Evolution of Complex Density-Dependent Dispersal Strategies

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, “triple-threshold” strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.     

Spatial connectedness imposes local‐ and metapopulation‐level selection on life history through feedbacks on demography

Dispersal evolution impacts the fluxes of individuals and hence, connectivity in metapopulations. Connectivity is therefore decoupled from the structural connectedness of the patches within the spatial network. Because of demographic feedbacks, local selection also drives the evolution of other life history traits. We investigated how different levels of connectedness affect trait evolution in experimental metapopulations of the two‐spotted spider mite. We separated local‐ and metapopulation‐level selection and linked trait divergence to population dynamics. With lower connectedness, an increased starvation resistance and delayed dispersal evolved. Reproductive performance evolved locally by transgenerational plasticity or epigenetic processes. Costs of dispersal, but also changes in local densities and temporal fluctuations herein are found to be putative drivers. In addition to dispersal, demographic traits are able to evolve in response to metapopulation connectedness at both the local and metapopulation level by genetic and/or non‐genetic inheritance. These trait changes impact the persistence of spatially structured populations.     

Negative density-dependent dispersal emerges from the joint evolution of density- and body condition-dependent dispersal strategies

Empirical studies have documented both positive and negative density-dependent dispersal, yet most theoretical models predict positive density dependence as a mechanism to avoid competition. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the occurrence of negative density-dependent dispersal, but few of these have been formally modeled. Here, we developed an individual-based model of the evolution of density-dependent dispersal. This model is novel in that it considers the effects of density on dispersal directly, and indirectly through effects on individual condition. Body condition is determined mechanistically, by having juveniles compete for resources in their natal patch. We found that the evolved dispersal strategy was a steep, increasing function of both density and condition. Interestingly, although populations evolved a positive density-dependent dispersal strategy, the simulated metapopulations exhibited negative density-dependent dispersal. This occurred because of the negative relationship between density and body condition: high density sites produced low-condition individuals that lacked the resources required for dispersal. Our model, therefore, generates the novel hypothesis that observed negative density-dependent dispersal can occur when high density limits the ability of organisms to disperse. We suggest that future studies consider how phenotype is linked to the environment when investigating the evolution of dispersal.     

Condition‐dependent movement and dispersal in experimental metacommunities

Dispersal and the underlying movement behaviour are processes of pivotal importance for understanding and predicting metapopulation and metacommunity dynamics. Generally, dispersal decisions are condition‐dependent and rely on information in the broad sense, like the presence of conspecifics. However, studies on metacommunities that include interspecific interactions generally disregard condition‐dependence. Therefore, it remains unclear whether and how dispersal in metacommunities is condition‐dependent and whether rules derived from single‐species contexts can be scaled up to (meta)communities. Using experimental protist metacommunities, we show how dispersal and movement depend on and are adjusted by the strength of interspecific interactions. We found that the predicting movement and dispersal in metacommunities requires knowledge on behavioural responses to intra‐ and interspecific interaction strengths. Consequently, metacommunity dynamics inferred directly from single‐species metapopulations without taking interspecific interactions into account are likely flawed. Our work identifies the significance of condition‐dependence for understanding metacommunity dynamics, stability and the coexistence and distribution of species.     

Effects of cognitive abilities on metapopulation connectivity

Connectivity among demes in a metapopulation depends on both the landscape's and the focal organism's properties (including its mobility and cognitive abilities). Using individual‐based simulations, we contrast the consequences of three different cognitive strategies on several measures of metapopulation connectivity. Model animals search suitable habitat patches while dispersing through a model landscape made of cells varying in size, shape, attractiveness and friction. In the blind strategy, the next cell is chosen randomly among the adjacent ones. In the near‐sighted strategy, the choice depends on the relative attractiveness of these adjacent cells. In the far‐ sighted strategy, animals may additionally target suitable patches that appear within their perceptual range. Simulations show that the blind strategy provides the best overall connectivity, and results in balanced dispersal. The near‐sighted strategy traps animals into corridors that reduce the number of potential targets, thereby fragmenting metapopulations in several local clusters of demes, and inducing sink–source dynamics. This sort of local trapping is somewhat prevented in the far‐sighted strategy. The colonization success of strategies depends highly on initial energy reserves: blind does best when energy is high, near‐sighted wins at intermediate levels, and far‐sighted outcompetes its rivals at low energy reserves. We also expect strong effects in terms of metapopulation genetics: the blind strategy generates a migrant‐pool mode of dispersal that should erase local structures. By contrast, near‐ and far‐sighted strategies generate a propagule‐pool mode of dispersal and source–sink behavior that should boost structures (high genetic variance among‐ and low variance within local clusters of demes), particularly if metapopulation dynamics is also affected by extinction–colonization processes. Our results thus point to important effects of the cognitive ability of dispersers on the connectivity, dynamics and genetics of metapopulations.     

Adaptive Patch Searching Strategies in Fragmented Landscapes

The search strategies dispersers employ to search for new habitat patches affect individuals’ search success and subsequently landscape connectivity and metapopulation viability. Some evidence indicates that individuals within the same species may display a variety of behavioural patch searching strategies rather than one species-specific strategy. This may result from landscape heterogeneity. We modelled the evolution of individual patch searching strategies in different landscapes. Specifically, we analysed whether evolution can favour different, co-existing, behavioural search strategies within one population and to what extent this coexistence of multiple strategies was dependent on landscape configuration. Using an individual-based simulation model, we studied the evolution of patch searching strategies in three different landscape configurations: uniform, random and clumped. We found that landscape configuration strongly influenced the evolved search strategy. In uniform landscapes, one fixed search strategy evolved for the entire spatially structured population, while in random and clumped landscapes, a set of different search strategies emerged. The coexistence of several search strategies also strongly depended on the dispersal mortality. We show that our result can affect landscape connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. Co-ordinating editor: N. Yamamura     

Dispersal and the metapopulation paradigm in amphibian ecology and conservation: are all amphibian populations metapopulations?

Amphibians are frequently characterized as having limited dispersal abilities, strong site fidelity and spatially disjunct breeding habitat. As such, pond‐breeding species are often alleged to form metapopulations. Amphibian species worldwide appear to be suffering population level declines caused, at least in part, by the degradation and fragmentation of habitat and the intervening areas between habitat patches. If the simplification of amphibians occupying metapopulations is accurate, then a regionally based conservation strategy, informed by metapopulation theory, is a powerful tool to estimate the isolation and extinction risk of ponds or populations. However, to date no attempt to assess the class‐wide generalization of amphibian populations as metapopulations has been made. We reviewed the literature on amphibians as metapopulations (53 journal articles or theses) and amphibian dispersal (166 journal articles or theses for 53 anuran species and 37 salamander species) to evaluate whether the conditions for metapopulation structure had been tested, whether pond isolation was based only on the assumption of limited dispersal, and whether amphibian dispersal was uniformly limited. We found that in the majority of cases (74%) the assumptions of the metapopulation paradigm were not tested. Breeding patch isolation via limited dispersal and/or strong site fidelity was the most frequently implicated or tested metapopulation condition, however we found strong evidence that amphibian dispersal is not as uniformly limited as is often thought. The frequency distribution of maximum movements for anurans and salamanders was well described by an inverse power law. This relationship predicts that distances beneath 11–13 and 8–9 km, respectively, are in a range that they may receive one emigrating individual. Populations isolated by distances approaching this range are perhaps more likely to exhibit metapopulation structure than less isolated populations. Those studies that covered larger areas also tended to report longer maximum movement distances – a pattern with implications for the design of mark‐recapture studies. Caution should be exercised in the application of the metapopulation approach to amphibian population conservation. Some amphibian populations are structured as metapopulations – but not all.     

Spatially heterogeneous stochasticity and the adaptive diversification of dormancy

Diversified bet‐hedging, a strategy that leads several individuals with the same genotype to express distinct phenotypes in a given generation, is now well established as a common evolutionary response to environmental stochasticity. Life‐history traits defined as diversified bet‐hedging (e.g. germination or diapause strategies) display marked differences between populations in spatial proximity. In order to find out whether such differences can be explained by local adaptations to spatially heterogeneous environmental stochasticity, we explored the evolution of bet‐hedging dormancy strategies in a metapopulation using a two‐patch model with patch differences in stochastic juvenile survival. We found that spatial differences in the level of environmental stochasticity, restricted dispersal, increased fragmentation and intermediate survival during dormancy all favour the adaptive diversification of bet‐hedging dormancy strategies. Density dependency also plays a major role in the diversification of dormancy strategies because: (i) it may interact locally with environmental stochasticity and amplify its effects; however, (ii) it can also generate chaotic population dynamics that may impede diversification. Our work proposes new hypotheses to explain the spatial patterns of bet‐hedging strategies that we hope will encourage new empirical studies of this topic.     

Inertia: the discrepancy between individual and common good in dispersal and prospecting behaviour

The group selection debate of the 1960s made it clear that evolution does not necessarily increase population performance. Individuals can be selected to have traits that diminish a common good and make population persistence difficult. At the extreme, the discrepancy between levels of selection is predicted to make traits evolve towards values at which a population can no longer persist (evolutionary suicide). Dispersal and prospecting are prime examples of traits that have a strong influence on population persistence under environmental and demographic stochasticity. Theory predicts that an ‘optimal’ dispersal strategy from a population point of view can differ considerably from that produced by individual‐level selection. Because dispersal is frequently risky or otherwise costly, individuals are often predicted to disperse less than would be ideal for population performance (persistence or size). We define this discrepancy as ‘inertia’ and examine current knowledge of its occurrence and effects on population dynamics in nature. We argue that inertia is potentially widespread but that a framework is currently lacking for predicting precisely the extent to which it has a real influence on population persistence. The opposite of inertia, ‘hypermobility’ (more dispersal by individuals than would maximize population performance) remains a possibility: it is known that highest dispersal rates do not lead to best expected population performance, and examples of such high dispersal evolving exist at least in the theoretical literature. We also show, by considering prospecting behaviour, that similar issues arise in species with advanced cognitive and learning abilities. Individual prospecting strategies and the information acquired during dispersal are known to influence the decisions and therefore the fate of individuals and, as a corollary, populations. Again, the willingness of individuals to sample environments might evolve to levels that are not optimal for populations. This conflict can take intriguing forms. For example, better cognitive abilities of individuals may not always lead to better population‐level performance. Simulation studies have found that ‘blind’ dispersal can lead to better connected metapopulations than cognitively more advanced habitat choice rules: the latter can lead to too many individuals sticking to nearby safe habitat. The study of the mismatch between individual and population fitness should not be a mere intellectual exercise. Population managers typically need to take a population‐level view of performance, which may necessitate human intervention if it differs from what is selected for. We conclude that our knowledge of inertia and hypermobility would advance faster if theoretical studies—without much additional effort—quantified the population consequences of the evolving traits and compared this with hypothetical (not selectively favoured) dispersal rules, and if empirical studies were similarly conducted with the differing levels of selection in mind.     

Density‐dependent dispersal and the formation of range borders.

Knowledge about the mechanisms of range formation is crucial for scientifically based species conservation strategies in the face of ongoing global climate change. In recent years an increasing amount of studies have focused on the influences of density‐dependent dispersal on demographic and biogeographical patterns. However, it still remains unclear, to what extent and in what ways this strategy would affect the range formation of species. In order to fill this gap, we present a study using individual‐based simulations of a species with discrete generations living along a dispersal mortality gradient. We compare the evolution of range sizes for species following density‐dependent and density‐independent emigration. Furthermore we assess the influence of environmental stochasticity and Allee effects on range formation, as both processes are known to play an important role for dispersal evolution. We find that density‐dependent dispersal always results in much wider ranges than unconditional dispersal. Increasing environmental stochasticity, a predicted consequence of climate change, can remarkably expand the ranges of species living in such connectivity gradients if dispersal decisions are based on local population density. A strong Allee effect causes range contraction for both strategies, but the effect is considerably less dramatic under density‐dependent compared to density‐independent emigration. We strongly recommend accounting for these findings in future attempts to model species’ range shifts due to climate change.     

Simulating viability of a spadefoot toad Pelobates fuscus metapopulation in a landscape fragmented by a road

A stochastic simulation model allowing for demographic and environmental stochasticity was developed in order to predict the dynamics of a Pelobates fuscus metapopulation. The metapopulation (consisting of ca 1000 adult individuals) was intensively studied in the field for a period of four years and the simulation model was parameterised (sex ratio, age‐specific survival rates, fecundity and dispersal between subpopulations) using field data. A sensitivity analysis revealed that a change in the juvenile yearly survival rate has a relatively larger effect on subpopulation persistence than adult survival rate and fecundity rate have. The probability of subpopulation persistence for one hundred years increased from 0 to 0.6 with a change in juvenile yearly survival rate from 0.35 to 0.40. Varying dispersal rate (from 0 to 1% of the individuals in a subpopulation moving to another subpopulation within a year) showed that four of the five subpopulations are dependent on the last one for persistence, indicating a source‐sink structure of the metapopulation. The subpopulation with the highest estimated juvenile survival has a far higher persistence probability than the others; they in turn would go extinct were it not for the occasional input of individuals from the source subpopulation. The source‐sink structure was also apparent when simulating the isolation effect of the road: persistence of the subpopulation isolated by the road decreases markedly with only a 20% decrease in the number of individuals dispersing to this pond. Environmental stochasticity decreases persistence time of the source subpopulation, but increases persistence time of the unstable ones. This is probably due to the presence of overcompensating density‐dependent factors affecting the subpopulations and to the more general effect of stochasticity: it may temporarily change reproduction and mortality rates, increase time to extinction for unstable subpopulations through a rescue effect; and decrease time to extinction for the more stable subpopulations.     

Habitat choice stabilizes metapopulation dynamics by enabling ecological specialization

Dispersal is a key trait responsible for the spread of individuals and genes among local populations, thereby generating eco‐evolutionary interactions. Especially in heterogeneous metapopulations, a tight coupling between dispersal, population dynamics and the evolution of local adaptation is expected. In this respect, dispersal should counteract ecological specialization by redistributing locally selected phenotypes (i.e. migration load). Habitat choice following an informed dispersal decision, however, can facilitate the evolution of ecological specialization. How such informed decisions influence metapopulation size and variability is yet to be determined. By means of individual‐based modelling, we demonstrate that informed decisions about both departure and settlement decouple the evolution of dispersal and that of generalism, selecting for highly dispersive specialists. Choice at settlement is based on information from the entire dispersal range, and therefore decouples dispersal from ecological specialization more effectively than choice at departure, which is only based on local information. Additionally, habitat choice at departure and settlement reduces local and metapopulation variability because of the maintenance of ecological specialization at all levels of dispersal propensity. Our study illustrates the important role of habitat choice for dynamics of spatially structured populations and thus emphasizes the importance of considering that dispersal is often informed.     

Heterogeneity in local density allows a positive evolutionary relationship between self‐fertilisation and dispersal

Despite empirical evidence for a positive relationship between dispersal and self‐fertilization (selfing), theoretical work predicts that these traits should always be negatively correlated, and the Good Coloniser Syndrome of high dispersal and selfing (Cf. Baker's Law) should not evolve. Critically, previous work assumes that adult density is spatiotemporally homogeneous, so selfing results in identical offspring production for all patches, eliminating the benefit of dispersal for escaping from local resource competition. We investigate the joint evolution of dispersal and selfing in a demographically structured metapopulation model where local density is spatiotemporally heterogeneous due to extinction‐recolonization dynamics. Selfing alleviates outcrossing failure due to low local density (an Allee effect) while dispersal alleviates competition through dispersal of propagules from high‐ to low‐density patches. Because local density is spatiotemporally heterogeneous in our model, selfing does not eliminate heterogeneity in competition, so dispersal remains beneficial even under full selfing. Hence the Good Coloniser Syndrome is evolutionarily stable under a broad range of conditions, and both negative and positive relationships between dispersal and selfing are possible, depending on the environment. Our model thus accommodates positive empirical relationships between dispersal and selfing not predicted by previous theoretical work and provides additional explanations for negative relationships.     

Sex-specific spatio-temporal variability in reproductive success promotes the evolution of sex-biased dispersal

Inbreeding depression, asymmetries in costs or benefits of dispersal, and the mating system have been identified as potential factors underlying the evolution of sex-biased dispersal. We use individual-based simulations to explore how the mating system and demographic stochasticity influence the evolution of sex-specific dispersal in a metapopulation with females competing over breeding sites, and males over mating opportunities. Comparison of simulation results for random mating with those for a harem system (locally, a single male sires all offspring) reveal that even extreme variance in local male reproductive success (extreme male competition) does not induce male-biased dispersal. The latter evolves if the between-patch variance in reproductive success is larger for males than females. This can emerge due to demographic stochasticity if the habitat patches are small. More generally, members of a group of individuals experiencing higher spatio-temporal variance in fitness expectations may evolve to disperse with greater probability than others.     

Metapopulation dynamics: Does it help to have more of the same?

With the interest in conservation biology shifting towards processes from patterns, and to populations from communities, the theory of metapopulation dynamics is replacing the equilibrium theory of island biogeography as the population ecology paradigm in conservation biology. The simplest models of metapopulation dynamics make predictions about the effects of habitat fragmentation - size and isolation of habitat patches - on metapopulation persistence. The simple models may be enriched by considerations of the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the size and extinction probability of local populations. Environmental stochasticity affects populations at two levels: it makes local extinctions more probable, and it also decreases metapopulation persistence time by increasing the correlation of extinction events across populations. Some controversy has arisen over the significance of correlated extinctions, and how they may affect the optimal subdivision of metapopulations to maximize their persistence time.     

Dispersal and alternative breeding site fidelity strategies in an amphibian

Dispersal (i.e. movement from a natal or breeding site to another breeding site) is a central process in ecology and evolution as it affects the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations. Dispersal evolution is regulated by the balance between costs and benefits, which is influenced by the individual phenotype (i.e. phenotype‐dependent dispersal) and environmental factors (i.e. condition‐dependent dispersal). Even though these processes have been extensively studied in species with simple life cycles, our knowledge about these mechanisms in organisms displaying complex life cycles remains fragmentary. In fact, little is specifically known about how the interplay between individual and environmental factors may lead to alternative dispersal strategies that, in turn, lead to the coexistence of contrasted site fidelity phenotypes. In this paper, we examined breeding dispersal in a pond‐breeding amphibian, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus, within usual walking distances for a newt. We took advantage of recent developments in multi‐event capture–recapture models and used capture–recapture data (946 newts marked) collected in a spatially structured population occupying a large pond network (73 ponds). We showed a high rate of breeding site infidelity (i.e. pond use) and the coexistence of two dispersal phenotypes, namely, a highly pond faithful phenotype and a dispersing phenotype. Individuals that were site faithful at time t – 1 were therefore more likely to remain site faithful at time t. Our results also demonstrated that the probability that individuals belong to one or the other dispersal phenotypes depended on environmental and individual factors. In particular, we highlighted the existence of a dispersal syndrome implying a covariation pattern among dispersal behavior, body size, and survival. Our work opens new research prospects in the evolution of dispersal in organisms displaying complex life cycles and raises interesting questions about the evolutionary pathways that contribute to the diversification of movement strategies in the wild.     

The evolution of density-dependent dispersal

Despite a large body of empirical evidence suggesting that the dispersal rates of many species depend on population density, most metapopulation models assume a density-independent rate of dispersal. Similarly, studies investigating the evolution of dispersal have concentrated almost exclusively on density-independent rates of dispersal. We develop a model that allows density-dependent dispersal strategies to evolve. Our results demonstrate that a density-dependent dispersal strategy almost always evolves and that the form of the relationship depends on reproductive rate, type of competition, size of subpopulation equilibrium densities and cost of dispersal. We suggest that future metapopulation models should account for density-dependent dispersal     

Cooperation‐mediated plasticity in dispersal and colonization

Kin selection theory predicts that costly cooperative behaviors evolve most readily when directed toward kin. Dispersal plays a controversial role in the evolution of cooperation: dispersal decreases local population relatedness and thus opposes the evolution of cooperation, but limited dispersal increases kin competition and can negate the benefits of cooperation. Theoretical work has suggested that plasticity of dispersal, where individuals can adjust their dispersal decisions according to the social context, might help resolve this paradox and promote the evolution of cooperation. Here, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that conditional dispersal decisions are mediated by a cooperative strategy: we quantified the density‐dependent dispersal decisions and subsequent colonization efficiency from single cells or groups of cells among six genetic strains of the unicellular Tetrahymena thermophila that differ in their aggregation level (high, medium, and low), a behavior associated with cooperation strategy. We found that the plastic reaction norms of dispersal rate relative to density differed according to aggregation level: highly aggregative genotypes showed negative density‐dependent dispersal, whereas low‐aggregation genotypes showed maximum dispersal rates at intermediate density, and medium‐aggregation genotypes showed density‐independent dispersal with intermediate dispersal rate. Dispersers from highly aggregative genotypes had specialized long‐distance dispersal phenotypes, contrary to low‐aggregation genotypes; medium‐aggregation genotypes showing intermediate dispersal phenotype. Moreover, highly aggregation genotypes showed evidence for beneficial kin‐cooperation during dispersal. Our experimental results should help to resolve the evolutionary conflict between cooperation and dispersal: cooperative individuals are expected to avoid kin‐competition by dispersing long distances, but maintain the benefits of cooperation by dispersing in small groups.     

Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes: significant interactions between genetic and demographic processes

We formulated a mathematical model in order to study the joint influence of demographic and genetic processes on metapopulation viability. Moreover, we explored the influence of habitat structure, matrix quality and disturbance on the interplay of these processes. We showed that the conditions that allow metapopulation persistence under the synergistic action of genetic and demographic processes depart significantly from predictions based on a mere superposition of the effects of each process separately. Moreover, an optimal dispersal rate exists that maximizes the range of survival rates of dispersers under which metapopulation persists and at the same time allows the largest sustainable patch removal and patch‐size reduction. The relative impact of patch removal and patch‐size reduction depends both on matrix quality and the dispersal strategy of the species: metapopulation persistence is more affected by patch‐size reduction (patch removal) for low (high)‐dispersing species, in presence of a low (high) quality matrix. Avoidance of inbreeding, through increased dispersal when the rate of inbreeding in a population is large, has positive effects on low‐dispersing species, but impairs the persistence of high‐dispersing species. Finally, size heterogeneity between patches largely influences metapopulation dynamics; the presence of large patches, even at the expense of other patches being smaller, can have positive effects on persistence in particular for species of low dispersing ability.     

Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks

In spatially heterogeneous landscapes, some habitats may be persistent sources, providing immigrants to sustain populations in unfavorable sink habitats (where extinction is inevitable without immigration). Recent theoretical and empirical studies of source-sink systems demonstrate that temporally variable local growth rates in sinks can substantially increase average abundance of a persisting population, provided that the variation is positively autocorrelated--in effect, temporal variation inflates average abundance. Here we extend these results to a metapopulation in which all habitat patches are sinks. Using numerical studies of a population with discrete generations (buttressed by analytic results), we show that temporal variation and moderate dispersal can jointly permit indefinite persistence of the metapopulation and that positive autocorrelation both lowers the magnitude of variation required for persistence and increases the average abundance of persisting metapopulations. These effects are weakened--but not destroyed--if variation in local growth rates is spatially synchronized and dispersal is localized. We show that the inflationary effect is robust to a number of extensions of the basic model, including demographic stochasticity and density dependence. Because ecological and environmental processes contributing to temporally variable growth rates in natural populations are typically autocorrelated, these observations may have important implications for species persistence.