The behavioural responses of badgers (Meles meles) to exclusion from farm buildings using an electric fence

Behavioural investigations into the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) between badgers and cattle suggest that badger activity in farm buildings may incur a significant risk of cross-infection. However, measures to exclude badgers from buildings have not been systematically field-tested. In the present study, remote surveillance and radio-tracking were used to monitor the effect of electric fencing manipulations on the frequency of badger incursions into feed stores and cattle housing, and on badger ranging behaviour. Electric fencing was effective in preventing access to the farm buildings where it was installed and also significantly reduced incursions into unfenced buildings. Badger home range and core activity areas tended to increase in size when the fencing was installed, although they did not extend beyond the boundaries of the relevant social group territories. We discuss the logistical constraints of using electric fencing in this context and conclude that it is a potentially useful method of reducing contact between badgers and cattle, within farm buildings and yards.     

Use of cattle farm resources by badgers (Meles meles) and risk of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) transmission to cattle

Nocturnal observations, radio telemetry and time-lapse camera surveillance were used to investigate visits by badgers (Meles meles L.) to two cattle farms. During 59 half-nights (ca. 295 h) of observation and 17 nights (ca. 154 h) of camera surveillance, 139 separate visits to farm buildings, by at least 26 individually identifiable badgers from two social groups, were recorded. The badgers, which included three individuals infected with bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis), used cowsheds, feedsheds, barns, haystacks, slurry pits, cattle troughs and farmyards to exploit a range of food resources, including cattle feed and silage. Cattle feed was contaminated with badger faeces and badgers also came into close contact with cattle. The minimum number of badgers visiting farm buildings per night was negatively correlated with local 24 h rainfall. We conclude that exploitation by badgers of resources provided by cattle farms constitutes a potentially important mechanism for tuberculosis transmission from badgers to cattle.     

Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds

Background

The control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a priority on the public health agenda in Great Britain, after launching in 1998 the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) to evaluate the effectiveness of badger (Meles meles) culling as a control strategy. Our study complements previous analyses of the RBCT data (focusing on treatment effects) by presenting analyses of herd-level risks factors associated with the probability of a confirmed bTB breakdown in herds within each treatment: repeated widespread proactive culling, localized reactive culling and no culling (survey-only).

Methodology/Principal Findings

New cases of bTB breakdowns were monitored inside the RBCT areas from the end of the first proactive badger cull to one year after the last proactive cull. The risk of a herd bTB breakdown was modeled using logistic regression and proportional hazard models adjusting for local farm-level risk factors. Inside survey-only and reactive areas, increased numbers of active badger setts and cattle herds within 1500 m of a farm were associated with an increased bTB risk. Inside proactive areas, the number of M. bovis positive badgers initially culled within 1500 m of a farm was the strongest predictor of the risk of a confirmed bTB breakdown.

Conclusions/Significance

The use of herd-based models provide insights into how local cattle and badger populations affect the bTB breakdown risks of individual cattle herds in the absence of and in the presence of badger culling. These measures of local bTB risks could be integrated into a risk-based herd testing programme to improve the targeting of interventions aimed at reducing the risks of bTB transmission.     

Direction of Association between Bite Wounds and Mycobacterium bovis Infection in Badgers: Implications for Transmission

Background

Badgers are involved in the transmission to cattle of bovine tuberculosis (TB), a serious problem for the UK farming industry. Cross-sectional studies have shown an association between bite wounds and TB infection in badgers which may have implications for M. bovis transmission and control, although the sequence of these two events is unclear. Transmission during aggressive encounters could potentially reduce the effectiveness of policies which increase the average range of a badger and thus its opportunities for interaction with other social groups.

Methods

Data were obtained on badgers captured during a long term study at Woodchester Park, UK (1998–2006). Many badgers had multiple observations. At each observation, the badger was assigned a “state” depending on presence of bite wounds and/or TB infection. Hence each badger had a “transition” from the previous state to the current state. We calculated the numbers of each type of transition and the time spent in each state. Transition rates were calculated for each transition category, dividing the number of such transitions by the total time at risk. We compared the rate of bite wound acquisition in infected badgers with that for uninfected badgers and the rate of positive M.bovis test results in bitten badgers with that in unbitten badgers.

Results

The rate of bite wound acquisition in infected badgers (0.291 per year) was 2.09 (95% CI: 1.41, 3.08) times that in uninfected badgers (0.139 per year). The rate of positive M.bovis test results in bitten badgers (0.097 per year) was 2.45 (95% CI: 1.29, 4.65) times that in unbitten badgers (0.040 per year).

Conclusions

We found strong evidence of both potential sequences of events consistent with transmission via bite wounds and distinctive behaviour in infected badgers. The complex relationship between behaviour and infection must be considered when planning TB control strategies.     

Interspecific visitation of cattle and badgers to fomites: A transmission risk for bovine tuberculosis?

In Great Britain and Ireland, badgers (Meles meles) are a wildlife reservoir of Mycobacterium bovis and implicated in bovine tuberculosis transmission to domestic cattle. The route of disease transmission is unknown with direct, so‐called “nose‐to‐nose,” contact between hosts being extremely rare. Camera traps were deployed for 64,464 hr on 34 farms to quantify cattle and badger visitation rates in space and time at six farm locations. Badger presence never coincided with cattle presence at the same time, with badger and cattle detection at the same location but at different times being negatively correlated. Badgers were never recorded within farmyards during the present study. Badgers utilized cattle water troughs in fields, but detections were infrequent (equivalent to one badger observed drinking every 87 days). Cattle presence at badger‐associated locations, for example, setts and latrines, were three times more frequent than badger presence at cattle‐associated locations, for example, water troughs. Preventing cattle access to badger setts and latrines and restricting badger access to cattle water troughs may potentially reduce interspecific bTB transmission through reduced indirect contact.     

Reports on badgers Meles meles in Dutch newspapers 1900–2013: same animals,different framings?

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Culling-induced social perturbation in Eurasian badgers Meles meles and the management of TB in cattle: an analysis of a critical problem in applied ecology

The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) to cattle in the UK and Republic of Ireland. Badger culling has been employed for the control of TB in cattle in both countries, with varying results. Social perturbation of badger populations following culling has been proposed as an explanation for the failure of culling to consistently demonstrate significant reductions in cattle TB. Field studies indicate that culling badgers may result in increased immigration into culled areas, disruption of territoriality, increased ranging and mixing between social groups. Our analysis shows that some measures of sociality may remain significantly disrupted for up to 8 years after culling. This may have epidemiological consequences because previous research has shown that even in a relatively undisturbed badger population, movements between groups are associated with increases in the incidence of Mycobacterium bovis infection. This is consistent with the results from a large-scale field trial, which demonstrated decreased benefits of culling at the edges of culled areas, and an increase in herd breakdown rates in neighbouring cattle.     

The Duration of the Effects of Repeated Widespread Badger Culling on Cattle Tuberculosis Following the Cessation of Culling

Background

In the British Isles, control of cattle tuberculosis (TB) is hindered by persistent infection of wild badger (Meles meles) populations. A large-scale field trial—the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT)—previously showed that widespread badger culling produced modest reductions in cattle TB incidence during culling, which were offset by elevated TB risks for cattle on adjoining lands. Once culling was halted, beneficial effects inside culling areas increased, while detrimental effects on adjoining lands disappeared. However, a full assessment of the utility of badger culling requires information on the duration of culling effects.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We monitored cattle TB incidence in and around RBCT areas after culling ended. We found that benefits inside culled areas declined over time, and were no longer detectable by three years post-culling. On adjoining lands, a trend suggesting beneficial effects immediately after the end of culling was insignificant, and disappeared after 18 months post-culling. From completion of the first cull to the loss of detectable effects (an average five-year culling period plus 2.5 years post-culling), cattle TB incidence was 28.7% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.7 to 35.8% lower) inside ten 100 km² culled areas than inside ten matched no-culling areas, and comparable (11.7% higher, 95% CI: 13.0% lower to 43.4% higher, p  =  0.39) on lands ≤2 km outside culled and no-culling areas. The financial costs of culling an idealized 150 km² area would exceed the savings achieved through reduced cattle TB, by factors of 2 to 3.5.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings show that the reductions in cattle TB incidence achieved by repeated badger culling were not sustained in the long term after culling ended and did not offset the financial costs of culling. These results, combined with evaluation of alternative culling methods, suggest that badger culling is unlikely to contribute effectively to the control of cattle TB in Britain.     

Inferring Mycobacterium bovis transmission between cattle and badgers using isolates from the Randomised Badger Culling Trial

Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) is a causative agent of bovine tuberculosis, a significant source of morbidity and mortality in the global cattle industry. The Randomised Badger Culling Trial was a field experiment carried out between 1998 and 2005 in the South West of England. As part of this trial, M. bovis isolates were collected from contemporaneous and overlapping populations of badgers and cattle within ten defined trial areas. We combined whole genome sequences from 1,442 isolates with location and cattle movement data, identifying transmission clusters and inferred rates and routes of transmission of M. bovis. Most trial areas contained a single transmission cluster that had been established shortly before sampling, often contemporaneous with the expansion of bovine tuberculosis in the 1980s. The estimated rate of transmission from badger to cattle was approximately two times higher than from cattle to badger, and the rate of within-species transmission considerably exceeded these for both species. We identified long distance transmission events linked to cattle movement, recurrence of herd breakdown by infection within the same transmission clusters and superspreader events driven by cattle but not badgers. Overall, our data suggests that the transmission clusters in different parts of South West England that are still evident today were established by long-distance seeding events involving cattle movement, not by recrudescence from a long-established wildlife reservoir. Clusters are maintained primarily by within-species transmission, with less frequent spill-over both from badger to cattle and cattle to badger.     

A study of fox (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Vulpes vulpes</Emphasis>) visits to farm buildings in Southwest England and the implications for disease management

Farm buildings may offer foraging opportunities for wild mammals, which may result in economic losses and the potential for disease transmission to livestock. Effective management to reduce such risks requires knowledge of the behaviour of wildlife visiting buildings. Remote surveillance was used to monitor red fox (Vulpes vulpes) activity in buildings on cattle farms in Southwest England over a period of 2 years. Frequent visits were observed throughout the year, during which foxes excreted and scent-marked on stored feed. This behaviour carries potential risks of pathogen transmission to cattle. Fox visits were positively correlated with maximum temperature in the preceding 24 h, and were most frequent to buildings where cattle were absent. The frequency of fox visits varied widely amongst farms, potentially reflecting variation in local farm management practices. On some farms, visits were frequent and involved behaviour with the potential to result in contamination of the environment with infectious pathogens. Risks of onward transmission to domestic animals could be managed by imposing tighter biosecurity measures.     

Weather influences trapping success for tuberculosis management in European badgers (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Meles meles</Emphasis>)

European badgers (Meles meles) in Ireland and the UK are a reservoir for Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB). A number of interventions have been evaluated in attempts to control bovine TB within badger populations, and many of which rely on the capture of badgers. One strategy being implemented within Ireland is intramuscular vaccination using Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), as an alternative to badger culling. The success of vaccination as a disease control strategy depends on the ability to capture badgers and administer vaccines; thus, trapping success is crucial to effectively vaccinate the population (maximize vaccine coverage). A field vaccine trial was conducted in County Kilkenny, Ireland, from 2010–2013. We used data from this trial to evaluate the association between weather (precipitation and temperature data), badger sett characteristics, and badger trapping success. Approximately 10% of capture efforts resulted in a badger capture. Our results indicate that badger captures were the highest in drizzle, rain, and heavy rain weather conditions, and when minimum temperatures ranged from 3–8 °C. Badger captures were the highest at main setts (large burrow systems), and when sett activity scores were high (qualitative classes 4 or 5). Using local precipitation and temperature data in conjunction with observed sett characteristics provides wildlife managers with guidelines to optimize trapping success. Implementing capture operations under optimal conditions should increase the trapping success of badgers and allow for increased delivery of vaccines to manage bovine TB.     

Badgers prefer cattle pasture but avoid cattle: implications for bovine tuberculosis control

Effective management of infectious disease relies upon understanding mechanisms of pathogen transmission. In particular, while models of disease dynamics usually assume transmission through direct contact, transmission through environmental contamination can cause different dynamics. We used Global Positioning System (GPS) collars and proximity‐sensing contact‐collars to explore opportunities for transmission of Mycobacterium bovis [causal agent of bovine tuberculosis] between cattle and badgers (Meles meles). Cattle pasture was badgers’ most preferred habitat. Nevertheless, although collared cattle spent 2914 collar‐nights in the home ranges of contact‐collared badgers, and 5380 collar‐nights in the home ranges of GPS‐collared badgers, we detected no direct contacts between the two species. Simultaneous GPS‐tracking revealed that badgers preferred land > 50 m from cattle. Very infrequent direct contact indicates that badger‐to‐cattle and cattle‐to‐badger M. bovis transmission may typically occur through contamination of the two species’ shared environment. This information should help to inform tuberculosis control by guiding both modelling and farm management.     

dATP/ATP, a multifunctional nucleotide, stimulates bacterial cell lysis, extracellular DNA release and biofilm development

Background

Signaling by extracellular adenosine 5′-triphosphase (eATP) is very common for cell-to-cell communication in many basic patho-physiological development processes. Rapid release of ATP into the extracellular environment from distressed or injured eukaryotic cells due to pathogens or other etiological factors can serve as a “danger signal”, activating host innate immunity. However, little is known about how or whether pathogenic bacteria respond to this “danger signal”.

Methods and Principal Findings

Here we report that extracellular dATP/ATP can stimulate bacterial adhesion and biofilm formation via increased cell lysis and extracellular DNA (eDNA) release. We demonstrate that extracellular dATP/ATP also stimulates bacterial adherence in vitro to human bronchial epithelial cells.

Conclusions and Significance

These data suggest that bacteria may sense extracellular dATP/ATP as a signal of “danger” and form biofilms to protect them from host innate immunity. This study reveals a very important and unrecognized phenomenon that both bacteria and host cells could respond to a common important signal molecule in a race to adapt to the presence of one another. We propose that extracellular dATP/ATP functions as an “inter-domain” warning signal that serves to induce protective measures in both Bacterial and Eukaryotic cells.     

Noradrenergic α₁ receptor antagonist treatment attenuates positive subjective effects of cocaine in humans: a randomized trial

Background

Preclinical research implicates dopaminergic and noradrenergic mechanisms in mediating the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse, including cocaine. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of treatment with the noradrenergic α₁ receptor antagonist doxazosin on the positive subjective effects of cocaine.

Methods

Thirteen non-treatment seeking, cocaine-dependent volunteers completed this single-site, randomized, placebo-controlled, within-subjects study. In one study phase volunteers received placebo and in the other they received doxazosin, with the order counterbalanced across participants. Study medication was masked by over-encapsulating doxazosin tablets and matched placebo lactose served as the control. Study medication treatment was initiated at 1 mg doxazosin or equivalent number of placebo capsules PO/day and increased every three days by 1 mg. After receiving 4 mg doxazosin or equivalent number of placebo capsules participants received masked doses of 20 and 40 mg cocaine IV in that order with placebo saline randomly interspersed to maintain the blind.

Results

Doxazosin treatment was well tolerated and doxazosin alone produced minimal changes in heart rate and blood pressure. During treatment with placebo, cocaine produced dose-dependent increases in subjective effect ratings of “high”, “stimulated”, “like cocaine”, “desire cocaine”, “any drug effect”, and “likely to use cocaine if had access” (p<.001). Doxazosin treatment significantly attenuated the effects of 20 mg cocaine on ratings of “stimulated”, “like cocaine”, and “likely to use cocaine if had access” (p<.05). There were trends for doxazosin to reduce ratings of “stimulated”, “desire cocaine”, and “likely to use cocaine if had access” (p<.10).

Conclusions

Medications that block noradrenergic α₁ receptors, such as doxazosin, may be useful as treatments for cocaine dependence, and should be evaluated further.

Trial Registration

Clinicaltrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01062945","term_id":"NCT01062945"}}NCT01062945     

The effect of systematic clinical interventions with cigarette smokers on quit status and the rates of smoking-related primary care office visits

Background

The United States Public Health Service (USPHS) Guideline for Treating Tobacco Use and Dependence includes ten key recommendations regarding the identification and the treatment of tobacco users seen in all health care settings. To our knowledge, the impact of system-wide brief interventions with cigarette smokers on smoking prevalence and health care utilization has not been examined using patient population-based data.

Methods and Findings

Data on clinical interventions with cigarette smokers were examined for primary care office visits of 104,639 patients at 17 Harvard Vanguard Medical Associates (HVMA) sites. An operational definition of “systems change” was developed. It included thresholds for intervention frequency and sustainability. Twelve sites met the criteria. Five did not. Decreases in self-reported smoking prevalence were 40% greater at sites that achieved systems change (13.6% vs. 9.7%, p<.01). On average, the likelihood of quitting increased by 2.6% (p<0.05, 95% CI: 0.1%–4.6%) per occurrence of brief intervention. For patients with a recent history of current smoking whose home site experienced systems change, the likelihood of an office visit for smoking-related diagnoses decreased by 4.3% on an annualized basis after systems change occurred (p<0.05, 95% CI: 0.5%–8.1%). There was no change in the likelihood of an office visit for smoking-related diagnoses following systems change among non-smokers.

Conclusions

The clinical practice data from HVMA suggest that a systems approach can lead to significant reductions in smoking prevalence and the rate of office visits for smoking-related diseases. Most comprehensive tobacco intervention strategies focus on the provider or the tobacco user, but these results argue that health systems should be included as an integral component of a comprehensive tobacco intervention strategy. The HVMA results also give us an indication of the potential health impacts when meaningful use core tobacco measures are widely adopted.     

Application of frequent itemsets mining to analyze patterns of one-stop visits in Taiwan

Background

The free choice of health care facilities without limitations on frequency of visits within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan gives rise to not only a high number of annual ambulatory visits per capita but also a unique “one-stop shopping”phenomenon, which refers to a patient'' visits to several specialties of the same healthcare facility in one day. The visits to multiple physicians would increase the potential risk of polypharmacy. The aim of this study was to analyze the frequency and patterns of one-stop visits in Taiwan.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The claims datasets of 1 million nationally representative people within Taiwan''s National Health Insurance in 2005 were used to calculate the number of patients with one-stop visits. The frequent itemsets mining was applied to compute the combination patterns of specialties in the one-stop visits. Among the total 13,682,469 ambulatory care visits in 2005, one-stop visits occurred 144,132 times and involved 296,822 visits (2.2% of all visits) by 66,294 (6.6%) persons. People tended to have this behavior with age and the percentage reached 27.5% (5,662 in 20,579) in the age group ≥80 years. In general, women were more likely to have one-stop visits than men (7.2% vs. 6.0%). Internal medicine plus ophthalmology was the most frequent combination with a visited frequency of 3,552 times (2.5%), followed by cardiology plus neurology with 3,183 times (2.2%). The most frequent three-specialty combination, cardiology plus neurology and gastroenterology, occurred only 111 times.

Conclusions/Significance

Without the novel computational technique, it would be hardly possible to analyze the extremely diverse combination patterns of specialties in one-stop visits. The results of the study could provide useful information either for the hospital manager to set up integrated services or for the policymaker to rebuild the health care system.     

Profiling dizziness in older primary care patients: an empirical study

Background

The diagnostic approach to dizzy, older patients is not straightforward as many organ systems can be involved and evidence for diagnostic strategies is lacking. A first differentiation in diagnostic subtypes or profiles may guide the diagnostic process of dizziness and can serve as a classification system in future research. In the literature this has been done, but based on pathophysiological reasoning only.

Objective

To establish a classification of diagnostic profiles of dizziness based on empirical data.

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Participants and Setting

417 consecutive patients of 65 years and older presenting with dizziness to 45 primary care physicians in the Netherlands from July 2006 to January 2008.

Methods

We performed tests, including patient history, and physical and additional examination, previously selected by an international expert panel and based on an earlier systematic review. We used the results of these tests in a principal component analysis for exploration, data-reduction and finally differentiation into diagnostic dizziness profiles.

Results

Demographic data and the results of the tests yielded 221 variables, of which 49 contributed to the classification of dizziness into six diagnostic profiles, that may be named as follows: “frailty”, “psychological”, “cardiovascular”, “presyncope”, “non-specific dizziness” and “ENT”. These explained 32% of the variance.

Conclusions

Empirically identified components classify dizziness into six profiles. This classification takes into account the heterogeneity and multicausality of dizziness and may serve as starting point for research on diagnostic strategies and can be a first step in an evidence based diagnostic approach of dizzy older patients.     

Modelling long term disability following injury: comparison of three approaches for handling multiple injuries

Background

Injury is a leading cause of the global burden of disease (GBD). Estimates of non-fatal injury burden have been limited by a paucity of empirical outcomes data. This study aimed to (i) establish the 12-month disability associated with each GBD 2010 injury health state, and (ii) compare approaches to modelling the impact of multiple injury health states on disability as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale – Extended (GOS-E).

Methods

12-month functional outcomes for 11,337 survivors to hospital discharge were drawn from the Victorian State Trauma Registry and the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. ICD-10 diagnosis codes were mapped to the GBD 2010 injury health states. Cases with a GOS-E score >6 were defined as “recovered.” A split dataset approach was used. Cases were randomly assigned to development or test datasets. Probability of recovery for each health state was calculated using the development dataset. Three logistic regression models were evaluated: a) additive, multivariable; b) “worst injury;” and c) multiplicative. Models were adjusted for age and comorbidity and investigated for discrimination and calibration.

Findings

A single injury health state was recorded for 46% of cases (1–16 health states per case). The additive (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.71) and “worst injury” (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) models demonstrated higher discrimination than the multiplicative (C-statistic 0.68; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.70) model. The additive and “worst injury” models demonstrated acceptable calibration.

Conclusions

The majority of patients survived with persisting disability at 12-months, highlighting the importance of improving estimates of non-fatal injury burden. Additive and “worst” injury models performed similarly. GBD 2010 injury states were moderately predictive of recovery 1-year post-injury. Further evaluation using additional measures of health status and functioning and comparison with the GBD 2010 disability weights will be needed to optimise injury states for future GBD studies.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of "test" versus "treat" patients hospitalized with suspected influenza in Hong Kong

Background

Seasonal and 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses may cause severe diseases and result in excess hospitalization and mortality in the older and younger adults, respectively. Early antiviral treatment may improve clinical outcomes. We examined potential outcomes and costs of test-guided versus empirical treatment in patients hospitalized for suspected influenza in Hong Kong.

Methods

We designed a decision tree to simulate potential outcomes of four management strategies in adults hospitalized for severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza: “immunofluorescence-assay” (IFA) or “polymerase-chain-reaction” (PCR)-guided oseltamivir treatment, “empirical treatment plus PCR” and “empirical treatment alone”. Model inputs were derived from literature. The average prevalence (11%) of influenza in 2010–2011 (58% being 2009 H1N1) among cases of respiratory infections was used in the base-case analysis. Primary outcome simulated was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) expected (ICER) from the Hong Kong healthcare providers'' perspective.

Results

In base-case analysis, “empirical treatment alone” was shown to be the most cost-effective strategy and dominated the other three options. Sensitivity analyses showed that “PCR-guided treatment” would dominate “empirical treatment alone” when the daily cost of oseltamivir exceeded USD18, or when influenza prevalence was <2.5% and the predominant circulating viruses were not 2009 H1N1. Using USD50,000 as the threshold of willingness-to-pay, “empirical treatment alone” and “PCR-guided treatment” were cost-effective 97% and 3% of time, respectively, in 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations.

Conclusions

During influenza epidemics, empirical antiviral treatment appears to be a cost-effective strategy in managing patients hospitalized with severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza, from the perspective of healthcare providers in Hong Kong.     

Impact of culling on relative abundance of the European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland

The European Badger (Meles meles) has been implicated in the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in cattle populations in the Republic of Ireland. Badger populations have been subject to a culling regime in areas with chronic histories of bTB cattle herd breakdowns. Removal data from 2004 to 2010 were used to model the impact of culling on populations in areas under capture. Additionally, changes in field signs of badger activity were used as an index of abundance to support, or otherwise, the outcomes of the removal models. Significant reductions in standardised badger captures over time were found across three large study areas (total area, 1,355 km²). Assuming that all inactive setts were vacant, an overall linear trend model suggested that badger captures had decreased by 78 % for setts with 6 years of repeated capturing operations. Given the uncertainty associated with the relationship between sett activity and badger presence, we repeated the linear modelling using two ‘what if’ scenarios. Assuming that individual badgers were missed on 10 % or 20 % of occasions at inactive setts, the estimated decline over 6 years is lowered to 71 % or 64 %, respectively. The decline profile consisted of a steep initial decrease in captures within the first 2 years, followed by a more gradual decrease thereafter. The number of active openings at setts (burrows) declined significantly in all three areas; but the magnitude of this decline varied significantly amongst study areas (41–82 %). There was a significant increase in the probability of setts becoming dormant with time. The removal programme was more intense (mean, 0.45 badgers culled km^?2 year^?1) than previous experimental badger removals in Ireland but some captures may be attributed to immigrant badgers as no attempt was made to limit inward dispersal from areas not under management. Results from this study suggest that significant reductions in badger density occurred in the areas where management had taken place. Since other non-culled badger populations in Northern Ireland and Britain exhibited stable population trends, we attribute the reduction in relative abundance to the culling regime. Further studies of the dynamics of this reduction are required to quantify how it is counteracted by immigration from populations outside of culled areas.