A UNIFIED MODEL FOR THE COEVOLUTION OF RESISTANCE,TOLERANCE, AND VIRULENCE

We present a general host–parasite model that unifies previous theory by investigating the coevolution of virulence, resistance, and tolerance, with respect to multiple physiological, epidemiological, and environmental parameters. Four sets of new predictions emerge. First, compared to virulence coevolving with resistance or tolerance, three‐trait coevolution promotes more virulence and less tolerance, and broadens conditions under which pure defenses evolve. Second, the cost and efficiency of virulence and the epidemiological rates are the key factors of virulence coevolving with resistance and tolerance. Maximum virulence evolves for intermediate infection rate, at which coevolved levels of resistance and tolerance are both high. The influence of host and parasite background mortalities is strong on the evolution of defenses and weak on the coevolution of virulence. Third, evolutionary correlations between defenses can switch sign along single‐parameter gradients. The evolutionary trade‐off between resistance and tolerance may coevolve with virulence that either increases or decreases monotonically, depending on the underlying parameter gradient. Fourth, despite global attractiveness and stability of coevolutionary equilibria, not‐so‐rare and not‐so‐small mutations can beget large variation in virulence and defenses around equilibrium, in the form of transient “evolutionary spikes.” Implications for evolutionary management of infections are discussed and directions for future research are outlined.     

Evolution of parasite virulence against qualitative or quantitative host resistance

We analysed the effects of two different modes of host resistance on the evolution of parasite virulence. Hosts can either adopt an all-or-nothing qualitative response (i.e. resistant hosts cannot be infected) or a quantitative form of resistance (i.e. which reduces the within-host growth rate of the parasite). We show that the mode of host resistance greatly affects the evolutionary outcome. Specifically, a qualitative form of resistance reduces parasite virulence, while a quantitative form of resistance generally selects for higher virulence.     

Polymorphism in multilocus host parasite coevolutionary interactions

Numerous loci in host organisms are involved in parasite recognition, such as major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes in vertebrates or genes involved in gene-for-gene (GFG) relationships in plants. Diversity is commonly observed at such loci and at corresponding loci encoding antigenic molecules in parasites. Multilocus theoretical models of host-parasite coevolution predict that polymorphism is more likely than in single-locus interactions because recurrent coevolutionary cycles are sustained by indirect frequency-dependent selection as rare genotypes have a selective advantage. These cycles are stabilized by direct frequency-dependent selection, resulting from repeated reinfection of the same host by a parasite, a feature of most diseases. Here, it is shown that for realistically small costs of resistance and virulence, polycyclic disease and high autoinfection rates, stable polymorphism of all possible genotypes is obtained in parasite populations. Two types of epistatic interactions between loci tend to increase the parameter space in which stable polymorphism can occur with all possible host and parasite genotypes. In the parasite, the marginal cost of each additional virulence allele should increase, while in the host, the marginal cost of each additional resistance allele should decrease. It is therefore predicted that GFG polymorphism will be stable (and hence detectable) when there is partial complementation of avirulence genes in the parasite and of resistance genes in the host.     

Heterogeneous selection promotes maintenance of polymorphism in host–parasite interactions

Polymorphism in loci affecting host resistance and parasite virulence is characteristic for nearly all species and this genetic variation is considered to have profound consequences for the patterns of disease incidence, prevalence and evolution. The gene-for-gene (GFG) system is a well-characterized genetic interaction of host recognition and parasite antigenic loci for a wide range of plant-parasite interactions. Long-term maintenance of polymorphism in GFG systems has remained puzzling for both theoreticians and empiricists. Traditionally this diversity has been explained by tradeoffs with other life-history traits closely linked with fitness, yet empirical evidence for such costs has remained mixed. Here we argue that incorporating simple ecological reality – spatial structuring and gradient of environmental conditions – into host–parasite research will help us understand how polymorphism is maintained. While environmental conditions (biotic and abiotic factors) have been studied in depth in plant pathology for their influence on disease severity and plant yield, they have been rarely set into an evolutionary framework. We briefly review recent data on natural plant–parasite metapopulations and theoretical models moving from single population models towards metapopulation theory to reveal in just how many ways spatial structuring may affect the coevolutionary process. We clarify also how spatially heterogeneous selection, through G×E (or G×G×E) interactions, may be particularly important for natural host–parasite interactions and suggest that this provides the unifying ground upon which future theoretical and empirical work should be build on.     

Parasite evolution in response to sex‐based host heterogeneity in resistance and tolerance

Heterogenity between sexes in terms of both the level and the type of immune response to infection is documented in many species, but its role on parasite evolution is only beginning to be explored. We adopt an evolutionary epidemiology approach to study how the ability of a host to respond to infection through active immunity (resistance) or through minimizing deleterious effects of a given parasite load (tolerance) affects the evolution of parasite virulence. Consistently with earlier models, we find that increases in host resistance and tolerance both favour more virulent parasite strains. However, we show that qualitatively different results can be obtained if dimorphism between the sexes occurs through resistance or through tolerance depending on the contact pattern between the sexes. Finally, we find that variations in host sex ratio can amplify the consequences of heterogeneity for parasite evolution. These results are analysed in the light of several examples from the literature to illustrate the prevalence of sexually dimorphic immune responses and the potential for further study of the role of sexual dimorphism on parasite evolution. Such studies are likely to be highly relevant for improving treatment of chronic infections and control of infectious diseases, and understanding the role of sex in immune function.     

Antagonistic coevolution with parasites increases the cost of host deleterious mutations

The fitness consequences of deleterious mutations are sometimes greater when individuals are parasitized, hence parasites may result in the more rapid purging of deleterious mutations from host populations. The significance of host deleterious mutations when hosts and parasites antagonistically coevolve (reciprocal evolution of host resistance and parasite infectivity) has not previously been experimentally investigated. We addressed this by coevolving the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens and a parasitic bacteriophage in laboratory microcosms, using bacteria with high and low mutation loads. Directional coevolution between bacterial resistance and phage infectivity occurred in all populations. Bacterial population fitness, as measured by competition experiments with ancestral genotypes in the absence of phage, declined with time spent coevolving. However, this decline was significantly more rapid in bacteria with high mutation loads, suggesting the cost of bacterial resistance to phage was greater in the presence of deleterious mutations (synergistic epistasis). As such, resistance to phage was more costly to evolve in the presence of a high mutation load. Consistent with these data, bacteria with high mutation loads underwent less rapid directional coevolution with their phage populations, and showed lower levels of resistance to their coevolving phage populations. These data suggest that coevolution with parasites increases the rate at which deleterious mutations are purged from host populations.     

Spatial structure,host heterogeneity and parasite virulence: implications for vaccine‐driven evolution

Natural host‐parasite interactions exhibit considerable variation in host quality, with profound consequences for disease ecology and evolution. For instance, treatments (such as vaccination) may select for more transmissible or virulent strains. Previous theory has addressed the ecological and evolutionary impact of host heterogeneity under the assumption that hosts and parasites disperse globally. Here, we investigate the joint effects of host heterogeneity and local dispersal on the evolution of parasite life‐history traits. We first formalise a general theoretical framework combining variation in host quality and spatial structure. We then apply this model to the specific problem of parasite evolution following vaccination. We show that, depending on the type of vaccine, spatial structure may select for higher or lower virulence compared to the predictions of non‐spatial theory. We discuss the implications of our results for disease management, and their broader fundamental relevance for other causes of host heterogeneity in nature.     

Genetics of host-parasite interactions

The evolution of host susceptibility or resistance to parasites has important consequences for the evolution of parasite virulence, host sexual selection, population dynamics of both host and parasite populations, and programs of biological control. The general observation of a fraction of Individuals within a population that is not parasitized, and/or the variability in parasite intensity among hosts, may reflect several phenomena acting at different levels of ecological organization. Yet, host-parasite coevolution requires host susceptibility and parasite virulence to be genetically variable. In spite of evolutionary and epidemiological implications of genetic heterogeneities in host-parasite systems, evidence concerning natural populations is still scarce. Here, we wish to emphasize why we need a better knowledge of the genetics of host-parasite interaction in natural populations and to review the evidence concerning the heritability of host susceptibility or resistance to parasites in natural populations of animals.     

Experimental evolution with a multicellular host causes diversification within and between microbial parasite populations—Differences in emerging phenotypes of two different parasite strains

Host‐parasite coevolution is predicted to have complex evolutionary consequences, potentially leading to the emergence of genetic and phenotypic diversity for both antagonists. However, little is known about variation in phenotypic responses to coevolution between different parasite strains exposed to the same experimental conditions. We infected Caenorhabditis elegans with one of two strains of Bacillus thuringiensis and either allowed the host and the parasite to experimentally coevolve (coevolution treatment) or allowed only the parasite to adapt to the host (one‐sided parasite adaptation). By isolating single parasite clones from evolved populations, we found phenotypic diversification of the ancestral strain into distinct clones, which varied in virulence toward ancestral hosts and competitive ability against other parasite genotypes. Parasite phenotypes differed remarkably not only between the two strains, but also between and within different replicate populations, indicating diversification of the clonal population caused by selection. This study highlights that the evolutionary selection pressure mediated by a multicellular host causes phenotypic diversification, but not necessarily with the same phenotypic outcome for different parasite strains.     

Multiple infections, immune dynamics, and the evolution of virulence

Understanding the effect of multiple infections is essential for the prediction (and eventual control) of virulence evolution. Some theoretical studies have considered the possibility that several strains coexist in the same host (coinfection), but few have taken their within-host dynamics explicitly into account. Here, we develop a nested approach based on a simple model for the interaction of parasite strains with their host's immune system. We study virulence evolution by linking the within-host dynamics to an epidemiological framework that incorporates multiple infections. Our model suggests that antigenically similar parasite strains cannot coexist in the long term inside a host. We also find that the optimal level of virulence increases with the efficiency of multiple infections. Finally, we notice that coinfections create heterogeneity in the host population (with susceptible hosts and infected hosts), which can lead to evolutionary branching in the parasite population and the emergence of a hypervirulent parasite strategy. We interpret this result as a parasite specialization to the infectious state of the hosts. Our study has experimental and theoretical implications in a virulence management perspective.     

The role of trade-off shapes in the evolution of parasites in spatial host populations: an approximate analytical approach

Given the substantial changes in mixing in many populations, there is considerable interest in the role that spatial structure can play in the evolution of disease. Here we examine the role of different trade-off shapes in the evolution of parasites in a spatially structured host population where infection can occur locally or globally. We develop an approximate adaptive dynamic analytical approach, to examine how the evolutionarily stable (ES) virulence depends not only on the fraction of global infection/transmission but also on the shape of the trade-off between transmission and virulence. Our analysis can successfully predict the ES virulence found previously by simulation of the full system. The analysis confirms that when there is a linear trade-off between transmission and virulence spatial structure may lead to an ES virulence that increases as the proportion of global transmission increases. However, we also show that the ESS disappears above a threshold level of global infection, leading to maximization. In addition just below this threshold, there is the possibility of evolutionary bi-stabilities. When we assume the realistic trade-off between transmission and virulence that results in an ESS in the classical mixed model, we find that spatial structure can increase or decrease the ES virulence. A relatively high proportion of local infection reduces virulence but intermediate levels can select for higher virulence. Our work not only emphasizes the importance of spatial structure to the evolution of parasites, but also makes it clear that situations between the local and the global need to be considered. We also emphasize the key role that the shape of trade-offs plays in evolutionary outcomes.     

Host-parasite coevolution in a multilocus gene-for-gene system.

This paper examines a mathematical model for the coevolution of parasite virulence and host resistance under a multilocus gene-for-gene interaction. The degrees of parasite virulence and host resistance show coevolutionary cycles for sufficiently small costs of virulence and resistance. Besides these coevolutionary cycles of a longer period, multilocus genotype frequencies show complex fluctuations over shorter periods. All multilocus genotypes are maintained within host and parasite classes having the same number of resistant/virulent alleles and their frequencies fluctuate with approximately equally displaced phases. If either the cost of virulence or the number of resistance loci is larger then a threshold, the host maintains the static polymorphism of singly (or doubly or more, depending on the cost of resistance) resistant genotypes and the parasite remains universally avirulent. In other words, host polymorphism can prevent the invasion of any virulent strain in the parasite. Thus, although assuming an empirically common type of asymmetrical gene-for-gene interaction, both host and parasite populations can maintain polymorphism in each locus and retain complex fluctuations. Implications for the red queen hypothesis of the evolution of sex and the control of multiple drug resistance are discussed.     

Immune defence, parasite evasion strategies and their relevance for 'macroscopic phenomena' such as virulence

The discussion of host-parasite interactions, and of parasite virulence more specifically, has so far, with a few exceptions, not focused much attention on the accumulating evidence that immune evasion by parasites is not only almost universal but also often linked to pathogenesis, i.e. the appearance of virulence. Now, the immune evasion hypothesis offers a deeper insight into the evolution of virulence than previous hypotheses. Sensitivity analysis for parasite fitness and life-history theory shows promise to generate a more general evolutionary theory of virulence by including a major element, immune evasion to prevent parasite clearance from the host. Also, the study of dose-response relationships and multiple infections should be particularly illuminating to understand the evolution of virulence. Taking into account immune evasion brings immunological processes to the core of understanding the evolution of parasite virulence and for a range of related issues such as dose, host specificity or immunopathology. The aim of this review is to highlight the mechanism underlying immune evasion and to discuss possible consequences for the evolutionary ecology analysis of host-parasite interactions.     

Immunity promotes virulence evolution in a malaria model

Evolutionary models predict that host immunity will shape the evolution of parasite virulence. While some assumptions of these models have been tested, the actual evolutionary outcome of immune selection on virulence has not. Using the mouse malaria model, Plasmodium chabaudi, we experimentally tested whether immune pressure promotes the evolution of more virulent pathogens by evolving parasite lines in immunized and nonimmunized (“naïve”) mice using serial passage. We found that parasite lines evolved in immunized mice became more virulent to both naïve and immune mice than lines evolved in naïve mice. When these evolved lines were transmitted through mosquitoes, there was a general reduction in virulence across all lines. However, the immune-selected lines remained more virulent to naïve mice than the naïve-selected lines, though not to immunized mice. Thus, immune selection accelerated the rate of virulence evolution, rendering parasites more dangerous to naïve hosts. These results argue for further consideration of the evolutionary consequences for pathogen virulence of vaccination.     

Acute or chronic? Within-host models with immune dynamics, infection outcome, and parasite evolution

There is ample theoretical and experimental evidence that virulence evolution depends on the immune response of the host. In this article, we review a number of recent studies that attempt to explicitly incorporate the dynamics of the immune system (instead of merely representing it by a single black box parameter) in models for the evolution of parasite virulence. A striking observation is that the type of infection (acute or chronic) is invariably considered to be a constraint that model assumptions have to satisfy rather than as a potential outcome of the interaction of the parasite with its host's immune system. We argue that avoiding making assumptions about the type of infection will lead to a better understanding of infectious diseases, even though a number of fundamental and technical problems remain. Dynamical modeling of the immune system opens a wide range of perspectives: for understanding how the immune system eradicates a parasite (which it does for most pathogens but not for all, HIV being a notorious example of a virus that is not completely eliminated), for studying multiple infections through concomitant immunity, for understanding the emergence and evolution of the immune system in animals, and for evolutionary epidemiology in general (e.g., predicting evolutionary consequences of new therapies and public health policies). We conclude by discussing new approaches based on embedded (or nested) models and identify future perspectives for the modeling of infectious diseases.     

Red queen meets Santa Rosalia: arms races and the evolution of host specialization in organisms with parasitic lifestyles

I argue that nonequilibrium allele frequency dynamics due to coevolution can drive the evolution of specialized host races in parasites capable of host choice-for example, herbivorous insects or parasitoids. The proposed mechanism does not require genetic trade-offs in performance on different host species. It is based on the premise that the ability of the parasite to overcome the resistance of different host species is to a large degree genetically independent-that is, controlled by different loci. The intuitive rationale is that the genetic lineage of a parasite that evolves host preference becomes more consistently exposed to selection for performance on its preferred host. Such a choosy lineage can thus coevolve faster in response to evolving host defenses than a generalist lineage distributed among several host species. Given genetic variation in host preference, an initially generalist parasite population evolves toward specialized host races, each choosing one host species. This idea is supported by a series of multilocus models of coevolution between a parasite and two host species, in which the parasite virulence on each host is affected by a different set of loci and an additional locus or two loci control host choice.     

HOST LIFE HISTORY AND THE EVOLUTION OF PARASITE VIRULENCE

Abstract.— We present a general epidemiological model of host‐parasite interactions that includes various forms of superinfection. We use this model to study the effects of different host life‐history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence. In particular, we analyze the effects of natural host death rate on the evolutionarily stable parasite virulence. We show that, contrary to classical predictions, an increase in the natural host death rate may select for lower parasite virulence if some form of superinfection occurs. This result is in agreement with the experimental results and the verbal argument presented by Ebert and Mangin (1997). This experiment is discussed in the light of the present model. We also point out the importance of superinfections for the effect of nonspecific immunity on the evolution of virulence. In a broader perspective, this model demonstrates that the occurrence of multiple infections may qualitatively alter classical predictions concerning the effects of various host life‐history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence.     

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics in a coevolving host–virus system

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics have been shown to be important for understanding population and community stability and their adaptive potential. However, coevolution in the framework of eco‐evolutionary theory has not been addressed directly. Combining experiments with an algal host and its viral parasite, and mathematical model analyses we show eco‐evolutionary dynamics in antagonistic coevolving populations. The interaction between antagonists initially resulted in arms race dynamics (ARD) with selective sweeps, causing oscillating host–virus population dynamics. However, ARD ended and populations stabilised after the evolution of a general resistant host, whereas a trade‐off between host resistance and growth then maintained host diversity over time (trade‐off driven dynamics). Most importantly, our study shows that the interaction between ecology and evolution had important consequences for the predictability of the mode and tempo of adaptive change and for the stability and adaptive potential of populations.     

Coevolution between parasite virulence and host life-history traits

Epidemiological models generally explore the evolution of parasite life-history traits, namely, virulence and transmission, against a background of constant host life-history traits. However, life-history models have predicted the evolution of host traits in response to parasitism. The coevolution of host and parasite life-history traits remains largely unexplored. We present an epidemiological model, based on resource allocation theory, that provides an analysis of the coevolution between host reproductive effort and parasite virulence. This model allows for hosts with either a fixed (i.e., genetic) or conditional (i.e., a phenotypically plastic) response to parasitism. It also considers superinfections. We show that parasitism always favors increased allocation to host reproduction, but because of epidemiological feedbacks, the evolutionarily stable host reproductive effort does not always increase with parasite virulence. Superinfection drives the evolution of parasite virulence and acts on the evolution of the host through parasite evolution, generally leading to higher host reproductive effort. Coevolution, as opposed to cases where only one of the antagonists evolves, may generate correlations between host and parasite life-history traits across environmental gradients affecting the fecundity or the survival of the host. Our results provide a theoretical framework against which experimental coevolution outcomes or field observations can be contrasted.