亚洲半干旱区碳水通量时空格局及驱动因素

亚洲半干旱区生态系统敏感，环境问题突出，作为全球近30年来碳水通量变化最大的区域，明确其碳水通量的时空分布格局和驱动因素对区域资源管理与可持续发展、全球气候变化等领域具有重要意义。基于植被与土壤湿度的联合同化产品(LPJ-Vegetation and soil moisture Joint Assimilation, LPJ-VSJA),结合研究区植被及气象数据，分析了亚洲半干旱区2010—2018年碳水通量植被总初级生产力(GPP)、蒸散发(ET)和水分利用效率(WUE)的时空变化、年际变化贡献率以及驱动因素。结果表明：(1)2010—2018年亚洲半干旱区年均GPP、ET、WUE空间格局总体呈“双夹型”,中高纬度与低纬度地区的碳水通量值大于中纬度区域。(2)2010—2018年GPP、ET和WUE的年际变化总体都呈现增长趋势，但只有GPP呈现显著增长趋势(P<0.05),增速为7.82 g C m^-2 a^-1。(3)WUE的年际变化表现为总体先增加后减少，正值中农田对WUE年际变化贡献率最大(54.6%),森林生态系统在面积占比仅有...     

中亚热带人工针叶林对未来气候变化的响应

利用基于生理生态学过程的EALCO模型,探讨了千烟洲中亚热带人工针叶林生态系统对未来气候变化的响应.结果表明:CO₂浓度、温度和降水的变化对该人工林生态系统碳水通量影响的程度不同,其中CO₂浓度＞温度＞降水.CO₂浓度是生态系统总光合生产力(GPP)的主要驱动因子,温度与CO₂浓度均是控制生态系统呼吸的主要环境因子,温度的升高使植物地上部分呼吸明显增加,而CO₂浓度升高则对土壤呼吸影响较大.温度升高使蒸散(ET)增加,而CO₂浓度升高则使ET减少.在未来气候变化情景(2100年)下,该人工林生态系统的净初级生产力将增加22%,说明其仍具有较强的固碳潜力.     

气候变化背景下秦岭地区陆地生态系统水分利用率变化趋势

为探究未来气候变化背景下秦岭地区陆地生态系统水分利用率(WUE)的变化规律及其对气候变化的响应,结合IPCC第五次报告资料中心的CCSM4、GISS-E-R、GISS-E-H、IPSL-CM5R-LR-CM、Nor ESM1-1-ME等5个模型相关模拟结果,预测和分析秦岭地区2006—2100年在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5 4种未来典型气候变化情景下其水分利用率的变化趋势及其与降雨、气温、CO_2浓度等关键气候变化因子之间的关系。研究结果表明:4种未来情景下预测的秦岭地区生态系统WUE几乎全为正距平,各情景下WUE倾向率为0.0136—0.13 g C kg-1H_2O 10a-1,均达到极显著水平,且随辐射强迫增加,WUE距平值与倾向率也相应增加。各情景下GPP的增长趋势强于ET,使得两者的比值(即WUE)呈现增长趋势,并随辐射强迫的增加,两者的差异愈发显著,即WUE增长随辐射强迫的增强而更显著。同时,各模型预测的年均气温倾向率为0.21—0.498℃/10a,降雨量倾向率为7.78—17.66 mm/10a。由于气温、降雨量、CO2等关键气候变化因子调控GPP正增长速率大于ET,以及生态系统LAI值和自身的植被演替过程直接影响生态系统WUE,最终使得生态系统WUE呈正增长趋势。其中GPP的显著增加是未来秦岭地区生态系统WUE增长的直接因素,而气温的显著增加与大气CO_2浓度的升高则是WUE变化的主要环境因素,降雨量的影响相对较弱。     

基于模型数据融合的千烟洲亚热带人工林碳水通量模拟

人工林生态系统是我国森林生态系统的重要组成部分,在全球碳平衡中的作用越来越受到重视.利用千烟洲亚热带人工针叶林通量观测站的碳水通量和气象观测数据,通过模型数据融合方法对碳水循环过程模型——SIPNET模型关键参数进行反演,模拟了2004-2009年千烟洲人工林生态系统的碳水通量.结果表明:仅用碳通量观测数据优化模型参数时,净生态系统碳交换量(NEE)模拟效果较好(R2=0.934),而生态系统蒸散(ET)模拟效果较差(R2=0.188);同时用碳水通量观测数据优化时,NEE模拟效果稍差(R2=0.929),但ET模拟效果显著提升(R2=0.824),说明利用碳水通量观测数据同时优化,SIPNET模型才能较好地模拟试验站点碳水通量.在此基础上,开展了人工林生态系统碳通量对降水变化响应的敏感性分析,发现降水量减少对光合作用的影响比对呼吸作用的影响更为强烈,且碳水通量同时参与优化时模型才能较好地模拟碳通量随降水减少而快速降低的趋势,表明如果不能同时利用碳水通量进行参数优化,模型无法正确揭示生态系统碳循环对降水变异的响应.     

不同土壤水分条件下杨树人工林水分利用效率对环境因子的响应

运用涡度相关(Eddy covariance,EC)开路系统和微气象观测系统,于2007年对位于北京市大兴区永定河沙地杨树(Populus euramertcana)人工林与大气间碳、水和能量交换进行了连续测定.通过分析总生态系统生产力(GEP)、蒸发散(ET)以及水分利用效率(WUE=GEP/ET)随相对土壤含水量(REW)的变化趋势,探讨杨树人工林不同土壤水分条件下水分利用效率对气象因子以及下垫面因素的响应,为杨树人工林经营管理提供理论依据.研究结果表明:当REW＜0.1时,GEP和ET受到严重水分胁迫的影响维持在较低水平,环境因子对GEP、ET和WUE的影响较小;当0.1＜REW＜0.4时,GEP和ET随着土壤体积含水量(VWC)的增加而增大,WUE随VWC的增大而减小;REW＞0.4时,气象因子是影响碳固定和水分损耗的主要原因,由于ET对气象因子变化的响应较GEP更为敏感,因此,WUE随空气饱和水汽压差(VPD)的增大而减小.沙地土壤保水能力较差,不能保证土壤水分被植物有效利用,因此当VWC处于5.2%-8.8％(0.1＜REW＜0.4)范围时,碳固定与水分消耗达到最高效率.研究表明杨树人工林WUE随降水变化而变化,未来气候变化和变异有可能影响杨树林耗水和生产力之间的关系.     

海河流域生态水分利用效率时空变化及其与气候因子的相关性分析

生态水分利用效率(water use efficiency,WUE)是碳-水循环的重要参数之一,明晰其时空演变特征对水资源短缺地区生态系统的健康发展具有重要的意义。海河流域水资源短缺是区域农业发展的重要制约因素,基于遥感、气象数据,利用趋势分析、相关分析等方法分析了海河流域2000—2014年总初级生产力(gross primary productivity,GPP)、蒸散量(evapotranspiration,ET)及WUE的时空分布特征,并识别WUE对降水、气温及干旱的响应。研究结果表明:(1)时间上,GPP和ET的变化趋势不显著,WUE呈现显著的增加趋势,增速为0.0185 gC/kg H_2O a~(-1)(R~2=0.6299,P0.01);(2)空间上,WUE和GPP均呈现从东南向西北减小的趋势,高值区主要分布在华北平原农业生态区和京津唐城镇与城郊农业生态区。从变化趋势来看,黄土高原农业与草原生态区的GPP和WUE上升趋势最大;(3)植被类型中,农田的WUE值最高,草地的WUE最低,农田、有林草原和草地均呈现显著的增加趋势(P0.05);(4)影响因素上,降水对WUE的影响最大,WUE由降水、干旱和气温控制的区域分别占整个流域植被面积的44.44%、39.23%和16.01%。     

Carbon–water coupling and its relationship with environmental and biological factors in a planted Caragana liouana shrub community in desert steppe,northwest China

宁夏荒漠草原区中间锦鸡儿灌丛群落碳水循环特征及其与生物环境因子的关系 干旱半干旱区的人工植被重建可能会改变陆地生态系统的重要生物物理过程——碳水循环,然而在人类活动背景下,仍然缺乏对这些区域生态系统的碳水耦合机制的认识。本研究基于涡度相关系统测量了宁夏盐池荒漠草原区人工种植的中间锦鸡儿(Caragana  liouana)灌丛群落的CO2和H2O通量,通过分析总初级生产力(Gross Primary Productivity, GPP)、蒸散发(Evapotranspiration, ET)和水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency, WUE)的变化,探讨了人工灌丛生态系统碳水通量及其耦合关系,并进一步分析驱动其变化的生物环境因子。研究结果表明,气候因子的季节变化导致了生物物理特征和碳水通量呈周期性变化。在生长季,GPP和ET波动较大,而WUE变化相对稳定。GPP、ET和WUE显著受辐射(Global Radiation, Rg)、温度(Ta和Ts)、水汽压亏缺、叶面积指数和植物水分胁迫指数(Plant Water Stress Index, PWSI)的驱动。其中Rg、温度和PWSI是影响WUE的最重要因素。Rg和温度会对WUE产生直接的促进作用,但同时也会间接地提高PWSI进而抑制WUE。PWSI会抑制光合作用和蒸腾作用,当植物水分胁迫超过一个阈值(PWSI > 0.54)时,WUE会下降,这是因为GPP对植物水分胁迫的响应比ET更敏感。这些研究结果表明,在荒漠草原区通过大规模种植灌木可实现固碳的作用,但也必须充分考虑区域的水资源消耗和水分利用效率的状况。     

青藏高原植被水分利用效率时空变化及与气候因子的关系

水分利用效率(WUE)是研究陆地碳水循环耦合的有效指标,青藏高原是我国最重要的生态安全屏障,了解WUE的特征以及变化机制,对研究高原生态系统碳水循环和水资源合理利用有重要意义。本研究基于MODIS的总初级生产力(GPP)和蒸散发(ET)数据,分析青藏高原WUE的时空变化特征以及气候因子对WUE的影响。结果表明: 2001—2020年,在GPP和ET的共同作用下,青藏高原WUE呈上升趋势;WUE平均值较高的区域为高原东南部、东北部,低值区为高原中部。草地、沼泽、高山植被WUE呈增长趋势,灌丛、阔叶林、针叶林呈下降趋势。WUE与年均气温呈显著正相关,敏感性随着气温的升高而增加;WUE与年降水量呈非线性关系,降水量小于700 mm时,WUE对降水敏感性随着降水增加而减小,降水量大于700 mm,降水敏感性随着降水增加而增大。青藏高原超过75%的区域WUE与降水呈负相关,与气温相比,WUE受降水影响的面积更大,未来气候暖湿化将导致WUE降低。     

气候变化对长白山阔叶红松林冠层蒸腾影响的模拟

应用基于过程的碳水耦合多层模型对长白山阔叶红松林冠层蒸腾量进行了模拟和模型验证,并模拟了冠层蒸腾量对未来气候变化的响应.结果表明:多层模型可以较好地模拟长白山阔叶红松林冠层蒸腾量,模拟值与涡动相关技术观测的实测值拟合较好.冠层蒸腾对气候变化响应的模拟显示,气温升高,潜热通量(LE)增加;土壤含水量减少,LE减少;大气CO2浓度增加,LE减少.在研究假定的气候变化情景下,LE对0～20 cm土壤含水量减少10%、CO2浓度增加190μmol·mol-1的联合变化的响应最敏感,对气温增加3.6℃、土壤含水量减少10%的联合变化的响应不敏感.     

基于树轮δ13C值的北京山区油松水分利用效率

水分利用效率是深入研究森林生态系统水碳循环耦合关系的重要节点之一。北京山区生态系统是北京市的天然生态屏障,研究该地区植被水分利用效率动态及其对气候变化的响应,对于评估区域碳水耦合关系及研究植物对全球气候变化的响应具有重要意义。利用北京市密云县东部山区红门川流域的油松树轮δ~(13)C序列,分析了长期水分利用效率WUE的年际变化。结合密云站及上甸子站的气象数据资料分析结果表明:(1)自1952年至2014年,北京山区红门川流域油松树轮δ~(13)C值序列呈现上升趋势,变动区间为-23.41‰—-27.63‰,平均为-25.56‰;油松WUE的年际值呈现波动下降趋势,变动区间为5.77—16.53,平均值为9.6,平均每年下降0.175,20世纪80年代左右下降趋势最为显著,且之后维持在相对较低的水平,最低值(5.76)出现在1994年,最高值(16.53)出现在1976年,1964年至1980年期间WUE为研究时段内最高,平均值为13.0。由此可见,在过去几十年中,红门川流域油松林的水分利用效率持续降低,固碳能力下降。(2)油松WUE对气温变化响应较好,总体呈现显著负相关,其中与年均气温相关性指数为r~2=0.8248,P0.01,与生长季平均气温相关性指数r~2=0.6952。平均气温每升高0.1℃,油松WUE下降0.205。且平均气温较高的年份油松WUE下降率比低温年份的WUE升高率大,由此推断,气温上升对油松林生态系统水碳循环及耦合关系影响更为显著。(3)油松WUE随着降水量增加而提高,与降水存在一定的正相关关系,但并不显著;在降水量突然减少之后,油松的WUE值会随之上升,持续一段时期后有回落现象,说明WUE值具有一定保守性。(4)WUE对温度变化的响应较降水变化的响应更加敏感。温度的升高及降水的减少导致植物叶片气孔导度降低,进而影响了植物的固碳速率。     

Seasonal responses of terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency to climate change

Ecosystem water‐use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon–water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long‐term trend in annual EWUE over many regions and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO₂. The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982–2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water‐use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET), and transpiration‐based WUE (WUE_t, the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process‐based models and satellite‐based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite‐based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite‐based products. Trend analysis, based on process‐model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO₂, and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO₂ and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid‐ and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO₂ in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m⁻² mm⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO_2, and NDEP.     

云南省植被水分利用效率时空变化及影响因素

对云南省植被水分利用效率(WUE)的时空特征及影响因素进行研究可以更加全面的了解全球气候变化在区域上的响应。基于MODIS数据定量估算了2000—2014年云南省植被水分利用效率，利用趋势分析法和相关分析来对其时空格局和影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明：(1)云南省植被WUE整体呈现显著上升的趋势，增速为0.0078 gC mm^-1 m^-2 a^-1,年内表现为“M”型的变化趋势。2009—2013年的干旱对该地区植被WUE产生了滞后的正效应。不同土地利用类型下的植被WUE从高到低依次为森林，灌木地，草地和耕地。(2)在空间分布上植被WUE呈现西部高于东部的分布特征；在时间尺度上呈现北增南减的趋势。云贵高原与青藏高原的连接区域——丽江市的植被WUE最高，整体上大于2.5 gC mm^-1 m^-2。澜沧江上游的三江并流区植被WUE随着山脉的走势呈现条状变化分布，不仅是植被WUE的低值集中区，同时也是植被WUE增加10%以上的集中区，另外滇东北和滇东南也是植被WUE的低值区。总的来看，除...     

Modeling Productivity in Mangrove Forests as Impacted by Effective Soil Water Availability and Its Sensitivity to Climate Change Using Biome-BGC

Ecosystem dynamics and the responses to climate change in mangrove forests are poorly understood. We applied the biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC to simulate the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) under the present and future climate conditions in mangrove forests in Shenzhen, Zhanjiang, and Qiongshan across the southern coast of China, and in three monocultural mangrove stands of two native species, Avicennia marina and Kandelia obovata, and one exotic species, Sonneratia apetala, in Shenzhen. The soil hydrological process of the model was modified by incorporating a soil water (SW) stress index to account for the impact of the effective SW availability in the coastal wetland. Our modified Biome-BGC well predicted the dynamics of NPP and LAI in the mangrove forests at the study sites. We found that the six mangrove systems differed in sensitivity to variations in the effective SW availability. At the ecosystem level, however, soil salinity alone could not entirely explain the limitation of the effective SW availability on the productivity of mangrove forests. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration differentially affected growth of different mangrove species but only had a small impact on NPP (<7%); whereas a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration associated with a 2°C temperature rise would increase NPP by 14–19% across the three geographically separate mangrove forests and by 12% to as much as 68% across the three monocultural mangrove stands. Our simulation analysis indicates that temperature change is more important than increasing CO₂ concentration in affecting productivity of mangroves at the ecosystem level, and that different mangrove species differ in sensitivity to increases in temperature and CO₂ concentration.     

基于参数优化的人工灌丛生态系统碳水通量模拟

荒漠草原是陆地生态系统中最为脆弱且受人类干扰较为严重的生态类型之一,精准模拟其碳水通量及对人为干扰的响应,不仅能够揭示其复杂的生态学过程,而且还可为人为生态修复和保护提供决策依据。生态模型能够有效地模拟陆地生态系统的碳水循环过程,但模型众多的参数及其取值的合理性限制了其普遍应用,故探索参数优化是提升生态模型应用的有效途径。利用PEST参数优化方法和涡度相关观测数据对Biome-BGC模型的生理生态参数进行优化,在评估参数优化效果的基础上模拟了1986-2018年宁夏盐池荒漠草原区人工灌丛生态系统的总初级生产力（Gross primary productivity,GPP）和蒸散（Evapotranspiration,ET）。结果表明：（1）参数优化可以改善Biome-BGC模型对荒漠草原区人工灌丛生态系统GPP和ET的模拟效果,参数优化后模拟的GPP和ET均更接近于观测值,其中月尺度的模拟效果更佳;（2）基于PEST的Biome-BGC模型参数优化方法具有较强的普适性,优化后的参数可推广应用于荒漠草原区人工灌丛生态系统长时间序列的GPP和ET模拟;（3）宁夏盐池荒漠草原区人工灌丛生态系统的GPP在1986-2018年呈缓慢上升趋势,增幅为1.47 g C m^-2 a^-1,但ET的年际变化率较大,且无显著变化趋势。     

Water‐use efficiency in response to climate change: from leaf to ecosystem in a temperate steppe

Water‐use efficiency (WUE) has been recognized as an important characteristic of ecosystem productivity, which links carbon (C) and water cycling. However, little is known about how WUE responds to climate change at different scales. Here, we investigated WUE at leaf, canopy, and ecosystem levels under increased precipitation and warming from 2005 to 2008 in a temperate steppe in Northern China. We measured gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE), evapotranspiration (ET), evaporation (E), canopy transpiration (T_c), as well as leaf photosynthesis (P_max) and transpiration (T_l) of a dominant species to calculate canopy WUE (WUE_c=GEP/T), ecosystem WUE (WUE_gep=GEP/ET or WUE_nee=NEE/ET) and leaf WUE (WUE_l=P_max/T_l). The results showed that increased precipitation stimulated WUE_c, WUE_gep and WUE_nee by 17.1%, 10.2% and 12.6%, respectively, but decreased WUE_l by 27.4%. Climate warming reduced canopy and ecosystem WUE over the 4 years but did not affect leaf level WUE. Across the 4 years and the measured plots, canopy and ecosystem WUE linearly increased, but leaf level WUE of the dominant species linearly decreased with increasing precipitation. The differential responses of canopy/ecosystem WUE and leaf WUE to climate change suggest that caution should be taken when upscaling WUE from leaf to larger scales. Our findings will also facilitate mechanistic understanding of the C–water relationships across different organism levels and in projecting the effects of climate warming and shifting precipitation regimes on productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems.     

长江经济带水分利用效率变化及与温度和降水的关系

通过水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency, WUE)深入理解生态系统水碳循环的相互关系,可以较好地评估生态系统对气候变化的响应。长江经济带自然资源丰富、生态系统格局复杂,是中国重要的经济发展区,同时也是响应气候变化的重要区域。基于生态系统过程模型CEVSA2(Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere),估算了1981—2010年长江经济带WUE的时空动态变化,并分析其与温度和降水之间的关系。结果表明:(1)长江经济带1981—2010年WUE均值为1.14 g C mm~(-1 )m~(-2),WUE的空间分布与降水量呈显著正相关关系(r=0.571,P0.01),而与温度呈显著负相关(r=-0.740,P0.01);(2)长江经济带1981—2010年WUE变动区间为1.04—1.19 g C mm~(-1) m~(-2),WUE总体呈减少趋势,平均每年降低0.0030 g C mm~(-1) m~(-2);(3)研究区域内四种主要植被类型常绿针叶林、常绿阔叶林、草地和常绿灌丛的水分利用效率均呈下降趋势,下降速率分别为-3.29×10~(-3)、-2.99×10~(-3)、-3.30×10~(-3)、-2.65×10~(-3) g C mm~(-1) m~(-2) a~(-1)。研究区域内各植被类型的WUE与降水量的相关性不如温度显著,温度对WUE的影响要大于降水对WUE的影响。今后在提高时空分辨率的基础上,更精确地模拟和预测未来温度、降水等气候因子变化下长江经济带WUE变化趋势及分析该地区水碳耦合关系。     

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process‐based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux‐tower‐based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO₂ sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr^?1) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr^?1). In response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO₂ than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr^?1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr^?1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model‐to‐model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is ?3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (?3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO₂ and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation‐based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.     

Current Carbon Balance of the Forested Area in Sweden and its Sensitivity to Global Change as Simulated by Biome-BGC

Detailed information from the Swedish National Forest Inventory was used to simulate the carbon balance for Sweden by the process-based model Biome-BGC. A few shortcomings of the model were identified and solutions to those are proposed and also used in the simulations. The model was calibrated against CO₂ flux data from 3 forests in central Sweden and then applied to the whole country divided into 30 districts and 4 age classes. Gross primary production (GPP) ranged over districts and age classes from 0.20 to 1.71 kg C m⁻² y⁻¹ and net ecosystem production (NEP) ranged from −0.01 to 0.44. The 10- to 30-year age class was the strongest carbon sink because of its relatively low respiration rates. When the simulation results were scaled up to the whole country, GPP and NEP were 175 and 29 Mton C y⁻¹, respectively, for the 22.7 Mha of forests in Sweden. A climate change scenario was simulated by assuming a 4°C increase in temperature and a doubling of the CO₂ concentration; GPP and NEP then increased to 253 and 48 Mton C y⁻¹, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that at present CO₂ concentrations NEP would peak at an increase of 5°C for the mean annual temperature. At higher CO₂ levels NEP showed a logarithmic increase.