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1.
土地利用模型CLUE-S在辽宁省中部城市群规划中的应用   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
土地利用模型在分析、模拟和预测景观格局和过程中发挥着重要的作用。本文应用CLUE-S模型以辽宁省中部城市群为例,探讨了该模型在规划中的应用。在分析研究区1988—2004年景观格局和景观变化的驱动力基础上,对CLUE-S模型进行了参数设置。根据研究区的实际情况设置了3个规划预案:历史趋势预案、生态保护预案和城市规划预案,分别从2004年一直模拟到2024年;并将城市规划方案的结果与辽宁中部城市群的规划进行了对比,结果表明,CLUE-S模型模拟结果更符合实际情况,是区域规划有力的技术手段和科学支撑,能够对规划结果进行预测和评价。  相似文献   

2.
基于CLUE-S模型的昆明市域土地利用预案模拟   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
模型方法在分析、模拟和预测土地利用变化中发挥着重要的作用。本文基于遥感方法得到1986、1996和2006年昆明市域土地利用图,在GIS技术的支持下对CLUE-S模型在地形复杂的昆明区域的适用性进行了评价。在考虑不同政策和发展趋势的影响下,设定了3个预案对昆明市域2007—2020年的土地利用进行了模拟。结果表明:CLUE-S模型在20年的时间尺度内能够较好模拟昆明市的土地利用变化。"历史发展趋势预案"下,作为研究区景观基质的林地面积将不断减少,建设用地和草地面积将不断增加,景观破碎化程度不断加剧;"规划预案"下,建设用地上升最快,耕地和林地面积下降,景观格局破碎化的趋势比历史发展趋势下有所放缓;"生态优先预案"下,林地面积不断上升,耕地和草地面积下降,景观格局将向着优化的方向发展。CLUE-S模型模拟结果能够对区域规划和相关土地利用政策制定提供有力的技术手段和科学支撑。  相似文献   

3.
上海城市空间扩展过程模拟预测的多模型对比   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
崔福全  徐新良  孙希华 《生态学杂志》2012,31(10):2703-2708
模型模拟预测是开展城市扩展时空过程研究的有效方法之一。本文以上海市为研究地区,选用CLUE-S、LTM和SLEUTH模型并借助GIS技术手段对上海市城市空间扩展进行了模拟预测及结果的对比分析。结果表明:CLUE-S、LTM、SLEUTH3种模型模拟机理有所不同,CLUE-S模型和LTM模型均是首先进行城市扩展需求预测,进而通过对影响因子的综合分析,计算城市空间扩展的可能性(概率),从而实现城市扩展的空间分配;而SLEUTH模型则无需进行城市扩展需求预测,模型直接根据城市扩展的历史轨迹进行模拟预测;CLUE-S、LTM、SLEUTH3种模型模拟的2005年上海城市空间扩展结果与遥感监测结果的一致性程度均较高,其中SLEUTH模型模拟结果精度最高,Kappa系数为0.85,较CLUE-S模型与LTM模型具有一定的优势。2005—2020年上海城市空间扩展的面积为207.7~320.87km2,2020年上海市城市面积将达到1121.96~1235.13km2,未来15年上海城市扩展速率将达到13.85~21.39km2.a-1。CLUE-S、LTM、SLEUTH3种模型各有其优势与不足之处,整合3种模型的优点,研发出具有开放性的综合模型将是未来城市扩展模拟预测的发展趋势。  相似文献   

4.
岷江上游土地利用与生态系统服务价值的动态变化   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
左玲丽  彭文甫  陶帅  祝聪  徐新良 《生态学报》2021,41(16):6384-6397
岷江上游是中国西南典型生态脆弱区之一,研究岷江上游土地利用与生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Services Values,ESV)的动态变化,对区域生态保护,实现可持续发展具有重要意义。基于岷江上游2000、2005、2010和2015年四期遥感解译数据,利用CA-Markov模型预测了2035年土地利用格局,并引入空间异质系数、社会经济调整系数和资源稀缺系数对生态系统服务价值进行修正,构建适用于研究区的ESV评估模型,分析了岷江上游2000-2035年土地利用及ESV的时空动态变化。结果表明:1)岷江上游土地利用类型以林地和草地为主。建设用地和耕地面积持续增加,草地、水域和未利用地呈现波动变化;2)2015-2035年和2000-2015年相比,ESV增幅下降,土地提供生态系统服务的能力有所降低。维持生物多样性、保持土壤、气体调节、水文调节和气候调节是岷江上游生态系统的主要功能;3)岷江上游中东部及河谷地带是ESV低值及损失冷点集中区,西部地区是ESV高值及增加热点集中区;4) ESV对系数缺乏弹性,林地和草地面积的变化是引起生态系统服务价值变化的主要敏感因子。研究结果对研究区土地利用格局优化以及推行生态文明建设具有重要参考意义。  相似文献   

5.
生态保护政策对岷江上游地区土地利用/覆被的影响   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
采用CLUE-S模型模拟方法,对基于历史发展趋势以及"天然林保护工程"和"退耕还林还草工程"政策下2000—2020年间岷江上游地区土地利用/覆被变化进行了预案分析.结果表明:2000—2020年间,按历史发展趋势,作为研究区景观基质的林地面积将不断减少,而灌木林地和草地面积将不断增加,景观破碎化程度将不断加剧;"天然林保护工程"和"退耕还林还草工程"能够有效增加研究区林地面积,并使草地面积不断下降,同时能够扭转景观破碎化趋势,使景观格局向着更加优化的方向发展.  相似文献   

6.
基于多模型结合的土地利用结构多情景优化模拟   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
陈影  张利  何玲  门明新 《生态学报》2016,36(17):5391-5400
土地生态服务功能的重要性越来越受到人们的重视,以河北省卢龙县为案例区,以土地生态服务功能和经济功能提升为目标,基于100 m×100 m尺度的遥感解译图像,分别利用CLUE-S及基于MOP和CLUE-S整合模型对研究区土地利用结构进行数量及空间优化模拟。结果表明:到2020年,单模型模拟的土地经济功能有所提升,但生态服务功能却减退;基于MOP和CLUE-S优化整合模型模拟的生态服务功能和经济功能分别比2013年提升8.40%及8.20%。耕地、建设用地、林地面积都有所增加,其它用地减少较多。研究表明,MOP和CLUE-S整合模型与单模型相比,到2020年土地两项功能值之和有所增加,特别是生态功能增加幅度较大,MOP和CLUE-S模型结合的优化方案优于CLUE-S单模型优化方案。  相似文献   

7.
土地利用/覆被变化对水文过程与水资源利用具有重要影响,是流域生态系统产水功能的驱动力之一.以山东省南四湖流域为研究对象,分析1990—2013年土地利用变化,运用CLUE-S模型预测未来土地利用变化趋势,并基于土地利用变化格局,采用InVEST模型的产水模块和空间制图探讨了近25年、未来城市化增长情景以及流域生态保护管理情景下土地利用变化对产水功能的影响.结果表明: 近25年来,随着南四湖流域城市化进程的加快,城市建设用地增加3.5%,耕地面积减少2.4%,城市用地的增加主要来源于耕地转换;InVEST模型模拟显示,城市建设用地的增加会促进产水,由此引起产水功能在过去25年中先降低后升高,2013年最高达到232.1 mm;CLUE-S模型模拟预测现状增长情景下土地利用变化,按照城市化快速发展的速度,城市建设用地将增加6.7%,由此导致2030年产水量显著增长,流域洪水风险亦会相应升高;湖区周围300 m缓冲区实施退耕还林情景模拟表明,这一生态措施会明显降低流域产水量,较2013年减少1.2%.  相似文献   

8.
CLUE-S模型在南京市土地利用变化研究中的应用   总被引:8,自引:3,他引:5  
盛晟  刘茂松  徐驰  郁文  陈虹 《生态学杂志》2008,27(2):235-239
土地利用/覆盖变化模型是研究区域景观动态并解释其驱动机制的重要技术手段.应用CLUE-S模型,在Landsat TM影像等相关数据支持下,对南京地区1998-2006年土地利用的时空动态变化进行了研究.结果表明:各土地利用类型变化受地形因素影响最大,人均GDP与城镇用地和农业用地的分布呈显著相关,城乡主干道对土地利用变化的贡献显著大于省级及以上道路;海拔较高区域林地的发生比率较高,而地形低平区域农田、城建用地的发生比率较高.经检验,在300 m空间分辨率水平,对南京地区2003年、2006年土地利用状况模拟的精度分别达到了85.7%和84.1%;而通过将研究区分成若干子区,分别修正模型参数并重新模拟,准确率提高到89.7%和88.3%,分区赋值法有效地提高了模拟精度.研究表明,CLUE-S模型对城市发展的空间结构也有较强的预测能力,对指导城市规划、分析景观动态的驱动机制有重要参考价值.  相似文献   

9.
生态安全格局评价是维护生物多样性、改善环境质量的重要途径,对维持区域持续发展具有重要意义。以岷江流域为研究区,综合运用土地利用和归一化植被指数(NDVI)等数据,基于生态系统服务对岷江流域进行生态重要性分析,将生态极重要区识别为生态源地,采用最小累积阻力(MCR)模型中成本路径法提取潜在廊道,结合重力模型提取重要廊道和重要节点,从而实现对研究区生态安全格局的刻画,进而对岷江流域生态安全格局评价并提出优化建议。研究结果表明:(1)岷江流域安全等级总体较好,较高生态安全和高生态安全的面积占研究区面积的55.02%。(2)从空间上看,研究区内重要生态源地面积为818.32km2,破碎化严重,集中分布在岷江流域上游林地区;廊道共190条,总长度为19633.96km,其中重要廊道41条,呈半环状分布于上游和下游段;生态节点共117个,集中分布在上游段南部-西南部。(3)参考生态阻力和廊道节点空间分布特征,划分岷江流域"四区两带"生态安全格局并提出分区管控措施和相关建议。以期研究结果和调控路径可对完善岷江流域生态安全格局、保护生物多样性和增强水土保持有一定的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

10.
王玥  周旺明  王绍先  牛丽君  代力民 《生态学报》2014,34(19):5635-5641
受自然保护区旅游业快速发展影响,长白山自然保护区外围土地利用变化加剧。因此,对区域土地利用布局进行科学规划具有十分重要的意义。以长白山自然保护区外围30 km区域为研究对象,探讨了CLUE-S模型在小尺度土地利用规划中的应用。在分析研究区1991—2007年土地利用变化的驱动力基础上,根据区域规划预案,模拟2020土地利用布局。利用模拟结果划定空间管制区和乡镇布局,并与现有规划进行了对比。结果表明,基于CLUE-S模型的土地规划明显抑制了区域景观破碎化进程,减弱了人为活动对景观的影响,该方法可以为长白山区域土地利用规划提供有力的技术手段和科学支撑。  相似文献   

11.
Uses of models of land use change are primary tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and supporting land use planning and policy. However, no single model is able to capture all of key processes essential to explore land use change at different scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and impacts. Based on the multi-scale characteristics of land use change, combination and integration of currently existed models of land use change could be a feasible solution. Taken Sangong watershed as a case study, this paper describes an integrated methodology in which the conversion of land use and its effect model (CLUE), a spatially explicit land use change model, has been combined with a system dynamic model (SD) to analyze land use dynamics at different scales. A SD model is used to calculate area changes in demand for land types as a whole while a CLUE model is used to transfer these demands to land use patterns. Without the spatial consideration, the SD model ensures an appropriate treatment of macro-economic, demographic and technology developments, and changes in economic policies influencing the demand and supply for land use in a specific region. With CLUE model the land use change has been simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use suitability, spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply. The application of the combination of SD and CLUE model in Sangong watershed suggests that this methodology have the ability to reflect the complex behaviors of land use system at different scales to some extent and be a useful tool for analysis of complex land use driving factors such as land use policies and assessment of its impacts on land use change. The established SD model was fitted or calibrated with the 1987–1998 data and validated with the 1998–2004 data; combining SD model with CLUE-S model, future land use scenarios were analyzed during 2004–2030. This work could be used for better understanding of the possible impacts of land use change on terrestrial ecosystem and provide scientific support for land use planning and managements of the watershed.  相似文献   

12.
土地利用变化模拟研究进展   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
乔治  蒋玉颖  贺曈  卢应爽  徐新良  杨俊 《生态学报》2022,42(13):5165-5176
土地利用变化研究经历了近30年的快速发展,学者基于不同建模目标构建出多种土地利用变化模型,实现了从数量模拟到时空格局模拟,从单一模型向多种模型耦合的跨越。当前研究主要在元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)模型和CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent)模型的基础上进行改进,马尔科夫模型、系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)模型、Logistic回归和随机森林等均可计算CA模型和CLUE-S模型中所需的土地利用需求,多标准评价、地理加权回归、多主体模型以及人工神经网络等方法也多被用于CA模型的扩展,而CLUE-S的改进则存在模型本身系列的升级。这些模型广泛应用于各种区域和尺度土地利用变化预测实例研究并研发软件系统和数据集。驱动力分析主要从自然因素与人文因素两方面进行,人文因素是引发土地利用变化的主要因素。在目前的研究中,由于技术手段的限制,仍然存在时空尺度、数据误差、数据整合的不确定性等问题。未来土地利用变化模拟研究应进一步发挥大数据技术优势,推动土地利用变化模拟研究朝向精细化、多元化方向发展。结合生态环境领域实际问题,深挖土地利用变化与其生态环境效应之间的互馈机制,将研究视角从探究人类活动对土地利用变化的影响逐渐转向二者相互作用,最终促进人地关系协调发展。  相似文献   

13.
Species–area relationships (SARs) provide an avenue to model patterns of species richness and have recently been shown to vary substantially across regions of different climate, vegetation, and land cover. Given that a large proportion of the globe has been converted to agriculture, and considering the large variety in agricultural management practices, a key question is whether global SARs vary across gradients of agricultural intensity. We developed SARs for mammals that account for geographic variation in biomes, land cover and a range of land‐use intensity indicators representing inputs (e.g. fertilizer, irrigation), outputs (e.g. yields) and system‐level measures of intensity (e.g. human appropriation of net primary productivity – HANPP). We systematically compared the resulting SARs in terms of their predictive ability. Our global SAR with a universal slope was significantly improved by the inclusion of any one of the three variable types: biomes, land cover, and land‐use intensity. The latter, in the form of human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP), performed as well as biomes and land‐cover in predicting species richness. Other land‐use intensity indicators had a lower predictive ability. Our main finding that land‐use intensity performs as well as biomes and land cover in predicting species richness emphasizes that human factors are on a par with environmental factors in predicting global patterns of biodiversity. While our broad‐scale study cannot establish causality, human activity is known to drive species richness at a local scale, and our findings suggest that this may hold true at a global scale. The ability of land‐use intensity to explain variation in SARs at a global scale had not previously been assessed. Our study suggests that the inclusion of land‐use intensity in SAR models allows us to better predict and understand species richness patterns.  相似文献   

14.
To study the potential effects of climate change on species, one of the most popular approaches are species distribution models (SDMs). However, they usually fail to consider important species‐specific biological traits, such as species’ physiological capacities or dispersal ability. Furthermore, there is consensus that climate change does not influence species distributions in isolation, but together with other anthropogenic impacts such as land‐use change, even though studies investigating the relative impacts of different threats on species and their geographic ranges are still rare. Here we propose a novel integrative approach which produces refined future range projections by combining SDMs based on distribution, climate, and physiological tolerance data with empirical data on dispersal ability as well as current and future land‐use. Range projections based on different combinations of these factors show strong variation in projected range size for our study species Emberiza hortulana. Using climate and physiological data alone, strong range gains are projected. However, when we account for land‐use change and dispersal ability, future range‐gain may even turn into a future range loss. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for biological traits and processes in species distribution models and of considering the additive effects of climate and land‐use change to achieve more reliable range projections. Furthermore, with our approach we present a new tool to assess species’ vulnerability to climate change which can be easily applied to multiple species.  相似文献   

15.
In order to analyse the impact of land use change, it is particularly important to know how organisms use resources distributed across a heterogeneous landscape. The main objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of land use change on bird and mammal fauna, by using a coupled model approach. The CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model has been applied to obtain the spatial pattern of land use change for a scenario with soybean expansion in the Cerrado of Maranhão State in Brazil. These land use change maps were used as the input for the LEDESS (Landscape Ecological Decision and Evaluation Support System) model to evaluate the impact of habitat fragmentation on mammal and bird species. The scenarios demonstrated that high quality habitat for all studied species will be lost in the future when current trends in agricultural expansion continue, but these changes will have species-specific impacts. The most relevant ecological impact under the explored scenarios was habitat fragmentation expressed by the increase the number of habitat clusters. The coupled model approach of LEDESS and CLUE made it possible to project the spatial impact of soybean expansion on habitat dynamics in the studied region. This model approach can help to design effective ecological infrastructure to facilitate species survival and to implement an effective habitat network in the Balsas region.  相似文献   

16.
Mycobacterium ulcerans infection (Buruli ulcer [BU] disease) is an emerging tropical disease that causes severe morbidity in many communities, especially those in close proximity to aquatic environments. Research and control efforts are severely hampered by the paucity of data regarding the ecology of this disease; for example, the vectors and modes of transmission remain unknown. It is hypothesized that BU presence is associated with altered landscapes that perturb aquatic ecosystems; however, this has yet to be quantified over large spatial scales. We quantified relationships between land use/land cover (LULC) characteristics surrounding individual villages and BU presence in Benin, West Africa. We also examined the effects of other village-level characteristics which we hypothesized to affect BU presence, such as village distance to the nearest river. We found that as the percent urban land use in a 50-km buffer surrounding a village increased, the probability of BU presence decreased. Conversely, as the percent agricultural land use in a 20-km buffer surrounding a village increased, the probability of BU presence increased. Landscape-based models had predictive ability when predicting BU presence using validation data sets from Benin and Ghana, West Africa. Our analyses suggest that relatively small amounts of urbanization are associated with a decrease in the probability of BU presence, and we hypothesize that this is due to the increased availability of pumped water in urban environments. Our models provide an initial approach to predicting the probability of BU presence over large spatial scales in Benin and Ghana, using readily available land use data.  相似文献   

17.
河道生态系统特征及其自净化能力研究现状与发展   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
杨丽蓉  陈利顶  孙然好 《生态学报》2009,29(9):5066-5075
河道生态系统包括河道水体和河岸带两大部分,具有净化水体、降低污染物浓度的功能.研究河道生态系统的自净化能力对河道生态系统的健康评价及水环境管理具有重要的意义.目前该领域的研究主要侧重于两个方面:一方面是运用水质模型的方法模拟评价河道水体的自净化能力,另一方面则是研究河岸植被缓冲带对净化水体的作用.系统总结了目前研究的特点与不足,指出了今后应该重视的研究领域,主要包括:(1)应加强研究陆地生态系统空间异质性对河道自净化能力的影响研究;(2)需要系统解剖河道剖面形态结构与空间布局对河道水质自净化能力的影响;(3)重视面向外部复杂环境的参数获取方法的研究;(4)综合河岸生态系统与河道水体生态系统,系统研究非点源污染在陆-水迁移和水体运移中河道生态系统自净化能力的时空变化特征,从而为开展河道生态系统健康评价,河道生态系统管理提供科学的依据.  相似文献   

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集成灰色分析和元胞自动机用于景观动态模拟   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
李晖  白杨  李国彦  杨树华 《生态学报》2009,29(11):6227-6238
针对景观生态系统"复杂性"的特点,采用灰色局势确定邻域转换规则,构建元胞自动机,用于模拟和分析景观生态动态变化.在信息不完全的情况下,提高了元胞自动机景观生态动态模型的可靠性和可行性.以中国云南省怒江流域中段作为实例,确定影响元胞转换规则的三因素主要有元胞邻域的聚集程度,土地适宜程度和人类活动影响程度,根据景观这一类复杂系统的动态变化特征其权重随地理空间位置和时间而变化,同时用Monte Carlo法考虑了模拟时转换的随机性.通过计算显示模拟未来发展的情景总的趋势是符合实际的,不但模拟了微观的景观单元的自组织机制,而且在一定程度上反映了宏观的社会经济因素影响,因而更具有针对性、典型性及准确性.  相似文献   

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Understanding and predicting a species’ distribution across a landscape is of central importance in ecology, biogeography and conservation biology. However, it presents daunting challenges when populations are highly dynamic (i.e. increasing or decreasing their ranges), particularly for small populations where information about ecology and life history traits is lacking. Currently, many modelling approaches fail to distinguish whether a site is unoccupied because the available habitat is unsuitable or because a species expanding its range has not arrived at the site yet. As a result, habitat that is indeed suitable may appear unsuitable. To overcome some of these limitations, we use a statistical modelling approach based on spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox processes. These model the spatial distribution of the species across available habitat and how this distribution changes over time, relative to covariates. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for spatio‐temporal dynamics that are unaccounted for by covariates through a spatio‐temporal stochastic process. We illustrate the approach by predicting the distribution of a recently established population of Eurasian cranes Grus grus in England, UK, and estimate the effect of a reintroduction in the range expansion of the population. Our models show that wetland extent and perimeter‐to‐area ratio have a positive and negative effect, respectively, in crane colonisation probability. Moreover, we find that cranes are more likely to colonise areas near already occupied wetlands and that the colonisation process is progressing at a low rate. Finally, the reintroduction of cranes in SW England can be considered a human‐assisted long‐distance dispersal event that has increased the dispersal potential of the species along a longitudinal axis in S England. Spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox process models offer an excellent opportunity for the study of species where information on life history traits is lacking, since these are represented through the spatio‐temporal dynamics reflected in the model.  相似文献   

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