气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

气候变化和林火干扰对大兴安岭林区地上生物量影响的动态模拟

预测森林地上生物量对气候变化和林火干扰的响应是陆地生态系统碳循环研究的重要内容,气温、降水等因素的改变和气候变暖导致林火干扰强度的变化将会影响森林生态系统的碳库动态.东北森林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化和林火干扰的响应逐渐显现.本文运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化对大兴安岭森林地上生物量的影响,并比较分析了气候变暖对森林地上生物量的直接影响与通过林火干扰强度改变所产生的影响.结果表明: 未来气候变暖和火干扰增强情景下,森林地上生物量增加;当前气候条件和火干扰下,研究区森林地上生物量为(97.14±5.78) t·hm^-2;在B1F2预案下,森林地上生物量均值为(97.93±5.83) t·hm^-2;在A2F3预案下,景观水平第100～150和150～200年模拟时期内的森林地上生物量均值较高,分别为(100.02±3.76)和(110.56±4.08) t·hm^-2.与当前火干扰相比,CF2预案(当前火干扰增加30%)在一定时期使景观水平地上生物量增加(0.56±1.45) t·hm^-2,CF3预案(当前火干扰增加230%)在整个模拟阶段使地上生物量减少(7.39±1.79) t·hm^-2.针叶、阔叶树种对气候变暖的响应存在差异,兴安落叶松和白桦生物量随气候变暖表现为降低趋势,而樟子松、云杉和山杨的地上生物量则随气候变暖表现出不同程度的增加;气候变暖对针阔树种的直接影响具有时滞性,针叶树种响应时间比阔叶树种迟25～50年.研究区森林对高CO₂排放情景下气候变暖和高强度火干扰的共同作用较为敏感,未来将明显改变研究区森林生态系统的树种组成和结构.     

气候变化、林火和采伐对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响

大兴安岭林区林火发生的频率受气候变化的影响将会增加,可能会增加该地区森林生态系统碳损失.本研究通过耦合森林生态系统模型和森林景观模型以模拟未来百年大兴安岭森林碳储量动态变化,量化气候变化、林火和采伐对森林碳储量的影响.结果表明: 虽然采伐和林火会抵消相当一部分由气候变化增加的碳储量,但气候变化仍然能够增加大兴安岭森林碳储量.未来100年该地区森林地上和土壤有机碳储量将会分别增加9%～22%和6%～9%.短期(0～20年)气候变化对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响大于同期林火的影响,中期(30～50年)和长期(60～100年)气候变化对森林碳储量的影响小于林火和采伐的影响.由于未来大兴安岭地区气候变化及其林火干扰存在不确定性,导致未来该地区森林碳储量存在较大的不确定性.未来100年大兴安岭森林地上碳储量和土壤有机碳储量不确定性分别为12.4%～16.2%和6.6%～10.4%.为准确估算我国北方森林生态系统碳储量,需要考虑种子传播、林火和采伐的影响.     

气候变化条件下小兴安岭林区森林采伐面积模拟

运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS6.0PRO,以采伐面积代替蓄积量作为采伐量,模拟了气候变化条件下,不同采伐强度交替采伐(交替时间分别为10、20、30年)情况下小兴安岭地区2000—2400年间当前采伐方案和11组模拟采伐预案下的森林采伐面积比.结果表明:不同采伐强度的交替进行,一定程度上可以增加研究区采伐面积;与当前采伐方案相比,短期内(10～30年),研究区模拟预案下每10年的采伐面积将增加3%～5%,中期(40～60年)内,研究区模拟预案下每10年的采伐面积将增加2.5%～7%,长期(70～100年)内,研究区模拟预案下每10年的采伐面积将增加3.5%～8%.总体上,研究区当前总采伐面积仍然过高,改变采伐模式虽然可以在一段时间内增加采伐面积,但不具有可持续性.若使研究区森林可持续发展,还需降低采伐强度、转变森林经营管理理念,变可持续林业产出为森林生态系统可持续管理.     

大兴安岭呼中林区虫害与火干扰交互作用的长期模拟

虫害和林火是森林生态系统的两种主要干扰类型,各种干扰在大时空尺度上存在一定的交互作用.本文采用空间直观景观模型LANDIS模拟虫害和林火在300年内的交互作用.结果表明:虫害干扰降低了细可燃物载量,提高了模拟前期(0～100 a)和中期(100～200 a)的粗可燃物载量,降低了模拟前期和中期的林火频率,不同干扰预案模拟后期(200～300 a)火烧频率的结果比较接近;虫害干扰降低了模拟前期和后期的火烧强度,增加了模拟中期的火烧强度,提高了模拟中期的森林火险等级,降低了模拟前期和后期的火险等级.人类灭火可增加虫害的发生面积,因此建议森林管理部门采取适当的防虫措施,不可只注重灭火,可以采取可燃物去除和计划火烧等方式管理林火,促进森林生态系统的可持续发展.     

林火干扰对大兴安岭主要林分类型地上生物量预测的影响模拟研究

林火干扰是北方森林最主要的自然干扰之一,对北方森林地上生物量影响是一个长期的过程。因此,在预测地上生物量动态变化时需要考虑林火的影响。运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟大兴安岭林区林火对不同树种地上生物量预测的影响。选取研究区5种主要树种林分(兴安落叶松、樟子松、云杉、白桦和山杨),以无干扰情景为参考预案,在验证模型模拟结果的基础上,模拟林火在短期(0—50a)、中期(50—150a)和长期(150—300a)对地上生物量的定量化影响,及其对不同立地类型地上生物量的动态变化。结果表明:(1)基于森林调查数据参数化的2000年森林景观模拟结果能够较好地代表2000年真实森林景观,模拟的2010年森林林分密度和胸高断面积与2010年森林调查数据无显著性差异(P0.05),当前林火干扰机制模拟结果能够较好地与样地调查数据匹配,说明林火模拟能够代表当前研究区林火发生情况;(2)与无干扰预案相比,整个模拟时期内景观水平上林火减少了1.7—5.9 t/hm2地上生物量;(3)与无干扰预案相比,林火预案下主要树种生物量在短期、中期和长期变化显著(P0.05);(4)在不同模拟时期,林火显著地改变了地上生物量空间分布,其中以亚高山区地上生物量降低最为明显。研究可为长期森林管理以及森林可持续发展提供参考。     

大兴安岭北部森林景观对气候变化的响应

将森林景观模型LANDIS和林窗模型LINKAGES相结合,模拟气候变化对大兴安岭森林景观的影响,并比较分析了气候变化对森林景观的直接影响与通过火干扰改变所产生的影响.结果表明:维持当前气候和火干扰情景的条件下,森林景观保持动态平衡,兴安落叶松占据优势树种地位,未来气候情景下,兴安落叶松和偃松的分布面积降低,白桦、山杨、甜杨和钻天柳等阔叶树以及樟子松的分布面积增加,森林景观的破碎化和多样性增加;气候变化对森林景观的影响具有时滞性和长期性,气候变暖有利于大部分树种(兴安落叶松除外)的生长,火干扰增加使山杨、甜杨和钻天柳等分布面积增加,使兴安落叶松、樟子松和偃松的分布面积明显降低;火干扰增加对森林景观的影响几乎与气候变化的直接影响同等重要,其加剧了气候变化对森林组成、森林景观破碎化和森林景观多样性的直接影响.     

森林采伐方式对森林景观的影响模拟——以大兴安岭呼中林区为例

干扰对森林景观变化的影响是一个长期的过程,传统的定位观测很难探究大空间尺度上干扰对森林景观的长期影响,模型模拟是目前常用的研究方法.本研究采用空间直观景观模型(LANDIS),模拟大兴安岭呼中林区在无采伐、皆伐、渐伐和择伐共4种预案下300年内森林景观的长期动态变化.选取落叶松和白桦为典型代表,以平均斑块面积、物种面积比例、聚集度以及年龄结构为指标,探讨不同采伐方式对森林景观的长期影响.结果表明:采伐降低了落叶松的面积比例,提高了白桦的面积比例,不同采伐方式之间差异不明显;采伐降低了落叶松的聚集度,提高了白桦的聚集度,皆伐预案高于其他预案;采伐在模拟前期降低了落叶松的平均斑块面积,提高了白桦的平均斑块面积;采伐提高了落叶松和白桦的中幼龄林比例,皆伐预案下白桦中幼龄林面积增加最明显.采伐使森林生态景观破碎化,皆伐预案下森林景观破碎化最为严重.建议,在采伐强度相同的条件下,尽量采用择伐方式,降低森林采伐对森林生态系统的影响,进而促进森林生态系统健康稳定的发展.     

大兴安岭人为火发生影响因素及气候变化下的趋势

我国重要的北方针叶林地区大兴安岭是林火高发地区.受气候变暖影响,该地区林火发生频率将会发生显著变化.模拟人为火的发生分布与影响因素之间的关系、加强气候变化下人为火的发生分布预测,对于林火管理和减少森林碳损失具有重要作用.本文采用点格局分析方法,基于大兴安岭1967—2006年的火烧数据,建立人为火空间分布与影响因素之间的关系模型,该模型以林火发生次数为因变量,选取非生物因子(年均温和降水量、坡度、坡向和海拔)、生物因子(植被类型)和人为活动因子(距离道路距离、距离居民点距离、道路密度)共9个因子为自变量.并采用RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5气候情景数据代替当前气候情景预测2050年大兴安岭人为火的空间分布状况.结果表明: 点格局模型能够较好地模拟人为火发生分布与空间变量的关系,可以预测未来气候下人为火的发生概率.其中,气候因子对人为火的发生具有明显的控制作用,植被类型、海拔和人为活动等因子对人为火的发生也具有重要影响.林火发生预测结果表明,未来气候变化下,南部地区的林火发生概率将进一步增加,北部和沿主要道路干线附近将成为新的人为火高发区.与当前相比,2050年大兴安岭人为火的发生概率将增加72.2%～166.7%.在未来气候情景下,人为火的发生更多受气候和人为活动因素的控制.     

落叶松毛虫对大兴安岭呼中林区森林的景观长期影响模拟

应用空间直观景观模型(LANDIS)模拟了落叶松毛虫对呼中林区森林景观的长期影响,利用统计软件APACK计算了落叶松毛虫、代表性树种的分布面积以及反映物种分布格局的聚集度指数和森林斑块的平均面积,模拟了300年(1990—2290年)内有无落叶松毛虫干扰预案下大兴安岭呼中林区森林景观的动态变化.结果表明:研究区落叶松毛虫的分布面积呈先增加后降低的趋势;在落叶松毛虫干扰预案下,落叶松在模拟前150年的分布面积、平均斑块面积均低于无干扰预案,聚集度指数在前190年低于无干扰预案;干扰预案下白桦的分布面积和平均斑块面积百分比均高于无干扰预案,聚集度指数只在模拟的80～190年高于无干扰预案;樟子松的分布面积、聚集度指数和平均斑块面积在干扰预案下略低于无干扰预案.落叶松毛虫在一定程度上导致森林景观的破碎化.     

Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China

Aim Predictions of ecosystem responses to climate warming are often made using gap models, which are among the most effective tools for assessing the effects of climate change on forest composition and structure. Gap models do not generally account for broad‐scale effects such as the spatial configuration of the simulated forest ecosystems, disturbance, and seed dispersal, which extend beyond the simulation plots and are important under changing climates. In this study we incorporate the broad‐scale spatial effects (spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance) in simulating forest responses to climate warming. We chose the Changbai Natural Reserve in China as our study area. Our aim is to reveal the spatial effects in simulating forest responses to climate warming and make new predictions by incorporating these effects in the Changbai Natural Reserve. Location Changbai Natural Reserve, north‐eastern China. Method We used a coupled modelling approach that links a gap model with a spatially explicit landscape model. In our approach, the responses (establishment) of individual species to climate warming are simulated using a gap model (linkages ) that has been utilized previously for making predictions in this region; and the spatial effects are simulated using a landscape model (LANDIS) that incorporates spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance. We used the recent predictions of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) for the Changbai Mountain area (4.6 °C average annual temperature increase and little precipitation change). For the area encompassed by the simulation, we examined four major ecosystems distributed continuously from low to high elevations along the northern slope: hardwood forest, mixed Korean pine hardwood forest, spruce‐fir forest, and sub‐alpine forest. Results The dominant effects of climate warming were evident on forest ecosystems in the low and high elevation areas, but not in the mid‐elevation areas. This suggests that the forest ecosystems near the southern and northern ranges of their distributions will have the strongest response to climate warming. In the mid‐elevation areas, environmental controls exerted the dominant influence on the dynamics of these forests (e.g. spruce‐fir) and their resilience to climate warming was suggested by the fact that the fluctuations of species trajectories for these forests under the warming scenario paralleled those under the current climate scenario. Main conclusions With the spatial effects incorporated, the disappearance of tree species in this region due to the climate warming would not be expected within the 300‐year period covered by the simulation. Neither Korean pine nor spruce‐fir was completely replaced by broadleaf species during the simulation period. Even for the sub‐alpine forest, mountain birch did not become extinct under the climate warming scenario, although its occurrence was greatly reduced. However, the decreasing trends characterizing Korean pine, spruce, and fir indicate that in simulations beyond 300 years these species could eventually be replaced by broadleaf tree species. A complete forest transition would take much longer than the time periods predicted by the gap models.     

Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.     

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual‐based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer‐dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.     

模拟分类经营对小兴安岭林区森林生物量的影响

运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS 7.0 PRO,模拟了在当前采伐模式和无采伐两个预案下,小兴安岭林区森林生物量及主要树种生物量在2000—2200年间的动态。模拟结果如下:(1)无采伐预案下,森林生物量由最初的93.6 t/hm2逐渐升高,90a后达到最大值258 t/hm2,之后森林生物量在245 t/hm2上下小幅波动;(2)前100a采伐预案会明显降低森林生物量,与无采伐预案相比森林生物量最大可降低21.4 t/hm2,平均减少14.7 t/hm2;后100a采伐对森林生物量的影响逐渐减弱,森林生物量平均减少2.6 t/hm2;(3)当前采伐模式促进保护树种红松和紫椴生长,其生物量分别最大可提高9.0 t/hm2和0.53 t/hm2,占到无采伐预案生物量的56%和15%;(4)采伐预案对云冷杉生物量影响较小,主要降低先锋树种(白桦、山杨)和一些阔叶树种(枫桦、春榆)的生物量。研究结果表明现行采伐模式在未来100 a内会显著影响森林生物量,之后其影响逐渐减小,并且保护政策能提高所保护树种(红松、紫椴)的生物量,但要保持较高的总生物量,仍需要降低目前的采伐强度。     

The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps

Forest landscape dynamics result from the complex interaction of driving forces and ecological processes operating on various scales. Projected climate change for the 21st century will alter climate‐sensitive processes, causing shifts in species composition and also bringing about changes in disturbance regimes, particularly regarding wildfires. Previous studies of the impact of climate change on forests have focused mainly on the direct effects of climate. In the present study, we assessed the interactions among forest dynamics, climate change and large‐scale disturbances such as fire, wind and forest management. We used the Land Clim model to investigate the influence, interactions and the relative importance of these different drivers of landscape dynamics in two case study areas of the European Alps. The simulations revealed that projected future climate change would cause extensive forest cover changes, beginning in the coming decades. Fire is likely to become almost as important for shaping the landscape as the direct effects of climate change, even in areas where major wildfires do not occur under current climatic conditions. The effects of variable wind disturbances and harvesting regimes, however, are less likely to have a considerable impact on forest development compared with the direct effects of climate change coupled with the indirect effects of increased fire activity. We conclude that the joint direct and indirect effects of climate change are likely to have major consequences for mountain forests in the European Alps, including their ability to provide protection against natural hazards.     

空间直观景观模型在呼中林区土壤侵蚀预测研究中的初步应用

土壤通用流失方程(USLE)已被广泛应用于大尺度的土壤侵蚀预测．在以往的土壤侵蚀研究中,由于只能获得静态的植被图,土壤通用流失方程只能用于土壤侵蚀的静态估算．空间直观景观模型能在大尺度上模拟植被动态,为土壤通用流失方程提供动态的植被因子,从而使土壤侵蚀的动态模拟成为可能．本研究结合空间直观景观模型LANDIS和土壤通用流失修正方程,以大兴安岭呼中林区为研究区。动态地模拟未来650年内有采伐和无采伐预案下的土壤侵蚀量;同时以无火无采伐预案下的土壤侵蚀为对比值．结果表明,土壤侵蚀量随时间变化呈周期性的波动,其波动程度在无火无采伐预案下最小,而在有火无采伐预案下最大;采伐对土壤侵蚀的影响没有火对土壤侵蚀的影响在空间上表现得明显,但是其累积效果则比火的影响强;降低采伐所产生的裸露土能有效降低年平均土壤侵蚀量,但是对土壤侵蚀动态变化的影响不明显;虽然采伐增加使平均土壤侵蚀量增加,但是也同时使土壤侵蚀的年际变化更趋于平稳．     

Projected climate change effects on Alberta's boreal forests imply future challenges for oil sands reclamation

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to “equivalent land capability,” implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.