Use of Kampo Diagnosis in Randomized Controlled Trials of Kampo Products in Japan: A Systematic Review

Background

The Committee for Evidence-based Medicine (EBM) of the Japan Society for Oriental Medicine started compiling Evidence Reports of Kampo Treatment (EKAT) in 2007. EKAT is a compilation of structured abstracts of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), along with comments by a third party reviewer. As of 31 December, 2012, there were 378 RCTs of Kampo medicines in Japan. The primary research question of this study is “How frequently is Kampo diagnosis used in RCTs of Kampo medicines?” The secondary research question is “When is Kampo diagnosis used in RCTs?”

Materials and Methods

The structured abstract (SA) of each RCT article was reviewed to examine how Kampo diagnosis was used in RCTs, especially how Kampo diagnosis was used in the randomization process.

Results

Kampo diagnosis was used before randomization in 27 RCTs (7.1%), after randomization in 31 RCTs (8.2%), and not used in 320 RCTs (84.7%). Before randomization, Kampo diagnosis was used as a criterion for inclusion in 10 RCTs, criterion for exclusion in 9 RCTs, and criteria for both inclusion and exclusion in 2 RCTs. Kampo formulas were determined according to Kampo diagnosis in 7 RCTs. After randomization, subgroup analyses according to Kampo diagnosis were done in 27 RCTs, and grade of disease severity at Kampo diagnosis was used for analysis as an endpoint in 4 RCTs.

Conclusions

Kampo diagnosis was used before randomization only in approximately 15% of RCTs, and the number of RCT articles using Kampo diagnosis after randomization was almost the same as that before randomization. Further studies to determine the good RCTs conforming to CONSORT requirements and good systematic reviews conforming to PRISMA requirements are needed to clarify the significance of Kampo diagnosis.     

Mechanical explanation of nature and its limits in Kant’s Critique of judgment

In this paper I discuss two questions. What does Kant understand by mechanical explanation in the Critique of judgment? And why does he think that mechanical explanation is the only type of the explanation of nature available to us? According to the interpretation proposed, mechanical explanations in the Critique of judgment refer to a particular species of empirical causal laws. Mechanical laws aim to explain nature by reference to the causal interaction between the forces of the parts of matter and the way in which they form into complex material wholes. Just like any other empirical causal law, however, mechanical laws can never be known with full certainty. The conception according to which we can explain all of nature by means of mechanical laws, it turns out, is based on what Kant calls ‘regulative’ or ‘reflective’ considerations about nature. Nothing in Kant’s Critique of judgment suggests that these considerations can ever be justified by reference to how the natural world really is. I suggest that what, upon first consideration, appears to be a thoroughly mechanistic conception of nature in Kant is much more limited than one might have expected.     

Darwin, Herschel, and the role of analogy in Darwin’s origin

In what follows, I consider the role of analogy in the first edition of Darwin’s Origin. I argue that Darwin follows Herschel’s methodology and hence exploits an analogy between artificial and natural selection that allows him generalize selection as a cause of evolutionary change. This argument strategy is not equivalent to an argument from analogy. Reading Darwin’s argument as conforming to Herschel’s two-step methodology of causal analysis followed by generalization allows us to understand the role and placement of Darwin’s discussion of artificial selection in the Origin, without making the mistake of portraying Darwin’s argument for the existence and character of natural selection as an analogical argument.     

The methodological quality of 176,620 randomized controlled trials published between 1966 and 2018 reveals a positive trend but also an urgent need for improvement

Many randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are biased and difficult to reproduce due to methodological flaws and poor reporting. There is increasing attention for responsible research practices and implementation of reporting guidelines, but whether these efforts have improved the methodological quality of RCTs (e.g., lower risk of bias) is unknown. We, therefore, mapped risk-of-bias trends over time in RCT publications in relation to journal and author characteristics. Meta-information of 176,620 RCTs published between 1966 and 2018 was extracted. The risk-of-bias probability (random sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding of patients/personnel, and blinding of outcome assessment) was assessed using a risk-of-bias machine learning tool. This tool was simultaneously validated using 63,327 human risk-of-bias assessments obtained from 17,394 RCTs evaluated in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). Moreover, RCT registration and CONSORT Statement reporting were assessed using automated searches. Publication characteristics included the number of authors, journal impact factor (JIF), and medical discipline. The annual number of published RCTs substantially increased over 4 decades, accompanied by increases in authors (5.2 to 7.8) and institutions (2.9 to 4.8). The risk of bias remained present in most RCTs but decreased over time for allocation concealment (63% to 51%), random sequence generation (57% to 36%), and blinding of outcome assessment (58% to 52%). Trial registration (37% to 47%) and the use of the CONSORT Statement (1% to 20%) also rapidly increased. In journals with a higher impact factor (>10), the risk of bias was consistently lower with higher levels of RCT registration and the use of the CONSORT Statement. Automated risk-of-bias predictions had accuracies above 70% for allocation concealment (70.7%), random sequence generation (72.1%), and blinding of patients/personnel (79.8%), but not for blinding of outcome assessment (62.7%). In conclusion, the likelihood of bias in RCTs has generally decreased over the last decades. This optimistic trend may be driven by increased knowledge augmented by mandatory trial registration and more stringent reporting guidelines and journal requirements. Nevertheless, relatively high probabilities of bias remain, particularly in journals with lower impact factors. This emphasizes that further improvement of RCT registration, conduct, and reporting is still urgently needed.

Many randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are biased and difficult to reproduce due to methodological flaws and poor reporting. Analysis of 176,620 RCTs published between 1966 and 2018 reveals that the risk of bias in RCTs generally decreased. Nevertheless, relatively high probabilities of bias remain, showing that further improvement of RCT registration, conduct, and reporting is still urgently needed.     

Generalizing treatment effects with incomplete covariates: Identifying assumptions and multiple imputation algorithms

We focus on the problem of generalizing a causal effect estimated on a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to a target population described by a set of covariates from observational data. Available methods such as inverse propensity sampling weighting are not designed to handle missing values, which are however common in both data sources. In addition to coupling the assumptions for causal effect identifiability and for the missing values mechanism and to defining appropriate estimation strategies, one difficulty is to consider the specific structure of the data with two sources and treatment and outcome only available in the RCT. We propose three multiple imputation strategies to handle missing values when generalizing treatment effects, each handling the multisource structure of the problem differently (separate imputation, joint imputation with fixed effect, joint imputation ignoring source information). As an alternative to multiple imputation, we also propose a direct estimation approach that treats incomplete covariates as semidiscrete variables. The multiple imputation strategies and the latter alternative rely on different sets of assumptions concerning the impact of missing values on identifiability. We discuss these assumptions and assess the methods through an extensive simulation study. This work is motivated by the analysis of a large registry of over 20,000 major trauma patients and an RCT studying the effect of tranexamic acid administration on mortality in major trauma patients admitted to intensive care units. The analysis illustrates how the missing values handling can impact the conclusion about the effect generalized from the RCT to the target population.     

New times for biology: nerve cultures and the advent of cellular life in vitro

This article is about the beginnings of tissue culture—the culture of living, reproducing cells of complex organisms outside the body. It argues that Ross Harrison’s experiments in nerve culture between 1907 and 1910 should be viewed as part of a larger shift in early twentieth-century laboratory practice from in vivo to in vitro experimentation. Via a focus on the temporality of experiment—contrasting the live object of Harrison’s investigation with the static object of histological representations—this article details the production of a new and surprising form of life, cellular life in vitro. Tissue culture, developed from Harrison’s experiments, was greeted with great surprise and disbelief, despite Harrison’s protestations that he had merely juxtaposed extant techniques. An analysis of these initial reactions to tissue culture illuminates the extent to which cells living visibly outside of the body in glass broke with in vivo practices and assumptions of the hiddenness and interiority of certain processes of growth and change.     

A possible contribution of phenomenology to ethology: Application to a behaviour pattern in the mouse

Classical ethology encourages a causal approach to animal behaviour, using Tinbergen's four questions concerning evolution, function, mechanism and development of behaviour. It sets aside the study of mental processes, which could otherwise help to unify our picture of the relationships between animal and environment. Here the steps in research focused on the psychological meaning of a peculiar behaviour in the mouse — carrying its tail — and what this implies regarding the mouse's cognitive world are given. Initial empirical observations suggested epistemic choices concerning space and object notions in the mouse; this led us to go beyond the first stage in exploring the significance of this behaviour. Later experiments showed the limitations of an explanation based on a cause-effect relationship. An interpretative model integrating a phenomenological conceptual framework is proposed.     

Randomised Trial Support for Orthopaedic Surgical Procedures

We investigated the proportion of orthopaedic procedures supported by evidence from randomised controlled trials comparing operative procedures to a non-operative alternative. Orthopaedic procedures conducted in 2009, 2010 and 2011 across three metropolitan teaching hospitals were identified, grouped and ranked according to frequency. Searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) were performed to identify RCTs evaluating the most commonly performed orthopaedic procedures. Included studies were categorised as “supportive” or “not supportive” of operative treatment. A risk of bias analysis was conducted for included studies using the Cochrane Collaboration''s Risk of Bias tool. A total of 9,392 orthopaedic procedures were performed across the index period. 94.6% (8886 procedures) of the total volume, representing the 32 most common operative procedure categories, were used for this analysis. Of the 83 included RCTs, 22.9% (19/83) were classified as supportive of operative intervention. 36.9% (3279/8886) of the total volume of procedures performed were supported by at least one RCT showing surgery to be superior to a non-operative alternative. 19.6% (1743/8886) of the total volume of procedures performed were supported by at least one low risk of bias RCT showing surgery to be superior to a non-operative alternative. The level of RCT support for common orthopaedic procedures compares unfavourably with other fields of medicine.     

Treatment Trials for Neonatal Seizures: The Effect of Design on Sample Size

Neonatal seizures are common in the neonatal intensive care unit. Clinicians treat these seizures with several anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) to reduce seizures in a neonate. Current AEDs exhibit sub-optimal efficacy and several randomized control trials (RCT) of novel AEDs are planned. The aim of this study was to measure the influence of trial design on the required sample size of a RCT. We used seizure time courses from 41 term neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy to build seizure treatment trial simulations. We used five outcome measures, three AED protocols, eight treatment delays from seizure onset (T_d) and four levels of trial AED efficacy to simulate different RCTs. We performed power calculations for each RCT design and analysed the resultant sample size. We also assessed the rate of false positives, or placebo effect, in typical uncontrolled studies. We found that the false positive rate ranged from 5 to 85% of patients depending on RCT design. For controlled trials, the choice of outcome measure had the largest effect on sample size with median differences of 30.7 fold (IQR: 13.7–40.0) across a range of AED protocols, T_d and trial AED efficacy (p<0.001). RCTs that compared the trial AED with positive controls required sample sizes with a median fold increase of 3.2 (IQR: 1.9–11.9; p<0.001). Delays in AED administration from seizure onset also increased the required sample size 2.1 fold (IQR: 1.7–2.9; p<0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that RCTs in neonates treated with hypothermia required a median fold increase in sample size of 2.6 (IQR: 2.4–3.0) compared to trials in normothermic neonates (p<0.001). These results show that RCT design has a profound influence on the required sample size. Trials that use a control group, appropriate outcome measure, and control for differences in T_d between groups in analysis will be valid and minimise sample size.     

Associated Factors and Consequences of Risk of Bias in Randomized Controlled Trials of Yoga: A Systematic Review

Background

Bias in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of complementary therapy interventions seems to be associated with specific factors and to potentially distort the studies’ conclusions. This systematic review assessed associated factors of risk of bias and consequences for the studies’ conclusions in RCTs of yoga as one of the most commonly used complementary therapies.

Methods

Medline/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014 for yoga RCTs. Risk of selection bias was assessed using the Cochrane tool and regressed to a) publication year; b) country of origin; c) journal type; and d) impact factor using multiple logistic regression analysis. Likewise, the authors’ conclusions were regressed to risk of bias.

Results

A total of 312 RCTs were included. Impact factor ranged from 0.0 to 39.2 (median = 1.3); 60 RCT (19.2%) had a low risk of selection bias, and 252 (80.8%) had a high or unclear risk of selection bias. Only publication year and impact factor significantly predicted low risk of bias; RCTs published after 2001 (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 12.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.7, 94.0; p<0.001) and those published in journals with impact factor (adjusted OR = 2.6; 95%CI = 1.4, 4.9; p = 0.004) were more likely to have low risk of bias. The authors’ conclusions were not associated with risk of bias.

Conclusions

Risk of selection bias was generally high in RCTs of yoga; although the situation has improved since the publication of the revised CONSORT statement 2001. Pre-CONSORT RCTs and those published in journals without impact factor should be handled with increased care; although risk of bias is unlikely to distort the RCTs’ conclusions.     

Relationship between treatment preference and weight loss in the context of a randomized controlled trial

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard used to assess the efficacy of treatment. While a well implemented RCT can produce an unbiased estimate of the relative difference between treatment groups, the generalizability of these findings may be limited. Specific threats to the external validity include treatment preference. The purposes of this study were to: (i) assess whether receiving one's treatment preference was associated with weight loss and retention and (ii) whether receiving one's treatment preference modified the relationship between the treatments and weight loss. Treatment preference was assessed in 250 subjects prior to but independent of randomization into either low-carbohydrate or low-fat diets. Treatment preference was a predictor of weight loss (P = 0.002) but not retention (P = 0.90). Participants who received their preference lost less weight (-7.7 kg, 95% confidence interval (CI): -9.3 to -6.1) than participants who did not receive their preference (-9.7 kg, 95% CI: -11.4 to -8.1) and participants who did not report a strong preference at baseline (-11.2 kg, 95% CI: -12.6 to -9.7) (P = 0.04 and P = 0.0004, respectively). Treatment preference did not modify the effect of the treatment on weight loss. Contrary to conceptual predictions, this study failed to identify an interaction between treatment preference and weight loss in the setting of a randomized trial. Until treatment preference effects are definitively ruled out in this domain, future studies might consider stratifying their randomization procedure by treatment preference rather than excluding participants with strong treatment preferences.     

A genome-wide association study identifies 5 loci associated with frozen shoulder and implicates diabetes as a causal risk factor

Frozen shoulder is a painful condition that often requires surgery and affects up to 5% of individuals aged 40–60 years. Little is known about the causes of the condition, but diabetes is a strong risk factor. To begin to understand the biological mechanisms involved, we aimed to identify genetic variants associated with frozen shoulder and to use Mendelian randomization to test the causal role of diabetes. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of frozen shoulder in the UK Biobank using data from 10,104 cases identified from inpatient, surgical and primary care codes. We used data from FinnGen for replication and meta-analysis. We used one-sample and two-sample Mendelian randomization approaches to test for a causal association of diabetes with frozen shoulder. We identified five genome-wide significant loci. The most significant locus (lead SNP rs28971325; OR = 1.20, [95% CI: 1.16–1.24], p = 5x10^-29) contained WNT7B. This variant was also associated with Dupuytren’s disease (OR = 2.31 [2.24, 2.39], p<1x10^-300) as were a further two of the frozen shoulder associated variants. The Mendelian randomization results provided evidence that type 1 diabetes is a causal risk factor for frozen shoulder (OR = 1.03 [1.02–1.05], p = 3x10^-6). There was no evidence that obesity was causally associated with frozen shoulder, suggesting that diabetes influences risk of the condition through glycemic rather than mechanical effects. We have identified genetic loci associated with frozen shoulder. There is a large overlap with Dupuytren’s disease associated loci. Diabetes is a likely causal risk factor. Our results provide evidence of biological mechanisms involved in this common painful condition.     

Effect of Black Tea Consumption on Blood Cholesterol: A Meta-Analysis of 15 Randomized Controlled Trials

Background

The results of the studies that have investigated the effects of black tea on blood cholesterol are inconsistent. The aim of this study is to quantitatively assess the effects of black tea on cholesterol concentrations.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Library (through to July 2014) were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) designed to investigate the effect of black tea on blood cholesterol concentrations. The study quality was assessed by the Jadad scoring criteria. Pooled effect of black tea consumption on blood cholesterol concentrations was evaluated by fixed-effects or random-effects model. Meta-regression analyses were conducted to estimate dose effects of black tea polyphenols on concentrations of blood cholesterol. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the potential source of heterogeneity.

Results

The consumption of black tea did not significantly lower TC concentrations either in healthy subjects or patients with coronary artery diseases based on both fixed-effects and random-effects analysis. No significant change was observed in HDL-C concentrations in healthy participants or in subjects with coronary artery disease supplemented with black tea when compared with control participants. The pooled net change of LDL-C in healthy participants was −5.57 mg/dL (95% CI, −9.49 to −1.66 mg/dL; P = 0.005) in fixed-effects analysis and −4.56 (95% CI, −10.30 to 1.17 mg/dL; P = 0.12) in random-effects analysis. No significant net change was observed in LDL-C concentrations in patients with coronary artery disease. Subgroup and sensitivity did not significantly influence the overall outcomes of this meta-analysis. No significant dose effects of black tea polyphenols on blood cholesterol concentrations were detected in meta-regression analyses.

Conclusion

The meta-analysis suggests that the consumption of black tea might not have beneficial effects on concentrations of TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C. Further high quality RCTs are needed to definitively draw a causal interpretation of the findings.