应用MaxEnt模型预测濒危植物虾藓Bryoxiphium norvegicum在中国的分布范围

预测物种的分布对物种资源的评估及生物多样性保护非常重要。研究基于虾藓在中国的24个地理单位的分布数据, 结合12个环境因子数据, 使用最大熵模型( MaxEnt) 预测虾藓在我国的分布范围, 结果显示虾藓在我国的主要分布区域为东北大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山, 中部秦岭, 西南横断山、喜马拉雅山和东南台湾、福建、浙江、安徽一带。经预测, 该种在重庆、福建、湖北有分布的可能性极大, 另外新疆部分地区也可能有虾藓分布。本次研究表明虾藓在我国的潜在分布范围比目前记录的分布范围广, 加强野外调查工作, 可能会发现虾藓的新分布区域, 为虾藓保护提供更科学的保护计划。     

应用Maxent建立沙筛贝潜在生境模型

外来入侵物种沙筛贝适应能力强、繁殖率高,一旦入侵,将严重危害潮间带生物多样性。我国广东省部分沿海地区的潮间带和牡蛎增养殖区已被沙筛贝入侵,且污损情况较严重。为了了解沙筛贝目前在我国的潜在生境情况,本研究选用最大熵模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统相结合,建立了沙筛贝在我国和全球的潜在生境预测模型,并利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)和实地调查对结果进行验证。结果表明: 沙筛贝全球存在概率较高的地区分布于北美洲与南美洲之间、印度南部、斯里兰卡和我国长江以南沿海以及南半球的澳大利亚范迪门湾;沙筛贝在我国的适生区域主要分布在上海以南沿海省份。影响沙筛贝适生区域分布的主要环境变量包括水汽压、温度和太阳辐射,经ROC检测后训练集AUC值为0.996,预测结果达到优秀水平。研究结果可为沙筛贝入侵风险评估和治理提供理论依据, 补充我国外来入侵物种的潜在生境预测工作。     

基于COⅠ基因探讨北京及其周边地区跳钩虾种群遗传结构

跳钩虾Platorchestia japonica栖息于湖泊、河流岸边,是重要的环境指示生物。本研究以线粒体COⅠ基因片段为分子标记,对北京及其周边地区22个采样点的128个样本进行种群遗传多样性和遗传结构研究。结果显示,623 bp的COⅠ基因序列中有567个保守位点、56个变异位点和38个简约信息位点。128个样本检测到43个单倍型,单倍型多样性为0.938,核苷酸多样性为0.011 72。最大似然法和贝叶斯法构建的系统发育树以及单倍型网络图表明,研究区域跳钩虾没有明显的地理种群结构,但所有单倍型形成2个遗传进化支。分子变异分析结果证实,跳钩虾2个进化支间的遗传变异显著高于进化支内的,进化支间固定系数为0.852 19,表明2个进化支遗传分化明显。本研究为进一步研究中国区域跳钩虾的遗传结构提供了有意义的基础数据。     

基于红外相机技术和MaxEnt模型的黑麂(Muntiacus crinifrons)活动节律分析和潜在适生区预测

黑麂是中国特有的濒危鹿科动物,分布于浙闽赣皖四省的部分山地丘陵。为明确黑麂的活动节律及适宜环境温度,探讨四省区域的潜在分布区情况,2018年1月至2019年1月,在遂昌牛头山林场内布设57台Ltlacorn红外相机,对黑麂及其同域物种进行研究。监测期间红外相机共有效监测到黑麂26次,相对多度指数为1.79。根据监测到黑麂位点与文献记录,共确定黑麂出现位点16个。根据黑麂栖息地特征选择6个生境因子为预测背景,利用MaxEnt模型预测黑麂在浙闽赣皖四省的潜在适生区。模型预测结果准确性较高（AUC=0.976）。结果表明：（1）黑麂年活动高峰季节为夏季,日活动高峰为7：00-9：00和16：00-18：00;（2）温度是影响黑麂活动的重要因素,其活动最适宜温度范围为18-28℃;（3）黑麂潜在适生区总面积约为25980.62 km²,占四省总面积的4.87%;（4）黑麂潜在适生区分为浙赣皖潜在分布区、浙赣潜在分布区、洞宫山潜在分布区和括苍山潜在分布区4个区域。建议（1）加强潜在分布区内种群资源的调查;（2）识别并建立各适宜生境之间的生态廊道;（3）建立黑麂保护网络。     

新疆钩虾属一新种(甲壳纲,端足目,钩虾科)

记述了分布在新疆乌拉泊水库、米泉铁厂沟和乌鲁木齐市郊的淡水钩虾1新种,华美钩虾Gammarus decorosus sp.nov.。文中详细描述了其形态特征和与近似种的比较,同时附有特征图。模式标本保存于中国科学院动物研究所。     

气候变暖情境下松材线虫在我国的适生区范围

基于历史气象数据(1971—2000),利用CLIMEX软件对松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus在我国的潜在适生区进行了预测,结果显示:松材线虫在我国的适生范围广、适生程度高,全国除黑龙江、吉林省无适生区外,其余各省市区均有适生区域,其中约2/3的适生区为高度适生区,覆盖整个南方地区,分布北界达内蒙古通辽地区,西至西藏的日喀则地区;进一步结合英国气候变化研究中心提供的气候变暖情境下未来气候模拟数据TYNSC2.0,利用CLIMEX软件预测出未来30年内(2010-2039)松材线虫在我国的潜在适生区,结果发现同历史气候条件下相比,未来30年内松材线虫在我国的适生分布区将呈现范围增加、适生程度增加、向北扩散的趋势,其中分布北界将到达吉林省西部,分布西界则与历史气候条件下预测结果相差无几。     

CLIMEX:预测物种分布区的软件

CLIMEX是通过物种已知地理分布区域的气候参数来预测物种潜在分布区的软件。 1 999年发布了最新版即CLIMEXforWindows 1 1。CLIMEX有 2个基本假设 :( 1 )物种在 1年内经历 2个时期 ,即适合种群增长时期和不适合以至于危及生存的时期 ;( 2 )气候是影响物种分布的主要因素 ,并利用增长指数、胁迫指数和限制条件 (滞育和有效积温 )描述物种对气候的不同反应 ,这 2组参数构成生态气候指数 ,作为全面描述物种在某地区和年份适合度的指标。模型预测结果以表、图和地图输出。CLIMEX可以用于检疫、生物防治、有害生物风险分析、害虫管理和流行病的预测等。目前已经用于几十种有害生物的适生性研究。该文通过拟和松墨天牛在中国的分布区为例说明CLIMEX的用法 ,并根据松墨天牛在亚洲东部的气候条件 ,预测其在全球的潜在适生区 ,为动植物检疫部门及时采取相应措施控制松材线虫的进一步扩散提供科学依据     

基于生态位模型的番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布预测

番荔枝实蝇Ceratitis artortoe(Graham)是一种重要的外来人侵性检疫害虫.在广东口岸,其幼虫连续从入境旅客所携带的水果中被榆出.目前关于番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布的研究进行得很少,但对于我国的生物生态安全却有重要意义.本研究中,我们使用3种牛态位模型(ENFA模型,马氏典型性模型和Maxent模型)对番荔枝实蝇在中斟以及全球范尉内的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测分析.结果显示:Maxent模型拥有最好的预测精确度,马氏典型件模型次之,而ENFA模型的预测精确度最差;Maxent模型和马氏典型性模型的预测精确度无显著性差异;根据Maxent模型的预测结果,番荔枝实蝇在中国的潜在适生区主要是广西、广东、海南以及云南的少部分地区.分析结果显示,番荔枝实蝇从境外传人中国南部地区并最终在上述地区定殖的风险可能性存在,但风险较小.另外,折刀法(Jackknife)分析显示,6种环境因子,例如地面霜冻频率、年平均降雨量、十月降雨量、四月降雨量、年最低温度以及蒸气压,对于番荔枝实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式有显著的影响.     

长江中下游浅水湖泊水生植被生态恢复种的筛选与应用研究

湖泊富营养化是全球性的生态学问题。长江中下游浅水湖泊群作为我国八大湖泊群之一, 近30年来水体富营养化以及生态系统功能退化极为严重, 亟待系统性修复。水生植物生态修复技术则是面向富营养化浅水湖泊生态治理的重要技术。然而, 选择合适的水生植物恢复种来保证恢复效果以及长期的生态安全与稳定性仍是目前恢复工程中的重要且薄弱环节。结合长江中下游湖泊中水生植物的生长、分布、繁殖、来源及污染耐受性等提出了以乡土物种操控为理念适合该区域湖泊的生态恢复先锋物种建议名录, 并依据所筛选的物种特性和淡水生态学相关理论, 提出不同的优化组合方案来指导长江中下游不同类型湖泊的水生植物生态恢复。     

长江中下游浅水湖泊水生植被生态修复种的筛选与应用研究

湖泊富营养化是全球性的生态学问题。长江中下游浅水湖泊群作为我国八大湖泊群之一,近30年来水体富营养化以及生态系统功能退化极为严重,亟待系统性修复。水生植物生态修复技术则是面向富营养化浅水湖泊生态治理的重要技术。然而,选择合适的水生植物恢复种来保证恢复效果以及长期的生态安全与稳定性仍是目前恢复工程中的重要且薄弱环节。结合长江中下游湖泊中水生植物的生长、分布、繁殖、来源及污染耐受性等提出了以乡土物种操控为理念适合该区域湖泊的生态恢复先锋物种建议名录,并依据所筛选的物种特性和淡水生态学相关理论,提出不同的优化组合方案来指导长江中下游不同类型湖泊的水生植物生态恢复。     

青海省冬虫夏草资源适宜性区划分析

冬虫夏草是青藏高原的珍稀物种,具有较高的药用和经济价值,然而其资源的数量特征、空间分布格局及适宜度尚不清晰。本研究以青海省冬虫夏草资源生境条件为依据,以海拔、植被、土壤、气温和降水量作为主要指标,利用地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)的空间分析方法对青海省冬虫夏草资源适宜性及空间分布进行分析,并用野外实地采样进行验证。研究表明：玉树州的玉树市、杂多县、称多县、曲麻莱县;果洛州的玛沁县、达日县、甘德县等区域多处在适宜区;海北州的祁连县、刚察县,黄南州的泽库县、河南县、同仁县,玉树州的治多县、囊谦县,海南州的兴海县、同德县、贵南县及其他产冬虫夏草县的部分区域为较适宜区;西宁市的大通县,海东市的互助县和海西州的低海拔地区为不适宜区。整个青藏高原具有冬虫夏草分布面积占当地县域国土面积的76.2%。在青海省具有冬虫夏草分布的地区(市/州)中,玉树州和果洛州冬虫夏草分布的面积占当地县域国土面积的88.3%-99.6%,海北州、海东市、海南州、海西州、黄南州和西宁市冬虫夏草分布面积占当地县域国土面积的30.2%-96.5%。综合区划图能比较真实地反映青海省冬虫夏草资源的空间分布格局,区划结果与实地调查结果相符,表明利用空间分析方法进行冬虫夏草资源的适宜性分布区域的划分是可行的,该研究为合理开发和科学利用冬虫夏草野生资源提供理论依据。     

Model‐based integration of observed and expert‐based information for assessing the geographic and environmental distribution of freshwater species

Freshwater ecosystems harbor specialized and vulnerable biodiversity, and the prediction of potential impacts of freshwater biodiversity to environmental change requires knowledge of the geographic and environmental distribution of taxa. To date, however, such quantitative information about freshwater species distributions remains limited. Major impediments include heterogeneity in available species occurrence data, varying detectability of species in their aquatic environment, scarcity of contiguous freshwater‐specific predictors, and methods that support addressing these issues in a single framework. Here we demonstrate the use of a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework that combines disparate species occurrence information with newly‐developed 1 km freshwater‐specific predictors, to account for imperfect species detection and make fine‐grain (1 km) estimates of distributions in freshwater organisms. The approach integrates a Bernoulli suitability and a Binomial observability process into a hierarchical zero‐inflated Binomial model. The suitability process includes point presence observations, records of site visits, 1 km environmental predictors and expert‐derived species range maps integrated with a distance‐decay function along the within‐stream distance as covariates. The observability process uses repeated observations to estimate a probability of observation given that the species was present. The HBM accounts for the spatial autocorrelation in species habitat suitability projections using an intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive model. We used this framework for three fish species native to different regions and habitats in North America. Model comparison shows that HBMs significantly outperformed non‐spatial GLMs in terms of AUC and TSS scores, and that expert information when appropriately included in the model can provide an important refinement. Such ancillary species information and an integrative, hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework can therefore be used to advance fine‐grain habitat suitability predictions and range size estimates in the freshwater realm. Our approach is extendable in terms of data availability and generality and can be used on other freshwater organisms and regions.     

道路对三江源国家公园黄河源园区藏野驴和藏原羚种群数量及其栖息地的影响

为探究道路对三江源国家公园黄河源园区藏野驴(Equus kiang)和藏原羚(Procapra picticaudata)种群数量及其栖息地的影响,于2020年冷季采用截线取样法在黄河源园区进行实地调查.通过设置4种不同等级的道路情景,使用MaxEnt模型评价藏野驴和藏原羚的生境适宜性,模拟了不同等级道路变量情景下两种...     

Patterns of Diversity,Areas of Endemism,and Multiple Glacial Refuges for Freshwater Crabs of the Genus Sinopotamon in China (Decapoda: Brachyura: Potamidae)

Previous research has shown that the geographical distribution patterns of freshwater fishes and amphibians have been influenced by past climatic oscillations in China resulting from Pleistocene glacial activity. However, it remains unknown how these past changes have impacted the present-day distribution of Chinese freshwater crabs. This work describes the diversity and endemism of freshwater crabs belonging to Sinopotamon, a highly speciose genus endemic to China, and evaluates its distribution in terms of topography and past climatic fluctuations. Species diversity within Sinopotamon was found to be concentrated in an area from the northeastern edge of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the Jiangnan Hills, and three areas of endemism were identified. Multiple regression analysis between current climatic variables and Sinopotamon diversity suggested that regional annual precipitation, minimum temperature in the coldest month, and annual temperature range significantly influenced species diversity and may explain the diversity patterns of Sinopotamon. A comparison of ecological niche models (ENMs) between current conditions and the last glacial maximum (LGM) showed that suitable habitat for Sinopotamon in China severely contracted during the LGM. The coincidence of ENMs and the areas of endemism indicated that southeast of the Daba Mountains, and central and southeastern China, are potential Pleistocene refuges for Sinopotamon. The presence of multiple Pleistocene refuges within the range of this genus could further promote inter- and intraspecific differentiations, and may have led to high Sinopotamon species diversity, a high endemism rate and widespread distribution.     

Forecasting climate-driven habitat changes for Australian freshwater fishes

Aims

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on species' distributions into the future. Freshwater fishes, an important component of freshwater ecosystems, are no exception. Here, we project shifts in suitable conditions for Australian freshwater fishes under different climate change scenarios to identify species that may experience significant declines in habitat suitability.

Location

Australia.

Methods

We use MAXENT bioclimatic models to estimate the effect of climate change on the suitable conditions for 154 species of Australian freshwater fishes, of which 109 are endemic and 29 are threatened with extinction. Suitable conditions for freshwater fish species are modelled using three different Earth System climate models (ESMs) under two different emission scenarios to the year 2100. For each species, we examine potential geographic shifts in the distribution of suitable conditions from the present day to 2100 and quantify how habitat suitability may change at currently occupied sites by the end of this century.

Results

Broadscale poleward shifts in suitable conditions are projected for Australian freshwater fishes by an average of up to 0.38° (~180 km) across all species, depending on the emission scenario. Considerable loss of suitable conditions is forecast to occur within currently recognized distributional extents by 2100, with a mean projected loss of up to 17.5% across species. Predicted geographic range shifts and declines are larger under a high-emission scenario. Threatened species are projected to be more adversely affected than nonthreatened species.

Main Conclusions

Our models identify species and geographic regions that may be vulnerable to climate change, enabling freshwater fish conservation into the future.     

基于MAXENT模型评估北部湾潮间带中国鲎和圆尾鲎稚鲎的潜在地理分布及种群保育对策

鲎具有极高的经济价值和科研意义。近年来由于过度捕捞和栖息地受损等原因,亚洲鲎种群数量正急剧下降。鲎漫长的生命周期使得鲎资源的保护和增殖迫在眉睫。生态位模型已经广泛应用于物种的潜在地理分布预测。基于实地调研数据和公开发表的北部湾中国海域中国鲎和圆尾鲎地理分布数据,运用MAXENT模型得到中国鲎和圆尾鲎在广西北部湾(中国部分)的栖息地适宜度指数(Habitat suitability index, HSI),确定了这两种稚鲎在北部湾中国海域潜在适生区。模型分析结果表明,潮间带坡度和地形指数是影响中国鲎分布的主要环境因子,而潮间带底质的有机物含量和植被指数是影响圆尾鲎分布的主要环境因子,根据研究结果建议在两种稚鲎适生区建立保护区,进行人工放流稚鲎,加强对海草和红树林的生态建设,进而促进鲎资源种群恢复和发展。     

Salinisation reduces biodiversity in neighbouring freshwater patches in experimental metacommunities

1. Aquatic ecosystems are biodiversity hot spots across many landscapes; therefore, the degradation of these habitats can lead to decreases in biodiversity across multiple scales. Salinisation is a global issue that threatens freshwater ecosystems by reducing water quality and local biodiversity. The effects of salinity on local processes have been studied extensively; however, the effects of salinisation or similar environmental stressors within a metacommunity (a dispersal network of several distinct communities) have not been explored.
2. We tested how the spatial heterogeneity and the environmental contrast between freshwater and saline habitat patches influenced cladoceran biodiversity and species composition at local and regional scales in a metacommunity mesocosm experiment. We defined spatial heterogeneity as the proportion of freshwater to saltwater patches within the metacommunity, ranging from a freshwater-dominated metacommunity to a saltwater-dominated metacommunity. Environmental contrast was defined as the environmental distance between habitat patches along the salinity gradient in which low-contrast metacommunities consisted of freshwater and low-salinity patches and high-contrast metacommunities consisted of freshwater and high-salinity patches.
3. We hypothesised that the α-richness of freshwater patches and metacommunity γ-richness would decrease as freshwater patches became less abundant along the spatial heterogeneity gradient in both low- and high-contrast metacommunities, because there would be fewer freshwater patches that could serve as source populations for declining populations. We hypothesised that low-contrast metacommunities would support more species across the spatial heterogeneity gradient than high-contrast metacommunities, because, via dispersal, low-salinity patches can support halotolerant freshwater species that can mitigate population declines in neighbouring freshwater patches, whereas` high-salinity patches will mostly support halophilic species, providing fewer potential colonisers to freshwater patches.
4. We found that α-richness of freshwater mesocosms and metacommunity γ-richness declined in saline-dominated metacommunities regardless of the environmental contrast between the freshwater and saline mesocosms. We found that environmental contrast influenced freshwater and saline community composition in low-contrast metacommunities by increasing the abundances of species that could tolerate low-salinity environments through dispersal, whereas freshwater and high-salinity communities showed limited interactions through dispersal.
5. Freshwater mesocosms had a disproportionate effect on the local and regional biodiversity in these experimental metacommunities, indicating that habitat identity may be more important than habitat diversity for maintaining biodiversity in some metacommunities. This study further emphasises the importance in maintaining multiple species-rich habitat patches across landscapes, particularly those experiencing landscape-wide habitat degradation.

     

Integrative freshwater ecology and biodiversity conservation

Freshwater ecosystems provide goods and services of critical importance to human societies, yet they are among the most heavily altered ecosystems with an overproportional loss of biodiversity. Major threats to freshwater biodiversity include overexploitation, water pollution, fragmentation, destruction or degradation of habitat, and invasions by non-native species. Alterations of natural flow regimes by man-made dams, land-use changes, river impoundments, and water abstraction often have profound impacts on lotic communities. An understanding of the functional interactions and processes in freshwater ecosystems presents a major challenge for scientists, but is crucial for effective and sustainable restoration. Most conservation approaches to date have considered single species or single level strategies. In contrast, the concept of ‘Integrative Freshwater Ecology and Biodiversity Conservation’ (IFEBC) proposed herein addresses the interactions between abiotic and biotic factors on different levels of organization qualitatively and quantitatively. It consequently results in a more holistic understanding of biodiversity functioning and management. Core questions include modeling of the processes in aquatic key habitats and their functionality based on the identification and quantification of factors which control the spatial and temporal distribution of biodiversity and productivity in aquatic ecosystems. The context and importance of research into IFEBC is illustrated using case studies from three major areas of research: (i) aquatic habitat quality and restoration ecology, (ii) the genetic and evolutionary potential of aquatic species, and (iii) the detection of stress and toxic effects in aquatic ecosystems using biomarkers. In conclusion, our understanding of the functioning of aquatic ecosystems and conservation management can greatly benefit from the methodological combination of molecular and ecological tools.     

基于MaxEnt模型的小兴安岭东北虎潜在生境适宜性评价

小兴安岭是东北虎的历史分布区之一,近年来东北虎数次重返小兴安岭,预示了小兴安岭东北虎种群恢复的可能性。为了探明小兴安岭作为东北虎栖息地的适宜程度,本文以我国小兴安岭及俄罗斯联邦阿穆尔州、犹太自治州为整体研究区域,利用该区域内东北虎出现点数据,采用Maxent模型,以植被、气候、地形、积雪4类环境数据为基础,分析自然环境条件下小兴安岭东北虎潜在生境的适宜性及空间分布。结果显示：小兴安岭东北虎潜在适宜生境面积为0.96×10⁴~1.03 ×10⁴ km²,主要位于小兴安岭北部和东部,中部、西部和东南部有少量分散适宜生境;次适宜生境面积为2.46×10⁴~1.76 ×10⁴ km²,主要位于适宜生境周边区域;叶灌层差异、蒸散量、归一化植被指数、叶面积指数等植被相关因素及降水季节性、最冷季降水量等气候因素是影响东北虎栖息地适宜程度的主要环境特征变量。小兴安岭仍具备东北虎种群生存的自然条件。     

气候变化对黄土高原及邻近地区稀有种枯蝉分布的潜在影响(英文)

【目的】未来数十年的气候变化预计会是造成很多物种生境丧失的一个重要因素。对适应能力相对脆弱的地方性物种,预测气候变化对其生境的影响将对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于最大熵模型,对珍稀蝉科中国特有种枯蝉Subpsaltria yangi在当前和未来气候条件下的生境适宜度进行了评估。【结果】结果表明,枯蝉主要局限分布于黄土高原及邻近地区。预计至2050年,即使在温和的气候变化情景下,枯蝉的生境面积也会明显减少。影响枯蝉栖息地分布的关键因素为年平均气温、最冷月的最低气温、最冷季的平均气温和最潮湿月份的降水量。枯蝉现存种群栖息地应当受到保护,甘肃天水和陕西延安地区应作为枯蝉分布的核心区予以保护,以应对气候变化对其生境带来的影响。【结论】本研究获得的枯蝉适宜生境分布图可以为该稀有物种的新种群发现、现生种群分布地土地规划管理以及有效的自然保护区设立提供重要信息。