Mating patterns of black oak Quercus velutina (Fagaceae) in a Missouri oak-hickory forest

Wind-pollinated forest trees usually have high outcrossing rates, but allogamy does not necessarily translate into high pollen movement. The goal of this study was to determine the outcrossing rates, pollen pool genetic structure, and the size of the effective pollination neighborhood in a population of black oak, Quercus velutina, in a Missouri oak-hickory forest. Based on 6 allozyme loci, 12 maternal trees, and 439 progenies sampled along a transect of 1300 m, we found complete outcrossing (t(m) = 1.000, P < 0.001) and small amounts of biparental inbreeding. Using a TwoGener analysis of the pollen gene pool, we found significant structure across maternal plants (Phi(FT) = 0.078, P < 0.001), which when corrected for adult inbreeding translates into Phi(FT) = 0.066 that corresponds to an effective number of pollen donors of 7.5 individuals. Assuming a bivariate normal distribution and an adult density of 16.25 trees ha(-1), we estimated that the effective pollination neighborhood area had a radius of 41.9 m. Even assuming that our estimates may be conservative, these findings join a growing body of evidence that suggest that the local neighborhood of wind-pollinated forest tree populations may be relatively small creating opportunities for local selection and genetic drift.     

Pollen-mediated gene flow in isolated and continuous stands of bur oak, Quercus macrocarpa (Fagaceae)

? Premise of the study: Pollination patterns determine the reproductive neighborhood size of plants, the connectivity of populations, and the impacts of habitat fragmentation. We characterized pollination in three populations of Quercus macrocarpa occurring in a highly altered landscape in northeastern Illinois to determine whether isolated remnant stands were reproductively isolated. ? Methods: We used microsatellites to genotype all adults and 787 acorns from two isolated savanna remnants and a stand in an old-growth forest. One isolated remnant occurred in a highly urbanized/industrialized landscape, and one occurred in an agricultural landscape. Parentage assignment was used to assess pollen-mediated gene flow. ? Key results: Pollen donors from outside the study sites accounted for between 46% and 53% of paternities and did not differ significantly among sites, indicating that similar high levels of gene flow occurred at all three sites. Within stands, the mean pollination distance ranged from 42 to 70 meters, and when accounting for outside pollinations, mean pollination distances were well over 100 meters. Genetic diversity of incoming pollen was extremely high in all three stands. The number of effective pollen donors, N(ep), calculated from paternity assignment was higher than that estimated by an indirect correlated paternity approach. ? Conclusions: Our findings indicate that extremely isolated stands of oaks are unlikely to be genetically and reproductively isolated, and remnant stands may contribute to maintaining genetic connectivity in highly modified landscapes.     

Phenological match drives pollen‐mediated gene flow in a temporally dimorphic tree

• Variation in flowering phenology is common in natural populations, and is expected to be, together with inter‐mate distance, an important driver of effective pollen dispersal. In populations composed of plants with temporally separated sexual phases (i.e. dichogamous or heterodichogamous populations), pollen‐mediated gene flow is assumed to reflect phenological overlap between complementary sexual phases. In this study, we conducted paternity analyses to test this hypothesis in the temporally dimorphic tree Acer opalus.
• We performed spatially explicit analyses based on categorical and fractional paternity assignment, and included tree size, pair‐wise genetic relatedness and morph type as additional predictors. Because differences between morphs in flowering phenology may also influence pollination distances, we modelled separate pollen dispersal kernels for the two morphs.
• Extended phenological overlap between male and female phases (mainly associated with inter‐morph crosses) resulted in higher siring success after accounting for the effects of genetic relatedness, morph type and tree size, while reduced phenological overlap (mainly associated with intra‐morph crosses) resulted in longer pollination distances achieved. Siring success also increased in larger trees.
• Mating patterns could not be predicted by phenology alone. However, as heterogeneity in flowering phenology was the single morph‐specific predictor of siring success, it is expected to be key in maintaining the temporal dimorphism in A. opalus, by promoting not only a prevalent pattern of inter‐morph mating, but also long‐distance pollination resulting from intra‐morph mating events.

     

A new method of estimating the pollen dispersal curve independently of effective density

We introduce a novel indirect method of estimating the pollen dispersal curve from mother-offspring genotypic data. Unlike an earlier indirect approach (TwoGener), this method is based on a normalized measure of correlated paternity between female pairs whose expectation does not explicitly depend on the unknown effective male population density (d(e)). We investigate the statistical properties of the new method, by comparison with those of TwoGener, considering the sensitivity to reductions of d(e), relative to census density, resulting from unequal male fecundity and asynchronous flowering. Our main results are: (i) it is possible to obtain reliable estimates of the average distance of pollen dispersal, delta, from indirect methods, even under nonuniform male fecundity and variable flowering phenology; (ii) the new method yields more accurate and more precise delta-estimates than TwoGener under a wide range of sampling and flowering scenarios; and (iii) TwoGener can be used to obtain approximate d(e) estimates, if needed for other purposes. Our results also show that accurately estimating the shape of the tail of the pollen dispersal function by means of indirect methods remains a very difficult challenge.     

Paternity analysis of pollen-mediated gene flow for Fraxinus excelsior L. in a chronically fragmented landscape

Paternity analysis based on microsatellite marker genotyping was used to infer contemporary genetic connectivity by pollen of three population remnants of the wind-pollinated, wind-dispersed tree Fraxinus excelsior, in a deforested Scottish landscape. By deterministically accounting for genotyping error and comparing a range of assignment methods, individual-based paternity assignments were used to derive population-level estimates of gene flow. Pollen immigration into a 300 ha landscape represents between 43 and 68% of effective pollination, mostly depending on assignment method. Individual male reproductive success is unequal, with 31 of 48 trees fertilizing one seed or more, but only three trees fertilizing more than ten seeds. Spatial analysis suggests a fat-tailed pollen dispersal curve with 85% of detected pollination occurring within 100 m, and 15% spreading between 300 and 1900 m from the source. Identification of immigrating pollen sourced from two neighbouring remnants indicates further effective dispersal at 2900 m. Pollen exchange among remnants is driven by population size rather than geographic distance, with larger remnants acting predominantly as pollen donors, and smaller remnants as pollen recipients. Enhanced wind dispersal of pollen in a barren landscape ensures that the seed produced within the catchment includes genetic material from a wide geographic area. However, gene flow estimates based on analysis of non-dispersed seeds were shown to underestimate realized gene immigration into the remnants by a factor of two suggesting that predictive landscape conservation requires integrated estimates of post-recruitment gene flow occurring via both pollen and seed.     

Pollen flow in the wildservice tree, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz. IV. Whole interindividual variance of male fecundity estimated jointly with the dispersal kernel

Interindividual variance of male reproductive success (MRS) contributes to genetic drift, which in turn interacts with selection and migration to determine the short-term response of populations to rapid changes in their environment. Individual relative MRS can be estimated through paternity analysis and can be further dissected into fecundity and spatial components. Existing methods to achieve this decomposition either rely on the strong assumption of a random distribution of pollen donors (TwoGener) or estimate only the part of the variance of male fecundity that is explained by few covariates. We developed here a method to estimate jointly the whole variance of male fecundity and the pollen dispersal curve from the genotypic information of sampled seeds and their putative fathers and geographical information of all individuals in the study area. We modelled the relative individual fecundities as a log-normally distributed random effect. We used a Bayesian approach, well suited to the hierarchical nature of the model, to estimate these fecundities. When applied to Sorbus torminalis , the estimated variance of male fecundity corresponded to an effective density of trees 13 times lower than the observed density ( d_obs / d_ep ~  13). This value is between the value ( ~ 2) estimated with a classical mating model including three covariates (neighbourhood density, diameter, flowering intensity) that affect fecundity and the value ( ~ 30) estimated with TwoGener. The estimated dispersal kernel was close to previous results. This approach allows fine monitoring of ongoing genetic drift in natural populations, and quantitative dissection of the processes contributing to drift, including human actions.     

Patterns of pollen and seed dispersal in a small, fragmented population of the wind-pollinated tree Araucaria angustifolia in southern Brazil

Paternity analysis based on eight microsatellite loci was used to investigate pollen and seed dispersal patterns of the dioecious wind-pollinated tree, Araucaria angustifolia. The study sites were a 5.4 ha isolated forest fragment and a small tree group situated 1.7 km away, located in Paranalpha State, Brazil. In the forest fragment, 121 males, 99 females, 66 seedlings and 92 juveniles were mapped and genotyped, together with 210 seeds. In the tree group, nine male and two female adults were mapped and genotyped, together with 20 seeds. Paternity analysis within the forest fragment indicated that at least 4% of the seeds, 3% of the seedlings and 7% of the juveniles were fertilized by pollen from trees in the adjacent group, and 6% of the seeds were fertilized by pollen from trees outside these stands. The average pollination distance within the forest fragment was 83 m; when the tree group was included the pollination distance was 2006 m. The average number of effective pollen donors was estimated as 12.6. Mother-trees within the fragment could be assigned to all seedlings and juveniles, suggesting an absence of seed immigration. The distance of seedlings and juveniles from their assigned mother-trees ranged from 0.35 to 291 m (with an average of 83 m). Significant spatial genetic structure among adult trees, seedlings, and juveniles was detected up to 50 m, indicating seed dispersal over a short distance. The effective pollination neighborhood ranged from 0.4 to 3.3 ha. The results suggest that seed dispersal is restricted but that there is long-distance pollen dispersal between the forest fragment and the tree group; thus, the two stands of trees are not isolated.     

Two-generation analysis of pollen flow across a landscape. III. Impact of adult population structure

The rate and distance of instantaneous pollen flow in a population are parameters of considerable current interest for plant population geneticists and conservation biologists. We have recently developed an estimator (phi ft) of differentiation between the inferred pollen clouds that fertilize several females, sampled within a single population. We have shown that there is a simple relation between phi ft and the average pollen dispersal distance (delta) for the case of a population with no geographic structure. Though forest trees usually show considerable pollen flow, assuming an absence of spatially distributed genetic structure is not always wise. Here, we develop analytical theory for the relation between phi ft and delta, for the case where the probability of Identity by Descent (IBD) for two individuals decreases with the physical distance between them. This analytical theory allows us to provide an effective method for estimating pollen dispersal distance in a population with adult genetic structure. Using real examples, we show that estimation errors can be large if genetic structure is not taken into account, so it is wise to evaluate adult genetic structure simultaneously with estimation of phi ft for the pollen clouds. We show that the results are only moderately affected by changes in the decay function, a result of some importance since no completely established theory is available for this function.     

Fine-scale genetic structure and gene dispersal in Centaurea corymbosa (Asteraceae). II. Correlated paternity within and among sibships

The fine-scale pattern of correlated paternity was characterized within a population of the narrow-endemic model plant species, Centaurea corymbosa, using microsatellites and natural progeny arrays. We used classical approaches to assess correlated mating within sibships and developed a new method based on pairwise kinship coefficients to assess correlated paternity within and among sibships in a spatio-temporal perspective. We also performed numerical simulations to assess the relative significance of different mechanisms promoting correlated paternity and to compare the statistical properties of different estimators of correlated paternity. Our new approach proved very informative to assess which factors contributed most to correlated paternity and presented good statistical properties. Within progeny arrays, we found that about one-fifth of offspring pairs were full-sibs. This level of correlated mating did not result from correlated pollen dispersal events (i.e., pollen codispersion) but rather from limited mate availability, the latter being due to limited pollen dispersal distances, the heterogeneity of pollen production among plants, phenological heterogeneity and, according to simulations, the self-incompatibility system. We point out the close connection between correlated paternity and the "TwoGener" approach recently developed to infer pollen dispersal and discuss the conditions to be met when applying the latter.     

Reproductive consequences of mate quantity versus mate diversity in a wind-pollinated plant

Since most pollen travels limited distances in wind-pollinated plants, both the local quantity and diversity of mates may limit female reproductive success. Yet little evidence exists on their relative contribution, despite the importance of viable seed production to population dynamics.To study how variation in female reproductive success is affected by the quantity versus the diversity of surrounding mates contributing pollen, we integrated pollination experiments, data on natural seed set and seed viability, and AFLP genetic marker data in the wind-pollinated dioecious clonal forest herb Mercurialis perennis.Pollination experiments indicated weak quantitative pollen limitation effects on seed set. Among-population crosses showed reduced seed viability, suggesting outbreeding depression due to genetic divergence. Pollination with pollen from a single source did not negatively affect reproductive success. These findings were consistent with results of the survey of natural female reproductive success. Seed set decreased with the distance to males in a female plants’ local neighborhood, suggesting a shortage of pollen in isolated female plants, and increased with the degree of local genetic diversity. Spatial isolation to other populations and population size did not affect seed set. None of these variables were related to seed viability.We conclude that pollen movement in M. perennis is likely very limited. Both male proximity and the local degree of genetic diversity influenced female reproductive success.     

Patterns of pollen flow in a dense population of the insect-pollinated canopy tree species Castanopsis sieboldii

Insect pollinations of tree species with high-density populations have rarely been studied. Since the density of adults can affect effective pollen dispersal, short-distance pollination, even by insects, may frequently occur in high-density populations. To test this prediction, we investigated pollination patterns in a high-density population of the insect-pollinated canopy tree species Castanopsis sieboldii by paternity analysis using genotypes at 8 microsatellite loci of 145 adult trees and 439 seeds from 11 seed parents in a 4-ha plot. We then explored their genetic effects on the population by calculating other population genetics parameters. Although C. sieboldii has high potential for long-distance dispersal of pollen (as indicated by a fat-tailed dispersal kernel), the cumulative pollination at the local scale was spatially limited and strongly dependent on the distance between parents due to the high density of adults. Genetic diversity estimates for pollen pools accepted by each seed parent converged on a maximum as the effective number of pollen parents increased. The genetic diversity of pollen pool bulked over all the seed parents from inside the plot did not differ from that of the total pollen pools. Therefore, although pollen flow from distant pollen parents may help to maintain the genetic diversity of offspring, pollen parents neighboring seed parents may be the main contributors to the genetic diversity of the offspring at the seed stage.     

Maintenance of high pollen dispersal in Eucalyptus wandoo, a dominant tree of the fragmented agricultural region in Western Australia

Pollen dispersal was investigated in five remnant populations of Eucalyptus wandoo, a dominant insect-pollinated tree in the fragmented agricultural region of southern Western Australia. Paternity analysis using six microsatellite loci identified a pollen source for 45% of seedlings, and the remainder were assumed to have arisen from pollen sources outside the stands. Outcrossing was variable, ranging from 52 to 89%, and long distance pollen dispersal was observed in all populations with up to 65% of pollen sourced from outside the populations over distances of at least 1 km. Modelling dispersal functions for pollination events within the two larger populations showed little difference between the four two-parameter models tested and indicated a fat-tailed dispersal curve. Similarity of direct and indirect historical estimates of gene flow indicates maintenance of gene flow at levels experienced prior to fragmentation. The study revealed extensive long distance pollen dispersal in remnant patches of trees within a fragmented agricultural landscape in the southern temperate region and highlighted the role of remnant patches in maintaining genetic connectivity at the landscape scale.     

Pollen-mediated gene dispersal within continuous and fragmented populations of a forest understorey species, Trillium cuneatum

Pollen movement plays a critical role in the distribution of genetic variation within and among plant populations. Direct measures of pollen movement in the large, continuous populations that characterize many herbaceous plant species are often technically difficult and biologically unreliable. Here, we studied contemporary pollen movement in four large populations of Trillium cuneatum. Three populations, located in the Georgia Piedmont, are exposed to strong anthropogenic disturbances, while the fourth population, located in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, is relatively undisturbed. Using the recently developed TwoGener analysis, we extracted estimates of the effective number of pollen donors (N(ep)), effective mating neighbourhood size (A(ep)) and the average distance of pollen movement (delta) for each population. We extended the TwoGener method by developing inference on the paternal gametic contribution to the embryo in situations where offspring genotypes are inferred from seeds and elaiosomes of species with bisporic megagametogenesis. Our estimates indicate that maternal plants do not sample pollen randomly from a global pool; rather, pollen movement in all four populations is highly restricted. Although the effective number of pollen donors per maternal plant is low (1.22-1.66) and pollen movement is highly localized in all populations, N(ep) in the disturbed Piedmont populations is higher and there is more pollen movement than in the mountains. The distance pollen moves is greater in disturbed sites and fragmented populations, possibly due to edge effects in Trillium habitats.     

Spatial mating networks in insect-pollinated plants

Gene flow in plant populations is largely determined by landscape heterogeneity. Both the shape of the pollination kernel and the spatial distribution of trees affect the distribution of pollen grains and the genotypes they harbour, but little is known about the relative contribution of each of these two factors. Using genetic markers we build a spatial network of pollination events between any two trees in a population of Prunus mahaleb , an insect-pollinated plant. Then, we apply tools from the science of complex networks to characterize the structure of such a mating network. Although the distribution of the number of pollen donors per tree is quite homogeneous, the identity of donors is distributed heterogeneously across the population. This results in a population structured in well-defined modules or compartments, formed by a group of mother trees and their shared pollen donors. Long-distance pollination events decrease the modular structure by favouring mating among all available mates. This increases gene flow across the entire population, reducing its genetic structure, and potentially decreasing the role of genetic drift.     

Plant Parentage,Pollination, and Dispersal: How DNA Microsatellites Have Altered the Landscape

DNA microsatellites provide plant ecologists with molecular markers precise enough to assign parentage to seeds and seedlings. This allows the exact distance and trajectory of successful pollen to be traced to characterize pollination patterns. Parentage assignment of established seedlings also allows researchers to accurately determine how far new recruits have traveled from their seed parent. This paper reviews the history and development of molecular parentage assignment in studies of native plants, as well as the limitations and constraints to this approach. This paper also reviews 53 articles published in the past 15 years that use parentage assignment to study pollination and seed dispersal in native plants. These parentage studies have overturned many common assumptions regarding pollen and seed dispersal patterns. They show that long-distance dispersal of pollen is common in both wind and animal dispersed systems, with average pollination distances commonly being hundreds of meters. The pollination neighborhood is often extremely large, and simple dispersal functions based on distance alone fail to make accurate predictions of pollination. Rather than hindering gene flow, fragmentation and isolation sometimes, and perhaps even commonly, results in increased pollination distances. Studies of seed dispersal using parentage assignment have also yielded some surprises. We now know that it may be erroneous to assume that seeds growing under the crown of a conspecific adult are growing beneath their mother, or that seed dispersal distances are more limited than pollen dispersal distances. Taken together, the studies to date demonstrate that both seed and pollen dispersal are quite complex phenomena influenced by many ecological processes.     

Forest fragments influence pollination and yield of soybean crops in Chaco landscapes

Habitat remnants act as a source of pollinators potentially relevant for crop pollination and yield. This work analyzes how habitat loss influences pollinators, effective pollination and yield of soybean crops. The study area comprises ten sites adjacent to forest patches surrounded by a soybean matrix in central Argentina (eight sites in the season 2014–2015 and two sites in the season 2015–2016). Pollination was estimated by pollen deposition and frequency of flower visitors. Pollen deposition on stigmas and seed set were measured comparing open plants and plants with pollinator exclusion. These response variables were compared considering increasing distance to the forest edge and an increasing gradient of forest patch size. Bees were the most frequent visitors of soybean flowers, especially honeybees, but also at least three native bee species were recorded. Open plants showed higher rates of stigmatic pollen deposition than plants with pollinator exclusion, but seed set was similar. Total insect visitation rates, especially of native insects, decreased with distance to the forest edge and so did pollen deposition. Pollen deposition and seed set increased with increasing forest patch size for plants located near and far from the forest edge, respectively. Overall, our results suggest that the contribution of native pollinators from local forest patches is important for effective pollination across the landscape. Small patches of forest (approximately 1 ha.) guarantee pollinators to ensure plant yields similar to the yields of plants growing close to large patches, but only at short distances; while larger forest patches provide better pollination services for the crop at larger distances from the forest edge. However, we encourage further studies because results suggest that other factors may also influence soybean pollination and production.     

Limited seed dispersal shapes fine-scale spatial genetic structure in a Neotropical dioecious large-seeded palm

Seed and pollen dispersal contribute to gene flow and shape the genetic patterns of plants over fine spatial scales. We inferred fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) and estimated realized dispersal distances in Phytelephas aequatorialis, a Neotropical dioecious large-seeded palm. We aimed to explore how seed and pollen dispersal shape this genetic pattern in a focal population. For this purpose, we genotyped 138 seedlings and 99 adults with 20 newly developed microsatellite markers. We tested if rodent-mediated seed dispersal has a stronger influence than insect-mediated pollen dispersal in shaping FSGS. We also tested if pollen dispersal was influenced by the density of male palms around mother palms in order to further explore this ecological process in large-seeded plants. Rodent-mediated dispersal of these large seeds occurred mostly over short distances (mean 34.76 ± 34.06 m) while pollen dispersal distances were two times higher (mean 67.91 ± 38.29 m). The spatial extent of FSGS up to 35 m and the fact that seed dispersal did not increase the distance at which male alleles disperse suggest that spatially limited seed dispersal is the main factor shaping FSGS and contributes only marginally to gene flow within the population. Pollen dispersal distances depended on the density of male palms, decreasing when individuals show a clumped distribution and increasing when they are scattered. Our results show that limited seed dispersal mediated by rodents shapes FSGS in P. aequatorialis, while more extensive pollen dispersal accounts for a larger contribution to gene flow and may maintain high genetic diversity. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.     

Historical and contemporary mating patterns in remnant populations of the forest tree Fraxinus excelsior L

Genetic variation at microsatellite markers was used to quantify genetic structure and mating behavior in a severely fragmented population of the wind-pollinated, wind-dispersed temperate tree Fraxinus excelsior in a deforested catchment in Scotland. Remnants maintain high levels of genetic diversity, comparable with those reported for continuous populations in southeastern Europe, and show low interpopulation differentiation (E = 0.080), indicating that historical gene exchange has not been limited (Nm = 3.48). We estimated from seeds collected from all trees producing fruits in three of five remnants that F. excelsior is predominantly outcrossing (t(m) = 0.971 +/- 0.028). Use of a neighborhood model approach to describe the relative contribution of local and long-distance pollen dispersal indicates that pollen gene flow into each of the three remnants is extensive (46-95%) and pollen dispersal has two components. The first is very localized and restricted to tens of meters around the mother trees. The second is a long-distance component with dispersal occurring over several kilometers. Effective dispersal distances, accounting for the distance and directionality to mother trees of sampled pollen donors, average 328 m and are greater than values reported for a continuous population. These results suggest that the opening of the landscape facilitates airborne pollen movement and may alleviate the expected detrimental genetic effects of fragmentation.     

Long-pollen Movement and Deviation of Random Mating in a Low-density Continuous Population of a Tropical Tree Hymenaea courbaril in the Brazilian Amazon

Mating system and pollen flow are two key elements to understand the genetic structure of tree species. Mating and pollen-dispersal patterns of a low-density population of bat pollinated Hymanea courbaril were examined before logging in a 546-ha plot in the Brazilian Amazon. The multilocus genotypes of nine microsatellite loci were determined for 130 adult-trees and 367 seeds collected from 20 seed-trees. Mating system analysis, using mixed-mating model and paternity analysis showed that the studied population is perfectly outcrossed ( t_m = 1.002), and probably self-incompatible. However, significant deviations from random mating were detected for mating among relatives ( t_m − t_s = 0.096, P < 0.05) and correlated matings ( r_p = 0.289, P < 0.05), indicating inbreeding in the population and that part of offspring are full-sibs (28.9%). Inbreeding was reflected in the positive and significant fixation index observed in adult trees ( F = 0.137, P < 0.05), although no significant inbreeding was detected in offspring ( F = 0.074, P > 0.05). The effective number of pollen donors mating with each seed-tree was determined to be low ( N_ep ≈ 4). The average of pollen flow distance was measured inside of the plot by both paternity (827 ± 429 m) and TwoGener analysis (115–363 m). However, this underestimated pollen dispersal distance, since the detected rate of pollen immigration inside of the plot was high (55%). The observed long-pollen dispersal distance is probably related to pollination by bats and the low density of reproductive trees in the site.     

REALIZED GENE FLOW VIA POLLEN IN ARTIFICIAL POPULATIONS OF MUSK THISTLE,CARDUUS NUTANS L.

Realized gene flow via pollen was measured in four adjacent, artificial populations of musk thistle, Carduus nutans L. by observing the distribution of electrophoretic markers at two allozyme loci. Realized gene movement declined exponentially with distance. Dispersal distances of the marker alleles averaged 5.0 m. Estimates of effective neighborhood sizes based on the movement of these genetic markers ranged from 126 to 378 individuals. When measures of seed movement were included, estimates of effective population sizes range from 1,281 to 3,844 individuals. It is, therefore, unlikely that chance effects play a major role in shaping the genetic structure of well-established musk thistle populations.