共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Anne Y. Polyakov William D. Tietje Arjun Srivathsa Virginie Rolland James E. Hines Madan K. Oli 《Ecology and evolution》2021,11(18):12529
In semi‐arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom‐up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource‐restricted environments. Using a 21‐year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi‐arid oak woodland of coastal‐central California. We applied Pradel''s temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal‐central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate. 相似文献
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Snakes represent a sizable fraction of vertebrate biodiversity, but until recently, data on their demography have been sparse. Consequently, generalizations regarding patterns of variation are weak and the potential for population projections is limited. We address this information gap through an analysis of spatial and temporal variation in demography (population size, annual survival, and realized population growth) of the Lake Erie Watersnake, Nerodia sipedon insularum, and a review of snake survival more generally. Our study spans a period during which the Lake Erie Watersnake was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, recovered, and was delisted. We collected capture–mark–recapture data at 14 study sites over 20 years, accruing 20,000 captures of 13,800 individually marked adults. Lake Erie Watersnakes achieve extraordinary abundance, averaging 520 adults per km of shoreline (ca. 260 adult per ha) at our study sites (range = 160–1,600 adults per km; ca. 80–800 adults per ha) and surpassing population recovery and postdelisting monitoring criteria. Annual survival averages 0.68 among adult females and 0.76 among adult males, varies among sites, and is positively correlated with body size among study sites. Temporal process variance in annual survival is low, averaging 0.0011 or less than 4% of total variance; thus, stochasticity in annual survival may be of minor significance to snake extinction risk. Estimates of realized population growth indicate that population size has been stable or increasing over the course of our study. More generally, snake annual survival overlaps broadly across continents, climate zones, families, subfamilies, reproductive modes, body size categories, maturation categories, and parity categories. Differences in survival in relation to size, parity, and maturation are in the directions predicted by life history theory but are of small magnitude with much variation around median values. Overall, annual survival appears to be quite plastic, varying with food availability, habitat quality, and other ecological variables. 相似文献
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Brett T. McClintock 《Ecology and evolution》2015,5(21):4920-4931
I describe an open‐source R package, multimark , for estimation of survival and abundance from capture–mark–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks. Noninvasive marks include natural pelt or skin patterns, scars, and genetic markers that enable individual identification in lieu of physical capture. multimark provides a means for combining and jointly analyzing encounter histories from multiple noninvasive sources that otherwise cannot be reliably matched (e.g., left‐ and right‐sided photographs of bilaterally asymmetrical individuals). The package is currently capable of fitting open population Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) and closed population abundance models with up to two mark types using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. multimark can also be used for Bayesian analyses of conventional capture–recapture data consisting of a single‐mark type. Some package features include (1) general model specification using formulas already familiar to most R users, (2) ability to include temporal, behavioral, age, cohort, and individual heterogeneity effects in detection and survival probabilities, (3) improved MCMC algorithm that is computationally faster and more efficient than previously proposed methods, (4) Bayesian multimodel inference using reversible jump MCMC, and (5) data simulation capabilities for power analyses and assessing model performance. I demonstrate use of multimark using left‐ and right‐sided encounter histories for bobcats (Lynx rufus) collected from remote single‐camera stations in southern California. In this example, there is evidence of a behavioral effect (i.e., trap “happy” response) that is otherwise indiscernible using conventional single‐sided analyses. The package will be most useful to ecologists seeking stronger inferences by combining different sources of mark–recapture data that are difficult (or impossible) to reliably reconcile, particularly with the sparse datasets typical of rare or elusive species for which noninvasive sampling techniques are most commonly employed. Addressing deficiencies in currently available software, multimark also provides a user‐friendly interface for performing Bayesian multimodel inference using capture–recapture data consisting of a single conventional mark or multiple noninvasive marks. 相似文献
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During a survey of the population of blacktip reef shark Carcharhinus melanopterus in Moorea (French Polynesia) between 2007 and 2011, population structural characteristics were estimated from 268 individuals. Total length (LT) ranged from 48 to 139 cm and 48 to 157 cm for males and females, respectively, demonstrating that the average LT of females was larger than that of males. The C. melanopterus population at Moorea showed an apparent spatial sexual segregation with females preferentially frequenting lagoons and males the fore‐reefs. Mean growth rate was c. 6 cm year?1. Males reached sexual maturity at 111 cm LT. This study reports on the population characteristics of this widespread carcharhinid shark species and makes comparisons with other locations, confirming high geographic variability in the population structure of the species. 相似文献
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Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat. 相似文献
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Matthieu Guillemain Jocelyn Champagnon Marie‐Lucile Gourlay‐Larour Francois Cavallo Anne‐Laure Brochet Jean Hars Gregoire Massez Thierry George Pierre‐Yves Perroi Veronique Jestin Alain Caizergues 《Ibis》2015,157(4):743-753
Concerns about the spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have led to cloacal swab sampling of hundreds of thousands of birds worldwide as part of AIV surveillance schemes, but the effects of cloacal swabbing have not been adequately evaluated. We tested for differences between swabbed, swabbed and bled, and non‐sampled wild ducks in terms of live re‐encounter and dead recoveries for Common Pochard Aythya ferina and Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula, and also determined re‐encounter and recovery rates for Mallard Anas platyrhynchos and Common Teal Anas crecca. No effects of sampling methods were detected, except in Teal. Re‐encounter rates were lower in sampled Teal than in controls, with annual re‐encounter probabilities being 25% and 35% lower in males and females, respectively. Teal possibly left or avoided sampling sites, or sought sites where they were less detectable after sampling. In general, no deleterious effects were found, suggesting that cloacal swabbing and blood sampling are suitable methods for conducting AIV surveillance in ducks. 相似文献
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We analyzed seasonal variation in mortality rates in adult males and females of the European adder (Vipera berus), using data collected during a 13‐year capture–recapture study (2005–2017) in a large population. We concurrently obtained quantitative information on the seasonal variation in the detectability and body condition of adders. Our results show strong seasonality in body condition, encounter, and capture rates of adult adders, and these patterns differ markedly between sexes and between breeding and nonbreeding females. Seasonal variation in mortality rates was however virtually nonexistent in males and moderately low in both breeding and nonbreeding females. In addition, we found no evidence for among‐year differences in the seasonal mortality schedules of males and females. During periods of intensive basking, both males and pregnant females are highly visible for humans, but are not subject to strong natural mortality. This low susceptibility to predation is presumably induced by various factors, including the limitation of overt exposure to short periods of time and specific microhabitats, the dorsal coloration pattern that provides cryptic protection and possibly also an aposematic warning signal, and presumed seasonal differences in the foraging behavior and food requirements of natural predators. Our data provide some evidence that female adders, but not males, are relatively vulnerable to predation during the seasonal migrations between the hibernation and feeding habitats. Mortality in the females was not much elevated during their breeding years, but was notably highest in the spring of the ensuing nonbreeding year. After giving birth, reproductive females are extremely emaciated and have a weakened general condition. They then run the risk of dying from starvation either before, during, or after hibernation. The higher mortality after giving birth, that is sustained over a period of ca. 9 months, should be considered as an indirect and delayed survival cost of reproduction. 相似文献
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Monthly, overwinter and annual instantaneous growth rates for round goby Neogobius melanostomus were calculated with maximal growth occurring in July and August and almost no growth observed between ice appearance (October) and melt (March). Annual absolute growth rates averaged 27·3 ± 1·9 mm for males and 19·8 ± 2·4 mm for females. The most parsimonious Cormack–Jolly–Seber model indicated that both the survival and recapture probabilities were dependent on sampling date, but not sex. Survival estimates remained high throughout the 13 month study with a median weekly survival probability of 0·920 (25 and 75% quartiles: 0·767 and 0·991), an overwinter survival probability of 99% and an annual survival rate of 67%. Survival probabilities were lowest for both sexes near the completion of the N. melanostomus reproductive season in July and August which supports existing evidence of higher mortality after reproduction, while challenging the paradigm that male N. melanostomus suffer comparatively higher mortality as a result of reproduction than females. Evidence indicating that growth and mortality rates are highest at the end of the reproductive season not only highlights seasonal variability in N. melanostomus natural history, but may also guide the control of this invasive species to periods when they are most vulnerable. 相似文献
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Species that provide intensive parental care could suffer fitness costs associated with conspecific brood parasitism. Here we evaluate the effect of conspecific brood parasitism on apparent annual survival probability of female Prothonotary Warblers Protonotaria citrea using a multistate model with imperfect state assignment analysed in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We found no difference in annual survival probability between host and non‐host females. These findings agree with previous work in that there seems to be little apparent cost of conspecific brood parasitism to female Warblers in this system. 相似文献
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Ryan T. Godwin 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2019,61(6):1541-1556
The one‐inflated positive Poisson mixture model (OIPPMM) is presented, for use as the truncated count model in Horvitz–Thompson estimation of an unknown population size. The OIPPMM offers a way to address two important features of some capture–recapture data: one‐inflation and unobserved heterogeneity. The OIPPMM provides markedly different results than some other popular estimators, and these other estimators can appear to be quite biased, or utterly fail due to the boundary problem, when the OIPPMM is the true data‐generating process. In addition, the OIPPMM provides a solution to the boundary problem, by labelling any mixture components on the boundary instead as one‐inflation. 相似文献
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Laura Schenker Kurt Bollmann Maik Rehnus Sabine Brodbeck Felix Gugerli 《Ecology and evolution》2020,10(18):10150-10166
Systematic monitoring of individuals and their abundance over time has become an important tool to provide information for conservation. For genetic monitoring studies, noninvasive sampling has emerged as a valuable approach, particularly so for elusive or rare animals. Here, we present the 5‐year results of an ongoing noninvasive genetic monitoring of mountain hares (Lepus timidus) in a protected area in the Swiss Alps. We used nuclear microsatellites and a sex marker to identify individuals and assign species to noninvasively collected feces samples. Through including a marker for sex identification, we were able to assess sex ratio changes and sex‐specific demographic parameters over time. Male abundance in the area showed high fluctuations and apparent survival for males was lower than for females. Generally, males and females showed only little temporary migration into and out of the study area. Additionally, using genotyped tissue samples from mountain hares, European hares (Lepus europaeus) and their hybrids, we were able to provide evidence for the first occurrence of a European hare in the study area at an elevation of 2,300 m a.s.l. in spring 2016. For future monitoring studies, we suggest to include complementary analysis methods to reliably infer species identities of the individuals analyzed and, thus, not only monitor mountain hare individual abundance, but also assess the potential threats given through competitive exclusion by and hybridization with the European hare. 相似文献
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Aly McKnight Erik J. Blomberg Gregory H. Golet David B. Irons Cynthia S. Loftin Shawn T. McKinney 《Journal of avian biology》2018,49(8)
Trade‐offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short‐term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long‐lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long‐term survival and breeding effects of a multi‐year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, a long‐lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi‐state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16‐yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long‐term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long‐lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern. 相似文献
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Uriel Hernndez‐Salinas Aurelio Ramírez‐Bautista Raciel Cruz‐Elizalde Shai Meiri Christian Berriozabal‐Islas 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(4):2061-2071
Juvenile growth rates are thought to be restricted by available food resources. In animals that grow throughout the year, such as tropical lizards, growth is therefore predicted to be faster during the rainy season. We test this prediction using a population of Anolis nebulosusby describing the growth trajectories of both sexes using nonlinear regression models, and we then correlate the growth rates of individuals with food available in the environment, precipitation, and temperature. The Von Bertalanffy model fits the growth rates of the females better, while the logistic‐by‐length model fits the males better. According to both models, the males grew faster than females, reaching slightly smaller sizes at adulthood. Males reached sexual maturity when 35 mm long, at an age of seven months, and females matured at 37 mm (SVL), taking nine months to reach this size. In 1989, juvenile males and females grew more in both seasons (rainy and dry) than adults; for 1990, there were no differences by season or between age classes. These results are interesting since in the 1989 and 1990 rainy seasons, practically the same orders of prey and the greatest abundance of prey available in the environment were registered. A possible explanation could be that predation was more intense in 1990 than in 1989. There is little evidence that food, temperature, and humidity affect growth rates of A. nebulosus, refuting our predictions. This is mainly due to the low variation in growth observed in 1990. Therefore we think that the growth of this species reflects a complex combination of ecological and genetic factors. 相似文献
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Global climate change and associated regional climate variability is impacting the phenology of many species, ultimately altering individual fitness and population dynamics. Yet, few studies have considered the effects of pertinent seasonal climate variability on phenology and fitness. Hibernators may be particularly susceptible to changes in seasonal climate since they have a relatively short active season in which to reproduce and gain enough mass to survive the following winter. To understand whether and how seasonal climate variability may be affecting hibernator fitness, we estimated survival from historical (1964–1968) and contemporary (2014–2017) mark–recapture data collected from the same population of Uinta ground squirrels (UGS, Urocitellus armatus), a hibernator endemic to the western United States. Despite a locally warming climate, the phenology of UGS did not change over time, yet season‐specific climate variables were important in regulating survival rates. Specifically, older age classes experienced lower survival when winters or the following springs were warm, while juveniles benefited from warmer winter temperatures. Although metabolic costs decrease with decreasing temperature in the hibernacula, arousal costs increase with decreasing temperature. Our results suggest that this trade‐off is experienced differently by immature and mature individuals. We also observed an increase in population density during that time period, suggesting resources are less limited today than they used to be. Cheatgrass is now dominating the study site and may provide a better food source to UGS than native plants did historically. 相似文献
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Linking dispersal to population growth remains a challenging task and is a major knowledge gap, for example, for conservation management. We studied relative roles of different demographic rates behind population growth in Siberian flying squirrels in two nest‐box breeding populations in western Finland. Adults and offspring were captured and individually identifiable. We constructed an integrated population model, which estimated all relevant annual demographic rates (birth, local [apparent] survival, and immigration) as well as population growth rates. One population (studied 2002–2014) fluctuated around a steady‐state equilibrium, whereas the other (studied 1995–2014) showed a numerical decline. Immigration was the demographic rate which showed clear correlations to annual population growth rates in both populations. Population growth rate was density dependent in both populations. None of the demographic rates nor the population growth rate correlated across the two study populations, despite their proximity suggesting that factors regulating the dynamics are determined locally. We conclude that flying squirrels may persist in a network of uncoupled subpopulations, where movement between subpopulations is of critical importance. Our study supports the view that dispersal has the key role in population survival of a small forest rodent. 相似文献
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Mnica Arso Civil Barbara Cheney Nicola J. Quick Valentina Islas‐Villanueva Jeff A. Graves Vincent M. Janik Paul M. Thompson Philip S. Hammond 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(1):533-544
Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data. 相似文献
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Marlène Gamelon Stefano Focardi Jean‐Michel Gaillard Olivier Gimenez Christophe Bonenfant Barbara Franzetti Rémi Choquet Francesca Ronchi Eric Baubet Jean‐François Lemaître 《Evolution; international journal of organic evolution》2014,68(12):3636-3643
Actuarial senescence is widespread in age‐structured populations. In growing populations, the progressive decline of Hamiltonian forces of selection with age leads to decreasing survival. As actuarial senescence is overcompensated by a high fertility, actuarial senescence should be more intense in species with high reproductive effort, a theoretical prediction that has not been yet explicitly tested across species. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) females have an unusual life‐history strategy among large mammals by associating both early and high reproductive effort with potentially long lifespan. Therefore, wild boar females should show stronger actuarial senescence than similar‐sized related mammals. Moreover, being polygynous and much larger than females, males should display higher senescence rates than females. Using a long‐term monitoring (18 years) of a wild boar population, we tested these predictions. We provided clear evidence of actuarial senescence in both sexes. Wild boar females had earlier but not stronger actuarial senescence than similar‐sized ungulates. Both sexes displayed similar senescence rates. Our study indicates that the timing of senescence, not the rate, is associated with the magnitude of fertility in ungulates. This demonstrates the importance of including the timing of senescence in addition to its rate to understand variation in senescence patterns in wild populations. 相似文献