Half-Century Winter Duck Abundance and Temperature Trends in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways

Increasing concerns exist about possible decreased wintering duck abundance and hunting opportunities in the southern regions of the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways of North America. Researchers suggest these decreased abundances of ducks may be related to winter warming and related climatic phenomena. Accordingly, we tested predictions that duck abundance was increasing more at northern than southern latitudes, and that trends were related to average winter temperatures (Dec–Jan). We tested predictions using National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data collected during December 1969 through January 2019 from 31 states in the United States and 6 Canadian provinces that comprise the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways for 16 species of dabbling and diving ducks (Anatinae). We found support for the prediction that CBC trends in duck abundance vary with latitude, and mean winter temperature explained nearly half the variation in CBC trends for 12 of 16 species. For some species, trends were negative in warmer regions and positive in colder regions. For others, trends were stable or slightly positive in warmer regions but more positive in colder regions. These results provide empirical evidence supporting climate-influenced winter range changes by important game duck species and suggest challenges and opportunities for waterfowl population, habitat, and hunting management in North America and the northern hemisphere. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Predicting Wood Duck Harvest Rates in Eastern North America

Abstract: We developed a method for predicting wood duck (Aix sponsa) harvest rates in eastern North America using waterfowl banding and recovery data, annual indices of hunter numbers, and harvest survey data from the United States and Canada. We predicted that under the current season length (60 days), if hunter numbers remain unchanged, increasing the wood duck bag limit from 2 to 3 would increase harvest of adult male wood ducks in the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways by 12.3%, causing an increase in harvest rate of 7.1% from 0.087 to 0.093. The Flyway Councils and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service can consider this information to predict the impacts of regulatory changes.     

Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck

Assessing spatial variation in waterfowl harvest probabilities from banding data is challenging because reporting and recovery probabilities have distinct spatial patterns that covary temporally with harvesting regulations, hunter effort, and reporting methods. We analyzed direct band recovery data from American black ducks banded on the Canadian breeding grounds from 1970 through 2010. Data were registered to a 1‐degree grid and analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression models with spatially correlated errors to estimate the annual probabilities of band recovery and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada. Probability of harvest was estimated from these values, in combination with independent estimates of reporting probabilities in Canada and the USA. Model covariates included estimates of hunting effort and factors for harvest regulation and band reporting methods. Both the band recovery processes and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada had significant spatial structure. Recovery probabilities were highest in southern Ontario, along the Saint Lawrence River in Quebec, and in Nova Scotia. Black ducks breeding in Nova Scotia and southern Quebec were harvested predominantly in Canada. Recovery probabilities for juveniles were correlated with hunter effort, while the adult recoveries were weakly correlated with the implementation of stricter harvest regulations in the early 1980s. Mean harvest probability decreased in the northern portion of the survey area but remained stable or even increased in the south. Harvest probabilities for juveniles in 2010 exceeded 20% in southern Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Our results demonstrate fine‐scale variation in harvest probabilities for black duck on the Canadian breeding ground. In particular, harvest probabilities should be closely monitored along the Saint Lawrence River system and in the Atlantic provinces to avoid overexploitation.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of duck harvest distributions in the Central and Mississippi flyways, 1960–2019

Geographical distributions of waterfowl exhibit annual variation in response to spatiotemporal variation in weather conditions, habitat availability, and other factors. Continuing changes in climate and land use could lead to persistent shifts of waterfowl distributions, potentially causing a mismatch with habitat conservation planning, wetland restoration efforts, and harvest management decisions informed by historical distributions. We used band recoveries and harvest records (i.e., hunter-harvested wings) from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Waterfowl Parts Collection Survey as indices of duck distribution in autumn and winter, and quantified intra-annual, interannual, and interspecific variation in their geographic distributions across 6 decades (1960–2019) for 15 duck species in the Central and Mississippi flyways in North America. Specifically, we tested for annual and decadal shifts in mean latitude and longitude of recoveries for each month (Oct–Jan) by species and taxonomic guild (i.e., dabbling, diving ducks). Overall, species varied in the extent, timing, and sometimes direction, of distributional change in recoveries. From 1960–2019, mean recovery locations for dabbling ducks shifted south 105–296 km in October and 27 km in November (wings only), whereas mean latitudes shifted north 144–234 km in December and 186–301 km in January. Mean recovery locations for diving ducks shifted north 162 km in October (wings only), 84–173 km in December, and 66–120 km in January, but shifted 99–512 km south in November. Shifts in longitude were less consistent between guilds and data types. Finally, distributional change rarely accelerated during recent decades, except for southward shifts of band recoveries of diving ducks in November and northward shifts of band and wing recoveries of dabbling ducks in January. Although anecdotal accounts of large-scale northward shifts in duck distributions are prolific in the land management and hunting communities, our data demonstrate more subtle shifts that vary considerably by species and month. Observed changes in recovery distributions could necessitate changes in timing of habitat management practices throughout the Central and Mississippi flyways and may result in fewer hunting and recreational opportunities for some species in southern states. Quantifying patterns of historical change is a necessary first step to understanding temporal and interspecific variation in waterfowl distributions, which will help with landscape-scale conservation and management efforts in the future and enable effective communication to core constituencies regarding ongoing changes and their implications for recreational engagement.     

Origins of harvested American black ducks: stable isotopes support the flyover hypothesis

Waterfowl management is more effective when based on detailed information on population connectivity between breeding, wintering, and stopover sites. For the American black duck (Anas rubripes), a species of conservation concern, estimates for the fall age ratio at harvest differed depending on whether harvest data were derived from Canada or the United States, suggesting regional differences. Within Canada, hunters in Atlantic Canada were more likely to harvest black ducks from nearby breeding locations compared to hunters in southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada, who were more likely to harvest individuals from the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield of eastern Canada. Black ducks harvested in the United States are thought to originate predominantly from northern portions of the breeding range, leading to the flyover hypothesis, which postulates that black ducks produced in the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield region are less susceptible to harvest by hunters in Atlantic Canada and northeastern United States. To test the flyover hypothesis, we examined regional and temporal differences in the origins of harvested black ducks using feathers from wings (n = 664) submitted by hunters to the species composition and parts collection surveys across 3 hunting seasons (2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2019–2020). We used a likelihood-based assignment method that relied on feather stable-hydrogen isotopes (δ²H) and stable-carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) to determine the natal or molt origin of individuals harvested within eastern Canada and the United States. We also used a spatial clustering technique to group harvested individuals by area of origin without a priori knowledge of such regions. Adult female black ducks originated farther south compared to males and juveniles. All sexes and ages of black ducks harvested in Atlantic Canada showed predominantly southern origins, while those harvested in the United States and other Canadian provinces primarily originated farther north within the boreal, supporting the flyover hypothesis. By contrast, we found no relationship between timing of harvest or peaks of migration and individual origin. After combining band returns and stable isotopes, we inferred 2 distinct stocks: the Mississippi flyway stock and the Atlantic flyway stock. We recommend that regional demographic parameters, particularly for Atlantic Canada, be directly measured to promote more effective conservation of black ducks and optimize harvest opportunities in the United States and Canada.     

An Integrated Population Model for Harvest Management of Atlantic Brant

Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species–habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.     

Avian Influenza Ecology in North Atlantic Sea Ducks: Not All Ducks Are Created Equal

Wild waterfowl are primary reservoirs of avian influenza viruses (AIV). However the role of sea ducks in the ecology of avian influenza, and how that role differs from freshwater ducks, has not been examined. We obtained and analyzed sera from North Atlantic sea ducks and determined the seroprevalence in those populations. We also tested swab samples from North Atlantic sea ducks for the presence of AIV. We found relatively high serological prevalence (61%) in these sea duck populations but low virus prevalence (0.3%). Using these data we estimated that an antibody half-life of 141 weeks (3.2 years) would be required to attain these prevalences. These findings are much different than what is known in freshwater waterfowl and have implications for surveillance efforts, AIV in marine environments, and the roles of sea ducks and other long-lived waterfowl in avian influenza ecology.     

A Demographic model for ring-necked ducks breeding in Minnesota

Population models can provide insights into how perturbations of demographic vital rates influence population growth rates (λ) and help prioritize efforts to achieve management goals. Although population models have been developed for numerous duck species, this tool has not been developed for ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris). Ring-necked ducks are a late-nesting species that may not be surveyed well by the May Waterfowl Survey, which is timed optimally for earlier nesting ducks like the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). Information specific to ring-necked ducks would help identify important influences on the rate of population growth and the direction of population change. We used data from our own research during 2008–2012, long-term (1975–2016) survey data from northcentral Minnesota, USA, vital rate estimates from the literature, and long-term (1987–2016) banding data to develop a population model for ring-necked ducks. We estimated annual survival and recovery rates of after-hatching-year and hatching-year female ring-necked ducks in Minnesota. Survey results and our matrix models indicated that ring-necked ducks are declining in the forested portion of Minnesota. Thus, we examined a boom-or-bust simulation scenario that might maintain a population through periodic occurrence of exceptional reproductive years in conjunction with high hatching-year survival. Our results indicated that long-term persistence is only expected in this population if reproductive output doubled at the same time that hatching-year survival was at its highest value, or if the population is maintained through immigration. Sensitivity analysis indicated that unit changes in 30-day brood survival will produce the most change in λ in the parameter space observed, although elasticity analysis indicated that proportional changes in annual survival of adult females will produce the largest proportional changes in λ. Management to improve brood survival to increase λ might include improving the habitat quality of brood-rearing lakes, especially those with more open water and less nesting habitat than those used for nesting. Our findings might also help explain disparities between annual breeding waterfowl surveys, which indicate stable or increasing populations, and hunter experiences in the fall. In Minnesota, hunter experiences have not matched expectations based on historical fall numbers and this could occur if regional production declined and fewer young birds were available for harvest. Our findings highlight the need for further study to inform management in this rapidly changing region. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Evidence for Black Duck Winter Distribution Change

ABSTRACT The Mississippi Flyway midwinter population survey (MWS) indicates that American black ducks (Anas rubripes) have been rapidly declining for the last 10 years. We found a negative relationship between MWS and Ontario (Canada) midwinter counts for black ducks. Thus, as number of black ducks in the MWS decreased, Ontario midwinter counts increased. A shift in midwinter distribution of black ducks may be partly responsible for the decreasing trend in MWS counts. We recommend that midwinter black duck surveys be expanded to more sites in southern Canada and northeastern United States that currently are not sampled to better assess winter habitat use and improve the midwinter black-duck population index.     

Genetic Structure of Avian Influenza Viruses from Ducks of the Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild birds, including waterfowl such as ducks, are reservoir hosts of influenza A viruses. Despite the increased number of avian influenza virus (AIV) genome sequences available, our understanding of AIV genetic structure and transmission through space and time in waterfowl in North America is still limited. In particular, AIVs in ducks of the Atlantic flyway of North America have not been thoroughly investigated. To begin to address this gap, we analyzed 109 AIV genome sequences from ducks in the Atlantic flyway to determine their genetic structure and to document the extent of gene flow in the context of sequences from other locations and other avian and mammalian host groups. The analyses included 25 AIVs from ducks from Newfoundland, Canada, from 2008–2011 and 84 available reference duck AIVs from the Atlantic flyway from 2006–2011. A vast diversity of viral genes and genomes was identified in the 109 viruses. The genetic structure differed amongst the 8 viral segments with predominant single lineages found for the PB2, PB1 and M segments, increased diversity found for the PA, NP and NS segments (2, 3 and 3 lineages, respectively), and the highest diversity found for the HA and NA segments (12 and 9 lineages, respectively). Identification of inter-hemispheric transmissions was rare with only 2% of the genes of Eurasian origin. Virus transmission between ducks and other bird groups was investigated, with 57.3% of the genes having highly similar (≥99% nucleotide identity) genes detected in birds other than ducks. Transmission between North American flyways has been frequent and 75.8% of the genes were highly similar to genes found in other North American flyways. However, the duck AIV genes did display spatial distribution bias, which was demonstrated by the different population sizes of specific viral genes in one or two neighbouring flyways compared to more distant flyways.     

Duck hunter activity,success, and satisfaction on public hunting areas

Because hunting disturbance can influence local distribution of ducks and their availability to hunters, managers often limit access to hunting areas to improve hunting success and satisfaction. Few studies have quantified the effectiveness of public area access restrictions on duck hunter activity, harvest, or hunters' satisfaction with their hunting experience. We used a cross-over design over 6 consecutive hunting seasons (2008–2009 through 2013–2014) on State Wildlife Areas (SWAs) in northeastern Colorado, USA, to compare the effects of restricted hunting access regulations and regulations without these restrictions on duck hunter activity, harvest success, harvest levels, and satisfaction. We also considered effects of SWA types, duck abundance, temperature, precipitation, use of equipment by duck hunting parties, and, for hunter satisfaction, hunting success, hunting parties' satisfaction with ducks seen, habitat conditions, crowding from other hunters, and SWA regulations. The number of days when duck hunters had access to restricted properties was about half that on unrestricted properties, and unrestricted properties were used by about twice as many duck hunting parties, but the mean number of hunting parties per available hunting day and mean party size were similar under the 2 types of regulations. Most (56%) duck hunting parties did not bag any ducks; hunting success (harvest of ≥1 duck by a hunting party) was best explained by a model that included a regulation type × hunting season interaction, a SWA type × month interaction, hunter density the previous day, an index of hunter investment (number of decoys used and whether dogs and calls were used), and temperature. Successful hunting parties harvested 1.92 ± 1.60 (SD) ducks/hunter/day (range = 0.1–7.0); the best model predicting the number of ducks harvested per hunter in successful parties included a regulation type × hunting season interaction, a SWA type × month interaction, hunter density the previous day, an index of hunter investment, temperature, and precipitation. Overall satisfaction of duck hunting parties with a day's hunt averaged 3.62 ± 1.20 based on a rank scale of 1 (very unsatisfied) to 5 (very satisfied), and was best explained by a model that included hunting party success; hunter investment; temperature; and satisfaction with duck numbers, habitat conditions, hunting regulations, and crowding. While greatly reducing days available for hunting, access restrictions were associated with improved chances of hunting parties successfully harvesting ≥1 duck in 5 of 6 hunting seasons, and substantially greater numbers of ducks harvested by hunters in successful parties in 1 of 6 hunting seasons. Restrictions did not have a strong direct effect on hunting parties' satisfaction with a day's hunt. Uncontrolled factors, including weather and use of equipment by hunters, had important influences on hunter success, harvest, and satisfaction. Managers should carefully assess hunting activity, hunter expectations and desires, and hunting area characteristics when considering access restrictions on public hunting areas.     

Weather-Related Indices of Autumn– Winter Dabbling Duck Abundance in Middle North America

ABSTRACT Research on effects of key weather stimuli influencing waterfowl migration during autumn and winter is limited. We investigated relationships between changes in relative abundances of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) and weather variables at midlatitude locations in North America. We used waterfowl survey data from Missouri Conservation Areas and temperature and snow cover data from the Historical Climatology Network to evaluate competing models to explain changes in relative abundance of ducks in Missouri, USA, during autumn-winter, 1995–2005. We found that a cumulative weather severity index model (CumulativeWSI; calculated as mean daily temp - degrees C + no. of consecutive days with mean temp ≤ 0° C + snow depth + no. of consecutive days with snow cover) had the greatest weight of evidence in explaining changes in relative abundance of ducks. We concluded the CumulativeWSI reflected current and cumulative effects of ambient temperatures on energy expenditure by ducks, and snow cover and wetland icing, on food availability for ducks. The CumulativeWSI may be useful in determining potential changes in autumn-winter distributions of North American waterfowl given different climate change projections and associated changes in habitat conservation needs. Future investigations should address interactions between CumulativeWSI and landscape habitat quality, regional waterfowl populations, hunter harvest, and other anthropogenic influences to increase understanding of waterfowl migration during autumn-winter.     

Variation in home-range size and movements of wintering dabbling ducks

Despite a long historical record of radio-tracking analyses, basic home-range information is still lacking for most common waterfowl species, especially during the winter. We investigated how dabbling duck home ranges and daily foraging movements are influenced by extrinsic (site, temperature, date) and intrinsic factors (species, sex, age). We radio-tagged and monitored 125 individuals of three duck species (mallard Anas platyrhynchos, Eurasian teal A. crecca crecca and northern pintail A. acuta) in three French wetlands over four winters. Home-range sizes for a given species varied greatly among our study sites. Moreover, species differed according to home-range structure and distance traveled to reach their foraging grounds (teal had a more patchy home range and traveled farther distances than mallards). Foraging distances increased with temperature and time (over the winter season), but this effect differed among species, suggesting that they behave differently in response to food depletion and/or cold weather. The commuting behavior (i.e., the decision to leave the roost at night for foraging) differed among species and season. Teals were more risk-prone because they were more likely to leave the roost at night. In our study, ducks foraged at distances of 1–2 km from roosts, whereas distances of 2–48 km have been recorded in North America. We suggest that food supply, hunting pressure or population density may account for these inter-continental differences.     

Not all sanctuaries are created equal: variation in protected area selection by wintering mallards

Public lands managed for wildlife frequently provide various forms of sanctuary to increase residency times and allow access to energetic and other habitat resources for waterfowl. The influence of sanctuary type and disturbance regime on resource use and fine-scale movements of waterfowl has not been investigated extensively using currently available transmitter technologies. We examined mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) use of various types of waterfowl sanctuary and non-sanctuary areas in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley region of eastern Arkansas, USA, during winters of 2019–2021. We deployed 105 global positioning system transmitters on mallards at 4 closed-access spatial sanctuaries on or adjacent to Dale Bumpers White River National Wildlife Refuge. We used hourly transmitter locations to examine mallard use of public sanctuary areas, public hunt areas, and private lands using integrated step selection analysis. Public sanctuary areas provided varying levels of protected status, public hunt areas allowed for varying levels of hunting intensity by duck hunters, and private lands were open to waterfowl hunting and other forms of private uses but may or may not have been hunted at any specific frequency. Mallards selected spatial sanctuary and avoided public hunt areas, other sanctuary types, and private lands during the day. In contrast, mallards selected for private lands over spatial sanctuary at night. Mallards tended to avoid areas that allowed duck hunting or used them during the night when risk of harvest mortality was removed. After the hunting season closed, mallards began using areas that previously allowed duck hunting during the day, suggesting that risk was the primary factor influencing site use. Moreover, mallards were 1.6 times more likely to use public daily hunt areas and 2.1 times more likely to use private lands potentially open to hunting during the day than spatial sanctuary 2 weeks after the close of duck hunting season in February. Spatial sanctuaries appear more effective in influencing mallard use than temporal sanctuaries or inviolate sanctuaries, which are commonly used by state and federal agencies. Partial daily, daily, or activity-specific (e.g., no hunting past noon, no hunting 3 days/week, no waterfowl hunting) closures to encourage mallard use of temporal sanctuaries do not appear to reduce the perceived harvest-related risk to mallards enough for them to view these areas as accessible or significantly increase their use.     

Building the Foundation for International Conservation Planning for Breeding Ducks across the U.S. and Canadian Border

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r² = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region.     

The Effect of Sea Level Rise on Dabbling Duck Energetic Carrying Capacity

Waterfowl migrating and overwintering in the Atlantic Flyway depend on adequate availability of wetland plant communities to survive winter and fuel reproduction in the subsequent breeding season. Energetics models are the primary tool employed by conservation planners to estimate energetic carrying capacity based on energy supply and demand in different wetlands to assist with effective habitat conservation. Coastal impoundments have been used to provide a consistent, annual source of energy for migrating and wintering waterfowl. But few studies have attempted to comprehensively assess the relative value of managed coastal impoundments compared with unmanaged tidal salt marshes to wintering waterfowl in the Mid-Atlantic region with further consideration to the effect of sea level rise changing availability. We estimated biomass and energy of preferred foods for 5 dabbling duck species in 7 impoundments and 3 tidal salt marshes over winter by collecting soil core (n = 1,364), nekton (n = 426), and salt marsh snail (Melampus spp.; n = 87) samples in October, January, and April 2011–2013. Food-energy density was greater in freshwater impoundments for nearly all dabbling ducks (range = 183,344–562,089 kcal/ha), and typically greater in brackish impoundments (range = 169,665–357,160 kcal/ha) than most tidal salt marsh communities (range = 55,693–361,429 kcal/ha), whereas mudflat (range = 96,223–137,473 kcal/ha) and subtidal (range = 55,693–136,326 kcal/ha) communities typically contained the least energy. Extrapolating to the state level, we estimated 7.60 × 10⁹–1.14 × 10¹⁰ kcal available within a 16-km buffer from the Delaware Bayshore, depending on species. Combining estimates for daily energy expenditure and food energy, we estimated 2.86 × 10⁷–7.06 × 10⁷ duck energy days currently available to dabbling ducks over winter. We estimated that in the next century, dabbling duck carrying capacities are likely to decrease under all but the most conservative sea level rise scenarios because of the gradual replacement of land-cover types that provide high energy density (i.e., low marsh, high marsh communities) with those that provide low energy density (i.e., subtidal, mudflat communities). Coastal impoundments in Delaware, USA, will provide increasingly important habitat for wintering dabbling ducks in the coming decades provided they are properly maintained and retain their current energetic density because they will contain a growing proportion of the available duck energy days on the landscape. Our research will assist managers in meeting target population goals for dabbling ducks in Delaware and the Mid-Atlantic region by highlighting key differences in the function and value of various wetlands. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Variation in Survival and Harvest Rates in Florida Mottled Duck

The Florida mottled duck (Anas fulvigula fulvigula) inhabits a relatively small range of approximately 90,000 km² within peninsular Florida, USA, and is threatened by habitat loss and genetic introgression with feral mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Moreover, the Florida mottled duck population status has not been assessed for more than a decade. We used band-recovery and recapture data from 2000–2013 to examine geographic and demographic factors that influence the survival of Florida mottled ducks and to determine whether survival and harvest probabilities have changed over time. Mean survival probabilities were higher for birds banded in the southern portion of their Florida range than for those banded in the northern portion and higher for adult males than for adult females in both areas. Harvest probabilities increased in the northern extent of its range in Florida for adults and juveniles and remained relatively constant in the southern portion of its range during the study period. Mean harvest probabilities for adult males in both areas were higher than for adult females. Mean harvest probability for juvenile females was higher than that for juvenile males in the north but was similar between the sexes in the south. Our results suggest that mortality rates are generally greater in the northern portion of the Florida mottled duck range because of regional differences in habitat distribution and permanence and in how mottled ducks and humans use wetlands in these areas. We suggest increasing conservation efforts in the north portion of the Florida mottled duck range and improving inferences from leg banding by incorporating live recapture data. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Waterfowl of a subtropical African floodplain

Many water bodies in arid southern Africa are seasonal and waterfowl habitats become restricted during the dry winters. Nevertheless, some tropical species, such as the white-faced duck, are expanding their ranges into more temperate regions where summer habitats are available, thus increasing pressure on overwintering habitats. The subtropical Pongolo River floodplain is an important overwintering area for a diverse water-fowl community that includes 13 of the 16 species that breed in South Africa and one of the few regular migrants. Historical evidence suggests that numbers of white-faced duck, which represent over 70% of the floodplain community, have increased 10-fold over the last two decades. An abundant, nutritious food (Potamogeton crispus turions) attracts waterfowl to the Pongolo floodplain during winter and an increase in bird fat reserves suggests that they leave for summer breeding grounds in good condition. Unseasonal flood releases from an upstream reservoir may cause low food supplies in late spring before the onset of the summer rainy season when breeding habitats become available. This study emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the role of winter habitats in maintaining waterfowl populations.