天山东部不同海拔西伯利亚落叶松对气候变暖的响应分析

利用树木年轮气候学方法,探讨了在气候变暖情景下,天山东部上中下限西伯利亚落叶松（Larix sibirica）树木径向生长与气候因子之间的响应关系,并利用冗余分析对其关系进行了验证。结果表明：不同海拔的差值年表（RES）要比标准年表（STD）的特征参数大,具有更高的信噪比和平均敏感度,含有较多的环境信息且更能代表树木总体变化;海拔2160m处的年表（L1）在快速升温（1985年）后,树木年轮宽度与降水和温度的相关性明显减弱;海拔2430m处的年表（L2）在两个时段内与降水和温度的关系均较弱;海拔2700m处的年表（L3）在1985~2013年时段内对降水和气温的正响应均增强。树木径向生长对单月气候因子的响应在前一年11、12月份显著性更高,当年6、7月份气温与树轮宽度指数具有更高的相关性。气候变暖使树木径向生长不断减小的特征在低海拔地区表现更为明显。上中下限西伯利亚落叶松对气温升高的敏感性降低。高海拔地区西伯利亚落叶松的径向生长主要受温度的影响,而中低海拔地区主要受降水与温度的共同影响。     

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season‐average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first‐year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth‐year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow‐free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low‐elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high‐elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low‐provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High‐ and low‐elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high‐provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.     

Increasing relevance of spring temperatures for Norway spruce trees in Davos,Switzerland, after the 1950s

Key message

Relevance of spring temperatures for tree-ring growth steadily increased since 1950s. Closely linked tree-ring growth and net CO ₂ exchange driven by spring temperatures.

Abstract

We investigated long-term (over 100 years) tree-ring width (TRW) variabilities as well as short-term (10 years) variations in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in response to climate to assess the driving factors for stem growth of Norway spruce in a subalpine forest at Davos in Switzerland. A tree-ring width index (TRWi) chronology for the period from 1750 to 2006 was constructed and linked with climate data from 1876 to 2006, and with NEP available for the period from 1997 to 2006. Based on TRWi, we found that only two out of the 257 years exhibited extreme negative TRWi, compared to 29 years with extreme positive anomalies, observed mainly in recent decades. Annual temperature, annual precipitation, as well as autumn and winter temperature signals were well preserved in the TRWi chronology over the last 130 years. Spring temperatures became increasingly relevant for TRWi, explaining less than 1 % of the variation in TRWi for the period from 1876 to 2006, but 8 % for the period from 1950 to 2006 (p = 0.032), and even 47 % for 1997–2006 (p = 0.028). We also observed a strong positive relationship between annual TRWi and annual NEP (r = 0.661; p = 0.037), both strongly related to spring temperatures (r = 0.687 and r = 0.678 for TRWi and NEP, respectively; p = 0.028; p = 0.032). Moreover, we found strong links between monthly NEP of March and annual TRWi (r = 0.912; p = 0.0001), both related to March temperatures (r = 0.767, p = 0.010 and r = 0.724, p = 0.018, respectively). Thus, under future climate warming, we expect stem growth of these subalpine trees and also ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration to increase, as long as water does not become a limiting factor.     

川西亚高山不同年龄紫果云杉径向生长对气候因子的响应

运用树木年轮气候学的基本方法,建立王朗自然保护区紫果云杉在集中分布上限区域的年轮宽度年表,选取差值年表分析不同年龄云杉的径向生长同逐月气候因子的相关及响应关系,结果显示:幼龄组云杉年表的敏感度高于中龄组和老龄组云杉,幼龄组云杉对生长季前及生长季的气温状况显著正相关;中龄组云杉年表仅与当年4月份和7月份的月平均最低气温显著正相关;老龄组云杉的年轮宽度指数同上年生长季(上年8月份)的月平均气温和月平均最低温显著负相关,上年生长季高温的"滞后效应"在老龄组云杉体现的更为突出;幼龄组与中龄组云杉对当年6月份降水持续增加显示出明显的负相关关系,上年12月份的降水会对幼龄组和老龄组云杉径向生长不利。研究表明幼龄组云杉包含的气候信息要优于中龄组和老龄组云杉,在该区域进行相关研究时应根据研究需要选取不同年龄跨度的云杉年表。     

Climate signal shift under the influence of prevailing climate warming – Evidence from Quercus liaotungensis on Dongling Mountain,Beijing, China

Increasing climate warming is inducing drought stress and resulting in forest growth decline in many places around the world. The recent climate of northern China has shown trends of both warming and drying. In this study, we obtained tree ring width chronology of Quercus liaotungensis Koidz. from Dongling Mountain, Beijing, China. We divided the temperature series of the study area into cooling (1940–1969) and warming intervals (1970–2016). The climate–tree growth response analysis showed that temperature exerted a limiting impact on the annual radial growth of Q. liaotungensis during the cooling period, whereas the influence of temperature was lower during the warming period. The moving correlation analysis showed that the influence of summer temperature decreased with the warming climate since the 1970s, and that the influence of winter and spring temperatures decreased since the 2000s. The correlation values between the chronology and precipitation decreased during the cooling period, whereas spring and early summer precipitation correlations began to increase in the 1970s and reached significance (p < 0.05) in the 1990s. Our results show that the positive influence of temperature on radial growth of Q. liaotungensis in the study area has weakened, whereas precipitation has become the dominant regulator with climate warming. These findings suggest that forest growth on Dongling Mountain will decline if climate warming continues in the future.     

Temperature reconstruction in the Ob River valley based on ring widths of three coniferous tree species

Tree core samples of larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) and pine (Pinus sibirica Du-Tour.) from the northern taiga of West Siberia were collected to assess their potential for summer temperature reconstructions in the Ob River region. Bootstrapped response functions showed that annual growth was mainly influenced by May to June temperatures in pine and by June to July temperatures in spruce and larch. Spruce and pine chronologies showed high positive correlations with previous October temperature. June–July temperatures were reconstructed based on spruce (1795–1996) and larch (1615–1999) tree ring chronologies. The pine chronology could not be used for a reliable temperature reconstruction, due to low values of explained May–June temperature variance (11–15%) but the species has a high potential to help clarify the May–June and October climatic influence on ring width observed in all three species. We explained the effect of the early vegetation period (May–July) and the differences in the temperature signals between spruce and larch tree ring chronologies with the influence of previous September and October temperature on tree growth with the warming effect of the Ob River and differences of the species’ photosynthetic possibilities and the activity of chloroplasts and bud meristem tissues.     

Species,Climate and Landscape Physiography Drive Variable Growth Trends in Subalpine Forests

Forests around the world are undergoing rapid changes due to changing climate and increasing physiological stress, but forest response to climate at the ecosystem scale can be highly variable due to the mixed responses of different trees across heterogeneous landscapes. To determine the response of ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains to climate stress, we investigated the response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), two widely distributed subalpine forest species of Rocky Mountains, to climate warming across a region characterized by gradients of elevation, aspect and soil type. We investigated the growth trend of individual trees through time, determined the climate variables most important for driving growth and quantified the interactions between climate and topography that influence long-term growth trends and potential ecological changes across the study region. Growth trends of these two species are similar through the first part of the century, but diverge during the last several decades. Since 1975, subalpine fir growth decreased through time, while Engelmann spruce growth increased. We find that aspect and warm summer temperatures are the most important factors determining growth in subalpine fir, and subalpine fir growth declines are greatest on east- and south-facing aspects. In contrast, Engelmann spruce growth is uniformly unresponsive to climate. In addition to highlighting the importance of species-level differences in growth response to climate, our results also identify interactions between climate and local physiography as controls on long-term growth trends and suggest that the local landscape physiography can mediate climate-related stress in forested ecosystems. This work advances our understanding of how forest stress is mitigated by landscape factors at the ecosystem scale, and how interactions of species, landscape and climate will control future ecosystem composition and forest growth dynamics.     

不同去趋势方法的新疆东天山高低海拔雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表对气候的响应

利用新疆东天山高低海拔雪岭云杉(Picea schrenkiana Fisch.et Mey.)年轮样本,采用样条函数法、负指数函数法和区域曲线法3种去趋势方法研制树轮宽度标准化年表,通过分析不同去趋势方法的新疆东天山高低海拔云杉树轮宽度标准化年表特征、年表与气候响应的关系和年表间在不同频域互相关,及其与其它资料对比发现:(1)3种去趋势法对东天山年表质量影响较小,低海拔树轮年表含有更多可靠的气候变化信息。(2)高海拔的雪岭云杉树木径向生长与6—9月平均气温均呈显著正相关,其中标准化树轮年表与7月平均气温相关系数达0.553(P0.01,n=58),夏季温度可能是东天山高海拔雪岭云杉径向生长的主要限制因子;低海拔雪岭云杉树木径向生长与春季降水显著正相关,同时与春季平均气温显著负相关,春季高温和缺水共同作用的春旱可能是影响低海拔雪岭云杉径向生长的主导因子,且负指数函数年表对气候响应更敏感。(3)区域曲线法能够保留树轮标准化年表中更多低频信息,但优势不明显。高低海拔标准化年表在低频域相关系数较大,并和历史干旱事件有很好的对应。在东天山高低海拔雪岭云杉的去趋势方法研究中,负指数函数法比样条函数法和区域曲线法更适合。     

Precipitation reconstruction for the southern Altay Mountains (China) from tree rings of Siberian spruce,reveals recent wetting trend

We developed six tree-ring width chronologies of Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) from the low elevation forest of the southern Altay Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China. Although the six chronologies come from different sampling sites, significant correlations existed among the chronologies (r ≥ 0.477), and the first principal component (PC1) accounted for 72.2% of total variance over their common period 1825–2010. Correlation response analysis revealed that radial growth of Siberian spruce is mainly limited by a 12-month precipitation starting from July of the previous year to June of the current year. We therefore developed a July–June precipitation reconstruction spanning 1825–2009, which explained 65.5% of the instrumental variance for the period 1962–2009. The information of our precipitation reconstruction suggested that dry conditions existed for the periods 1829–1838, 1852–1855, 1876–1888, 1898–1911, 1919–1923, 1932–1936, 1943–1955, 1963–1968, 1973–1984 and 2007–2009, and wet conditions for the periods AD 1825–1828, 1839–1851, 1856–1875, 1889–1897, 1912–1918, 1924–1931, 1937–1942, 1956–1962, 1969–1972 and 1985–2006. Spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data revealed that our precipitation reconstruction contains a strong precipitation signal for the Altay Mountain ranges. Our reconstruction agreed with the moisture-sensitive tree ring width series of Siberian larch from the Altay Mountains of Mongolia on a decadal timescale. In addition, in contrast to a drying trend in north central China, a clear wetting trend has occurred in the southern Altay Mountains since 1980s.     

Growth response of Sabina tibetica to climate factors along an elevation gradient in south Tibet

We examine the climate significance in tree-ring chronologies retrieved from Sabina tibetica Kom. (Tibetan juniper) at two sites ranging in elevation from 4124 to 4693 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Namling region, south Tibet. The study region is under the control of semi-arid plateau temperate climate. The samples were grouped into high- and low-elevation classes and standard ring-width chronologies for both classes were developed. Statistical analysis revealed a decreasing growth rate yet increasing chronology reliability with increasing elevation. Overall, correlation analyses showed that radial growth in S. tibetica at the study sites was controlled by similar climatic factors, regardless of elevation; these factors comprised early winter (November) and early summer (May–June) temperatures as well as annual precipitation (July–June). Slight differences in the correlation between tree growth along the elevation gradient and climate variables were examined. The correlations with early winter temperature varied from significantly positive at the low-elevation site to weakly positive at the high-elevation site, whereas the correlations between radial growth and early summer temperature increased from weakly negative at the low-elevation sites to strongly negative at the high-elevation sites. The abundant precipitation through the year may have masked variations in tree growth on different elevation aspects. Our results will aid future dendroclimatological studies of Namling tree rings in south Tibet and demonstrate the potential of S. tibetica Kom. for improving our understanding of environmental impacts on tree growth.     

Different trends and divergent responses to climate factors in the radial growth of Abies georgei along elevations in the central Hengduan Mountains

Climate change has been unprecedented in the last half-century. Tree growth dynamics and responses to climate warming at different elevations vary by study area due to regional diversity in site-specific climatic conditions in the central Hengduan Mountains. A. georgei is the dominant species in high-elevation montane forests in the central Hengduan Mountains. To study the response of A. georgei radial growth to climate and identify tree growth trends at different elevations, tree-ring width chronologies at four elevations across the subalpine A. georgei forest belt were built and growth-climate relationships were analyzed. The primary findings of this study were as follows: (1) radial growth rates of A. georgei decreased with elevation; (2) warming alleviated the limitation of low temperatures and abundant precipitation on tree radial growth at the highest sampling site; and (3) unlike at other elevations, the trend of trees basal area increment (BAI) at the lowest sampling site showed a significant decline over the past 20 years. This suggests the presence of an elevational inflection point, likely between 3800 m and 4000 m, where tree growth trends diverge. These results confirmed that A. georgei at higher elevation in the central Hengduan Mountains currently benefits from higher temperatures. However, the effects of drought on A. georgei at lower elevations would cause radial growth to decrease with climate warming. Therefore, it is critical to establish effective management strategies based on how A. georgei responds to climate change at various elevations.     

A 2917-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the Buerhanbuda Mts., Southeastern Qaidam Basin,China

In this study, we developed the tree-ring width chronology for the period of 1404 BCE to 2015 CE using Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) trees collected from the Buerhanbuda Mts. in the southeastern Qaidam Basin (QB) near Nuomuhong Village, Qinghai Province. This is the first and longest chronology to date in this region. Based on the relationships between the tree-ring width chronology and climate data, the annual precipitation from previous July to current June (July-June) was reconstructed for the past 2917 years from 902 BCE to 2015 CE. This reconstruction accounted for 47.9% of the total variance in the actual July-June precipitation in the calibration period (1957–2015). The full reconstruction captured distinct wet and dry variability, and contained evidence of some low-frequency climate signals. We identified 13 wet and 12 dry periods, of which 1443–1503 CE and 1789–1836 CE were the two longest dry periods. General agreements in the low-frequency variations between the July-June precipitation and other moisture-sensitive records for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) suggested that the reconstruction in this study represented a regional signal. Spatial correlations with gridded precipitation data also indicated that the reconstructed July-June precipitation could adequately represent climate fluctuations over a large area of the northeastern TP. The new tree-ring width chronology and precipitation reconstruction are important for understanding natural climate change in the southeastern QB.     

Altitudinal trends in climate change result in radial growth variation of Pinus yunnanensis at an arid-hot valley of southwest China

Climate change has already had observable impact on the biophysical environment, and lead to the different sensitivity of vegetation to climate factors on spatio-temporal scale. Therefore, understanding how the radial growth respond to climate at different spatio-temporal scales is crucial to recognize forest growth dynamic and make scientific management decisions under the background of climatic change. In the present study, the tree ring of Pinus yunnanensis at six altitudes gradients between 1300 m and 2500 m from a typical arid-hot valley in Jinsha River, were collected. We analyzed the relationship between radial growth and climate at different altitudes, and the sensitivity of growth to climatic factors over time. The results showed that the mean width of tree rings decreased as the altitude increasing. The relationship between climatic factors and radial growth at low or high altitudes was different with that at mid altitudes. Radial growth was negatively correlated to the temperatures from February to July at both low altitudes (1300–1500 m) and at high altitudes (2200–2500 m), but positively correlated to the temperatures in October of the previous year to April at mid altitudes (1700–1900 m). Precipitation in October of the previous year, May, and June in growing year had a positive effect on radial growth at all altitudes. Temperature and precipitation in the previous year showed a time-lag effect on radial growth. A moving correlation analysis of the tree ring index and climate variables showed that the limiting factors for tree growth at different altitudes varied over time. The influence of drought on the tree growth increased gradually as the climate warming. In future research, evaluating the dynamic relationship between vegetation growth and climate warming at spatio--temporal scale will be particularly important to guide forest management.     

Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach

Aim To understand drivers of vegetation type distribution and sensitivity to climate change. Location Interior Alaska. Methods A logistic regression model was developed that predicts the potential equilibrium distribution of four major vegetation types: tundra, deciduous forest, black spruce forest and white spruce forest based on elevation, aspect, slope, drainage type, fire interval, average growing season temperature and total growing season precipitation. The model was run in three consecutive steps. The hierarchical logistic regression model was used to evaluate how scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation and fire interval may influence the distribution of the four major vegetation types found in this region. Results At the first step, tundra was distinguished from forest, which was mostly driven by elevation, precipitation and south to north aspect. At the second step, forest was separated into deciduous and spruce forest, a distinction that was primarily driven by fire interval and elevation. At the third step, the identification of black vs. white spruce was driven mainly by fire interval and elevation. The model was verified for Interior Alaska, the region used to develop the model, where it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 60–83%. When the model was independently validated for north‐west Canada, it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 53–85%. Black spruce remains the dominant vegetation type under all scenarios, potentially expanding most under warming coupled with increasing fire interval. White spruce is clearly limited by moisture once average growing season temperatures exceeded a critical limit (+2 °C). Deciduous forests expand their range the most when any two of the following scenarios are combined: decreasing fire interval, warming and increasing precipitation. Tundra can be replaced by forest under warming but expands under precipitation increase. Main conclusion The model analyses agree with current knowledge of the responses of vegetation types to climate change and provide further insight into drivers of vegetation change.     

呼伦贝尔沙地樟子松年轮生长对气候变化的响应

以内蒙古呼伦贝尔地区沙地樟子松为样本,建立了樟子松树木年轮宽度年表,应用相关分析和响应函数分析等年轮气候学方法,研究了樟子松径向生长对气候变化的响应。结果表明,樟子松年轮宽度与4月和6—9月平均温度呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05);与各月降水量多呈正相关关系,特别是与当年5—8月的月降水量呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05);树轮年表与前一年10月至当年10月的PDSI均呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05),其中与5月份PDSI的相关性最高。响应函数分析表明,年表与当年6—7月的平均气温、上一年10月和当年5—7月份的降雨存在显著的相关性,与5—7月份PDSI存在较显著的正相关性;综合来看,呼伦贝尔沙地樟子松生长同时受降水和温度的影响,其径向生长与气候因子间的关系属于降水敏感型,为区域降水重建提供了科学基础。     

Searching for thresholds in climate–radial growth relationships of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir,Jasper National Park,Alberta, Canada

The relationship between monthly climate predictors and radial growth of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmanni Parry) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt) were explored using both a standard dendroclimatological approach and a multiple adaptive regressions splines (MARS) framework. Consistent with previous research, the radial growth of fir and spruce was related to temperature variables over the time period of the instrumental record. We identify important temporal instability in the statistical relationships between climate variables and the radial growth of both subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce. Using a 30-year running window, only four of the climate variables related to the radial growth of either spruce or fir did not show a switch in the sign of the correlation. A multiple adaptive regressions spline method was then used to gain insight into thresholds that may relate to radial growth–climate instabilities. Using MARS, we were able to identify knots and non-monotonic relationships between radial growth and climate predictors that may be indicators of ecological thresholds. This combination of dendroclimatic methods provides valuable insight into the complex nonlinear responses that both subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce have been growing under in the past centuries.     

A Norway spruce tree-ring width chronology for the Common Era from the Central Scandinavian Mountains

Fennoscandia is one of the most prominent regions in the world for dendroclimatological research. Yet, millennium-long tree-ring chronologies in this region have mainly been developed from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). To explore the possibility of building long-term chronologies using other dominating tree species in the region, this paper presents the first two millennia-long Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) ring-width chronology from Northern Europe. The chronology is composed of living trees and subfossil wood and covers the period from BCE 115 to 2012 CE. A sufficiently replicated and robust chronology is built for the past 360 years back to 1649 CE. Further back in time, the common growth signal is reduced, and hence the reliability of the earlier section of the chronology is lower. The climate calibration results show that the spruce ring-width correlation with June-July mean temperatures over the period 1901–2012 is positive and significant (r = 0.6, p < 0.01) and representing the temperature variability of a spatial domain covering west-central Scandinavia. These results show the ability of Norway spruce to serve as a proxy for paleoclimatic research and the possibility of extending the chronology far back in time in the region, and therefore present an opportunity for carrying out new inter-and intraregional proxy analyses.     

昌岭山两个优势树种径向生长对气候变化的响应

在气候变暖背景下,树木径向生长对气候变化的响应存在不稳定性。利用采自祁连山东部余脉昌岭山两个优势树种油松和青海云杉的树轮样芯,建立树轮宽度标准年表,通过分析树轮宽度年表与气候要素的相关关系,探讨两个树种径向生长对气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）油松年表比青海云杉年表包含更多的气候信息,其平均敏感度、标准差、信噪比和样本对总体的代表性等统计量均高于青海云杉标准年表。（2）气候要素对不同树种径向生长限制程度不同,油松径向生长主要与降水（前一年9月和当年3-8月）和气温（前一年9月）有关,但对降水的响应更为敏感,而青海云杉径向生长则受到气温（当年9月）和降水（前一年9月、当年3月和7月）的共同作用。（3）气温突变后,油松和青海云杉年表与各气温要素的相关性显著增强,而青海云杉年表与气温要素的相关性变化更明显,指示了青海云杉径向生长对气温的响应更不稳定。（4）生长季平均最低气温的升高诱导的干旱胁迫是油松和青海云杉树木径向生长-气温响应变化的主要原因。     

Temporal instability in tree-growth/climate response in the Lower Bavarian Forest region: implications for dendroclimatic reconstruction

This paper explores the temporal stability of growth/climate relationships in ring-width chronologies of Norway spruce [ Picea abies (L.) Karst] and silver fir ( Abies alba Mill) in the Lower Bavarian Forest region in southern Germany. These chronologies were compiled, using both historic and living tree-ring data, with the main aim of developing a dendroclimatic reconstruction for the region covering the last 500 years. Moving window correlation analysis shows that prior to the twentieth century, both species co-vary in a similar way (1480–1899 mean r =0.66). There is no significant correlation between the species chronologies since ca. 1930, which partly reflects anomalous growth trends in the fir chronology since ca. 1960. Multiple regression analysis was utilised to assess the ability of both species chronologies to model March–August precipitation. The precipitation signal of the spruce data was found to be both stronger than the fir data (1872–1930 calibration: r ²=0.45 vs 0.25) and more time stable. After ca. 1930, the fir chronology loses it ability to model March–August precipitation until there is no climate signal at all in the fir data in recent decades. The spruce data also express a later weakening in their climate signal in the mid 1970s. We present compelling evidence indicating that the anomalous trends observed in the fir data, since the mid 1960s, appear to be predominantly related to local SO₂ emissions from power plants and refineries. It is also likely that this local anthropogenic forcing is the cause of the weakening of the climate signal in the spruce data since the mid 1970s. The conclusions from this study are: (1) The fir tree-ring data cannot be used for traditional dendroclimatic calibration, although prior to the twentieth century the decadal variability in the fir data is very similar to spruce and so these data could be used to extend potential reconstructions in the future; (2) The recent decline and recovery event in the fir data appears to be unique to the twentieth century and is not part of a natural episodic phenomenon; (3) Traditional dendroclimatic calibration of March–August precipitation will be made using solely the spruce ring-width data. However, due to SO₂ forcing in recent decades, the calibration period will be shortened to the 1871–1978 period.     

Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA

Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate was studied across its local geographical and elevation range in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. A dendroecological analysis of subalpine fir across a range of elevations (1350-1850 m) and annual precipitation (125-350 cm y^?1), was used to compare environmental factors affecting growth. Climate-growth relationships were explored using Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients; partial correlation analysis was used to assess relationships among site chronologies and climatic variables. Radial growth is negatively correlated with winter precipitation at high elevation and wet sites, but not at low and middle elevation dry sites. Growth is positively correlated with current growing season temperature at all sites; however, growth is negatively correlated with previous year August temperature, indicating that climate affects growth in subsequent years. Positive correlations between growth and summer precipitation during the growing season at low and middle elevation dry sites suggest that soil moisture is partially limiting to growth on these sites. If the climate of the Pacific Northwest becomes warmer and drier, then subalpine fir growth may increase at high elevation and wet sites, but may decrease at lower elevation dry sites in the Olympic Mountains. However, the growth response of subalpine fir to potentially rapid climate change will not be uniform because subalpine fir grows over a wide range of topographic features, habitats, and local climates at different geographical scales. A comparison of growth response to current growing season temperature suggests that the temperature-related growth response of subalpine fir is not adequately described by the parabolic curve used in JABOWA-based models.