Phenotypic selection in natural populations: what limits directional selection?

Studies of phenotypic selection document directional selection in many natural populations. What factors reduce total directional selection and the cumulative evolutionary responses to selection? We combine two data sets for phenotypic selection, representing more than 4,600 distinct estimates of selection from 143 studies, to evaluate the potential roles of fitness trade-offs, indirect (correlated) selection, temporally varying selection, and stabilizing selection for reducing net directional selection and cumulative responses to selection. We detected little evidence that trade-offs among different fitness components reduced total directional selection in most study systems. Comparisons of selection gradients and selection differentials suggest that correlated selection frequently reduced total selection on size but not on other types of traits. The direction of selection on a trait often changes over time in many temporally replicated studies, but these fluctuations have limited impact in reducing cumulative directional selection in most study systems. Analyses of quadratic selection gradients indicated stabilizing selection on body size in at least some studies but provided little evidence that stabilizing selection is more common than disruptive selection for most traits or study systems. Our analyses provide little evidence that fitness trade-offs, correlated selection, or stabilizing selection strongly constrains the directional selection reported for most quantitative traits.     

EXAMINING SELECTION ON THE MULTIVARIATE PHENOTYPE: PLANT RESISTANCE TO HERBIVORES

Cost–benefit theory posits that stabilizing selection, produced by a trade-off between associated costs and benefits, often maintains phenotypic traits at intermediate equilibrium values. Measurement of selection on one type of trait, resistance to herbivory, should provide evidence to test this prediction. However, most plants host more than one species of herbivore, and resistance to various herbivores may be phenotypically correlated. Consequently, selection must be measured on a multivariate phenotype, which may produce a very complex selection gradient. Canonical analysis of the matrix of quadratic coefficients of the phenotypic selection gradient is presented as a method to simplify the interpretation of the estimated multidimensional adaptive surface. Because this analytical method finds the canonical axes of second-order effects on the selection surface, it shows where nonlinear, and possibly stabilizing, selection is strongest. The resulting index traits may generate hypotheses regarding underlying resistance traits to which more than one type of herbivore responds.     

Stabilizing sexual selection for female ornaments in a dance fly

Ornamental traits function by improving attractiveness and are generally presumed to experience directional selection for mating success. However, given the greater investment of females in offspring than males, female-specific ornaments can in theory signal fecundity yet be constrained by fecundity costs. Theoretical work predicts that such constraints can lead to stabilizing selection via male choice for intermediately ornamented females. Female dance flies Rhamphomyia longicauda (Diptera: Empididae) display two female-specific ornaments in mating swarms - inflatable abdominal sacs and pinnate tibial scales. We investigated the intensity and form of sexual selection on female traits including ornaments and found no evidence for directional sexual selection. Instead, we found marginally nonsignificant quadratic selection for all three measures of ornament expression. Canonical analysis confirmed that the strongest vectors of nonlinear selection were associated with ornamental traits, although the significance of the quadratic coefficients associated with these vectors depended on the statistical approach. Direct Mitchell-Olds and Shaw tests for the location of the maximum fitted fitness value for both raw morphological traits and canonical axes revealed only one marginally nonsignificant result for the multivariate axis loading most heavily on pinnate leg scales. Together, these results provide the first tentative support for stabilizing selection on female-specific ornaments.     

Constrained evolution of the sex comb in Drosophila simulans

Male fitness is dependent on sexual traits that influence mate acquisition (precopulatory sexual selection) and paternity (post‐copulatory sexual selection), and although many studies have documented the form of selection in one or the other of these arenas, fewer have done it for both. Nonetheless, it appears that the dominant form of sexual selection is directional, although theoretically, populations should converge on peaks in the fitness surface, where selection is stabilizing. Many factors, however, can prevent populations from reaching adaptive peaks. Genetic constraints can be important if they prevent the development of highest fitness phenotypes, as can the direction of selection if it reverses across episodes of selection. In this study, we examine the evidence that these processes influence the evolution of the multivariate sex comb morphology of male Drosophila simulans. To do this, we conduct a quantitative genetic study together with a multivariate selection analysis to infer how the genetic architecture and selection interact. We find abundant genetic variance and covariance in elements of the sex comb. However, there was little evidence for directional selection in either arena. Significant nonlinear selection was detected prior to copulation when males were mated to nonvirgin females, and post‐copulation during sperm offence (again with males mated to nonvirgins). Thus, contrary to our predictions, the evolution of the D. simulans sex comb is limited neither by genetic constraints nor by antagonistic selection between pre‐ and post‐copulatory arenas, but nonlinear selection on the multivariate phenotype may prevent sex combs from evolving to reach some fitness maximizing optima.     

Experimental evidence for multivariate stabilizing sexual selection

Stabilizing selection is a fundamental concept in evolutionary biology. In the presence of a single intermediate optimum phenotype (fitness peak) on the fitness surface, stabilizing selection should cause the population to evolve toward such a peak. This prediction has seldom been tested, particularly for suites of correlated traits. The lack of tests for an evolutionary match between population means and adaptive peaks may be due, at least in part, to problems associated with empirically detecting multivariate stabilizing selection and with testing whether population means are at the peak of multivariate fitness surfaces. Here we show how canonical analysis of the fitness surface, combined with the estimation of confidence regions for stationary points on quadratic response surfaces, may be used to define multivariate stabilizing selection on a suite of traits and to establish whether natural populations reside on the multivariate peak. We manufactured artificial advertisement calls of the male cricket Teleogryllus commodus and played them back to females in laboratory phonotaxis trials to estimate the linear and nonlinear sexual selection that female phonotactic choice imposes on male call structure. Significant nonlinear selection on the major axes of the fitness surface was convex in nature and displayed an intermediate optimum, indicating multivariate stabilizing selection. The mean phenotypes of four independent samples of males, from the same population as the females used in phonotaxis trials, were within the 95% confidence region for the fitness peak. These experiments indicate that stabilizing sexual selection may play an important role in the evolution of male call properties in natural populations of T. commodus.     

Multivariate sexual selection on male song structure in wild populations of sagebrush crickets,Cyphoderris strepitans (Orthoptera: Haglidae)

While a number of studies have measured multivariate sexual selection acting on sexual signals in wild populations, few have confirmed these findings with experimental manipulation. Sagebrush crickets are ideally suited to such investigations because mating imposes an unambiguous phenotypic marker on males arising from nuptial feeding by females. We quantified sexual selection operating on male song by recording songs of virgin and mated males captured from three wild populations. To determine the extent to which selection on male song is influenced by female preference, we conducted a companion study in which we synthesized male songs and broadcast them to females in choice trials. Multivariate selection analysis revealed a saddle‐shaped fitness surface, the highest peak of which corresponded to longer train and pulse durations, and longer intertrain intervals. Longer trains and pulses likely promote greater mate attraction, but selection for longer intertrain durations suggests that energetic constraints may necessitate “time outs”. Playback trials confirmed the selection for longer train and pulse durations, and revealed significant stabilizing selection on dominant frequency, suggesting that the female auditory system is tightly tuned to the species‐specific call frequency. Collectively, our results revealed a complex pattern of multivariate nonlinear selection characterized primarily by strong stabilizing and disruptive selection on male song traits.     

Natural selection, evolvability and bias due to environmental covariance in the field in an annual plant

Estimates of the form and magnitude of natural selection based on phenotypic relationships between traits and fitness measures can be biased when environmental factors influence both relative fitness and phenotypic trait values. I quantified genetic variances and covariances, and estimated linear and quadratic selection coefficients, for seven traits of an annual plant grown in the field. For replicates of 50 paternal half-sib families, coefficients of selection were calculated both for individual phenotypic values of the traits and for half-sib family mean values. The potential for evolutionary response was supported by significant heritability and phenotypic directional selection for several traits but contradicted by the absence of significant genetic variation for fitness estimates and evidence of bias in phenotypic selection coefficients due to environmental covariance for at least two of the traits analysed. Only studies of a much wider range of organisms and traits will reveal the frequency and extent of such bias.     

ESTIMATING NONLINEAR SELECTION GRADIENTS USING QUADRATIC REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: DOUBLE OR NOTHING?

The use of regression analysis has been instrumental in allowing evolutionary biologists to estimate the strength and mode of natural selection. Although directional and correlational selection gradients are equal to their corresponding regression coefficients, quadratic regression coefficients must be doubled to estimate stabilizing/disruptive selection gradients. Based on a sample of 33 papers published in Evolution between 2002 and 2007, at least 78% of papers have not doubled quadratic regression coefficients, leading to an appreciable underestimate of the strength of stabilizing and disruptive selection. Proper treatment of quadratic regression coefficients is necessary for estimation of fitness surfaces and contour plots, canonical analysis of the gamma matrix, and modeling the evolution of populations on an adaptive landscape.     

Multivariate heredity of melanin-based coloration,body mass and immunity

The genetic covariation among different traits may cause the appearance of correlated response to selection on multivariate phenotypes. Genes responsible for the expression of melanin-based color traits are also involved in other important physiological functions such as immunity and metabolism by pleiotropy, suggesting the possibility of multivariate evolution. However, little is known about the relationship between melanin coloration and these functions at the additive genetic level in wild vertebrates. From a multivariate perspective, we simultaneously explored inheritance and selection of melanin coloration, body mass and phytohemagglutinin (PHA)-mediated immune response by using long-term data over an 18-year period collected in a wild population of the common kestrel Falco tinnunculus. Pedigree-based quantitative genetic analyses showed negative genetic covariance between melanin-based coloration and body mass in male adults and positive genetic covariance between body mass and PHA-mediated immune response in fledglings as predicted by pleiotropic effects of melanocortin receptor activity. Multiple selection analyses showed an increased fitness in male adults with intermediate phenotypic values for melanin color and body mass. In male fledglings, there was evidence for a disruptive selection on rump gray color, but a stabilizing selection on PHA-mediated immune response. Our results provide an insight into the evolution of multivariate traits genetically related with melanin-based coloration. The differences in multivariate inheritance and selection between male and female kestrels might have resulted in sexual dimorphism in size and color. When pleiotropic effects are present, coloration can evolve through a complex pathway involving correlated response to selection on multivariate traits.     

Spatial variation in phenotypic selection on floral characteristics in an epiphytic orchid

Spatial variation in twelve floral characters was examined in an epiphytic orchidLepanthes rupestris to evaluate the strength and direction of phenotypic selection in seven riparian populations along two river basins in the Caribbean National Forest “El Yunque” for a range of 18–34 months. We evaluated selection on floral characters based on male (pollinaria removal) and female fitness (fruit set). Simple linear and quadratic regressions were used to evaluate the strength of directional, disruptive and stabilizing selections. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to estimate the total strength of the selection acting on a character. Phenotypic selection was inconsistent among characters and populations. Few of the characters appeared to be under selection and none of them was found to be consistent throughout all populations. Inconsistency in selection coefficients among populations could suggest that selection is spatially variable. We only noted one character (column length) which had some consistency in differential selection coefficients among populations. Previous studies have shown that effective population sizes inL. rupestris are small and the observed “fitness differences” among populations could as easily be explained as stochastic events at play. We argue that the observed “fitness differences” in most characters and inconsistency among populations are likely from stochastic noise and not phenotypic selection. Consequently, we propose that random selection on character state support the hypothesis of genetic drift in small orchid populations.     

Can phenotypic selection on floral traits explain the presence of enigmatic intermediate individuals in sympatric populations of Platanthera bifolia and P. chlorantha (Orchidaceae)?

Pollinators represent one of the main agents of selection on floral traits. Here, we estimated phenotypic selection on floral morphology and phenology in a sympatric population of two orchid species, Platanthera bifolia and P. chlorantha, including enigmatic individuals with intermediate column morphology (as reflected by the distance between viscidia and caudicle length, two traits involved in assortative mating and reproductive isolation among Platanthera species), but genetically indistinguishable from P. bifolia. Our aim was to clarify whether the occurrence of intermediate phenotypes could be explained by the presence of selective pressures exerted by pollinators. Simple linear and quadratic regressions together with univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the strength of directional, disruptive and stabilizing selection. We found that selection on phenotypic traits varied between groups and sex functions. Contrary to our hypothesis, selection on the viscidia distance and caudicle length appeared to be consistent in the two P. bifolia groups. Interestingly, the viscidia distance was under significant stabilizing selection through female reproductive success in intermediate individuals. Based on these results, we conclude that, despite a significant selective pressure on some phenotypic traits, the presence of individuals with intermediate phenotype is not due to selection. Stabilizing selection on distance between viscidia in intermediate individuals may suggest that assortative mating play a role in the maintenance of this phenotypic polymorphism.     

SELECTION ON MOTHERS AND OFFSPRING: WHOSE PHENOTYPE IS IT AND DOES IT MATTER?

Reproductive and early life-history traits can be considered aspects of either offspring or maternal phenotype, and their evolution will therefore depend on selection operating through offspring and maternal components of fitness. Furthermore, selection at these levels may be antagonistic, with optimal offspring and maternal fitness occurring at different phenotypic values. We examined selection regimes on the correlated traits of birth weight, birth date, and litter size in Soay sheep (Ovis aries) using data from a long-term study of a free-living population on the archipelago of St. Kilda, Scotland. We tested the hypothesis that selective constraints on the evolution of the multivariate phenotype arise through antagonistic selection, either acting at offspring and maternal levels, or on correlated aspects of phenotype. All three traits were found to be under selection through variance in short-term and lifetime measures of fitness. Analysis of lifetime fitness revealed strong positive directional selection on birth weight and weaker selection for increased birth date at both levels. However, there was also evidence for stabilizing selection on these traits at the maternal level, with reduced fitness at high phenotypic values indicating lower phenotypic optima for mothers than for offspring. Additionally, antagonistic selection was found on litter size. From the offspring's point of view it is better to be born a singleton, whereas maternal fitness increases with average litter size. The decreased fitness of twins is caused by their reduced birth weight; therefore, this antagonistic selection likely results from trade-offs between litter size and birth weight that have different optimal resolutions with respect to offspring and maternal fitness. Our results highlight how selection regimes may vary depending on the assignment of reproductive and early life-history traits to either offspring or maternal phenotype.     

Synthetic analyses of phenotypic selection in natural populations: lessons, limitations and future directions

There are now thousands of estimates of phenotypic selection in natural populations, resulting in multiple synthetic reviews of these data. Here we consider several major lessons and limitations emerging from these syntheses, and how they may guide future studies of selection in the wild. First, we review past analyses of the patterns of directional selection. We present new meta-analyses that confirm differences in the direction and magnitude of selection for different types of traits and fitness components. Second, we describe patterns of temporal and spatial variation in directional selection, and their implications for cumulative selection and directional evolution. Meta-analyses suggest that sampling error contributes importantly to observed temporal variation in selection, and indicate that evidence for frequent temporal changes in the direction of selection in natural populations is limited. Third, we review the apparent lack of evidence for widespread stabilizing selection, and discuss biological and methodological explanations for this pattern. Finally, we describe how sampling error, statistical biases, choice of traits, fitness measures and selection metrics, environmental covariance and other factors may limit the inferences we can draw from analyses of selection coefficients. Current standardized selection metrics based on simple parametric statistical models may be inadequate for understanding patterns of non-linear selection and complex fitness surfaces. We highlight three promising areas for expanding our understanding of selection in the wild: (1) field studies of stabilizing selection, selection on physiological and behavioral traits, and the ecological causes of selection; (2) new statistical models and methods that connect phenotypic variation to population demography and selection; and (3) availability of the underlying individual-level data sets from past and future selection studies, which will allow comprehensive modeling of selection and fitness variation within and across systems, rather than meta-analyses of standardized selection metrics.     

VARIABLE SELECTION ALONG A SUCCESSIONAL GRADIENT

Patterns of selection were measured in populations of the perennial grass Danthonia spicata from a successional gradient in northern lower Michigan for a five-year period. Phenotypic variation was found both within and among populations for morphological, reproductive, and life-history traits. Two fitness components were measured: fecundity (total number of spikelets produced) and mortality (number of years an individual lived). Multiple-regression analysis of relative reproductive effort (percentage of culms that flowered), culm length, and leaf length against fitness showed substantial variation in the magnitude and direction of selection among the populations and among the fitness components. When three other reproductive traits were added to the analysis, there were no qualitative changes in estimates of directional selection coefficients, but there were pronounced changes in estimates of stabilizing/disruptive selection components. Patterns of selection were concordant with previously measured genetic changes in reproductive effort along the successional gradient but not concordant with genetic changes in culm length and leaf length. These same patterns were found in comparisons of Michigan and North Carolina populations.     

Selection on floral and carbon uptake traits of Lobelia siphilitica is similar in females and hermaphrodites

Sexual dimorphism is common in plants and animals. Although this dimorphism is often assumed to be adaptive, natural selection has rarely been measured on sexually dimorphic traits of plants. We measured phenotypic selection via seed set on two floral and four carbon uptake traits of female and hermaphrodite Lobelia siphilitica. Because females can reproduce only via seeds, which are costlier than pollen, we predicted that females with smaller flowers and enhanced carbon uptake would have higher fitness, resulting in either sex morph-specific directional selection or stabilizing selection for different optimal trait values in females and hermaphrodites. We found that directional selection on one carbon uptake trait differed between females and hermaphrodites. We did not detect significant stabilizing selection on traits of either sex morph. Our results provide little support for the hypothesis that sexual dimorphism in gynodioecious plants evolved in response to sex morph-specific selection.     

Natural selection on immune defense: A field experiment

Predicting the evolution of phenotypic traits requires an understanding of natural selection on them. Despite its indispensability in the fight against parasites, selection on host immune defense has remained understudied. Theory predicts immune traits to be under stabilizing selection due to associated trade‐offs with other fitness‐related traits. Empirical studies, however, report mainly positive directional selection. This discrepancy could be caused by low phenotypic variation in the examined individuals and/or variation in host resource level that confounds trade‐offs in empirical studies. In a field experiment where we maintained Lymnaea stagnalis snails individually in cages in a lake, we investigated phenotypic selection on two immune defense traits, phenoloxidase (PO)‐like activity and antibacterial activity, in hemolymph. We used a diverse laboratory population and manipulated snail resource level by limiting their food supply. For six weeks, we followed immune activity, growth, and two fitness components, survival and fecundity of snails. We found that PO‐like activity and growth were under stabilizing selection, while antibacterial activity was under positive directional selection. Selection on immune traits was mainly driven by variation in survival. The form of selection on immune defense apparently depends on the particular trait, possibly due to its importance for countering the present parasite community.     

Natural selection on quantitative immune defence traits: a comparison between theory and data

Parasites present a threat for free‐living species and affect several ecological and evolutionary processes. Immune defence is the main physiological barrier against infections, and understanding its evolution is central for predicting disease dynamics. I review theoretical predictions and empirical data on natural selection on quantitative immune defence traits in the wild. Evolutionary theory predicts immune traits to be under stabilizing selection owing to trade‐offs between immune function and life‐history traits. Empirical data, however, support mainly positive directional selection, but also show variation in the form of selection among study systems, immune traits and fitness components. I argue that the differences between theory and empirical data may at least partly arise from methodological difficulties in testing stabilizing selection as well as measuring fitness. I also argue that the commonness of positive directional selection and the variation in selection may be caused by several biological factors. First, selection on immune function may show spatial and temporal variation as epidemics are often local/seasonal. Second, factors affecting the range of phenotypic variation in immune traits could alter potential for selection. Third, different parasites may impose different selective pressures depending on their characteristics. Fourth, condition dependence of immune defence can obscure trade‐offs related to it, thus possibly modifying observed selection gradients. Fifth, nonimmunological defences could affect the form of selection by reducing the benefits of strong immune function. To comprehensively understand the evolution of immune defence, the role of above factors should be considered in future studies.     

A PATH-ANALYTIC MODEL FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF SELECTION ON MORPHOLOGY

This paper describes a path model for the analysis of phenotypic selection upon continuous morphological characters. The path-analysis model assumes that selection occurs on unmeasured general size and shape allometry factors that summarize linear relations among sets of ontogenetically, phylogenetically, or functionally related traits. An unmeasured factor for general size is considered the only aspect of morphometric covariance matrices for which there is an a priori biological explanation. Consequently, selection coefficients are derived for each measured character by holding constant only a general size factor, rather than by using multiple regression to adjust for the full covariance matrix. Fitness is treated as an unmeasured factor with loadings, representing directional selection coefficients, computed as the covariances of the size-adjusted characters with the measured fitness indicator. The magnitudes and signs of the selection coefficients, combined with biological insight, may suggest hypotheses of selection on one or more shape allometry factors. Hypotheses of selection on general size and shape allometry factors are evaluated through cycles of measurement, analysis, and experimentation, designed to refine the path diagram depicting the covariances among the measured characters, the measured indicator of fitness, and unmeasured factors for morphology and fitness. The path-analysis and multiple-regression models were applied to data from remeasurement of Lande and Arnold's (1983) pentatomid bugs and to Bumpus's (1899) data on house sparrows. The path analysis suggested the hypothesis that variation in bug survivorship was an expression of directional selection on wing loading. Bumpus's data are consistent with a hypothesis of stabilizing selection on general size in females and directional selection for small wing size relative to body size in males.     

Effects of polyandry on male phenotypic diversity

Polyandry has the potential to affect the distribution of phenotypes and to shape the direction of sexual selection. Here, we explore this potential using Trinidadian guppies as a model system and ask whether polyandry leads to directional and/or diversifying selection of male phenotypic traits. In this study, we compare the phenotypic diversity of offspring from multiply and singly sired broods. To quantify phenotypic diversity, we first combine phenotypic traits using multivariate methods, and then take the dispersion of individuals in multivariate space as our measure of diversity. We show that, when each trait is examined separately, polyandry generates offspring with a higher proportion of bright coloration, indicating directional selection. However, our multivariate approach reveals that this directionality is accompanied by an increase in phenotypic diversity. These results suggest that polyandry (i) selects for the production of sons with the preferred brighter colour phenotypes whereas (ii) enhancing the diversity of male sexual traits. Promoting phenotypic diversity may be advantageous in coping with environmental and reproductive variability by increasing long‐term fitness.