生命表法在古人口学中的应用误区

生命表是古人口学发展早期的常用方法,但历来受到许多质疑。其问题主要有：死亡率误区和队列假设的影响,静止人口假设或稳定人口假设问题,模型生命表存在的问题,人骨年龄估计问题和抽样缺陷问题。生命表的意义主要在于其可以直观展示古人口的死亡过程和计算古人口的预期寿命。目前在古人口学中,生命表已逐渐趋于淘汰,而以风险模型为代表的其他方法成为了研究古人口死亡模式的新方法。     

江苏兴化蒋庄遗址良渚文化墓地的古人口学

古人口学研究包含对人口学静态参数和动态参数的研究,本文对江苏兴化蒋庄遗址良渚文化墓地进行了性别、年龄结构的分析和生育水平的估计,后者采用的是用n₃₀₊/n₅₊估算粗出生率的方法。蒋庄人口的性别比是105,属于正常范围。模型拟合研究发现蒋庄人口的死亡年龄结构接近正态分布,这种现象可能与婴幼儿统计漏查、成人年龄鉴定中存在的问题和对“老年”标准的定义有关。通过估算粗出生率并将蒋庄样本和其他新石器时代人骨样本进行粗出生率的对比,发现蒋庄人口的生育水平较高,可能与其环境优渥、文明进步有关。研究还表明,对新方法的尝试和对人骨样本代表性的重视是推动古人口学进步的关键。     

地形校正对森林生物量遥感估测的影响

基于常用的4种地形校正模型（Cosine模型、C模型、C+SCS模型、Minnaert模型）,以IDL语言为二次开发平台,对黑龙江省帽儿山地区2007年7月21日TM图像进行地形校正,从视觉差异、图像的定量统计特征两方面评价了4种地形校正模型的修正效果,并比较了地形校正后几种遥感因子与森林生物量的相关性,建立了森林生物量的遥感反演模型,分析了不同地形校正模型对森林生物量反演的影响.结果表明：由于K-T变换采用线性变换方式,地形校正后遥感数据与森林生物量的相关性出现了较大波动,应根据地表信息调整变换参数,因此该变换方式不适合与地形校正结合使用;植被指数的信息量在地形校正后明显提高,其与森林生物量的相关性显著增强;4种地形校正模型中,Cosine校正过度,不宜采用,C模型和C+SCS模型通过引入半经验参数,较好地消除了地形效应,Minnaert模型校正后降低了森林生物量估测的误差,有效地提高了遥感反演模型的精度.     

动态适应性生态经济区划模型及其应用

提高城市生态经济区划的精确性和动态性,对科学指导城市化发展具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。利用夜间灯光数据与人口密度建立线性模型,探索了以往用行政区域为最小统计单元数据的模拟细化问题;然后通过引入可变参数构建了动态适应性生态经济区划模型,在增强模型动态适应性的同时,将一级区划结果统一划分为生态管控区域、生态优先区域、优化开发区域和重点开发区域4个区域。以广州市增城区为典型案例,通过改进的动态适应性生态经济区划模型,运用GIS将增城区在两种情景下进行了模拟和对比,并提出了政策建议。区划结果符合当地发展特征,也为其他城市与区域的生态经济区划研究提供了科学方法。     

基于6S模型的FY-3A/MERSI可见光到近红外波段大气校正

基于山西省太原市及其周边区域气象台站观测数据,为6S模型提供所需的大气状态参数,对晴空状况下FY-3A/MERSI可见光到近红外波段（250 m分辨率）数据进行大气校正.结果表明：大气校正后,MERSI可见光到近红外波段数据范围加宽、反射率数据普遍增大,波峰高移,各波段反射率的分布更趋平滑;校正后,反映植被状况的归一化植被指数的值域比校正前增大、峰值变高,更接近实际情况;校正后彩色合成图显现出更丰富的地物信息,亮度增大,层次变强,对比度增强,地物信息更接近实际.     

离子阱串联质谱仪质荷比测量误差统计分析

离子阱串联质谱仪是蛋白质组研究中一种高通量,高灵敏度的分析仪器。目前对影响离子阱质谱仪质荷比测量误差的因素和数据产出后系统误差的校正方法还没有系统的分析。利用两批蛋白质标准品的数据和统计方法分析了离子阱质谱仪质荷比测量误差的分布规律,对测量的质荷比和信号强度对测量误差的影响进行了分析。在此基础上,提出了一种对质谱数据进行系统误差再校正的方法和一种根据信号强度确定误差容限的模型。     

基于Penman-Monteith模型的两个蒸散模型在夏玉米农田的参数修正及性能评价

利用涡度相关系统和小气象系统对2013—2015年夏玉米生长季的蒸散量和气象数据进行实时观测,基于观测数据对以Penman-Monteith模型为基础的FAO-PM模型和KP-PM模型进行分析:首先利用2013和2014年数据对两个模型中的关键参数进行校正,其次利用两个模型对2015年夏玉米农田的日蒸散量进行计算,并与测量值对比,说明两个模型在夏玉米农田的适用性;最后采用分阶段法对KP-PM模型中的经验系数进行修正.结果表明: FAO-PM模型对2015年夏玉米农田日蒸散量的计算值更加接近测量值;利用分阶段法对KP-PM模型进行修正后,模型对日蒸散量的计算效果有了很大提高,且计算值比FAO-PM模型更接近测量值.模型中关键系数与气象条件之间有很大关系,因此利用模型进行蒸散预测时,必须先对模型进行参数校正.该研究可为其他研究人员利用模型估算蒸散量提供方法上的参考.     

基于校正的CASA模型NPP遥感估算及分析——以河西走廊为例

利用CASA模型估算植被净初级生产力(NPP)应用广泛,但其精度仍然有待提高。基于地理因子回归方法(AMMRR)和地表水分指数(LSWI)对CASA模型的两个关键参数:温度胁迫系数和水分胁迫系数进行校正,再估算NPP并分析了校正对植被NPP及各因子与NPP关系的影响。研究表明:(1)校正能有效提高CASA模型的估算精度,校正后NPP总量为34.29 TgC/a,原CASA模型高估了0.23 TgC/a。(2)研究不仅可以校正地形对NPP的影响,还可以校正平坦地形下人类活动区NPP的影响;在高海拔、地形起伏较大的区域以及人类活动地区,校正对NPP估算影响较大,绿洲区原模型存在高估。(3)校正对生长季的影响大于非生长季;坡度对NPP影响较大,坡度越大原模型高估越多;校正前高估了阳坡NPP,低估了阴坡NPP。     

基于改进的模糊C均值聚类的肺结节计算机辅助诊断算法研究

目的:研究基于改进的模糊C均值聚类计算机辅助诊断算法对肺结节的诊断价值,降低对肺结节的漏诊率,提高病人的生存率.方法:基于模糊C均值聚类的算法,利用直方图统计特性对数据进行优化,在此基础上利用像素的邻域特性,将数据样本对各聚类中心约束条件为1,改变为隶属度之和为样本总数.用改进的FCM对肺实质图像进行分割,将分割后的图像应用区域标记算法去除小面积区域.利用肺结节的关键特征,提取可疑区域.结果:运用改进算法后,区域分割效果更好.仿真结果证明算法很好的将"线"形或分枝状结构的血管去除.结论:改进的FCM有很好的实时性和对噪声的鲁棒性,分离血管后,将可疑区域在原图标记出来,使医生的工作更加明确.     

自我重复取样技术与多项式定理在年龄-龄期两性生命表研究中的应用

年龄-龄期两性生命表(age-stage, two-sex life table)简称两性生命表,是种群生态学研究与害虫治理中常用的重要理论与分析工具。根据两性生命表理论而设计的方便用户的软件TWOSEX-MSChart近年来被越来越多国内外学者用于昆虫种群研究的数据分析。两性生命表软件的分析功能是由许多的统计技术与计算机模拟方法作为数据分析的支撑,其中自我重复取样(bootstrap)是其重要技术之一。本文详述了bootstrap技术的基本原理、方法、优缺点及其在两性生命表分析中的应用,并介绍了其理论基础多项式定理(multinomial theorem)在生命表研究中的应用。与常用统计方法相比,bootstrap不需要数据分布假设就可以对数据总体的分布特性进行统计和推断。在两性生命表分析中,bootstrap不仅可以估算种群参数或一般统计值的方差和标准误,同时利用paired bootstrap test还可以比较不同处理间的差异,准确显示种群的变异性。利用相同的自我重复取样样本(same bootstrap samples)可以正确计算昆虫的孵化率与不同繁殖型对种群参数的贡献,并可连接天敌的生命表与捕食率分析,以正确分析昆虫种群的繁殖力或天敌种群的捕食潜能等。此外,本文介绍了bootstrap数学理论基础的多项式定理,其在两性生命表研究中的应用进一步证明了bootstrap重复取样技术能得到较稳定和可靠的总体参数估计,并分析了生命表研究中考虑无效bootstrap样本的重要性。近年来,关于两性生命表及bootstrap的应用相关研究较多,但是关于bootstrap技术的原理及方法很少报道。本文将有助于从事昆虫学和生态学的研究人员理解bootstrap技术和多项式定理的基本理论与原理及其在两性生命表分析中的应用,以更好地将其运用于相关科研工作中。     

海岱地区大汶口文化时期人口死亡年龄的统计分布特征

人口死亡年龄是揭示一个族群健康状况和社会经济条件的重要指标。本文根据海岱地区大汶口文化时期九个墓地人骨遗存的发掘报告,运用定量统计的方法检验了人口死亡年龄分布特征。发现该区大汶口文化时期人口的死亡年龄分布近似服从正态分布。最后探讨了造成人口低死亡年龄的可能原因,并给出了这一概率分布的数学意义以及在史前人口学中的应用前景。     

Mathematical hazard models of mortality: an alternative to model life tables

A five-parameter competing hazard model of the age pattern of mortality is described, and methods of fitting it to survivorship, death rate, and age structure data are developed and presented. The methods are then applied to published life table and census data to construct life tables for a Late Woodland population, a Christian period Nubian population, and the Yanomama. The advantage of this approach over the use of model life tables is that the hazard model facilitates life-table construction without imposing a particular age pattern of mortality on the data. This development makes it possible to use anthropological data to extend the study of human variation in mortality patterns to small populations.     

Demographic window to aging in the wild: constructing life tables and estimating survival functions from marked individuals of unknown age

Summary We address the problem of establishing a survival schedule for wild populations. A demographic key identity is established, leading to a method whereby age-specific survival and mortality can be deduced from a marked cohort life table established for individuals that are randomly sampled at unknown age and marked, with subsequent recording of time-to-death. This identity permits the construction of life tables from data where the birth date of subjects is unknown. An analogous key identity is established for the continuous case in which the survival schedule of the wild population is related to the density of the survival distribution in the marked cohort. These identities are explored for both life tables and continuous lifetime data. For the continuous case, they are implemented with statistical methods using non-parametric density estimation methods to obtain flexible estimates for the unknown survival distribution of the wild population. The analytical model provided here serves as a starting point to develop more complex models for residual demography, i.e. models for estimating survival of wild populations in which age-at-entry is unknown and using remaining information in randomly encountered individuals. This is a first step towards a broad new concept of 'expressed demographic information content of marked or captured individuals'.     

Deconstructing death in paleodemography

In 1992 in this Journal (Konigsberg and Frankenberg [1992] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 89:235-256), we wrote about the use of maximum likelihood methods for the "estimation of age structure in anthropological demography." More specifically, we presented a particular method (the "iterated age-length key") from the fisheries literature and suggested that the method could be used in human and primate demography and paleodemography as well. In our paper (section titled "Some Future Directions"), we spelled out two broad areas that we expected to see develop over the ensuing years. First, we felt that the use of explicit likelihood methods would open up interest in basic estimation issues, such as the calculation of standard errors for demographic estimates and the formulation of tests for whether samples differed in their demographic structure. Second, we felt that the time was ripe for hazards analyses that would incorporate the uncertainty in estimation that follows from using age "indicators" rather than known ages. While some of these developments have occurred during the last decade, few have been reported in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology. In this paper we resolve some issues from our 1992 paper, and attempt to redress this deficit in the literature by reviewing some recent developments in paleodemography over the past decade.     

A general theory of life table construction and a precise abridged life table method

"In this paper we lay the foundation of life table construction by unifying the existing life table methods. We also present a new method of constructing current (period) abridged life tables.... The development includes (1) a careful formulation and computation of age-specific death rates, (2) derivation of a new set of formulas for computing the survivorship function from the observed age-specific death rates and populations, (3) estimation of the main life table functions by spline interpolation, integration and differentiation, and (4) use of a quadratic and a Gompertz function to close the life table.... The method is illustrated with construction of abridged life tables using Canadian data."     

Postreproductive lifespans are rare in mammals

A species has a post‐reproductive stage if, like humans, a female entering the adult population can expect to live a substantial proportion of their life after their last reproductive event. However, it is conceptually and statistically challenging to distinguish these true post‐reproductive stages from the usual processes of senescence, which can result in females occasionally surviving past their last reproductive event. Hence, despite considerable interest, the taxonomic prevalence of post‐reproductive stages remains unclear and debated. In this study we use life tables constructed from published data on wild populations of mammals, and statistical measures of post‐reproductive lifespans, to distinguish true post‐reproductive stages from artefacts of senescence and demography in 52 species. We find post‐reproductive stages are rare in mammals and are limited to humans and a few species of toothed whales. By resolving this long‐standing debate, we hope to provide clarity for researchers in the field of evolutionary biology and a solid foundation for further studies investigating the evolution and adaptive significance of this unusual life history trait.     

Testing the value of skeletal samples in demographic research: a comparison with vital registration samples

Critics of paleodemography have suggested that the science is so fraught with error that its demise must be close at hand. Among the problems suggested as unsolvable are representativeness of skeletal samples and inaccuray of skeletal aging techniques. A historical skeletal sample with supportive vital registration might afford the opportunity to test the validity of such criticism or at least to examine the extent of the above problems. In 1984, a skeletal sample of 296 individuals was excavated from a 19th century American poorhouse cemetery. Age at death was determined by macroscopic multivariate examination. Mortality records of 247 individuals who died during four years of the poorhouse's operation provide data for demographic comparisons with the skeletal sample. A comparison of life tables generated from each sample demostrates that there are no significant differences in the age at death structure, life expectancy (at birth: 30.7 in the mortality records and 32.6 from the skeletal sample), or survivorship between the two samples. Skeletal aging techniques can, therefore, provide a demographic picture that is similar in accuracy to that presented by vital registration records.     

应用Jackknife技术统计昆虫生命表参数变异的VFP实现

研究昆虫种群的动态,掌握种群增长的潜力是非常重要的。应用生殖力生命表可进行种群增长动态的估计,常用5个主要参数来描述净增殖率、内禀增长率、世代平均周期、种群倍增时间和周限增长率,Jackknife技术可以用来估计内禀增长率等参数的变异程度,利用VFP编程实现了生命表参数变异程度的计算。     

武夷山米槠种群结构及谱分析

在武夷山自然保护区对米槠种群数量动态进行了系统研究,编制了静态生命表,分析了存活曲线和死亡曲线,同时应用谱分析方法分析种群数量的动态变化。结果表明,武夷山自然保护区米槠种群基本属于进展型或稳定型,幼龄级个体多,中老龄级个体少。不同海拔的种群密度存在差异,其中C种群密度最大;静态生命表显示,种群在Ⅰ、Ⅱ径级时死亡率较高,随着年龄增加,死亡率逐渐降低,但到了Ⅳ、Ⅴ径级,由于生理衰老死亡率又上升;种群期望寿命在Ⅰ、Ⅱ径级较高,随着年龄增加,期望寿命逐渐下降;不同海拔的米槠种群的存活曲线均接近于Deevey Ⅲ 型。米槠种群自然更新过程存在明显的周期。     

Assessment of the natural control of Neoleucinodes elegantalis in tomato cultivation using ecological life tables

Life table studies allow for a better understanding of mortality factors against insect pests. It assesses each mortality factor and its parameters in population suppression. Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) is one of the major pests of solanaceous crops in South America. The background information provided by life table studies might be used for developing management strategies for controlling N. elegantalis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify and quantify the mortality factors of N. elegantalis in tomato cultivation by using life tables. The results were obtained from 64 ecological life tables. The mortality factors for eggs, larvae and pupae were due to rain, fruit drop, predation, parasitism and unviability caused by physiological disorder and diseases. The percentage of total death for eggs, larvae and pupae were 64.2%, 24.9% and 5.93%, respectively. The highest rates of mortality were caused by predation and parasitism. Thus, mortality of N. elegantalis caused by natural enemies might be used as a basis for determining which methods are better for controlling N. elegantalis while having the lowest possible impact on its natural enemies.