Mediational Effects of Self-Efficacy Dimensions in the Relationship between Knowledge of Dengue and Dengue Preventive Behaviour with Respect to Control of Dengue Outbreaks: A Structural Equation Model of a Cross-Sectional Survey

Background

Dengue fever is endemic in Malaysia, with frequent major outbreaks in urban areas. The major control strategy relies on health promotional campaigns aimed at encouraging people to reduce mosquito breeding sites close to people''s homes. However, such campaigns have not always been 100% effective. The concept of self-efficacy is an area of increasing research interest in understanding how health promotion can be most effective. This paper reports on a study of the impact of self-efficacy on dengue knowledge and dengue preventive behaviour.

Methods and Findings

We recruited 280 adults from 27 post-outbreak villages in the state of Terengganu, east coast of Malaysia. Measures of health promotion and educational intervention activities and types of communication during outbreak, level of dengue knowledge, level and strength of self-efficacy and dengue preventive behaviour were obtained via face-to-face interviews and questionnaires. A structural equation model was tested and fitted the data well (χ² = 71.659, df = 40, p = 0.002, RMSEA = 0.053, CFI = 0.973, TLI = 0.963). Mass media, local contact and direct information-giving sessions significantly predicted level of knowledge of dengue. Level and strength of self-efficacy fully mediated the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours. Strength of self-efficacy acted as partial mediator in the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours.

Conclusions

To control and prevent dengue outbreaks by behavioural measures, health promotion and educational interventions during outbreaks should now focus on those approaches that are most likely to increase the level and strength of self-efficacy.     

The Interactive Roles of Aedes aegypti Super-Production and Human Density in Dengue Transmission

Background

A. aegypti production and human density may vary considerably in dengue endemic areas. Understanding how interactions between these factors influence the risk of transmission could improve the effectiveness of the allocation of vector control resources. To evaluate the combined impacts of variation in A. aegypti production and human density we integrated field data with simulation modeling.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using data from seven censuses of A. aegypti pupae (2007–2009) and from demographic surveys, we developed an agent-based transmission model of the dengue transmission cycle across houses in 16 dengue-endemic urban ‘patches’ (1–3 city blocks each) of Armenia, Colombia. Our field data showed that 92% of pupae concentrated in only 5% of houses, defined as super-producers. Average secondary infections (R₀) depended on infrequent, but highly explosive transmission events. These super-spreading events occurred almost exclusively when the introduced infectious person infected mosquitoes that were produced in super-productive containers. Increased human density favored R₀, and when the likelihood of human introduction of virus was incorporated into risk, a strong interaction arose between vector production and human density. Simulated intervention of super-productive containers was substantially more effective in reducing dengue risk at higher human densities.

Significance/Conclusions

These results show significant interactions between human population density and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti in the dynamics of dengue transmission. The large epidemiological significance of super-productive containers suggests that they have the potential to influence dengue viral adaptation to mosquitoes. Human population density plays a major role in dengue transmission, due to its potential impact on human-A. aegypti contact, both within a person''s home and when visiting others. The large variation in population density within typical dengue endemic cities suggests that it should be a major consideration in dengue control policy.     

Urbanization Increases Aedes albopictus Larval Habitats and Accelerates Mosquito Development and Survivorship

Introduction

Aedes albopictus is a very invasive and aggressive insect vector that causes outbreaks of dengue fever, chikungunya disease, and yellow fever in many countries. Vector ecology and disease epidemiology are strongly affected by environmental changes. Urbanization is a worldwide trend and is one of the most ecologically modifying phenomena. The purpose of this study is to determine how environmental changes due to urbanization affect the ecology of Aedes albopictus.

Methods

Aquatic habitats and Aedes albopictus larval population surveys were conducted from May to November 2013 in three areas representing rural, suburban, and urban settings in Guangzhou, China. Ae. albopictus adults were collected monthly using BG-Sentinel traps. Ae. albopictus larva and adult life-table experiments were conducted with 20 replicates in each of the three study areas.

Results

The urban area had the highest and the rural area had the lowest number of aquatic habitats that tested positive for Ae. albopictus larvae. Densities in the larval stages varied among the areas, but the urban area had almost two-fold higher densities in pupae and three-fold higher in adult populations compared with the suburban and rural areas. Larvae developed faster and the adult emergence rate was higher in the urban area than in suburban and rural areas. The survival time of adult mosquitoes was also longer in the urban area than it was in suburban and rural areas. Study regions, surface area, water depth, water clearance, surface type, and canopy coverage were important factors associated with the presence of Ae. albopictus larvae.

Conclusions

Urbanization substantially increased the density, larval development rate, and adult survival time of Ae. albopictus, which in turn potentially increased the vector capacity, and therefore, disease transmissibility. Mosquito ecology and its correlation with dengue virus transmission should be compared in different environmental settings.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission along a Red Sea Coastline: A Longitudinal Entomological and Serological Survey in Port Sudan City

Background

Dengue is an emerging health problem in several coastlines along the Red Sea. The objective of the present work is to elucidate spatial and temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Port Sudan.

Methods/Findings

A longitudinal study with three cross-sectional surveys was carried out in upper, middle and lower class neighborhoods, from November 2008 to October 2009. Monthly, entomological surveys were followed by serological surveys in dengue vector-positive houses. Meteorological records were obtained from two weather stations in the city during the same time. Overall, 2825 houses were inspected. Aedes aegypti represented 65% (35,714/54,944) and 68% (2526/3715) of the collected larvae and pupae, respectively. Out of 4640 drinking water containers, 2297 were positive for Ae. aegypti. Clay-pots “Zeirr” followed by plastic barrels were key productive containers for pupae of dengue vector, 63% (n = 3959) and 26% (n = 1651), respectively. A total of 791 blood samples were tested using PanBio Capture/Indirect IgM ELISA. Overall, the sero-prevalence rate of dengue ranged between 3%–8% (41/791), compared to an incidence of 29–40 new cases per 10,000 (193/54886) in the same examined population. Lower and middle class neighborhoods had higher entomological indices compared with upper class ones (p<0.001). Although, dengue incidence rate was significantly lower in the middle and lower class neighborhoods (F = 73.97, d.f. = 2, p<0.001), no difference in IgM prevalence was shown. The city is subject to two transmission peaks in the winter (i.e. November–January), and summer (i.e. June–August). The serological peaks of dengue are preceded by entomological peaks that occur before the onset of winter (November) and summer (March) respectively.

Conclusion

Dengue incidence is heterogeneously distributed across the neighborhoods of Port Sudan and exhibits a bi-cyclic intra-annual pattern. Hence, it should be feasible to carry out timely vector control measures to prevent or reduce dengue transmission.     

Seroepidemiology of Dengue virus in Mayotte, Indian Ocean, 2006

Background

Although Dengue virus (DENV) circulation had been documented in neighbouring South-western Indian Ocean Islands, its presence in Mayotte is poorly characterised. To address this issue, we aimed to assess the seroprevalence of dengue IgG antibodies (DENV-IgG Ab) among the population and to investigate potential associations with individual and household characteristics.

Methods/Principal Findings

In November–December 2006 we conducted a cross-sectional serologic survey in Mayotte among 1,154 inhabitants aged ≥2 years by using a multistage cluster random sampling method. The overall prevalence of DENV-specific IgG antibodies (ELISA) was 22.73% (95% CI, 18.16–27.31). The age-specific seroprevalence increased with age (χ² for trend = 11.86, P<0.0006), and was linked with previous known outbreaks in this region. In multivariate analysis, older age, being born in the Comoros and living in a household with a low socioeconomic index were positively associated with DENV IgG antibody positivity.

Conclusions

These findings document substantial prior exposure of the population of Mayotte to DENV and highlight the risk of severe illness due to the possibility of sequential DENV infections. Further investigations characterizing current DENV circulation patterns and associated serotypes are needed.     

Serological Evidence of Henipavirus Exposure in Cattle,Goats and Pigs in Bangladesh

Background

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging disease that causes severe encephalitis and respiratory illness in humans. Pigs were identified as an intermediate host for NiV transmission in Malaysia. In Bangladesh, NiV has caused recognized human outbreaks since 2001 and three outbreak investigations identified an epidemiological association between close contact with sick or dead animals and human illness.

Methodology

We examined cattle and goats reared around Pteropus bat roosts in human NiV outbreak areas. We also tested pig sera collected under another study focused on Japanese encephalitis.

Principal Findings

We detected antibodies against NiV glycoprotein in 26 (6.5%) cattle, 17 (4.3%) goats and 138 (44.2%) pigs by a Luminex-based multiplexed microsphere assay; however, these antibodies did not neutralize NiV. Cattle and goats with NiVsG antibodies were more likely to have a history of feeding on fruits partially eaten by bats or birds (PR = 3.1, 95% CI 1.6–5.7) and drinking palmyra palm juice (PR = 3.9, 95% CI 1.5–10.2).

Conclusions

This difference in test results may be due to the exposure of animals to one or more novel viruses with antigenic similarity to NiV. Further research may identify a novel organism of public health importance.     

Genetic Variants of MICB and PLCE1 and Associations with Non-Severe Dengue

Background

A recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) identified susceptibility loci for dengue shock syndrome (DSS) at MICB rs3132468 and PLCE1 rs3740360. The aim of this study was to define the extent to which MICB (rs3132468) and PLCE1 (rs3740360) were associated with less severe clinical phenotypes of pediatric and adult dengue.

Methods

3961 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases and 5968 controls were genotyped at MICB rs3132468 and PLCE1 rs3740360. Per-allele odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for each patient cohort. Pooled analyses were performed for adults and paediatrics respectively using a fixed effects model.

Results

Pooled analysis of the paediatric and adult cohorts indicated a significant association between MICB rs3132468 and dengue cases without shock (OR  =  1.15; 95%CI: 1.07 – 1.24; P  =  0.0012). Similarly, pooled analysis of pediatric and adult cohorts indicated a significant association between dengue cases without shock and PLCE1 rs3740360 (OR  =  0.92; 95%CI: 0.85 – 0.99; P  =  0.018). We also note significant association between both SNPs (OR  =  1.48; P  =  0.0075 for MICB rs3132468 and OR  =  0.75, P  =  0.041 for PLCE1 rs3740360) and dengue in infants.

Discussion

This study confirms that the MICB rs3132468 and PLCE1 rs3740360 risk genotypes are not only associated with DSS, but are also associated with less severe clinical phenotypes of dengue, as well as with dengue in infants. These findings have implications for our understanding of dengue pathogenesis.     

Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control

Background

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic.

Methods/Principal findings

We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers.

Conclusions

These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region''s public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish.     

Antimicrobial Resistance,Virulence Factors and Genetic Diversity of Escherichia coli Isolates from Household Water Supply in Dhaka,Bangladesh

Background

Unsafe water supplies continue to raise public health concerns, especially in urban areas in low resource countries. To understand the extent of public health risk attributed to supply water in Dhaka city, Bangladesh, Escherichia coli isolated from tap water samples collected from different locations of the city were characterized for their antibiotic resistance, pathogenic properties and genetic diversity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 233 E. coli isolates obtained from 175 tap water samples were analysed for susceptibility to 16 different antibiotics and for the presence of genes associated with virulence and antibiotic resistance. Nearly 36% (n = 84) of the isolates were multi-drug(≥3 classes of antibiotics) resistant (MDR) and 26% (n = 22) of these were positive for extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL). Of the 22 ESBL-producers, 20 were positive for bla _CTX-M-15, 7 for bla _OXA-1-group (all had bla _OXA-47) and 2 for bla _CMY-2. Quinolone resistance genes, qnrS and qnrB were detected in 6 and 2 isolates, respectively. Around 7% (n = 16) of the isolates carried virulence gene(s) characteristic of pathogenic E. coli; 11 of these contained lt and/or st and thus belonged to enterotoxigenic E. coli and 5 contained bfp and eae and thus belonged to enteropathogenic E. coli. All MDR isolates carried multiple plasmids (2 to 8) of varying sizes ranging from 1.2 to >120 MDa. Ampicillin and ceftriaxone resistance were co-transferred in conjugative plasmids of 70 to 100 MDa in size, while ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and tetracycline resistance were co-transferred in conjugative plasmids of 50 to 90 MDa. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis revealed diverse genetic fingerprints of pathogenic isolates.

Significance

Multi-drug resistant E. coli are wide spread in public water supply in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Transmission of resistant bacteria and plasmids through supply water pose serious threats to public health in urban areas.     

International Dispersal of Dengue through Air Travel: Importation Risk for Europe

Background

The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in Europe. Local dengue transmission in Europe is extremely rare, and the last outbreak occurred in 1927–28 in Greece. However, autochthonous transmission was reported from France in September 2010, and from Croatia between August and October 2010.

Methodology

We compiled data on areas affected by dengue in 2010 from web resources and surveillance reports, and collected national dengue importation data. We developed a hierarchical regression model to quantify the relationship between the number of reported dengue cases imported into Europe and the volume of airline travellers arriving from dengue-affected areas internationally.

Principal Findings

In 2010, over 5.8 million airline travellers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas worldwide, of which 703,396 arrived at 36 airports situated in areas where Ae. albopictus has been recorded. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for imported dengue into European countries was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17) for every increase of 10,000 travellers; in August, September, and October the rate ratios were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.23–2.35), 1.46 (95%CI: 1.02–2.10), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.01–1.81), respectively. Two Italian cities where the vector is present received over 50% of all travellers from dengue-affected areas, yet with the continuing vector expansion more cities will be implicated in the future. In fact, 38% more travellers arrived in 2013 into those parts of Europe where Ae. albopictus has recently been introduced, compared to 2010.

Conclusions

The highest risk of dengue importation in 2010 was restricted to three months and can be ranked according to arriving traveller volume from dengue-affected areas into cities where the vector is present. The presence of the vector is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for DENV onward transmission, which depends on a number of additional factors. However, our empirical model can provide spatio-temporal elements to public health interventions.     

Optimal Lead Time for Dengue Forecast

Background

A dengue early warning system aims to prevent a dengue outbreak by providing an accurate prediction of a rise in dengue cases and sufficient time to allow timely decisions and preventive measures to be taken by local authorities. This study seeks to identify the optimal lead time for warning of dengue cases in Singapore given the duration required by a local authority to curb an outbreak.

Methodology and Findings

We developed a Poisson regression model to analyze relative risks of dengue cases as functions of weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall with lag times of 1–5 months using spline functions. We examined the duration of vector control and cluster management in dengue clusters > = 10 cases from 2000 to 2010 and used the information as an indicative window of the time required to mitigate an outbreak. Finally, we assessed the gap between forecast and successful control to determine the optimal timing for issuing an early warning in the study area. Our findings show that increasing weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall precede risks of increasing dengue cases by 4–20 and 8–20 weeks, respectively. These lag times provided a forecast window of 1–5 months based on the observed weather data. Based on previous vector control operations, the time needed to curb dengue outbreaks ranged from 1–3 months with a median duration of 2 months. Thus, a dengue early warning forecast given 3 months ahead of the onset of a probable epidemic would give local authorities sufficient time to mitigate an outbreak.

Conclusions

Optimal timing of a dengue forecast increases the functional value of an early warning system and enhances cost-effectiveness of vector control operations in response to forecasted risks. We emphasize the importance of considering the forecast-mitigation gaps in respective study areas when developing a dengue forecasting model.     

Comparative Host Feeding Patterns of the Asian Tiger Mosquito,Aedes albopictus,in Urban and Suburban Northeastern USA and Implications for Disease Transmission

Background

Aedes albopictus is an invasive species which continues expanding its geographic range and involvement in mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and dengue. Host selection patterns by invasive mosquitoes are critically important because they increase endemic disease transmission and drive outbreaks of exotic pathogens. Traditionally, Ae. albopictus has been characterized as an opportunistic feeder, primarily feeding on mammalian hosts but occasionally acquiring blood from avian sources as well. However, limited information is available on their feeding patterns in temperate regions of their expanded range. Because of the increasing expansion and abundance of Ae. albopictus and the escalating diagnoses of exotic pathogens in travelers returning from endemic areas, we investigated the host feeding patterns of this species in newly invaded areas to further shed light on its role in disease ecology and assess the public health threat of an exotic arbovirus outbreak.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We identified the vertebrate source of 165 blood meals in Ae. albopictus collected between 2008 and 2011 from urban and suburban areas in northeastern USA. We used a network of Biogents Sentinel traps, which enhance Ae. albopictus capture counts, to conduct our collections of blooded mosquitoes. We also analyzed blooded Culex mosquitoes collected alongside Ae. albopictus in order to examine the composition of the community of blood sources. We found no evidence of bias since as expected Culex blood meals were predominantly from birds (n = 149, 93.7%) with only a small proportion feeding on mammals (n = 10, 6.3%). In contrast, Aedes albopictus fed exclusively on mammalian hosts with over 90% of their blood meals derived from humans (n = 96, 58.2%) and domesticated pets (n = 38, 23.0% cats; and n = 24, 14.6% dogs). Aedes albopictus fed from humans significantly more often in suburban than in urban areas (χ², p = 0.004) and cat-derived blood meals were greater in urban habitats (χ², p = 0.022). Avian-derived blood meals were not detected in any of the Ae. albopictus tested.

Conclusions/Significance

The high mammalian affinity of Ae. albopictus suggests that this species will be an efficient vector of mammal- and human-driven zoonoses such as La Crosse, dengue, and chikungunya viruses. The lack of blood meals obtained from birds by Ae. albopictus suggest that this species may have limited exposure to endemic avian zoonoses such as St. Louis encephalitis and West Nile virus, which already circulate in the USA. However, growing populations of Ae. albopictus in major metropolitan urban and suburban centers, make a large autochthonous outbreak of an arbovirus such as chikungunya or dengue viruses a clear and present danger. Given the difficulties of Ae. albopictus suppression, we recommend that public health practitioners and policy makers install proactive measures for the imminent mitigation of an exotic pathogen outbreak.     

Ecological modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) pupal production in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background

Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites.

Methodology

Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts.

Findings

The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control programs.     

Zika Virus in Gabon (Central Africa) – 2007: A New Threat from Aedes albopictus?

Background

Chikungunya and dengue viruses emerged in Gabon in 2007, with large outbreaks primarily affecting the capital Libreville and several northern towns. Both viruses subsequently spread to the south-east of the country, with new outbreaks occurring in 2010. The mosquito species Aedes albopictus, that was known as a secondary vector for both viruses, recently invaded the country and was the primary vector involved in the Gabonese outbreaks. We conducted a retrospective study of human sera and mosquitoes collected in Gabon from 2007 to 2010, in order to identify other circulating arboviruses.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Sample collections, including 4312 sera from patients presenting with painful febrile disease, and 4665 mosquitoes belonging to 9 species, split into 247 pools (including 137 pools of Aedes albopictus), were screened with molecular biology methods. Five human sera and two Aedes albopictus pools, all sampled in an urban setting during the 2007 outbreak, were positive for the flavivirus Zika (ZIKV). The ratio of Aedes albopictus pools positive for ZIKV was similar to that positive for dengue virus during the concomitant dengue outbreak suggesting similar mosquito infection rates and, presumably, underlying a human ZIKV outbreak. ZIKV sequences from the envelope and NS3 genes were amplified from a human serum sample. Phylogenetic analysis placed the Gabonese ZIKV at a basal position in the African lineage, pointing to ancestral genetic diversification and spread.

Conclusions/Significance

We provide the first direct evidence of human ZIKV infections in Gabon, and its first occurrence in the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. These data reveal an unusual natural life cycle for this virus, occurring in an urban environment, and potentially representing a new emerging threat due to this novel association with a highly invasive vector whose geographic range is still expanding across the globe.     

Quantifying the emergence of dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998-2009

Background

An estimated 2.4 billion people live in areas at risk of dengue transmission, therefore the factors determining the establishment of endemic dengue in areas where transmission suitability is marginal is of considerable importance. Hanoi, Vietnam is such an area, and following a large dengue outbreak in 2009, we set out to determine if dengue is emerging in Hanoi.

Methods and Principal Findings

We undertook a temporal and spatial analysis of 25,983 dengue cases notified in Hanoi between 1998 and 2009. Age standardized incidence rates, standardized age of infection, and Standardized Morbidity Ratios (SMR) were calculated. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to determine if dengue incidence was increasing over time. Wavelet analysis was used to explore the periodicity of dengue transmission and the association with climate variables. After excluding the two major outbreak years of 1998 and 2009 and correcting for changes in population age structure, we identified a significant annual increase in the incidence of dengue cases over the period 1999–2008 (incidence rate ratio  = 1.38, 95% confidence interval  = 1.20–1.58, p value  = 0.002). The age of notified dengue cases in Hanoi is high, with a median age of 23 years (mean 26.3 years). After adjusting for changes in population age structure, there was no statistically significant change in the median or mean age of dengue cases over the period studied. Districts in the central, highly urban, area of Hanoi have the highest incidence of dengue (SMR>3).

Conclusions

Hanoi is a low dengue transmission setting where dengue incidence has been increasing year on year since 1999. This trend needs to be confirmed with serological surveys, followed by studies to determine the underlying drivers of this emergence. Such studies can provide insights into the biological, demographic, and environmental changes associated with vulnerability to the establishment of endemic dengue.     

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Risk Factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province,People's Republic of China

Objective

This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal trends of Shigella incidence rates in Jiangsu Province, People''s Republic of China. It also intended to explore complex risk modes facilitating Shigella transmission.

Methods

County-level incidence rates were obtained for analysis using geographic information system (GIS) tools. Trend surface and incidence maps were established to describe geographic distributions. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and autocorrelation analysis were used for detecting clusters. Based on the number of monthly Shigella cases, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model successfully established a time series model. A spatial correlation analysis and a case-control study were conducted to identify risk factors contributing to Shigella transmissions.

Results

The far southwestern and northwestern areas of Jiangsu were the most infected. A cluster was detected in southwestern Jiangsu (LLR = 11674.74, P<0.001). The time series model was established as ARIMA (1, 12, 0), which predicted well for cases from August to December, 2011. Highways and water sources potentially caused spatial variation in Shigella development in Jiangsu. The case-control study confirmed not washing hands before dinner (OR = 3.64) and not having access to a safe water source (OR = 2.04) as the main causes of Shigella in Jiangsu Province.

Conclusion

Improvement of sanitation and hygiene should be strengthened in economically developed counties, while access to a safe water supply in impoverished areas should be increased at the same time.     

Suppression of Virus Specific Immune Responses by IL-10 in Acute Dengue Infection

Background

Elevated IL-10 has been shown to be associated with severe dengue infection (DI). We proceeded to investigate the role of IL-10 in the pathogenesis of acute DI.

Materials and methods

Ex vivo and cultured IFNγ ELISpot assays for dengue virus (DENV) NS3 protein and non dengue viral proteins were carried out in 26 patients with acute DI (16 with dengue haemorrhagic fever) and 12 healthy dengue seropositive individuals from Sri Lanka. DENV serotype specific (SS) responses were determined by using a panel of SS peptides.

Results

Serum IL-10 level were significantly higher (p = 0.02) in those who did not have in vitro responses to DENV-SS peptides (mean 144.2 pg/ml) when compared to those who responded (mean 75.7 pg/ml). DENV-NS3 specific ex vivo IFNγ ELISpot responses were also significantly lower (p = 0.0001) in those who did not respond to DENV-SS peptides (mean 42 SFU/million PBMCs) when compared to those who responded to DENV-SS peptides (mean 1024 SFU/million PBMCs). Serum IL-10 levels correlated significantly (p = 0.03) and inversely (Spearmans R = −0.45) with ex vivo DENV-NS3 specific responses but not with ex vivo non DENV specific responses (Spearmans R = −014, p = 0.52). Blockage of IL-10 in vitro significantly increased (p = 0.04) the ex vivo IFNγ ELISpot DENV-NS3 specific responses but had no effect on responses to non DENV proteins.

Conclusion

IL-10 appears to contribute to the pathogenesis of acute dengue infections by inhibiting DENV-specific T cell responses, which can be restored by blocking IL-10.     

Iodine Deficiency and Excess Coexist in China and Induce Thyroid Dysfunction and Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

In spite of the salt iodization, iodine deficiency disorders (IDD) have not been sustainably eliminated in China. There are coastal areas with low iodized salt coverage rates (iodine nutrition is inadequate) and other areas with excessive amounts of iodine in the drinking water.

Objective

This study aimed to clarify the association of iodine deficiencies resulting from a low coverage rate of iodized salt, excess iodine intake from drinking water with thyroid function and disease in adults.

Design

A cross-sectional study was conducted in adults in different iodine nutrition areas in three provinces in China.

Results

The prevalence of thyroid nodules was 15.52%, 8.66% and 22.17% in the iodine excess, sufficient and deficient groups, respectively. The prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism was 20.09%, 10.41%, and 2.25% in the excess, sufficient and deficient iodine groups, respectively. The prevalence of subclinical hyperthyroidism and overt hyperthyroidism in the iodine deficient group was higher than that in the iodine excess group ( = 9.302, p = 0.002) and iodine sufficient group ( = 7.553, p = 0.006). Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) was significantly correlated with excess iodine intake (β = 1.764,P = 0.001) and deficient iodine intake (β = −1.219, P = 0.028).

Conclusions

Thyroid nodules are more likely to be present in the iodine excess and deficient areas than in the iodine sufficient areas. Subclinical hyperthyroidism and overt hyperthyroidism are more likely to be prevalent in the iodine deficient areas than in the iodine excess or sufficient areas. Subclinical hypothyroidism is more likely to be prevalent in the high iodine intake areas than in the iodine deficient or sufficient areas. Median TSH may be deemed as an alternative indicator for monitoring the iodine nutrition status of the adult population in iodine excess and deficient areas.     

Spatial Evaluation and Modeling of Dengue Seroprevalence and Vector Density in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Background

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, experienced a severe dengue fever epidemic in 2008. This was the worst epidemic ever, characterized by a sharp increase in case-fatality rate, mainly among younger individuals. A combination of factors, such as climate, mosquito abundance, buildup of the susceptible population, or viral evolution, could explain the severity of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to model the spatial patterns of dengue seroprevalence in three neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles in Rio de Janeiro. As blood sampling coincided with the peak of dengue transmission, we were also able to identify recent dengue infections and visually relate them to Aedes aegypti spatial distribution abundance. We analyzed individual and spatial factors associated with seroprevalence using Generalized Additive Model (GAM).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Three neighborhoods were investigated: a central urban neighborhood, and two isolated areas characterized as a slum and a suburban area. Weekly mosquito collections started in September 2006 and continued until March 2008. In each study area, 40 adult traps and 40 egg traps were installed in a random sample of premises, and two infestation indexes calculated: mean adult density and mean egg density. Sera from individuals living in the three neighborhoods were collected before the 2008 epidemic (July through November 2007) and during the epidemic (February through April 2008). Sera were tested for DENV-reactive IgM, IgG, Nested RT-PCR, and Real Time RT-PCR. From the before–after epidemics paired data, we described seroprevalence, recent dengue infections (asymptomatic or not), and seroconversion. Recent dengue infection varied from 1.3% to 14.1% among study areas. The highest IgM seropositivity occurred in the slum, where mosquito abundance was the lowest, but household conditions were the best for promoting contact between hosts and vectors. By fitting spatial GAM we found dengue seroprevalence hotspots located at the entrances of the two isolated communities, which are commercial activity areas with high human movement. No association between recent dengue infection and household''s high mosquito abundance was observed in this sample.

Conclusions/Significance

This study contributes to better understanding the dynamics of dengue in Rio de Janeiro by assessing the relationship between dengue seroprevalence, recent dengue infection, and vector density. In conclusion, the variation in spatial seroprevalence patterns inside the neighborhoods, with significantly higher risk patches close to the areas with large human movement, suggests that humans may be responsible for virus inflow to small neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro. Surveillance guidelines should be further discussed, considering these findings, particularly the spatial patterns for both human and mosquito populations.