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1.
农田生态系统土壤有机碳库及其影响因子   总被引:37,自引:2,他引:35  
土壤有机碳(SOC)的数量和质量在很大程度上与维持和提高土壤肥力密切相关。农田生态系统土壤碳库研究一直是农业、生态和环境领域的一个主要方向。土地利用、耕作、作物类型、种植密度、灌溉、施肥以及其他人为活动等,对农田生态系统土壤有机碳库的变化均能产生影响。本文综合评述了农田生态系统土壤有机碳库及其影响因子,土壤碳截获潜力,维持和提高土壤有机碳库的措施,以及农田土壤碳截获在温室气体减排及气候变化中的潜在作用等,最后提出了农田生态系统土壤有机碳库研究的主要方向。  相似文献   

2.
典型黑土区不同生态系统土壤团聚体有机碳分布特征   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:5  
基于团聚体分组和闭蓄态微团聚体分离技术,利用典型黑土区27年长期定位试验,研究草地生态系统、农田生态系统和裸地生态系统下土壤团聚体及团聚体内部组分中有机碳的分布,以解析不同生态系统下土壤团聚体和有机碳固持间的关系,揭示黑土有机碳的物理稳定性机制。结果显示:与农田相比,草地土壤有机碳含量显著提高7.6%;裸地土壤有机碳含量显著下降14.1%。草地促进了大团聚体(250μm),尤其2000μm团聚体的形成,提高了土壤团聚体的稳定性;裸地则降低了土壤的团聚化程度及稳定性,大团聚体和微团聚体含量下降,粉粘粒含量相应增加。草地大团聚体中有机碳含量显著高于农田,且内部各组分有机碳含量均有显著提高,其中粗颗粒有机质、闭蓄态微团聚体和粉黏粒有机碳含量增幅分别为600%、54%和65%;裸地增加了粉粘粒结合有机碳含量,降低了大团聚体和微团聚体中有机碳含量,且大团聚体和微团聚体内部各组分有机碳含量均有所下降。3种生态系统类型土壤均以总粉粘粒结合有机碳为主,占土壤总有机碳52%—79%,其作为惰性碳库是黑土有机碳的重要组成部分。黑土有机碳的累积或损失主要表现为活性较强的有机碳库-团聚体中颗粒有机质的增加或减少,与农田相比,草地土壤有机碳的累积主要归因于大团聚体中粗颗粒有机质的增加,为总有机碳增量的3倍;裸地土壤有机碳的损失主要归因于微团聚体中总细颗粒有机质的减少,对总有机碳损失的贡献率为60%。  相似文献   

3.
明确干旱区农田开垦过程中土壤有机碳变化及其影响因素对评估其固存特征具有重要意义。本研究以乌兰布和沙漠东北部不同开垦年限(2~5、12~15、25~30、40~50年)农田为对象,以未开垦的自然土壤为对照,采用空间代替时间的研究方法,探究农田开垦过程中0~2 m土层内土壤有机碳密度变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明: 随开垦年限的增加,浅层(0~0.4 m)土壤有机碳密度呈持续增加趋势,但农田土壤有机碳密度均处于较低水平(0.990~1.983 kg·m-2)。深层(1.2~2 m)土壤有机碳密度在开垦年限较长(25~30和40~50年)的农田中有所增加,而在开垦年限较短(2~5和12~15年)的农田中无增加趋势。未开垦土壤和各耕作年限农田深层土壤有机碳密度在0~2 m土层中占比较大(28.9%~38.6%)。不同耕作年限农田中土壤有机碳密度随土层深度的增加均呈先减小后增大的二次函数关系,且拟合度较高(R2为0.757~0.972)。土壤黏粒和粉粒含量是影响0~2 m土层有机碳密度的关键因素,且耕作年限对浅层(0~0.4 m)土壤有机碳的积累具有重要促进作用。  相似文献   

4.
子午岭林区生态系统转换对土壤有机碳特征的影响   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
生态系统转换影响土壤有机碳的动态、循环及环境质量.本研究分析了子午岭林区农田、草地、灌丛和森林不同生态系统土壤总有机碳、活性有机碳和稳定性有机碳含量.结果显示:各生态系统中,表层(0~10 cm)土壤总有机碳含量显著高于深层土壤(40~70 cm).与农田生态系统表层土壤相比,草地、灌丛、森林生态系统土壤总有机碳含量分别增加82.07%、121.67%和183.16%,深层土壤有机碳含量也有类似的趋势;从增加的绝对值来看,表层土壤活性有机碳含量分别增加2.24、4.13和5.43 g/kg,土壤稳定性有机碳含量分别增加4.76、6.23和10.18g/kg.表明农田生态系统转换为林、草生态系统,有利于土壤有机碳的积累.而且,土壤作为碳“汇”的功能增强,更有利于CO2固定和生态环境改善.  相似文献   

5.
土地利用变化对土壤有机碳贮量的影响   总被引:97,自引:10,他引:87  
通过对比分析六盘山林区典型天然次生林(杂灌林、山杨和辽东栎林)与农田、草地及农田、草地与人工林(13、18和25年生华北落叶松)邻近样地土壤有机碳含量和密度及其在土壤剖面上分布的差异,研究了天然次生林变成农田或草地及农田或草地造林后对土壤有机碳贮量的影响,结果表明,土壤有机碳含量方面,农田和草地比天然次生林分别低54%和27%,差异主要在0~50cm土层;农田和草地比人工林分别低42%和26%,差异主要在0~40cm土层,土壤有机碳密度方面,农田和草地比天然次生林分别低35%和14%,差异主要在0~50cm土层;农田比人工林低23%,草地比人工林高4%,差异主要在0~30cm土层.天然次生林和人工林土壤有机碳含量和密度随土层加深而递减的幅度比农田或草地大.这些差异主要由土地利用变化引起的土壤有机碳输入与输出及根系分布的变化所致.结果说明六盘山林区天然次生林破坏变成草地或农田后土壤有机碳含量和密度(主要是0~50cm土层)将下降,而农田中造林后土壤有机碳含量和密度(主要是0~30cm土层)又将增加,草地上造林后土壤有机碳含量增加而密度变化不大。另外,土壤有机碳含量和密度在土壤剖面上的分布也将随土地利用变化而发生改变。  相似文献   

6.
天山北坡雪岭云杉林地开垦的土壤有机碳损失估算   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
常亚鹏  李路  许仲林 《生态学报》2017,37(4):1168-1173
在全球变暖的背景下,由土地利用变化导致的土壤碳库的变化已经受到越来越多的关注。首先采用物种分布模型预测了天山北坡雪岭云杉林的潜在分布,其次估计了与被开垦为农田的雪岭云杉林面积(PSC)以及由林地开垦为农田造成的有机碳损失。PSC分别由雪岭云杉林的现实分布、潜在分布和农田的现实分布确定。云杉林地和农田的土壤有机碳含量由野外采样和实验室分析获得。研究发现,PSC面积为2.68×10~6hm~2,被开垦为农田的雪岭云杉林土壤有机碳的损失为171.7 t/hm~2;研究区总有机碳的损失为459.70Tg。结果表明,研究区的林地恢复和重建项目将会使土壤有机碳储量有所增加,且土壤表层的增加量多于深层。  相似文献   

7.
徐万里  唐光木  盛建东  梁智  周勃  朱敏 《生态学报》2010,30(7):1773-1779
土壤有机碳是土壤质量变化的重要指标,土壤活性有机碳组分在土壤质量变化方面发挥重要作用。采用有机碳分组技术,研究了干旱荒漠区自然土壤开垦对绿洲农田土壤有机碳活性组分及团聚体稳定性的影响。结果表明:低有机碳含量的自然土壤垦殖后,有利于干旱荒漠区绿洲棉田土壤有机碳的积累,且垦殖(0-5a)增加显著,年均增加在0.65gkg-1以上,上升幅度为76%-286%,5a后维持在相对平衡的水平;土壤活性有机碳、轻组有机碳在垦殖0-5a显著增加,平均增加72%和99%,5a后下降;颗粒有机碳则表现出垦殖0-10a明显增加,增加在275%以上,10a后下降;土壤水稳性团聚体含量随垦殖年限的延长显著增加,0-20a内较自然土壤提高了75%。垦殖可能是干旱区绿洲农田潜在碳汇的重要影响因素;但随垦殖年限延长,土壤有机碳活性组分下降,土壤质量又存在一定的退化风险。  相似文献   

8.
秸秆施用及蚯蚓活动对土壤活性有机碳的影响   总被引:12,自引:2,他引:12  
在连续6年稻麦轮作的小区试验中,研究了施用秸秆(表施或混施)和接种蚯蚓对农田土壤有机碳(SOC)和不同活性有机碳的影响.结果表明:施用秸秆6年后,土壤有机碳含量显著增加,且表施秸秆比混施秸秆更有利于土壤有机碳含量增加,在不同的秸秆施用条件下,接种蚯蚓未对土壤有机碳含量产生显著影响.表施秸秆和混施秸秆均能使土壤活性有机碳含量增加或显著增加,混施秸秆较表施秸秆更有利于热水提取态碳(HWEC)、可矿化碳(PMC)、酸提取态碳(AEC)、易氧化态碳(ROC)、颗粒有机碳(POC)和轻组有机碳(LFOC)含量增加,而可溶性有机碳(DOC)和微生物生物量碳(MBC)的变化与秸秆施用方式关系不大.在施用秸秆条件下,接种蚯蚓使不同活性有机碳的响应各异,不同处理中的土壤有机碳活性表现为秸秆混施+蚯蚓>秸秆混施>秸秆表施>秸秆表施+蚯蚓>对照.秸秆的施用方式是影响土壤有机碳与活性有机碳的主要因素,而蚯蚓活动则并非对所有的土壤活性有机碳有显著影响.  相似文献   

9.
农田土壤有机碳库是全球碳循环的重要组成部分.随着秸秆还田技术的广泛应用,作物秸秆成为土壤外源碳的主要来源.秸秆碳在土壤中的转化与分配直接影响土壤有机碳组成与含量,进而改变土壤养分循环.基于近年来的相关研究,本文探讨了还田秸秆碳转化与分配过程的影响因子,详细介绍了参与秸秆碳同化过程的土壤微生物组成,归纳与阐述了秸秆碳对土壤有机碳组成、含量及其周转的影响.同时,就非生物因子对秸秆碳的生物转化效应的影响、秸秆碳转化过程中的生物和非生物因子的互作、秸秆碳氮和土壤碳氮循环的耦合作用、秸秆碳向土壤活性有机碳库或稳定性有机碳库转化的有效调控技术等主要研究方向进行了展望,以期为准确揭示秸秆还田条件下各类土壤有机碳的变化特征,进而为实现秸秆还田的高效培肥与固碳效应提供理论依据和技术支撑.  相似文献   

10.
土地利用方式对黑土剖面有机碳分布及碳储量的影响   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
以典型黑土区29年长期定位试验处理下的土壤为对象,研究了农田、裸地、自然草地和落叶松林地4种土地利用方式下土壤剖面(0~200 cm)有机碳及碳储量的分布特征.结果表明:不同土地利用方式下表层(0~10 cm)土壤有机碳含量差异最大,表现为草地>农田>林地>裸地.农田10~120 cm各土层有机碳含量均低于草地、林地和裸地.与农田相比,自然草地对土壤有机碳提升作用明显,其0~60 cm各层土壤有机碳含量均显著高于农田;裸地表层(0~10 cm)土壤有机碳含量显著低于农田;落叶松林地0~20 cm有机碳含量与农田相比无明显变化,但其20~140 cm土层有机碳含量均高于农田.土壤剖面有机碳含量与p H值、容重、粉粒和粘粒含量呈显著负相关,与全氮和砂粒含量呈显著正相关.农田0~200 cm剖面有机碳储量显著低于其他3种利用方式,分别比草地、裸地和林地低13.6%、11.4%和10.9%.农田黑土在增加碳储量及改善环境方面具有很大潜力.  相似文献   

11.
宋小艳  王长庭  胡雷  刘丹  陈科宇  唐国 《生态学报》2022,42(4):1538-1548
选取若尔盖沼泽化草甸及其不同退化程度为研究对象,利用湿筛法进行团聚体分级,并测定各组分有机碳含量,研究了高寒草甸退化对土壤有机碳(SOC,Soil Organic Carbon)、团聚体以及团聚体结合有机碳(OC,Organic Carbon)的影响,旨在从土壤团聚体及其内部组成的角度去解析SOC的变化特征及机制。结果显示:1)退化使大团聚体比例降低且内部组成改变,团聚体稳定性降低。2)退化使各粒级团聚体及大团聚体内部组分结合OC含量均显著降低。3)大团聚体及其内部粗颗粒有机质中OC储量减少是退化中土壤有机碳流失的主要形式,微团聚体、闭蓄态微团聚体和闭蓄态黏粉粒中OC储量随退化增加。4)退化显著降低了高寒草甸SOC含量和储量,表层(0—10 cm)SOC含量变化主要决定于微团聚体和大团聚体OC含量,亚表层(10—20 cm)SOC含量主要受大团聚体OC含量和团聚体平均重量直径(MWD)影响;对于SOC储量,团聚体MWD是表层SOC储量的最重要影响因素,而亚表层SOC储量取决于团聚体组成、土壤理化性质和大团聚体OC含量的综合作用。研究结果表明,改善土壤团聚体组成和稳定性,增加大团聚体有机...  相似文献   

12.
Organic carbon (OC) sequestration in degraded semi‐arid environments by improved soil management is assumed to contribute substantially to climate change mitigation. However, information about the soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in steppe soils and their current saturation status remains unknown. In this study, we estimated the OC storage capacity of semi‐arid grassland soils on the basis of remote, natural steppe fragments in northern China. Based on the maximum OC saturation of silt and clay particles <20 μm, OC sequestration potentials of degraded steppe soils (grazing land, arable land, eroded areas) were estimated. The analysis of natural grassland soils revealed a strong linear regression between the proportion of the fine fraction and its OC content, confirming the importance of silt and clay particles for OC stabilization in steppe soils. This relationship was similar to derived regressions in temperate and tropical soils but on a lower level, probably due to a lower C input and different clay mineralogy. In relation to the estimated OC storage capacity, degraded steppe soils showed a high OC saturation of 78–85% despite massive SOC losses due to unsustainable land use. As a result, the potential of degraded grassland soils to sequester additional OC was generally low. This can be related to a relatively high contribution of labile SOC, which is preferentially lost in the course of soil degradation. Moreover, wind erosion leads to substantial loss of silt and clay particles and consequently results in a direct loss of the ability to stabilize additional OC. Our findings indicate that the SOC loss in semi‐arid environments induced by intensive land use is largely irreversible. Observed SOC increases after improved land management mainly result in an accumulation of labile SOC prone to land use/climate changes and therefore cannot be regarded as contribution to long‐term OC sequestration.  相似文献   

13.
气候和林分类型对土壤团聚体有机碳的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
该研究选择我国分布于亚热带、暖温带和寒温带的三个样点8种林分(包括阔叶林、混交林和针叶林)下表层0~20 cm的土壤为研究对象,利用干筛法进行大团聚体和微团聚体分级,测定了各团聚体组分的有机碳量和有机碳百分比,并分析他们与气候、植被和土壤环境变量之间的关系。结果表明:土壤大团聚体和微团聚体有机碳量都受到气候的显著影响,表现为土壤大团聚体和微团聚体有机碳量随年均温的增高而降低,经分析这与低温抑制土壤微生物分解活动有关。土壤团聚体有机碳百分比受到林分类型的影响显著,表现为阔叶林土壤团聚体有机碳百分比高于针叶林,这与林分凋落物的质量有关。此外,土壤pH值和土壤质地也影响土壤团聚体有机碳百分比。这表明气温上升和人为干扰导致的林分类型改变都可能引起土壤团聚体有机碳的下降,加剧气候变化。该研究结果有助于了解土壤团聚体有机碳的变异规律,为预测全球变化下土壤有机碳响应提供数据支持。  相似文献   

14.
农业土壤具有可观的固碳及减碳潜力,有助于减缓人类温室气体排放导致的气候变化。为了更好地了解华北平原土壤有机碳储量动态及其驱动因子,结合荟萃分析、随机森林机器学习模型和卫星遥感数据,研究了1981-2019年间中国华北平原农田土壤有机碳储量的时空变化及其驱动因子。结果表明,1981-2019年间华北平原0-20 cm农田土壤有机碳储量约为(523.10±79.36) Tg C ((14.56±1.66) Mg C/hm2),并以5.94 Tg C/a (0.12 Mg C hm-2 a-1)的年固持速率稳步增长,占比约为中国农田每年新增土壤有机碳的23.3%。其中,常规农田管理措施,包括无机肥施用、有机肥施用和秸秆还田,对土壤有机碳增长的贡献平均为25.1%,即1.49 Tg C/a (0.03 Mg C hm-2 a-1)。相比对照组,氮磷钾无机肥施用可提高22.7%-26.0%的土壤有机碳固定速率,有机肥可提高48.3%,秸秆还田可提高23.4%。同时,上述常规农田管理措施对土壤有机碳的积累作用受到土壤本身理化性质的调控,在温度和降水较高的气候条件下更显著。值得注意的是,无论是无机肥施用、有机肥施用还是秸秆还田,当投入量超过农作物和土壤微生物对碳和养分的需求时,土壤有机碳累积速率会显著下降。这也导致2000年后土壤有机碳固持速率明显减缓,由9.4 Tg C/a下降为3.5 Tg C/a。总的来说,过去几十年农田管理措施的改进显著提高了华北平原农田土壤有机碳的增加速率,而未来华北平原农田系统固碳潜力仍然可观,但亟待明确在保证粮食产量的同时不同气候和土壤环境条件下最佳固碳所需的化肥、有机肥和秸秆投入量。  相似文献   

15.
Information on changes in storage and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) when tropical forests are converted to cropland is needed for evaluating soil structural degradation and for selecting appropriate sustainable soil management practices. We evaluated changes in SOC storage of organic carbon and acid-hydrolyzable carbohydrates content of aggregated classes and particle size fractions of adjacent forested and cultivated soils in eight agroecosystems from Ethiopian highlands and Nigerian lowlands. In all agroecosystems, SOC content was two to four times higher in the forested than the cultivated soils. Higher SOC content was found in Ethiopian (20.2–47.3 g.kg–1) than Nigerian (12.0–24.0 g.kg–1) forested soils. The magnitude of reduction in SOC and total carbohydrates with cultivation was soil-specific, being generally higher in the sandy than the clayey soils. The smaller aggregate classes (< 1.00 mm) and the sand-sized particles (2000–63 µm) of the forested soils were preferentially enriched in carbohydrates relative to larger aggregates (4.75–1.00 mm). Carbohydrates were more concentrated in the clay-size fraction of the forested than in that of the cultivated soils. Cultivation reduced aggregate stability, increased the proportions of the smaller size aggregates and their associated carbohydrates relative to the forested soils. The susceptibility of the cultivated soils to loss in structural stability reflected this initial aggregation which was greater in the more stable clayey than the fragile sandy soils. The aggregate stability of either the forested or the cultivated soil could not be accounted for by the levels of OC or total carbohydrates in the soil.  相似文献   

16.
新银合欢篱对紫色土坡地土壤有机碳固持的作用   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
土壤有机碳的固持对保持土壤肥力以及缓解全球温室效应具有重要意义。本研究通过田间定位试验,探讨了新银合欢(Leucaena Leucocephala)篱对10和15的紫色土农耕地(玉米地)和经济林地(油桃地)表层(0-20cm)土壤有机碳积累的影响。结果表明:种植3年的新银合欢篱的10和15农耕地、10经济林地土壤有机碳密度分别比相应的无植物篱的对照地提高41.53%、43.29%、32.15%。经济林处理土壤有机碳含量、有机碳密度、呼吸强度显著大于农耕地处理;10比15农耕地更有利于土壤有机碳、呼吸速率及微生物量碳提高;农耕地比经济林地更利于微生物生物量维持。各处理下坡比上坡更利于土壤有机碳蓄积,且土壤呼吸强度提高,但土壤微生物商基本相同。不同处理下,土壤有机碳与土壤理化性质相关性各不相同:定植新银合欢篱的10和15农耕地、10经济林地土壤有机碳与有机质含量、土壤微生物碳有极显著的相关性,与全钾呈正相关,与pH负相关;定植新银合欢篱的10和15农耕地呼吸强度与有机碳相关关系均达到了极显著性,10经济林地呼吸强度与有机碳显著相关;土壤微生物指标变化与有机碳的变化趋势一致,能反映土壤质量变化。阐明定植新银合欢篱利于土壤有机碳固持,且能增强土壤微生物活性,提高土壤质量。  相似文献   

17.
Evaluations of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are often based on assigning a carbon density to each one of a number of ecosystems or soil classes considered, using data from soil profiles within these categories. A better approach, in which the use of classification methods by which extrapolation of SOC data to larger areas is avoided, can only be used if enough data are available at a sufficiently small scale. Over 190 000 SOC measurements (0–24 cm) have been made in the Flemish cropland (the Northern part of Belgium) in the 1989–2000 period. These SOC data were grouped into 3‐year periods and as means plus standard deviation per (part of) community (polygons). This large dataset was used to calculate SOC stocks and their evolution with time, without data extrapolation. Using a detailed soil map, larger spatial groups of polygons were created based on soil texture and spatial location. Linear regression analysis showed that in the entire study area, SOC stocks had decreased or at best had remained stable. In total, a yearly decrease of 354 kton OC yr?1 was calculated, which corresponds with a net CO2 emission of 1238 kton CO2 yr?1. Specific regions with a high carbon sequestration potential were identified, based on SOC losses during the 1989–2000 period and the mean 1999 SOC content, compared to the average SOC content of soils in Flanders with a similar soil texture. When restoring the SOC stocks to their 1990 level, we estimated the carbon sequestration potential of the Flemish cropland soils to be some 300 kton CO2 yr?1 at best, which corresponds to a 40‐year restoration period. In conclusion, we can say that in regions where agricultural production is very intense, carbon sequestration in the cropland may make only a very modest contribution to a country's effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  相似文献   

18.
The long-term use of cropland and cropland reclamation from natural ecosystems led to soil degradation. This study investigated the effect of the long-term use of cropland and cropland reclamation from natural ecosystems on soil organic carbon (SOC) content and density over the past 35 years. Altogether, 2140 topsoil samples (0–20 cm) were collected across Northeast China. Landsat images were acquired from 1985 to 2020 through Google Earth Engine, and the reflectance of each soil sample was extracted from the Landsat image that its time was consistent with sampling. The hybrid model that included two individual SOC prediction models for two clustering regions was built for accurate estimation after k-means clustering. The probability hybrid model, a combination between the hybrid model and classification probabilities of pixels, was introduced to enhance the accuracy of SOC mapping. Cropland reclamation results were extracted from the land cover time-series dataset at a 5-year interval. Our study indicated that: (1) Long-term use of cropland led to a 3.07 g kg−1 and 6.71 Mg C ha−1 decrease in SOC content and density, respectively, and the decrease of SOC stock was 0.32 Pg over the past 35 years; (2) nearly 64% of cropland had a negative change in terms of SOC content from 1985 to 2020; (3) cropland reclamation track changed from high to low SOC content, and almost no cropland was reclaimed on the “Black soils” after 2005; (4) cropland reclamation from wetlands resulted in the highest decrease, and reclamation period of years 31–35 decreased when SOC density and SOC stock were 16.05 Mg C ha−1 and 0.005 Pg, respectively, while reclamation period of years 26–30 from forest witnessed SOC density and stock decreases of 8.33 Mg C ha−1 and 0.01 Pg, respectively. Our research results provide a reference for SOC change in the black soil region of Northeast China and can attract more attention to the area of the protection of “Black soils” and natural ecosystems.  相似文献   

19.
We present the most comprehensive pan‐European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process‐based SOC model and state‐of‐the‐art databases of soil, climate change, land‐use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10′ grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model. Land‐use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990–2080 are presented for mineral soil only. Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land‐use change are estimated to have very significant effects. When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1–7 t C ha?1 for cropland and 3–6 t C ha?1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4–6 Pg (39–54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1–3 Pg (20–44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land‐use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst‐case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42–63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33–100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.  相似文献   

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