Spatial modeling of data with excessive zeros applied to reindeer pellet‐group counts

We analyze a real data set pertaining to reindeer fecal pellet‐group counts obtained from a survey conducted in a forest area in northern Sweden. In the data set, over 70% of counts are zeros, and there is high spatial correlation. We use conditionally autoregressive random effects for modeling of spatial correlation in a Poisson generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), quasi‐Poisson hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM), zero‐inflated Poisson (ZIP), and hurdle models. The quasi‐Poisson HGLM allows for both under‐ and overdispersion with excessive zeros, while the ZIP and hurdle models allow only for overdispersion. In analyzing the real data set, we see that the quasi‐Poisson HGLMs can perform better than the other commonly used models, for example, ordinary Poisson HGLMs, spatial ZIP, and spatial hurdle models, and that the underdispersed Poisson HGLMs with spatial correlation fit the reindeer data best. We develop R codes for fitting these models using a unified algorithm for the HGLMs. Spatial count response with an extremely high proportion of zeros, and underdispersion can be successfully modeled using the quasi‐Poisson HGLM with spatial random effects.     

Bayesian covariance selection in generalized linear mixed models

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which extends the generalized linear model (GLM) to incorporate random effects characterizing heterogeneity among subjects, is widely used in analyzing correlated and longitudinal data. Although there is often interest in identifying the subset of predictors that have random effects, random effects selection can be challenging, particularly when outcome distributions are nonnormal. This article proposes a fully Bayesian approach to the problem of simultaneous selection of fixed and random effects in GLMMs. Integrating out the random effects induces a covariance structure on the multivariate outcome data, and an important problem that we also consider is that of covariance selection. Our approach relies on variable selection-type mixture priors for the components in a special Cholesky decomposition of the random effects covariance. A stochastic search MCMC algorithm is developed, which relies on Gibbs sampling, with Taylor series expansions used to approximate intractable integrals. Simulated data examples are presented for different exponential family distributions, and the approach is applied to discrete survival data from a time-to-pregnancy study.     

Multilevel models for survival analysis with random effects

A method for modeling survival data with multilevel clustering is described. The Cox partial likelihood is incorporated into the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) methodology. Parameter estimation is achieved by maximizing a log likelihood analogous to the likelihood associated with the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) at the initial step of estimation and is extended to obtain residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimators of the variance component. Estimating equations for a three-level hierarchical survival model are developed in detail, and such a model is applied to analyze a set of chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) data on recurrent infections as an illustration with both hospital and patient effects being considered as random. Only the latter gives a significant contribution. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the REML estimators. Further extension of the estimation procedure to models with an arbitrary number of levels is also discussed.     

Use of Generalised Linear Mixed Models for the Analysis of Clustered Survival Data

Data from a litter matched tumorigenesis experiment are analysed using a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) approach to the analysis of clustered survival data in which there is a dependence of failure time observations within the same litter. Maximum likelihood (ML) and residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of risk variable parameters, variance component parameters and the prediction of random effects are given. Estimation of treatment effect parameter (carcinogen effect) has good agreement with previous analyses obtained in the literature though the dependence structure within a litter is modelled in different ways. The variance component estimation provides the estimated dispersion of the random effects. The prediction of random effects, is useful, for instance, in identifying high risk litters and individuals. The present analysis illustrates its wider application to detecting increased risk of occurrence of disease in particular families of a study population.     

Generalized linear mixed models for mapping multiple quantitative trait loci

Many biological traits are discretely distributed in phenotype but continuously distributed in genetics because they are controlled by multiple genes and environmental variants. Due to the quantitative nature of the genetic background, these multiple genes are called quantitative trait loci (QTL). When the QTL effects are treated as random, they can be estimated in a single generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), even if the number of QTL may be larger than the sample size. The GLMM in its original form cannot be applied to QTL mapping for discrete traits if there are missing genotypes. We examined two alternative missing genotype-handling methods: the expectation method and the overdispersion method. Simulation studies show that the two methods are efficient for multiple QTL mapping (MQM) under the GLMM framework. The overdispersion method showed slight advantages over the expectation method in terms of smaller mean-squared errors of the estimated QTL effects. The two methods of GLMM were applied to MQM for the female fertility trait of wheat. Multiple QTL were detected to control the variation of the number of seeded spikelets.     

A general approach to mixed effects modeling of residual variances in generalized linear mixed models

We propose a general Bayesian approach to heteroskedastic error modeling for generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) in which linked functions of conditional means and residual variances are specified as separate linear combinations of fixed and random effects. We focus on the linear mixed model (LMM) analysis of birth weight (BW) and the cumulative probit mixed model (CPMM) analysis of calving ease (CE). The deviance information criterion (DIC) was demonstrated to be useful in correctly choosing between homoskedastic and heteroskedastic error GLMM for both traits when data was generated according to a mixed model specification for both location parameters and residual variances. Heteroskedastic error LMM and CPMM were fitted, respectively, to BW and CE data on 8847 Italian Piemontese first parity dams in which residual variances were modeled as functions of fixed calf sex and random herd effects. The posterior mean residual variance for male calves was over 40% greater than that for female calves for both traits. Also, the posterior means of the standard deviation of the herd-specific variance ratios (relative to a unitary baseline) were estimated to be 0.60 ± 0.09 for BW and 0.74 ± 0.14 for CE. For both traits, the heteroskedastic error LMM and CPMM were chosen over their homoskedastic error counterparts based on DIC values.     

Spatial models for spatial statistics: some unification

A general statistical framework is proposed for comparing linear models of spatial process and pattern. A spatial linear model for nested analysis of variance can be based on either fixed effects or random effects. Greig-Smith (1952) originally used a fixed effects model, but there are also examples of random effects models in the soil science literature. Assuming intrinsic stationarity for a linear model, the expectations of a spatial nested ANOVA and two term local variance (TTLV, Hill 1973) are functions of the variogram, and several examples are given. Paired quadrat variance (PQV, Ludwig & Goodall 1978) is a variogram estimator which can be used to approximate TTLV, and we provide an example from ecological data. Both nested ANOVA and TTLV can be seen as weighted lag-1 variogram estimators that are functions of support, rather than distance. We show that there are two unbiased estimators for the variogram under aggregation, and computer simulation shows that the estimator with smaller variance depends on the process autocorrelation.     

Neural networks for clustered and longitudinal data using mixed effects models

Although most statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data have focused on retrospective models of association, new advances in mobile health data have presented opportunities for predicting future health status by leveraging an individual's behavioral history alongside data from similar patients. Methods that incorporate both individual-level and sample-level effects are critical to using these data to its full predictive capacity. Neural networks are powerful tools for prediction, but many assume input observations are independent even when they are clustered or correlated in some way, such as in longitudinal data. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) provide a flexible framework for modeling longitudinal data but have poor predictive power particularly when the data are highly nonlinear. We propose a generalized neural network mixed model that replaces the linear fixed effect in a GLMM with the output of a feed-forward neural network. The model simultaneously accounts for the correlation structure and complex nonlinear relationship between input variables and outcomes, and it utilizes the predictive power of neural networks. We apply this approach to predict depression and anxiety levels of schizophrenic patients using longitudinal data collected from passive smartphone sensor data.     

Modeling continuous auxiliary covariate data in generalized linear mixed models using the kernel smoother

Auxiliary covariate data are often collected in biomedical studies when the primary exposure variable is only assessed on a subset of the study subjects. In this study, we investigate a semiparametric‐estimated likelihood estimation for the generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) in the presence of a continuous auxiliary variable. We use a kernel smoother to handle continuous auxiliary data. The method can be used to deal with missing or mismeasured covariate data problems in a variety of applications when an auxiliary variable is available and cluster sizes are not too small. Simulation study results show that the proposed method performs better than that which ignores the random effects in GLMM and that which only uses data in the validation data set. We illustrate the proposed method with a real data set from a recent environmental epidemiology study on the maternal serum 1,1‐dichloro‐2,2‐bis(p‐chlorophenyl) ethylene level in relationship to preterm births.     

Robustness of Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) Tests of Significance against Misspecification of the Error Structure Model

Generalized linear model analyses of repeated measurements typically rely on simplifying mathematical models of the error covariance structure for testing the significance of differences in patterns of change across time. The robustness of the tests of significance depends, not only on the degree of agreement between the specified mathematical model and the actual population data structure, but also on the precision and robustness of the computational criteria for fitting the specified covariance structure to the data. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) solutions utilizing the robust empirical sandwich estimator for modeling of the error structure were compared with general linear mixed model (GLMM) solutions that utilized the commonly employed restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedure. Under the conditions considered, the GEE and GLMM procedures were identical in assuming that the data are normally distributed and that the variance‐covariance structure of the data is the one specified by the user. The question addressed in this article concerns relative sensitivity of tests of significance for treatment effects to varying degrees of misspecification of the error covariance structure model when fitted by the alternative procedures. Simulated data that were subjected to monte carlo evaluation of actual Type I error and power of tests of the equal slopes hypothesis conformed to assumptions of ordinary linear model ANOVA for repeated measures except for autoregressive covariance structures and missing data due to dropouts. The actual within‐groups correlation structures of the simulated repeated measurements ranged from AR(1) to compound symmetry in graded steps, whereas the GEE and GLMM formulations restricted the respective error structure models to be either AR(1), compound symmetry (CS), or unstructured (UN). The GEE‐based tests utilizing empirical sandwich estimator criteria were documented to be relatively insensitive to misspecification of the covariance structure models, whereas GLMM tests which relied on restricted maximum likelihood (REML) were highly sensitive to relatively modest misspecification of the error correlation structure even though normality, variance homogeneity, and linearity were not an issue in the simulated data.Goodness‐of‐fit statistics were of little utility in identifying cases in which relatively minor misspecification of the GLMM error structure model resulted in inadequate alpha protection for tests of the equal slopes hypothesis. Both GEE and GLMM formulations that relied on unstructured (UN) error model specification produced nonconservative results regardless of the actual correlation structure of the repeated measurements. A random coefficients model produced robust tests with competitive power across all conditions examined. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)