Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities

Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to examine the community-level effects of ongoing evolution.     

A general population genetic framework for antagonistic selection that accounts for demography and recurrent mutation

Antagonistic selection--where alleles at a locus have opposing effects on male and female fitness ("sexual antagonism") or between components of fitness ("antagonistic pleiotropy")--might play an important role in maintaining population genetic variation and in driving phylogenetic and genomic patterns of sexual dimorphism and life-history evolution. While prior theory has thoroughly characterized the conditions necessary for antagonistic balancing selection to operate, we currently know little about the evolutionary interactions between antagonistic selection, recurrent mutation, and genetic drift, which should collectively shape empirical patterns of genetic variation. To fill this void, we developed and analyzed a series of population genetic models that simultaneously incorporate these processes. Our models identify two general properties of antagonistically selected loci. First, antagonistic selection inflates heterozygosity and fitness variance across a broad parameter range--a result that applies to alleles maintained by balancing selection and by recurrent mutation. Second, effective population size and genetic drift profoundly affect the statistical frequency distributions of antagonistically selected alleles. The "efficacy" of antagonistic selection (i.e., its tendency to dominate over genetic drift) is extremely weak relative to classical models, such as directional selection and overdominance. Alleles meeting traditional criteria for strong selection (N(e)s > 1, where N(e) is the effective population size, and s is a selection coefficient for a given sex or fitness component) may nevertheless evolve as if neutral. The effects of mutation and demography may generate population differences in overall levels of antagonistic fitness variation, as well as molecular population genetic signatures of balancing selection.     

PLEIOTROPY CAUSES LONG-TERM GENETIC CONSTRAINTS ON LIFE-HISTORY EVOLUTION IN BRASSICA RAPA

Fundamental, long-term genetic trade-offs constrain life-history evolution in wild crucifer populations. I studied patterns of genetic constraint in Brassica rapa by estimating genetic correlations among life-history components by quantitative genetic analyses among ten wild populations, and within four populations. Genetic correlations between age and size at first reproduction were always greater than +0.8 within and among all populations studied. Although quantitative genetics might provide insight about genetic constraints if genetic parameters remain approximately constant, little evidence has been available to determine the constancy of genetic correlations. I found strong and consistent estimates of genetic correlations between life-history components, which were very similar within four natural populations. Population differentiation also showed these same trade-offs, resulting from long-term genetic constraint. For some traits, evolutionary changes among populations were incompatible with a model of genetic drift. Historical patterns of natural selection were inferred from population differentiation, suggesting that correlated response to selection has caused some traits to evolve opposite to the direct forces of natural selection. Comparison with Arabidopsis suggests that these life-history trade-offs are caused by genes that regulate patterns of resource allocation to different components of fitness. Ecological and energetic models may correctly predict these trade-offs because there is little additive genetic variation for rates of resource acquisition, but resource allocation is genetically variable.     

Riding across the selection landscape: fitness consequences of annual variation in reproductive characteristics

Evolutionary models estimating phenotypic selection in character size usually assume that the character is invariant across reproductive bouts. We show that variation in the size of reproductive traits may be large over multiple events and can influence fitness in organisms where these traits are produced anew each season. With data from populations of two orchid species, Caladenia valida and Tolumnia variegata, we used Bayesian statistics to investigate the effect on the distribution in fitness of individuals when the fitness landscape is not flat and when characters vary across reproductive bouts. Inconsistency in character size across reproductive periods within an individual increases the uncertainty of mean fitness and, consequently, the uncertainty in individual fitness. The trajectory of selection is likely to be muddled as a consequence of variation in morphology of individuals across reproductive bouts. The frequency and amplitude of such changes will certainly affect the dynamics between selection and genetic drift.     

Quantitative Genetic Analysis Indicates Natural Selection on Leaf Phenotypes Across Wild Tomato Species (Solanum sect. Lycopersicon; Solanaceae)

Adaptive evolution requires both raw genetic material and an accessible path of high fitness from one fitness peak to another. In this study, we used an introgression line (IL) population to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for leaf traits thought to be associated with adaptation to precipitation in wild tomatoes (Solanum sect. Lycopersicon; Solanaceae). A QTL sign test showed that several traits likely evolved under directional natural selection. Leaf traits correlated across species do not share a common genetic basis, consistent with a scenario in which selection maintains trait covariation unconstrained by pleiotropy or linkage disequilibrium. Two large effect QTL for stomatal distribution colocalized with key genes in the stomatal development pathway, suggesting promising candidates for the molecular bases of adaptation in these species. Furthermore, macroevolutionary transitions between vastly different stomatal distributions may not be constrained when such large-effect mutations are available. Finally, genetic correlations between stomatal traits measured in this study and data on carbon isotope discrimination from the same ILs support a functional hypothesis that the distribution of stomata affects the resistance to CO₂ diffusion inside the leaf, a trait implicated in climatic adaptation in wild tomatoes. Along with evidence from previous comparative and experimental studies, this analysis indicates that leaf traits are an important component of climatic niche adaptation in wild tomatoes and demonstrates that some trait transitions between species could have involved few, large-effect genetic changes, allowing rapid responses to new environmental conditions.     

Intra-Population Genetic Variation in the Temporal Pattern of Egg Maturation in a Parasitoid Wasp

Parasitoid wasps are taxonomically and biologically extremely diverse. A conceptual framework has recently been developed for understanding life-history evolution and diversification in these animals, and it has confirmed that each of two linked life-history traits – the mode of larval development and the temporal pattern of egg maturation – acts as an organiser of life-history. The framework has been predicated on the assumption that there exists sufficient genetic variation in the latter trait to allow it to be shaped by natural selection. Focusing on the parasitoid wasp Trichogramma brassicae, our aim was to test the validity of that assumption, using established quantitative genetic methods. We demonstrate the existence of a statistically significant degree of intra-population polygenic variation in the temporal pattern of egg production within the wasp population we studied. Furthermore, our results, together with published data on clinal variation in the egg maturation pattern of another species, suggest that intra-specific evolutionary shifts in the temporal pattern of egg maturation of parasitoid wasps can result from a change in allocation to egg production either before, or very shortly after adult emergence, without there being an accompanying change in lifetime fecundity. As well as opening new avenues of research into the reproductive strategies, behaviour, community organisation and biological control potential of parasitoid wasps, this discovery also has implications for studies of life-history evolution and diversification in insects generally.     

The genetic architecture of a niche: variation and covariation in host use traits in the Colorado potato beetle

The genetic basis of host plant use by phytophagous insects can provide insight into the evolution of ecological niches, especially phenomena such as specialization and phylogenetic conservatism. We carried out a quantitative genetic analysis of multiple host use traits, estimated on five species of host plants, in the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Mean values of all characters varied among host plants, providing evidence that adaptation to plants may require evolution of both behavioral (preference) and post-ingestive physiological (performance) characteristics. Significant additive genetic variation was detected for several characters on several hosts, but not in the capacity to use the two major hosts, a pattern that might be caused by directional selection. No negative genetic correlations across hosts were detected for any 'performance' traits, i.e. we found no evidence of trade-offs in fitness on different plants. Larval consumption was positively genetically correlated across host plants, suggesting that diet generalization might evolve as a distinct trait, rather than by independent evolution of feeding responses to each plant species, but several other traits did not show this pattern. We explored genetic correlations among traits expressed on a given plant species, in a first effort to shed light on the number of independent traits that may evolve in response to selection for host-plant utilization. Most traits were not correlated with each other, implying that adaptation to a novel potential host could be a complex, multidimensional 'character' that might constrain adaptation and contribute to the pronounced ecological specialization and the phylogenetic niche conservatism that characterize many clades of phytophagous insects.     

On the evolution of clonal plant life histories

Clonal plant life histories are special in at least four respects: (1) Clonal plants can also reproduce vegetatively, (2) vegetative reproduction can be realised with short or long spacers, (3) and it may allow to plastically place vegetative offspring in benign patches. (4) Moreover, ramets of clonal plants may remain physically and physiologically integrated. Because of the apparent utility of such traits and because ecological patterns of distribution of clonal and non-clonal plants differ, adaptation is a tempting explanation of observed clonal life-history variation. However, adaptive evolution requires (1) heritable genetic variation and (2) a trait effect on fitness, and (3) it may be constrained if other evolutionary forces are overriding selection or by constraints, costs and trade-offs. (1) The few studies undertaken so far reported broad-sense heritability for clonal traits. Variation in selectively neutral genetic markers appears as pronounced in populations of clonal as non-clonal plants. However, neutral markers may not reflect heritable variation of life-history traits. Moreover, clonal plants may have been sampled at larger spatial scales. Empirical information on the contribution of somatic mutations to heritable variation is lacking. (2) Clonal life-history traits were found to affect fitness. However, much of this evidence stems from artificial rather than natural environments. (3) The relative importance of gene flow, inbreeding, and genetic drift, compared with selection, in the evolution of clonal life histories is hardly explored. Benefits of clonal life-history traits were frequently studied and found. However, there is also evidence for constraints, trade-offs, and costs. In conclusion, though it is very likely, that clonal life-history traits are adaptive, it is neither clear to which degree this is the case, nor which clonal life-history traits constitute adaptations to which environmental factors. Moreover, evolutionary interactions among clonal life-history traits and between clonal and non-clonal ones, such as the mating system, are not well explored. There remains much interesting work to be done in this field – which will be particularly interesting if it is done in the field.     

Insulin-like growth factor-1 is associated with life-history variation across Mammalia

Despite the diversity of mammalian life histories, persistent patterns of covariation have been identified, such as the ‘fast–slow’ axis of life-history covariation. Smaller species generally exhibit ‘faster’ life histories, developing and reproducing rapidly, but dying young. Hormonal mechanisms with pleiotropic effects may mediate such broad patterns of life-history variation. Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) is one such mechanism because heightened IGF-1 activity is related to traits associated with faster life histories, such as increased growth and reproduction, but decreased lifespan. Using comparative methods, we show that among 41 mammalian species, increased plasma IGF-1 concentrations are associated with fast life histories and altricial reproductive patterns. Interspecific path analyses show that the effects of IGF-1 on these broad patterns of life-history variation are through its direct effects on some individual life-history traits (adult body size, growth rate, basal metabolic rate) and through its indirect effects on the remaining life-history traits. Our results suggest that the role of IGF-1 as a mechanism mediating life-history variation is conserved over the evolutionary time period defining mammalian diversification, that hormone–trait linkages can evolve as a unit, and that suites of life-history traits could be adjusted in response to selection through changes in plasma IGF-1.     

Natural selection and quantitative genetics of life-history traits in Western women: a twin study

Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection will cause a change among women in a contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the "baby boom" phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.     

Evidence for strong intralocus sexual conflict in the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella

Males and females share a genome and express many shared phenotypic traits, which are often selected in opposite directions. This generates intralocus sexual conflict that may constrain trait evolution by preventing the sexes from reaching their optimal phenotype. Furthermore, if present across multiple loci, intralocus sexual conflict can result in a gender load that may diminish the benefits of sexual selection and help maintain genetic variation for fitness. Despite the importance of intralocus sexual conflict, surprisingly few empirical studies conclusively demonstrate its operation. We show that the pattern of multivariate selection acting on three sexually dimorphic life-history traits (development time, body size, and longevity) in the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella, is opposing for the sexes. Moreover, we combined our estimates of selection with the additive genetic variance-covariance matrix (G) to predict the evolutionary response of the life-history traits in the sexes and showed that the angle between the vector of responses and the vector of sexually antagonistic selection was almost orthogonal at 84.70°. Thus, G biases the predicted response of life-history traits in the sexes away from the direction of sexually antagonistic selection, confirming the presence of strong intralocus sexual conflict in this species. Despite this, sexual dimorphism has evolved in all of the life-history traits examined suggesting that mechanism(s) have evolved to resolve this conflict and allow the sexes to reach their life-history optima. We argue that intralocus sexual conflict is likely to play an important role in the evolution of divergent life-history strategies between the sexes in this species.     

DOES TOTAL REPRODUCTIVE EFFORT EVOLVE INDEPENDENTLY OF OFFSPRING SIZE?

In all species, patterns of reproductive allocation have important fitness consequences and therefore important implications for life-history evolution. Nearly universally, theory in this field has modeled as independent the evolution of total allocation to offspring and the subsequent division of this allocation into many small versus few large offspring. Yet, some theory and a very small amount of experimental evidence suggest that these life-history traits may be evolutionarily linked. Using comparative analyses of copepod life histories, we illustrate that rather than being evolutionarily independent these traits can be linked, in this case, across a very large clade of invertebrates. Our results indicate that a more complete understanding of the evolution of these traits will require greater consideration of simultaneous allocation decisions, rather than sequential ones, and other genetic and selective mechanisms.     

Genetic differentiation for size at first reproduction through male versus female functions in the widespread Mediterranean tree Pinus pinaster

Background and Aims

The study of local adaptation in plant reproductive traits has received substantial attention in short-lived species, but studies conducted on forest trees are scarce. This lack of research on long-lived species represents an important gap in our knowledge, because inferences about selection on the reproduction and life history of short-lived species cannot necessarily be extrapolated to trees. This study considers whether the size for first reproduction is locally adapted across a broad geographical range of the Mediterranean conifer species Pinus pinaster. In particular, the study investigates whether this monoecious species varies genetically among populations in terms of whether individuals start to reproduce through their male function, their female function or both sexual functions simultaneously. Whether differences among populations could be attributed to local adaptation across a climatic gradient is then considered.

Methods

Male and female reproduction and growth were measured during early stages of sexual maturity of a P. pinaster common garden comprising 23 populations sampled across the species range. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess genetic variability of early reproductive life-history traits. Environmental correlations with reproductive life-history traits were tested after controlling for neutral genetic structure provided by 12 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers.

Key Results

Trees tended to reproduce first through their male function, at a size (height) that varied little among source populations. The transition to female reproduction was slower, showed higher levels of variability and was negatively correlated with vegetative growth traits. Several female reproductive traits were correlated with a gradient of growth conditions, even after accounting for neutral genetic structure, with populations from more unfavourable sites tending to commence female reproduction at a lower individual size.

Conclusions

The study represents the first report of genetic variability among populations for differences in the threshold size for first reproduction between male and female sexual functions in a tree species. The relatively uniform size at which individuals begin reproducing through their male function probably represents the fact that pollen dispersal is also relatively invariant among sites. However, the genetic variability in the timing of female reproduction probably reflects environment-dependent costs of cone production. The results also suggest that early sex allocation in this species might evolve under constraints that do not apply to other conifers.     

GENETIC DRIFT IN ANTAGONISTIC GENES LEADS TO DIVERGENCE IN SEX‐SPECIFIC FITNESS BETWEEN EXPERIMENTAL POPULATIONS OF DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER

Males and females differ in their reproductive roles and as a consequence are often under diverging selection pressures on shared phenotypic traits. Theory predicts that divergent selection can favor the invasion of sexually antagonistic alleles, which increase the fitness of one sex at the detriment of the other. Sexual antagonism can be subsequently resolved through the evolution of sex‐specific gene expression, allowing the sexes to diverge phenotypically. Although sexual dimorphism is very common, recent evidence also shows that antagonistic genetic variation continues to segregate in populations of many organisms. Here we present empirical data on the interaction between sexual antagonism and genetic drift in populations that have independently evolved under standardized conditions. We demonstrate that small experimental populations of Drosophila melanogaster have diverged in male and female fitness, with some populations showing high male, but low female fitness while other populations show the reverse pattern. The between‐population patterns are consistent with the differentiation in reproductive fitness being driven by genetic drift in sexually antagonistic alleles. We discuss the implications of our results with respect to the maintenance of antagonistic variation in subdivided populations and consider the wider implications of drift in fitness‐related genes.     

Natural selection on female life-history traits in relation to socio-economic class in pre-industrial human populations

Life-history theory predicts that resource scarcity constrains individual optimal reproductive strategies and shapes the evolution of life-history traits. In species where the inherited structure of social class may lead to consistent resource differences among family lines, between-class variation in resource availability should select for divergence in optimal reproductive strategies. Evaluating this prediction requires information on the phenotypic selection and quantitative genetics of life-history trait variation in relation to individual lifetime access to resources. Here, we show using path analysis how resource availability, measured as the wealth class of the family, affected the opportunity and intensity of phenotypic selection on the key life-history traits of women living in pre-industrial Finland during the 1800s and 1900s. We found the highest opportunity for total selection and the strongest selection on earlier age at first reproduction in women of the poorest wealth class, whereas selection favoured older age at reproductive cessation in mothers of the wealthier classes. We also found clear differences in female life-history traits across wealth classes: the poorest women had the lowest age-specific survival throughout their lives, they started reproduction later, delivered fewer offspring during their lifetime, ceased reproduction younger, had poorer offspring survival to adulthood and, hence, had lower fitness compared to the wealthier women. Our results show that the amount of wealth affected the selection pressure on female life-history in a pre-industrial human population.     

QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF SIZE AND PHENOLOGY OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN CHAMAECRISTA FASCICULATA

Despite numerous adaptive scenarios concerning the evolution of plant life-history phenologies few studies have examined the heritable basis for and genetic correlations among these phenologies. Documentation of genetic variation for and covariation among reproductive phenologies is important because it is this variation/covariation that will determine the potential for response to evolutionary forces. To address this problem, I conducted a breeding experiment to determine narrow-sense heritabilities for and genetic correlations among the phenologies of life-history events and plant size in Chamaecristafasciculata, a temperate summer annual plant species. Paternal families showed no evidence of heritable variation for two estimates of plant size, six measures of reproductive phenology or two fitness components. Similarly, paternal estimates of genetic correlations among these traits were low or zero. In contrast, maternal estimates of heritability suggested the influence of maternal parent on one estimate of plant size and four phenological traits. Likewise, maternal effects influenced maternal estimates of genetic correlations. These maternal effects can arise from three sources: endosperm nuclear, cytoplasmic genetic and/or maternal phenotypic. The degree to which the phenology of one life-history trait acts as a constraint on the evolution of other phenological traits depends on the source of the maternal influence in this species.     

Colony size predicts division of labour in attine ants

Division of labour is central to the ecological success of eusocial insects, yet the evolutionary factors driving increases in complexity in division of labour are little known. The size–complexity hypothesis proposes that, as larger colonies evolve, both non-reproductive and reproductive division of labour become more complex as workers and queens act to maximize inclusive fitness. Using a statistically robust phylogenetic comparative analysis of social and environmental traits of species within the ant tribe Attini, we show that colony size is positively related to both non-reproductive (worker size variation) and reproductive (queen–worker dimorphism) division of labour. The results also suggested that colony size acts on non-reproductive and reproductive division of labour in different ways. Environmental factors, including measures of variation in temperature and precipitation, had no significant effects on any division of labour measure or colony size. Overall, these results support the size–complexity hypothesis for the evolution of social complexity and division of labour in eusocial insects. Determining the evolutionary drivers of colony size may help contribute to our understanding of the evolution of social complexity.     

FITNESS TRADE-OFFS MEDIATED BY IMMUNOSUPPRESSION COSTS IN A SMALL MAMMAL

Trade-offs are widespread between life-history traits, such as reproduction and survival. However, their underlying physiological and behavioral mechanisms are less clear. One proposed physiological factor involves the trade-off between investment in male reproductive effort and immunity. Based on this hypothesis, we investigated differences in fitness between artificially selected immune response bank vole groups, Myodes glareolus . Significant heritability of immune response was found and a correlated response in testosterone levels to selection on immune function. Male reproductive effort, reproductive success, and survival of first generation offspring were assessed and we demonstrate a relationship between laboratory measured immune parameters and fitness parameters in field enclosures. We identify a trade-off between reproductive effort and survival with immune response and parasites as mediators. However, this trade-off results in equal male fitness in natural conditions, potentially demonstrating different male signaling strategies for either reproductive effort or survival. Females gain indirect genetic benefits for either genetic disease resistance or male reproductive effort, but not both. Immune response is genetically variable, genetically linked to testosterone and may indirectly maintain genetic variation for sexually selected traits. Evidence for both a genetic and a field trade-off between reproductive effort and survival indicates an evolutionary constraint on fitness traits.     

Genetic variation and covariation of susceptibility to parasitoids in the aphid Myzus persicae: no evidence for trade-offs

Parasitoids are an important mortality factor for insects. Susceptibility to parasitoids should thus be under strong negative selection. Nevertheless, ample genetic variation for susceptibility to parasitoids is commonly observed in natural populations, suggesting that trade-offs may constrain the evolution of reduced susceptibility. This can be studied by assessing genetic variation for susceptibility and its covariation with other components of fitness. In a set of 17 clones of the peach potato aphid, Myzus persicae, for which good estimates of heritable variation for life-history traits were available, we found significant clonal variation for susceptibility to two of their common parasitoids: Aphidius colemani and Diaeretiella rapae. One clone, the only one harbouring a facultative endosymbiotic bacterium, Regiella insecticola, was entirely resistant to both parasitoids. Susceptibilities to the two parasitoids exhibited a positive genetic correlation close to unity, implying a general mechanism of defence. However, the susceptibility to parasitoids was uncorrelated to the clones' fecundity or rate of increase, providing no evidence for costs of the ability to resist parasitoids.     

High evolutionary constraints limited adaptive responses to past climate changes in toad skulls

Interactions among traits that build a complex structure may be represented as genetic covariation and correlation. Genetic correlations may act as constraints, deflecting the evolutionary response from the direction of natural selection. We investigated the relative importance of drift, selection, and constraints in driving skull divergence in a group of related toad species. The distributional range of these species encompasses very distinct habitats with important climatic differences and the species are primarily distinguished by differences in their skulls. Some parts of the toad skull, such as the snout, may have functional relevance in reproductive ecology, detecting water cues. Thus, we hypothesized that the species skull divergence was driven by natural selection associated with climatic variation. However, given that all species present high correlations among skull traits, our second prediction was of high constraints deflecting the response to selection. We first extracted the main morphological direction that is expected to be subjected to selection by using within- and between-species covariance matrices. We then used evolutionary regressions to investigate whether divergence along this direction is explained by climatic variation between species. We also used quantitative genetics models to test for a role of random drift versus natural selection in skull divergence and to reconstruct selection gradients along species phylogeny. Climatic variables explained high proportions of between-species variation in the most selected axis. However, most evolutionary responses were not in the direction of selection, but aligned with the direction of allometric size, the dimension of highest phenotypic variance in the ancestral population. We conclude that toad species have responded to selection related to climate in their skulls, yet high evolutionary constraints dominated species divergence and may limit species responses to future climate change.