Climate change and pollutant impacts on Scottish vegetation

Summary

By the 2050s the UK is projected to be about 1.6°C warmer, when the atmospheric CO₂ concentration will be 525 ppmv. These changes will have profound effects on the Scottish flora and fauna. Vegetation primary productivity will increase, except in dry regions, and the productivity of upland forest plantations may increase by several Yield Classes. The spread of plant species may be less than expected, but a number of slow-growing ‘stress-tolerant’ species, including montane/alpine species, are likely to be lost. Nitrogen deposited as a result of emission of NO_X from vehicles and NH₃ from agriculture is now a major source of acidity, and problems of acidification and eutrophication are linked. Despite reductions in sulphur emissions, critical loads of acid deposition are likely to be exceeded for soils in most of the Scottish uplands until at least 2005. Critical levels affecting tree growth may be exceeded where forests are in cloud for 10% of the time in areas of the Great Glen. Much of the Scottish uplands receives 25–30 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1, which may be causing change in species composition. Background tropospheric ozone concentrations are increasing. Much of the Scottish uplands experiences mean summer ozone concentrations exceeding those in southern England, but with fewer exceedances of critical levels. However, many crops and some sensitive native species are probably being adversely affected.     

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.     

Evaluating climate change impacts on Alpine floodplain vegetation

This study aims to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate change on Alpine riparian vegetation. Special attention is given to the hydrological factors influencing the establishment, development, and retrogression of riparian vegetation. The study has been carried out in a reach of the upper course of the Drau River (Austria). Long-term effects of climate change on the local riparian vegetation were simulated using a dynamic vegetation model. The model simulates annual time steps, and provides the spatial and quantitative vegetation distribution changes over time. Climate change impacts have been estimated by performing five simulations, spanning 31 years. The first simulation was based on the reference period 1960–1990 while the remaining four were based on the sub-scenarios of the IPCC storyline A1B. Simulation results show consistent variations in both the distributions of quantitative and spatio-temporal vegetation type, primarily due to peak discharges alterations rather than to the mean spring discharges which typically influence the recruitment. Climate change scenarios forecasting an overall increase of peak discharge lead to prevailing retrogression as opposed to successional processes. Conversely, in the climate change scenarios with peak flow reduction, successional processes are dominant and vegetation is predicted to expand into the active channel.     

Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds

Background

Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species'' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species'' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.

Conclusions/Significance

Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.     

Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are based on coarse‐grained climate surfaces or idealized scenarios of uniform warming. These predictions may erroneously estimate the risk of extinction because they neglect to consider spatially heterogenous warming at the landscape scale or identify refugia where species can persist despite unfavourable regional climate. To address this issue, we investigated the heterogeneity in warming that has occurred in a 10 km × 10 km area from 1972 to 2007. We developed estimates by combining long‐term daily observations from a limited number of weather stations with a more spatially comprehensive dataset (40 sites) obtained during 2005–2006. We found that the spatial distribution of warming was greater inland, at lower elevations, away from streams, and at sites exposed to the northwest (NW). These differences corresponded with changes in weather patterns, such as an increasing frequency of hot, dry NW winds. As plant species were biased in the topographic and geographic locations they occupied, these differences meant that some species experienced more warming than others, and are at greater risk from climate change. This species bias could not be detected at coarser scales. The uneven seasonal nature of warming (e.g. more warming in winter, minimums increased more than maximums) means that climate change predictions will vary according to which predictors are selected in species distribution models. Models based on a limited set of predictors will produce erroneous predictions when the correct limiting factor is not selected, and this is difficult to avoid when temperature predictors are correlated because they are produced using elevation‐sensitive interpolations. The results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse‐grained (∼50 km) temperature surfaces, and suggest that the accuracy of this process could be improved by considering regional weather patterns (wind speed, direction, humidity) and topographic exposure to key wind directions.     

The environmental consequences of climatic change on British salt marsh vegetation

The present relationship between sea level and the zonation of salt marsh vegetation is discussed in terms of the salt marshes of the Essex and Kent coasts. These marshes are already decreasing in area as a result of a number of different environmental pressures, including the sinking of the land relative to the sea, at a rate of about 3 mm per year, the result of isostatic adjustment following the last glaciation. Because most British salt marshes are backed by a sea wall the marshes can not respond to rising sea levels by migrating landwards, thus increasing the impact of sea level change. In view of this and of the importance of salt marshes as protection for the sea walls themselves, a conceptual model has been developed, of the likely impact of climate change and the resulting sea level rise, on British salt marsh vegetation. The basis of this approach is the assumption that a rise in sea level will cause the drowning of certain existing vegetation zones and their subsequent replacement by new vegetation types appropriate to the changed sea level. Estimates have been made of the likely impact of rises in sea level of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 metres on the five major vegetation zones identified in East Anglia. The validity of this approach is discussed, together with the likely additive effect of present degenerative changes observed in the Essex salt marshes. It is estimated that over the next 60 years a sea level rise of only 0.5 m, when existing degeneration is taken to account, would cause a loss of over 40% of the present area of salt marsh in Essex and probably also in Kent. These losses would mainly effect the higher salt marsh vegetation zones which would be replaced by pioneer communities. These predictions would be greatly magnified by larger rises in sea level. The wider ecological implication of these changes and some possible remedial measures are considered. These predictions are discussed in relation to the situation in the rest of East Anglia and for Britain as a whole.     

Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.     

Countryside vegetation provides supplementary habitat at the landscape scale for woodland birds in farm mosaics

Agricultural environments have a critical role in the global conservation of biodiversity, but the persistence of forest and woodland-dependent species in these systems is often limited by insufficient habitat. Modified or semi-natural ‘countryside’ (matrix) vegetation is used by many species, but its value at the landscape scale is rarely tested. Do such habitats simply provide additional resources for populations sustained by remnant native vegetation in the landscape, or can they enhance populations over and above that sustained by natural vegetation cover? We surveyed woodland-dependent birds in all types of landscape element in 27 farmland mosaics (100 ha each) in south-eastern Australia. Four measures of wooded vegetation cover were quantified: native vegetation only; and combinations of native vegetation plus scattered trees and/or tree plantations. We used an information-theoretic approach to compare the responses of 30 species to each measure of vegetation cover. Woodland birds were well represented in agricultural mosaics (65% of the regional species-pool); however, almost half were recorded only in mosaics with >20% native vegetation cover. The incidence of 23 species was positively related to measures of wooded cover, indicating increased occurrence in mosaics with a greater cover of wooded vegetation. For 12 species, scattered trees and plantations provided supplementary habitat that enhanced their population status at the landscape scale, beyond that sustained by native vegetation cover. While native vegetation has a critical role for conservation in agricultural environments, careful management of wooded countryside elements (such as scattered trees, tree plantations) offers additional benefits to the woodland-dependent avifauna.     

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3–27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.     

Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean‐type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long‐term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub‐dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff.     

The impact of climate change on birds

Weather is of major importance for the population dynamics of birds, but the implications of climate change have only recently begun to be addressed. There is already compelling evidence that birds have been affected by recent climate changes. This review suggests that although there is a substantial body of evidence for changes in the phenology of birds, particularly of the timing of migration and of nesting, the consequences of these responses for a species' population dynamics is still an area requiring in-depth research. The potential for phenological miscuing (responding inappropriately to climate change, including a lack of response) and for phenological disjunction (in which a bird species becomes out of synchrony with its environment) are beginning to be demonstrated, and are also important areas for further research. The study of climatically induced distributional change is currently at a predictive modelling stage, and will need to develop methods for testing these predictions. Overall, there is a range of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could potentially inhibit adaptation to climate change and these are a high priority for research.     

On the dynamics of vegetation: Patterns of environmental and vegetational change

Summary Ecological succession theory deals with temporal change in biological communities. It consists largely of generalizations based on temporal sequences inferred from spatial ones. The predictive content of the theory is low, since predictions are derived from unconditional trends rather than conditional laws. There exist several conflicting theories purporting to explain successional change, but their empirical vacuousness prevents an assessment on empirical terms. It is argued here that one can nevertheless advocate a theory which accounts for the ubiquity of successional change and explains the most conspicuous characteristics of the successional process, even though it cannot predict the detailed dynamics. Such a theory is derived here from an analysis of adaptive strategies.It is also pointed out that a persistant confusion exists in the ecological literature between what are considered to be the driving forces of successional change, competition and reaction. The former is taken to be an instantaneous type of interaction, whereas the latter has historical (cumulative) aspects. It is not at all obvious whether interactions of the historical type play an important role in driving vegetational change, although it is usually suggested that they do.     

The Cenozoic vegetation of the Iberian Peninsula: A synthesis

The aim of this work is to provide a first approach to the evolution of Iberia's vegetation during the Cenozoic (with the exclusion of the Quaternary). The Palaeogene was floristically defined by Palaeotropical elements forming tropical/subtropical rainforests, mangrove swamps, edaphically-mediated laurophyllous forests and leguminous-sclerophyllous communities. During the Miocene, Iberian landscapes were drastically modified due to geographic and climatic changes (mainly cooling and aridification) changes. Open, steppe-like environments developed towards the interior of the peninsula and Arctotertiary elements invaded mountainous and riparian ecosystems, coexisting with or becoming part of evergreen, broadleaved forests of Palaeotropical species. From the Late Miocene onwards these forests suffered changes due to the extinction of taxa, the impact of environmental change on the survivors, and the perturbations caused by the arrival of further Arctotertiary elements. However, several Palaeotropical taxa overcame the environmental and climatic changes of the Miocene and Pliocene to form a part of the modern flora of the Iberian Peninsula.     

Assessing the impacts of wind farms on birds

The potential effects of the proposed increase in wind energy developments on birds are explored using information from studies of existing wind farms. Evidence of the four main effects, collision, displacement due to disturbance, barrier effects and habitat loss, is presented and discussed. The consequences of such effects may be direct mortality or more subtle changes to condition and breeding success. The requirements for assessing the impact of future developments are summarized, including relevant environmental legislation and appropriate methods for undertaking baseline surveys and post-construction monitoring, with particular emphasis on the rapidly developing area of offshore wind farm assessments. Mitigation measures which have the potential to minimize impacts are also summarized. Finally, recent developments in the monitoring and research of wind energy impacts on birds are outlined and some areas for future work are described.     

Inclusion of local environmental conditions alters high-latitude vegetation change predictions based on bioclimatic models

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are typically based on coarse-grained climate surfaces utilizing bioclimate envelope modelling. However, the suitability of environmental conditions for a given species might result from a variety of factors including some unrelated to climate. To address this issue, we investigated whether the inclusion of topographical and soil information in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change—induced fine-scale tree and shrub species range size changes at the tree-limit in subarctic Europe. Using generalized additive models and data on current climate and species distributions and three different climate scenarios for the period 2040–2069, we developed predictions of the currently suitable area and potential range size changes of seven tree and shrub species in an area of 1,100 km² at a resolution of 1-ha. The inclusion of topography and soil information increased the predictive accuracy of climate-only models for all studied species. The predicted changes in species distribution volumes were contradictory, and the predicted occurrences varied greatly depending on the model used. Our results therefore support the arguments that vegetation responses to climate change can be influenced by local environmental conditions and that attention should be paid to the combined effects of these factors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in bioclimatic models may result in biased projections of range expansions and the associated colonization, extinction and turnover assessments.     

Climate and land use change impacts on Mediterranean high-mountain vegetation in the Apennines since the 1950s

Background: High-mountain ecosystems are centres of plant diversity that are particularly sensitive to land-use and climate change.

Aims: We investigated the ecological trends associated with land use and climate change since the 1950s in different vegetation types in high-mountain habitats in the central Apennines.

Methods: We analysed temporal changes in: Pinus mugo scrub, calcareous subalpine grasslands and alpine scree vegetation, comparing historical and recent vegetation records from vegetation plots from two periods (1955–1980 and 1990–2014) for their ecological indicator values (Landolt temperature and nutrient indicators) and structural traits (growth forms) over time using generalised linear models (GLMs).

Results: We observed significant temporal differences in the ecology and structure of the analysed habitats. In the Pinus mugo scrub we detected a reduction of subalpine and herbaceous species and in calcareous alpine screes we observed an increment of the lower montane, montane and subalpine species and of dwarf shrubs. Conversely, subalpine grasslands were stable over time.

Conclusions: Ecological changes that have occurred in the Central Apennines, following changes in type and intensity of land use and recent warming are consistent with those observed in other European mountains, for which climate and land-use changes are claimed as the main driving forces.     

A comparison of methods for predicting vegetation type

Predictive modeling of vegetation patterns has wide application in vegetation science. In this paper I discuss three methods of predictive modeling using data from the alpine treeline ecotone as a case study. The study area is a portion of Glacier National Park, Montana. Parametric general linear models (GLM), artificial neural networks (ANN) and classification tree (CT) methods of predicting vegetation type are compared to determine the relative strength of each predictive approach and how they may be used in concert to increase understanding of important vegetation – environment relations. For each predictive method, vegetation type within the alpine treeline ecotone is predicted using a suite of environmental indicator variables including elevation, moisture potential, solar radiation potential, snow potential index, and disturbance history. Results from each of the predictive methods are compared against the real vegetation types to determine the relative accuracy of the methods.When the entire data field is examined (i.e., not evaluated by smaller spatial aggregates of data) the ANN procedure produces the most accurate predictions (=0.571); the CT predictions are the least accurate (=0.351). The predicted patterns of vegetation on the landscape are considerably different using the three methods. The GLM and CT methods produce large contiguous swaths of vegetation types throughout the study area, whereas the ANN method produces patterns with much more heterogeneity and smaller patches.When predictions are compared to reality at catchment scale, it becomes evident that the accuracy of each method varies depending upon the specific situation. The ANN procedure remains the most accurate method in the majority of the catchments, but both the GLM and PCT produce the most accurate classifications in at least one basin each.The variability in predictive ability of the three methods tested here indicates that there may not be a single best predictive method. Rather it may be important to use a suite of predictive models to help understand the environment – vegetation relationships. The ability to use multiple predictive methods to determine which spatial subunits of a landscape are outliers is important when identifying locations useful for climate change monitoring studies.