Detecting decline in a formerly widespread species: how common is the common blue butterfly Polyommatus icarus?

Grid square distribution maps have been used widely to measure rates of decline and target conservation resources. However, common species that may have many populations per grid square can decline substantially from within squares without being lost from entire squares. In order to quantify this process, fine scale population and habitat data have been collected for the common blue butterfly Polyommatus icarus in a 35 km² area of fragmented landscape in north Wales. Present day habitat associations, determined from over 2000 transect walks, combined with data on historical and present day habitat distributions reveal that the species has declined by about 74% since 1901. Similar data concerning the species major host plant Lotus corniculatus indicate a decline of 46%. Based on 1 km² grid maps, neither species have been assessed as declining at all. These results suggest that apparently 'common' species may have declined just as much as many of Britain's rare species: using present methods of assessment these declines are undetected.     

Local and landscape effects on butterfly density in northern Idaho grasslands and forests

Understanding butterfly response to landscape context can inform conservation management and planning. We tested whether local-scale resources (host and nectar plants, canopy cover) or landscape context, measured at two scales, better explained the densities of four butterfly species. The density of Coenonympha tullia, which has host plants strongly associated with grassland habitats, was positively correlated with the amount of grassland in 0.5- and 1-km radius landscapes and only occurred in forests when they bordered grasslands. For the other species, Celastrina ladon, Cupido amyntula, and Vanessa cardui, local-scale resources better explained butterfly densities, emphasizing the importance of local habitat quality for butterflies. These three species also used host plants that were distributed more heterogeneously within and among habitat types. Our findings demonstrate the importance of host plant spatial distributions when determining the scale at which butterfly density relates to resources, and we recommend that both these distributions and landscape context be evaluated when developing butterfly monitoring programs, managing for species of concern, or modeling potential habitat.     

Movement patterns of Rhyssomatus lineaticollis Say (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) within and among Asclepias syriaca (Asclepiadaceae) patches in a fragmented landscape

Abstract.  1. Dispersal capabilities of organisms are critical in determining the landscape population structure of species as well as their likelihood of survival in fragmented landscapes. Using mark–recapture techniques on the monophagous weevil Rhyssomatus lineaticollis Say (Curculionidae), within- and between-patch dispersal capabilities, landscape level population structure, and the role of beetle density and host patch characteristics in setting distances, amounts, and timing of dispersal were studied.
2. The data indicate that R. lineaticollis is sedentary, with 50% of recaptured beetles moving < 1 m and the maximum distance moved < 1 km. Within- and between-patch movement of beetles was unrelated to host plant patch characteristics and beetle densities.
3. Despite limited dispersal, R. lineaticollis probably functions as a patchy population in east-central Iowa, U.S.A. because dispersals between patches are common and because all host patches surveyed contained this herbivore, indicating a lack of suitable vacant patches, a prerequisite for metapopulation structure.
4. Between-patch distances are well within the dispersal capabilities of R. lineaticollis , although this may be the result of an increase in the density of patches of its host, Asclepias syriaca , in the landscape over the last 150 years as a result of human disturbance and this species' weedy habit.
5. Metapopulation structure in monophagous prairie herbivores may be most likely in species whose non-weedy host plants form highly predictable resources in space and time, but which are now widely scattered in habitat fragments.     

Body mass explains characteristic scales of habitat selection in terrestrial mammals

Niche theory in its various forms is based on those environmental factors that permit species persistence, but less work has focused on defining the extent, or size, of a species' environment: the area that explains a species' presence at a point in space. We proposed that this habitat extent is identifiable from a characteristic scale of habitat selection, the spatial scale at which habitat best explains species' occurrence. We hypothesized that this scale is predicted by body size. We tested this hypothesis on 12 sympatric terrestrial mammal species in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. For each species, habitat models varied across the 20 spatial scales tested. For six species, we found a characteristic scale; this scale was explained by species' body mass in a quadratic relationship. Habitat measured at large scales best-predicted habitat selection in both large and small species, and small scales predict habitat extent in medium-sized species. The relationship between body size and habitat selection scale implies evolutionary adaptation to landscape heterogeneity as the driver of scale-dependent habitat selection.     

Local extinction of British farmland birds and the prediction of further loss

1.  The populations of many UK farmland birds declined between 1970 and 1990, frequently accompanied by contractions in breeding ranges. Ornithological atlas data, land use data and environmental data at the scale of 10-km squares were used to investigate the relationship between local extinctions and habitat suitability for six species, and to predict where future losses are most likely.
2.  For each species we tested the hypothesis that local extinctions were concentrated in environments that were inherently less suitable. We also tested the hypothesis that spatial patterns of loss were not independent between species due to their concurrence in the same habitats.
3.  Multivariate analyses (PCA) showed that areas where each species became extinct between 1970 and 1990 were more similar in land use type, climate and topography to areas where a species was never present than those where it was retained; local extinction was more likely in less suitable environments. Multiple logistic regression showed that for five of the six species the environmental gradient best predicting presence or absence in 1970 was also that best predicting loss between 1970 and 1990. For the six species studied, local extinctions were least likely in lowland arable areas.
4.  For any pair of species, local extinctions were more frequent outside the area of overlap of the two species' ranges than inside. Within the area of overlap, species tended to be lost from the same squares. For each species, likelihood of local extinction declined with increasing number of the other five species present.
5.  We used model parameters to map the probability of future local extinctions of the six species considered, allowing the identification of key areas for conservation management at a spatial scale appropriate to agri-economic incentives.     

Dynamic distribution modelling: predicting the present from the past

Confidence in projections of the future distributions of species requires demonstration that recently-observed changes could have been predicted adequately. Here we use a dynamic model framework to demonstrate that recently-observed changes at the expanding northern boundaries of three British butterfly species can be predicted with good accuracy. Previous work established that the distributions of the study species currently lag behind climate change, and so we presumed that climate is not currently a major constraint at the northern range margins of our study species. We predicted 1970–2000 distribution changes using a colonisation model, MIGRATE, superimposed on a high-resolution map of habitat availability. Thirty-year rates and patterns of distribution change could be accurately predicted for each species (κ goodness-of-fit of models >0.64 for all three species, corresponding to >83% of grid cells correctly assigned), using a combination of individual species traits, species-specific habitat associations and distance-dependent dispersal. Sensitivity analyses showed that population productivity was the most important determinant of the rate of distribution expansion (variation in dispersal rate was not studied because the species are thought to be similar in dispersal capacity), and that each species' distribution prior to expansion was critical in determining the spatial pattern of the current distribution. In future, modelling approaches that combine climate suitability and spatially-explicit population models, incorporating demographic variables and habitat availability, are likely to be valuable tools in projecting species' responses to climatic change and hence in anticipating management to facilitate species' dispersal and persistence.     

Identifying multiscale habitat factors influencing koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) occurrence and management in Ballarat, Victoria, Australia

Summary   Modelling for the conservation of koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus ) populations has primarily focused on natural habitat variables (e.g. tree species, soil types and soil moisture). Until recently, limited consideration has been given to modelling the effects of the landscape context (e.g. habitat area, habitat configuration and roads). Yet, the combined influence of natural habitats and anthropogenic impacts at multiple spatial scales are likely to be important determinants of where koala populations occur and remain viable in human-modified landscapes. The study tested the importance of multiscale habitat variables on koala occurrence in Ballarat, Victoria, Australia. The models focused at three spatial scales: site ( <  1 ha), patch (1–100 ha), and landscape (100–1000 s ha). Logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses were used to rank alternative models and key explanatory variables.
The results showed that an increased likelihood of koala presence in fragmented landscapes in the urban–forest interface (as opposed to larger blocks of forest habitat) can best be explained by the positive effects of soil fertility and the presence of preferred koala tree species in these fragmented areas. If koalas are to be effectively conserved in Ballarat, it is critical to (i) protect remaining core areas of high-quality habitat, including regenerating areas; (ii) protect scattered habitat patches which provide connectivity; and (iii) develop and implement habitat restoration programmes to improve habitat connectivity and enhance opportunities for safe koala movement between habitat patches intersected by main roads.     

Determinants of distribution and abundance in the clouded apollo butterfly: a landscape ecological approach

Recent studies on the determinants of distribution and abundance of animals at landscape level have emphasized the usefulness of the metapopulation approach, in which patch area and habitat connectivity have often proved to explain satisfactorily existing patch occupancy patterns. A different approach is needed to study the common situation in which suitable habitat is difficult to determine or does not occur in well‐defined habitat patches. We applied a landscape ecological approach to study the determinants of distribution and abundance of the threatened clouded apollo Parnassius mnemosyne butterfly within an area of 6 km² of agricultural landscape in south‐western Finland. The relative role of 24 environmental variables potentially affecting the distribution and abundance of the butterfly was studied using a spatial grid system with 2408 grid squares of 0.25 ha, of which 349 were occupied by the clouded apollo. Both the probability of butterfly presence and abundance in a 0.25 ha square increased with the presence of the larval host plant Corydalis solida the cover of semi‐natural grassland, the amount of solar radiation and spalial autocorrelation in butterfly occurrence. Additionally, butterfly abundance increased with overall mean patch size and decreased with maximum slope angle and wind speed. Two advantages of the employment of a spatial grid system included the avoidance of a subjective definition of suitable habitat patches and an evaluation of the relative significance of different components of habitat quality at the same time with habitat availability and connectivity. The large variation in habitat quality was influenced by the abundance of the larval host plant and adult nectar sources but also by climatological. topographical and structural factors. The application of a spatial grid system as used here has potential for a wide use in studies on landscape‐level distribution and abundance patterns in species with complex habitat requirements and habitat availability patterns.     

Effect of Landscape Structure on Species Diversity

The effects of habitat fragmentation and their implications for biodiversity is a central issue in conservation biology which still lacks an overall comprehension. There is not yet a clear consensus on how to quantify fragmentation even though it is quite common to couple the effects of habitat loss with habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Here we address the spatial patterns of species distribution in fragmented landscapes, assuming a neutral community model. To build up the fragmented landscapes, we employ the fractional Brownian motion approach, which in turn permits us to tune the amount of habitat loss and degree of clumping of the landscape independently. The coupling between the neutral community model, here simulated by means of the coalescent method, and fractal neutral landscape models enables us to address how the species–area relationship changes as the spatial patterns of a landscape is varied. The species–area relationship is one of the most fundamental laws in ecology, considered as a central tool in conservation biology, and is used to predict species loss following habitat disturbances. Our simulation results indicate that the level of clumping has a major role in shaping the species–area relationship. For instance, more compact landscapes are more sensitive to the effects of habitat loss and speciation rate. Besides, the level of clumping determines the existence and extension of the power-law regime which is expected to hold at intermediate scales. The distributions of species abundance are strongly influenced by the degree of fragmentation. We also show that the first and second commonest species have approximately self-similar spatial distributions across scales, with the fractal dimensions of the support of the first and second commonest species being very robust to changes in the spatial patterns of the landscape.     

Determinants of the biogeographical distribution of butterflies in boreal regions

Aim  We explored the relative contributions of climatic and land-cover factors in explaining the distribution patterns of butterflies in a boreal region.
Location  Finland, northern Europe.
Methods  Data from a national butterfly atlas survey carried out during 1991–2003, with a 10-km grain grid system, were used in these analyses. We used generalized additive models (GAM) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) to explore the main environmental correlates (climate and land-cover) of the realized niches of 98 butterfly species. The accuracy of the distribution models (GAMs) was validated by resubstitution and cross-validation approaches, using the area under the curve (AUC) derived from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots.
Results  Predictive accuracies of the 98 individual environment–butterfly models varied from low to very high (cross-validated AUC values 0.48–0.99), with a mean of 0.79. The results of both the GAM and HP analyses were broadly concordant. Most of the variation in butterfly distributions is associated with growing degree-days, mean temperature of the coldest month and cover of built-up area in all six phylogenetic groups (butterfly families). There were no statistically significant differences in predictive accuracy among the different butterfly families.
Main conclusions  About three-quarters of the distributions of butterfly species in Finland appear to be governed principally by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors. This indicates that many butterfly species may respond rapidly to the projected climate change in boreal regions. By determining the ecological niches of multiple species, we can project their range shifts in response to changes in climate and land-cover, and identify species that are particularly sensitive to forecasted global changes.