causes of mortality of radiocollared cougars (Puma concolor) on the Greater Yellowstone Northern Range (GYNR) prior to (1987–1994) and after wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction (1998–2005) and evaluated temporal, spatial, and environmental factors that explain variation in adult, subadult, and kitten survival. Using Program MARK and multimodel inference, we modeled cougar survival based on demographic status, season, and landscape attributes. Our best models for adult and independent subadults indicated that females survived better than males and survival increased with age until cougars reached older ages. Lower elevations and increasing density of roads, particularly in areas open to cougar hunting north of Yellowstone National Park (YNP), increased mortality risks for cougars on the GYNR. Indices of ungulate biomass, cougar and wolf population size, winter severity, rainfall, and individual characteristics such as the presence of dependent young, age class, and use of Park or Wilderness were not important predictors of survival. Kitten survival increased with age, was lower during winter, increased with increasing minimum estimates of elk calf biomass, and increased with increasing density of adult male cougars. Using our best model, we mapped adult cougar survival on the GYNR landscape. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated a good model fit for both female (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.70–0.92, n = 35 locations) and male cougars (AUC = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.74–0.94, n = 49 locations) relative to hunter harvest locations in our study area. Using minimum estimates of survival necessary to sustain the study population, we developed a source-sink surface and we identify several measures that resource management agencies can take to enhance cougar population management based on a source-sink strategy. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Prey Specialization by Cougars on Feral Horses in a Desert Environment

Natural controls on the distribution, abundance, or growth rates of exotic species are a desirable mode of intervention because of lower costs compared to anthropogenic controls and greater social acceptance. In the Great Basin, cougars (Puma concolor) are the most widely distributed carnivore capable of killing large ungulate prey. Populations of feral horses (Equus ferus) are widely distributed throughout the Great Basin and can grow at rates up to 20%/year. Although cougars exhibit distributional overlap with horses, it has been assumed that predation is minimal because of differences in habitat use and body-size limitations. To evaluate this hypothesis, we monitored the diets of 21 global positioning system (GPS)-collared cougars in the western Great Basin (5 males, 8 females) and eastern Sierra Nevada (2 males, 6 females) from 2009–2012. We investigated 1,310 potential kill sites and located prey remains of 820 predation events. We compared prey composition and kill rates of cougars inhabiting the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin, and among male and female cougars across seasons. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the effects of prey availability and habitat characteristics on the probability of predation on horses by cougars. Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) comprised 91% of prey items killed on the Sierra Nevada reference site but only comprised 29% of prey items in the Great Basin study area. Average annual kill rates for deer differed between the Sierra Nevada ( = 0.85 deer/week, range = 0.44–1.3) and Great Basin ( = 0.21 deer/week, range = 0.00–0.43). Diets of cougars in the Great Basin were composed predominantly of horses (59.6%, n = 460 prey items; 13 individuals). Ten cougars regularly consumed horses, and horses were the most abundant prey in the diet of 8 additional individuals in the Great Basin. Cougars on average killed 0.38 horses/week in the Great Basin (range=0.00–0.94 horses/week). Differences in predation on horses between the sexes of cougars were striking; Great Basin females incorporated more horses across all age classes year-round, whereas male cougars tended to exploit neonatal young during spring and summer before switching to deer during winter. Within GLMM models, the probability of predation on horses compared to other prey species increased with elevation, horse density, and decreasing density of mule deer on the landscape, and was more likely to occur in sagebrush (Artemesia spp.) than in pinyon (Pinus monophylla)–juniper (Juniperus osteosperma) forests. Behavior of individual cougars accounted for more than a third of the variation explained by our top models predicting predation on horses in the Great Basin. At landscape scales, cougar predation is unlikely to limit the growth of feral horse populations. In the Great Basin ecosystem, however, cougars of both sexes successfully preyed on horses of all age classes. Moreover, some reproductive, female cougars were almost entirely dependent on feral horses year-round. Taken together, our data suggest that cougars may be an effective predator of feral horses, and that some of our previous assumptions about this relationship should be reevaluated and integrated into management and planning. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Summer predation rates on ungulate prey by a large keystone predator: how many ungulates does a large predator kill?

Estimates of predation rates by large predators can provide valuable information on their potential impact on their ungulate prey populations. This is especially the case for pumas Puma concolor and its main prey, mule deer Odocoileus hemionus . However, only limited information on predation rates of pumas exist where mule deer are the only ungulate prey available. I used VHF telemetry data collected over 24-h monitoring sessions and once daily over consecutive days to derive two independent estimates of puma predation rates on mule deer where they were the only large prey available. For the 24-h data, I had 48 time blocks on female pumas with kittens, 43 blocks on females without kittens and 30 blocks on males. For the daily consecutive data, the average number of consecutive days followed was 51.5±4.2 days. There were data on five female pumas with kittens, five pregnant females and nine females without kittens. Predation rates over an average month of 30 days from the 24-h monitoring sessions were 2.0 mule deer per puma month for males (15.1 days per kill), 2.1 mule deer per puma month (14.3 days per kill) for females without kittens and 2.5 mule deer per puma month (12.0 days per kill) for pregnant females and females with kittens. For the consecutive daily data, females without kittens had an estimated predation rate of 2.1±0.14 mule deer per puma month (14.9±0.90 days per kill). Pregnant and females with kittens had predation rates of 2.7±0.18 and 2.6±0.21 mule deer per puma month, respectively (11.4±0.72 and 12.0±1.1 days per kill, respectively). Predation rates estimated in this study compared with those estimated by energetic demand for pumas in the study area but were lower than other field derived estimates. These data help increase our understanding of predation impacts of large predators on their prey.     

Recolonizing carnivores: Is cougar predation behaviorally mediated by bears?

Conservation and management efforts have resulted in population increases and range expansions for some apex predators, potentially changing trophic cascades and foraging behavior. Changes in sympatric carnivore and dominant scavenger populations provide opportunities to assess how carnivores affect one another. Cougars (Puma concolor) were the apex predator in the Great Basin of Nevada, USA, for over 80 years. Black bears (Ursus americanus) have recently recolonized the area and are known to heavily scavenge on cougar kills. To evaluate the impacts of sympatric, recolonizing bears on cougar foraging behavior in the Great Basin, we investigated kill sites of 31 cougars between 2009 and 2017 across a range of bear densities. We modeled the variation in feeding bout duration (number of nights spent feeding on a prey item) and the proportion of primary prey, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), in cougar diets using mixed‐effects models. We found that feeding bout duration was driven primarily by the size of the prey item being consumed, local bear density, and the presence of dependent kittens. The proportion of mule deer in cougar diet across all study areas declined over time, was lower for male cougars, increased with the presence of dependent kittens, and increased with higher bear densities. In sites with feral horses (Equus ferus), a novel large prey, cougar consumption of feral horses increased over time. Our results suggest that higher bear densities over time may reduce cougar feeding bout durations and influence the prey selection trade‐off for cougars when alternative, but more dangerous, large prey are available. Shifts in foraging behavior in multicarnivore systems can have cascading effects on prey selection. This study highlights the importance of measuring the impacts of sympatric apex predators and dominant scavengers on a shared resource base, providing a foundation for monitoring dynamic multipredator/scavenger systems.     

Assessing differential prey selection patterns between two sympatric large carnivores

Several conceptual models describing patterns of prey selection by predators have been proposed, but such models rarely have been tested empirically, particularly with terrestrial carnivores. We examined patterns of prey selection by sympatric wolves ( Canis lupus ) and cougars ( Puma concolor ) to determine i) if both predators selected disadvantaged prey disproportionately from the prey population, and ii) if the specific nature and intensity of prey selection differed according to disparity in hunting behavior between predator species. We documented prey characteristics and kill site attributes of predator kills during winters 1999–2001 in Idaho, and located 120 wolf-killed and 98 cougar-killed ungulates on our study site. Elk ( Cervus elephus ) were the primary prey for both predators, followed by mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ). Both predators preyed disproportionately on elk calves and old individuals; among mule deer, wolves appeared to select for fawns, whereas cougars killed primarily adults. Nutritional status of prey, as determined by percent femur marrow fat, was consistently poorer in wolf-killed prey. We found that wolf kills occurred in habitat that was more reflective of the entire study area than cougar kills, suggesting that the coursing hunting behavior of wolves likely operated on a larger spatial scale than did the ambush hunting strategy of cougars. We concluded that the disparity in prey selection and hunting habitat between predators probably was a function of predator-specific hunting behavior and capture success, where the longer prey chases and lower capture success of wolf packs mandated a stronger selection for disadvantaged prey. For cougars, prey selection seemed to be limited primarily by prey size, which could be a function of the solitary hunting behavior of this species and the risks associated with capturing prime-aged prey.     

Discriminating grey wolf kill sites using GPS clusters

Characteristics of spatio-temporal clusters of locations from global positioning system (GPS)-collars have been used to distinguish kill sites of various predators. We deployed GPS collars on 9 grey wolves (Canis lupus) in the southwest area of Prince Albert National Park in central Saskatchewan, Canada, and used a GPS location clustering algorithm to identify kill sites of ungulate and other large-bodied prey during winter, December 2013–March 2017. We used logistic regression in a model-selection framework to determine if spatio-temporal and habitat characteristics of grey wolf GPS clusters could be used to reliably identify sites where wolves had killed prey. Global positioning system clusters were more likely to be wolf kill sites when they had a higher number of location fixes, did not begin within 300 m and 30 days of a previous cluster, did not begin within 1 km and 4 days of a previous cluster, began in the evening, had a high percentage of fixes occurring during the day, occurred farther from open habitat, and had both a high number of location fixes and a high percentage of fixes occurring during the day. Our results highlight the limits of using spatio-temporal clusters with a fix rate of 1/hour to discriminate wolf kill sites in systems dominated by deer (Odocoileus spp.) because of the associated short handling time with these prey.     

Implications of chronic wasting disease,cougar predation,and reduced recruitment for elk management

Emerging diseases and expanding carnivore populations may have profound implications for ungulate harvest management and population regulation. To better understand effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) and cougar (Puma concolor) predation, we studied mortality and recruitment of elk (Cervus elaphus) at Wind Cave National Park (WICA) during 2005–2009. We marked 202 elk (83 subadult M and 119 subadult and ad F) with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars, observed 28 deaths during 74,220 days of monitoring, and investigated 42 additional deaths of unmarked elk found dead. Survival rates were similar for males and females and averaged 0.863 (SE = 0.025) annually. Leading causes of mortality included hunting (0.065, SE = 0.019), CWD (0.034, SE = 0.012), and cougar predation (0.029, SE = 0.012). Marked elk killed by hunters and cougars typically were in good physical condition and not infected with CWD. Effects of mortality on population growth were exacerbated by low rates of pregnancy (subadults = 9.5%, SE = 6.6%; ad = 76.9%, SE = 4.2%) and perinatal survival (0.49, SE = 0.085 from 1 Feb to 1 Sep). Chronic wasting disease, increased predation, and reduced recruitment reduced the rate of increase for elk at WICA to approximately λ = 1.00 (SE = 0.027) during the past decade. Lower rates of increase are mitigating effects of elk on park vegetation, other wildlife, and neighboring lands and will facilitate population control, but may reduce opportunities for elk hunting outside the park. © 2011 The Wildlife Society     

Human–Cougar interactions in the wildland–urban interface of Colorado's front range

As human populations continue to expand across the world, the need to understand and manage wildlife populations within the wildland – urban interface is becoming commonplace. This is especially true for large carnivores as these species are not always tolerated by the public and can pose a risk to human safety. Unfortunately, information on wildlife species within the wildland – urban interface is sparse, and knowledge from wildland ecosystems does not always translate well to human‐dominated systems. Across western North America, cougars (Puma concolor) are routinely utilizing wildland – urban habitats while human use of these areas for homes and recreation is increasing. From 2007 to 2015, we studied cougar resource selection, human–cougar interaction, and cougar conflict management within the wildland – urban landscape of the northern Front Range in Colorado, USA. Resource selection of cougars within this landscape was typical of cougars in more remote settings but cougar interactions with humans tended to occur in locations cougars typically selected against, especially those in proximity to human structures. Within higher housing density areas, 83% of cougar use occurred at night, suggesting cougars generally avoided human activity by partitioning time. Only 24% of monitored cougars were reported for some type of conflict behavior but 39% of cougars sampled during feeding site investigations of GPS collar data were found to consume domestic prey items. Aversive conditioning was difficult to implement and generally ineffective for altering cougar behaviors but was thought to potentially have long‐term benefits of reinforcing fear of humans in cougars within human‐dominated areas experiencing little cougar hunting pressure. Cougars are able to exploit wildland – urban landscapes effectively, and conflict is relatively uncommon compared with the proportion of cougar use. Individual characteristics and behaviors of cougars within these areas are highly varied; therefore, conflict management is unique to each situation and should target individual behaviors. The ability of individual cougars to learn to exploit these environments with minimal human–cougar interactions suggests that maintaining older age structures, especially females, and providing a matrix of habitats, including large connected open‐space areas, would be beneficial to cougars and effectively reduce the potential for conflict.     

Effect of sociality and season on gray wolf (Canis lupus) foraging behavior: implications for estimating summer kill rate

Background

Understanding how kill rates vary among seasons is required to understand predation by vertebrate species living in temperate climates. Unfortunately, kill rates are only rarely estimated during summer.

Methodology/Principal Findings

For several wolf packs in Yellowstone National Park, we used pairs of collared wolves living in the same pack and the double-count method to estimate the probability of attendance (PA) for an individual wolf at a carcass. PA quantifies an important aspect of social foraging behavior (i.e., the cohesiveness of foraging). We used PA to estimate summer kill rates for packs containing GPS-collared wolves between 2004 and 2009. Estimated rates of daily prey acquisition (edible biomass per wolf) decreased from 8.4±0.9 kg (mean ± SE) in May to 4.1±0.4 kg in July. Failure to account for PA would have resulted in underestimating kill rate by 32%. PA was 0.72±0.05 for large ungulate prey and 0.46±0.04 for small ungulate prey. To assess seasonal differences in social foraging behavior, we also evaluated PA during winter for VHF-collared wolves between 1997 and 2009. During winter, PA was 0.95±0.01. PA was not influenced by prey size but was influenced by wolf age and pack size.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results demonstrate that seasonal patterns in the foraging behavior of social carnivores have important implications for understanding their social behavior and estimating kill rates. Synthesizing our findings with previous insights suggests that there is important seasonal variation in how and why social carnivores live in groups. Our findings are also important for applications of GPS collars to estimate kill rates. Specifically, because the factors affecting the PA of social carnivores likely differ between seasons, kill rates estimated through GPS collars should account for seasonal differences in social foraging behavior.     

Statistical Methods for Identifying Wolf Kill Sites Using Global Positioning System Locations

Abstract: Accurate estimates of kill rates remain a key limitation to addressing many predator—prey questions. Past approaches for identifying kill sites of large predators, such as wolves (Canis lupus), have been limited primarily to areas with abundant winter snowfall and have required intensive ground-tracking or aerial monitoring. More recently, attempts have been made to identify clusters of locations obtained using Global Positioning System (GPS) collars on predators to identify kill sites. However, because decision rules used in determining clusters have not been consistent across studies, results are not necessarily comparable. We illustrate a space—time clustering approach to statistically define clusters of wolf GPS locations that might be wolf kill sites, and we then use binary and multinomial logistic regression to model the probability of a cluster being a non—kill site, kill site of small-bodied prey species, or kill site of a large-bodied prey species. We evaluated our approach using field visits of kills and assessed the accuracy of the models using an independent dataset. The cluster-scan approach identified 42–100% of wolf-killed prey, and top logistic regression models correctly classified 100% of kills of large-bodied prey species, but 40% of small-bodied prey species were classified as nonkills. Although knowledge of prey distribution and vulnerability may help refine this approach, identifying small-bodied prey species will likely remain problematic without intensive field efforts. We recommend that our approach be utilized with the understanding that variation in prey body size and handling time by wolves will likely have implications for the success of both the cluster scan and logistic regression components of the technique. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):798–807; 2008)     

Space–time clusters for early detection of grizzly bear predation

Accurate detection and classification of predation events is important to determine predation and consumption rates by predators. However, obtaining this information for large predators is constrained by the speed at which carcasses disappear and the cost of field data collection. To accurately detect predation events, researchers have used GPS collar technology combined with targeted site visits. However, kill sites are often investigated well after the predation event due to limited data retrieval options on GPS collars (VHF or UHF downloading) and to ensure crew safety when working with large predators. This can lead to missing information from small‐prey (including young ungulates) kill sites due to scavenging and general site deterioration (e.g., vegetation growth). We used a space–time permutation scan statistic (STPSS) clustering method (SaTScan) to detect predation events of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) fitted with satellite transmitting GPS collars. We used generalized linear mixed models to verify predation events and the size of carcasses using spatiotemporal characteristics as predictors. STPSS uses a probability model to compare expected cluster size (space and time) with the observed size. We applied this method retrospectively to data from 2006 to 2007 to compare our method to random GPS site selection. In 2013–2014, we applied our detection method to visit sites one week after their occupation. Both datasets were collected in the same study area. Our approach detected 23 of 27 predation sites verified by visiting 464 random grizzly bear locations in 2006–2007, 187 of which were within space–time clusters and 277 outside. Predation site detection increased by 2.75 times (54 predation events of 335 visited clusters) using 2013–2014 data. Our GLMMs showed that cluster size and duration predicted predation events and carcass size with high sensitivity (0.72 and 0.94, respectively). Coupling GPS satellite technology with clusters using a program based on space–time probability models allows for prompt visits to predation sites. This enables accurate identification of the carcass size and increases fieldwork efficiency in predation studies.     

Evidence for top predator control of a grazing ecosystem

The importance of top predators in controlling ecological processes in large, intact ecosystems is unclear. In grasslands that support abundant ungulates, top–down control by predators may be particularly important, because of the tight biogeochemical linkages of ungulate prey with plants and soil microbes. Here, I examined the effects of the recent reintroduction of the gray wolf Canis lupus on ecosystem processes in Yellowstone National Park, where herds of grazing ungulates previously have been shown to stimulate several processes, including soil net nitrogen (N) mineralization. Rates of ungulate grazing intensity and soil net N mineralization were compared before and after wolf reintroduction in grasslands ranging five‐fold in aboveground production. Grazing intensity and grassland net N mineralization declined after wolf reintroduction, a likely partial function of fewer ungulates; wolf predation has been one of several factors implicated in causing the decline in Yellowstone ungulates. In addition, the spatial pattern of grazing and net N mineralization changed after reintroduction. A shift in the spatial patterns of grazer‐associated processes is consistent with a growing body of work indicating that wolves have changed habitat use patterns of ungulates in Yellowstone National Park. These findings suggest widespread wolf effects on ungulate prey, plants, and microbial activity that have spatially reorganized grassland energy and nutrient dynamics in Yellowstone Park.     

Spatial Partitioning of Predation Risk in a Multiple Predator-Multiple Prey System

ABSTRACT Minimizing risk of predation from multiple predators can be difficult, particularly when the risk effects of one predator species may influence vulnerability to a second predator species. We decomposed spatial risk of predation in a 2-predator, 2-prey system into relative risk of encounter and, given an encounter, conditional relative risk of being killed. Then, we generated spatially explicit functions of total risk of predation for each prey species (elk [Cervus elaphus] and mule deer [Odocoileus hemionus]) by combining risks of encounter and kill. For both mule deer and elk, topographic and vegetation type effects, along with resource selection by their primary predator (cougars [Puma concolor] and wolves [Canis lupus], respectively), strongly influenced risk of encounter. Following an encounter, topographic and vegetation type effects altered the risk of predation for both ungulates. For mule deer, risk of direct predation was largely a function of cougar resource selection. However, for elk, risk of direct predation was not only a function of wolf occurrence, but also of habitat attributes that increased elk vulnerability to predation following an encounter. Our analysis of stage-based (i.e., encounter and kill) predation indicates that the risk effect of elk shifting to structurally complex habitat may ameliorate risk of direct predation by wolves but exacerbate risk of direct predation by cougars. Information on spatiotemporal patterns of predation will be become increasingly important as state agencies in the western United States face pressure to integrate predator and prey management.     

Building a mechanistic understanding of predation with GPS-based movement data

Quantifying kill rates and sources of variation in kill rates remains an important challenge in linking predators to their prey. We address current approaches to using global positioning system (GPS)-based movement data for quantifying key predation components of large carnivores. We review approaches to identify kill sites from GPS movement data as a means to estimate kill rates and address advantages of using GPS-based data over past approaches. Despite considerable progress, modelling the probability that a cluster of GPS points is a kill site is no substitute for field visits, but can guide our field efforts. Once kill sites are identified, time spent at a kill site (handling time) and time between kills (killing time) can be determined. We show how statistical models can be used to investigate the influence of factors such as animal characteristics (e.g. age, sex, group size) and landscape features on either handling time or killing efficiency. If we know the prey densities along paths to a kill, we can quantify the ‘attack success’ parameter in functional response models directly. Problems remain in incorporating the behavioural complexity derived from GPS movement paths into functional response models, particularly in multi-prey systems, but we believe that exploring the details of GPS movement data has put us on the right path.