The evolution of warning signals as reliable indicators of prey defense

It is widely argued that defended prey have tended to evolve conspicuous traits because predators more readily learn to avoid defended prey when they are conspicuous. However, a rival theory proposes that defended prey have evolved such characters because it allows them to be distinguished from undefended prey. Here we investigated how the attributes of defended (unprofitable) and undefended (profitable) computer-generated prey species tended to evolve when they were subject to selection by foraging humans. When cryptic forms of defended and undefended species were similar in appearance but their conspicuous forms were not, defended prey became conspicuous while undefended prey remained cryptic. Indeed, in all of our experiments, defended prey invariably evolved any trait that enabled them to be distinguished from undefended prey, even if such traits were cryptic. When conspicuous mutants of defended prey were extremely rare, they frequently overcame their initial disadvantage by chance. When Batesian mimicry of defended species was possible, defended prey evolved unique traits or characteristics that would make undefended prey vulnerable. Overall, our work supports the contention that warning signals are selected for their reliability as indicators of defense rather than to capitalize on any inherent educational biases of predators.     

Do unprofitable prey evolve traits that profitable prey find difficult to exploit?

Prey that are unprofitable to attack (for example, those containing noxious chemicals) are often conspicuously patterned and move in a slower and more predictable manner than species lacking these defences. Contemporary theories suggest these traits have evolved as warning signals because they can facilitate both associative and discriminative avoidance learning in predators. However, it is unclear why these particular traits and not others have tended to evolve in unprofitable prey. Here we show using a signal detection model that unprofitable prey will evolve conspicuous colours and patterns partly because these characteristics cannot readily evolve in profitable prey without close mimicry. The stability of this signal is maintained through the costs of dishonesty in profitable prey. Indeed, unprofitable prey will sometimes evolve a conspicuous form to reduce mimetic parasitism, even in the unlikely event that this form can be more closely mimicked. This is one of the first mathematical models of the evolution of warning signals to allow for the possibility of mimicry, yet our analyses suggest it may offer a general explanation as to why warning signals take the form that they do. Warning signals and mimicry may therefore be more closely related than is currently supposed.     

Warning signals and predator-prey coevolution

Theories of the evolution of warning signals are typically expressed using analytic and computational models, most of which attribute aspects of predator psychology as the key factors facilitating the evolution of warning signals. Sherratt provides a novel and promising perspective with a model that considers the coevolution of predator and prey populations, showing how predators may develop a bias towards attacking cryptic prey in preference to conspicuous prey. Here, we replicate the model as an individual-based simulation and find, in accordance with Sherratt, that predators evolve a bias towards attacking cryptic prey. We then use a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the relative survivorships of cryptic and conspicuous prey and stress that, as it stands, the model does not predict the evolution or stability of warning signals. We extend the model by giving predators continuous attack strategies and by allowing the evolution of prey conspicuousness: results are robust to the first modification but, in all cases, cryptic prey always enjoy a higher survivorship than conspicuous prey. When conspicuousness is allowed to evolve, prey quickly evolve towards crypsis, even when runaway coevolution is enabled. Sherratt's approach is promising, but other aspects of predator psychology, besides their innate response, remain vital to our understanding of warning signals.     

Predator experience on cryptic prey affects the survival of conspicuous aposematic prey

Initially, aposematism, which is an unprofitable trait, e.g. noxiousness conspicuously advertised to predators, appears to be a paradox since conspicuousness should increase predation by naive predators. However, reluctance of predators for eating novel prey (e.g. neophobia) might balance the initial predation caused by inexperienced predators. We tested the novelty effects on initial predation and avoidance learning in two separate conspicuousness levels of aposematic prey by using a 'novel world' method. Half of the wild great tits (Parus major) were trained to eat cryptic prey prior to the introduction of an aposematic prey, which potentially creates a bias against the aposematic morph. Both prey types were equally novel for control birds and they should not have shown any biased reluctance for eating an aposematic prey. Knowledge of cryptic prey reduced the expected initial mortality of the conspicuous morph to a random level whereas control birds initially ate the conspicuous morph according to the visibility risk. Birds learned to avoid conspicuous prey in both treatments but knowledge of cryptic prey did not increase the rate of avoidance learning. Predators' knowledge of cryptic prey did not reduce the predation of the less conspicuous aposematic prey and additionally predators did not learn to avoid the less conspicuous prey. These results indicate that predator psychology, which was shown as reluctance for attacking novel conspicuous prey, might have been important in the evolution of aposematism.     

Aposematic coloration, luminance contrast, and the benefits of conspicuousness

Many organisms use warning, or aposematic, coloration to signaltheir unprofitability to potential predators. Aposematicallycolored prey are highly visually conspicuous. There is considerableempirical support that conspicuousness promotes the effectivenessof the aposematic signal. From these experiments, it is welldocumented that conspicuous, unprofitable prey are detectedsooner and aversion learned faster by the predator as comparedwith cryptic, unprofitable prey. Predators also retain memoryof the aversion longer when prey is conspicuous. The presentstudy focused on the elements of conspicuousness that conferthese benefits of aposematic coloration. Drawing on currentunderstanding of animal vision, we distinguish 2 features ofwarning coloration: high chromatic contrast and high brightness,or luminance, contrast. Previous investigations on aposematicsignal efficacy have focused mainly on the role of high chromaticcontrast between prey and background, whereas little researchhas investigated the role of high luminance contrast. Usingthe Chinese mantid as a model predator and gray-painted milkweedbugs as model prey, we found that increased prey luminance contrastincreased detection of prey, facilitated predator aversion learning,and increased predator memory retention of the aversive response.Our results suggest that the luminance contrast component ofaposematic coloration can be an effective warning signal betweenthe prey and predator. Thus, warning coloration can even evolveas an effective signal to color blind predators.     

Perspective: the evolution of warning coloration is not paradoxical

Animals that are brightly colored have intrigued scientists since the time of Darwin, because it seems surprising that prey should have evolved to be clearly visible to predators. Often this self-advertisement is explained by the prey being unprofitable in some way, with the conspicuous warning coloration helping to protect the prey because it signals to potential predators that the prey is unprofitable. However, such signals only work in this way once predators have learned to associate the conspicuous color with the unprofitability of the prey. The evolution of warning coloration is still widely considered to be a paradox, because it has traditionally been assumed that the very first brightly colored individuals would be at an immediate selective disadvantage because of their greater conspicuousness to predators that are naive to the meaning of the signal. As a result, it has been difficult to understand how a novel conspicuous color morph could ever avoid extinction for long enough for predators to become educated about the signal. Thus, the traditional view that the evolution of warning coloration is difficult to explain rests entirely on assumptions about the foraging behavior of predators. However, we review recent evidence from a range of studies of predator foraging decisions, which refute these established assumptions. These studies show that: (1) Many predators are so conservative in their food preferences that even very conspicuous novel prey morphs are not necessarily at a selective disadvantage. (2) The survival and spread of novel color morphs can be simulated in field and aviary experiments using real predators (birds) foraging on successive generations of artificial prey populations. This work demonstrates that the foraging preferences of predators can regularly (though not always) result in the increase to fixation of a novel morph appearing in a population of familiar-colored prey. Such fixation events occur even if both novel and familiar prey are fully palatable and despite the novel food being much more conspicuous than the familiar prey. These studies therefore provide strong empirical evidence that conspicuous coloration can evolve readily, and repeatedly, as a result of the conservative foraging decisions of predators.     

Aposematism: what should our starting point be?

The evolution of aposematism is considered to be a major evolutionary problem because if new aposematic forms emerged in defended cryptic populations, they would face the dual problems of rarity and conspicuousness. We argue that this commonly assumed starting point might not have wide validity. We describe a novel evolutionary computer model in which prey evolve secondary defences and become conspicuous by moving widely over a visually heterogeneous habitat. Unless crypsis imposes high opportunity costs (for instance, preventing prey from efficient foraging, thermoregulation and communication), costly secondary defences are not predicted to evolve at all. However, when crypsis imposes opportunity costs, prey evolve secondary defences that facilitate raised behavioural conspicuousness as prey exploit opportunities within their environment. Optimal levels of secondary defence and of behavioural conspicuousness increase with population sizes and the costs imposed by crypsis. When prey are already conspicuous by virtue of their behaviours, the evolution of aposematic appearances (bright coloration, etc.) is much easier to explain because aposematic traits add little further costs of conspicuousness, but can bring large benefits.     

Pyrazine odour makes visually conspicuous prey aversive

Unpalatable insects frequently adopt multimodal signals to ward off predators, incorporating sounds and odours into their colourful displays. Pyrazine is an odour commonly used in insect warning displays, and has previously been shown to elicit unlearned biases against common warning colours, e.g. yellow and red in naive predators. We designed two experiments to test for similar effects of pyrazine on the conspicuousness of prey, perhaps the most ubiquitous aspect of aposematic coloration. In the first experiment, we offered predators (Gallus gallus domesticus) a choice between conspicuous crumbs and cryptic crumbs in the presence or absence of pyrazine. In the second experiment, we manipulated the birds' experience of conspicuous prey during an initial training phase. Only in the presence of pyrazine did birds show a bias against conspicuously coloured food, and this occurred whether or not they had previously experienced food that contrasted with the background. This emergent behaviour relied upon the visual and odorous signal components being presented together. These unlearned, yet hidden, responses against conspicuousness demonstrate that there are initial benefits to prey being conspicuous when the multimodal nature of warning signals is accounted for.     

The evolution of locomotory behavior in profitable and unprofitable simulated prey

Prey that are unprofitable to attack (for example, those containing noxious chemicals) frequently exhibit slower and more predicable movement than species that lack these defenses. Possible explanations for the phenomenon include a lack of selection pressure on unprofitable prey to avoid predators and active selection on unprofitable prey to advertise their noxiousness. We explicitly tested these and other hypotheses using a novel artificial world in which the locomotory characteristics (step size, waiting time, and angular direction) of artificial profitable and unprofitable computer-generated prey were subject to continued selection by humans over a number of generations. Unprofitable prey evolved significantly slower movement behavior than profitable prey when they were readily recognized as unprofitable, and also when they frequently survived predatory attacks. This difference arose primarily as a consequence of more intense selection on profitable prey to avoid capture. When unprofitable prey were very similar (but not identical) in morphological appearance to profitable prey, unprofitable prey evolved particularly slow movement behavior, presumably because when they were slow-moving they could be more readily recognized as being unprofitable. When unprofitable prey were constrained to move slowly, a morphologically identical profitable prey species evolved locomotor mimicry only when it had no more effective means of avoiding predation. Overall, our results provide some of the first empirical support for a number of earlier hypotheses for differences in movement between unprofitable and profitable prey and demonstrate that locomotor mimicry is not an inevitable outcome of selection even in morphologically similar prey.     

Prey selection by wild birds can allow novel and conspicuous colour morphs to spread in prey populations

Conspicuous warning coloration helps to protect prey because it signals to potential predators that the prey is unprofitable. However, such signals only work once predators have come to associate the conspicuous colour with the unprofitability of the prey. The evolution of warning coloration is generally considered to be paradoxical, because it has traditionally been assumed that the first brightly coloured individuals would be at an immediate selective disadvantage because of their greater conspicuousness to predators that are naïve to the meaning of the signal. As a result, it has been difficult to understand how a novel conspicuous colour morph could ever avoid rapid extinction, and instead survive and spread in the population until predators have become educated about the signal. In the present study, we experimentally simulated the appearance of a single novel coloured mutant in small populations (20 individuals) of palatable artificial pastry "prey". The colour morph frequencies in each "generation" of prey (presented on successive days of a trial) were determined by the relative survival of the previous generation under predation by free-living birds. We found that the novel colour morphs regularly persisted and increased from a starting frequency of 1/20 to reach fixation (100%), despite being fully palatable, even when the novel morph was much more conspicuous against the background than the familiar morph. This was true for both green (not normally considered a warning colour) and red (a classic warning colour) novel morphs. Novel colours reached fixation significantly faster than could be accounted for by random drift, indicating differential predation in relation to prey colour by the birds. Our experiments show that the immediate demise of a fully palatable new prey morph is not an inevitable outcome of predator behaviour, because even very conspicuous prey can gain protection from conservative foragers, simply by being novel.     

The coevolution of warning signals

It has long been recognized that defended prey tend to be conspicuous. Current theories suggest that the association ('aposematism') has arisen because predators more readily learn to avoid attacking defended phenotypes when they are conspicuous. In this paper, I consider why such psychology has evolved. In particular, I argue that aposematism may have evolved not because of an independent and pre-existing receiver bias, but because the conspicuousness of a prey item provides a reliable indicator of its likelihood of being defended. To develop my case I consider how warning signals might coevolve in a system containing a number of predators, whose foraging behaviour is also subject to selection. In these cases, models readily show that the greater the conspicuousness of a novel prey item, the more likely that it has been encountered by other predators and survived. As a consequence, naive predators should be less likely to attack highly conspicuous novel prey on encounter, or at least more inclined to attack them cautiously. This adaptive predator behaviour will greatly facilitate the spread of aposematic phenotypes from extreme rarity, which in turn will enhance selection for forms of predator behaviour under which aposematism will coevolve even more readily.     

Conspicuous visual signals do not coevolve with increased body size in marine sea slugs

Many taxa use conspicuous colouration to attract mates, signal chemical defences (aposematism) or for thermoregulation. Conspicuousness is a key feature of aposematic signals, and experimental evidence suggests that predators avoid conspicuous prey more readily when they exhibit larger body size and/or pattern elements. Aposematic prey species may therefore evolve a larger body size due to predatory selection pressures, or alternatively, larger prey species may be more likely to evolve aposematic colouration. Therefore, a positive correlation between conspicuousness and body size should exist. Here, we investigated whether there was a phylogenetic correlation between the conspicuousness of animal patterns and body size using an intriguing, understudied model system to examine questions on the evolution of animal signals, namely nudibranchs (opisthobranch molluscs). We also used new ways to compare animal patterns quantitatively with their background habitat in terms of intensity variance and spatial frequency power spectra. In studies of aposematism, conspicuousness is usually quantified using the spectral contrast of animal colour patches against its background; however, other components of visual signals, such as pattern, luminance and spectral sensitivities of potential observers, are largely ignored. Contrary to our prediction, we found that the conspicuousness of body patterns in over 70 nudibranch species decreased as body size increased, indicating that crypsis was not limited to a smaller body size. Therefore, alternative selective pressures on body size and development of colour patterns, other than those inflicted by visual hunting predators, may act more strongly on the evolution of aposematism in nudibranch molluscs.     

Variation in predator species abundance can cause variable selection pressure on warning signaling prey

Predation pressure is expected to drive visual warning signals to evolve toward conspicuousness. However, coloration of defended species varies tremendously and can at certain instances be considered as more camouflaged rather than conspicuous. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the variation in signal conspicuousness can be caused by variation (within or between species) in predators' willingness to attack defended prey or by the broadness of the predators' signal generalization. If some of the predator species are capable of coping with the secondary defenses of their prey, selection can favor reduced prey signal conspicuousness via reduced detectability or recognition. In this study, we combine data collected during three large-scale field experiments to assess whether variation in avian predator species (red kite, black kite, common buzzard, short-toed eagle, and booted eagle) affects the predation pressure on warningly and non-warningly colored artificial snakes. Predation pressure varied among locations and interestingly, if common buzzards were abundant, there were disadvantages to snakes possessing warning signaling. Our results indicate that predator community can have important consequences on the evolution of warning signals. Predators that ignore the warning signal and defense can be the key for the maintenance of variation in warning signal architecture and maintenance of inconspicuous signaling.     

Evolutionarily stable defence and signalling of that defence

We examine the evolution and maintenance of defence and conspicuousness in prey species using a game theoretic model. In contrast to previous works, predators can raise as well as lower their attack probabilities as a consequence of encountering moderately defended prey. Our model predicts four distinct possibilities for evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) featuring maximum crypsis. Namely that such a solution can exist with (1) zero toxicity, (2) a non-zero but non-aversive level of toxicity, (3) a high, aversive level of toxicity or (4) that no such maximally cryptic solution exists. Maximally cryptic prey may still invest in toxins, because of the increased chance of surviving an attack (should they be discovered) that comes from having toxins. The toxin load of maximally cryptic prey may be sufficiently strong that the predators will find them aversive, and seek to avoid similar looking prey in future. However, this aversiveness does not always necessarily trigger aposematic signalling, and highly toxic prey can still be maximally cryptic, because the increased initial rate of attack from becoming more conspicuous is not necessarily always compensated for by increased avoidance of aversive prey by predators. In other circumstances, the optimal toxin load may be insufficient to generate aversion but still be non-zero (because it increases survival), and in yet other circumstances, it is optimal to make no investment in toxins at all. The model also predicts ESSs where the prey are highly defended and aversive and where this defence is advertised at a cost of increased conspicuousness to predators. In many circumstances there is an infinite array of these aposematic ESSs, where the precise appearance is unimportant as long as it is highly visible and shared by all members of the population. Yet another class of solutions is possible where there is strong between-individual variation in appearance between conspicuous, poorly defended prey.     

A role for phenotypic plasticity in the evolution of aposematism

The evolution of warning coloration (aposematism) has been difficult to explain because rare conspicuous mutants should suffer a higher cost of discovery by predators relative to the cryptic majority, while at frequencies too low to facilitate predator aversion learning. Traditional models for the evolution of aposematism have assumed conspicuous prey phenotypes to be genetically determined and constitutive. By contrast, we have recently come to understand that warning coloration can be environmentally determined and mediated by local prey density, thereby reducing the initial costs of conspicuousness. The expression of density-dependent colour polyphenism is widespread among the insects and may provide an alternative pathway for the evolution of constitutive aposematic phenotypes in unpalatable prey by providing a protected intermediate stage. If density-dependent aposematism can function as an adaptive intermediate stage for the evolution of constitutive aposematic phenotypes, differential reaction norm evolution is predicted among related palatable and unpalatable prey populations. Here, I present empirical evidence that indicates that (i) the expression of density-dependent colour polyphenism has differentially evolved between palatable and unpalatable populations of the grasshopper Schistocerca emarginata (= lineata) (Orthoptera: Acrididae), and (ii) variation in plasticity between these populations is commensurate with the expected costs of conspicuousness.     

Conditions for the spread of conspicuous warning signals: a numerical model with novel insights

The initial evolution of conspicuous warning signals presents an evolutionary problem because selection against rare conspicuous signals is presumed to be strong, and new signals are rare when they first arise. Several possible solutions have been offered to solve this apparent evolutionary paradox, but disagreement persists over the plausibility of some of the proposed mechanisms. In this paper, we construct a deterministic numerical simulation model that allows us to derive the strength of selection on novel warning signals in a wide range of biologically relevant situations. We study the effects of predator psychology (learning, rate of mistaken attacks, and neophobia) on selection. We also study the how prey escape, predation intensity, number of predators, and abundance of different prey types affects selection. The model provides several important results. Selection on novel warning signals is number rather than frequency dependent. In most cases, there exists a threshold number of aposematic individuals below which aposematism is selected against and above which aposematism is selected for. Signal conspicuousness (which increases detection rate) and distinctiveness (which allows predator to distinguish defended from nondefended prey) have opposing effects on evolution of warning signals. A more conspicuous warning signal cannot evolve unless it makes the prey more distinctive from palatable prey, reducing mistaken attacks by predators. A novel warning signal that is learned quickly can spread from lower abundance more easily than a signal that is learned more slowly. However, the relative rate at which the resident signal and the novel signal are learned is irrelevant for the spread of the novel signal. Long-lasting neophobia can facilitate the spread of novel warning signals. Individual selection via the ability of defended prey to escape from predator is not likely to facilitate evolution of conspicuous warning signals if both the resident (cryptic) morph and the novel morph have the same escape probability. Predation intensity (defined as the proportion of palatable prey eaten by the predator) has a strong effect on selection. More intense predation results in strong selection against rare signals, but also strong selective advantage to common signals. The threshold number of aposematic individuals is lower when predation is intense. Thus, the evolution of warning signals may be more likely in environments where predation is intense. The effect of numbers of predators depends on whether predation intensity also changes. When predation intensity is constant, increasing numbers of predators raises the threshold number of aposematic individuals, and thus makes evolution of aposematism more difficult. If predation intensity increases in parallel with number of predators, the threshold number of aposematic individuals does not change much, but selection becomes more intense on both sides of the threshold.     

Mixed-phenotype grouping: the interaction between oddity and crypsis

Aggregations of different-looking animals are frequently seen in nature, despite well-documented selection pressures on individuals to maintain phenotypically homogenous groups. Two well-known theories, the ‘confusion effect’ (reduced ability of a predator to accurately target an individual in a group) and the ‘oddity effect’ (preferential targeting of phenotypically distinct, ‘odd’, individuals) act together to predict the evolution of behaviours in prey that lead to groups of animals that are homogeneous in appearance. In contrast, a recently proposed mechanism suggests that mixed groups could be maintained if one species in a mixed group is more conspicuous against the habitat than the other, as confusion effects generated by the conspicuous species impede predator targeting of the cryptic species; thus, cryptic species benefit from association with conspicuous ones. We test these contrasting predictions from the perspective of both predators and prey, and show that cryptic individual Daphnia are at reduced risk of predation from three-spine sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus when in mixed-phenotype groups, a risk that is reduced further as the number of conspicuous individuals increases, supporting the hypothesis for the evolution of mixed groups. In contrast, while the preference for associating with colour-matched conspecifics by mollies (Poecilia sphenops) was reduced when they were cryptic, we found no evidence for active association with conspicuous conspecifics. We conclude that prey animals must balance the relative risks of oddity and conspicuousness in their social decisions, and that this could potentially lead to the evolution of mixed-phenotype grouping as a response to predation risk alone.     

Predator mixes and the conspicuousness of aposematic signals

Conspicuous warning signals of unprofitable prey are a defense against visually hunting predators. They work because predators learn to associate unprofitability with bright coloration and because strong signals are detectable and memorable. However, many species that can be considered defended are not very conspicuous; they have weak warning signals. This phenomenon has previously been ignored in models and experiments. In addition, there is significant within- and among-species variation among predators in their search behavior, in their visual, cognitive, and learning abilities, and in their resistance to defenses. In this article we explore the effects of variable predators on models that combine positive frequency-dependent, frequency-independent, and negative frequency-dependent predation and show that weak signaling of aposematic species can evolve if predators vary in their tendency to attack defended prey.     

Honest signaling and the uses of prey coloration

Abstract Although signal reliability is of fundamental importance to the understanding of animal communication, the extent of signal honesty in relation to antipredator warning signals has received relatively little attention. A recent theoretical model that assumed a physiological linkage between pigmentation and toxicity suggested that (aposematic) warning signals may often be reliable, in the sense that brightness and toxicity are positively correlated within prey populations. Two shortcomings of the model were (1) the requirement among predators for an innate aversion to brightly colored prey and (2) the assumption that prey can generate only bright coloration and not cryptic coloration. We evaluated the generality of predictions of reliable signaling when these shortcomings were removed. Without innate avoidance of bright prey, we found a positive brightness-toxin correlation when conspicuous prey coloration provided an additional fitness benefit unrelated to predation. Initially, this correlation could evolve for reasons unrelated to prey signaling; hence, aposematism might represent a striking example of exaptation. Given a choice between using pigmentation for bright or for cryptic coloration, crypsis was favored only in conditions of very low or very high resource levels. In the latter case, toxicity correlated positively with degree of cryptic coloration. Predictions of toxin-signal correlation appear robust, but we can identify interesting conditions in which signal reliability is not predicted.