Upslope migration of Andean trees

Aim Climate change causes shifts in species distributions, or ‘migrations’. Despite the centrality of species distributions to biodiversity conservation, the demonstrated large migration of tropical plant species in response to climate change in the past, and the expected sensitivity of species distributions to modern climate change, no study has tested for modern species migrations in tropical plants. Here we conduct a first test of the hypothesis that increasing temperatures are causing tropical trees to migrate to cooler areas. Location Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, south‐eastern Peru, South America. Methods We use data from repeated (2003/04–2007/08) censuses of 14 1‐ha forest inventory plots spanning an elevational gradient from 950 to 3400 m in Manu National Park in south‐eastern Peru, to characterize changes in the elevational distributions of 38 Andean tree genera. We also analyse changes in the genus‐level composition of the inventory plots through time. Results We show that most tropical Andean tree genera shifted their mean distributions upslope over the study period and that the mean rate of migration is approximately 2.5–3.5 vertical metres upslope per year. Consistent with upward migrations we also find increasing abundances of tree genera previously distributed at lower elevations in the majority of study plots. Main conclusions These findings are in accord with the a priori hypothesis of upward shifts in species ranges due to elevated temperatures, and are potentially the first documented evidence of present‐day climate‐driven migrations in a tropical plant community. The observed mean rate of change is less than predicted from the temperature increases for the region, possibly due to the influence of changes in moisture or non‐climatic factors such as substrate, species interactions, lags in tree community response and/or dispersal limitations. Whatever the cause(s), continued slower‐than‐expected migration of tropical Andean trees would indicate a limited ability to respond to increased temperatures, which may lead to increased extinction risks with further climate change.     

Are different facets of plant diversity well protected against climate and land cover changes? A test study in the French Alps

Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions and diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although the need for a multifaceted view of diversity based on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there are no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used a range of species distribution models in an ensemble‐forecasting framework together with regional climate and land cover projections by 2080 to analyze the potential threat for more than 2500 plant species at high resolution (2.5 × 2.5 km) in the French Alps. We also decomposed taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity facets into α and β components and analyzed their expected changes by 2080. Overall, plant species threats from climate and land cover changes in the French Alps were expected to vary depending on the species' preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, and conservation status. Indeed, rare species and species of conservation concern were the ones projected to experience less severe change, and also the ones being the most efficiently preserved by the current network of protected areas. Conversely, the three facets of plant diversity were also projected to experience drastic spatial re‐shuffling by 2080. In general, the mean α‐diversity of the three facets was projected to increase to the detriment of regional β‐diversity, although the latter was projected to remain high at the montane‐alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due to a high‐altitude distribution, the current protection network is efficient for rare species, and species predicted to migrate upward. Although our modeling framework may not capture all possible mechanisms of species range shifts, our work illustrates that a comprehensive risk assessment on an entire floristic region combined with functional and phylogenetic information can help delimitate future scenarios of biodiversity and better design its protection.     

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species

Land‐use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land‐use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land‐use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest‐dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land‐use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models

Concern over rapid global changes and the potential for interactions among multiple threats are prompting scientists to combine multiple modelling approaches to understand impacts on biodiversity. A relatively recent development is the combination of species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and dynamic population models to predict the relative and combined impacts of climate change, land‐use change, and altered disturbance regimes on species' extinction risk. Each modelling component introduces its own source of uncertainty through different parameters and assumptions, which, when combined, can result in compounded uncertainty that can have major implications for management. Although some uncertainty analyses have been conducted separately on various model components – such as climate predictions, species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and population models – a unified sensitivity analysis comparing various sources of uncertainty in combined modelling approaches is needed to identify the most influential and problematic assumptions. We estimated the sensitivities of long‐run population predictions to different ecological assumptions and parameter settings for a rare and endangered annual plant species (Acanthomintha ilicifolia, or San Diego thornmint). Uncertainty about habitat suitability predictions, due to the choice of species distribution model, contributed most to variation in predictions about long‐run populations.     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

Continent‐scale global change attribution in European birds ‐ combining annual and decadal time scales

Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes‐based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long‐term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land‐use change, including long‐term increases in populations of hot‐dwelling species and declines in long‐distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long‐term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high‐resolution time series are available in large‐scale biodiversity surveys.     

Twenty‐five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: nonclimatic factors of change

We analysed more than 25 years of change in passerine bird distribution in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, to show that species distributions can be influenced by processes that are at least in part independent of the local strength and direction of climate change: land use and ecological succession. We used occupancy models that separate species' detection from species' occupancy probability, fitted to citizen science data from both phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (1987–1996 and 2007–2013). Temporal trends in species' occupancy probability were interpreted in terms of local extinction/colonization, and temporal trends in detection probability were interpreted in terms of change in abundance. We found for the first time at this scale that, as predicted in the context of bush encroachment, closed‐savannah specialists increased where open‐savannah specialists decreased. In addition, the trend in the abundance of species a priori thought to be favoured by agricultural conversion was negatively correlated with human population density, which is in line with hypotheses explaining the decline in farmland birds in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to climate, vegetation cover and the intensity and time since agricultural conversion constitute important predictors of biodiversity changes in the region. Their inclusion will improve the reliability of predictive models of species distribution.     

Species vulnerability to climate change: impacts on spatial conservation priorities and species representation

Climate change may shrink and/or shift plant species ranges thereby increasing their vulnerability and requiring targeted conservation to facilitate adaptation. We quantified the vulnerability to climate change of plant species based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and assessed the effects of including these components in complementarity‐based spatial conservation prioritisation. We modelled the vulnerability of 584 native plant species under three climate change scenarios in an 11.9 million hectare fragmented agricultural region in southern Australia. We represented exposure as species' geographical range under each climate change scenario as quantified using species distribution models. We calculated sensitivity as a function of the impact of climate change on species' geographical ranges. Using a dispersal kernel, we quantified adaptive capacity as species' ability to migrate to new geographical ranges under each climate change scenario. Using Zonation, we assessed the impact of individual components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) on spatial conservation priorities and levels of species representation in priority areas under each climate change scenario. The full vulnerability framework proved an effective basis for identifying spatial conservation priorities under climate change. Including different dimensions of vulnerability had significant implications for spatial conservation priorities. Incorporating adaptive capacity increased the level of representation of most species. However, prioritising sensitive species reduced the representation of other species. We conclude that whilst taking an integrated approach to mitigating species vulnerability to climate change can ensure sensitive species are well‐represented in a conservation network, this can come at the cost of reduced representation of other species. Conservation planning decisions aimed at reducing species vulnerability to climate change need to be made in full cognisance of the sensitivity of spatial conservation priorities to individual components of vulnerability, and the trade‐offs associated with focussing on sensitive species.     

Do geographic distribution,niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.     

Predicting community rank‐abundance distributions under current and future climates

Understanding influences of environmental change on biodiversity requires consideration of more than just species richness. Here we present a novel framework for understanding possible changes in species' abundance structures within communities under climate change. We demonstrate this using comprehensive survey and environmental data from 1748 woody plant communities across southeast Queensland, Australia, to model rank‐abundance distributions (RADs) under current and future climates. Under current conditions, the models predicted RADs consistent with the region's dominant vegetation types. We demonstrate that under a business as usual climate scenario, total abundance and richness may decline in subtropical rainforest and shrubby heath, and increase in dry sclerophyll forests. Despite these opposing trends, we predicted evenness in the distribution of abundances between species to increase in all vegetation types. By assessing the information rich, multidimensional RAD, we show that climate‐driven changes to community abundance structures will likely vary depending on the current composition and environmental context.     

Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high‐elevation tree species migration

Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high‐elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high‐elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high‐elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high‐elevation species to climatic changes.     

Rarity,geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province

Aim

Rarity and geographic aspects of species distributions mediate their vulnerability to global change. We explore the relationships between species rarity and geography and their exposure to climate and land use change in a biodiversity hotspot.

Location

California, USA.

Taxa

One hundred and six terrestrial plants.

Methods

We estimated four rarity traits: range size, niche breadth, number of habitat patches, and patch isolation; and three geographic traits: mean elevation, topographic heterogeneity, and distance to coast. We used species distribution models to measure species exposure—predicted change in continuous habitat suitability within currently occupied habitat—under climate and land use change scenarios. Using regression models, decision-tree models and variance partitioning, we assessed the relationships between species rarity, geography, and exposure to climate and land use change.

Results

Rarity, geography and greenhouse gas emissions scenario explained >35% of variance in climate change exposure and >61% for land use change exposure. While rarity traits (range size and number of habitat patches) were most important for explaining species exposure to climate change, geographic traits (elevation and topographic heterogeneity) were more strongly associated with species' exposure to land use change.

Main conclusions

Species with restricted range sizes and low topographic heterogeneity across their distributions were predicted to be the most exposed to climate change, while species at low elevations were the most exposed to habitat loss via land use change. However, even some broadly distributed species were projected to lose >70% of their currently suitable habitat due to climate and land use change if they are in geographically vulnerable areas, emphasizing the need to consider both species rarity traits and geography in vulnerability assessments.     

Land use and life history limit migration capacity of eastern tree species

Aim

Temperate tree species overwhelmingly responded to past climate change by migrating rather than adapting. However, past climate change did not have the modern human‐driven patterns of land use and fragmentation, raising questions of whether tree migration will still be able to keep pace with climate. Previous studies using coarse‐grained or randomized landscapes suggest that dispersal may be delayed but have not identified outright barriers to migration. Here, we use real‐world fragmented landscapes at the scale of forest stands to assess the migration capacity of eastern tree species.

Location

Eastern U.S.A.

Time period

Present day to 2100.

Major taxa studied

Eastern U.S. trees.

Methods

We simulated dispersal over 100 years for 15 species common to the mid‐Atlantic region and that are predicted to gain suitable habitat in the northeast. In contrast to previous studies, we incorporated greater realism with species‐specific life histories and real‐world spatial configurations of anthropogenic land use. We used simulation results to calculate dispersal rates for each species and related these to predicted rates of species habitat shift.

Results

Our simulations suggest that land use in the human‐dominated east‐coast corridor slows species dispersal rates by 12–40% and may prevent keeping pace with climate. Species most impacted by anthropogenic land use were often those with the highest predicted species habitat shifts. We identified two major dispersal barriers, the Washington DC metropolitan area and central NY, that severely impeded tree migration.

Main conclusions

Patterns of anthropogenic land use not only slowed migration but also resulted in effective barriers to dispersal. These impacts were exacerbated by tree life histories, such as long ages to maturity and narrow dispersal kernels. Without intervention, the migration lags predicted here may lead to loss in biodiversity and ecosystem functions as current forest species decline, and may contribute to formation of novel communities.     

Human land use is comparable to climate as a driver of global plant occurrence and abundance across life forms

Aim

Historically, climate has been a dominant driver of global vegetation patterns. Recently, ecological understanding has been updated to acknowledge the influence of human land use (the dominant driver of biodiversity change) in shaping global vegetation patterns. We test whether Raunkiær's life form, a plant classification system designed to reflect climatic drivers, affects how plants respond to both land use and climate.

Location

Forty-one countries across six continents.

Time period

1990 to 2013.

Major taxa studied

Terrestrial plants.

Methods

Combining data from the biodiversity and land use database PREDICTS, and plant trait databases TRY and BIEN, we use generalized linear mixed models with weighted effects coding to test whether Raunkiær's life form affects plant response to land use and climate in over 4800 species at over 300 sites globally.

Results

We provide evidence that human land use is comparable to climate in influencing life form occurrence and that land use produces divergent outcomes across life forms.

Main conclusions

Combined with climatic suitability, land use acts as a filter contracting the realized niche of trees and expanding the realized niche of disturbance-tolerant species. Our results highlight the fundamental role of human activity in shaping species' distribution.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

Rapid climate driven shifts in wintering distributions of three common waterbird species

Climate change is predicted to cause changes in species distributions and several studies report margin range shifts in some species. However, the reported changes rarely concern a species' entire distribution and are not always linked to climate change. Here, we demonstrate strong north‐eastwards shifts in the centres of gravity of the entire wintering range of three common waterbird species along the North‐West Europe flyway during the past three decades. These shifts correlate with an increase of 3.8 °C in early winter temperature in the north‐eastern part of the wintering areas, where bird abundance increased exponentially, corresponding with decreases in abundance at the south‐western margin of the wintering ranges. This confirms the need to re‐evaluate conservation site safeguard networks and associated biodiversity monitoring along the flyway, as new important wintering areas are established further north and east, and highlights the general urgency of conservation planning in a changing world. Range shifts in wintering waterbirds may also affect hunting pressure, which may alter bag sizes and lead to population‐level consequences.     

Habitat restoration will help some functional plant types persist under climate change in fragmented landscapes

In the next century, global climate change is predicted to have large influences on species' distributions. Much of the research in this area has focused on predicting the areas where conditions will be suitable for the species in future, and thus the potential distribution of the species. However, it is equally important to predict the relative abilities of species to migrate into new suitable areas as conditions shift, while accounting for dynamic processes, such as dispersal, maturation, mortality, and reproduction, as well as landscape characteristics, such as level of habitat fragmentation and connectivity. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual‐based model that addresses these factors. As a motivating case study, we based aspects of the model on southwest Australia, a global biodiversity hotspot, but stress that the results obtained are generalizable beyond this region. Using the model, we enhanced current understanding of climate change impacts by investigating how and to what extent the functional traits of plant species affect their ability to move with climate change across landscapes with various levels of fragmentation. We also tested the efficacy of strategic restoration, such as planting corridors to increase connectivity among fragments. We found that even if the landscape is fully intact, only an average of 34.2% of all simulated functional groups had a good chance of successfully tracking climate change. However, our study highlights the power of strategic restoration as a tool for increasing species persistence. Corridors linking fragments increased species persistence rates by up to 24%. The lowest persistence rates were found for trees, a functional group with high dispersal but also long generation times. Our results indicate that for trees intervention techniques, such as assisted migration might be required to prevent species losses.     

Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed.     

Breeding ground temperature rises,more than habitat change,are associated with spatially variable population trends in two species of migratory bird

Habitat loss and climate change are key drivers of global biodiversity declines but their relative importance has rarely been examined. We attempted to attribute spatially divergent population trends of two Afro-Palaearctic migrant warbler species, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus and Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, to changes in breeding grounds climate or habitat. We used bird counts from over 4000 sites across the UK between 1994 and 2017, monitored as part of the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey. We modelled Willow Warbler and Common Chiffchaff population size and growth in relation to habitat, climate and weather. We then used the abundance model coefficients and observed environmental changes to determine the extent to which spatially varying population trends in England and Scotland were consistent with attribution to climate and habitat changes. Both species' population size and growth correlated with habitat, climate and weather on their breeding grounds. Changes in habitat, in particular woodland expansion, could be linked to small population increases for both species in England and Scotland. Both species' populations correlated more strongly with climate than weather, and both had an optimum breeding season temperature: 11°C for Willow Warbler and around 13.5°C for Common Chiffchaff (with marginally different predictions from population size and growth models). Breeding ground temperature increases, therefore, had the potential to have caused some of the observed Willow Warbler declines in England (where the mean breeding season temperature was 12.7°C) and increases in Scotland (mean breeding season temperature was 10.2°C), and some of the differential rates of increase for Common Chiffchaff. However, much of the variation in species' population abundance and trends were not well predicted by our models and could be due to other factors, such as species interactions, habitat and climate change in their wintering grounds and on migration. This study provides evidence that the effect of climate change on a species may vary spatially and may switch from being beneficial to being detrimental if a temperature threshold is exceeded.