Migratory pathways,stopover zones and wintering destinations of Western European Nightjars Caprimulgus europaeus

Little is known about the wintering distribution of the European Nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus. We combined geolocator and GPS‐logger data from different sites in Western Europe to analyse migration routes and migration timing of this trans‐equatorial migrant. Nightjars followed a loop migration route during which they cross two ecological barriers, and converged near common stopover zones in Northern, Central and Western Africa, where they stayed for 2–3 weeks. Nightjars used the same stopover sites as several other European migrants, relying on small and discrete wintering areas within the Democratic Republic of Congo. This confirms the importance of these specific zones and highlights the vulnerability of Western European populations to habitat loss in their non‐breeding areas.     

Discovering the migration and non‐breeding areas of sand martins and house martins breeding in the Pannonian basin (central‐eastern Europe)

The central‐eastern European populations of sand martin and house martin have declined in the last decades. The drivers for this decline cannot be identified as long as the whereabouts of these long distance migrants remain unknown outside the breeding season. Ringing recoveries of sand martins from central‐eastern Europe are widely scattered in the Mediterranean basin and in Africa, suggesting various migration routes and a broad non‐breeding range. The European populations of house martins are assumed to be longitudinally separated across their non‐breeding range and thus narrow population‐specific non‐breeding areas are expected. By using geolocators, we identified for the first time, the migration routes and non‐breeding areas of sand martins (n = 4) and house martins (n = 5) breeding in central‐eastern Europe. In autumn, the Carpathian Bend and northern parts of the Balkan Peninsula serve as important pre‐migration areas for both species. All individuals crossed the Mediterranean Sea from Greece to Libya. Sand martins spent the non‐breeding season in northern Cameroon and the Lake Chad Basin, within less than a 700 km radius, while house martins were widely scattered in three distinct regions in central, eastern, and southern Africa. Thus, for both species, the expected strength of migratory connectivity could not be confirmed. House martins, but not sand martins, migrated about twice as fast in spring compared to autumn. The spring migration started with a net average speed of > 400 km d^–1 for sand martins, and > 800 km d^–1 for house martins. However, both species used several stopover sites for 0.5–4 d and were stationary for nearly half of their spring migration. Arrival at breeding grounds was mainly related to departure from the last sub‐Saharan non‐breeding site rather than distance, route, or stopovers. We assume a strong carry‐over effect on timing in spring.     

Transcontinental migratory connectivity predicts parasite prevalence in breeding populations of the European barn swallow

Parasites exert a major impact on the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of their hosts and the associated biotic environment. Migration constitutes an effective means for long‐distance invasions of vector‐borne parasites and promotes their rapid spread. Yet, ecological and spatial information on population‐specific host–parasite connectivity is essentially lacking. Here, we address this question in a system consisting of a transcontinental migrant species, the European barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) which serves as a vector for avian endoparasites in the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon. Using feather stable isotope ratios as geographically informative markers, we first assessed migratory connectivity in the host: Northern European breeding populations predominantly overwintered in dry, savannah‐like habitats in Southern Africa, whereas Southern European populations were associated with wetland habitats in Western Central Africa. Wintering areas of swallows breeding in Central Europe indicated a migratory divide with both migratory programmes occurring within the same breeding population. Subsequent genetic screens of parasites in the breeding populations revealed a link between the host's migratory programme and its parasitic repertoire: controlling for effects of local breeding location, prevalence of Africa‐transmitted Plasmodium lineages was significantly higher in individuals overwintering in the moist habitats of Western Central Africa, even among sympatrically breeding individuals with different overwintering locations. For the rarer Haemoproteus parasites, prevalence was best explained by breeding location alone, whereas no clear pattern emerged for the least abundant parasite Leucocytozoon. These results have implications for our understanding of spatio‐temporal host–parasite dynamics in migratory species and the spread of avian borne diseases.     

Climatic connectivity between Africa and Europe may serve as a basis for phenotypic adjustment of migration schedules of trans-Saharan migratory birds

Most European migratory birds wintering in sub‐Saharan Africa have anticipated arrival to the breeding areas over the past decades. This phenological change may be ultimately caused by warming of the Northern Hemisphere via evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity in migration behavior. First arrival dates are negatively predicted by temperatures upon arrival to the breeding grounds. This seems puzzling, because migrants should be unable to predict weather conditions at long range. Migrants can enjoy diverse fitness benefits from early arriving. However, if weather conditions at destination cannot be predicted, early arrival can also entail severe costs. If meteorological conditions in Europe during breeding covary with those in sub‐Saharan Africa during late winter, long‐distance migrants may have a clue to predict meteorological conditions in their breeding areas while they are still in Africa and adjust their migration schedule consequently, an idea that has never been tested. We analyzed the correlation between March–April temperature anomalies (T_an) in Europe and February T_an in the Sahel and sub‐Sahel, where long‐distance migrants winter or stop‐over. T_an in Africa negatively predicted T_an in Europe, the association being particularly strong (unsigned effect size, z_r>0.35) for eastern Sahel and northern and eastern Europe, where the risks of early arrival may be larger. However, the strength of the correlations between T_an in the two continents has declined during the last 25 years; thus, possibly, partly compromising adaptive mechanisms of adjustment of migration. The existence of such climatic connectivity leads to several predictions, including that positive T_an in Africa should delay arrival. Consistent with this prediction, we found that first arrival dates of seven long‐distance migratory species positively covaried with February T_an in Africa. Thus, while wintering, migrants might be able to predict meteorological conditions at the beginning of the breeding season, and phenotypically adjust migration schedules to optimally tune arrival date.     

Low and annually variable migratory connectivity in a long‐distance migrant: Whinchats Saxicola rubetra may show a bet‐hedging strategy

The spatial scale of non‐breeding areas used by long‐distance migrant animals can vary from specific, relatively small non‐breeding areas for each independent breeding population (high connectivity) to a distribution over a large non‐breeding area with mixing of breeding populations (low connectivity). Measuring variation in the degree of connectivity and how it arises is crucial to predict how migratory animals can respond to global habitat and climate change because low connectivity is likely to be an adaptation to environmental uncertainty. Here, we assess whether use of non‐breeding areas in a long‐distance migrant may be stochastic by measuring the degree of connectivity, and whether it is annually variable. Twenty‐nine wintering Whinchats tagged with geolocators over 2 years within 40 km² in central Nigeria were found to be breeding over 2.55 million km² (26% of the land area of Europe), without an asymptote being approached in the relationship between area and sample size. Ranges differed in size between years by 1.51 million km² and only 15% of the total breeding range across both years overlapped (8% overlap between years when only first‐year birds were considered), well above the range size difference and below the proportion of overlap that would be predicted from two equivalent groups breeding at random locations within the observed range. Mean distance between breeding locations (i.e. migratory spread) differed significantly between years (604 ± 18 km in 2013 and 869 ± 33 km in 2014). The results showed very low and variable connectivity that was reasonably robust to the errors and assumptions inherent in the use of geolocators, but with the caveat of having only ranges of 2 years to compare, and the sensitivity of range to the breeding locations of a small number of individuals. However, if representative, the results suggest the scope for between‐year variation (cohort effects) to determine migrant distribution on a large scale. Furthermore, for species with similarly low connectivity, we would predict breeding population trends to reflect average conditions across large non‐breeding areas: thus, as large areas of Africa become subject to habitat loss, migrant populations throughout Europe will decline.     

Patterns in departure phenology and mass gain on African non‐breeding territories prior to the Sahara crossing in a long‐distance migrant

Afro‐Palaearctic migrants are declining to a greater degree than other European species, suggesting that processes occurring in Africa or on migration may be driving these trends. Constraints on food availability on the wintering grounds may contribute to these declines but little is known about when and where these resource constraints may occur. Sufficient resources are particularly important prior to spring migration, when migrants must cross the Sahara Desert. We examined mass gain and departure phenology in a long‐distance Palaearctic passerine migrant to determine the degree to which pre‐migratory fattening occurs in their long‐term non‐breeding territories in the Guinea Savannah region of Africa. We monitored 75 Whinchats Saxicola rubetra for departure from their non‐breeding territories in one spring, and analysed mass data of 377 Whinchats collected over three non‐breeding seasons plus 141 migrating Whinchats caught in April over 8 years, all within the same few square kilometres of human‐modified Guinea Savannah in central Nigeria. Whinchats left their winter territories throughout April, with males departing on average 8 days earlier than females. However, there was no evidence that time of departure from territory was linked to age, body size or mass at capture. Whinchats departed their territories with a predicted mass of 16.8 ± 0.3 g, considerably less than the c. 24 g required for the average Whinchat to cross the Sahara directly. Comparing departure dates with arrival dates in southern Europe showed a discrepancy of at least 2 weeks, suggesting that many Whinchats spend considerable time on pre‐migratory fuelling outside their winter territory prior to crossing the Sahara. Overwintering birds gained mass slowly during February and March (0.03 g/day), and non‐territorial or migrating birds at a much higher rate in April (at least 0.23 g/day), with up to 20% of migrating Whinchats in April potentially having sufficient fuel loads to cross the Sahara directly from central Nigeria. Our results suggest that most Whinchats leave their winter territories to fatten up locally or, possibly, by staging further north, closer to the southern limit of the Sahara. Resource constraints are therefore likely to be particularly focused in West Africa during mid‐April and possibly at staging areas before the crossing of the Sahara Desert.     

Across a migratory divide: divergent migration directions and non‐breeding grounds of Eurasian reed warblers revealed by geolocators and stable isotopes

Migratory divides represent narrow zones of overlap between parapatric populations with distinct migration directions and, consequently, expected divergent non‐breeding distributions. The composition of the mixed population at a migratory divide and the corresponding non‐breeding ranges remain, however, unknown for many Palaearctic‐African migrants. Here, we used light‐level geolocation to track migration direction and non‐breeding grounds of Eurasian reed warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus from three breeding populations across the species’ migratory divide. Moreover, by using feathers grown at non‐breeding grounds, we quantified stable isotope composition for individuals with known southwestern (SW) and southeastern (SE) migration directions. On a larger sample per population, we then assessed the proportions of SW‐ and SE‐migrating phenotypes in each of the three populations. All tracked reed warblers from Germany and two thirds of the birds tagged from the Czech population headed initially SW. Nevertheless, about one third of the birds from the Czech site migrated towards SE. No tracking data have been obtained for the Bulgarian population. The initial migration direction determined by geolocators was a strong predictor of the non‐breeding region, with SW migrants staying in west Africa and SE migrants in central Africa. Feather δ³⁴S and δ¹⁵N values confirmed the predominance of SW migrants in the German population, the co‐occurrence of SW and SE migrants in the Czech population, and indicated a high (72%) proportion of SE migrants in the Bulgarian population. Thus, the combined approach of geolocator tracking and stable isotopic assignments provided clear evidence for the existence of a migratory divide in the southeast of central Europe and predicted non‐breeding range in central and central‐eastern Africa for the eastern population.     

Effects of migration distance on life history strategies of Western and Semipalmated sandpipers in Perú

Migration distances of shorebird species correlate with life history strategies. To assess age‐specific migratory preparation and adult wing‐molt strategies, we studied Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) and Semipalmated Sandpipers (C. pusilla) with different migration routes at the Paracas National Reserve in Perú, one of the most austral non‐breeding areas for these sandpipers, from 2012 to 2015. Western Sandpipers breed near the Bering Sea, ~11,000 km from Paracas. Semipalmated Sandpiper populations at Paracas are a mixture of short‐billed birds from western Arctic breeding sites, plus long‐billed birds from eastern sites, ~8000 km distant. Adults of both species arrive in October with primary feathers already partially renewed so wing molt starts at sites further north. Semipalmated Sandpipers with longer bills completed wing molt later than shorter billed birds. Adults of both species prepared for migration in February and March. No juvenile Western Sandpipers prepared for migration, confirming the “slow” over‐summering life history strategy of more southerly non‐breeding populations. Juvenile Semipalmated Sandpipers showed bimodality in strategies. Most showed no migratory preparation, but, during three non‐breeding periods, from 27% to 31% fattened, molted, and partially replaced outer primaries during the pre‐migratory period. Juveniles with longer culmens were heavier and tended to have more alternate plumage. Juveniles that were partially molting primaries had longer culmens and more alternate plumage. Juvenile Semipalmated Sandpipers from eastern‐breeding populations thus have a higher propensity for a fast life history strategy, and western birds a slow one, at this non‐breeding site in Peru. Western‐breeding Semipalmated Sandpiper populations thus resemble Western Sandpipers, suggesting a common, possibly distance‐related, effect on life history strategy.     

Estimating dispersal distributions at multiple scales: within‐colony and among‐colony dispersal rates,distances and directions in European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis

Knowledge of the rate, distance and direction of dispersal within and among breeding areas is required to understand and predict demographic and genetic connectivity and resulting population and evolutionary dynamics. However dispersal rates, and the full distributions of dispersal distances and directions, are rarely comprehensively estimated across all spatial scales relevant to wild populations. We used re‐sightings of European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis colour‐ringed as chicks on the Isle of May (IoM), UK, to quantify rates, distances and directions of dispersal from natal to subsequent breeding sites both within IoM (within‐colony dispersal) and across 27 other breeding colonies covering 1045 km of coastline (among‐colony dispersal). Additionally, we used non‐breeding season surveys covering 895 km of coastline to estimate breeding season detection probability and hence potential bias in estimated dispersal parameters. Within IoM, 99.6% of individuals dispersed between their natal and observed breeding nest‐site. The distribution of within‐colony dispersal distances was right‐skewed; mean distance was shorter than expected given random settlement within IoM, yet some individuals dispersed long distances within the colony. The distribution of within‐colony dispersal directions was non‐uniform but did not differ from expectation given the spatial arrangement of nest‐sites. However, 10% of all 460 colour‐ringed adults that were located breeding had dispersed to a different colony. The maximum observed dispersal distance (170 km) was much smaller than the maximum distance surveyed (690 km). The distribution of among‐colony dispersal distances was again right‐skewed. Among‐colony dispersal was directional, and differed from random expectation and from the distribution of within‐colony dispersal directions. Non‐breeding season surveys suggested that the probability of detecting a colour‐ringed adult at its breeding location was high in the northeastern UK (98%). Estimated dispersal rates and distributions were therefore robust to incomplete detection. Overall, these data demonstrate skewed and directionally divergent dispersal distributions across small (within‐colony) and large (among‐colony) scales, indicating that dispersal could create genetic and demographic connectivity within the study area.     

Landscape genetics and spatial pattern of phenotypic variation of Eristalis tenax across Europe

A study of population connectivity of the migratory insect species, such as dronefly Eristalis tenax (Diptera, Syrphidae), has an essential importance in understanding the relative influence of the evolutionary forces and environmental features that interact in the spatial distribution of molecular and morphological diversity. However, specific study aiming to understand spatial genetic structure of dronefly populations and its migratory potential is lacking. Hence, we studied a spatial pattern of genetic and phenotypic variation of seven European populations of E. tenax incorporating landscape genetic methods using allozyme data, wing size and shape and abdominal colour pattern. Based on the observed lack of genotypic structuring, we suggested that there has been sufficient long‐distance gene flow to effectively homogenize population structuring at a broader geographical scale. Wing shape similarity among populations and an overlap of abdominal colour variation showed no clear clustering related to geography, which is in congruence with genetic data. However, genetic (F_ST values) and phenotypic (wing size) data and landscape genetics indicated subdivision between the Balkan populations (four Serbian samples) and populations from Central (Germany and Switzerland) and Northern (Finland) Europe. These findings indicated a potential connection between the Central and Northern Europe supporting the Central European origin of the flies caught in Finland. Thus, by performing spatial analysis and combining genetic–morphological approach, we shed light on the movement pattern in complex landscapes and thus provided the necessary guidelines to a broad‐scale analysis of this widespread generalist pollinator.     

Recent population declines in Afro‐Palaearctic migratory birds: the influence of breeding and non‐breeding seasons

Aim

Recent, rapid population declines in many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird species have focussed attention on changing conditions within Africa. However, processes influencing population change can operate throughout the annual cycle and throughout migratory ranges. Here, we explore the evidence for impacts of breeding and non‐breeding conditions on population trends of British breeding birds of varying migratory status and wintering ecology.

Location

Great Britain (England & Scotland).

Methods

Within‐ and between‐species variation in population trends is quantified for 46 bird species with differing migration strategies.

Results

Between 1994 and 2007, rates of population change in Scotland and England differed significantly for 19 resident and 15 long‐distance migrant species, but were similar for 12 short‐distance migrant species. Of the six long‐distance migrant species that winter in the arid zone of Africa, five are increasing in abundance throughout Britain. In contrast, the seven species wintering in the humid zone of Africa are all declining in England, but five of these are increasing in Scotland. Consequently, populations of both arid and humid zone species are increasing significantly faster in Scotland than England, and only the English breeding populations of species wintering in the humid zone are declining.

Main conclusions

Population declines in long‐distance migrants, especially those wintering in the humid zone, but not residents or short‐distance migrants suggest an influence of non‐breeding season conditions on population trends. However, the consistently less favourable population trends in England than Scotland of long‐distance migrant and resident species strongly suggest that variation in the quality of breeding grounds is influencing recent population changes. The declines in humid zone species in England, but not Scotland, may result from poorer breeding conditions in England exacerbating the impacts of non‐breeding conditions or the costs associated with a longer migration, while better conditions in Scotland may be buffering these impacts.

     

Extreme genetic similarity does not predict non‐breeding distribution of two closely related warblers

Detailed knowledge of migratory connectivity can facilitate effective conservation of Neotropical migrants by helping biologists understand where and when populations may be most limited. We studied the migratory behavior and non‐breeding distribution of two closely related species of conservation concern, the Golden‐winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) and Blue‐winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera). Although both species have undergone dynamic range shifts and population changes attributed to habitat loss and social interactions promoting competition and hybridization, full life‐cycle conservation planning has been limited by a lack of information about their non‐breeding ecology. Because recent work has demonstrated that the two species are nearly identical genetically, we predicted that individuals from a single breeding population would have similar migratory timing and overwintering locations. In 2015, we placed light‐level geolocators on 25 males of both species and hybrids in an area of breeding sympatry at the Fort Drum Military Installation in Jefferson and Lewis counties, New York. Despite extreme genetic similarity, non‐breeding locations and duration of migration differed among genotypes. Golden‐winged Warblers (N = 2) overwintered > 1900 km southeast of the nearest Blue‐winged Warbler (N = 3) and spent nearly twice as many days in migration; hybrids (N = 2) had intermediate wintering distributions and migratory timing. Spring migration departure dates were staggered based on distance from the breeding area, and all birds arrived at the breeding site within 8 days of each other. Our results show that Golden‐winged Warblers and Blue‐winged Warblers in our study area retain species‐specific non‐breeding locations despite extreme genetic similarity, and suggest that non‐breeding locations and migratory timing vary along a genetic gradient. If the migratory period is limiting for these species, our results also suggest that Golden‐winged Warblers in our study population may be more vulnerable to population decline than Blue‐winged Warblers because they spend almost twice as many days migrating.     

Integrating stable isotopes,parasite, and ring‐reencounter data to quantify migratory connectivity—A case study with Barn Swallows breeding in Switzerland,Germany, Sweden,and Finland

Ecosystems around the world are connected by seasonal migration. The migrant animals themselves are influenced by migratory connectivity through effects on the individual and the population level. Measuring migratory connectivity is notoriously difficult due to the simple requirement of data conveying information about the nonbreeding distribution of many individuals from several breeding populations. Explicit integration of data derived from different methods increases the precision and the reliability of parameter estimates. We combine ring‐reencounter, stable isotope, and blood parasite data of Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica in a single integrated model to estimate migratory connectivity for three large scale breeding populations across a latitudinal gradient from Central Europe to Scandinavia. To this end, we integrated a non‐Markovian multistate mark‐recovery model for the ring‐reencounter data with normal and binomial mixture models for the stable isotope and parasite data. The integration of different data sources within a mark‐recapture modeling framework enables the most precise quantification of migratory connectivity on the given broad spatial scale. The results show that northern‐breeding populations and Southern Africa as well as southern‐breeding populations and Western–Central Africa are more strongly connected through Barn Swallow migration than central European breeding populations with any of the African wintering areas. The nonbreeding distribution of Barn Swallows from central European breeding populations seems to be a mixture of those populations breeding further north and south, indicating a migratory divide.     

Contrasting strategies for wing‐moult and pre‐migratory fuelling in western and eastern populations of Common Whitethroat Sylvia communis

Trade‐offs between moult and fuelling in migrant birds vary with migration distance and the environmental conditions they encounter. We compared wing moult and fuelling at the northern and southern ends of migration in two populations of adult Common Whitethroats Sylvia communis. The western population moults most remiges at the breeding grounds in Europe (e.g. Poland) and migrates 4000–5000 km to western Africa (e.g. Nigeria). The eastern population moults all remiges at the non‐breeding grounds and migrates 7000–10 000 km from western Asia (e.g. southwestern Siberia) to eastern and southern Africa. We tested the hypotheses that: (1) Whitethroats moult their wing feathers slowly in South Africa, where they face fewer time constraints than in Poland, and (2) fuelling is slower when it coincides with moulting (Poland, South Africa) than when it occurs alone (Siberia, Nigeria). We estimated moult timing of primaries, secondaries and tertials from moult records of Polish and South African Whitethroats ringed in 1987–2017 and determined fuelling patterns from the body mass of Whitethroats ringed in all four regions. The western population moulted wing feathers in Poland over 55 days (2 July–26 August) at a varying rate, up to 13 feathers simultaneously, but fuelled slowly until departure in August–mid‐September. In Nigeria, during the drier period of mid‐February–March they fuelled slowly, but the fuelling rate increased three‐fold in April–May after the rains before mid‐April–May departure. The eastern population did not moult in Siberia but fuelled three times faster before mid‐July–early August departure than did the western birds moulting in Poland. In South Africa, the Whitethroats moulted over 57 days (2 January–28 February) at a constant rate of up to nine feathers simultaneously and fuelled slowly from mid‐December until mid‐April–May departure. These results suggest the two populations use contrasting strategies to capitalize on food supplies before departure from breeding and non‐breeding grounds.     

Migration patterns of Hoopoe Upupa epops and Wryneck Jynx torquilla: an analysis of European ring recoveries

For many bird species, recovery of ringed individuals remains the best source of information about their migrations. In this study, we analyzed the recoveries of ringed European Hoopoe (Upupa epops) and the Eurasian Wryneck (Jynx torquilla) from 1914 to 2005 from all European ringing schemes. The aim was to define general migration directions and to make inferences about the winter quarters, knowing that hardly any recoveries are available from sub-Saharan Africa. For the autumn migration, there is evidence of a migratory divide for the Hoopoe in Central Europe, at approximately 10–12°E. Autumn migration directions of Wrynecks gradually change from SW to SE depending on the longitude (west to east) of the ringing place. In both species, only a few recoveries were available indicating spring migration directions, but they showed similar migration axes as for autumn migration, and hence no evidence for loop-migration. Due to a paucity of recoveries on the African continent, we can make only limited inferences about wintering grounds: extrapolating migration directions are only indicative of the longitude of the wintering area. The directions of autumn migration indicate a typical pattern observed in European long-distance migrants: west-European Hoopoes and Wrynecks are likely to winter in western Africa, while central- and east-European birds probably winter more in the east. Due to the migratory divide, for the Hoopoe, this phenomenon is more pronounced.     

The first record of subtropical insects (Thysanoptera) in central Europe: long‐distance transport of airborne thrips,applying three‐dimensional backward trajectories

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Potential impacts of climatic change on the breeding and non-breeding ranges and migration distance of European Sylvia warblers

Aim  To explore the potential impacts of climatic change on species with different migratory strategies using Sylvia warblers breeding in Europe as a ‘model’ species group. Location  Europe and Africa. Methods  Climate response surfaces and generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to model relationships between species recorded breeding and non‐breeding ranges and recent climate. Species potential future breeding and non‐breeding ranges were simulated for three scenarios of late 21st‐century climate. The simulated potential future and present ranges were compared in terms of their relative extent and overlap, as well as their location. The impact of any shifts in potential range location on migration distance were quantified. Results  Potential breeding ranges consistently showed a shift northwards, whereas potential non‐breeding ranges showed no consistent directional shift, even when trans‐Saharan migrants were considered separately from resident/short‐distance or partial migrants. Future potential range extent relative to simulated recent range extent varied considerably among species, although on average range extent increased. Overlap between future and recent simulated range was generally low, averaging < 36% for both breeding and non‐breeding ranges. Overlap was consistently less for range‐restricted than for widespread species. Migration distance increased generally, by about twice as much in the case of trans‐Saharan migrant species than for short‐distance migrants. In many cases potential future non‐breeding areas were simulated in regions far from the species present non‐breeding area, suggesting that new migration strategies and routes may need to be developed in response to climatic change. Main conclusions  Migratory species can be expected to suffer greater negative impacts from climatic change than species that are resident or undertake only short‐distance or partial migrations. Trans‐Saharan migrants face the greatest potential increases in migration distances, whereas range‐restricted species are expected to experience major population reductions because of the limited, or in some cases lack of, overlap between their present and potential future ranges.     

Colonization of Northern Europe by Zygaena filipendulae (Lepidoptera)

Northern and mountainous ice sheets have expanded and contracted many times due to ice ages. Consequently, temperate species have been confined to refugia during the glacial periods wherefrom they have recolonized warming northern habitats between ice ages. In this study, we compare the gene CYP405A2 between different populations of the common burnet moth Zygaena filipendulae from across the Western Palearctic region to illuminate the colonization history of this species. These data show two major clusters of Z. filipendulae populations possibly reflecting two different refugial populations during the last ice age. The two types of Z. filipendulae only co‐occur in Denmark, Sweden, and Scotland indicating that Northern Europe comprise the hybridization zone where individuals from two different refugia met after the last ice age. Bayesian phylogeographic and ecological clustering analyses show that one cluster probably derives from an Alpe Maritime refugium in Southern France with ancestral expansive tendencies to the British Isles in the west, touching Northern Europe up to Denmark and Sweden, and extending throughout Central Europe into the Balkans, the Peleponnes, and South East Europe. The second cluster encompasses East Anatolia as the source area, from where multiple independent dispersal events to Armenia, to the Alborz mountains in north‐western Iran, and to the Zagros mountains in western Iran are suggested. Consequently, the classical theory of refugia for European temperate species in the Iberian, Italian, and Balkan peninsulas does not fit with the data from Z. filipendulae populations, which instead support more Northerly, mountainous refugia.     

The pull of the Central Flyway? Veeries breeding in western Canada migrate using an ancestral eastern route

Understanding non‐breeding season movements and identifying wintering areas of different populations of migratory birds is important for establishing patterns of migratory connectivity over the annual cycle. We analyzed archival solar geolocation (N = 5) and global positioning data (N = 1) to investigate migration routes, stopover sites, and wintering areas of a western‐most breeding population of Veeries (Catharus fuscescens) in the Pemberton Valley, British Columbia, Canada. Geolocation data were analyzed using a Bayesian state‐space model to improve likely position estimates. We compared our results with those from a Veery population located ~250 km east across a mountain chain in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, and with an eastern population in Delaware, U.S.A. Migrating Veeries from the Pemberton Valley used an eastern trajectory through the Rocky Mountains to the Great Plains to join a central flyway during fall and spring migration, a route similar to that used by Veeries breeding in the Okanagan Valley. However, wintering destinations of Pemberton Valley birds were more varied, with inter‐individual wintering distances ~1000 km greater than birds from the Okanagan Valley population and ~500 km from the previously known winter range of Veeries. The observed eastern migration path likely follows an ancestral route that evolved following the most recent glacial retreat. Consistent with patterns observed from the Okanagan and Delaware populations, Veeries from the Pemberton Valley undertook an intra‐tropical migration on the wintering grounds, but this winter movement differed from those of previously studied populations. Such winter movements may thus be idiosyncratic or show coarse population associations. Intra‐wintering‐ground movements likely occur either in response to seasonal changes in habitat suitability or as a means of optimizing pre‐migratory fueling prior to long‐distance spring movements to North America.     

Small changes in timing of breeding among subarctic passerines over a 32‐year period

Many bird populations in temperate regions have advanced their timing of breeding in response to a warming climate in recent decades. However, long‐term trends in temperature differ geographically and between seasons, and so do responses of local breeding populations. Data on breeding bird phenology from subarctic and arctic passerine populations are scarce, and relatively little data has been recorded in open‐nesting species. We investigated the timing of breeding and its relationship to spring temperature of 14 mainly open‐nesting passerine species in subarctic Swedish Lapland over a period of 32 years (1984–2015). We estimated timing of breeding from the progress of post‐juvenile moult in mist‐netted birds, a new method exploring the fact that the progress of post‐juvenile moult correlates with age. Although there was a numerical tendency for earlier breeding in most species (on average ?0.09 days/year), changes were statistically significant in only three species (by ?0.16 to ?0.23 days/year). These figures are relatively low compared with what has been found in other long‐term studies but are similar to a few other studies in subarctic areas. Generally, annual hatching dates were negatively correlated with mean temperature in May. This correlation was stronger in long‐distance than in short‐distance migrants. Although annual temperatures at high northern latitudes have increased over recent decades, there was no long‐term increase in mean temperature in May over the study period at this subarctic site. This is probably the main reason why there were only small long‐term changes in hatching dates.