Brothers and sisters

Data from the Kipsigis of Kenya are used to test two models for how parents invest in offspring, the Trivers-Willard and local resource competition/enhancement hypotheses. Investment is measured as age-specific survival, educational success, marital arrangements, and some components of property inheritance, permitting an evaluation of how biases persist or alter over the period of dependence. Changes through time in such biases are also examined. Despite stronger effects of wealth on the reproductive success of men than women, the survival of sons and daughters is not related to parental wealth. However, a Trivers-Willard effect characterizes educational investment: poor families show a greater concern for daughters’ (vis-à-vis sons’) schooling than do rich families, a trend that has increased over time. In regard to models of local resource competition and enhancement, men’s reproductive success decreases with number of brothers and increases with number of sisters; this pattern of competition with same-sex sibs and cooperation with opposite-sex sibs is not found among women. As predicted from these observations, parents show reduced investment in sons with a large number of brothers, and increased investment in sons with a large number of sisters. By contrast, investment in daughters is entirely unaffected by number of sisters and is influenced only in subtle ways by number of brothers. Levels of investment in relation to sibship size (irrespective of siblings’ sex) are highest for younger children of large sib sets. Discussion of the results in relation to those from other studies leads to three conclusions. First, predictive models for how investment biases vary across societies must consider a broad range of socioecological factors constraining parental options and payoffs. Second, the timing of investment biases within societies will be affected by the value of children and the costs of parental investment. Third, measures of investment appropriate for between-sex and between-class comparisons need careful attention. Each of these issues is brought to bear on the question of why, in contrast to so many other parts of the world, sex preferences are so muted in Africa.     

Matriliny as daughter-biased investment

From an evolutionary perspective, matriliny presents a puzzle because men in matrilineal societies transmit wealth to their sisters' sons, to whom they are only half as related as to their own sons. It has been argued that such systems would only maximise fitness under unrealistically high levels of paternity uncertainty. In this paper, we propose that matriliny can arise from daughter-biased investment by parents and/or grandparents. We show that daughter-biased investment is adaptive if the marginal benefit of wealth to sons (compared to daughters) does not outweigh the risk of nonpaternity in sons' offspring. We argue that such conditions will be rare where resource-holding polygyny is prevalent but could otherwise be widespread under even moderate levels of paternity uncertainty. The daughter-biased investment model explains two well-known characteristics of matrilineal descent: (a) matriliny's association with high levels of paternity uncertainty and (b) matriliny's ecological correlates, including its association with horticulture, its rarity in pastoralist and agro-pastoralist societies, and the tendency for matriliny to be replaced by son-biased inheritance during economic development. We present data on wealth, sex, and reproductive success (RS) in two African societies, the matrilineal Chewa in Malawi and patrilineal Gabbra in Kenya, which support the daughter-biased investment theory.     

Spread of cattle led to the loss of matrilineal descent in Africa: a coevolutionary analysis

Matrilineal descent is rare in human societies that keep large livestock. However, this negative correlation does not provide reliable evidence that livestock and descent rules are functionally related, because human cultures are not statistically independent owing to their historical relationships (Galton''s problem). We tested the hypothesis that when matrilineal cultures acquire cattle they become patrilineal using a sample of 68 Bantu- and Bantoid-speaking populations from sub-Saharan Africa. We used a phylogenetic comparative method to control for Galton''s problem, and a maximum-parsimony Bantu language tree as a model of population history. We tested for coevolution between cattle and descent. We also tested the direction of cultural evolution--were cattle acquired before matriliny was lost? The results support the hypothesis that acquiring cattle led formerly matrilineal Bantu-speaking cultures to change to patrilineal or mixed descent. We discuss possible reasons for matriliny''s association with horticulture and its rarity in pastoralist societies. We outline the daughter-biased parental investment hypothesis for matriliny, which is supported by data on sex, wealth and reproductive success from two African societies, the matrilineal Chewa in Malawi and the patrilineal Gabbra in Kenya.     

Ecological demography: A synthetic focus in evolutionary anthropology

The interests of evolutionary anthropologists, behavioral ecologists, and demographers converge on the ecology of human fertility. Ecological conditions influence the optimum pattern of maternal effort. Patterns of abortion, neglect, and infanticide vary with mothers' ability to invest in their children and children's ability to use that investment. As in most other mammals, the ecology of human fertility varies between the sexes: status and resource control are important for males, whereas reproductive value is crucial for females. In pre-industrial societies, and even in monogamous societies in demographic transition, wealthy men had more children than did poorer men. This correlation, often assumed to have disappeared, persists today, with richer men still having more sexual access than others. Sex differences in the ecology of fertility mean that sex of the offspring, as well as birth order, influences parental investment. Because individual fertility varies with environment, it is not surprising that “natural” (uncontrolled) fertility varies across societies or that demographic transitions proceed locally, with occasional reverses, as individuals strive to maximize their lifetime reproductive success in changing, competitive, conditions.     

Optimizing Modern Family Size

Modern industrialized populations lack the strong positive correlations between wealth and reproductive success that characterize most traditional societies. While modernization has brought about substantial increases in personal wealth, fertility in many developed countries has plummeted to the lowest levels in recorded human history. These phenomena contradict evolutionary and economic models of the family that assume increasing wealth reduces resource competition between offspring, favoring high fertility norms. Here, we review the hypothesis that cultural modernization may in fact establish unusually intense reproductive trade-offs in wealthy relative to impoverished strata, favoring low fertility. We test this premise with British longitudinal data (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children), exploring maternal self-perceptions of economic hardship in relation to increasing family size and actual socioeconomic status. Low-income and low-education-level mothers perceived the greatest economic costs associated with raising two versus one offspring. However, for all further increases to family size, reproduction appears most expensive for relatively wealthy and well-educated mothers. We discuss our results and review current literature on the long-term consequences of resource dilution in modern families.     

Does observed fertility maximize fitness among New Mexican men?

Our objective is to test an optimality model of human fertility that specifies the behavioral requirements for fitness maximization in order (a) to determine whether current behavior does maximize fitness and, if not, (b) to use the specific nature of the behavioral deviations from fitness maximization towards the development of models of evolved proximate mechanisms that may have maximized fitness in the past but lead to deviations under present conditions. To test the model we use data from a representative sample of 7,107 men living in Albuquerque, New Mexico, between 1990 and 1993. The model we test proposes that low fertility in modern settings maximizes number of grandchildren as a result of a trade-off between parental fertility and next generation fertility. Results do not show the optimization, although the data do reveal a trade-off between parental fertility and offspring education and income. We propose that two characteristics of modern economies have led to a period of sustained fertility reduction and to a corresponding lack of association between income and fertility. The first is the direct link between costs of investment and wage rates due to the forces of supply and demand for labor in competitive economies. The second is the increasing emphasis on cumulative knowledge, skills, and technologies in the production of resources. Together they produce historically novel conditions. These two features of modern economies may interact with evolved psychological and physiological mechanisms governing fertility and parental investment to produce behavior that maximizes the economic productivity of lineages at the expense of fitness. If cognitive processes evolved to track diminishing returns to parental investment and if physiological processes evolved to regulate fertility in response to nutritional state and patterns of breast feeding, we might expect non-adaptive responses when returns from parental investment do not diminish until extremely high levels are reached. With high economic payoffs from parental investment, people have begun to exercise cognitive regulation of fertility through contraception and family planning practices. Those cognitive processes maynot have evolved to handle fitness trade-offs between fertility and parental investment. A preliminary presentation of this data was published in R. I. M. Dunbar, ed.,Human Reproduction Decisions: Biological and Social Perspectives. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1995. Support for the research project, “Male Fertility and Parenting in New Mexico,” began with two seed grants from the University of New Mexico’s Biomedical Research Grants Program, 1988 and 1989, and one from the University of New Mexico Research Allocations Committee, 1988. Further seed money as well as interim funding came from the William T. Grant Foundation (#89130589 and #91130501). The major support for the project came from the National Science Foundation from 1990 to 1993 (#BNS-9011723 and #DBS-911552). Both National Science Foundation grants included Research Experience for Undergraduates supplements. Hillard S. Kaplan is an Associate Professor of Anthropology at the University of New Mexico. His earlier research and publications focused on food sharing, time allocation, parental investment, and reproductive strategies among Ache hunter-gatherers in Paraguay, Machiguenga and Piro forager-horticulturalists in Peru, and villagers of several ethnicities in Botswana. New research and theory concern fertility, parental investment, and mating strategies in developed and developing nations. This research formulates a new theory of reproductive decision-making and the demographic transition, integrating human capital and parental investment theory in a synthesis of economic and evolutionary approaches. Jane B. Lancaster is a Professor of Anthropology at the University of New Mexico. Her research and publications are on human reproductive biology and behavior, especially human parental investment; women’s reproductive biology of pregnancy, lactation, and child-spacing; and male fertility and investment in children. Current research with Hillard S. Kaplan is on male life history strategies among a large sample of men in New Mexico. She has coedited three books on human parental investment:School-Age Pregnancy and Parenthood (with B. Hamburg),Parenting across the Life Span (with J. Altmann, A. Rossi, and L. Sherrod), andOffspring Abuse and Neglect (with R. Gelles). She is scientific editor of a quarterly journal,Human Nature: An Interdisciplinary, Biosocial Perspective published by Aldine de Gruyter. She is also a council member of the newly formed Human Behavior and Evolution Society. John A. Bock is Andrew W. Mellon Post-Doctoral Fellow in Epidemiology and Population Health at the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University. His research focuses on the allocation of parental investment and the determinants of children’s activities, integrating aspects of economic and evolutionary theory. He has ongoing field research with Bantu and Bushmen agro-pastoralists and forager-horticulturalists in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. He is also collaborating with Lancaster and Kaplan on the determinants of progeny distribution and homosexuality among New Mexican men. Sara E. Johnson is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of New Mexico. Her major research trajectory focuses on trade-offs in life history characters. Her research experience includes participation in a study of variation in growth and development among children in a multi-ethnic community in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, in addition to her dissertation work on individual variation in growth and mortality among juvenile baboons. She is collaborating with Lancaster and Kaplan on the association between survival and fertility among Albuquerque men.     

Wealth,fertility and adaptive behaviour in industrial populations

The lack of association between wealth and fertility in contemporary industrialized populations has often been used to question the value of an evolutionary perspective on human behaviour. Here, we first present the history of this debate, and the evolutionary explanations for why wealth and fertility (the number of children) are decoupled in modern industrial settings. We suggest that the nature of the relationship between wealth and fertility remains an open question because of the multi-faceted nature of wealth, and because existing cross-sectional studies are ambiguous with respect to how material wealth and fertility are linked. A literature review of longitudinal studies on wealth and fertility shows that the majority of these report positive effects of wealth, although levels of fertility seem to fall below those that would maximize fitness. We emphasize that reproductive decision-making reflects a complex interplay between individual and societal factors that resists simple evolutionary interpretation, and highlight the role of economic insecurity in fertility decisions. We conclude by discussing whether the wealth–fertility relationship can inform us about the adaptiveness of modern fertility behaviour, and argue against simplistic claims regarding maladaptive behaviour in humans.     

When to have another baby: A dynamic model of reproductive decision-making and evidence from Gabbra pastoralists

Maximizing reproductive success involves having as many children as possible that can themselves reproduce successfully. Thus, when Gabbra parents decide to have another baby, they must trade off the probability that they will be able to afford to raise the child and marry it off successfully when it reaches maturity against the risk that feeding and raising that child would diminish the family herd, harming the marriage prospects of other children and possibly even leading to household destitution. Here I use a dynamic, state-dependent optimality model to analyze this trade-off. The decision to have another baby depends on household wealth and the number of children they already have. Parents should not necessarily reproduce at the maximum rate to maximize reproductive success, and the costs of marrying off a child have a large impact on the optimal family size. In the Gabbra, the cost of marrying off boys greatly exceeds the cost of marrying off girls. An analysis of demographic data from Gabbra households with a living husband and a first wife that had reached menopause show that probability of remarriage is strongly dependent on the number of children the first wife had. Number of sons has a much greater influence than number of daughters on the probability of a second marriage, as predicted by the model. Men are attempting to create the optimal family.     

Low fertility in contemporary humans and the mate value of their children: sex-specific effects on social status indicators

Evolutionary explanations of low fertility in modern affluent societies commonly state that low fertility is the outcome of high parental investments in the quality of their children. Although the empirical evidence that modern parents do face a quantity–quality trade-off is strong, two issues that are relevant from an evolutionary perspective have not received much attention. First, sex differences in the proximate aspects of quality have been largely ignored. Second, the relationship between the quantity of children and their reproductive success in contemporary low-fertility societies remains unclear. In this article, we study the quantity–quality trade-off as a trade-off between the number of children and the mate value and reproductive success of those children. We examine the trade-off in two steps. First, a lower number of children is expected to increase the mate value of these children. Second, greater mate value is expected to lead to greater reproductive success. Using sex-specific indicators of mate value, we test these hypotheses in a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55–85 in 1992 (n=3229). This sample contains information on three successive generations in which the middle generation has completed fertility. We find support for the first hypothesis, but only partial support for the second hypothesis. A higher number of children is traded off against the mate value of the children, but not against their reproductive success. We conclude that the conditions under which the quantity of children is traded off against their reproductive success depend on the social environment.     

Parental investment and the optimization of human family size

Human reproductive behaviour is marked by exceptional variation at the population and individual level. Human behavioural ecologists propose adaptive hypotheses to explain this variation as shifting phenotypic optima in relation to local socioecological niches. Here we review evidence that variation in fertility (offspring number), in both traditional and modern industrialized populations, represents optimization of the life-history trade-off between reproductive rate and parental investment. While a reliance on correlational methods suggests the true costs of sibling resource competition are often poorly estimated, a range of anthropological and demographic studies confirm that parents balance family size against offspring success. Evidence of optimization is less forthcoming. Declines in fertility associated with modernization are particularly difficult to reconcile with adaptive models, because fertility limitation fails to enhance offspring reproductive success. Yet, considering alternative measures, we show that modern low fertility confers many advantages on offspring, which are probably transmitted to future generations. Evidence from populations that have undergone or initiated demographic transition indicate that these rewards to fertility limitation fall selectively on relatively wealthy individuals. The adaptive significance of modern reproductive behaviour remains difficult to evaluate, but may be best understood in response to rising investment costs of rearing socially and economically competitive offspring.     

The effect of paternal investment on female fertility intention in South Korea

Life history theory views reproduction as an outcome of resource allocation. The allocation of resources such as parental investments of time, energy and material resources involves trade-offs between number of offspring and timing of reproduction. Within the framework of mammalian parental investment, the outstanding feature of human reproduction is the high level of paternal care. Although empirical evidence suggests that human paternal investment may have evolved as a reproductive strategy to reduce infant and child mortality rates, the effects of actual paternal investment, including allocating time to child care, on female reproductive decisions have received relatively little attention. We examined the trade-off from two perspectives using a representative sample of married South Korean women aged 20–44 in 2005 (n=977). First, paternal investment in domestic labor, including child care and housework, was expected to be associated with women's preference regarding future reproduction. Second, relative paternal investment was expected to increase women's preference for future reproduction, especially among employed women. We found that increased paternal investment in child care and housework remarkably enhanced women's intention to have a second child, especially among employed women. In addition, although family members provide a low percentage of child care in South Korea, such help is likely to be a useful resource for second childbirth among employed women. Somewhat expectedly, older age and longer time since first birth had negative effects on women's second-child intention. There is growing evidence that, in the lowest fertility societies, paternal investment may be an essential resource for promoting future reproductive behavior of women, especially employed women.     

Natural selection on male wealth in humans

Although genomic studies suggest that natural selection in humans is ongoing, the strength of selection acting on particular characteristics in human populations has rarely been measured. Positive selection on male wealth appears to be a recurrent feature of human agrarian and pastoralist societies, and there is some evidence of it in industrial populations, too. Here we investigate the strength of selection on male wealth, first in contemporary Britain using data from the National Child Development Study and then across seven other varied human societies. The British data show positive selection on male income driven by increased childlessness among low-income men but a negative association between personal income and reproductive success for women. Across cultures, selection gradients for male wealth are weakest in industrial countries and strongest in subsistence societies with extensive polygyny. Even the weakest selection gradients observed for male wealth in humans are as strong as or stronger than selection gradients reported from field studies of other species. Thus, selection on male wealth in contemporary humans appears to be ubiquitous and substantial in strength.     

The Reproductive Ecology of Industrial Societies,Part II

Studies of the association between wealth and fertility in industrial populations have a rich history in the evolutionary literature, and they have been used to argue both for and against a behavioral ecological approach to explaining human variability. We consider that there are strong arguments in favor of measuring fertility (and proxies thereof) in industrial populations, not least because of the wide availability of large-scale secondary databases. Such data sources bring challenges as well as advantages, however. The purpose of this article is to illustrate these by examining the association between wealth and reproductive success in the United States, using the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979. We conduct a broad-based exploratory analysis of the relationship between wealth and fertility, employing both cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches, and multiple measures of both wealth (income and net worth) and fertility (lifetime reproductive success and transitions to first, second and third births). We highlight the kinds of decisions that have to be made regarding sample selection, along with the selection and construction of explanatory variables and control measures. Based on our analyses, we find a positive effect of both income and net worth on fertility for men, which is more pronounced for white men and for transitions to first and second births. Income tends to have a negative effect on fertility for women, while net worth is more likely to positively predict fertility. Different reproductive strategies among different groups within the same population highlight the complexity of the reproductive ecology of industrial societies. These results differ in a number of respects from other analyses using the same database. We suggest this reflects the impossibility of producing a definitive analysis, rather than a failure to identify the “correct” analytical strategy. Finally, we discuss how these findings inform us about (mal)adaptive decision-making.     

Parental Investment and Elite Family Structure in Preindustrial States: A Case Study of Late Medieval-Early Modern Portuguese Genealogies

In this paper I examine the idea that patriarchal family structure among elites in stratified societies originates as a form of parental investment favoring male children. Patriliny and restricted inheritance among 15th- and 16th-century Portuguese nobility are analyzed as reproductive strategies aimed at maximizing lineage survival and posterity in the face of high mortality. Demographic data derived from genealogies show that among the high nobility, males outreproduce females, whereas among the lower nobility, females outreproduce males, and that the tendency to concentrate investment in male offspring correspondingly increases with status. This family structural arrangement has the societal effect of generating intense competition among males for available titles, which results in increased warfare mortality among men and indirectly in the increased claustration of women.     

Why pigs are important in Papua? Wealth,height and reproductive success among the Yali tribe of West Papua

Many studies have investigated how different variables influence the reproductive success (RS) in the populations of natural birth control. Here, we tested hypotheses about positive relationship between wealth, height and several measures of RS in an indigenous, traditional society from West Papua. The study was conducted among the Yali tribe in a few small, isolated mountain villages. In this tribe, a man's wealth is measured by the number of pigs he possesses. We found that wealth was related to fertility and number of living children, but not to child mortality in both men and women. Additionally, child mortality increased with the number of children in a family. Finally, we did not observe any relationship between height and reproductive success measures or wealth. We provide several possible explanations of our results and also put forward hypothetical background for further studies of indigenous populations.     

Status competition,inequality, and fertility: implications for the demographic transition

The role that social status plays in small-scale societies suggests that status may be important for understanding the evolution of human fertility decisions, and for understanding how such decisions play out in modern contexts. This paper explores whether modelling competition for status—in the sense of relative rank within a society—can help shed light on fertility decline and the demographic transition. We develop a model of how levels of inequality and status competition affect optimal investment by parents in the embodied capital (health, strength, and skills) and social status of offspring, focusing on feedbacks between individual decisions and socio-ecological conditions. We find that conditions similar to those in demographic transition societies yield increased investment in both embodied capital and social status, generating substantial decreases in fertility, particularly under conditions of high inequality and intense status competition. We suggest that a complete explanation for both fertility variation in small-scale societies and modern fertility decline will take into account the effects of status competition and inequality.     

Demographic studies enhance the understanding of evolutionarily (mal)adaptive behaviors and phenomena in humans: a review on fertility decline and an integrated model

Recently, statistical analyses of demographic datasets have come to play an important role for studies into the evolution of human life history. In the first part of this paper, I highlight fertility decline, an evolutionarily paradoxical phenomenon in terms of fitness maximization. Then, I conduct a literature review regarding the effects of socioeconomic status on the number of offspring, especially in modern developed, (post-)industrial, and low-fertility societies. Although a non-positive relationship between them has often been recognized as a general feature of fertility decline, there actually exists a great deal of variation. Based on the review, I discuss the association between socioeconomic success and reproductive success, and tackle an evolutionary question as to why people seek higher socioeconomic success that would not directly lead to higher reproductive success. It has been suggested that, in modern competitive environments, parents should set a higher value on their investment in children, and aim to have a smaller number of high-quality children. Also, parents would maintain higher socioeconomic status for themselves so as to provide high-levels of investment in their children. In the second part, I broadly consider seemingly evolutionarily (mal)adaptive outcomes besides fertility decline, including child abuse, menopause, and suicide. The integration of the major three approaches to human behavioral and psychological research (behavioral ecology, evolutionary psychology, and cultural evolution) could lead to a deeper understanding. I provide a model for the integrated approach. Rich empirical evidence accumulated in demographic studies, especially longitudinal and cross-cultural resources, can assist to develop a theoretical framework.     

The effect of maternal and paternal immune challenge on offspring immunity and reproduction in a cricket

Trans‐generational immune priming is the transmission of enhanced immunity to offspring following a parental immune challenge. Although within‐generation increased investment into immunity demonstrates clear costs on reproductive investment in a number of taxa, the potential for immune priming to impact on offspring reproductive investment has not been thoroughly investigated. We explored the reproductive costs of immune priming in a field cricket, Teleogryllus oceanicus. To assess the relative importance of maternal and paternal immune status, mothers and fathers were immune‐challenged with live bacteria or a control solution and assigned to one of four treatments in which one parent, neither or both parents were immune‐challenged. Families of offspring were reared to adulthood under a food‐restricted diet, and approximately 10 offspring in each family were assayed for two measures of immunocompetence. We additionally quantified offspring reproductive investment using sperm viability for males and ovary mass for females. We demonstrate that parental immune challenge has significant consequences for the immunocompetence and, in turn, reproductive investment of their male offspring. A complex interaction between maternal and paternal immune status increased the antibacterial immune response of male offspring. This increased immune response was associated with a reduction in son's sperm viability, implicating a trans‐generational resource trade‐off between investment into immunocompetence and reproduction. Our data also show that these costs are sexually dimorphic, as daughters did not demonstrate a similar increase in immunity, despite showing a reduction in ovary mass.     

Male fertility attitudes: a neglected dimension in Nigerian fertility research

A sample of 202 male Nigerians enrolled in colleges and graduate schools in the state of Kansas were surveyed to determine their perceptions of population problems in Nigeria; attitudes toward family planning, divorce, and male children; and attitudes toward family size. A major limitation of Nigerian-based fertility research has been the neglect of the role of men in couples' reproductive behavior. The majority of Nigerian students surveyed in this study did not think overpopulation is an impending crisis in Nigeria: 40% thought there are just enough people and 13% indicated there are not enough people. 53% supported the concept of a government population policy, but 67% felt the government should not interfere with family size decisions. Although 84% endorsed the idea that family planning services and information should be available, 69% felt women should not practice family planning without the consent of their husbands. 43% believed a man should divorce his wife if the woman is infertile, unable to produce a male child, or unable to bear the number of children demanded by her husband; in addition, 35% indicated a man should marry a second wife or continue to have children if the couple has 5 daughters and no son. In terms of the value of children, 62% stated that children are wealth or better than wealth, whereas 38% claimed that children use up wealth. Duration of stay in the US was inversely correlated with the number of children considered too many, and the number of male children already born was an important determinant of future family size expectations. In general, it appears that level of education and exposure to US standards do not have a major impact on fertility values among Nigerians, particularly the desire for male children. Educated Nigerian men are an important target for population education, however, because they dominate and control many of the structural, behavioral, and cultural dimensions of fertility behavior.     

Low fertility increases descendant socioeconomic position but reduces long-term fitness in a modern post-industrial society

Adaptive accounts of modern low human fertility argue that small family size maximizes the inheritance of socioeconomic resources across generations and may consequently increase long-term fitness. This study explores the long-term impacts of fertility and socioeconomic position (SEP) on multiple dimensions of descendant success in a unique Swedish cohort of 14 000 individuals born during 1915–1929. We show that low fertility and high SEP predict increased descendant socioeconomic success across four generations. Furthermore, these effects are multiplicative, with the greatest benefits of low fertility observed when SEP is high. Low fertility and high SEP do not, however, predict increased descendant reproductive success. Our results are therefore consistent with the idea that modern fertility limitation represents a strategic response to the local costs of rearing socioeconomically competitive offspring, but contradict adaptive models suggesting that it maximizes long-term fitness. This indicates a conflict in modern societies between behaviours promoting socioeconomic versus biological success. This study also makes a methodological contribution, demonstrating that the number of offspring strongly predicts long-term fitness and thereby validating use of fertility data to estimate current selective pressures in modern populations. Finally, our findings highlight that differences in fertility and SEP can have important long-term effects on the persistence of social inequalities across generations.