内蒙古地区蝗虫发生与大气环流特征的关系

探讨蝗灾发生程度与大气环流的关系是建立蝗灾天气学预测模型的基础.本文运用统计学理论研究了内蒙古地区蝗虫发生面积与大气环流特征量的关系.结果表明:头年7月西太平洋副高脊线位置南移有利于成虫生长和产卵;当年2月北非大西洋北美副高北界偏北、当年1月太平洋区极涡偏强影响虫卵越冬和夏季生长,与当年蝗虫发生面积呈负相关;当年5月北半球极涡中心位置移至60°-90° W时,灾害等级均为3级以上.     

全国大豆食心虫发生面积与大气环流、海温的关系及其长期预测预报

对1952-2001年中国大豆食心虫发生面积与食心虫发生前一年1月至当年4月中74个环流特征量及286个网格点海温逐月及不同组合时段距平值进行相关分析,筛选出了大气环流和海温因子,通过逐步回归,分别建立了中国大豆食心虫发生面积的大气环流和海温预报模型,并对模型进行了拟合和延伸预报.结果表明:模型的拟合和延伸预报效果均较好,2002-2004年大气环流模型延伸预报平均准确率达88%,海温模型延伸预报准确率达86%.     

中国稻飞虱发生的大气环流指示指标

根据1971—2010年稻飞虱发生面积率和发生程度资料,构建综合反映稻飞虱发生为害的因子,定义为稻飞虱发生指数。基于因子膨化方法对74项大气环流特征量进行合理扩充,采用相关分析等方法研究当年2月初、4月初、6月初对全国稻飞虱发生面积率等级、发生程度等级、发生指数等级具有指示意义的大气环流因子的筛选及其相应等级指标的构建。结果表明:影响稻飞虱发生面积率等级的指示因子为西太平洋副高面积指数、南海副高脊线、北半球极涡强度指数、印缅槽,影响稻飞虱发生程度等级的指示因子为太平洋副高北界、亚洲纬向环流指数、东亚槽强度、太阳黑子数,影响稻飞虱发生指数等级的指示因子为北半球副高强度指数、北半球极涡强度指数、大西洋欧洲环流型指数、西藏高原指数。不同指示因子的量值在稻飞虱轻、偏轻、偏重和重发生时差异性显著;建立的稻飞虱发生等级的大气环流指示指标,经历史发生情况检验,对稻飞虱发生等级具有很好的指示效应,可为稻飞虱中长期预测预报提供科学依据。     

大气环流特征量的水稻白背飞虱发生程度预报模型的研究

根据500hPa大气环流特征量能表征天气形势和控制天气条件的这一特性,利用线性及单调曲线相关与最优化因子相关两种技术对环流特征量因子进行普查、对比分析,发现白背飞虱虫情指标与环流因子之间关系不仅是线性及几种单调曲线的关系,而且还存在非线性、非单调的单峰(谷)型的相关关系,并从中挑选一批与水稻白背飞虱虫情指标相关极其显著、稳定性强、因子间相互独立、可靠的大气环流特征量作为预报因子,在此基础上,建立了江苏省水稻白背飞虱虫情指标预报的环流模型,且还证实了模型中的环流因子与影响白背飞虱迁入、发生发展的气象条件呈显著相关关系,为预报白背飞虱发生程度提供了新的长期因子和新途径。     

基于大尺度因子的小麦白粉病长期预测模型

根据1971—2008年全国小麦白粉病发生面积资料、1970—2008年大气环流特征量逐月资料及1970—2008年太平洋海温逐月资料,通过因子膨化、空间拓扑分析组合大气环流、海温因子,采用最优化处理、相关分析、相关稳定性检验、因子独立性检验等方法,筛选对小麦白粉病影响稳定、显著、独立的大气、海温因子,分别构建基于大气环流及太平洋海温的全国小麦白粉病发生面积率预报预测模型。利用2009—2010年资料对模型进行预测检验,经回代及预测检验,大气环流模型回代检验等级正确率为81.6%,2009、2010年等级预测正确率为100%,模型总体评价正确率为82.5%。太平洋海温模型回代检验等级正确率为78.95%,2009、2010年预测检验正确率为100%,模型总体评价正确率为80%。大气环流模型较太平洋海温模型总体评价准确率略高。     

黑龙江大兴安岭地区森林害虫发生面积与气象因子的关系

对黑龙江大兴安岭地区6个气象台站的气象资料进行整理和分析,从中筛选出影响虫害发生面积的7个气象因子,并分别对其做相关分析,研究了气象因子对种群数量的影响,模拟虫害发生面积预测方程.结果表明:与虫害发生面积密切相关的因子有年积温(≥10℃)、年降水量和干燥度;虫害发生面积同三者的Pearson相关系数分别为0.701、-0.814和0.937;通过分析极端气候现象对虫害面积的影响,发现春季阴雨和虫害面积存在显著的正相关关系,冬冻和春寒对虫害发生面积并没有直接的影响.     

基于BP人工神经网络方法的广西稻飞虱发生等级预测

利用广西45个农业病虫测报站1988—2012年稻飞虱发生等级及1987—2012年气象要素、大气环流特征量等资料,采用模糊聚类分析、BP人工神经网络等方法,将广西早稻稻飞虱发生等级分为桂东、桂西南和桂西北3个区域,分别对各区域稻飞虱发生等级进行预测。结果表明:各区域稻飞虱发生等级与气象要素及大气环流密切相关,冬春季气温高、雨日多、湿度大、光照少等因素均利于稻飞虱发生,副热带高压、印缅槽和西南气流等均对稻飞虱发生等级有影响;各区域稻飞虱发生等级序列从冬春季气象要素、大气环流特征量中选择初选预测因子,对初选预测因子作EOF展开构造综合预测因子,分区建立预测模型并进行交叉检验表明,3个区域的人工神经网络模型平均拟合绝对误差比逐步回归模型分别小0.07、0.1和0.02,2011、2012年独立样本预测试验表明,人工神经网络模型和逐步回归模型的实际预测绝对误差为0.42和0.5,可见稻飞虱发生等级的BP人工神经网络预测模型比传统逐步回归模型有更好的拟合和预测效果,为稻飞虱与气象要素之间的非线性关系研究开拓新的思路。     

麦双尾蚜发生程度与气象因素的关系

利用新疆塔城1989～1996年8年的麦双尾蚜Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko)发生程度与16个气象因子进行相关性分析,通过逐步回归筛选因子,确定麦双尾蚜发生量预测模型：logY=84100-0.1033RH₅-0.0253R₅,其中：Y为麦双尾蚜发生百株蚜量;RH₅为5月份的相对湿度(%);R₅为5月份的降水量(mm)。应用该模型预测1997～1998年麦双尾蚜的发生程度,与实际发生情况基本吻合。     

新疆典型蝗虫适生区分布预测

新疆草原面积广阔,农牧业地位突出,蝗灾对当地经济、生态威胁很大,近年新疆极端天气日渐频发,蝗灾监测与防治任务艰巨。以意大利蝗、西伯利亚蝗和亚洲飞蝗为代表的蝗虫数据为基础,综合考虑对蝗虫各生命周期有重要影响的环境因素,运用BIOCLIM模型、领域模型（DOMAIN）、马氏距离模型（MAHAL）、广义线性模型（GLM）、随机森林模型（RF）、提升回归树模型（BRT）、支持向量机模型（SVM）、最大熵模型（MaxEnt）等八种经典物种分布模型及集成模型对新疆典型蝗虫适生区展开了预测。结果表明：（1）不同模型对新疆典型蝗虫适生区预测存在差异,其中DOMAIN最差（曲线下面积（AUC）=0.688,真实技巧统计（TSS）=0.301）,而提升回归树（BRT）最佳（AUC=0.920,TSS=0.910）,基于BRT、SVM和MaxEnt 3个集成模型预测的新疆蝗虫适生区可靠性更高;（2）新疆典型蝗虫不同等级适生区面积约56.844万km²,占新疆总面积的36%,其中高适生区面积16.568万km²;（3）新疆典型蝗虫适生区主要集中于北疆阿勒泰、塔城地区,此外东部哈密地区及南疆绿洲边缘地带亦有分布。研究可为新疆草原工作部门推进蝗虫监测防治工作提供支持。     

黑河上游天然草地蝗虫密度与地形关系的GAM分析

地形差异性导致的环境异质性是小尺度范围内生物空间格局形成与维持的重要机制之一,也是导致物种密度分布差异的前提条件.借助GIS和S-Plus软件,利用广义可加模型(GAM)于2009年7-8月对影响蝗虫分布的地形因子进行了研究,在定量分析黑河上游祁连山区北坡地形特征的基础上,研究了该区域蝗虫密度与地形之间的关系.结果表明:蝗虫密度受地形因子影响的顺序为坡向＞海拔＞坡度＞坡位＞平面曲率＞剖面曲率;蝗虫密度在坡位、平面曲率以及剖面曲率各个梯度上的分布比较均衡,在坡向和坡度梯度上呈二次抛物线分布,在海拔梯度上呈“S”曲线分布;从分布区域上来看,蝗虫主要分布在海拔2550～2650 m区域,坡向上则主要集中在西北坡和西坡,与实际观测情况一致.蝗虫密度与地形因子之间的相互关系及其分布状态反映了地形特征对水热等条件的影响,使蝗虫分布格局呈现多元化和以及破碎化状态.     

Atmospheric forcing on chlorophyll concentration in the Mediterranean

Recent research suggests the coupling of climatic fluctuations and changes in biological indices that describe species richness, abundance and spatiotemporal distribution. In this study, large-scale modes of atmospheric variability over the northern hemisphere are associated with chlorophyll-a concentration in the Mediterranean. Sea level atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wind speed and precipitation are used to account for climatic and local weather effects, whereas sea surface temperature, sea surface height and salinity are employed to describe oceanic variation. Canonical Correlation Analysis was applied to relate chlorophyll concentration to the above-mentioned environmental variables, while correlation maps were also built to distinguish between localized and distant effects. Spectral analysis was used to identify common temporal cycles between chlorophyll concentration and each environmental variable. These cycles could be interpreted as mechanistic links between chlorophyll and large-scale atmospheric variability. Known teleconnection patterns such as the East Atlantic/Western Russian pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Polar/Eurasian pattern, the East Pacific/North Pacific, the East Atlantic jet and the Mediterranean Oscillation are found to be the most important modes of atmospheric variability related to chlorophyll-a concentration and distribution. The areas that are mostly affected are near the coasts and areas of upwelling and gyre formation. The results also suggest that this influence may arise either through local effects of teleconnection patterns on oceanic features or large-scale changes superimposed onto the general circulation in the Mediterranean. Guest editor: V. D. Valavanis Essential Fish Habitat Mapping in the Mediterranean     

北亚热带马尾松年轮宽度与NDVI的关系

北亚热带地处暖温带向亚热带的过渡地区,对环境变化较为敏感。因此,研究北亚热带马尾松年轮宽度与森林NDVI的关系对于揭示陆地生态系统对全球气候变化的响应具有重要意义。以马尾松自然分布北界的南郑县和河南省鸡公山自然保护区为研究地点,利用北亚热带马尾松年轮宽度指数和1982-2006年逐月NOAA/AVHRR的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据及气候数据,在分析年轮宽度及NDVI与气候因子关系的基础上,重点讨论了北亚热带马尾松径向生长与NDVI之间的关系。结果表明:北亚热带NDVI受水热条件的共同控制,其中与月均温相关性较强,且以正相关为主,与月降水量和干旱度指数多负相关;马尾松的径向生长与上一生长季的温度呈正相关,降水和干旱度指数为负相关,当年生长季内的温度和降水以促进作用为主,而与干旱度指数的关系在两地区内相反;南郑县和鸡公山地区年轮宽度与NDVI年值之间关系均不显著(P>0.05)。单月来讲,南郑县3、4、12月NDVI值与年表显著相关,鸡公山地区9月份的NDVI值与差值年表RES相关性最大;南郑县树木生长受温度影响最大,而鸡公山地区受温度和降水的综合作用。因此,在北亚热带地区,长时间序列的年轮宽度数据并不能很好反应NDVI的长期变化,利用树轮宽度指数来重建北亚热带地区NDVI需要进一步研究。     

Environmental drivers of the anchovy/sardine complex in the Eastern Mediterranean

The anchovy/sardine complex is an important fishery resource in some of the largest upwelling systems in the world. Synchronous, but out of phase, fluctuations of the two species in distant parts of the oceans have prompted a number of studies dedicated to determining the phenomena, atmospheric and oceanic, responsible for the observed synchronicity and the biological mechanisms behind the population changes of the two species. Anchovy and sardine are of high commercial value for the fishing sector in Greece; this study investigates the impact of large-scale climatic indices on the anchovy/sardine complex in the Greek seas using fishery catches as a proxy for fish productivity. Time series of catches for both species were analysed for relationships with teleconnection indices and local environmental variability. The connection between the teleconnection indices and local weather/oceanic variation was also examined in an effort to describe physical mechanisms that link large-scale atmospheric patterns with anchovy and sardine. The West African Summer Monsoon, East Atlantic Jet and Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern exhibit coherent relationships with the catches of the two species. The first two aforementioned patterns are prominent atmospheric modes of variability during the summer months when sardine is spawning and anchovy juveniles are growing. PNA is related with El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) appears as a significant link between atmospheric and biological variability either because higher temperatures seem to be favouring sardine growth or because lower temperatures, characteristic of productivity-enhancing oceanic features, exert a positive influence on both species. However at a local scale, other parameters such as wind and mesoscale circulation describe air–sea variability affecting the anchovy/sardine complex. These relationships are non-linear and in agreement with results of previous studies stressing the importance of optimal environmental windows. The results also show differences in the response of the two species to environmental forcing and possible interactions between the two species. The nature of these phenomena, e.g., if the species interactions are direct through competition or indirect through the food web, remains to be examined.     

Late quaternary climatic changes in Australia and North Africa: A preliminary interpretation

Geological and biological data for the period 0–40,000 B.P. suggest that variations in precipitation and evaporation along the temperate and tropical margins of Australia and North Africa are closely related to variations in the position and strength of the subtropical anticyclones. Such changes in the subtropical anticyclones seem related to changes in the position and wave amplitude of the subtropical westerly jet stream.A dynamic interpretation of the inferred palaeoclimates suggests that important additional factors were the distribution of surface temperature anomalies over Siberia and the Sahara at 30,000 B.P.; the location of North Pacific and North American surface temperature anomalies at 24,000 B.P.; compression of the westerlies over Tasmania during 20,000–15,000 B.P.; breakdown of the summer monsoon during 17,000–12,000 B.P.; and a possible change in the slope and nature of the Intertropical Convergence during 11,000–7,000 B.P.Major environmental changes associated with the above influences were heavy rainfall, high lake levels, and increased fluvial activity in southern Australia and along both margins of the Sahara between 40,000 and 20,000 B.P.; low lake levels in the Afar at 30,000 B.P.; intertropical aridity and dune-building along the tropical margins of the Sahara and Australia, and desiccation in semi-arid New South Wales during the interval 17,000–12,000 B.P.; and very high lake levels and increased precipitation in the Sahel and in northern and southern Australia from 11,000 B.P. to 5,000 B.P.The past and present role of the desert anticyclones in controlling the start and the close of the arid phases is demonstrated, as is the correlation between Southern Hemisphere pressure systems and Saharan rainfall, and between Northern Hemisphere circulation changes and Australian rainfall. The subtropical anticyclones may act as buffers when the thermal balance between the two hemispheres is upset by an excess of surface ice in any one hemisphere, and this influences the climate well beyond the deserts.     

Phytoplankton decline in the eastern North Pacific transition zone associated with atmospheric blocking

Global climate change can significantly influence oceanic phytoplankton dynamics, and thus biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs. However, associative explanations based on the correlation between chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl‐a) and climatic indices is inadequate to describe the mechanism of the connection between climate change, large‐scale atmospheric dynamics, and phytoplankton variability. Here, by analyzing multiple satellite observations of Chl‐a and atmospheric conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets, we show that high‐latitude atmospheric blocking events over Alaska are the primary drivers of the recent decline of Chl‐a in the eastern North Pacific transition zone. These blocking events were associated with the persistence of large‐scale atmosphere pressure fields that decreased westerly winds and southward Ekman transport over the subarctic ocean gyre. Reduced southward Ekman transport leads to reductions in nutrient availability to phytoplankton in the transition zone. The findings describe a previously unidentified climatic factor that contributed to the recent decline of phytoplankton in this region and propose a mechanism of the top‐down teleconnection between the high‐latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies and the subtropical oceanic primary productivity. The results also highlight the importance of understanding teleconnection among atmosphere–ocean interactions as a means to anticipate future climate change impacts on oceanic primary production.     

Acquisition of nonspecific Bartonella strains by the northern grasshopper mouse (Onychomys leucogaster)

Rodent-associated Bartonella species are generally host-specific parasites in North America. Here evidence that Bartonella species can 'jump' between host species is presented. Northern grasshopper mice and other rodents were trapped in the western USA. A study of Bartonella infection in grasshopper mice demonstrated a high prevalence that varied from 25% to 90% by location. Bartonella infection was detected in other rodent species with a high prevalence as well. Sequence analyses of gltA identified 29 Bartonella variants in rodents, 10 of which were obtained from grasshopper mice. Among these 10, only six variants were specific to grasshopper mice, whereas four were identical to variants specific to deer mice or 13-lined ground squirrels. Fourteen of 90 sequenced isolates obtained from grasshopper mice were strains found more commonly in other rodent species and were apparently acquired from these animals. The ecological behavior of grasshopper mice may explain the occurrence of Bartonella strains in occasional hosts. The observed rate at which Bartonella jumps from a donor host species to the grasshopper mouse was directly proportional to a metric of donor host density and to the prevalence of Bartonella in the donor host, and inversely proportional to the same parameters for the grasshopper mouse.     

Historical biogeography of Androcymbium Willd. (Colchicaceae) in Africa: evidence from cpDNA RFLPs

The cpDNA restriction variation in 39 populations representing a geographical sampling of 18 species of Androcymbium in southwestern and northern Africa was examined to assess the historical biogeography of the genus. The cpDNA phylogeny indicates that the disjunction between South and North Africa is best explained by the dispersal of southern African ancestors into North Africa. Divergence time estimates suggest that the geographic range of the genus may have extended considerably north (perhaps to Tanzania and Kenya) prior to the global desiccation of Africa in the Miocene. Further expansion of the genus northward was probably stalled until climatic changes in the late Miocene brought about the gradual replacement of a subtropical woodland savanna with the arid landscape that gave rise to the Sahara. Aridification of the northern quarter of the continent provided the ecological conditions for fostering the expansion of Androcymbium along the Mediterranean fringe (probably east to west) and its introduction into the Canary Islands. Unlike their South African congeners, the northern species have experienced expansions, fragmentations, and local extinctions in response to the severe climatic shifts in this area during the Pliocene-Pleistocene. According to our divergence time estimates, the arid track may have already existed as a continuous area connecting southern and northern Africa in the late Miocene.     

Three times out of Asia Minor: the phylogeography of Arabis alpina L. (Brassicaceae)

Arabis alpina is a characteristic plant in arctic-alpine habitats and serves as a classical example to demonstrate biology, ecology and biogeography of arctic-alpine disjuncts. It has a wider distribution than most other arctic-alpine plants, covering all European mountain systems, the Canary Islands, North Africa, the high mountains of East Africa and Ethiopia, the Arabian Peninsula and mountain ranges of Central Asia in Iran and Iraq. Additionally it is found in the northern amphi-Atlantic area including northeastern North America, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard and northwestern Europe. We used markers from the nuclear (internal transcribed spacer of ribosomal DNA) and chloroplast genome (trnL-F region) to reconstruct its phylogeographic history. Both markers revealed clear phylogeographic structure. We suggest that A. alpina originated in Asia Minor less than 2 million years ago based on synonymous mutation rates of different genes (plastidic matK, nuclear adh and chs). From the Asian ancestral stock one group migrated via the Arabian Peninsula to the East African high mountains. A second group gave rise to all European and northern populations, and also served as source for the northwest African populations. A third group, which is still centred in Asia, migrated independently southwards and came into secondary contact with the East African lineage in Ethiopia, resulting in high genetic diversity in this area. In the Mediterranean regions, the genetic diversity was relatively high with numerous unique haplotypes, but almost without geographic structure. In contrast, the populations in the northern amphi-Atlantic area were extremely depauperate, suggesting very recent (postglacial) expansion into this vast area from the south.     

Grasshopper Herbivory Affects Native Plant Diversity and Abundance in a Grassland Dominated by the Exotic Grass Agropyron cristatum

The indirect effects of native generalist insect herbivores on interactions between exotic and native grassland plants have received limited attention. Crested wheatgrass ( Agropyron cristatum ) is the most common exotic rangeland grass in western North America. Crested wheatgrass communities are resistant to colonization by native plant species and have strong competitive effects on native species, imposing problems for the restoration of native grasslands. Grasshoppers are generalist herbivores that are often abundant in Crested wheatgrass–dominated sites in the northern Great Plains. We conducted two experiments in a Crested wheatgrass–dominated grassland in western North Dakota to test the hypothesis that grasshopper herbivory influences local Crested wheatgrass community composition by impeding native seedlings. Grasshopper herbivory negatively affected the species richness, abundance, and Shannon diversity of native plants in 3 of 4 years. Although additional research is needed to determine if grasshoppers actively select native plants, the effects of grasshopper herbivory may be an important consideration in the restoration of Crested wheatgrass areas. Our findings illustrate the importance of understanding the impact of native generalist invertebrate herbivores on the relationships between exotic and native plants.     

Connections between climatic variables and the growth and needle dynamics of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Estonia and Lapland

The relationships between climatic variables and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growth and needle dynamics were studied in three stands in Estonia and in four stands located near the northern timberline in Lapland. The trees sampled in Estonia had low correlations with the analysed climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation and indices of atmospheric circulation). Moreover, the weak cross-correlation of the time-series of the Estonian sample trees indicated that Scots pine is affected mainly by local factors in that region. In Lapland, however, height increment and needle production correlated strongly among trees within a stand (mean r=0.45 and 0.46, respectively) and between stands (r=0.32 and 0.37). Radial increment also showed a high inter-correlation among the trees within a stand in Lapland (r=0.45). Both height increment and needle production were strongly influenced by the temperature regime of the previous summer in Lapland (mean r=0.64 and 0.64, respectively). Radial increment was correlated with the mean July temperature of the current year (mean r=0.29). The correlations between the indices of atmospheric circulation and tree attributes were weak, while the strongest correlation was between the Ponta Delgada NAO index (PD–NAO) and height increment and needle production in Lapland. Height increment, needle production and radial increment have increased since the 1990s in the trees growing in Lapland. This may indicate a positive effect of climate warming on tree growth in Lapland. In Estonia, where climatic conditions do not limit tree growth, the climate warming seems not to directly influence the growth and needle dynamics of Scots pine.