Effects of experimental climate warming and associated soil drought on the competition between three highly invasive West European alien plant species and native counterparts

It is widely suggested that climate warming will increase the impact of biological invasions, yet, to date studies on the combined effect of these two global changes are scarce. Here, we study how climate warming and associated soil drought affect the competition between native and invasive alien plant species. Three highly invasive alien plant species in West Europe, each with a native competitor, were grown either together or in isolation at ambient and at elevated air temperature (+3 °C) in climate-controlled chambers. Equal amounts of water were added to all communities. Soil drought observed in the heated chambers did not induce severe stress in the plants. In two species pairs, Fallopia japonica (Houtt.)–Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. and Solidago gigantea Ait.–Epilobium hirsutum L. (alien invasive–native), the native species dominated in mixture, while the alien invasive species dominated in the third pair Senecio inaequidens DC.–Plantago lanceolata L. Warming did not modify the competitive balance in any of these pairs, in spite of enhancing the aboveground biomass of S. inaequidens and P. lanceolata and the greater photosynthetic rates in S. inaequidens. The results of this study cannot be extrapolated to all invasive or exotic species but may represent the possible future of three principle invaders and some of their key native counterparts. Future experiments are needed to identify response patterns of alien plants to climate warming more in general.     

The invasion of plant communities following extreme weather events under ambient and elevated temperature

Although the problem of plant invasions is expected to increase with climate change, there is as yet little experimental evidence, in particular, for the effects of extreme weather events. We established communities of European meadow species, which were subjected to warming and extreme event (drought and deluge) treatments in a factorial design at an experimental garden in Zurich, Switzerland. Phylogenetically matched pairs of native and alien species (Bromus erectus, B. inermis, Trifolium pratense, T. hybridum, Lactuca serriola, and Conyza canadensis) were introduced into the communities to test if invader performance is favored by warming and extreme events, and if alien invaders perform better than native colonizers. With a warming of on average 0.3?°C, a higher cover of native plant communities was observed, while drought decreased cover in the short-term and lowered biomass. Germination, survival, and growth of the introduced species were lower under elevated temperature. Survival of all pairs and growth of Trifolium was greater in drought pots, while deluge had no effect. While the alien species showed a faster rate of increase in the number of leaves, mortality of alien species was greater than of native species. Overall, the performance of the focal species varied much more among taxonomic groups than native/alien provenances. The results suggest that with climate change, different types of extreme events will differ in the severity of their effects on native plant communities. Meanwhile, the effects of climate change on plant invasions are more likely to operate indirectly through the impacts on native vegetation.     

入侵与本地植物对气候变暖和氮沉降交互效应的动态响应

入侵与本地植物对气候变暖和氮沉降交互效应的动态响应 在全球气候变暖背景下,对入侵物种扩张的预测往往并未考虑到同时出现的氮沉降变化。因此,气候变暖和氮沉降的复杂交互将如何改变入侵物种和本地物种的生长动态尚需进一步探索。在此,本研究假设氮沉降和温度的同时增加可能对入侵植物的生长促进效应大于本地植物。本研究在模拟气候变暖、氮沉降及其交互处理下,对入侵植物加拿大一枝黄花(Solidago canadensis L.)及其本地共存物种艾草(Artemisia argyi Levl. et Van)的生长响应进行温室对照试验。结果表明：由于氮沉降对物种生长的显著促进效应,温度升高和氮沉降的交互作用导致入侵物种和本地物种的生长适应性显著提高,即温氮交互可能使区域微生境更加有利于植物生长。然而,在生物量、高度和直径等生态适应特征方面,入侵物种加拿大一枝黄花的相对增加幅度显著低于本地物种艾草,这表明入侵物种加拿大一枝黄花相对于本地物种艾草的生长优势会在未来气候变暖与氮沉降持续增强的背景下逐渐减弱。因此,纳入氮沉降因素可能会缓解入侵物种加拿大一枝黄花在气候变暖条件下的入侵扩张。     

Alien and native plant life‐forms respond differently to human and climate pressures

Aim To investigate whether differences in the elevational trend in native and alien species richness were dependent on climate or human pressures. Specifically we tested whether life‐form and/or alien/native status modifies the response of plant species richness to human population and temperature along: (1) a complete elevational gradient, and (2) within separate elevational bands that, by keeping temperature within a narrow range, elucidate the effects of human pressures more clearly. Location Two provinces (c. 7507 km²) on the southern border of the European Alps (Italy), subdivided into 240 contiguous sampling cells (c. 35.7 km²). Methods We used an extensive dataset on alien and native species richness across an elevation gradient (20–2900 m a.s.l.). Richness of natives and naturalized aliens were separately related to temperature, human population and Raunkiaer life‐form using general linear mixed models. Life‐form describes different plant strategies for survival during seasons with adverse cold/arid conditions. Results The relationship between species richness and temperature for natives was strongly dependent on life‐form, while aliens showed a consistent positive trend. Similar trends across alien and native life‐forms were found for the relationship between species richness and human population along the whole gradient and within separate elevational bands. Main conclusions The absence of life‐form‐dependent responses amongst aliens supports the hypothesis that the distribution of alien plant species richness was more related to propagule pressure and availability of novel niches created by human activities than to climatic filtering. While climate change will potentially contribute to relaxing species thermal constraints, the response of alien species to future warming will also be contingent on changes in anthropogenic pressures.     

Herbivory and nutrient limitation protect warming tundra from lowland species’ invasion and diversity loss

Herbivory and nutrient limitation can increase the resistance of temperature‐limited systems to invasions under climate warming. We imported seeds of lowland species to tundra under factorial treatments of warming, fertilization, herbivore exclusion and biomass removal. We show that warming alone had little impact on lowland species, while exclusion of native herbivores and relaxation of nutrient limitation greatly benefitted them. In contrast, warming alone benefitted resident tundra species and increased species richness; however, these were canceled by negative effects of herbivore exclusion and fertilization. Dominance of lowland species was associated with low cover of tundra species and resulted in decreased species richness. Our results highlight the critical role of biotic and abiotic filters unrelated to temperature in protecting tundra under warmer climate. While scarcity of soil nutrients and native herbivores act as important agents of resistance to invasions by lowland species, they concurrently promote overall species coexistence. However, when these biotic and abiotic resistances are relaxed, invasion of lowland species can lead to decreased abundance of resident tundra species and diminished diversity.     

Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants?

Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO₂ concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta‐analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above‐mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO₂ enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO₂ enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future.     

Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16–38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T_opt) of photosynthesis and J_max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T_opt of J_max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming.     

Testing the environmental warming responses of Brachyscome daisy species using a common garden approach

As temperatures increase in a warming world, there will be different responses among related plant species, with some species able to increase growth rate under warmer conditions and others less likely. Here, we identify survival and growth parameters in a group of 19 related Australian daisies from the genera Brachyscome and Pembertonia when exposed to higher soil temperature, focusing particularly on species from the alpine environment. We used a common garden approach to measure growth and survival under warming. We tested for the effects of evolutionary history by investigating phylogeny and testing for a phylogenetic signal, and for the effects of ecological history by considering climatic variables associated with species distributions in their native range. Evolutionary history did not have a detectable effect on warming responses. While there was a moderate signal for plant growth in the absence of warming, there was no signal for growth changes in response to warming, despite variability among species to warming that ranged from positive to negative growth responses. There was no strong effect of climate context, as species that showed a positive response to warming did not necessarily originate from hotter environments. In fact, several species from hot environments grew relatively poorly when exposed to higher soil temperature. However, species endemic to alpine areas were less likely to benefit from warming than widespread species. We found a strong phylogenetic signal for climate history, in that closely related species tend to occur in areas with similar annual variability in precipitation. Species differences in response to soil warming were variable and difficult to link to climate conditions except for the poor response of alpine endemics. There was no significant association between survival and warming responses of species. However, as some species showed weak growth responses, this may reduce their fitness into the future.     

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non‐native species on community responses to climate change

Climate change, land‐use change and introductions of non‐native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm‐associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non‐native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm‐associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool‐associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non‐native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community‐level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non‐natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate‐driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.     

Climate change might increase the invasion potential of the alien C4 grass Setaria parviflora (Poaceae) in the Mediterranean Basin

Aim Current climate change is supposed to be beneficial to many biological invaders, especially to C4 alien plants. While several experiments have been dedicated to measuring alien plants’ response to increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration, very few studies have been undertaken to measure the response of alien plants to warming. This study was aimed to test experimentally whether the predicted climate change in the Mediterranean Basin could be beneficial to the alien C4 grass Setaria parviflora (Poir.) Kerguélen. Location Three populations of S. parviflora from Corsica, southern France, were grown in Montpellier, southern France. Methods  The C4 alien grass S. parviflora was exposed to artificial climate change conditions for 3 years in open field and in competition with the local native community. We measured the response to artificial warming of +1.5 and +3 °C and artificial drought (?30% precipitation) versus ambient conditions for phenology, biomass and fecundity of S. parviflora. We compared the response of S. parviflora individuals to the response of the local community. Results Artificial warming strongly enhanced the biomass and the fecundity of S. parviflora, while it decreased or did not affect the biomass and fecundity of the local community. The phenology (onset of growth, first spike pollinating and fruit ripeness) of S. parviflora was advanced significantly and explained the changes observed in biomass and fecundity. Main conclusions Here, we report a positive effect of climate change on the growth and fertility of S. parviflora, a C4 alien plant. Our results suggest that climate change predicted for the next decades in the Mediterranean Basin might substantially enhance the performance of S. parviflora, potentially increasing its invasion success.     

Photosynthesis and growth reduction with warming are driven by nonstomatal limitations in a Mediterranean semi‐arid shrub

Whereas warming enhances plant nutrient status and photosynthesis in most terrestrial ecosystems, dryland vegetation is vulnerable to the likely increases in evapotranspiration and reductions in soil moisture caused by elevated temperatures. Any warming‐induced declines in plant primary production and cover in drylands would increase erosion, land degradation, and desertification. We conducted a four‐year manipulative experiment in a semi‐arid Mediterranean ecosystem to evaluate the impacts of a ~2°C warming on the photosynthesis, transpiration, leaf nutrient status, chlorophyll content, isotopic composition, biomass growth, and postsummer survival of the native shrub Helianthemum squamatum. We predicted that warmed plants would show reduced photosynthetic activity and growth, primarily due to the greater stomatal limitation imposed by faster and more severe soil drying under warming. On average, warming reduced net photosynthetic rates by 36% across the study period. Despite this strong response, warming did not affect stomatal conductance and transpiration. The reduction of peak photosynthetic rates with warming was more pronounced in a drought year than in years with near‐average rainfall (75% and 25–40% reductions relative to controls, respectively), with no indications of photosynthetic acclimation to warming through time. Warmed plants had lower leaf N and P contents, δ¹³C, and sparser and smaller leaves than control plants. Warming reduced shoot dry mass production by 31%. However, warmed plants were able to cope with large reductions in net photosynthesis, leaf area, and shoot biomass production without changes in postsummer survival rates. Our findings highlight the key role of nonstomatal factors (biochemical and/or nutritional) in reducing net carbon assimilation rates and growth under warming, which has important implications for projections of plant carbon balance under the warmer and drier climatic scenario predicted for drylands worldwide. Projected climate warming over the coming decades could reduce net primary production by about one‐third in semi‐arid gypsum shrublands dominated by H. squamatum.     

Urban alien plants in temperate oceanic regions of Europe originate from warmer native ranges

When colonizing new areas, alien plant species success can depend strongly on local environmental conditions. Microclimatic barriers might be the reason why some alien plant species thrive in urban areas, while others prefer rural environments. We tested the hypothesis that the climate in the native range is a good predictor of the urbanity of alien species in the invaded range. The relationship between climate in the native range and the percentage of artificially sealed surfaces (urbanity) at the occurrences of 24 emerging alien plant species, in European areas with a temperate climate (termed oceanic Europe) was evaluated. We found that alien species growing in more urban environments originated from warmer or drier native ranges than found in oceanic Europe. These results have strong conservation implications as climate-warming will likely lift climatic barriers that currently constrain numerous alien plant species to cities, boosting the role of cities as points of entry for invasive plants.

     

The temporal structure of the environment may influence range expansions during climate warming

Understanding the processes that influence range expansions during climate warming is paramount for predicting population extirpations and preparing for the arrival of non‐native species. While climate warming occurs over a background of variation due to cyclical processes and irregular events, the temporal structure of the thermal environment is largely ignored when forecasting the dynamics of non‐native species. Ecological theory predicts that high levels of temporal autocorrelation in the environment – relatedness between conditions occurring in close temporal proximity – will favor populations that would otherwise have an average negative growth rate by increasing the duration of favorable environmental periods. Here, we invoke such theory to explain the success of biological invasions and evaluate the hypothesis that sustained periods of high environmental temperature can act synergistically with increases in mean temperature to favor the establishment of non‐native species. We conduct a 60‐day field mesocosm experiment to measure the population dynamics of the non‐native cladoceran zooplankter Daphnia lumholtzi and a native congener Daphnia pulex in ambient temperature environments (control), warmed with recurrent periods of high environmental temperatures (uncorrelated‐warmed), or warmed with sustained periods of high environmental temperatures (autocorrelated‐warmed), such that both warmed treatments exhibited the same mean temperature but exhibited different temporal structures of their thermal environments. Maximum D. lumholtzi densities in the warmed‐autocorrelated treatment were threefold and eightfold higher relative to warmed‐uncorrelated and control treatments, respectively. Yet, D. lumholtzi performed poorly across all experimental treatments relative to D. pulex and were undetectable by the end of the experiment. Using mathematical models, we show that this increase in performance can occur alongside increasing temporal autocorrelation and should occur over a broad range of warming scenarios. These results provide both empirical and theoretical evidence that the temporal structure of the environment can influence the performance of species undergoing range expansions due to climate warming.     

Dispersal response to climate change: scaling down to intraspecific variation

Range shift, a widespread response to climate change, will depend on species abilities to withstand warmer climates. However, these abilities may vary within species and such intraspecific variation can strongly impact species responses to climate change. Facing warmer climates, individuals should disperse according to their thermal optimum with consequences for species range shifts. Here, we studied individual dispersal of a reptile in response to climate warming and preferred temperature using a semi‐natural warming experiment. Individuals with low preferred temperatures dispersed more from warmer semi‐natural habitats, whereas individuals with higher preferred temperatures dispersed more from cooler habitats. These dispersal decisions partly matched phenotype‐dependent survival rates in the different thermal habitats, suggesting adaptive dispersal decisions. This process should result into a spatial segregation of thermal phenotypes along species moving ranges which should facilitate local adaptation to warming climates. We therefore call for range shift models including intraspecific variation in thermal phenotype and dispersal decision.     

Warmer and less variable temperatures favour an accelerated plant phenology of two invasive weeds across sub‐Antarctic Macquarie Island

The great plasticity and diverse reproductive strategies of invasive alien plants are widely assumed to contribute to invasion success, even in extreme areas, often displacing native species. In this context, climate change creates new opportunities for biological invasions. Environmental variability and global warming are two of the climatic processes that may promote invasiveness, since alien species modulate their phenology to succeed under these circumstances. We monitored the phenological development (phenological stage advancement) of the two main invasive alien species: Poa annua L. and Cerastium fontanum Baumg. in the sub‐Antarctic Macquarie Island during the austral summer period along an altitudinal gradient. We found that higher temperatures lead to increased plant height and accelerated phenological development than lower temperatures in P. annua but found no direct evidence of the latter in C. fontanum. However, increased temperature variability negatively affected the phenological development of both species. Interestingly, despite their different reproductive strategy (rapid and impromptu in P. annua, and more synchronic and gradual in C. fontanum), both species prolifically succeeded in producing seeds at all sites showing the great acclimation of these two alien species even in limiting conditions. Since both alien species in Macquarie Island showed larger size and faster phenology at lower altitudes (i.e. milder conditions), this would indicate a great influence of ameliorating abiotic extremes on alien plant invasive capabilities at environmental extremes. Thus, our results warn of the increasing capabilities under climatic warming scenarios for alien plants to reproduce even at such remote ranges. This highlights the need to reinforce calls for special attention to prevent the spread of these kinds of species to other similar sub‐polar areas, where intensive post‐introduction management may be difficult or expensive.     

The invasive alien plant species Solidago gigantea alters ecosystem properties across habitats with differing fertility

Question: Invasive alien plants can affect biomass production and rates of biogeochemical cycling. Do the direction and intensity of such effects depend upon the functional traits of native and alien species and upon the properties of the invaded habitat, with the same alien species having differing impacts in different habitats? Location: Lowlands of Switzerland. Methods: Fourteen grassland and wetland sites invaded by Solidago gigantea and widely differing in biomass production and soil P availability were surveyed. To determine whether the impact of the species was related to site fertility, we compared the invaded and native vegetation in terms of biomass, species composition, plant traits and soil properties. Results: S. gigantea generally increased the above‐ground biomass production of the vegetation and soil C content, while reducing nutrient concentrations in biomass and N availability in the soil. However, it had no significant effect on plant species richness, soil respiration, soil pH and P availability. Leaves of S. gigantea had a greater C content than those of native species; other leaf traits and root phosphatase activity did not differ significantly. Conclusions: Our results suggest that a conservative nutrient‐use strategy allows S. gigantea to invade a broad range of habitats. The observed effects of invasion did not vary according to biomass production of the invaded sites, but some effects did depend on soil P availability, being more pronounced at more P‐rich sites. Thus, the full range of invaded habitats should be considered in studying the potential impact of plant invasions on ecosystem processes.     

Environment and dispersal paths override life strategies and residence time in determining regional patterns of invasion by alien plants

We describe a novel dissimilarity framework to analyze spatial patterns of species diversity and illustrate it with alien plant invasions in Northern Portugal. We used this framework to test the hypothesis that patterns of alien invasive plant species richness and composition are differently affected by differences in climate, land use and landscape connectivity (i.e. Geographic distance as a proxy and vectorial objects that facilitate dispersal such as roads and rivers) between pairs of localities at the regional scale. We further evaluated possible effects of plant life strategies (Grime's C-S-R) and residence time. Each locality consisted of a 1 km² landscape mosaic in which all alien invasive species were recorded by visiting all habitat types.Multi-model inference revealed that dissimilarity in species richness is more influenced by environmental distance (particularly climate), whereas geographic distance (proxies for dispersal limitations) is more important to explain dissimilarity in species composition, with a prevailing role for ecotones and roads. However, only minor differences were found in the responses of the three C-S-R strategies. Some effect of residence time was found, but only for dissimilarity in species richness. Our results also indicated that environmental conditions (e.g. climate conditions) limit the number of alien species invading a given site, but that the presence of dispersal corridors determines the paths of invasion and therefore the pool of species reaching each site. As geographic distances (e.g. ecotones and roads) tend to explain invasion at our regional scale highlights the need to consider the management of alien invasions in the context of integrated landscape planning. Alien species management should include (but not be limited to) the mitigation of dispersal pathways along linear infrastructures. Our results therefore highlight potentially useful applications of the novel multimodel framework to the anticipation and management of plant invasions.     

Higher temperatures enhance the effects of invasive sportfish on mountain zooplankton communities

1. Decades of introductions of exotic sportfish to mountain lakes around the world have impoverished them biologically, and this may be exacerbated by global warming. We assessed the current status of invasive salmonids and native zooplankton communities in 34 naturally fishless lakes along an elevational gradient, which served as an environmental proxy for the expected effects of climate change. 2. Our main goal was to explore how climate‐related variables influence the effects of stocked salmonids on the total biomass, species richness and taxonomic composition of zooplankton. We predicted that warmer conditions would dampen the negative predatory effects of exotic brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) on zooplankton communities because more temperate lakes contain a greater diversity of potentially tolerant species. 3. Instead, we discovered that the persistence of stocked brook trout in the warmer lakes significantly amplified total zooplankton biomass and species richness. In colder and deeper lakes, zooplankton were relatively unaffected by S. fontinalis, which however persisted better in alpine lakes than at lower elevations after stocking practices were halted over two decades ago. Warmer lake conditions and higher concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were significant primary drivers of zooplankton species turnover, both favouring greater species diversity. 4. Our findings of an ecological surprise involving potential synergistic positive effects of climate warming and exotic trout on native zooplankton communities presents a conundrum for managers of certain national mountain parks. Present mandates to eradicate non‐native trout and return the mountain lakes to their naturally fishless state may conflict with efforts to conserve biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate.     

Eco‐evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green‐up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site‐specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.     

Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change

The Northern Hemisphere's boreal forests, particularly the Siberian boreal forest, may have a strong effect on Earth's climate through changes in dominant vegetation and associated regional surface albedo. We show that warmer climate will likely convert Siberia's deciduous larch (Larix spp.) to evergreen conifer forests, and thus decrease regional surface albedo. The dynamic vegetation model, FAREAST, simulates Russian boreal forest composition and was used to explore the feedback between climate change and forest composition at continental, regional, and local scales. FAREAST was used to simulate the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on total and genus‐level biomass at sites across Siberia and the Russian Far East (RFE), and for six high‐ and low‐diversity regions. Model runs with and without European Larch (Larix decidua) included in the available species pool were compared to assess the potential for this species, which is adapted to warmer climate conditions, to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially the shift to evergreen dominance. At the continental scale, when temperature is increased, larch‐dominated sites become vulnerable to early replacement by evergreen conifers. At the regional and local scales, the diverse Amur region of the RFE does not show a strong response to climate change, but the low‐diversity regions in central and southern Siberia have an abrupt vegetation shift from larch‐dominated forest to evergreen‐conifer forest in response to increased temperatures. The introduction of L. decidua prevents the collapse of larch in these low‐diversity areas and thus mitigates the response to warming. Using contemporary MODIS albedo measurements, we determined that a conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low‐diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m^?2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change.