中国陆栖哺乳动物物种丰富度的地理格局及其与环境因子的关系

物种丰富度的大尺度地理格局及其成因是宏观生态学和生物地理学的中心议题之一。本文利用中国陆栖哺乳动物分布数据, 结合高分辨率的气候、地形、植被等环境信息, 探讨了中国陆栖哺乳动物及主要类群的物种丰富度格局及其影响因素。结果显示, 中国陆栖哺乳动物物种丰富度具有显著的纬度梯度格局, 总体上呈现出由低纬度向高纬度逐渐减少的趋势, 并与宏观地形具有良好的对应关系; 其中, 亚热带、热带西部山区的物种丰富度最高, 而东部平原地区、西北干旱区和青藏高原腹地则是丰富度的低值区。各主要类群的物种丰富度格局既有相似性, 又存在差异。最优线性模型的分析结果显示, 由归一化植被指数(NDVI)、生态系统类型数和气温年较差构成的回归模型对哺乳动物物种丰富度格局的解释率最高, 其中NDVI对模型解释率的贡献最大, 这表明中国陆栖哺乳动物物种丰富度的地理分异受多种环境因素的共同影响, 其中植被生产力起主导作用。各主要类群的最优线性模型显示, 影响物种丰富度格局的主要环境因子因类群而异, 这可能反映了各类群进化历史及生理适应的差异。     

Global patterns of species richness of the holarctic alpine herb Saxifraga: the role of temperature and habitat heterogeneity

北半球高山和极地虎耳草属物种丰富度的地理格局：温度和生境异质性的作用 现代气候、生境异质性和长期气候变化对森林生态系统中分布的木本植物的物种丰富度格局的影响在以往研究中受到广泛关注,但对高寒-极地生态系统中的草本植物物种丰富度格局及其影响因素的研究仍较少。本研究旨在检验以往研究中基于物种丰富度和环境因子关系提出的假说是否能够解释高寒-极地地区典型草本植物-虎耳草属(Saxifraga)的物种丰富度格局。本研究利用全球437种虎耳草属物种分布数据,探讨了全部物种、广域和狭域物种丰富度格局的影响因素。采用广义线性模型和空间自回归模型,评估了现代气候、生境异质性和历史气候对虎耳草属物种丰富度格局的影响。采用偏回归分析了不同变量对物种丰富度的独立解释率和共同解释率,并检验了4种广泛使用的物种丰富度与环境关系模型对物种丰富度格局的解释能力。研究结果表明,温度与虎耳草属所有物种和广域物种的物种丰富度格局呈显著负相关关系,是影响物种丰富度格局最重要的环境因子,这可能反映了虎耳草属对其祖先温带生态位的保守性。生境异质性和末次冰期以来的气候变化是虎耳草属狭域物种丰富度空间变异的最佳预测因子。总体而言,包含5个预测变量的组合模型可以解释大约40%–50%的虎耳草属物种丰富度的空间变异。此外,进化和生物地理过程在虎耳草属物种丰富度格局形成方面可能发挥了重要作用,这有待进一步研究。     

贺兰山甲虫物种丰富度分布格局及其环境解释

理解山地物种丰富度分布格局及其成因对于山地生物多样性保护具有重要意义。本文基于贺兰山地区甲虫31科252属469种的分布信息, 结合相关气候与生境异质性数据, 系统地探讨了贺兰山地区甲虫及6个优势科物种丰富度地理格局及其影响因素。结果表明, 甲虫物种丰富度及科属区系分化强度以贺兰山中段最高, 南段比北段高, 西坡比东坡高。基于183个栅格内物种分布的二元数据聚类分析, 贺兰山甲虫分布可分为北段强旱生景观甲虫地理群、中西段半湿生景观甲虫地理群、中东段及南段半旱生景观甲虫地理群3个地理群。冗余分析(RDA)表明年均温和年均降水量是影响最显著的因子。方差分解结果显示, 水分与能量因子共同解释了全部甲虫物种丰富度57.1%的空间变异, 单独解释率分别为5.9%和7.1%。生境异质性解释了全部甲虫物种丰富度35.2%的变异, 单独解释率仅为1.8%。气候因素与生境异质性对不同优势科物种丰富度的相对影响并不一致。在贺兰山的南段和北段, 生境异质性和水分因子对甲虫物种丰富度影响作用明显。水分和能量因子是贺兰山地区甲虫物种丰富度空间分布格局的主导因子, 生境异质性有助于提高甲虫物种丰富度。从未解释的比例来分析, 地形和土壤因素可能对贺兰山甲虫物种丰富度存在重要影响。     

新疆开都河流域水生植物多样性及其影响因素

河流是一个连续的、流动的、独特而完整的系统,研究河流生态系统中水生植物的多样性分布格局及其影响因素对河流生态学研究具有重要意义。本文通过野外调查,研究了新疆开都河流域水生植物多样性、主要水生植物群落特征及与环境因子之间的关系,并利用水分-能量动态假说和栖息地异质性假说对该流域水生植物物种多样性的地理格局进行解释。结果表明: 开都河流域共有水生植物71种,隶属于24科39属;聚类分析可将开都河流域水生植物群落划分为10个主要群落类型,其中芦苇群落物种丰富度最高,狭叶香蒲群落和金鱼藻群落物种丰富度最低;流域水生植物群落Shannon指数与pH呈显著负相关,Simpson指数与pH、经度呈显著负相关,与海拔呈显著正相关;流域水生植物群落类型主要受海拔、水深及水温的影响;流域水生植物物种多样性随经纬度无明显变化规律。水分-能量动态假说和栖息地异质性假说共解释开都河流域水生植物多样性格局变量的31.4%,表明这两个假说对于该流域水生植物多样性格局的解释力并不高。     

中国两栖动物物种丰富度省级地理分布格局及其与气候因子的关系

物种丰富度分布格局及其形成机制的研究对于生物多样性保护具有重要意义。为了解中国两栖动物物种丰富度分布格局,本文利用中国省级尺度两栖动物物种分布数据和环境信息,结合GIS和数理统计方法,探讨两栖动物物种丰富度的地理分布格局与环境因子之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)物种丰富度随纬度增加呈逐渐递减趋势,但缺乏显著的经度梯度。丰富度最高的地区主要集中在南方,我国北方、西北干旱区和青藏高原北部地区丰富度较低;(2)最优模型由年均温、最冷月均温、净初级生产力、年降水量变化范围、月均降水量标准差组成,多层次方差分解表明,最冷月均温的独立解释能力(17.6%)高于年均温(11.5%);(3)方差分解表明,季节性因子的独立解释能力(5.6%)低于热量因子(6.1%),但高于水分因子(4.5%),因此我们认为季节性因子也是限制中国两栖动物分布的重要因素。     

中国种子植物物种多样性的大尺度分布格局及其气候解释

物种多样性分布格局的研究对于生物多样性的保护具有重要意义.为了解中国种子植物物种多样性的空间分布格局,本研究利用大尺度的物种分布数据,结合GIS和统计分析方法,探讨了中国种子植物物种多样性的大尺度分布格局及其与气候的关系.结果表明,中国种子植物的物种丰富度和物种密度存在较大的空间变异.从南到北,物种密度呈显著递减趋势,而物种丰富度的递减趋势不够明显.面积、年平均温度、年平均降水量和无霜期对物种丰富度、物种密度分布格局均无显著影响.温度年较差、最冷月均温、年平均温度和年平均降水量的空间分异对物种丰富度的分布格局均有显著影响;温度年较差、最冷月均温和单位面积的年平均温度、年平均降水量的空间分异均显著影响物种密度的分布格局.温度年较差在一定程度上决定了物种丰富度与物种密度的总体分布格局,而年平均温度以及单位面积的年平均温度空间分异对上述格局的解释率则相对较低.在大尺度的物种多样性格局及其气候解释的相关研究中,气候因子的空间变异和季节性分异相对表示气候总体水平的年平均温度和年平均降水量而言,可能更值得关注.     

宏生态尺度上景观破碎化对物种丰富度的影响

生物多样性的地理格局及其形成机制是宏生态学与生物地理学的研究热点。大量研究表明,景观尺度上的生境破碎化对物种多样性的分布格局具有重要作用,但目前尚不清楚这种作用是否足以在宏生态尺度上对生物多样性地理格局产生显著影响。利用中国大陆鸟类和哺乳动物的物种分布数据,在100 km×100 km网格的基础上生成了这两个类群生物的物种丰富度地理格局,进一步利用普通最小二乘法模型和空间自回归模型研究了物种丰富度与气候、生境异质性、景观破碎化的相关关系。结果表明,景观破碎化因子与鸟类和哺乳动物的物种丰富度都具有显著的关联关系,其方差贡献率可达约30%—50%(非空间模型)和60%—80%(空间模型),略低于或接近于气候和生境异质性因子。方差分解结果显示,景观破碎化因子与气候和生境异质性因子的方差贡献率的重叠部分达20%—40%。相对鸟类而言,景观破碎化对哺乳动物物种丰富度的地理格局具有更高的解释率。     

气候假说对内蒙古草原群落物种多样性格局的解释

物种丰富度的地理格局是宏观生态学和生物地理学的中心议题之一。本文基于内蒙古草原192个野外样地的调查数据,结合各样地年平均气温、年降水量等9个气候因子,探讨内蒙古草原物种丰富度格局及其主导因素,以确定气候假说在该区的适用性。结果表明:(1)内蒙古草原物种丰富度经度格局显著,呈现沿经度升高而增加的趋势,同时由于经纬度的共线性,也呈现出沿纬度升高而增加的趋势。(2)方差分解显示,能量单独解释率为2.7%,水分单独解释率为11.4%,水分和能量共同解释率为46.3%,未解释部分为39.6%,可见能量与水分的共同作用在物种丰富度格局形成中占主导地位,支持水热动态假说。这说明水热动态假说适用于解释内蒙古草原物种丰富度格局。     

中国黑戈壁地区植物物种丰富度格局的水热解释

我国黑戈壁地区自然环境恶劣,植物多样性格局受到极端干旱气候的影响而形成了特殊的分布格局。为了揭示黑戈壁地区极端气候对物种丰富度格局的影响,通过对5000 km样线内174个样方中的植物进行调查,结合气候数据,研究影响中国黑戈壁地区植物物种丰富度格局的气候因素以及不同生活型植物物种丰富度格局与气候关系的差异。结果表明,水热动态假说对物种丰富度格局的解释率为62.3%,未解释部分为37.7%,说明其能够很好的解释黑戈壁地区的植物群落物种丰富度格局;能量对物种丰富格局的单独解释率仅为3.5%,水分的单独解释率为16.4%,两者共同解释率为42.4%,水分和能量共同决定的水资源可利用性主导着物种丰富度格局;不同生活型植物对气候因子的响应存在显著差异,水热综合作用对草本植物丰富度格局的解释率为65.4%,但对灌木仅有37.9%,表明水热动态假说不适用于解释灌木植物的物种丰富度格局,植物对气候的适应特性及种间相互作用对物种丰富度格局有着重要的影响。     

西南喀斯特地貌区两栖动物丰富度分布格局与环境因子的关系

物种丰富度分布格局的成因机制一直是宏观生态学研究的热点问题之一。中国西南地区喀斯特地貌区(以广西、云南和贵州为主)是世界上面积最大的喀斯特地貌区,也是全球范围内34个生物多样性热点地区之一。为了解该区域两栖动物物种丰富度分布格局及其与环境因子之间的关系,本研究根据中国科学院成都生物研究所标本馆、中国科学院昆明动物研究所标本馆、广西壮族自治区自然博物馆和中南林业科技大学动物标本室收藏的标本数据,以及公开发表的文献数据,共获得18,246条两栖动物记录(219个物种),然后运用生态位模型估测每个物种的潜在分布区,并把每个物种的潜在分布区叠加起来,最终得到该区域在10km×10km生态位模型空间尺度上的两栖物种丰富度地理分布格局图,最后进行多元回归和模型选择分析。结果表明:有12种两栖动物仅在喀斯特地貌区分布,占物种总数的5.48%;有104种两栖动物仅在非喀斯特地貌区分布,占物种总数的47.49%;有103种两栖动物在喀斯特地貌区和非喀斯特地貌区均有分布,占物种总数的47.03%;两栖动物物种丰富度随纬度的增高而降低;地貌类型(喀斯特地貌和非喀斯特地貌)对两栖动物物种丰富度的分布格局有显著影响(χ~2=36.47, P 0.0001),但模型拟合效果差(McFadden’s Rho square=0.0037)。影响该区域两栖动物物种丰富度分布格局最大的环境因子是年均降雨量(R~2=0.232, P 0.001),其次是最干月平均降雨量(R~2=0.221, P 0.001)。该区域两栖动物物种丰富度的格局主要是由地貌和不同的环境因子共同相互作用的结果,不过仍有相当一部分物种丰富度的分布格局未被解释。因此,要更全面地认识该区域两栖动物物种丰富度格局的形成机制,有必要加强干扰、捕食、竞争等其他生物因子的影响研究。     

中国蚂蚁丰富度地理分布格局及其与环境因子的关系

物种丰富度分布格局及其形成机制的研究对于生物多样性保护具有重要意义。为了了解中国蚂蚁物种丰富度分布格局,利用中国省级尺度蚂蚁物种分布数据和环境信息,结合GIS和数理统计方法,探讨蚂蚁物种丰富度的地理分布格局与环境因子之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)蚂蚁丰富度随纬度增加呈逐渐递减趋势,但缺乏显著的经度梯度。丰富度最高的地区主要集中在南方省份,我国北方、西北干旱区和青藏高原北部地区丰富度较低;(2)简单线性回归分析表明,能量、水分和季节性因素中,影响蚂蚁物种丰富度最强的因子分别为最冷月均温(TEMmin)(R2adj=0.532)、年均降水量(PREC)(R2adj=0.376)和年温度变化范围(TEMvar)(R2adj=0.539),而单个生境异质性因子对蚂蚁物种丰富度的影响均不显著;(3)最优模型由年均温(TEM)、海拔变化范围(ELErange)和年温度变化范围(TEMvar)组成,能够解释68.4%的蚂蚁丰富度地理分异。鉴于海拔变化范围更多地反映与温度相关的生境异质性,因此温度是限制中国蚂蚁分布的最重要因素。另外,分析结果还表明,海南、贵州、江西、四川、安徽和山西等6省蚂蚁区系调查最不充分,是未来发现蚂蚁新分布的热点地区。     

Elevational gradients of diversity for lizards and snakes in the Hengduan Mountains,China

Comparing elevational gradients across a wide spectrum of climatic zones offers an ideal system for testing hypotheses explaining the altitudinal gradients of biodiversity. We document elevational patterns of lizard and snake species richness, and explore how land area and climatic factors may affect species distributions of lizards and snakes. Our synthesis found 42 lizard species and 94 snake species known from the Hengduan Mountains. The lizards are distributed between 500 and 3500 m, and the snakes are distributed between 500 and 4320 m. The relationship between species richness and elevation for lizards and snakes is unimodal. Land area explains a significant amount of the variation in lizard and snake species richness. The cluster analysis reveals pronounced distinct assemblages for lizards and snakes to better reflect the vertical profiles of climate in the mountains. Climatic variables are strongly associated with lizard and snake richness along the elevational gradient. The data strongly implicate water availability as a key constraint on lizard species richness, and annual potential evapotranspiration is the best predictor of snake species richness along the elevational gradient in the Hengduan Mountains.     

基于Maxent模型的党参全球潜在分布区预测

基于党参全球129个分布点和37个生态因子,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)与地理信息系统(GIS)预测党参的全球生态适宜区.结果表明: 党参的全球生态适宜区总面积达到884.79×10⁴ km²,主要分布在北半球的东亚地区,其中以中国最为集中.中国的党参生态适宜区中,适宜性指数较高的区域主要分布在山西、陕西、四川、甘肃东南地区、西藏东部、云南东南地区、山东东北地区等,中国是党参的最佳栽培区.影响党参地理分布的生态因子主要是气候因子,其中,温度因子起主导作用,降水因子次之;然后依次是地形与土壤因子.年均温和降水的季节性、最冷季平均温、最干季降水量对其影响最大.     

Potential distribution analysis of an invasive alien species Parapediasia teterrella (Lepidoptera,Crambidae) in East Asia

The bluegrass webworm moth Parapediasia teterrella (Zincken, 1821) is a notorious pest that is native to North America. However, it has invaded East Asia and has caused serious economic losses in China and Japan. The objective of this paper is to analyse the potential geographic distribution of P. teterrella in East Asia with MaxEnt, using predictor variables related to temperature and precipitation. It is suggested that this species has potential to establish in Southeast China, most areas of Jeollanam-do, eastern coastal region of South Korea, and most areas of Japan. Furthermore, we applied the Jackknife test to evaluate the significance of climatic variables in modelling the potential distribution of P. teterrella. The result indicates that annual mean temperature (Bio1), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) mainly affect its geographical distribution. A map showing the potential distribution of P. teterrella in East Asia is provided, and morphological diagnosis of the species is also given.     

中国兜兰属宽瓣亚属植物地理分布格局及其主导气候因子

为明确兜兰属宽瓣亚属(Paphiopedilum Subgen. Brachypetalum)植物在中国的自然地理分布格局及其主导气候因子,该研究以7种宽瓣亚属植物为研究对象并利用ArcGIS技术提取其在中国194个地理分布点的气候数据, 采用描述性统计分析宽瓣亚属植物在中国分布区的气候特点, 采用逐步回归拟合各气候因子与其经纬度分布的线性关系, 最后通过冗余分析(RDA)和蒙特卡洛(Monte-Carlo)检验量化各气候因子对宽瓣亚属植物地理分布的贡献率。结果表明: (1)宽瓣亚属植物在中国主要分布于滇东南、黔西南、黔南、黔东北、滇西北、桂北与黔南交界处以及桂西北至桂西南地区。(2)该亚属植物在中国分布区的昼夜温差月均值、年平均气温变化范围、最暖季度平均气温、最冷季度平均气温4项热量因子的平均值分别为8.13、23.70、23.62和9.23 ℃, 降水量变异系数、最湿季度降水量、最干季度降水量、干旱指数4项水分因子平均值分别为75.66%、673.10 mm、73.97 mm和26.12%, 整体上具有湿热的气候特点; 各物种间, 狭域分布的物种与广布种间的气候因子存在显著差异。(3)逐步回归分析表明, 各拟合方程均达到极显著水平, 昼夜温差月均值、最暖季度平均气温、最冷季度平均气温、降水量变异系数、最干季度降水量、干旱指数是影响中国宽瓣亚属植物沿经度分布的主要因子; 最冷季度平均气温、最湿季度降水量、年平均气温变化范围、最干季度降水量、降水量变异系数是影响中国宽瓣亚属植物沿纬度分布的主要因子。(4) RDA结果显示, 气候因子在第1轴的解释率为73.32%, 在第2轴的解释率为21.29%, 累计解释率为94.61%, 各气候因子的解释率大小排序为: 昼夜温差月均值(57.8%) >最暖季度平均气温(41.5%) >年平均气温变化范围(38.3%) >最干季度降水量(23.1%) >最冷季度平均气温(16.9%) >降水量变异系数(13.7%) =最湿季度降水量(13.7%) >干旱指数(3.0%)。因此, 昼夜温差月均值、最暖季度平均气温、年平均气温变化范围3个气候因子是影响中国宽瓣亚属植物分布的主导气候因子。     

Human overexploitation and extinction risk correlates of Chinese snakes

China is one of the countries with the richest snake biodiversity in the world. However, about one‐third of all 236 species are now considered threatened, partially due to the intense human overexploitation. Despite that, to date, no study has explicitly investigated the patterns and processes of extinction and threats of Chinese snakes, or between human exploited and unexploited snake subgroups. We addressed the following three questions: 1) which snake families proportionally include more human exploited species than expected by chance? 2) Which species traits and extrinsic factors are correlated with their extinction risk? 3) Are there differences between human exploited and unexploited species in terms of patterns and processes of extinction? We found that the family Elapidae contained a significantly higher number of exploited species. Considering eight species traits and four extrinsic factors, we performed phylogenetic correlation tests, finding that small geographic range size, large body length, oviparous reproduction, diurnal activity and high human exploitation were important in determining the extinction risk of all Chinese snakes. Moreover, human exploited snakes had a higher percentage of threatened species and large‐bodied species than unexploited snakes. Extinction risk of human exploited species was related to body length, reproduction mode and activity period, whereas that of human unexploited species were associated with geographic range size, microhabitat and annual temperature. Overall, we highlight the phylogenetic non‐random exploitation of snakes, and different factors underlying species response to human overexploitation. We suggest that conservation priority should be given to exploitation‐prone families and species with extinction‐prone traits, as identified in this study. Moreover, human exploited and unexploited species should be managed considering different strategies since their extinction risk was associated with different ecological traits. Conservation actions should also focus on preventing human threats, such as human overexploitation and habitat loss, for the effective preservation of Chinese snakes.     

Squamate richness in the Brazilian Cerrado and its environmental–climatic associations

We investigate patterns of species richness of squamates (lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians) in the Brazilian Cerrado, identifying areas of particularly high richness, and testing predictions of large‐scale richness hypotheses by analysing the relationship between species richness and environmental climatic variables. We used point localities from museum collections to produce maps of the predicted distributions for 237 Cerrado squamate species, using niche‐modelling techniques. We superimposed distributions of all species on a composite map, depicting richness across the ecosystem. Then, we performed a multiple regression analysis using eigenvector‐based spatial filtering (Principal Coordinate of Neighbour Matrices) to assess environmental–climatic variables that are best predictors of species richness. We found that the environmental–climatic and spatial filters multiple regression model explained 78% of the variation in Cerrado squamate richness (r² = 0.78; F = 32.66; P < 0.01). Best predictors of species richness were: annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, altitude, net primary productivity, and precipitation during the driest quarter. A model selection approach revealed that several mechanisms related to the different diversity hypothesis might work together to explain richness variation in the Cerrado. Areas of higher species richness in Cerrado were located mainly in the south‐west, north, extreme east, and scattered areas in the north‐west portions of the biome. Partitioning of energy among species, habitat differentiation, and tolerance to variable environments may be the primary ecological factors determining variation in squamate richness across the Cerrado. High richness areas in northern Cerrado, predicted by our models, are still poorly sampled, and biological surveys are warranted in that region. The south‐western region of the Cerrado exhibits high species richness and is also undergoing high levels of deforestation. Therefore, maintenance of existing reserves, establishment of ecological corridors among reserves, and creation of new reserves are urgently needed to ensure conservation of species in these areas.     

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.     

Environmental factors influencing bird species diversity in Kenya

Sustainable resource management requires understanding the factors that increase or decrease species richness. Regional species richness patterns may be predicted by analysing patterns of variation in the environment. A number of studies have shown that bird species richness at a regional scale is influenced by climatic variables. We examined environmental correlates of bird species richness at a quarter degree square scale (55 × 55 km). Mean annual potential evapotranspiration accounts for 46% of the observed variation in species richness, while mean annual temperature and range annual potential evapotranspiration are significantly correlated with species richness and together account for a further 5% of the observed variation. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that environmentally available energy limits regional species richness.     

气候变暖背景下春兰和蕙兰的适生区分布预测

为了阐明气候变暖背景下春兰(Cymbidium goeringii)和蕙兰(C. faberi)在我国的适生区分布变化情况,根据157条分布记录和19个生物气候变量,应用最大熵物种分布模型,对2070年4种温室气体排放情景下春兰和蕙兰在我国的适生区分布进行预测,并筛选影响其地理分布的主要气候因子。结果表明:(1)2070年春兰和蕙兰分布点的年均温(bio1)、最冷月最低温度(bio6)和最冷季平均温度(bio11)等均升高,气候有变暖趋势;(2)受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值在0.9—1.0之间,模型预测结果可信度较高;(3)影响春兰、蕙兰当前和2070年地理分布的限制性气候因子主要有最冷月最低温度(bio6)、最冷季平均温度(bio11)、年均降水量(bio12)和最干月份降水量(bio14);(4)气候变暖将会对春兰和蕙兰的适宜生境范围和面积产生影响。预测2070年春兰的适宜生境面积将会有所减小,而蕙兰的适宜生境面积将会增加,且整体有向北迁移的趋势。研究结果为野生春兰和蕙兰的生态风险评价和引种提供了重要依据。