气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

祁连圆柏具有良好的水土保持功能,是青海省高寒干旱地区造林绿化的优良乡土树种之一,预测未来气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布将为祁连圆柏的经营管理和引种栽培提供理论指导。本研究基于实地调查和资料搜集获得88个有效地理分布样点,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布进行模拟,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析影响祁连圆柏潜在分布的主导限制因子,同时结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式数据,预测祁连圆柏在3种(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)气候变化情景下2061—2080年潜在适生区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)都大于0.92,具有较好的预测能力。在当前气候条件下,祁连圆柏的适宜分布区主要位于青海省东部,总适宜区面积占比为11.2%,影响其地理分布的主导因子是海拔、年均降水量、极端最低温和坡度,累计贡献率为85.9%。未来3种气候情景对祁连圆柏适宜区的影响存在差异,SSP245气候情景的适宜区面积将会缩减,SSP126和SSP585气候情景下则会不同程度地扩张,SSP126气候情景的扩张最明显,其扩张区域主要位于泽库县、河南蒙古族自治县中北部和祁连县东南部地区。在未来3种气候情景下,祁连圆柏适宜分布区逐渐向高海拔地区迁移,但在经纬度方向分布变化较小,适宜区总体稳定。     

麻栎在中国的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

基于19个生物气候因子和473个地理分布记录,利用DIVA-GIS软件,分析了麻栎在中国的地理分布与气候的关系及其潜在分布区。结果表明:中国麻栎分布在18°~41°N、91°~123°E之间,其地理分布可划分为6个区,其中横断山脉区、云贵高原区、秦岭巴山区比较集中;分布区跨越7个温度带、3个干湿区、18个气候区,包括9种气候类型;适宜麻栎生长的年均温度为5.1℃~20.7℃,年降雨量为471~1 712.6mm;影响麻栎地理分布的主导因子依次为湿度因子、耐旱能力和温度因子。BIOCLIM模型预测显示,麻栎潜在分布区与实际分布区具有很好的一致性,其最适分布区位于云贵高原中部和秦岭巴山区;在CO2浓度倍增的未来气候情景下,麻栎潜在分布区面积将缩小,且有向北方和高海拔地区扩散的趋势。ROC曲线分析表明,BIOCLIM模型的模拟精度较高(AUC=0.826)。研究结果对于合理经营利用麻栎林具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

气候变化条件下苦参在我国潜在分布区的预测分析

为了解气候变化情景下苦参在中国的潜在分布区变化,探讨生物气候因子与苦参适宜分布格局的关系.该文通过收集苦参的地理分布点并结合19项生态因子,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)对末次盛冰期、当前气候、未来气候三种气候情景下苦参在我国适生区的分布格局进行模拟,并分析影响苦参生长的主导生态因子.结果...     

西北干旱区10种荒漠植物地理分布与大气候的关系及其可能潜在分布区的估测

 选择面积广阔、地理位置特殊、气候干旱、地形地貌多样、生态系统脆弱以及人类活动长期干扰,而且目前面临着西部大开发和环境保护双重矛盾的西北干旱区作为研究区域,通过收集西北干旱区多种优势种和常见种的地理分布资料,选取10 种分布范围相对明确、资料相对齐备的荒漠植物种：短叶假木贼（Anabasis brevifolia）、木蓼（Atraphaxis frutescens）、沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum）、膜果麻黄（Ephedra przewalskii）、裸果木（Gymnocarpos przewalskii）、梭梭柴（Haloxylon ammodendron）、白梭梭（Haloxylon persicum）、尖叶盐爪爪（Kalidium cuspidatum）、松叶猪毛菜（Salsola laricifolia）和合头草（Sympegma regelii）,定量分析其地理分布与气候因子的关系,并据此估测其潜在中心分布区和潜在最大分布范围,与实际分布范围进行比较。结果表明,10种荒漠植物的Holdridge生物温度、降水量和可能蒸散率的平均值、标准差、最大值和最小值比较准确地反映了我国荒漠地区的典型气候特征,说明植物种分布与气候的定量对应关系较好。其可能潜在分布的估测中,中心分布估测图与植物种的实际分布范围有较好的对应性,而在最大可能分布的估测图中,与实际有一定误差及存在一些不合理的地方,但种与种之间有差异。究其原因,首先在于目前所拥有的植物种分布和气象资料的限制,而且植物种的实际分布范围受到人为活动的影响较大,所以无法完全把握植物种与气候的准确定量关系;其次,气候极值所预测的只是植物种分布的最大可能性,而不能表现出植物种现实分布的主要地区,气候均值与标准差所反映的中心分布区,其准确性更可靠;再者,模拟预测仅考虑了植物种与大气候的关系,而没有考虑决定植物分布的其它环境因素,如土壤、基质、地形等地理因素。     

基于MaxEnt模型预测未来气候变化情境下红树秋茄(Kandelia obovata)在中国潜在适生区的变化

红树秋茄为自然分布于我国南方热带与亚热带潮间带的木本植物群落,是淤泥质滩涂上特有的植被类型,由其构成的红树林生境在维持海岸生态系统平衡、湿地生物多样性等方面具有重要作用。全球气候变化影响了红树秋茄的地理分布范围,尤其是其分布北界的变化一直是当前红树研究领域的争论焦点之一。基于MaxEnt模型,筛选了141个秋茄现有分布点,并结合筛选后的14个陆地气候变量和2个海洋表层海洋环境因子,模拟了秋茄种群在不同碳排放情景下的潜在适生分布区域。分析了影响秋茄自然分布的主要环境因子,揭示了其在中国大陆分布北界的演化趋势。根据模型结果,当前模拟的潜在分布区与现有分布范围吻合度较高,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)为0.990,预测结果优良。通过广义加性模型回归验证表明,主要环境因子与秋茄的生境适生性指数呈显著相关,整体方差解释率为94.7%(R²=0.915),说明MaxEnt模型预测结果可靠稳定。基于环境变量贡献率和刀切法的结果表明海洋表层平均水温、等温性、最暖季度降水量、年平均气温、最热月份最高温度等可能是影响秋茄分布的主要环境因子;等温性(bio＿03)为23.43—3...     

BIOME系列模型: 主要原理与应用

 基于过程的平衡态陆地生物圈模型-BIOME系列及其动态发展(LPJ-DGVM: Sitch et al.,2000) 已经成为模拟大尺度(全球至区域)的植被地理分布、净第一性生产力和碳平衡以及预测气候变化对陆地生态系统潜在影响的有效工具。本文综述了BIOME系列模型的发展过程,包括每个模型的主要原理、优点和缺陷,论述了模型在国际以及我国全球变化研究中的应用,并简单讨论了模型未来发展的趋势。以植物功能型作为基本研究单元,BIOME系列模型的控制因素从单纯的生物气候变量和生态生理限制因子(BIOME1),发展     

全球变化格局下重要传粉昆虫大蜜蜂的潜在适生区变化

【目的】当前全球气候变化、土地利用改变、人类活动加剧等正威胁着传粉昆虫的多样性及分布;蜜蜂是生态系统中重要的传粉昆虫类群,对气候、环境变化响应敏感。本研究以重要的传粉昆虫大蜜蜂Apis dorsata为对象,探讨全球变化格局下其潜在适生区变化以及影响其分布的关键因子。【方法】通过文献、馆藏和野外调查系统收集了全球范围内大蜜蜂的物种分布数据,使用13个环境变量通过MaxEnt模型模拟了大蜜蜂当前的潜在适生区;使用9个气候变量并结合公共地球系统模型(CCSM4)模拟了大蜜蜂过去、当前和未来的潜在适生区。【结果】AUC比率显示MaxEnt模型对大蜜蜂的潜在适生区模拟具有较高的准确性,模拟结果表明大蜜蜂的中高潜在适生区主要分布在南亚和东南亚湿润的热带雨林、热带季节性雨林和低地雨林。人类影响、温度季节性变化、等温性、最冷季均温和海拔是影响大蜜蜂潜在适生区的5个最主要因子;在人类影响下大蜜蜂的潜在适生区向山区和连片的湿润常绿森林区收缩,中高潜在适生区显著减少且呈破碎化趋势。基于9个气候变量和CCSM4气候模型对过去、当前和未来的模拟结果显示：在过去的末次冰盛期,东南亚地区可能是大蜜蜂的避难所;在未来,广布于热带地区的大蜜蜂适生区与当前的相近,且部分地区适生指数升高。【结论】基于气候的模拟结果显示大蜜蜂能积极应对未来气候变暖,但随人类活动的加剧及全球气候变化,大蜜蜂仍然面临较大的威胁,需要加强其在南亚和东南亚的中高潜在适生区的重视和保护。     

广义模型及分类回归树在物种分布模拟中的应用与比较

比较3个应用较广的模拟物种地理分布模型:广义线性模型(GLM)、广义加法模型(GAM)与分类回归树(CART)对中国树种地理分布模拟的优劣,以提出更为合适的模拟物种地理分布模型,并用于预测气候变化对物种地理分布的影响。3个模型对中国15种树种地理分布的模拟研究表明:除对油松、辽东栎分布的模拟精度稍差外,对其余树种分布的模拟精度均较高,其中以GAM模型最好。结合地理信息系统(GIS),比较分析了这3个模型对青冈、木荷、红松和油松4种树种的地理分布模拟效果,结果亦表明:这3个模型均能很好模拟青冈和木荷的地理分布,而GLM模型对红松分布的模拟结果不太理想,3个模型对油松分布的模拟结果均不甚理想,其中以GLM模型最差。基于3个模型对未来气候变化下青冈与蒙古栎地理分布的预测表明:GLM模型与GAM模型对青冈分布的预测结果较为接近,青冈在未来气候变化情景下向西和向北扩展,而CART模型预测青冈在未来气候变化情景下除有向西、向北扩展趋势外,广东和广西南部的青冈分布区将消失;3个模型均预测蒙古栎在未来气候变化情景下向西扩展,扩展面积的大小为:模型的模拟面积>模型>模型。     

CLIMEX:预测物种分布区的软件

CLIMEX是通过物种已知地理分布区域的气候参数来预测物种潜在分布区的软件。 1 999年发布了最新版即CLIMEXforWindows 1 1。CLIMEX有 2个基本假设 :( 1 )物种在 1年内经历 2个时期 ,即适合种群增长时期和不适合以至于危及生存的时期 ;( 2 )气候是影响物种分布的主要因素 ,并利用增长指数、胁迫指数和限制条件 (滞育和有效积温 )描述物种对气候的不同反应 ,这 2组参数构成生态气候指数 ,作为全面描述物种在某地区和年份适合度的指标。模型预测结果以表、图和地图输出。CLIMEX可以用于检疫、生物防治、有害生物风险分析、害虫管理和流行病的预测等。目前已经用于几十种有害生物的适生性研究。该文通过拟和松墨天牛在中国的分布区为例说明CLIMEX的用法 ,并根据松墨天牛在亚洲东部的气候条件 ,预测其在全球的潜在适生区 ,为动植物检疫部门及时采取相应措施控制松材线虫的进一步扩散提供科学依据     

气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的青海云杉潜在分布格局模拟

青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)是我国青藏高原东北缘特有树种,在维系我国西北地区生态平衡、水土保持、水源涵养和生物多样性等方面发挥着重要作用。基于其分布范围内的69个地理分布样点,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型对现实气候条件下青海云杉的潜在分布及其分布的主导气候因子进行分析,同时结合3种大气环流模型模拟青海云杉在3种气候变化情景(温室气候排放量不同)下未来2050s和2080s潜在分布区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型对青海云杉潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,所有模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC测试值)均高于0.99;Jackknife检验和气候因子响应曲线表明年最低降雨量是限制青海云杉分布的主导因子;当前青海云杉的潜在分布区主要集中于青海东部、甘肃东南部、宁夏大部分地区、西藏东部、四川西部山区以及陕西、新疆和内蒙古部分地区。在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布总面积与当前相比变化不明显,但不同适生等级的潜在分布面积变化较大,其中,中度适生区和低度适生区受气候增温影响显著,中度增温下这些区域在2080s的面积明显增大,而高度适生区(核心分布)则在所有增温情景下均呈缩小趋势。同时,在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布区有向北移动趋势,但其心分布区域(高度适生区)仍然以青海东部、甘肃北部为主,无明显变迁趋势。从气候因素角度考虑,本研究表明未来气候变化情景下,青海云杉依然在西部高山地区,特别是作为我国重要生态屏障的祁连山、贺兰山等山区具有重要的经济价值并将持续其生态服务功能。     

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns,drivers, and consequences of phenology

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources—including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science—now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.     

Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change

Despite evidence that organismal distributions are shifting in response to recent climatic warming, we have little information on direct links between species' physiology and vulnerability to climate change. We demonstrate a positive relationship between upper thermal tolerance and its acclimatory ability in a well-defined clade of closely related European diving beetles. We predict that species with the lowest tolerance to high temperatures will be most at risk from the adverse effects of future warming, since they have both low absolute thermal tolerance and poor acclimatory ability. Upper thermal tolerance is also positively related to species' geographical range size, meaning that species most at risk are already the most geographically restricted ones, being endemic to Mediterranean mountain systems. Our findings on the relationship between tolerance and acclimatory ability contrast with results from marine animals, suggesting that generalizations regarding thermal tolerance and responses to future rapid climate change may be premature.     

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio‐climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs “hindcasting” of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species‐specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white‐beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time‐scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.     

基于植物功能性状的生态学研究进展:从个体水平到全球尺度

植物功能性状是指能够反映植物碳获取、水分传递、养分循环等的重要生命活动的属性,包括植物生理、形态和物候等方面的特征。通过植物功能性状探讨物种分布格局、生长策略和存活机制及其对全球变化的响应与适应,是近年来生态学研究的热点之一。然而,不同尺度下植物功能性状与环境因子的关系存在差异,并且性状之间的关系也不尽相同。从物种、种群、群落、植被区系到全球尺度,围绕植物功能性状之间的相互关系及其对气候环境变化响应的热点问题进行了综述,梳理了近年来植物功能性状研究领域的进展,并讨论了目前植物功能性状研究的局限性和该领域未来的发展趋势。     

On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution

Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.     

植物物候学研究进展

植物物候变化在研究陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应时被誉为"矿井中的金丝雀"，全球气候变化愈演愈烈，重新引起了人们对植物物候研究的广泛关注。随着观测技术的发展，在各种空间和生态尺度上收集到的物候观测数据迅速累积，尽管已经在多个尺度上（物种、群落和景观尺度）观察到物候变化，但物候变化的机理仍然没有得到很好的理解。回顾了国内外植物物候研究的发展历程；总结了物候数据收集技术进展和全球物候变化的主要趋势；归纳了植物物候变化的机理与驱动因素；探讨了物候模型研究及物候对气候变化响应研究的主要方向。随着物候观测技术在不同尺度上应用的增加，物候研究进入了一个新的阶段。未来物候研究需要制定跨区域标准化观测指南，融合所有相关学科，改进物候模型，拓展研究区域；同时融合有效的历史物候资料，采用新技术和长期收集的物候数据为大数据时代植物物候学研究提供基础。     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Global climate change and accuracy of prediction of species' geographical ranges: establishment success of introduced ladybirds (Coccinellidae, Chilocorus spp.) worldwide

AimPredictions of how the geographical ranges of species change implicitly assume that range can be determined without invoking climate change. The aim here was to determine how accurate predictions of range change might be before entertaining global climatic change. LocationWorldwide. MethodsAll the documented global biological control translocations of ladybirds (Coccinellidae: Chilocorus spp.) were analysed with the ecoclimatic program, CLIMEX. This program determines species distributions in relation to climate, and can be used to express the favourableness of different localities for a species. CLIMEX is also a useful exploratory tool for determining the likelihood of establishment of species introduced from one area to another. ResultsPredictive models were developed based on the likelihood of establishment of fifteen Chilocorus spp. relative to their physiological characteristics and climatic tolerances. This likelihood was compared with actual establishment with a resultant range of 0% accuracy to 100% accuracy. Only four (26.7%) species climatic tolerances could the predicted with 100% certainty. The general lack of accurate prediction was because climate is not always the overriding feature determining whether a species will establish or not. Other determinants, such as localized response to microclimate, phenology, host type and availability, presence of natural enemies and hibernation sites play a varying role over and above climate in determining whether a species will establish at a new locality. Main conclusionsThis study shows that even in the absence of climate change, range cannot always be determined, which means that most predictions of range change with climate change are likely to be wrong.