样地数量对气候变化背景下树种分布预测的影响

基于不同景观破碎化程度下的中性景观,探讨了气候变化背景下样地数量对景观尺度树种分布预测的影响.采用模型耦合的方法进行树种分布预测,设置了3个样地数量预案与1个参考预案.分别在每一破碎化程度下检验3种样地数量预案的预测结果与参考预案之间的差异.结果表明:样地数量会影响树种分布预测结果,具有不同生活史属性的树种对样地数量的需求不同,对普适性树种进行分布预测需要的样地数量较多;除极度特异种外,景观的破碎化程度也会影响样地数量对树种分布预测的影响;随着模拟时间的增加,样地数量对景观尺度树种分布预测的作用会发生变化,对于一些普适种树种来说,长期模拟需要较多的样地.     

芦芽山亚高山草甸、云杉林土壤有机碳、全氮含量的小尺度空间异质性

分析比较了山西芦芽山不同海拔处分布的亚高山草甸（样地A,海拔2756.3 m;样地B,海拔2542.3 m）和云杉林（样地C,海拔2656.8 m;样地D,海拔2387.2 m）土壤有机碳和全氮的小尺度空间异质性特征。结果表明：相同植被类型下海拔较高的样地有机碳含量较高（A：49.84 g/kg,B：38.33 g/kg,C：47.06 g/kg,D：40.67 g/kg）,而较低海拔的样地土壤有机碳含量的异质性较高;除样地A以外的其他3个样地均表现为高度空间依赖性。亚高山草甸土壤全氮含量的异质性远远高于云杉纯林,四个样地中均表现出强的空间自相关性。亚高山草甸样地土壤有机碳和全氮含量均在较大尺度上空间自相关,云杉纯林样地则表现为较小尺度的空间自相关变异。     

辽东山区次生林乔木幼苗分布格局与种间空间关联性

在辽东山区次生林建立4 hm^2样地(200 m×200 m),研究0~50 m尺度范围内乔木幼苗分布格局及种间空间关联性.结果表明:在完全随机零模型下,0~20 m尺度上,95%的树种呈现聚集分布格局;0~16 m尺度上,19个树种呈现聚集分布;随着尺度的增加,聚集分布树种的比例逐渐减少,50 m尺度上,随机分布成为树种分布的主要形式;在异质性泊松过程零模型下,0~24 m尺度上,5%的树种呈现聚集分布,26~50 m尺度上,42%和58%的树种呈现随机和均匀分布.在完全随机零模型下,正相关树种对比例最高,且在50 m尺度下呈现正相关、负相关、无相关3种相关性的树种对比例相同;在异质性泊松过程零模型下,树种对主要呈现负相关,且随尺度增大,负相关的树种对比例逐渐升高.种子扩散限制和生境异质性在某种程度上解释了乔木幼苗的聚集分布格局,乔木幼苗强烈的聚集分布又促使种间空间关联性密切,更新群落稳定性较差.     

海南岛霸王岭热带低地雨林树木的空间格局

树木空间格局及其形成过程是物种共存及生物多样性维持机制研究的一个重要方面。该文以海南岛两个1 hm ²的典型热带低地雨林老龄林森林动态样地为基础, 通过4个点格局模型(均质Poisson过程、异质Poisson过程、均质Thomas过程和异质Thomas过程)模拟扩散限制和生境异质性作用对树木空间分布格局的影响, 并分析不同空间尺度下(< 2 m, 2-5 m, 5-10 m, 10-15 m, 15-20 m和20-25 m)不同作用的相对重要性。结果表明: 热带低地雨林的所有树木总体上呈现聚集分布的空间格局, 随着尺度的增大, 聚集强度逐渐减小。树种在模拟空间分布格局最优模型中的比例由高到低分别是: 均质Thomas过程, 均质Poisson过程、异质Thomas过程和异质Poisson过程。扩散限制作用是形成热带低地雨林树木空间分布格局最重要的生态过程, 其次是完全随机作用以及生境异质性和扩散限制的联合作用, 而生境异质性的作用最小。不同空间尺度上模拟各树种空间分布格局的最优模型比例差异显著, 扩散限制作用能够在多数空间尺度上模拟多个树种的空间分布格局, 其次为随机作用; 生境异质性和扩散限制的联合作用主要在小尺度(0-5 m)影响树种分布, 而生境异质性在较大尺度(15-25 m)上影响树种的空间分布格局。     

不同群落蒙古栎种群空间格局的地统计学分析

以蒙古栎天然次生林中的蒙古栎种群为研究对象,在吉林省汪清林业局塔子沟林场设置2块1 hm^2的处于不同演替阶段的样地(A、B).采用相邻网格调查法将每块样地划分为100个10 m×10 m的调查单元,对单元内每株林木的空间坐标进行精确定位,调查所有胸径≥1 cm的林木基本信息.采用地统计学分析的半方差函数法和分维数对蒙古栎种群各林木属性的空间异质性程度、组成、尺度、方向进行分析;运用克里格插值法对具有空间自相关的树木属性进行无偏估计并绘制分布图,分析其空间分布格局.结果表明:两块样地各林木属性的最优半方差函数以指数模型和球状模型为主,呈聚集分布,但样地A较样地B的空间自相关程度更高,空间连续性更大;两块样地内部,胸径和东西冠幅均表现出较强的空间异质性和空间自相关性.两块样地各林木属性均在南北方向上表现出较强的空间异质性.此外,样地A在西北-东南方向上也存在较强的空间异质性,而样地B则在东北-西南方向存在较强的空间异质性.两者相比,样地A的空间异质性强度更高、尺度更大.样地A中胸径和东西冠幅变异明显,而样地B中东西冠幅和南北冠幅变异明显.分维数值反映的结果与标准半方差函数值的结果基本一致.样地A各林木属性变量以斑块状和条带状分布为主,空间分布格局和变化趋势明显,而样地B各林木属性变量分布破碎,格局复杂.上述结果说明,种群属性特征、群落发育程度、空间尺度大小和空间水平方向可能影响种群的空间格局.基于地统计学的分析方法有助于定量、直观地描述种群的生长现状和发展趋势,可为东北林区大面积的蒙古栎天然次生林的可持续经营提供理论基础.     

关帝山云杉次生林树木径向生长的空间关联及其影响因子

以关帝山4 hm²云杉次生林样地为研究对象,按照CTFS(Center for Tropical Forest Science)技术规范对样地树木进行连续定位监测。利用2010至2015年间样地主要树种生长量观测数据,结合地形、土壤等环境因子调查及采样测定数据,分析了树木种群径向生长的空间关联性及其随生境的变化,并探讨了树木种群径向生长的影响因素。结果表明,青杄、华北落叶松、红桦、白桦和辽东栎为云杉次生林主要树种,在样地4个生境型(山脊生境、低海拔缓坡生境、高海拔缓坡生境、低洼地陡坡生境)中均有分布且呈现不同的径级结构。标记相关函数分析显示,同一生境型中,5树种径向生长的空间关联性各异;对于同一树种,径向生长的空间自相关性不仅具有尺度依赖性,同时生境型的不同导致树木径向生长的空间关联性发生变化。线性混合效应模型分析显示,初始胸径对树木径向生长的显著正效应在样地各类生境型的所有种群中普遍存在;生物因子对树木径向生长的显著影响只在特定生境型的青杄种群中被检测到,表明树木径向生长受同种邻体影响,但其影响显著性因树种而异;环境因子中,海拔和凹凸度对树木径向生长呈显著负效应...     

辽东山区次生林木本植物空间分布

森林木本植物的空间格局有助于揭示群落结构的形成机制与潜在的生态学过程,且对林分经营具有一定指导意义。在0—50 m尺度范围内综合分析了辽东山区4 hm2温带次生林样地多度10的树种空间格局。研究发现:(1)在完全随机零模型下,大部分树种呈现聚集格局,聚集格局树种的比例随尺度增加而降低;在32 m的较大尺度下,随尺度增加,随机和规则格局成为树种分布的主要形式;(2)在异质性泊松过程零模型下,55.9%的树种呈现随机格局,其余大部分树种在10 m的尺度下呈现聚集格局,且随尺度增加,规则格局成为主要形式;(3)在完全随机零模型下,树种属性(林层、径级和多度)显著地影响种群聚集度,而在异质性泊松过程零模型下,树种属性对种群聚集度不存在显著影响。综上,生境异质性、扩散限制和树种属性部分解释了辽东山区次生林木本植物空间分布格局,相对而言,生境异质性的效应更为突出。研究结果有助于揭示次生林群落生物多样性的维持机制。     

采伐干扰对帽儿山地区天然次生林土壤表层温度空间异质性的影响

研究了不同强度采伐干扰对土壤表层（3～5 cm）温度空间异质性和空间格局的影响.在帽儿山地区天然次生林内,设置3块不同强度采伐干扰处理样地: A（对照）、B（按基面积的50%随机采伐）和C（皆伐）,分别布设不同空间距离 (0.5～56 m)的取样点160、154和154个,比较了干扰以后2年内春季和夏季（共4次）土壤表层温度的空间异质性和空间格局特征.结果表明,森林采伐后,土壤表层平均温度显著增加（相差0.6～4.2 ℃,P＜0.001）,与干扰强度存在一定程度正相关,温度波动范围加大.采伐干扰导致土壤表层温度空间异质性程度和变异尺度增加,并随干扰强度加大而增大,小尺度上的空间异质性也出现增加现象,但土壤温度空间变异尺度主要体现在＜20 m范围内,空间异质性组成受干扰影响较小.经Kriging法对土壤表层温度空间格局模拟,发现采伐干扰样地土壤表层温度的空间格局强度较对照林地大,温度等值线密集,其差异春季比夏季明显.采伐干扰样地的年际间相同季节土壤表层温度格局较相似,而对照样地则呈较均匀的分布格局.     

荒漠绿洲过渡带植被空间异质性的可塑性面积单元问题

 以荒漠绿洲过渡带植被为研究对象,采用地统计理论与方法,以优势植物泡泡刺(Nitraria sphaerocarpa)和红砂(Reaumuria soongorica)种群为例,采用一个样地内2 500个10 m×10 m小样方中获取的植物盖度数据来研究采样尺度和划区方式对荒漠植被空间异质性的影响。其中尺度效应研究的思路是：一是保持粒度（样方）不变,增加幅度（样地）分析其对空间异质性的影响;二是保持幅度不变,改变粒度进行分析。划区效应是在样地尺度（500 m×500 m）上,把整块样地数据聚合成10 m×200 m、20 m×100 m、40 m×50 m、50 m×40 m、100 m×20 m和200 m×10 m等不同形状和不同方向的网格进行地统计分析。结果表明：荒漠绿洲过渡带植被空间异质性受采样尺度和划区方式影响显著。当样地面积小于200 m×200 m 时,所获取的数据不能真实反映泡泡刺种群的空间异质性;当样地面积小于100 m×100 m 时,所获取的数据不能真实反映红砂种群的空间异质性。调查泡泡刺和红砂种群的空间格局时,样方面积在20 m×20 m到30 m×30 m较为合适。植被空间异质性参数对划区方式的敏感性较强,其中泡泡刺种群的敏感性高于红砂种群。     

浙江省典型天然次生林主要树种空间分布格局及其关联性

松阔混交林和常绿阔叶林是亚热带地区天然次生林代表性的森林类型,通过研究主要树种分布变动趋势,可以有效地指导森林经营措施。在该地区4个1hm~2典型样地,在0—30m尺度范围内综合分析了主要树种的空间分布格局及种间关联性,并对同一树种分发育阶段在不同森林群落中的种群空间分布格局进行了比较,以探讨亚热带地区天然次生林群落空间格局形成和种群维持机制。样地1和2为松阔混交林,其中样地1的马尾松密度较低,样地3和4为常绿阔叶林。研究结果表明:(1)以完全随机模型为零假设时,样地1的主要种群在小尺度(10 m)呈聚集分布,随尺度增加呈随机分布;样地2—4的主要种群在所有尺度呈聚集分布,随尺度增加聚集强度逐渐减弱;以异质泊松模型为零假设时,4个样地的主要种群在大部分尺度呈随机分布;(2)青冈和苦槠的小树(5.0 cm≤DBH10.0 cm)在4样地的所有尺度以聚集分布为主,大树(DBH≥10.0 cm)在松阔混交林样地呈随机分布趋势,但在常绿阔叶林样地青冈在0—20 m尺度、苦槠在所有尺度呈聚集分布;(3)松阔混交林中建群种马尾松和其他树种的种间关联性,在样地1的小尺度为负相关,随尺度增加为不相关,在样地2的所有尺度为负相关;常绿阔叶林中建群种青冈和其他树种的种间关联性在在样地3的小尺度为负相关,随尺度增加为不相关,在样地4的所有尺度为负相关;所有伴生树种的种间关联性以负相关为主。结果说明,种群空间分布格局及其关联性随群落结构和空间尺度的不同而出现变化,在松阔混交林和常绿阔叶林群落格局形成中除了扩散限制和生境异质性以外,密度制约机制在松阔混交林中发挥了重要作用,而在常绿阔叶林中其作用随着树木生活史阶段的提高而减弱。     

Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China

Aim Predictions of ecosystem responses to climate warming are often made using gap models, which are among the most effective tools for assessing the effects of climate change on forest composition and structure. Gap models do not generally account for broad‐scale effects such as the spatial configuration of the simulated forest ecosystems, disturbance, and seed dispersal, which extend beyond the simulation plots and are important under changing climates. In this study we incorporate the broad‐scale spatial effects (spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance) in simulating forest responses to climate warming. We chose the Changbai Natural Reserve in China as our study area. Our aim is to reveal the spatial effects in simulating forest responses to climate warming and make new predictions by incorporating these effects in the Changbai Natural Reserve. Location Changbai Natural Reserve, north‐eastern China. Method We used a coupled modelling approach that links a gap model with a spatially explicit landscape model. In our approach, the responses (establishment) of individual species to climate warming are simulated using a gap model (linkages ) that has been utilized previously for making predictions in this region; and the spatial effects are simulated using a landscape model (LANDIS) that incorporates spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance. We used the recent predictions of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) for the Changbai Mountain area (4.6 °C average annual temperature increase and little precipitation change). For the area encompassed by the simulation, we examined four major ecosystems distributed continuously from low to high elevations along the northern slope: hardwood forest, mixed Korean pine hardwood forest, spruce‐fir forest, and sub‐alpine forest. Results The dominant effects of climate warming were evident on forest ecosystems in the low and high elevation areas, but not in the mid‐elevation areas. This suggests that the forest ecosystems near the southern and northern ranges of their distributions will have the strongest response to climate warming. In the mid‐elevation areas, environmental controls exerted the dominant influence on the dynamics of these forests (e.g. spruce‐fir) and their resilience to climate warming was suggested by the fact that the fluctuations of species trajectories for these forests under the warming scenario paralleled those under the current climate scenario. Main conclusions With the spatial effects incorporated, the disappearance of tree species in this region due to the climate warming would not be expected within the 300‐year period covered by the simulation. Neither Korean pine nor spruce‐fir was completely replaced by broadleaf species during the simulation period. Even for the sub‐alpine forest, mountain birch did not become extinct under the climate warming scenario, although its occurrence was greatly reduced. However, the decreasing trends characterizing Korean pine, spruce, and fir indicate that in simulations beyond 300 years these species could eventually be replaced by broadleaf tree species. A complete forest transition would take much longer than the time periods predicted by the gap models.     

A role-type model (rope) and its application in assessing climate change impacts on forest landscapes

Gap-phase replacement is a general phenomenon found in forest ecosystems, worldwide. Different tree species can be expected to produce different sizes of gaps when they die. Species also vary in their regeneration success in gaps of different sizes. In this paper, the gap-phase interactions among tree species in a forest stand are simulated by a role-type stand model called ROPE. By incorporation of environmental effects on tree height, ROPE can simulate forest composition and stand leaf area under different climate conditions. The model was developed for forest ecosystems in northeastern China and was used to simulate the forest landscape structures under current climate conditions and under four climate change scenarios for greenhouse gas related warming. These scenarios were obtained from general circulation models developed by different atmospheric research centers. Korean pinebroadleaf mixed forest and larch forest are the major stand types in the study area under present conditions. Under the four climate change scenarios, Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forest would be expected to occur only on the higher parts of large mountains. Larch forest only would be found north of the study area. Broadleaf forest would become the dominant vegetation over the study area. Use of the Kappa statistic to test for similarity in spatial maps, indicates that each climate change scenario would result in a significant change of forest distributions.Supported by The United States National Science Foundation Grant BSR-8702333 to University of Virginia.     

长白山次生杨桦林种群空间点格局及密度制约效应

以长白山5.2 hm²次生杨桦林样地为研究对象,利用空间点格局分析的双相关函数g（r）以及随机标签零模型和案例-对照设计法,探讨了树木种群空间格局及其密度制约效应。研究结果表明：生境异质性对不同生活型以及不同树种的成熟个体在大尺度范围上具有强烈影响。剔除生境异质性带来的影响后,在14个常见树种中有12个树种在小尺度上呈显著的空间聚集分布格局;随着空间尺度的增加聚集性分布树种数量急剧下降,在18 m尺度上聚集率下降到0。全部14个常见树种均呈现出显著的密度制约效应,表明密度制约是调节温带森林树木种群空间结构的主要作用机制。此外,密度制约与物种多度呈负相关,与亚林层和灌木层树种的同种聚集强度呈正相关。并且随着空间尺度增大受密度制约影响的树种百分比逐渐减小,14个常见树种中有11个在0-1 m处达到最大的密度制约强度。     

Reconciling the influence of global climate phenomena on macrofaunal temporal dynamics at a variety of spatial scales

Determining the relative importance of environmental forces on population dynamics is a fundamental question for ecologists. Growing concern over the ecological effects of climate change emphasizes the importance of defining whether broad-scale environmental forces uniformly act upon local populations (hierarchy theory) or cross-scale interactions influence local responses (multiscale theory). This study analyses 13 years of data on species abundances at six sites within a large harbour to determine the effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Environmental variables both directly and indirectly related to ENSO were observed to be important predictors of the temporal dynamics of abundance in many species, but the observed effects were not consistent across sites or species. While nearly all species were affected by large temporal and spatial scale variability, smaller temporal scale, location-specific environmental variables (such as wind-generated wave exposure and turbidity) were also generally important, increasing the variability explained by our models by up to 25%. As with many other broad-scale variables, generality of response to ENSO is affected by interactions across time and space with smaller scale heterogeneity. This study therefore suggests that the degree of interaction between broad-scale climatic factors, such as ENSO, with smaller scale variability, will determine the consistency of responses over large spatial scales, and control our ability to predict effects of climate change on coastal and estuarine communities.     

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognised at local scales, but its importance for plant species distributions at larger spatial scales has generally been ignored. Tree cover modifies the local abiotic conditions below the canopy, notably by reducing light availability, and thus, also the performance of species that are not adapted to low‐light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains, by affecting colonisation probabilities and local extinction risks of herbs and shrubs. To assess the effect of tree cover at both the plot‐ and landscape‐grain sizes (approximately 10‐m and 1‐km), we fit generalised linear models (GLMs) for the plot‐level distributions of 960 species of herbs and shrubs using 6935 vegetation plots across the European Alps. We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) at both spatial grains for each species. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot‐ and landscape‐grain tree cover on plot‐level plant communities. Finally, the effects on species‐specific elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species distributions under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved the model performance, with the probability of the presence of shade‐tolerant species increasing with increasing tree cover, whereas shade‐intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both the plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit most strongly at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot‐level plant communities. With high tree cover, shade‐intolerant species exhibited narrower elevational ranges than with low tree cover whereas shade‐tolerant species showed wider elevational ranges. These findings suggest that forecasts of climate‐related range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modified by tree cover dynamics.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.     

Spatial heterogeneity of tree diversity response to climate warming in montane forests

Many studies reported biotic change along a continental warming gradient. However, the temporal and spatial change of tree diversity and their sensitivity to climate warming might differ from region to region. Understanding of the variation among studies with regard to the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal, especially in montane ecosystems. Our aim is to better understand changes in spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of mountain tree communities under climate warming over the past four decades. In 2017, we resurveyed and recorded all tree species from 107 long‐term monitoring plots that were first studied between 1974 and 1976. These plots were located in montane forests in the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP), China. Our results showed that spatial differences were found in tree species diversity changes response to mean annual temperature change over the past four decades. Tree species richness increased significantly under climate warming in Minshan (MS) and Xiaoxiangling (XXL) with higher warming rate than Qionglai (QLS) and Liangshan (LS). The trees species diversity in MS and XXL were more sensitive to climatic warming. MS and XXL should receive priority protection in the next conservation plan of the GPNP. The GPNP should avoid taking a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach for diversity conservation due to spatial heterogeneity in plant community dynamics.     

气候变化和林火干扰对大兴安岭林区地上生物量影响的动态模拟

预测森林地上生物量对气候变化和林火干扰的响应是陆地生态系统碳循环研究的重要内容,气温、降水等因素的改变和气候变暖导致林火干扰强度的变化将会影响森林生态系统的碳库动态.东北森林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化和林火干扰的响应逐渐显现.本文运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化对大兴安岭森林地上生物量的影响,并比较分析了气候变暖对森林地上生物量的直接影响与通过林火干扰强度改变所产生的影响.结果表明: 未来气候变暖和火干扰增强情景下,森林地上生物量增加;当前气候条件和火干扰下,研究区森林地上生物量为(97.14±5.78) t·hm^-2;在B1F2预案下,森林地上生物量均值为(97.93±5.83) t·hm^-2;在A2F3预案下,景观水平第100～150和150～200年模拟时期内的森林地上生物量均值较高,分别为(100.02±3.76)和(110.56±4.08) t·hm^-2.与当前火干扰相比,CF2预案(当前火干扰增加30%)在一定时期使景观水平地上生物量增加(0.56±1.45) t·hm^-2,CF3预案(当前火干扰增加230%)在整个模拟阶段使地上生物量减少(7.39±1.79) t·hm^-2.针叶、阔叶树种对气候变暖的响应存在差异,兴安落叶松和白桦生物量随气候变暖表现为降低趋势,而樟子松、云杉和山杨的地上生物量则随气候变暖表现出不同程度的增加;气候变暖对针阔树种的直接影响具有时滞性,针叶树种响应时间比阔叶树种迟25～50年.研究区森林对高CO₂排放情景下气候变暖和高强度火干扰的共同作用较为敏感,未来将明显改变研究区森林生态系统的树种组成和结构.