How Nemo finds home: the neuroecology of dispersal and of population connectivity in larvae of marine fishes

Nearly all demersal teleost marine fishes have pelagic larval stages lasting from several days to several weeks, during which time they are subject to dispersal. Fish larvae have considerable swimming abilities, and swim in an oriented manner in the sea. Thus, they can influence their dispersal and thereby, the connectivity of their populations. However, the sensory cues marine fish larvae use for orientation in the pelagic environment remain unclear. We review current understanding of these cues and how sensory abilities of larvae develop and are used to achieve orientation with particular emphasis on coral-reef fishes. The use of sound is best understood; it travels well underwater with little attenuation, and is current-independent but location-dependent, so species that primarily utilize sound for orientation will have location-dependent orientation. Larvae of many species and families can hear over a range of ~100-1000 Hz, and can distinguish among sounds. They can localize sources of sounds, but the means by which they do so is unclear. Larvae can hear during much of their pelagic larval phase, and ontogenetically, hearing sensitivity, and frequency range improve dramatically. Species differ in sensitivity to sound and in the rate of improvement in hearing during ontogeny. Due to large differences among-species within families, no significant differences in hearing sensitivity among families have been identified. Thus, distances over which larvae can detect a given sound vary among species and greatly increase ontogenetically. Olfactory cues are current-dependent and location-dependent, so species that primarily utilize olfactory cues will have location-dependent orientation, but must be able to swim upstream to locate sources of odor. Larvae can detect odors (e.g., predators, conspecifics), during most of their pelagic phase, and at least on small scales, can localize sources of odors in shallow water, although whether they can do this in pelagic environments is unknown. Little is known of the ontogeny of olfactory ability or the range over which larvae can localize sources of odors. Imprinting on an odor has been shown in one species of reef-fish. Celestial cues are current- and location-independent, so species that primarily utilize them will have location-independent orientation that can apply over broad scales. Use of sun compass or polarized light for orientation by fish larvae is implied by some behaviors, but has not been proven. Use of neither magnetic fields nor direction of waves for orientation has been shown in marine fish larvae. We highlight research priorities in this area.     

Ontogenetic changes in the critical swimming speed of Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) and Myoxocephalus scorpius (shorthorn sculpin) larvae and the role of temperature

Most studies on behavioural contributions to dispersal and recruitment during early life history stages of fishes have focused on coral reef species. For cold ocean environments, high variation in seasonal temperature and development times suggest that parallel studies on active behaviour are needed for cold-water species. Thus, we examined the critical swimming speed (U_crit) of marine fish larvae from 2 contrasting species: Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) and Myoxocephalus scorpius (shorthorn sculpin), a pelagic and bottom spawner respectively. Within-species comparisons showed that sculpin reared at 6 °C had lower initial U_crit values, but a faster U_crit increase through development compared with 3 °C conspecifics, ultimately resulting in faster critical swimming speeds at metamorphosis (10.5 vs. 9.1 cm·s^− 1). In contrast, although cod larvae reared at 10 °C were faster swimmers at first feeding than 6 °C fish, temperature differences were absent after the first week. These results show that temperature influences the trajectory of larval critical swimming speed development, but that the relationship is species-specific. Although 6 °C sculpin and cod of similar length had equivalent U_crit values, the smaller size of cod at hatch (5.3 vs. 10.8 mm for sculpin) resulted in much lower age-specific U_crit values for cod. These data have significant implications for how swimming activity of the two species might affect dispersal, particularly in the first few weeks post-hatch. Overall, our data suggest that temperature during larval development influences the swimming capacity of cold-water marine fishes, and has important ramifications for biophysical models of dispersal.     

Auditory sensitivity in settlement-stage larvae of coral reef fishes

The larval phase of most species of coral reef fishes is spent away from the reef in the pelagic environment. At the time of settlement, these larvae need to locate a reef, and recent research indicates that sound emanating from reefs may act as a cue to guide them. Here, the auditory abilities of settlement-stage larvae of four species of coral reef fishes (families Pomacentridae, Lutjanidae and Serranidae) and similar-sized individuals of two pelagic species (Carangidae) were tested using an electrophysiological technique, auditory brainstem response (ABR). Five of the six species heard frequencies in the 100–2,000 Hz range, whilst one carangid species did not detect frequencies higher than 800 Hz. The audiograms of the six species were of similar shape, with best hearing at lower frequencies between 100 and 300 Hz. Strong within-species differences were found in hearing sensitivity both among the coral reef species and among the pelagic species. Larvae of the coral reef species had significantly more sensitive hearing than the larvae of the pelagic species. The results suggest that settlement-stage larval reef fishes may be able to detect reef sounds at distances of a few 100 m. If true hearing thresholds are lower than ABR estimates, as indicated in some comparisons of ABR and behavioural methods, the detection distances would be much larger.     

Limited ecological population connectivity suggests low demands on self-recruitment in a tropical inshore marine fish (Eleutheronema tetradactylum: Polynemidae)

The diversity of geographic scales at which marine organisms display genetic variation mirrors the biophysical and ecological complexity of dispersal by pelagic larvae. Yet little is known about the effect of larval ecology on genetic population patterns, partly because detailed data of larval ecology do not yet exist for most taxa. One species for which this data is available is Eleutheronema tetradactylum, a tropical Indo-West Pacific shorefish. Here, we use a partial sequence mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI) marker and five microsatellite loci to survey the genetic structure of E. tetradactylum across northern Australia. Structure was found throughout the range and isolation by distance was strong, explaining approximately 87 and 64% of the genetic variation in microsatellites and mtDNA, respectively. Populations separated by as little as 15 km also showed significant genetic structure, implying that local populations are mainly insular and self-seeding on an ecological time frame. Because the larvae of E. tetradactylum have lower swimming performance and poor orientation compared with other tropical fishes, even modest larval abilities may permit self-recruitment rather than passive dispersal.     

Dispersal Patterns,Active Behaviour,and Flow Environment during Early Life History of Coastal Cold Water Fishes

During the pelagic larval phase, fish dispersal may be influenced passively by surface currents or actively determined by swimming behaviour. In situ observations of larval swimming are few given the constraints of field sampling. Active behaviour is therefore often inferred from spatial patterns in the field, laboratory studies, or hydrodynamic theory, but rarely are these approaches considered in concert. Ichthyoplankton survey data collected during 2004 and 2006 from coastal Newfoundland show that changes in spatial heterogeneity for multiple species do not conform to predictions based on passive transport. We evaluated the interaction of individual larvae with their environment by calculating Reynolds number as a function of ontogeny. Typically, larvae hatch into a viscous environment in which swimming is inefficient, and later grow into more efficient intermediate and inertial swimming environments. Swimming is therefore closely related to length, not only because of swimming capacity but also in how larvae experience viscosity. Six of eight species sampled demonstrated consistent changes in spatial patchiness and concomitant increases in spatial heterogeneity as they transitioned into more favourable hydrodynamic swimming environments, suggesting an active behavioural element to dispersal. We propose the tandem assessment of spatial heterogeneity and hydrodynamic environment as a potential approach to understand and predict the onset of ecologically significant swimming behaviour of larval fishes in the field.     

The adaptive significance of larval dispersal in coral reef fishes

Synopsis Coral reef fishes almost universally disperse over relatively great distances during a pelagic larval phase. Barlow (1981) suggested that this dispersal is adaptive because adult fishes inhabit a patchy, uncertain environment. This reiterated an older idea that the random extinction of local populations necessarily favours dispersal, since ultimately all populations of non-dispersers will disappear. Whereas this view is based on adult survival, we emphasize a less frequent view that substantial larval dispersal may be adaptive when offspring experience patchy and unpredictable survival in the pelagic habitat. We do not address the question of why these animals ‘broadcast’ rather than ‘brood’, but suggest that species committed to pelagic offspring will be under selection to disperse siblings to spread the risk of failure among members of a cohort. Our arguments are supported by a heuristic computer simulation.     

Behaviour of pelagic larvae of four coral-reef fish species in the ocean and an atoll lagoon

In-situ behaviour of settlement-stage larvae (10-30 mm) of four coral-reef fishes - Acanthurus triostegus, Chromis viridis, Neoniphon argenteus and Ptereleotris sp. - differed between lagoon and ocean at Rangiroa Atoll, Tuamotu Islands, French Polynesia. Divers released 130 larvae individually in midwater, and recorded larval swimming speed, depth and direction. All species swam faster than average currents, and C. viridis swam faster in the lagoon than in the ocean. Vertical distribution behaviour of all species differed between ocean and lagoon, generally by larvae swimming deeper in the ocean. Nearly all individual larvae swam directionally. Within a species, distribution of average bearings of individual larvae was not directional, nor did it differ between ocean and lagoon. Larvae detected predators 3-6 m away, and stopped or changed depth or direction to avoid them. We therefore reject the 'simplifying assumptions' that reef-fish larvae are passive or that their behaviour is independent of location. Behavioural flexibility of settlement-stage reef-fish larvae has implications for dispersal, retention and population connectivity. This constitutes the first report of larval reef-fish behaviour in the open ocean. However, in the ocean, many larvae descended rapidly below safe diving depth, and adult remoras interfered, making in-situ study of larval behaviour difficult.     

Behavioral responses to light gradients,olfactory cues,and prey in larvae of two North Pacific gadids (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gadus macrocephalus</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Theragra chalcogramma</Emphasis>)

The growth and survival of larvae can be significantly enhanced through close association with patches of high prey concentration. However, the taxis and kinesis responses used by larvae to locate and maintain residence in micro-patches remains poorly understood. In this study, the behavioral responses of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) larvae (45–100 dph) to light, prey scent, and prey were examined. Both species displayed an ontogenetic shift in response to a horizontal light gradient, with small larvae (11–13 mm SL) exhibiting a positive phototaxis and large larvae (23–32 mm SL) exhibiting a negative phototaxis. Whether this reversal is related to ontogenetically appropriate foraging cues or some other aspect of the environment remains to be determined. Neither species displayed significant behavioral responsiveness to the introduction of olfactory prey cues at either size. The aggregating (taxis) response of large larvae to introduction of live prey was stronger than that of small larvae, possibly due to increased reaction distances and encounter rates. In addition, both species exhibited a kinesis response of reducing the frequency of swimming bouts in response to introduction of live prey. These results suggest that the scale of prey patchiness and the physical factors that determine patch encounter rates are a significant determinant of larval growth and survival in the early feeding stages of marine fishes.     

Settlement behaviour of larvae of the Stripey Snapper, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lutjanus carponotatus</Emphasis> (Teleostei: Lutjanidae)

Larval behaviour is important to dispersal and settlement, but is seldom quantified. Behavioural capabilities of larval Lutjanus carponotatus in both offshore pelagic and reef environments at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef were observed in situ to determine if they were sufficient to influence dispersal. Offshore, larvae swam with higher directional precision and faster on the windward side of the island (28 cm.s⁻¹) than on the leeward side (16 cm s⁻¹). Most larvae swam directionally. Mean swimming directions were southerly in the windward area and northerly in the leeward area. Larvae avoided the surface and remained mostly between 3–15 m. Larvae released near reefs were 2–3 times faster swimming away from reefs (19 cm s⁻¹) than swimming toward or over them (6–8 cm s⁻¹). Speed swimming away was similar to that offshore. Of 41 larvae released near reefs, 73% reached the reef, 59% settled, and 13% of those reaching the reef were eaten. Larvae settled onto hard and soft coral (58%), topographic reef features (29%) and sand and rubble (13%). Settlement depth averaged 5.5 m (2–8 m). Before settling larvae spent up to 800 s over the reef (mean 231 s) and swam up to 53 m (mean 14 m). About half of the larvae interacted with reef residents including predatory attacks and aggressive approaches by residents and aggressive approaches by settling larvae. Settlement behaviour of L. carponotatus was more similar to a serranid than to pomacentrids. Settlement-stage larvae of L. carponotatus are behaviourally capable, and have a complex settlement behaviour.     

Travel with your kin ship! Insights from genetic sibship among settlers of a coral damselfish

Coral reef fish larvae are tiny, exceedingly numerous, and hard to track. They are also highly capable, equipped with swimming and sensory abilities that may influence their dispersal trajectories. Despite the importance of larval input to the dynamics of a population, we remain reliant on indirect insights to the processes influencing larval behavior and transport. Here, we used genetic data (300 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms) derived from a light trap sample of a single recruitment event of Dascyllus abudafur in the Red Sea (N = 168 settlers). We analyzed the genetic composition of the larvae and assessed whether kinship among these was significantly different from random as evidence for cohesive dispersal during the larval phase. We used Monte Carlo simulations of similar‐sized recruitment cohorts to compare the expected kinship composition relative to our empirical data. The high number of siblings within the empirical cohort strongly suggests cohesive dispersal among larvae. This work highlights the utility of kinship analysis as a means of inferring dynamics during the pelagic larval phase.     

Identifying the ichthyoplankton of a coral reef using DNA barcodes

Marine fishes exhibit spectacular phenotypic changes during their ontogeny, and the identification of their early stages is challenging due to the paucity of diagnostic morphological characters at the species level. Meanwhile, the importance of early life stages in dispersal and connectivity has recently experienced an increasing interest in conservation programmes for coral reef fishes. This study aims at assessing the effectiveness of DNA barcoding for the automated identification of coral reef fish larvae through large‐scale ecosystemic sampling. Fish larvae were mainly collected using bongo nets and light traps around Moorea between September 2008 and August 2010 in 10 sites distributed in open waters. Fish larvae ranged from 2 to 100 mm of total length, with the most abundant individuals being <5 mm. Among the 505 individuals DNA barcoded, 373 larvae (i.e. 75%) were identified to the species level. A total of 106 species were detected, among which 11 corresponded to pelagic and bathypelagic species, while 95 corresponded to species observed at the adult stage on neighbouring reefs. This study highlights the benefits and pitfalls of using standardized molecular systems for species identification and illustrates the new possibilities enabled by DNA barcoding for future work on coral reef fish larval ecology.     

Response to ocean acidification in larvae of a large tropical marine fish,Rachycentron canadum

Currently, ocean acidification is occurring at a faster rate than at any time in the last 300 million years, posing an ecological challenge to marine organisms globally. There is a critical need to understand the effects of acidification on the vulnerable larval stages of marine fishes, as there is potential for large ecological and economic impacts on fish populations and the human economies that rely on them. We expand upon the narrow taxonomic scope found in the literature today, which overlooks many life history characteristics of harvested species, by reporting on the larvae of Rachycentron canadum (cobia), a large, highly mobile, pelagic‐spawning, widely distributed species with a life history and fishery value contrasting other species studied to date. We raised larval cobia through the first 3 weeks of ontogeny under conditions of predicted future ocean acidification to determine effects on somatic growth, development, otolith formation, swimming ability, and swimming activity. Cobia exhibited resistance to treatment effects on growth, development, swimming ability, and swimming activity at 800 and 2100 μatm pCO₂. However, these scenarios resulted in a significant increase in otolith size (up to 25% larger area) at the lowest pCO₂ levels reported to date, as well as the first report of significantly wider daily otolith growth increments. When raised under more extreme scenarios of 3500 and 5400 μatm pCO₂, cobia exhibited significantly reduced size‐at‐age (up to 25% smaller) and a 2–3 days developmental delay. The robust nature of cobia may be due to the naturally variable environmental conditions this species currently encounters throughout ontogeny in coastal environments, which may lead to an increased acclimatization ability even during long‐term exposure to stressors.     

What can population genetics tell us about dispersal and biogeographic history of coral-reef fishes?

Abstract Coral-reef fishes, like many other marine organisms, generally possess a benthic adult stage and pelagic larval stage. What can population genetics studies tell us about the demographic, evolutionary and biogeographic consequences of this life cycle? Ten studies of geographical patterns of intraspecific genetic differentiation in reef fishes have been published. These studies have included 2t > species/species complexes (14 in the family Pomacentridae, the remaining 12 in 9 different families) and have been about equally divided between the tropical Pacific and the tropical western Atlantic. A survey of these studies shows the following: (i) the existence of the pelagic larval stage appears to have led to high levels of gene flow even among populations separated by thousands of kilometres of open ocean; (ii) an apparent pattern of increased gene flow among populations connected by intermediate 'stepping stones’; (iii) very tentative evidence for a relationship between length of pelagic larval life and gene flow; (iv) no clear relationship between egg type (pelagic rs non-pelagic) and gene flow; and (v) suggestive evidence that damselfishes (family Pomacentridae) may have more restricted dispersal (less gene flow) than other reef fishes. The application of current and future molecular tools has the strong potential to clarify some of these relationships, particularly by using relatively neutral genetic markers. Additionally, discoveries of DNA markers having very high rates of mutation may allow tracking of demographically relevant levels of larval dispersal. Molecular tools are becoming especially valuable in uncovering the biogeographic and phylogenetic history of reef fishes. The one molecular study to date has suggested that at least some speciation events may have occurred during the climate changes and sea-level regressions associated with Pleistocene glacial episodes. Molecular tools need to be used to further explore the means by which high species diversity can be generated in the face of the apparently high gene flow observed in most coral-reef fishes.     

Modelling larval dispersal and behaviour of coral reef fishes

Coral reef fish spend their first few weeks developing in the open ocean, where eggs and larvae appear merciless to tides and currents, before attempting to leave the pelagic zone and settle on a suitable reef. This pelagic dispersal phase is the process that determines population connectivity and allows replenishment of harvested populations across multiple coral reef habitats. Until recently this pelagic larval dispersal phase has been poorly understood and has often been referred to as the ‘black-box’ in the life-history of coral reef fishes. In this perspective article we highlight three areas where mathematical and computational approaches have been used to aid our understanding of this important ecological process. We discuss models that provide insights into the evolution of the pelagic larval phase in coral reef fish, an unresolved question which lends itself well to a modelling approach due to the difficulty in obtaining empirical data on this life history strategy. We describe how studies of fish hearing and physical sound propagation models can be used to predict the detection distance of reefs for settling larval fish, and the potential impact of anthropogenic noise. We explain how random walk models can be used to explore individual- and group-level behaviour in larval fish during the dispersal and settlement stage of their life-history. Finally, we discuss the mutual benefits that mathematical and computational approaches have brought to and gained from the field of larval behaviour and dispersal of reef fishes.     

Maximum sustainable swimming speeds of late-stage larvae of nine species of reef fishes

We examined the maximum sustainable swimming speed of late-stage larvae of nine species of tropical reef fishes from around Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Larvae were captured in light traps and were swum in flumes at different experimental swimming speeds (of 5 cm s⁻¹ intervals) continuously for 24 h. Logistic regression was used to determine the speed at which 90% of larvae were able to maintain swimming, and this was used to indicate the maximum sustainable swimming speed for each species. Maximum sustainable swimming speeds varied among the species examined, with the lethrinid maintaining the fastest sustainable swimming speed (24 cm s⁻¹), followed by the Pomacentridae (10-20 cm s⁻¹) and the Apogonidae (8-12 cm s⁻¹). U-crit (maximum speed) explained 64% of the variation in sustainable speed among species, whereas total length only explained 33% of the variation in sustained swimming. A regression fitted across species suggests that 50% U-crit is a good approximation of the speed able to be maintained by these larvae for 24 h. A model based on a cubic relationship between sustained swimming time and speed was found to be more successful than either length or U-crit as a method of estimating sustainable swimming speed for most of the species examined. Overall, we found that swimming speed is an important factor when considering the potential for active swimming behaviour to influence dispersal patterns, recruitment success and levels of self-recruitment in reef fish larvae and needs to be carefully considered in models of larval dispersal.     

Close encounters with eddies: oceanographic features increase growth of larval reef fishes during their journey to the reef

Like most benthic marine organisms, coral reef fishes produce larvae that traverse open ocean waters before settling and metamorphosing into juveniles. Where larvae are transported and how they survive is a central question in marine and fisheries ecology. While there is increasing success in modelling potential larval trajectories, our knowledge of the physical and biological processes contributing to larval survivorship during dispersal remains relatively poor. Mesoscale eddies (MEs) are ubiquitous throughout the world''s oceans and their propagation is often accompanied by upwelling and increased productivity. Enhanced production suggests that eddies may serve as important habitat for the larval stages of marine organisms, yet there is a lack of empirical data on the growth rates of larvae associated with these eddies. During three cruises in the Straits of Florida, we sampled larval fishes inside and outside five cyclonic MEs. Otolith microstructure analysis revealed that four of five species of reef fish examined had consistently faster growth inside these eddies. Because increased larval growth often leads to higher survivorship, larvae that encounter MEs during transit are more likely to contribute to reef populations. Successful dispersal in oligotrophic waters may rely on larval encounter with such oceanographic features.     

Do early life history characteristics determine species ranges and dispersal of coral reef fishes in the Indo‐Pacific?

The Indo‐Pacific consists of extensive continuous coastlines and many island groups of varying sizes and isolation. The species ranges of coral reef fishes vary enormously from Indo‐Pacific wide to highly endemic. There is also great variation in the early life history characteristics of coral reef fishes ( e.g . pelagic larval durations, spawning strategies and swimming abilities). We use individual‐based models (IBMs) to simulate the dispersal of coral reef fishes in the Indo‐Pacific. The development of dispersal strategies is explored based on ecological and geographical constraints. Simulations are presented for climatic and anthropogenically‐induced events.     

Climate change and coral reef connectivity

This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future.     

Pelagic larval duration and population connectivity in New Zealand triplefin fishes (Tripterygiidae)

The relationship between pelagic larval duration (PLD) and population connectivity in marine fishes has been controversial, but most studies to date have focused on tropical taxa. Here, we examine PLD in 11 species of triplefin fishes from a temperate environment in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand, to describe daily increment patterns and settlement marks in the otoliths. The formation of daily increments was validated using larvae of known age and tetracycline marking of settled juveniles. Settlement mark identity was verified by comparing total increment counts from otoliths of recently settled fishes with PLD counts from post-settlement fishes. A similar pattern of three groups of increments across the otolith was found in all specimens examined. The settlement mark was similar in all species and occurred as a sharp drop in increment width within the area of transition in optical density. PLD was lengthy, compared to species of triplefins from elsewhere, and ranged between 54.4 ± 1.7 SE days in Bellapiscis lesleyae to 86.4 ± 2.6 SE days in Forsterygion malcolmi. Variation in PLD within species was high but did not mask interspecific differences. PLD was not phylogenetically constrained, as sister species differed significantly in PLD. PLD was compared with genetic population connectivity for eight of the study species using mitochondrial gene flow data from Hickey, Lavery, Hannan, Baker, Clements. Mol Ecol 18:680–696 (2009). The observed lack of correlation between PLD and gene flow suggests that dispersal is limited by other factors, such as larval behaviour and the availability of settlement habitat.     

Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival

Human‐induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has rarely been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy‐resolving ocean model in south‐eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross‐current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south‐eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270 km in the model simulation. Thus, ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to climate‐induced changes of species ranges.