Influenza transmission in a community during a seasonal influenza A(H3N2) outbreak (2010-2011) in Mongolia: a community-based prospective cohort study

Background

Knowledge of how influenza viruses spread in a community is important for planning and implementation of effective interventions, including social distancing measures. Households and schools are implicated as the major sites for influenza virus transmission. However, the overall picture of community transmission is not well defined during actual outbreaks. We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study to describe the transmission characteristics of influenza in Mongolia.

Methods and Findings

A total of 5,655 residents in 1,343 households were included in this cohort study. An active search for cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) was performed between October 2010 and April 2011. Data collected during a community outbreak of influenza A(H3N2) were analyzed. Total 282 ILI cases occurred during this period, and 73% of the subjects were aged <15 years. The highest attack rate (20.4%) was in those aged 1–4 years, whereas the attack rate in those aged 5–9 years was 10.8%. Fifty-one secondary cases occurred among 900 household contacts from 43 households (43 index cases), giving an overall crude household secondary attack rate (SAR) of 5.7%. SAR was significantly higher in younger household contacts (relative risk for those aged <1 year: 9.90, 1–4 years: 5.59, and 5–9 years: 6.43). We analyzed the transmission patterns among households and a community and repeated transmissions were detected between households, preschools, and schools. Children aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission in households and in the community at large. Working-age adults were also a source of influenza in households, whereas elderly cases (aged ≥65 years) had no link with household transmission.

Conclusions

Repeated transmissions between households, preschools, and schools were observed during an influenza A(H3N2) outbreak period in Mongolia, where subjects aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission.     

Transmission of Novel Influenza A(H1N1) in Households with Post-Exposure Antiviral Prophylaxis

Background

Despite impressive advances in our understanding of the biology of novel influenza A(H1N1) virus, little is as yet known about its transmission efficiency in close contact places such as households, schools, and workplaces. These are widely believed to be key in supporting propagating spread, and it is therefore of importance to assess the transmission levels of the virus in such settings.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We estimate the transmissibility of novel influenza A(H1N1) in 47 households in the Netherlands using stochastic epidemic models. All households contained a laboratory confirmed index case, and antiviral drugs (oseltamivir) were given to both the index case and other households members within 24 hours after detection of the index case. Among the 109 household contacts there were 9 secondary infections in 7 households. The overall estimated secondary attack rate is low (0.075, 95%CI: 0.037–0.13). There is statistical evidence indicating that older persons are less susceptible to infection than younger persons (relative susceptibility of older persons: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.024–0.43. Notably, the secondary attack rate from an older to a younger person is 0.35 (95%CI: 0.14–0.61) when using an age classification of ≤12 versus >12 years, and 0.28 (95%CI: 0.12–0.50) when using an age classification of ≤18 versus >18 years.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results indicate that the overall household transmission levels of novel influenza A(H1N1) in antiviral-treated households were low in the early stage of the epidemic. The relatively high rate of adult-to-child transmission indicates that control measures focused on this transmission route will be most effective in minimizing the total number of infections.     

Secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in urban households in Kampala, Uganda

Background

Tuberculosis is an ancient disease that continues to threaten individual and public health today, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Current surveillance systems describe general risk of tuberculosis in a population but do not characterize the risk to an individual following exposure to an infectious case.

Methods

In a study of household contacts of infectious tuberculosis cases (n = 1918) and a community survey of tuberculosis infection (N = 1179) in Kampala, Uganda, we estimated the secondary attack rate for tuberculosis disease and tuberculosis infection. The ratio of these rates is the likelihood of progressive primary disease after recent household infection.

Results

The secondary attack rate for tuberculosis disease was 3.0% (95% confidence interval: 2.2, 3.8). The overall secondary attack rate for tuberculosis infection was 47.4 (95% confidence interval: 44.3, 50.6) and did not vary widely with age, HIV status or BCG vaccination. The risk for progressive primary disease was highest among the young or HIV infected and was reduced by BCG vaccination.

Conclusions

Early case detection and treatment may limit household transmission of M. tuberculosis. Household members at high risk for disease should be protected through vaccination or treatment of latent tuberculosis infection.     

Household Transmission of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Seasons

Background

The transmission of influenza viruses occurs person to person and is facilitated by contacts within enclosed environments such as households. The aim of this study was to evaluate secondary attack rates and factors associated with household transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.

Methods

During the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 influenza seasons, 76 sentinel physicians in Navarra, Spain, took nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness. A trained nurse telephoned households of those patients who were laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 to ask about the symptoms, risk factors and vaccination status of each household member.

Results

In the 405 households with a patient laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 977 susceptible contacts were identified; 16% of them (95% CI 14–19%) presented influenza-like illness and were considered as secondary cases. The secondary attack rate was 14% in 2009–2010 and 19% in the 2010–2011 season (p = 0.049), an increase that mainly affected persons with major chronic conditions. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of being a secondary case was higher in the 2010–2011 season than in the 2009–2010 season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.72; 95% CI 1.17–2.54), and in children under 5 years, with a decreasing risk in older contacts. Influenza vaccination was associated with lesser incidence of influenza-like illness near to statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio: 0.29; 95% CI 0.08–1.03).

Conclusion

The secondary attack rate in households was higher in the second season than in the first pandemic season. Children had a greater risk of infection. Preventive measures should be maintained in the second pandemic season, especially in high-risk persons.     

Environmental Contamination as a Risk Factor for Intra-Household Staphylococcus aureus Transmission

Background

The household is a recognized community reservoir for Staphylococcus aureus. This study investigated potential risk factors for intra-household S. aureus transmission, including the contribution of environmental contamination.

Methods

We investigated intra-household S. aureus transmission using a sample of multiple member households from a community-based case-control study examining risk factors for CA-MRSA infection conducted in Northern Manhattan. During a home visit, index subjects completed a questionnaire. All consenting household members were swabbed, as were standardized environmental household items. Swabs were cultured for S. aureus. Positive isolates underwent further molecular characterization. Intra-household transmission was defined as having identical strains among two or more household members. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for transmission.

Results

We enrolled 291 households: 146 index cases, 145 index controls and 687 of their household contacts. The majority of indexes were Hispanic (85%), low income (74%), and female (67%), with a mean age of 31 (range 1–79). The average size of case and control households was 4 people. S. aureus colonized individuals in 62% of households and contaminated the environment in 54% of households. USA300 was the predominant clinical infection, colonizing and environmental strain. Eighty-one households had evidence of intra-household transmission: 55 (38%) case and 26 (18%) control households (P<.01). Environmental contamination with a colonizing or clinical infection strain (aOR: 5.4 [2.9–10.3] P<.01) and the presence of a child under 5 (aOR: 2.3 [1.2–4.5] P = .02) were independently associated with transmission. In separate multivariable models, environmental contamination was associated with transmission among case (aOR 3.3, p<.01) and control households (aOR 27.2, p<.01).

Conclusions

Environmental contamination with a colonizing or clinical infection strain was significantly and independently associated with transmission in a large community-based sample. Environmental contamination should be considered when treating S. aureus infections, particularly among households with multiple infected members.     

Household transmission of leptospira infection in urban slum communities

Background

Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonotic disease, is the cause of epidemics associated with high mortality in urban slum communities. Infection with pathogenic Leptospira occurs during environmental exposures and is traditionally associated with occupational risk activities. However, slum inhabitants reside in close proximity to environmental sources of contamination, suggesting that transmission during urban epidemics occurs in the household environment.

Methods and Findings

A survey was performed to determine whether Leptospira infection clustered within households located in slum communities in the city of Salvador, Brazil. Hospital-based surveillance identified 89 confirmed cases of leptospirosis during an outbreak. Serum samples were obtained from members of 22 households with index cases of leptospirosis and 52 control households located in the same slum communities. The presence of anti-Leptospira agglutinating antibodies was used as a marker for previous infection. In households with index cases, 22 (30%) of 74 members had anti-Leptospira antibodies, whereas 16 (8%) of 195 members from control households had anti-Leptospira antibodies. Highest titres were directed against L. interrogans serovars of the Icterohaemorrhagiae serogroup in 95% and 100% of the subjects with agglutinating antibodies from case and control households, respectively. Residence in a household with an index case of leptospirosis was associated with increased risk (OR 5.29, 95% CI 2.13–13.12) of having had a Leptospira infection. Increased infection risk was found for all age groups who resided in a household with an index case, including children <15 years of age (P = 0.008).

Conclusions

This study identified significant household clustering of Leptospira infection in slum communities where recurrent epidemics of leptospirosis occur. The findings support the hypothesis that the household environment is an important transmission determinant in the urban slum setting. Prevention therefore needs to target sources of contamination and risk activities which occur in the places where slum inhabitants reside.     

Modelling the proportion of influenza infections within households during pandemic and non-pandemic years

Background

The key epidemiological difference between pandemic and seasonal influenza is that the population is largely susceptible during a pandemic, whereas, during non-pandemic seasons a level of immunity exists. The population-level efficacy of household-based mitigation strategies depends on the proportion of infections that occur within households. In general, mitigation measures such as isolation and quarantine are more effective at the population level if the proportion of household transmission is low.

Methods/Results

We calculated the proportion of infections within households during pandemic years compared with non-pandemic years using a deterministic model of household transmission in which all combinations of household size and individual infection states were enumerated explicitly. We found that the proportion of infections that occur within households was only partially influenced by the hazard h of infection within household relative to the hazard of infection outside the household, especially for small basic reproductive numbers. During pandemics, the number of within-household infections was lower than one might expect for a given because many of the susceptible individuals were infected from the community and the number of susceptible individuals within household was thus depleted rapidly. In addition, we found that for the value of at which 30% of infections occur within households during non-pandemic years, a similar 31% of infections occur within households during pandemic years.

Interpretation

We suggest that a trade off between the community force of infection and the number of susceptible individuals in a household explains an apparent invariance in the proportion of infections that occur in households in our model. During a pandemic, although there are more susceptible individuals in a household, the community force of infection is very high. However, during non-pandemic years, the force of infection is much lower but there are fewer susceptible individuals within the household.     

Household Transmission of Rotavirus in a Community with Rotavirus Vaccination in Quininde,Ecuador

Background

We studied the transmission of rotavirus infection in households in peri-urban Ecuador in the vaccination era.

Methods

Stool samples were collected from household contacts of child rotavirus cases, diarrhea controls and healthy controls following presentation of the index child to health facilities. Rotavirus infection status of contacts was determined by RT-qPCR. We examined factors associated with transmissibility (index-case characteristics) and susceptibility (household-contact characteristics).

Results

Amongst cases, diarrhea controls and healthy control household contacts, infection attack rates (iAR) were 55%, 8% and 2%, (n = 137, 130, 137) respectively. iARs were higher from index cases with vomiting, and amongst siblings. Disease ARs were higher when the index child was <18 months and had vomiting, with household contact <10 years and those sharing a room with the index case being more susceptible. We found no evidence of asymptomatic infections leading to disease transmission.

Conclusion

Transmission rates of rotavirus are high in households with an infected child, while background infections are rare. We have identified factors associated with transmission (vomiting/young age of index case) and susceptibility (young age/sharing a room/being a sibling of the index case). Vaccination may lead to indirect benefits by averting episodes or reducing symptoms in vaccinees.     

Avian influenza H5N1 transmission in households, Indonesia

Background

Disease transmission patterns are needed to inform public health interventions, but remain largely unknown for avian influenza H5N1 virus infections. A recent study on the 139 outbreaks detected in Indonesia between 2005 and 2009 found that the type of exposure to sources of H5N1 virus for both the index case and their household members impacted the risk of additional cases in the household. This study describes the disease transmission patterns in those outbreak households.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared cases (n = 177) and contacts (n = 496) in the 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks detected between July 2005 and July 2009 to estimate attack rates and disease intervals. We used final size household models to fit transmission parameters to data on household size, cases and blood-related household contacts to assess the relative contribution of zoonotic and human-to-human transmission of the virus, as well as the reproduction number for human virus transmission. The overall household attack rate was 18.3% and secondary attack rate was 5.5%. Secondary attack rate remained stable as household size increased. The mean interval between onset of subsequent cases in outbreaks was 5.6 days. The transmission model found that human transmission was very rare, with a reproduction number between 0.1 and 0.25, and the upper confidence bounds below 0.4. Transmission model fit was best when the denominator population was restricted to blood-related household contacts of index cases.

Conclusions/Significance

The study only found strong support for human transmission of the virus when a single large cluster was included in the transmission model. The reproduction number was well below the threshold for sustained transmission. This study provides baseline information on the transmission dynamics for the current zoonotic virus and can be used to detect and define signatures of a virus with increasing capacity for human-to-human transmission.     

Efficiency of estimating vaccine efficacy for susceptibility and infectiousness: randomization by individual versus household

In designing vaccine efficacy studies based on the secondary attack rate (SAR) or transmission probability in which both vaccine efficacy for susceptibility, VE(S), and vaccine efficacy for infectiousness, VE(I), are estimated, the allocation of vaccine and placebo within transmission units has an important influence on the efficiency of the study. We compared the following randomization schemes that result in different allocations of vaccine and placebo within two-member households: (1) randomization by individual for a mixed allocation, (2) randomization by transmission unit for concordant allocation, and (3) randomization of only one individual in each transmission unit to either vaccine or placebo. There is a complex interaction among the VE(S), VE(I), and the SAR that determines which allocation of vaccine and placebo within households provides the most information. In general, individual randomization with a mixed allocation of vaccine and placebo is better for estimating both VE(S) and VE(I) than is randomizing by household. However, for estimation of VE(I), at very low SARs and low VE(S), randomization by household is slightly more efficient than randomization by individual.     

Household Transmission of Vibrio cholerae in Bangladesh

Background

Vibrio cholerae infections cluster in households. This study''s objective was to quantify the relative contribution of direct, within-household exposure (for example, via contamination of household food, water, or surfaces) to endemic cholera transmission. Quantifying the relative contribution of direct exposure is important for planning effective prevention and control measures.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Symptom histories and multiple blood and fecal specimens were prospectively collected from household members of hospital-ascertained cholera cases in Bangladesh from 2001–2006. We estimated the probabilities of cholera transmission through 1) direct exposure within the household and 2) contact with community-based sources of infection. The natural history of cholera infection and covariate effects on transmission were considered. Significant direct transmission (p-value<0.0001) occurred among 1414 members of 364 households. Fecal shedding of O1 El Tor Ogawa was associated with a 4.9% (95% confidence interval: 0.9%–22.8%) risk of infection among household contacts through direct exposure during an 11-day infectious period (mean length). The estimated 11-day risk of O1 El Tor Ogawa infection through exposure to community-based sources was 2.5% (0.8%–8.0%). The corresponding estimated risks for O1 El Tor Inaba and O139 infection were 3.7% (0.7%–16.6%) and 8.2% (2.1%–27.1%) through direct exposure, and 3.4% (1.7%–6.7%) and 2.0% (0.5%–7.3%) through community-based exposure. Children under 5 years-old were at elevated risk of infection. Limitations of the study may have led to an underestimation of the true risk of cholera infection. For instance, available covariate data may have incompletely characterized levels of pre-existing immunity to cholera infection. Transmission via direct exposure occurring outside of the household was not considered.

Conclusions

Direct exposure contributes substantially to endemic transmission of symptomatic cholera in an urban setting. We provide the first estimate of the transmissibility of endemic cholera within prospectively-followed members of households. The role of direct transmission must be considered when planning cholera control activities.     

Haemophilus influenzae type B meningitis: a contagious disease of children.

The families of 126 consecutive patients with Haemophilus influenzae type B meningitis were surveyed for secondary invasive H influenzae disease among household contacts. A total of 120 of the families were contacted. In six cases no contact was possible and the medical record was reviewed. Some 555 household contacts were found; 31% (171) were under 5 years of age. A secondary case was defined as a household contact with H influenzae type B isolated from blood or cerebrospinal fluid more than 24 hours, but less than 30 days, after admission to hospital of the index case. Four secondary cases were identified, all in children aged under 5 years. The secondary attack rate in children under 5 years or less in the month after exposure to an index case was thus 2.3%, 800 times the endemic attack rate for H influenzae meningitis. This is a conservative estimate since five additional contact cases were documented, but not included in the secondary attack rate. Young contacts of a child with H influenzae meningitis are thus at significant risk of life-threatening secondary disease.     

Preliminary findings of a randomized trial of non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent influenza transmission in households

Background

There are sparse data on whether non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce the spread of influenza. We implemented a study of the feasibility and efficacy of face masks and hand hygiene to reduce influenza transmission among Hong Kong household members.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial of households (composed of at least 3 members) where an index subject presented with influenza-like-illness of <48 hours duration. After influenza was confirmed in an index case by the QuickVue Influenza A+B rapid test, the household of the index subject was randomized to 1) control or 2) surgical face masks or 3) hand hygiene. Households were visited within 36 hours, and 3, 6 and 9 days later. Nose and throat swabs were collected from index subjects and all household contacts at each home visit and tested by viral culture. The primary outcome measure was laboratory culture confirmed influenza in a household contact; the secondary outcome was clinically diagnosed influenza (by self-reported symptoms). We randomized 198 households and completed follow up home visits in 128; the index cases in 122 of those households had laboratory-confirmed influenza. There were 21 household contacts with laboratory confirmed influenza corresponding to a secondary attack ratio of 6%. Clinical secondary attack ratios varied from 5% to 18% depending on case definitions. The laboratory-based or clinical secondary attack ratios did not significantly differ across the intervention arms. Adherence to interventions was variable.

Conclusions/Significance

The secondary attack ratios were lower than anticipated, and lower than reported in other countries, perhaps due to differing patterns of susceptibility, lack of significant antigenic drift in circulating influenza virus strains recently, and/or issues related to the symptomatic recruitment design. Lessons learnt from this pilot have informed changes for the main study in 2008.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00425893","term_id":"NCT00425893"}}NCT00425893 HKClinicalTrials.com HKCTR-365     

Impact of Intensive Handwashing Promotion on Secondary Household Influenza-Like Illness in Rural Bangladesh: Findings from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Rationale

There is little evidence for the efficacy of handwashing for prevention of influenza transmission in resource-poor settings. We tested the impact of intensive handwashing promotion on household transmission of influenza-like illness and influenza in rural Bangladesh.

Methods

In 2009–10, we identified index case-patients with influenza-like illness (fever with cough or sore throat) who were the only symptomatic person in their household. Household compounds of index case-patients were randomized to control or intervention (soap and daily handwashing promotion). We conducted daily surveillance and collected oropharyngeal specimens. Secondary attack ratios (SAR) were calculated for influenza and ILI in each arm. Among controls, we investigated individual risk factors for ILI among household contacts of index case-patients.

Results

Among 377 index case-patients, the mean number of days between fever onset and study enrollment was 2.1 (SD 1.7) among the 184 controls and 2.6 (SD 2.9) among 193 intervention case-patients. Influenza infection was confirmed in 20% of controls and 12% of intervention index case-patients. The SAR for influenza-like illness among household contacts was 9.5% among intervention (158/1661) and 7.7% among control households (115/1498) (SAR ratio 1.24, 95% CI 0.92–1.65). The SAR ratio for influenza was 2.40 (95% CI 0.68–8.47). In the control arm, susceptible contacts <2 years old (RR_adj 5.51, 95% CI 3.43–8.85), those living with an index case-patient enrolled ≤24 hours after symptom onset (RR_adj 1.91, 95% CI 1.18–3.10), and those who reported multiple daily interactions with the index case-patient (RR_adj 1.94, 95% CI 1.71–3.26) were at increased risk of influenza-like illness.

Discussion

Handwashing promotion initiated after illness onset in a household member did not protect against influenza-like illness or influenza. Behavior may not have changed rapidly enough to curb transmission between household members. A reactive approach to reduce household influenza transmission through handwashing promotion may be ineffective in the context of rural Bangladesh.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00880659     

Influenza A (H1N1) in Victoria, Australia: a community case series and analysis of household transmission

Background

We characterise the clinical features and household transmission of pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) in community cases from Victoria, Australia in 2009.

Methods

Questionnaires were used to collect information on epidemiological characteristics, illness features and co-morbidities of cases identified in the 2009 Victorian Influenza Sentinel Surveillance program.

Results

The median age of 132 index cases was 21 years, of whom 54 (41%) were under 18 years old and 28 (21%) had medical co-morbidities. The median symptom duration was significantly shorter for children who received antivirals than in those who did not (p = 0.03). Assumed influenza transmission was observed in 63 (51%) households. Influenza-like illness (ILI) developed in 115 of 351 household contacts, a crude secondary attack rate of 33%. Increased ILI rates were seen in households with larger numbers of children but not larger numbers of adults. Multivariate analysis indicated contacts of cases with cough and diarrhoea, and contacts in quarantined households were significantly more likely to develop influenza-like symptoms.

Conclusion

Most cases of pH1N1 in our study were mild with similar clinical characteristics to seasonal influenza. Illness and case features relating to virus excretion, age and household quarantine may have influenced secondary ILI rates within households.     

Factors Associated with Household Transmission of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among Self-Quarantined Patients in Beijing,China

As the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 progressed, the Ministry of Health of China advised cases with mild symptoms to remain home for isolation and observation, which may have increased the risk for infection among other household members. Describing the transmission characteristics of this novel virus is indispensable to effectively controlling the spread of disease; thus, the aim of this study was to assess risk factors associated with household transmission of pandemic H1N1 from self-quarantined patients in Beijing, the capital city of China. A 1:2 case-control study with 54 case households and 108 control households was conducted between August 1 and September 30, 2009 in Beijing. Cases were households with a self-quarantined index patient and a secondary case, while controls were households with a self-quarantined index patient and a close contact. Controls were also matched to cases for sex and age of index case-patient. A structured interview guide was used to collect the data. Conditional logistical models were employed to estimate Odds Ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results indicated that higher education level (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.83), sharing room with an index case-patient (OR 3.29; 95%CI 1.23-8.78), daily room ventilation (OR 0.28; 95%CI 0.08-0.93), and hand washing ≥3/d (OR 0.71; 95%CI 0.48-0.94) were related to the household transmission of pandemic H1N1 from self-quarantined patients. These results highlight that health education, as well as the quarantine of the index case-patient immediately after infection, frequent hand hygiene, and ventilation are critical to mitigating household spread of pandemic H1N1 virus and minimizing its impact. Household contacts should be educated to promote these in-home practices to contain transmission, particularly when household members are quarantined at home.     

Sensitivity of household transmission to household contact structure and size

Objective

Study the influence of household contact structure on the spread of an influenza-like illness. Examine whether changes to in-home care giving arrangements can significantly affect the household transmission counts.

Method

We simulate two different behaviors for the symptomatic person; either s/he remains at home in contact with everyone else in the household or s/he remains at home in contact with only the primary caregiver in the household. The two different cases are referred to as full mixing and single caregiver, respectively.

Results

The results show that the household’s cumulative transmission count is lower in case of a single caregiver configuration than in the full mixing case. The household transmissions vary almost linearly with the household size in both single caregiver and full mixing cases. However the difference in household transmissions due to the difference in household structure grows with the household size especially in case of moderate flu.

Conclusions

These results suggest that details about human behavior and household structure do matter in epidemiological models. The policy of home isolation of the sick has significant effect on the household transmission count depending upon the household size.     

Two-phase importance sampling for inference about transmission trees

There has been growing interest in the statistics community to develop methods for inferring transmission pathways of infectious pathogens from molecular sequence data. For many datasets, the computational challenge lies in the huge dimension of the missing data. Here, we introduce an importance sampling scheme in which the transmission trees and phylogenies of pathogens are both sampled from reasonable importance distributions, alleviating the inference. Using this approach, arbitrary models of transmission could be considered, contrary to many earlier proposed methods. We illustrate the scheme by analysing transmissions of Streptococcus pneumoniae from household to household within a refugee camp, using data in which only a fraction of hosts is observed, but which is still rich enough to unravel the within-household transmission dynamics and pairs of households between whom transmission is plausible. We observe that while probability of direct transmission is low even for the most prominent cases of transmission, still those pairs of households are geographically much closer to each other than expected under random proximity.     

The environment as an unrecognized reservoir for community-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus USA300: a case-control study

Background

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) infections are spreading, but the source of infections in non-epidemic settings remains poorly defined.

Methods

We carried out a community-based, case-control study investigating socio-demographic risk factors and infectious reservoirs associated with MRSA infections. Case patients presented with CA-MRSA infections to a New York hospital. Age-matched controls without infections were randomly selected from the hospital''s Dental Clinic patient population. During a home visit, case and control subjects completed a questionnaire, nasal swabs were collected from index respondents and household members and standardized environmental surfaces were swabbed. Genotyping was performed on S. aureus isolates.

Results

We enrolled 95 case and 95 control subjects. Cases more frequently reported diabetes mellitus and a higher number of skin infections among household members. Among case households, 53 (56%) were environmentally contaminated with S. aureus, compared to 36 (38%) control households (p = .02). MRSA was detected on fomites in 30 (32%) case households and 5 (5%; p<.001) control households. More case patients, 20 (21%) were nasally colonized with MRSA than were control indexes, 2 (2%; p<.001). In a subgroup analysis, the clinical isolate (predominantly USA300), was more commonly detected on environmental surfaces in case households with recurrent MRSA infections (16/36, 44%) than those without (14/58, 24%, p = .04).

Conclusions

The higher frequency of environmental contamination of case households with S. aureus in general and MRSA in particular implicates this as a potential reservoir for recolonization and increased risk of infection. Environmental colonization may contribute to the community spread of epidemic strains such as USA300.