山楂叶螨种群空间格局及其应用的研究Ⅱ．成螨种群密度综合估计及其抽样技术

本文结合Ｉｗａｏ零频率法和Ｇｅｒｒａｒｄ阈限密度法,提出一种改进的种群密度估计方法──“综合阈限密度估计法”,并由此探讨了苹果树上山楂叶螨成螨的密度估计及其抽样技术．采用零样频率来估计成螨的平均密度,并得到用概率保证的理论抽样数模型．比较结果表明,零频率法所需的理论抽样数少于直接计数法．综合阈限密度估计法的拟合效果更为显著．     

萝卜蚜不同虫口密度下的二项式抽样设计

基于1990—1992年间对杭州市郊区小白菜上萝卜蚜（Lipaphiserysimi）种群的田间抽样调查数据,根据虫口密度（m）,将数据归为两组,一组为整个虫口密度范围的数据;另一组为虫口密度≤5头／株范围的数据．每组数据选择不同的数阈值（T）,利用每样方不超过T头蚜虫的植株比例（P_T）与种群密度的关系,通过拟合经验公式Ln进行二项式抽样设计．对抽样方差（用MSE估计）、抽样精度（用d估计）进行分析发现,当用整个密度范围的数据进行拟合,且种群处于较高密度（m≥5）时,其理想的T值为10,可用于小白菜上萝卜蚜种群的二项式抽样设计．当用虫口密度m≤5的数据进行拟合时,T＝4时可保证抽样精度,但从实际应用考虑,则不宜用于萝卜蚜的二项式抽样设计．应用本文方法所发展的0—1抽样方法,无论是在整个密度范围还是在密度≤5的范围,都由于产生较大的抽样误差而不宜用于萝卜蚜。     

Iwao P_0-M模型特征参数估计的新方法

昆虫的空间分布型是昆虫种群的生物学特性对环境条件适应或选择的结果。明确昆虫的分布型对进一步了解昆虫生态特性,提高防治效果及试验设计的精确度,解决抽样问题及种群数量消长分析,具有生态学理论及生产实践的双重意义。昆虫种群的简易估计法,国内外已有不少报道[1～3,8,～10,12]。但是利用样本中零样方频率（比例）与种群密度间的关系来估计Iwao（1977）非线性模型中的特征参数,国内外未见报道。文献[2]利用Nachman（1984）模型对参数进行估计,而精度不够理想。本文设想在Iwao提出的零频率估计法基础上,提出一个新的估计特…     

二化螟种群密度的克力格估值及其模拟抽样

为设计可靠合理的二化螟幼虫种群密度抽样方案,从二化螟幼虫空间分布原始总体出发,另构建了一个随机总体和一个顺序总体,采用无放回随机抽样、间隔变程以上无放回随机抽样和基于克力格估值且初始点随机的顺序抽样对3总体进行了模拟抽样比较．结果表明,间隔变程以上随机抽样对原始总体平均数的估计优于随机抽样,且随总体聚集程度增加,间隔变程以上随机抽样愈优;正确识别种群空间格局极为重要,对聚集分布总体采用随机抽样和对随机分布总体采用间隔变程以上随机抽样均将降低抽样估计精度．针对随机抽样在应用上的局限性,提出了一种基于地统计学克力格估值、初始点随机的顺序抽样方案：它以初始点随机保证随机性,以顺序抽样保证可操作性,以二化螟种群空间分布的区域变量属性保证克力格样本较调查样本对局域样本和总体的平均数估计为优;且聚集范围一定时,总体聚集强度愈大,克力格样本局域估计和全局估计愈优于调查样本;取样间隔(以变程为标准)极为重要,样方的空间布局要平衡考虑相互独立的样方对数和变程范围内的样方对数。     

运动昆虫密度和疾病传染数量估计的两类模型

根据推导,得到用于运动昆虫密度和疾病接触传染数量估计的二维和三维空间模型．两类模型分别适用于爬行昆虫和飞行昆虫的种群密度估计．二维空间模型可用于描述昆虫疾病的接触传染数量,针对不同的用途,将两类基本模型进行了数种拓广.两类模型的建立,为运动昆虫的密度估计及疾病流行研究提供了重要的定量工具．     

寄生蜂种群繁殖分布时间特征的研究

运用１０种寄生蜂的２３张生殖力表资料,分析比较了这些种群繁殖分布的特征．结果表明,寄生蜂种群繁殖具有相似的分布特征,种群繁殖集中分布在生殖头ｄ天内,在生殖头ｄ／２天内繁殖分布更为集中．在生殖头ｄ天内种群繁殖对种群增长的贡献几乎均达到１００％,其中大部分贡献是在生殖头ｄ／２天内实现的．这种繁殖分布特征对于寄生蜂种群内禀增长率的测定和掌握种群数量动态的时间特性十分重要．本文结合Ｉｗａｏ零频率法和Ｇｅｒｒａｒｄ阈限密度法,提出一种改进的种群密度估计方法──“综合阈限密度估计法”,并由此探讨了苹果树上山楂叶螨成螨的密度估计及其抽样技术．采用零样频率来估计成螨的平均密度,并得到用概率保证的理论抽样数模型．比较结果表明,零频率法所需的理论抽样数少于直接计数法．综合阈限密度估计法的拟合效果更为显著．     

2SUR回归模型系数估计的优良性比较

对于2SUR回归模型的参数估计问题,给出了一些一般均方误差矩阵比较结果,据此提出了一类线性估计和一类基于离差阵广义非限定估计的非线性两步估计,并获得了该两步估计类的一些有限样本性质。     

基于分形理论下的沙漠植被适应性群团抽样技术

以乌兰布和沙漠的白刺沙丘为主要研究对象,采用分形理论将遥感数据和实际调查数据相结合的方法,进行了适应性群团抽样技术的研究。基于分形理论建立描述白刺沙丘周长和面积关系的线性回归方程,利用周长估计了白刺沙丘的面积,估计精度达89.8%。在沙丘面积估计值的基础上,进行了适应性群团抽样分析。研究结果表明：当适应性标准（每个样方内白刺沙丘的面积）等于50 m²时,即接近含有白刺沙丘的样方均值时,适应性群团抽样的估计精度最高达到97.9%,适应性群团抽样效率是简单随机抽样效率的5.56倍。这一研究为沙漠地区具有群团分布特点的植被提供更有效的调查方法。     

桑瘿蚊幼虫的空间分布参数特征及其应用

利用桑瘿蚊的空间分布参数m^#．k．α.β.b值．确定桑瘿蚊幼虫属聚集分布,其原因主要是由于本身的聚集习性引起的,同时根据Iwao模型进行了资料代换。采用Iwao法．Taylor幂法则及Southwood。公共值Kc的理论抽样模式得出在不同密度(x)和不同精度(D)要求下的理论抽样数。应用Kuno模型探讨了序贯抽样方法。     

稻飞虱迁入初期成虫种群密度的零频率估计方法

为了在一定精度保证的前提下,简便、快捷地估计稻飞虱迁入初期成虫田间发生情况,本文基于稻飞虱成虫种群发生的田间调查数据,用种群密度m和零频率p0分别拟合Gerrard-Chiang模型、线性函数、二次函数、指数函数、幂函数和对数函数6种不同模型。结果表明,以Gerrard-Chiang模型m=1.2467（—ln p0）1.0721为最优,用其可根据零频率有效地估计稻飞虱迁入初期成虫种群密度。还确定了稻飞虱成虫不同零频率下的理论抽样数,同时进行了具体应用。     

Evaluation of statistical precision and design of efficient sampling for the population estimation based on frequency of occurrence

The binomial sampling to estimate population density of an organism based simply upon the frequency of its occurrence among sampled quadrats is a labour-saving technique which is potentially useful for small animals like insects and has actually been applied occasionally to studies of their populations. The present study provides a theoretical basis for this convenient technique, which makes it statistically reliable and tolerable for consistent use in intensive as well as preliminary population censuses. Firs, the magnitude of sampling error in relation to sample size is formulated mathematically for the estimate to be obtained by this indirect method of census, using either of the two popular models relating frequency of occurrence (p) to mean density (m), i.e. the negative binomial model, p=1−(1+m/k)^−k, and the empirical model, p=1−exp(−am^b). Then, the equations to calculate sample size and census cost that are necessary to attain a given desired level of precision in the estimation are derived for both models. A notable feature of the relationship of necessary sample size (or census cost) to mean density in the frequency method, in constrast to that in the ordinary census, is that it shows a concave curve which tends to rise sharply not only towards lower but also towards higher levels of density. These theoretical results make it also possible to design sequential estimation procedures based on this convenient census technique, which may enable us with the least necessary cost to get a series of population estimates with the desired precision level. Examples are presented to explain how to apply these programs to acutal censuses in the field.     

Prediction of cervical neoplasia diagnosis groups. Discriminant analysis on digitized cell images

The purpose of this study was to develop discriminant analysis models for predicting cervical dysplasia/neoplasia case diagnoses using cytometric features derived from the digital image analysis of cell monolayers. The data base consisted of 925 cells from 27 cases diagnosed either as moderate dysplasia (n = 10), severe dysplasia (n = 5), carcinoma in situ (n = 8) or invasive carcinoma (n = 4) on both tissue biopsy and monolayer preparations. Cell features examined were cell diameter, nuclear diameter, nuclear mean optical density (OD), nuclear integrated OD (IOD), nuclear OD standard deviation, normalized IOD, nuclear texture and nuclear-cytoplasmic ratio. Features derived from cells visually classified as moderate dysplasia correctly predicted the case diagnosis of moderate dysplasia versus more severe disease for 85% of the cells. Prediction models using summary measures (mean and variance) derived from all visually classified abnormal cells within each case correctly separated all cases into their respective diagnostic categories. These findings suggest that dysplastic cells in a cytologic sample have features that collectively reflect the tissue diagnosis, regardless of the visual differences among the cells. Such information has potential use for diagnosis and possibly for prognosis.     

Long-term changes in wood density and radial growth of Quercus petraea Liebl. in northern France since the middle of the nineteenth century

Long-term changes in sessile oak (Quercus petraea Liebl.) growth and wood density were studied using cores collected from 99 even-aged high forest stands between 56 and 187 years old, located in northeastern and north-central France. Growth and density trends were tested by analysis of variance and covariance. Two models were applied to two samples, sample A and sample B (sample B being a sub-sample with limited cambial age and calendar date ranges). Model 1 showed a significant increase in radial growth: +35%, +87% and +66% in earlywood width, latewood width and ring width, respectively, from 1811 to 1993 for sample A. Consequently, there was a positive trend in latewood ratio (+14%). A slight decrease in wood density was found: -3.3% and -5.4% for earlywood and latewood density, respectively. Despite an increase in latewood percentage, mean ring density showed a -2.0% decrease. Model 1 applied to a biomass indicator (density2ring width) showed a 62% increase from 10.4 to 16.8 kg m^-3 between 1811 and 1993 for sample A. Results for sample B were slightly different: the increase in latewood ratio was not detected. Model 2 showed a change with time in the positive hyperbolic relationship between mean density and ring width. The results are discussed. The decrease in wood density cannot be explained by N atmospheric deposition or by long-term changes in average temperature. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels cannot be invoked owing to the present lack of studies. Finally, hypotheses concerning long-term changes in wood anatomical characteristics are proposed.     

Vertical foodweb structure of freshwater zooplankton assemblages estimated by stable nitrogen isotopes

Although theoretical foodweb models predict the presence of only three to four trophic categories, estimation of “potential” vertical foodweb structure from species lists and inferred feeding interactions suggest that as many as 7 trophic categories can occur in the pelagic foodwebs of North American glaciated lakes. A compilation of data on the nitrogen isotopic composition of zooplankton from 46 Canadian Shield lakes suggested the average existence of one “realized” trophic category in addition to that of filter-feeding, herbivorous cladocerans. When phytoplankton, planktivorous invertebrates, and plantivorous and piscivorous fish are included, the vertical foodweb structure in the pelagic zones of these lakes are greater than those hypothesized from some theoretical models.     

Aggregation pattern of individuals and the outcomes of competition within and between species: Differential equation models

The influence of spatial distribution pattern on the outcomes of intra- and interspecific competition is studied theoretically. The models developed are the generalized logistic andVolterra equations, whereLloyd 's indices of intra- and interspecies mean crowding were incorporated with their assumed linear relationship to mean density in order to express the intensity of crowding which is really effective to the existing individuals. It is shown that while the increasing patchiness of distribution has a pronounced effect of promoting the intraspecific competition and lowering the equilibrium density for individual populations, it generally relaxes the interspecific competition, making it easy for different species sharing the same niche, which would otherwise be incompatible, to coexist stably. These models thus provide a simplest theoretical basis to explain why many insect populations in nature are kept relatively rare in number and why a number of allied species often coexist freely sharing the same resource, against the “competitive exclusion principle” deduced from the originalVolterra equations.     

Moment fitting for parameter inference in repeatedly and partially observed stochastic biological models

The inference of reaction rate parameters in biochemical network models from time series concentration data is a central task in computational systems biology. Under the assumption of well mixed conditions the network dynamics are typically described by the chemical master equation, the Fokker Planck equation, the linear noise approximation or the macroscopic rate equation. The inverse problem of estimating the parameters of the underlying network model can be approached in deterministic and stochastic ways, and available methods often compare individual or mean concentration traces obtained from experiments with theoretical model predictions when maximizing likelihoods, minimizing regularized least squares functionals, approximating posterior distributions or sequentially processing the data. In this article we assume that the biological reaction network can be observed at least partially and repeatedly over time such that sample moments of species molecule numbers for various time points can be calculated from the data. Based on the chemical master equation we furthermore derive closed systems of parameter dependent nonlinear ordinary differential equations that predict the time evolution of the statistical moments. For inferring the reaction rate parameters we suggest to not only compare the sample mean with the theoretical mean prediction but also to take the residual of higher order moments explicitly into account. Cost functions that involve residuals of higher order moments may form landscapes in the parameter space that have more pronounced curvatures at the minimizer and hence may weaken or even overcome parameter sloppiness and uncertainty. As a consequence both deterministic and stochastic parameter inference algorithms may be improved with respect to accuracy and efficiency. We demonstrate the potential of moment fitting for parameter inference by means of illustrative stochastic biological models from the literature and address topics for future research.     

A method to derive vegetation distribution maps for pollen dispersion models using birch as an example

Detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of sources is a crucial prerequisite for the application of pollen dispersion models such as, for example, COSMO-ART (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases). However, this input is not available for the allergy-relevant species such as hazel, alder, birch, grass or ragweed. Hence, plant distribution datasets need to be derived from suitable sources. We present an approach to produce such a dataset from existing sources using birch as an example. The basic idea is to construct a birch dataset using a region with good data coverage for calibration and then to extrapolate this relationship to a larger area by using land use classes. We use the Swiss forest inventory (1 km resolution) in combination with a 74-category land use dataset that covers the non-forested areas of Switzerland as well (resolution 100 m). Then we assign birch density categories of 0%, 0.1%, 0.5% and 2.5% to each of the 74 land use categories. The combination of this derived dataset with the birch distribution from the forest inventory yields a fairly accurate birch distribution encompassing entire Switzerland. The land use categories of the Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000; Global Land Cover 2000 database, 2003, European Commission, Joint Research Centre; resolution 1 km) are then calibrated with the Swiss dataset in order to derive a Europe-wide birch distribution dataset and aggregated onto the 7 km COSMO-ART grid. This procedure thus assumes that a certain GLC2000 land use category has the same birch density wherever it may occur in Europe. In order to reduce the strict application of this crucial assumption, the birch density distribution as obtained from the previous steps is weighted using the mean Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI; yearly sums of daily pollen concentrations). For future improvement, region-specific birch densities for the GLC2000 categories could be integrated into the mapping procedure.     

Infectious disease in consumer populations: dynamic consequences of resource-mediated transmission and infectiousness

Nonhost species can strongly affect the timing and progression of epidemics. One central interaction—between hosts, their resources, and parasites—remains surprisingly underdeveloped from a theoretical perspective. Furthermore, key epidemiological traits that govern disease spread are known to depend on resource density. We tackle both issues here using models that fuse consumer–resource and epidemiological theory. Motivated by recent studies of a phytoplankton–zooplankton–fungus system, we derive and analyze a family of dynamic models for parasite spread among consumers in which transmission depends on consumer (host) and resource densities. These models yield four key insights. First, host–resource cycling can lower mean host density and inhibit parasite invasion. Second, host–resource cycling can create Allee effects (bistability) if parasites increase mean host density by reducing the amplitude of host–resource cycles. Third, parasites can stabilize host–resource cycles; however, host–resource cycling can also cause disease cycling. Fourth, resource dependence of epidemiological traits helps to govern the relative dominance of these different behaviors. However, these resource dependencies largely have quantitative rather than qualitative effects on these three-species dynamics. Given the extent of these results, host–resource–parasite interactions should become more fundamental components of the burgeoning theory for the community ecology of infectious diseases.     

Inelastic neutron scattering analysis of picosecond internal protein dynamics. Comparison of harmonic theory with experiment

The experimental inelastic neutron scattering spectrum of a protein, the bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI), in a powder sample is presented together with the generalized density of states, G(omega), as a function of the frequency, omega, derived from the scattering data. The experimental results are compared with calculations from two different normal mode analyses of BPTI. One of these, based on an improved model, gives a calculated spectrum and density of states in general agreement with those obtained experimentally; the other, based on an earlier model, shows considerable disagreement. The important improvements in the newer normal mode analysis are the explicit treatment of all atoms (non-polar as well as polar hydrogens are included) and a modified truncation scheme for the long-range electrostatic interactions. The fact that the inelastic neutron scattering measurements can distinguish between the two theoretical models makes clear their utility for the analysis of protein dynamics.