Response of maize biomass and soil water fluxes on elevated CO2 and drought—From field experiments to process‐based simulations

The rising concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is known to increase the total aboveground biomass of several C3 crops, whereas C4 crops are reported to be hardly affected when water supply is sufficient. However, a free‐air carbon enrichment (FACE) experiment in Braunschweig, Germany, in 2007 and 2008 resulted in a 25% increased biomass of the C4 crop maize under restricted water conditions and elevated CO₂ (550 ppm). To project future yields of maize under climate change, an accurate representation of the effects of eCO₂ and drought on biomass and soil water conditions is essential. Current crop growth models reveal limitations in simulations of maize biomass under eCO₂ and limited water supply. We use the coupled process‐based hydrological‐plant growth model Catchment Modeling Framework‐Plant growth Modeling Framework to overcome this limitation. We apply the coupled model to the maize‐based FACE experiment in Braunschweig that provides robust data for the investigation of combined CO₂ and drought effects. We approve hypothesis I that CO₂ enrichment has a small direct‐fertilizing effect with regard to the total aboveground biomass of maize and hypothesis II that CO₂ enrichment decreases water stress and leads to higher yields of maize under restricted water conditions. Hypothesis III could partly be approved showing that CO₂ enrichment decreases the transpiration of maize, but does not raise soil moisture, while increasing evaporation. We emphasize the importance of plant‐specific CO₂ response factors derived by use of comprehensive FACE data. By now, only one FACE experiment on maize is accomplished applying different water levels. For the rigorous testing of plant growth models and their applicability in climate change studies, we call for datasets that go beyond single criteria (only yield response) and single effects (only elevated CO₂).     

Seven years of carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen fertilization and plant diversity influence arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in a grassland ecosystem

? We tested the prediction that the abundance and diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are influenced by resource availability and plant community composition by examining the joint effects of carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) enrichment, nitrogen (N) fertilization and plant diversity on AM fungi. ? We quantified AM fungal spores and extramatrical hyphae in 176 plots after 7 yr of treatment with all combinations of ambient or elevated CO(2) (368 or 560 ppm), with or without N fertilization (0 or 4 g Nm(-2) ), and one (monoculture) or 16 host plant species (polyculture) in the BioCON field experiment at Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve, Minnesota, USA. ? Extramatrical hyphal lengths were increased by CO(2) enrichment, whereas AM spore abundance decreased with N fertilization. Spore abundance, morphotype richness and extramatrical hyphal lengths were all greater in monoculture plots. A structural equation model showed AM fungal biovolume was most influenced by CO(2) enrichment, plant community composition and plant richness, whereas spore richness was most influenced by fungal biovolume, plant community composition and plant richness. ? Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi responded to differences in host community and resource availability, suggesting that mycorrhizal functions, such as carbon sequestration and soil stability, will be affected by global change.     

What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2

Free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) experiments allow study of the effects of elevated [CO(2)] on plants and ecosystems grown under natural conditions without enclosure. Data from 120 primary, peer-reviewed articles describing physiology and production in the 12 large-scale FACE experiments (475-600 ppm) were collected and summarized using meta-analytic techniques. The results confirm some results from previous chamber experiments: light-saturated carbon uptake, diurnal C assimilation, growth and above-ground production increased, while specific leaf area and stomatal conductance decreased in elevated [CO(2)]. There were differences in FACE. Trees were more responsive than herbaceous species to elevated [CO(2)]. Grain crop yields increased far less than anticipated from prior enclosure studies. The broad direction of change in photosynthesis and production in elevated [CO(2)] may be similar in FACE and enclosure studies, but there are major quantitative differences: trees were more responsive than other functional types; C(4) species showed little response; and the reduction in plant nitrogen was small and largely accounted for by decreased Rubisco. The results from this review may provide the most plausible estimates of how plants in their native environments and field-grown crops will respond to rising atmospheric [CO(2)]; but even with FACE there are limitations, which are also discussed.     

Impairment of C(4) photosynthesis by drought is exacerbated by limiting nitrogen and ameliorated by elevated [CO(2)] in maize

Predictions of future ecosystem function and food supply from staple C(4) crops, such as maize, depend on elucidation of the mechanisms by which environmental change and growing conditions interact to determine future plant performance. To test the interactive effects of elevated [CO(2)], drought, and nitrogen (N) supply on net photosynthetic CO(2) uptake (A) in the world's most important C(4) crop, maize (Zea mays) was grown at ambient [CO(2)] (～385 ppm) and elevated [CO(2)] (550 ppm) with either high N supply (168 kg N ha(-1) fertilizer) or limiting N (no fertilizer) at a site in the US Corn Belt. A mid-season drought was not sufficiently severe to reduce yields, but caused significant physiological stress, with reductions in stomatal conductance (up to 57%), A (up to 44%), and the in vivo capacity of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (up to 58%). There was no stimulation of A by elevated [CO(2)] when water availability was high, irrespective of N availability. Elevated [CO(2)] delayed and relieved both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations to A during the drought. Limiting N supply exacerbated stomatal and non-stomatal limitation to A during drought. However, the effects of limiting N and elevated [CO(2)] were additive, so amelioration of stress by elevated [CO(2)] did not differ in magnitude between high N and limiting N supply. These findings provide new understanding of the limitations to C(4) photosynthesis that will occur under future field conditions of the primary region of maize production in the world.     

二氧化碳浓度增高对稻、麦品质影响研究进展

作物品质的形成是品种遗传特性和环境条件综合作用的结果.一般认为大气中CO₂浓度增高将对作物品质产生重要影响.本文分别从蛋白质与氮含量、微量元素以及其他品质性状等3个方面综述了国内外关于CO₂浓度增高对水稻、小麦品质影响的研究进展,强调了该领域研究的必要性和紧迫性,并提出了研究的重点内容及主要方向.主要包括：大气中CO₂浓度增高对水稻、小麦品质的直接影响及品种间的差异;大气中CO₂浓度增高及其与其它气候因子协同作用对水稻、小麦品质的综合影响及其指标量化;大气中CO₂浓度增高及气候变化对水稻、小麦品质形成过程的影响机理;适应CO₂浓度增高的水稻、小麦品质改良育种的方向与策略;适应CO₂浓度增高的水稻、小麦品质改良的综合生产技术体系和分子标记及转基因技术在水稻、小麦品质改良育种方面的应用.     

长期施肥和不同生态条件下我国作物产量可持续性特征

采用产量可持续性指数（SYI）法,研究了我国不同生态条件下20个长期试验点8个肥料处理的水稻、玉米和小麦产量的可持续性.结果表明：作物SYI值因施肥、作物种类和水热因子不同而呈显著差异.长期不施肥（CK）条件下,水稻、玉米和小麦的SYI值较低,分别为0.55、0.44和0.43;施肥尤其是NPK化肥配施有机肥可显著提高作物产量的可持续性,水稻、玉米和小麦的SYI值分别为0.66、0.58和0.57;单施N肥或NK肥的玉米和小麦的SYI值在0.36～0.47.SYI值大于0.55表明可持续性较好,小于0.45表明可持续性差.经纬度和气象因子对作物SYI也有不同程度的影响,3种作物不施肥时,水稻SYI变异较小,与各因子间没有显著相关性,玉米SYI变异最大且与各因子间存在显著的相关关系,小麦介于两者之间.因此,NPK配施有机肥有利于作物高产稳产,是维持系统可持续性的最优施肥模式.     

Effects of free air carbon dioxide enrichment and drought stress on the feed value of maize silage fed to sheep at different thermal regimes

Information about the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and drought on the feed value of maize silage and interactions with the thermal environment during feeding is limited. A free air carbon dioxide enrichment facility was operated in a maize field to generate an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm. Drought was induced by the exclusion of precipitation in one half of all experimental plots. Plants were harvested, chopped and ensiled. In a balance experiment on sheep, the nutrient digestibility was determined for three climatic treatments (temperate, temperature humidity index (THI) 57-63; mild heat, THI 68-71; severe heat, THI 75-80). The CO2 concentration and drought did not alter the crude nutrient content of silage dry matter (DM) or nutrient and organic matter (OM) digestibility. Drought increased the concentration of deoxynivalenol (DON, p < 0.001). The drought-associated increase of DON was reduced by CO2 enrichment (p = 0.003). The lowest digestibility of acid detergent fibre (p = 0.024) and neutral detergent fibre (p = 0.005) was observed during the coldest climate. OM digestibility increased during mild heat (p = 0.023). This study did not indicate considerable alterations of the feed value of maize silage due to increased atmospheric CO2 and drought. Enriched CO2 may decrease DON contaminations during drought. The thermal environment during the balance experiment did not interact with feeding maize silage grown under elevated CO2, but may affect cell wall and OM digestibility.     

The effect of free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) and soil nitrogen availability on the photosynthetic capacity of wheat

A simple system for free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) was recently developed and it is here briefly described. Such a MiniFACE system allowed the elevation of CO₂ concentration of small field plots avoiding the occurrence of large spatial and temporal fluctuations. A CO₂ enrichment field experiment was conducted in Italy in the season 1993–1994 with wheat (cv. Super-dwarf Mercia). A randomized experimental design was used with the treatment combination CO₂ × soil N, replicated twice. Gas exchange measurements showed that photosynthetic capacity was significantly decreased in plants exposed to elevated CO₂ and grown under nitrogen deficiency. Photosynthetic acclimation was, in this case, due to the occurrence of reduced rates of rubP saturated and rubP regeneration limited photosynthesis. Gas exchange measurements did not instead reveal any significant effect of elevated CO₂ on the photosynthetic capacity of leaves of plants well fertilized with nitrogen, in spite of a transitory negative effect on rubP regeneration limited photosynthesis that was detected to occur in the central part of a day with high irradiance. It is concluded that the levels of nitrogen fertilization will play a substantial role in modulating CO₂ fertilization effects on growth and yields of wheat crops under the scenario of future climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (?24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by ?21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by ?45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (?15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.     

减氮施肥对春玉米-晚稻生产系统碳足迹的影响

随着对气候变化和粮食安全的的日益认识,低碳农业引起了人们的广泛关注.低碳农业的研究需要综合考虑作物产量和温室气体排放,改进氮肥管理可能有助于减缓作物生产系统的温室气体排放,同时实现对作物稳产甚至高产的需求.本试验利用生命周期法研究了不同施氮量(150、225、300 kg N·hm^-2)对春玉米-晚稻轮作系统碳足迹的影响.结果表明: 随着氮肥用量增加,两季作物生产过程中温室气体和碳足迹增加.在春玉米生产过程中,氮肥生产和施用引起的温室气体排放对碳足迹贡献最大,占36.2%～50.2%;而在晚稻生产中,甲烷的排放贡献最大,占42.8%～48.0%,并且随氮肥用量增加甲烷排放增加.当氮肥施用量减少25%(225 kg N·hm^-2)和50%(150 kg N·hm^-2)时,春玉米生产的温室气体排放分别下降了21.9%和44.3%,碳足迹分别下降了20.3%和39.1%;晚稻生产的温室气体排放分别下降了12.3%和20.4%,碳足迹分别降低了13.7%和16.7%.氮肥减量对春玉米产量无显著影响,而晚稻产量在225 kg N·hm^-2施肥量下最高.因此,春玉米氮肥用量降低至150 kg N·hm^-2和晚稻氮肥用量降低至225 kg N·hm^-2不仅能够保持作物高产,而且还能大幅度降低作物系统的碳足迹.     

An independent method of deriving the carbon dioxide fertilization effect in dry conditions using historical yield data from wet and dry years

Accurate estimates of the fertilization effect that elevated carbon dioxide [CO₂] has on crop yields are valuable for estimation of future crop production, yet there is still some controversy over these estimates due to possible CO₂‐by‐water‐status interactions in chamber studies and the difficulty of conducting field experiments with elevated [CO₂]. This study presents a new method to estimate the CO₂ fertilization effect (CFE) in dry conditions (CFE_dry), based on a combination of historical yield and climatic data and field experiments that do not require elevated [CO₂]. It was estimated that approximately 50 years of increasing [CO₂] (i.e., a 73 ppm increase) resulted in a 9% and 14% improvement of yield in dry conditions for maize and soybean, respectively, which are similar to estimates derived from free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) studies. The main source of uncertainty in this approach relates to differential effects of technology trends such as new cultivars in wet vs. dry years. Estimates of this technology–water interaction can be refined by further experimentation under ambient [CO₂], offering a cost‐effective path for improving CFE estimates. The results should prove useful for modeling future yield impacts of climate change, and the approach could be used to derive estimates for other species using relatively simple yield trials.     

中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施

东北、华北和西北50a来的平均气温增幅高于全国平均水平,气候变暖明显,尤其冬季增温最显著。区域增暖的极端最低气温远比极端最高气温的贡献大。东北、华北大部、西北东部降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少20—40mm,尤其春夏季减少最明显。这种趋势一直延续到20世纪90年代以后,干旱化趋势非常突出。在综述我国北方现代气候变化基本特征是暖干化的基础上,重点阐述了喜凉作物冬小麦、春小麦、马铃薯和喜温作物水稻、玉米、谷子、糜子等7种主要粮食作物的生长发育、品种熟性、种植区域与面积、产量与品质等对气候暖干化的响应特征。揭示了气候暖干化使春播作物播期提早,苗期生长发育速度加快,营养生长期提前,生殖生长期和全生育期延长;秋作物发育期推迟,生殖生长期和全生长期延长;越冬作物播期推迟,越冬死亡率降低,种植风险减少,春初提前返青,生殖生长期提早,全生育期缩短。使作物适宜种植区域向高纬度高海拔扩展;品种熟性向偏中晚熟高产品种发展;喜温作物和越冬作物以及冷凉气候区的作物种植面积迅速扩大;在旱作区种植不较耐旱的玉米、春小麦等作物种植面积受到制约。对雨养农业区的作物气候产量影响严重,尤其对不够耐旱的小麦和玉米的气候产量受影响最大;对较耐旱的谷子、糜子、马铃薯等影响较轻。从作物属性而言,对喜温作物水稻、玉米和越冬作物冬小麦有利于气候产量提高;对喜凉作物春小麦和马铃薯的气候产量将产生不利影响。同时,提出了从5个方面应对气候暖干化的技术措施,调整作物种植结构,确保粮食生产安全;根据不同气候年型调整各种作物种植比例;针对不同气候区域发展优势作物和配置作物种植格局;采取不同栽培技术和管理模式应对气候变化;采取综合配套技术提髙抵御灾害能力。为粮食作物安全生产和种植结构调整与布局提供科学依据。     

Photosynthesis, productivity, and yield of maize are not affected by open-air elevation of CO2 concentration in the absence of drought

While increasing temperatures and altered soil moisture arising from climate change in the next 50 years are projected to decrease yield of food crops, elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) is predicted to enhance yield and offset these detrimental factors. However, C4 photosynthesis is usually saturated at current [CO2] and theoretically should not be stimulated under elevated [CO2]. Nevertheless, some controlled environment studies have reported direct stimulation of C4 photosynthesis and productivity, as well as physiological acclimation, under elevated [CO2]. To test if these effects occur in the open air and within the Corn Belt, maize (Zea mays) was grown in ambient [CO2] (376 micromol mol(-1)) and elevated [CO2] (550 micromol mol(-1)) using Free-Air Concentration Enrichment technology. The 2004 season had ideal growing conditions in which the crop did not experience water stress. In the absence of water stress, growth at elevated [CO2] did not stimulate photosynthesis, biomass, or yield. Nor was there any CO2 effect on the activity of key photosynthetic enzymes, or metabolic markers of carbon and nitrogen status. Stomatal conductance was lower (-34%) and soil moisture was higher (up to 31%), consistent with reduced crop water use. The results provide unique field evidence that photosynthesis and production of maize may be unaffected by rising [CO2] in the absence of drought. This suggests that rising [CO2] may not provide the full dividend to North American maize production anticipated in projections of future global food supply.     

Global food insecurity. treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields

Predictions of yield for the globe's major grain and legume arable crops suggest that, with a moderate temperature increase, production may increase in the temperate zone, but decline in the tropics. In total, global food supply may show little change. This security comes from inclusion of the direct effect of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, [CO2], which significantly stimulates yield by decreasing photorespiration in C3 crops and transpiration in all crops. Evidence for a large response to [CO2] is largely based on studies made within chambers at small scales, which would be considered unacceptable for standard agronomic trials of new cultivars or agrochemicals. Yet, predictions of the globe's future food security are based on such inadequate information. Free-Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) technology now allows investigation of the effects of rising [CO2] and ozone on field crops under fully open-air conditions at an agronomic scale. Experiments with rice, wheat, maize and soybean show smaller increases in yield than anticipated from studies in chambers. Experiments with increased ozone show large yield losses (20%), which are not accounted for in projections of global food security. These findings suggest that current projections of global food security are overoptimistic. The fertilization effect of CO2 is less than that used in many models, while rising ozone will cause large yield losses in the Northern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, FACE studies have been limited in geographical extent and interactive effects of CO2, ozone and temperature have yet to be studied. Without more extensive study of the effects of these changes at an agronomic scale in the open air, our ever-more sophisticated models will continue to have feet of clay.     

Predicting the impact of changing CO(2) on crop yields: some thoughts on food

Recent breakthroughs in CO(2) fumigation methods using free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) technology have prompted comparisons between FACE experiments and enclosure studies with respect to quantification of the effects of projected atmospheric CO(2) concentrations on crop yields. On the basis of one such comparison, it was argued that model projections of future food supply (some of which are based on older enclosure data) may have significantly overestimated the positive effect of elevated CO(2) concentration on crop yields and, by extension, food security. However, in the comparison, no effort was made to differentiate enclosure study methodologies with respect to maintaining projected CO(2) concentration or to consider other climatic changes (e.g. warming) that could impact crop yields. In this review, we demonstrate that relative yield stimulations in response to future CO(2) concentrations obtained using a number of enclosure methodologies are quantitatively consistent with FACE results for three crops of global importance: rice (Oryza sativa), soybean (Glycine max) and wheat (Triticum aestivum). We suggest, that instead of focusing on methodological disparities per se, improved projections of future food supply could be achieved by better characterization of the biotic/abiotic uncertainties associated with projected changes in CO(2) and climate and incorporation of these uncertainties into current crop models.     

CO2 浓度升高对水稻根系分泌物的影响——总有机碳、甲酸和乙酸含量变化

在大气ＣＯ２浓度升高条件下采用水培方法对水稻根系生长及根系分泌物进行了初步研究,ＣＯ２浓度倍增对水培水稻的根系生长具有明显的促进作用,约为７０％,但是根冠比却有所降低,水稻根系单位干重总有机碳,乙酸以及甲酸的释放量在ＣＯ２浓度倍增条件下变化不明显,但是单株奶系分泌物总量,乙酸以及甲酸的释放总量在ＣＯ２倍增处理下明显增加,推测水稻根系分泌物的增加是高浓度ＣＯ２下稻田ＣＨ４排放增加的重要原因之一。     

Soil fungal cellobiohydrolase I gene (cbhI) composition and expression in a loblolly pine plantation under conditions of elevated atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen fertilization

The simultaneous increase of atmospheric CO(2) and nitrogen (N) deposition to terrestrial ecosystems is predicted to alter plant productivity and, consequently, to change the amount and quality of above- and belowground carbon entering forest soils. It is not known how such changes will impact the composition and function of soil fungal communities that play a key role in degrading complex carbon. We sequenced the fungal cellobiohydrolase I gene (cbhI) from soil DNA and cDNA to compare the richness and composition of resident and expressed cbhI genes at a U.S. Department of Energy free air-carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) site (NC), which had been exposed to elevated atmospheric CO(2) and/or N fertilization treatment for several years. Our results provide evidence that the richness and composition of the cellulolytic fungi surveyed in this study were distinct in the DNA- and cDNA-based gene surveys and were dominated by Basidiomycota that have low or no representation in public databases. The surveys did not detect differences in richness or phylum-level composition of cbhI-containing, cellulolytic fungi that correlated with elevated CO(2) or N fertilization at the time of sampling.     

温度和CO2浓度升高下转Bt水稻种植对土壤活性碳氮和线虫群落的短期影响

全球气候变化下转Bt水稻种植对土壤生态系统的影响仍是未知领域。利用野外开顶式气室(OTC)模拟气候变化,探讨了温度和CO2浓度([CO2])升高后种植转Bt(华恢1号)水稻对土壤活性碳氮和线虫群落的影响。结果表明:(1)温度和[CO2]升高条件下种植转Bt水稻显著影响土壤可溶性碳(DOC)、可溶性氮(DON)和硝态氮(NO-3-N)含量,同时DOC和DON受到升温和[CO2]升高与转Bt水稻的交互影响;在正常温度和[CO2]下,转Bt水稻显著降低了土壤微生物量碳氮含量(MBC、MBN),但在温度和[CO2]升高后转Bt水稻种植使土壤MBC和MBN含量显著高于亲本水稻。(2)在温度和[CO2]升高条件下,转Bt水稻土壤线虫总数呈高于亲本水稻的趋势,植食性线虫的比例随[CO2]和温度升高呈增大的趋势。此外,升温和转Bt水稻种植提高了土壤线虫群落的能流通道指数,而[CO2]升高和转Bt水稻种植则提高了土壤线虫群落的富集指数。总之,在模拟全球气候变化下,种植转Bt水稻在短期内对土壤活性碳氮和线虫群落均产生影响,但短期研究并未发现转Bt水稻种植对土壤生态系统的不利影响。     

开放式空气中CO_2浓度增高(FACE)对水稻生长和发育的影响

人类活动导致的大气和气候变化将极大地改变作物的生长环境,其中最大的一个变化就是大气二氧化碳(CO2)浓度的迅速上升:从工业革命前的平均270μmol/mol上升到目前的381μmol/mol,到2050年至少超过550μmol/mol。FACE(Free-air CO2 enrichment,开放式空气中CO2浓度增高)试验是目前评估未来高浓度CO2对作物生长和产量实际影响的最佳方法。水稻无疑是人类最重要的食物来源,迄今为止人类利用FACE技术开展水稻响应和适应的研究已有10a(19982008年)的历史。以生长发育为主线,首次系统综述了10a水稻FACE试验在该领域的研究成果,总结了FACE情形下高浓度CO2(模拟本世纪中叶大气CO2浓度)对主要供试水稻品种(小区面积大于4m2)光合作用、生育进程、地上部生长、地下部生长、物质分配、籽粒灌浆、产量构成以及倒伏性状等影响的研究进展,比较了FACE与非FACE研究之间以及中国和日本FACE研究(世界上唯一的两个大型水稻FACE研究)之间的异同点。根据研究进展以及当前的技术水平,文章最后提出了该领域的3个优先课题:(1)FACE情形下杂交稻生产力响应高于预期的生物学机制;(2)FACE情形下CO2与主要栽培措施的互作效应;(3)FACE情形下CO2与主要空气污染物臭氧的互作效应。这些响应的机理性解析将有助于从根本上减少人类预测未来粮食安全的不确定性,进而更加有效地制订出应对全球变化的适应策略。     

Impacts of climate change on virtual water content of crops in China

Looming water scarcity and climate change pose big challenges for China's food security. Previous studies have focus on the impacts of climate change either on agriculture or on water resources. Few studies have linked water and agriculture together in the context of climate change, and demonstrated how climate change will affect the amount of water used to produce per unit of crop, or virtual water content (VWC). We used a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model to analyze the current spatial distribution of VWC of various crops in China and the impacts of climate change on VWC in different future scenarios. The results show that C4 crops (e.g. irrigated maize with a VWC of 0.73 m³ kg^− 1 in baseline) generally have a lower VWC than C3 crops (e.g. irrigated wheat with a VWC of 1.1 m³ kg^− 1 in baseline), and the VWC of C4 crops responds less sensitively to the CO₂ concentration change in future climate scenarios. Three general change trends exist for future VWC of crops: continuous decline (for soybean and rice without considering CO₂ concentration changes) and continuous increase (for rice with considering CO₂ concentration changes) and first-decline-then-increase (other crop-scenario combinations). The trends reflect the responses of different crops to changes in precipitation, temperature as well as CO₂ concentration. From south to north along the latitude, there is a high-low-high distribution trend of the aggregated VWC of the crops. Precipitation and temperature changes combined can lead to negative effects on crop yield and higher VWC particularly in the far future e.g. the 2090s, but when CO₂ concentration change is taken into consideration, it is likely that crop yield will increase and crop VWC will decrease for the whole China. Integrated effects of precipitation, temperature and CO₂ concentration changes will benefit agricultural productivity and crop water productivity through all the future periods till the end of the century. Hence, climate change is likely to benefit food security and help alleviate water scarcity in China.