Shrub shading moderates the effects of weather on arthropod activity in arctic tundra

1. Rapid warming has facilitated an increase in deciduous shrub cover in arctic tundra. Because shrubs create a cooler microclimate during the growing season, shrub cover could modulate the effects of global warming on the phenology and activity of ectotherms, including arthropods. This possibility was explored here using two dominant arthropod groups (flies and wolf spiders) in Alaskan tundra. 2. We monitored arthropods with pitfall traps over five summers at four sites that differed in shrub abundance, and used generalised additive mixed models (GAMMs) to separate the two underlying components of pitfall trap catch: the seasonal trend in arthropod density and the effects of short‐term weather variation (air temperature, wind speed, rainfall, solar radiation) on arthropod activity. 3. We found that shrub cover significantly altered the seasonal trend in the abundance of flies by reducing early‐season pitfall catch, in line with observed later snowmelt in shrub‐dominated plots at these sites. 4. Additionally, shrub cover modulated the effects of many weather variables on arthropod activity: shrub cover shifted wolf spiders' temperature–activity relationship, dampened the positive effect of solar radiation on the activity of arthropods in total, and ameliorated the negative effect of wind on the activity of flies. 5. Thus, these results indicate that shrub encroachment will probably be accompanied by altered arthropod responses to warming and other key weather variables. Because the rate of key ecological processes – herbivory, decomposition, predation – are controlled by activity at the organismal level, these effects on arthropods will have long‐term ecosystem‐level consequences.     

Predicting variability in catch-per-effort in Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, trap and gillnet fisheries

The relationships between catch rates and fish abundance, hydrographic conditions and fishing effort, for Atlantic cod caught by trapnets (fixed gear) and gillnets (non-fixed gear) in the northern Gulf of St Lawrence have been quantified. Daily changes in trap catch rates were accounted for by changes in salinity, currents and mean local cod densities in 1985 ( R ²= 0.78), and predicted 1986 trap catch rate changes (by 1985 model) were correlated significantly with those observed ( r = 0.60, P < 0.05). In contrast, the daily changes in 1985 gillnet catch rates were determined by currents, maximum (not mean) local cod densities, and fishing effort (negative) ( R ²= 0.68), while predicted 1986 gillnet catch rates (by 1985 model) were significantly correlated with those observed ( r = 0.35, P < 0.05). Seasonal catchability coefficients of the traps were similar in 1985 and 1986, but for gillnets this index was an order of magnitude higher in 1986 than in 1985.     

A spatially explicit capture–recapture estimator for single‐catch traps

Single‐catch traps are frequently used in live‐trapping studies of small mammals. Thus far, a likelihood for single‐catch traps has proven elusive and usually the likelihood for multicatch traps is used for spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) analyses of such data. Previous work found the multicatch likelihood to provide a robust estimator of average density. We build on a recently developed continuous‐time model for SECR to derive a likelihood for single‐catch traps. We use this to develop an estimator based on observed capture times and compare its performance by simulation to that of the multicatch estimator for various scenarios with nonconstant density surfaces. While the multicatch estimator is found to be a surprisingly robust estimator of average density, its performance deteriorates with high trap saturation and increasing density gradients. Moreover, it is found to be a poor estimator of the height of the detection function. By contrast, the single‐catch estimators of density, distribution, and detection function parameters are found to be unbiased or nearly unbiased in all scenarios considered. This gain comes at the cost of higher variance. If there is no interest in interpreting the detection function parameters themselves, and if density is expected to be fairly constant over the survey region, then the multicatch estimator performs well with single‐catch traps. However if accurate estimation of the detection function is of interest, or if density is expected to vary substantially in space, then there is merit in using the single‐catch estimator when trap saturation is above about 60%. The estimator's performance is improved if care is taken to place traps so as to span the range of variables that affect animal distribution. As a single‐catch likelihood with unknown capture times remains intractable for now, researchers using single‐catch traps should aim to incorporate timing devices with their traps.     

Assessing the value of the Garden Moth Scheme citizen science dataset: how does light trap type affect catch?

Done well, citizen science projects can gather datasets of a size and scope far larger than would be possible using professional researchers. This study uses data gathered in Britain by the Garden Moth Scheme (GMS). Participants run garden light traps for at least 26 weeks a year and complete garden questionnaires detailing garden habitat and nearby landscape features. We used data exploration and generalised linear modelling (GLM) to investigate whether the data can be used to generate reliable research findings, testing the effect of moth light trap type on moth catch. Robinson traps, then Skinner traps, then Heath traps were found to catch the highest abundance and diversity of moths. Mercury vapour bulbs, then blended light bulbs, then actinic bulbs collected the highest abundance and diversity of moths. The GMS dataset can be used to generate useful and reliable research findings, and can be used in the future to investigate temporal and spatial trends in moth assemblage. Under international law, the use of mercury vapour bulbs will be phased out in coming years, leading to changes in the way moth assemblages are sampled. Information on the relative efficacy of different bulb types will aid the analysis of long‐term moth datasets after these changes.     

Development of an exposure-free bednet trap for sampling Afrotropical malaria vectors

An exposure-free bednet trap (the 'Mbita trap') for sampling of Afrotropical malaria vectors was developed during preliminary studies of mosquito behaviour around human-occupied bednets. Its mosquito sampling efficiency was compared to the CDC miniature light-trap and human landing catches under semi-field conditions in a screen-walled greenhouse using laboratory-reared Anopheles gambiae Giles sensu stricto (Diptera: Culicidae). When compared in a competitive manner (side by side), the Mbita trap caught 4.1+/-0.5 times as many mosquitoes as the CDC light-trap, hung beside an occupied bednet (P < 0.000 1) and 43.2+/-10% the number caught by human landing catches (P < 0.0001). The ratio of Mbita trap catches to those of the CDC light trap increased with decreasing mosquito density. Mosquito density did not affect the ratio of Mbita trap to human-landing catches. In a non-competitive comparison (each method independent of the other), the Mbita trap caught 89.7+/-10% the number of mosquitoes caught by human landing catches (P < 0.0001) and 1.2+/-0.1 times more mosquitoes than the CDC light trap (P = 0.0008). Differences in Mbita trap performance relative to the human landing catch under noncompetitive vs. competitive conditions were explained by the rate at which each method captured mosquitoes. Such bednet traps do not expose people to potentially infectious mosquito bites and operate passively all night without the need for skilled personnel. This trap is specifically designed to catch host-seeking mosquitoes only and may be an effective, sensitive, user-friendly and economic alternative to existing methods for mosquito surveillance in Africa.     

Phenology and flight periodicity of Sirex noctilio (Hymenoptera: Siricidae) in central New York,U.S.A.

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Gargoor trap fishery in Kuwait,catch rate and species composition

Kuwait's fisheries include shrimp trawlers, gill nets, intertidal stake nets, and demersal fish traps, known locally as gargoor. The gargoor fishery used to be the nation's most important in terms of value and landings volume, but declines in catch rates have reduced its ranking. This paper describes the status of the gargoor artisanal fishery. The main landings place was sampled for catch and effort, and fish length‐frequency data from May 2003 to December 2005. The catch rate, monthly average number of boats operating, and the number of gargoor cleared were estimated for dhow boats fishing in Kuwait's waters and international waters, and speed boats operating in Kuwait waters only. Over the duration of the study period, the speedboat catch rates were higher than those of dhow boats, i.e., 3.7 kg/trap‐pull vs. 2.6 and 2.5 kg/trap‐pull for dhows fishing in Kuwait's territorial waters and international waters, respectively. The grouper, Epinephelus coicodes, was the main species captured, contributing 19.3% and 17.8% to the dhow catch in Kuwait waters and international waters, respectively. The catch rates by dhow boats declined from an average of 4.7 kg/trap‐pull in 2003 to 2.7 kg/trap‐pull in 2005 representing a 41% decrease. If this decreasing catch rate trend continues, then fishing effort should be reduced to allow stock recovery. It is recommended that the number of gargoor fished in Kuwaiti waters should be limited and that several no‐fishing zones be established to ensure the minimum spawning stock biomass and preserve biodiversity for all fisheries.     

Determination of kerosene and #2 diesel in soil by purge and trap vs. extraction procedure

Low‐ to medium‐boiling‐point hydrocarbons, which include the full range of gasoline (C4‐C12), are routinely analyzed by using headspace or purge and trap with gas chromatography techniques. Some of the higher boiling point hydrocarbons, including diesel motor fuels (C9‐C22) and kerosene (C10‐C16), are normally analyzed by using sonication extraction with gas chromatography technique. However, since both of these groups are medium range in numbers of hydrocarbons as well as boiling point, analysis by elevated temperature purge and trap (85°C) may prove to be an accurate and time‐saving method of analysis. Testing by purge and trap may prove successful for both kerosene (b.p. 175 to 328°C) and #2 diesel (b.p. 179 to 360°C). This research is designed to compare data using the high‐temperature purge and trap technique to the data obtained by the sonication extraction technique.     

Tabanid Flies (Diptera: Tabanidae) of the Northern Part of Gyeonggi Province, Republic of Korea

Tabanid flies were surveyed using New Jersey light traps and Mosquito Magnet® traps at US Army installations and training sites in the northern part of Gyeonggi Province, Republic of Korea. A total of 344 tabanid flies, comprising 14 species and 5 genera, were collected from June to August during 2003‐2004. Dominant species were Chrysops vanderwulpi (57.3%), Haematopota sinensis (29.1%), Haematopota koryoensis (4.4%) and Tabanus mandarinus (2.3%). Mosquito Magnet traps that generated CO₂through the combustion of propane gas were nearly 6 times more effective in collecting tabanid flies than New Jersey light traps. Based on Mosquito Magnet trap collections, peak populations occurred from mid‐June to early July.;     

Avoiding verisimilitude when modelling ecological responses to climate change: the influence of weather conditions on trapping efficiency in European badgers (Meles meles)

The signal for climate change effects can be abstruse; consequently, interpretations of evidence must avoid verisimilitude, or else misattribution of causality could compromise policy decisions. Examining climatic effects on wild animal population dynamics requires ability to trap, observe or photograph and to recapture study individuals consistently. In this regard, we use 19 years of data (1994–2012), detailing the life histories on 1179 individual European badgers over 3288 (re‐) trapping events, to test whether trapping efficiency was associated with season, weather variables (both contemporaneous and time lagged), body‐condition index (BCI) and trapping efficiency (TE). PCA factor loadings demonstrated that TE was affected significantly by temperature and precipitation, as well as time lags in these variables. From multi‐model inference, BCI was the principal driver of TE, where badgers in good condition were less likely to be trapped. Our analyses exposed that this was enacted mechanistically via weather variables driving BCI, affecting TE. Notably, the very conditions that militated for poor trapping success have been associated with actual survival and population abundance benefits in badgers. Using these findings to parameterize simulations, projecting best‐/worst‐case scenario weather conditions and BCI resulted in 8.6% ± 4.9 SD difference in seasonal TE, leading to a potential 55.0% population abundance under‐estimation under the worst‐case scenario; 38.6% over‐estimation under the best case. Interestingly, simulations revealed that while any single trapping session might prove misrepresentative of the true population abundance, due to weather effects, prolonging capture–mark–recapture studies under sub‐optimal conditions decreased the accuracy of population estimates significantly. We also use these projection scenarios to explore how weather could impact government‐led trapping of badgers in the UK, in relation to TB management. We conclude that population monitoring must be calibrated against the likelihood that weather conditions could be altering trap success directly, and therefore biasing model design.     

Efficiency of Malaise traps and colored pan traps for collecting flower visiting insects from three forested ecosystems

Pan and Malaise traps have been used widely to sample insect abundance and diversity, but no studies have compared their performance for sampling pollinators in forested ecosystems. Malaise trap design and color of pan traps are important parameters that influence insect pollinator catches. We compared pan trap (blue, yellow, white, and red) and Malaise trap catches from forests in three physiographic provinces (Piedmont, Coastal Plain, and Blue Ridge) of the southeastern United States. Similarities in trap performance between sites were observed with blue pan traps being most effective overall. Our results showed that various pollinator groups preferred certain pan trap colors and that adding color to Malaise traps influenced insect pollinator catches. However, pan traps generally caught more pollinators than Malaise traps. Because of their low cost and simplicity, using several colors of pan traps is an effective way to sample relative abundance and species richness of flower-visiting insects.     

Different growth trends of whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) forms in the northern Baltic Sea

The sea growth of two whitefish forms, anadromous (Coregonus lavaretus lavaretus) and sea‐spawning (Coregonus lavaretus widegreni), was analysed using samples collected from the commercial sea catch in the Gulf of Bothnia (GoB) in the northern Baltic Sea during 1998–2014. In the GoB area, these two forms are possible to identify because the gill‐raker number and size at maturity vary between forms. The growth rate of the forms is linked to their feeding area. Sea‐spawning whitefish, which has a feeding migration near its home site, was shorter in the northern GoB (66°N–64°N) at the ages of 3–11 than those in the southern GoB (64°N–60°30′N). In the data, most whitefish were caught with gill nets in the GoB. The mesh sizes of gill nets capturing the anadromous form were mostly 35–45 mm, while those capturing the sea‐spawning form were <35 mm in the northern GoB. It is likely that the different growth trends for small and large whitefish were connected with differences in their recruitment for fishing. The length of anadromous females at the age of four sea years increased significantly, but the length of six‐year‐old anadromous female whitefish decreased over the catch years from 1998–2014. In contrast, the length of slow‐growing sea‐spawning whitefish of six years or older increased significantly in relation to the catch year in the gill‐net catch. The increase in the growth of young age groups in both forms was probably associated with the increasing temperature and the low fishing pressure on small fish. The decreasing age at capture for both forms and the depression of the mean size of old anadromous whitefish are signs of high fishing pressure with a high gill‐net effort that selectively removes the largest and oldest individuals of both forms.     

Patterns of endemism in south-eastern Pacific benthic polychaetes of the Chilean coast

Aim In this study we evaluate patterns of endemism for benthic polychaete species along the southeastern Pacific coast of Chile. Our goals were (1) to describe latitudinal gradients of endemism and identify areas of high endemism, (2) to evaluate the effect of biogeographical limits on endemism patterns, and (3) to evaluate indirectly the role played by evolutionary dynamics on patterns of endemism. Location South‐eastern Pacific coast of Chile, ranging from Arica (18° S) to Cape Horn (56° S). Methods We used a list of 178 species of endemic, shallow benthic polychaetes to evaluate patterns of endemism. Parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE) and the endemism index (EI) were used to evaluate hierarchical relationships of endemism between different latitudinal bands, and to identify areas with high degrees of endemism and differences in endemism. We evaluated the effect of biogeographical limits on endemic polychaete fauna by testing for the existence of geometric constraints (mid‐domain effect). The role of evolutionary dynamics on latitudinal patterns of endemism was evaluated with nestedness analysis (NA) using the temperature index. Results The PAE analysis indicated two large, separate areas of endemism: (1) the northern area between 18° S and 38° S, and (2) the southern area between 39° S and 56° S. The endemism index showed a maximum value (32 species) around 39°–41° S. Species‐richness curves of each 3° band of latitude showed a clear mid‐domain effect (69%), but the two maximum points of species richness at mid‐latitudes (36° S to 38° S and 39° S to 41° S) did not correspond to the mid‐domain peak in species richness, presenting a greater number of species than expected by the mid‐domain effect. The nestedness analysis showed that the number of genera reaches a maximum of 70 at mid‐latitudes (36°–41° S), decreasing towards both the northern and southern areas. The spatial distribution of the entire data set of endemic species showed a nested pattern (T° = 24.5°, P < 0.0001). Main conclusions Our results strongly support the existence of a latitudinal gradient of endemism for benthic polychaete species along the Chilean coast. The shape of this gradient is clearly non‐linear, with a marked peak of endemism occurring at mid‐latitudes (36°–41° S, endemism hotspot), which also corresponds to a peak in species richness. Furthermore, this hotspot is the midpoint separating two distinct areas of endemism to the north and south. We suggest that the observed pattern of endemism for benthic polychaete taxa of the Chilean coast can be explained by a combination of geometric constraints and historical mechanisms, such as the processes that affected the Chilean coast during the Neogene (e.g. ENSO, oxygen minimum zone, glaciations).     

Sex-Age Selectivity and Correlates of Capture for Winter-Trapped White-Tailed Deer

ANDREW J. TYRE⁷ ABSTRACT Despite the common use of Clover traps to capture white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), little published information exists quantifying trap success, trap selectivity (sex-age selection), or weather correlates of trap success. We quantified these relationships using white-tailed deer data from 3 study sites in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA, during winters 2001–2007. We captured 610 deer in 8,569 trap-nights; pooled capture success was 0.07 deer/trap-night, although site-year success varied from 0.021 to 0.086. We compared sex-age classes (fawn [pooled by sex], ad M, ad F) captured with sex-age classes estimated to be available on each study site during each capture season. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to construct 19 a priori models to describe probability of capture success as a function of weather covariates (daily min. temp [° C], daily snowfall [cm], daily snow depth [cm]), Julian day, site, and year. General selection patterns included fawns captured more than expected and adult males captured less than expected; adult females were generally neutrally selected. The quasi-Akaike's Information Criterion best model within our set was described by the global model without Julian day and contained all 3 weather covariates and site-year effects. Our model provided some evidence that as daily snow depth increased, probability of capture increased; the positive effect of daily snowfall on capture probability was dependent on decreasing daily minimum temperature. Our results may be used to increase efficacy of deer capture programs by researchers and managers through informed decision-making about when to allocate effort (e.g., if extreme winter weather conditions are predicted) and when to consider alternative methods (e.g., if capture of ad M is an objective).     

A sex pheromone‐baited trapping system for management of sweetpotato weevil,Cylas formicarius (Coleoptera: Brentidae)

A potent male attractant of sweetpotato weevil helps in monitoring and control of sweetpotato weevil in many production areas around the world. At present, it has not been used in Malaysia. Cost of the components of a trapping system is a major constraint in the adoption of male lure‐baited trapping by growers in Malaysia. Seven field trapping experiments were conducted from February 2013 to November 2015 as part of an effort to develop a simple, easy to construct, cost‐effective and efficient sex pheromone‐baited trap acceptable for use by farmers in Malaysia for monitoring and control of sweetpotato weevil (Cylas formicarius Fabricius). Overall, sweetpotato weevil trap catch was significantly affected by the number of windows in the trap, the killing agent used in the trap and the position of the trap relative to sweetpotato foliage, while trap size and trap colour did not significantly affect trap catch. Trap catch was best in plastic pole traps made from polyethylene terephthalate, with four window opening to facilitate weevil entry, with detergent solution as a killing agent and with the trap positioned from 0 to 40 cm above the crop canopy level. In a comparison study with commercial trap designs, sex pheromone‐baited plastic pole traps caught 60%–78% more weevils than were caught in sex pheromone‐baited delta traps, wing traps or unitraps. Optimization of trap characteristics is important for improving the performance of pheromone‐baited traps for use in population monitoring or mass‐trapping efforts to minimize crop damage by sweetpotato weevil infestation.     

Trap catches of the small brown planthopper, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Laodelphax striatellus</Emphasis> (Fallén) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in northern Kyushu district,Japan in relation to weather conditions

Abstract  

The pattern of overseas immigration of Laodelphax striatellus (Fallén) into northern Kyushu district in relation to weather conditions was analyzed using trap catch data, weather data, and backward trajectory analysis. The investigation covered the period May 21 to June 10 of each year between 2000 and 2009. One peak trap catch was recorded on May 27–28, 2006 and was associated with strong westerly winds at 850 and 925 hPa levels to the south of a cold vortex that passed over the southern part of the Korean peninsula. The backward trajectory analysis suggested Jiangsu Province, China, as possible migration source. Another peak catch on June 5, 2008 has already been reported as an overseas migration from Jiangsu Province, China. This study revealed that a cold vortex passing the southern Korean peninsula was also associated with insect migration in 2008. Thus, there is evidence of at least 2 overseas migrations from Jiangsu Province, China, over a 10-year period that coincided with strong westerly winds in the lower atmosphere that were associated with cold vortices.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN KURIL SEALS AND SALMON TRAP NET FISHERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN HOKKAIDO

An annual average of 163 Kuril seals was found dead in two years in salmon trap nets along the coastal waters of the Nemuro Peninsula and adjacent areas. The seal-caused damage to the total salmon catch at the salmon trap nets was concentrated in some of them, particularly No. 27, where seals killed or injured 5.1% of the catch in 1982, and 1.8% in 1983. Based on the proportion of Kuril seals among the dead seals in the trap nets, it was estimated that Kuril seals damaged 4.7% of the total salmon catch at No. 27 in 1982, and 1.7% in 1983. Not all seals that entered the trap net drowned; some killed or damaged salmon, and then escaped.     

Abundance of Coffee berry borer in feral,abandoned and managed coffee on Hawaii Island

Coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari), the most damaging insect pest of coffee worldwide, was first detected on Hawaii Island in 2010. Poorly managed, abandoned and feral coffee sites on the island have since been thought to harbour coffee berry borer (CBB) populations, which then negatively impact neighbouring coffee farms. In the present study, we sought to quantify CBB abundance in these sites, which vary in management intensity and vegetation structure and diversity. We collected data on trap catch as a measure of CBB flight activity, fruit production and fruit infestation by CBB in eight well-managed farms and sites that were either poorly managed, abandoned or feral (wild) coffee. Sites were sampled bi-weekly over a period of 2 years from 2016 to 2017. We found that CBB flight activity was significantly higher in poorly managed sites relative to abandoned and feral sites, but was not significantly different from well-managed sites. Coffee production in well-managed farms was significantly higher than in abandoned and feral sites, but was not significantly different from poorly managed farms. CBB infestation in poorly managed sites was significantly higher than that observed in well-managed, abandoned and feral sites. We estimated an average load of 11–25 CBB per branch at poorly managed sites, compared to 3–9 per branch at well-managed sites, 1–16 per branch at abandoned sites and 1–3 per branch at feral sites. Our findings suggest that poorly managed sites should be prioritized for implementation of CBB control measures as part of a landscape-level integrated pest management (IPM) programme.     

Distribution and dynamics of Japanese beetles along the Indianapolis Airport perimeter and the influence of land use on trap catch

As part of a program to minimize the accidental transportation of Japanese beetles (Popillia japonica) through cargo aircraft to areas where they are not established, a 4-yr trapping project was initiated to study the relative distribution and dynamics of the beetles along a trap line around the Indianapolis International Airport. Land use influence on beetle abundance (trap catch) was assessed using a geographic information system. Trap catch was consistently high in some locations and low in others. In general, high trap catches occurred near agronomic land planted with corn or soybeans, which are both preferred hosts of adult beetles. Low trap catches generally occurred in areas lacking preferred host plants. The amount of agronomic land within 500 m of the traps was always positively correlated with trap catch. Average trap catches were highly correlated by location from year to year, indicating stability of the relative distribution of the beetles along the trap line. Because high trap catches consistently occurred in the same locations, it can be inferred that trapping can be an effective method to monitor Japanese beetle populations. Taking airport-owned agronomic land out of corn and soybean production near the cargo terminals may reduce beetle activity in these areas.     

The Relationship between Red Cod, Pseudophycis Bachus, Recruitment and Environmental Variables in New Zealand

This paper examines the relationship between red cod, Pseudophycis bachus, recruitment and selected environmental variables. Commercial catch data of red cod were used as indices of relative recruitment strength for New Zealand fish stocks (east coast South Island, RCO 3; west coast South Island, RCO 7). Analysis of catch per unit effort (CPUE) supports the assumption that fluctuations in commercial catches reflect changes in abundance resulting from variable recruitment. Catch was assessed against 34 environmental variables that included the Southern Oscillation index, sea surface temperature, weather types, wind speed and direction, and river flows. Lagged correlations were calculated between annual commercial catch and averaged environmental data. Variables most strongly correlated with commercial catch were included in regression analyses. Regression models were calculated using all available data in its raw form, and after application of a logarithmic transformation. Robustness, and forecast skill was tested using a repeated leave-one-out procedure. The strongest correlations between commercial catch and explanatory variables for both RCO 3 and RCO 7 were consistently with sea surface temperature over a wide range of time lags followed by frequencies of southwest and northeast flow patterns. The correlations generally operated in the sense that colder is better: negative correlations (–0.75) with sea surface temperature, positive with the occurrence of cool southwest weather types, negative with the occurrence of warm northeast weather types. The maximum magnitude of the correlation occurs at 14-month lag for both fisheries, corresponding to the late spring/summer of the year prior to the catch year. There were often secondary maxima in the magnitude of the correlations two or three years prior to the catch year. The commercial fishery is made up largely of two and three-year-old fish, implying that juvenile fish (age one year) are most sensitive to environmental conditions, but egg, embryo and larva periods may also be affected. Regression analyses suggest that two-predictor regressions were unstable, with often large decreases in explained variance when applied to the independent years, however, at the lags when relationships are strongest (around 14 months), the explained variance on the left-out years remains high. Fluctuations in red cod landings are dependent on sea surface temperature, controlled largely by climatic variability, including El Niño and La Niña events. For short-lived species such as red cod, fluctuations in annual landings are commonplace and analyses of environmental data may be useful in predicting catches in subsequent years.