Consistency of estimators of population scaled parameters using composite likelihood

Composite likelihood methods have become very popular for the analysis of large-scale genomic data sets because of the computational intractability of the basic coalescent process and its generalizations: It is virtually impossible to calculate the likelihood of an observed data set spanning a large chromosomal region without using approximate or heuristic methods. Composite likelihood methods are approximate methods and, in the present article, assume the likelihood is written as a product of likelihoods, one for each of a number of smaller regions that together make up the whole region from which data is collected. A very general framework for neutral coalescent models is presented and discussed. The framework comprises many of the most popular coalescent models that are currently used for analysis of genetic data. Assume data is collected from a series of consecutive regions of equal size. Then it is shown that the observed data forms a stationary, ergodic process. General conditions are given under which the maximum composite estimator of the parameters describing the model (e.g. mutation rates, demographic parameters and the recombination rate) is a consistent estimator as the number of regions tends to infinity.     

Studying and managing the risk of cross-fertilization between transgenic crops and wild relatives

Drawing on field studies of pollen dispersal, we identify features of the hybridization process that need quantification. Our emphasis is on standardized measures, as opposed to the idiosyncratic and often anecdotal methods with which gene flow or out-crossing data are currently reported. In addition to proposing specific maximum likelihood approaches, we summarize some results to date from small-scale field trials that bear on the risks anticipated for large-scale commercialization. We conclude that absolute containment of recombinant pollen or genes is unlikely if physical isolation is the only containment strategy. Because we conclude that the escape of transgenic pollen is inevitable, we argue that the focus of risk analysis should be shifted towards the 'invasiveness' of transgenic plants and 'mitigation' of their impact on natural, as well as agricultural systems.     

Vicariance divergence and gene flow among islet populations of an endemic lizard

Allopatry and allopatric speciation can arise through two different mechanisms: vicariance or colonization through dispersal. Distinguishing between these different allopatric mechanisms is difficult and one of the major challenges in biogeographical research. Here, we address whether allopatric isolation in an endemic island lizard is the result of vicariance or dispersal. We estimated the amount and direction of gene flow during the divergence of isolated islet populations and subspecies of the endemic Skyros wall lizard Podarcis gaigeae, a phenotypically variable species that inhabits a major island and small islets in the Greek archipelago. We applied isolation-with-migration models to estimate population divergence times, population sizes and gene flow between islet-mainland population pairs. Divergence times were significantly correlated with independently estimated geological divergence times. This correlation strongly supports a vicariance scenario where islet populations have sequentially become isolated from the major island. We did not find evidence for significant gene flow within P. g. gaigeae. However, gene-flow estimates from the islet to the mainland populations were positively affected by islet area and negatively by distance between the islet and mainland. We also found evidence for gene flow from one subspecies (P. g. weigandi) into another (P. g. gaigeae), but not in the other direction. Ongoing gene flow between the subspecies suggests that even in this geographically allopatric scenario with the sea posing a strong barrier to dispersal, divergence with some gene flow is still feasible.