中国增汇型气候保护政策实施对经济的影响

系统地给出了中国实施增汇型CO2减排政策对宏观经济影响的模拟结果,所采用的模拟系统包括基于Pizer,Demeter,Zwaan工作发展的中国气候保护决策支持系统和中国经济可计算一般均衡(CGE)系统。研究结果表明,增汇型气候保护政策较其他单一的气候保护政策更有利于国家经济安全;虽然增汇型气候保护政策在短期内会对国家GDP产出造成影响,但从长远角度看,增汇型气候保护将带动经济的发展,是一项值得推广的减排政策。同时,发现中国实行每年增加4%的碳汇和实施4%能源替代以减少CO2排放控制率,辅助于0.2%的生产型CO2排放控制率,如果能够促进世界其它地区到2050年减排1990年的10%的CO,是一个合适的方案。     

CO2排放控制的动态宏观经济模拟分析

以 Nordhaus- Pizer模型和 L eimbach模型为基础 ,在新经济增长理论框架下 ,发展了一个气候保护分析的宏观经济动态模型 ,模拟分析了不同削减水平下我国温室气体排放的对我国 GDP增长和社会福利的影响 ,数值模拟发现 :如果不推动减排 ,我国经济增长到 2 0 2 5年左右将失去优势。如果中国适当参加减排 ,采用每年控制少排放 0 .2 %的水平 ,到 2 0 5 0年相对不控制将少排放 1 0 % ,对中国经济发展最为有利 ,对全球气候保护也是一个贡献     

国际参与下的全球气候保护策略可行性模拟

控制全球二氧化碳含量在 2050年前不超过500ml/m3和在2010年全球平均升温不超过2℃是当前国际气候保护的热点问题.建立了一个全球性的包含GDP溢出机制和技术进步作用的RICE类型模型,以分析全球合作减排的配额公平性和方案有效性.研究结果表明,为了将2050年全球二氧化碳浓度控制在500ml/m3,以"人均排放权均等"的原则进行国际碳排放权配额分配时,以1861年为历史排放起点会导致发达国家与发展中国家在可使用配额上产生极大悬殊,不易在国际谈判中被接受.Stern的减排方案能虽能较显著地将2100年升温幅度控制在2℃以内,但是,该方案的实施使发展中国家将损失相对较多的经济收益用于支付减排的成本.相比之下较优的国际减排方案为:至2050年,发达国家的排放水平比1990年降低80%,中国、俄罗斯和世界其他国家从2020年之后开始减排,至2050年,中国比2005年排放水平降低25%,俄罗斯比2005年排放水平降低30%,世界其他地区比2005年排放水平增加量不超出30%.     

气候变化对黄淮海平原冬小麦产量和耗水的影响及品种适应性评估

基于IPCC5 3种代表性温室气体浓度排放路径(RCP)的情景集成数据,采用VIP生态水文模型,模拟分析了黄淮海平原未来冬小麦产量、蒸散量的气候变化响应.模拟结果表明:未考虑CO2肥效时,3种典型排放路径下,冬小麦生育期都将因气温上升而缩短,其产量和蒸散量将呈下降趋势.CO2浓度增加对作物生长的有利影响强于气候变化带来的不利影响,是未来情景下冬小麦产量增加的主要原因.以RCP4.5为例,2050s黄淮海地区冬小麦平均产量将增加14.8%(无CO2肥效时产量下降2.5%),蒸散量降低2.1%.采用积温需求更高的品种将有利于冬小麦利用CO2肥效提高其产量,但耗水量将有所增加.因此,培育适应气候变化的作物品种、发展节水农业和管理技术是应对气候变化的关键.     

技术进步作用下中国CO2减排的可能性

建立了包含技术进步作用的CO2减排经济影响的宏观经济模型,基于这个模型,开展了中国减排CO2经济影响的政策模拟,研究发现,中国每年降低排放0．2％的排放量（少增0．2％）,到2050年GDP会比不控制下降5．12％。但是最高还能保持GDP年增长率为7．2％左右,如果中国承担年少排0．5％的减排任务,从2000年到2050年相当于50a少排放12．4％,GDP的年增长率的平均值为6％左右。如果中国加大教育科研投资0．5％GDP,则不仅减排的影响可以克服。而且到2050年GDP提高25％左右。     

两种温室气体排放方案下我国水稻产量变化模拟

利用最新的温室气体和SO2排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）排放情景特别报告（SRES）的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模型CERES-Rice相嵌套,在50 km×50 km网格尺度下,模拟了未来2080年我国水稻产量的变化.结果表明,两种温室气体排放方案下,我国水稻的年平均单产水平各地有增有减,增产地区主要集中在长江及长江流域以南地区,其中四川和湖北交界的山区增产幅度最大,减产地区主要集中在华北平原和东北平原;由于CO₂的肥效作用,A2温室气体排放方案对我国水稻单产的正面影响大于B2方案,A2排放方案下,我国水稻总产呈现一定程度的上升趋势,B2排放方案下,水稻总产表现为少量下降.     

两种温室气体排放方案下我国水稻产量变化模拟

利用最新的温室气体和SO₂排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模型CERES-Rcie相嵌套,在50 km×50 km网格尺度下,模拟了未来2080年我国水稻产量的变化.结果表明,两种温室气体排放方案下,我国水稻的年平均单产水平各地有增有减,增产地区主要集中在长江及长江流域以南地区,其中四川和湖北交界的山区增产幅度最大,减产地区主要集中在华北平原和东北平原;由于CO₂的肥效作用,A2温室气体排放方案对我国水稻单产的正面影响大于B2方案,A2排放方案下,我国水稻总产呈现一定程度的上升趋势,B2排放方案下,水稻总产表现为少量下降.     

基于长期能源替代规划模型的江苏省能源CO2排放达峰时间及峰值水平

为了应对全球气候变暖,中国政府提出到2030年CO₂排放达到峰值(或峰值平台)的减排目标.为了探究中国能否实现该减排目标,本研究以江苏省为例,基于长期能源规划替代模型(LEAP),耦合对数平均迪氏分解模型,运用情景分析法科学设定快速、中速、慢速达峰3种发展情景,预测CO₂排放达峰时间及峰值水平.结果表明: 2000—2015年间,经济规模效应是CO₂排放总量增长的主要驱动因素,其贡献度高达147.4%;技术进步效应是最重要的缓解因素,贡献度为-60.4%,一次能源结构效应、产业结构效应、人均收入效应、人口规模效应的贡献度分别为-5.3%、9.7%、11.0%、0.6%.在快速、中速达峰情景下,江苏省分别在2025和2029年达到CO₂排放峰值,峰值分别为7.01、7.95亿t,慢速达峰情景下未能实现2030年的CO₂排放达峰目标.综合研究分析,江苏省有着较大的减排潜力,经过相应的努力能够实现CO₂减排目标.为实现2030年的CO₂减排目标可采取以下措施:主动适应经济新常态,稳定发展增速;积极发展第三产业,平衡经济结构;持续推进节能减排技术,降低能源消费强度;大力发展天然气及核电等清洁能源,优化一次能源消费结构.     

基于MRICES模型的气候融资模拟分析

气候融资是促进发展中国家获得减排资金的重要途径之一.基于发达国家成立专项资金用于国际气候融资且发展中国家将其所获得的转移资金完全用于碳减排的经济机制下,在MRICES(Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers,GDP溢出作用下的多区域气候经济综合模型)模型的基础上,扩展了模拟国际气候融资的模块.实验分析了气候融资在全球减排中的气候保护效益和对全球各国产生的经济效益.研究发现,持续的气候融资能有效抑制全球升温,但《坎昆协议》中提出的资金额度仅能使2100年全球升温比无资金转移时降低0.01℃,全球气候保护需要制定更长期的转移计划;气候融资能使发展中国家的经济受益,而发达国家虽然在转移初期会遭受轻微的GDP损失,但从长期看资金转移将促进发达国家的经济增长,最终出现资金转移输出方和输入方双赢的局面;同时,国际气候资金适量转移至中国有助于实现资金的优化高效使用,中国在全球减排中的贡献不容小觑.气候融资是一项气候保护有效、经济效益显著的减排机制.     

黄淮海平原河北省范围内农田土壤二氧化碳和氧化亚氮排放量的估算

以黄淮海平原河北省范围内的农田土壤为研究对象,通过与田间实际观测数据进行比较发现,DNDC模型能够较好地反映农田土壤温室气体CO2和N2O的排放通量,可以用来模拟估算农田土壤CO2和N2O的排放通量.根据模型估算,2003年河北省111个县市农业土壤CO2排放量约3.758×106tC,各县市总的N2O排放量40.345×106kgN.全省释放的CO2和N2O中有40%左右来自冬小麦/夏玉米地.因此,减少该地区农业土壤CO2和N2O排放量的措施,应集中用于排放量高的县市和这些地区的冬小麦/夏玉米地,进行大范围的普遍减排可能收效甚微,并且没有必要.     

Inhibition of endogenous CO by ZnPP protects against stress-induced gastric lesion in adult male albino rats

Carbon monoxide (CO) has been found to be produced in every living cell in a biochemical reaction catalyzed by heme-oxygenase (HO) enzyme which degrades heme into biliverdin, CO, and iron. Endogenous CO is not a waste product, but acts as a chemical messenger mediating and modulating many intracellular biochemical reactions that regulate physiological functions. This study was designed to investigate the effect of inhibition of endogenous CO production by zinc protoporphyrin (ZnPP), an HO inhibitor, on the gastric secretion and ulceration induced by cold-restraint stress (CRS) in adult male albino rats. Rats were pylorically ligated and divided randomly into the following groups (six rats each): control, ZnPP treated (50 μmol/kg/day, s.c. for 10 days), CRS, and stressed ZnPP treated groups. Blood samples were collected from the retro-orbital sinus of anesthetized rats for determination of CO concentration. We found that ZnPP pretreatment significantly decreased HO-1 level, CO level, and volume of gastric juice as compared to the control non-stressed rats. In the present study, ZnPP pretreatment proved to be protective against development of ulcerative lesions in CRS model as evidenced by reduction of the ulcer index, and this could be mediated through reduction of free and total acidity of gastric secretion and decreased lipid peroxidation but with significantly decreased gastric protective nitric oxide and prostaglandin E(2) levels. In conclusion and according to our results, the protective effect of ZnPP on CRS-induced gastric ulcers despite of inhibition of endogenous CO could be attributed to the presence of zinc which is known to have a protective anti-ulcer effect.     

Energetics of CO formation and CO oxidation in cell suspensions of Acetobacterium woodii

Cell suspensions of Acetobacterium woodii produced CO from H₂ and CO₂. Depending on the conditions, more than 1,000 ppm CO were measured in the gas phase. This concentration was more than 10-fold higher than the thermodynamic equilibrium concentration that can be calculated to be 83.5 ppm for the experimental conditions used. This finding is taken as evidence that, besides the activation of formate, also CO production from CO₂ is an energy-dependent step in the reduction of CO₂ to acetate. Studies on the influence of ionophores and dicyclohexylcarbodiimide (DCCD) as well as that of CO and formaldehyde on acetate synthesis were undertaken in order to determine whether ATP or is the driving for CO₂ reduction to CO.Cells of A. woodii also catalyzed the conversion of CO (5% in the gas phase) to CO₂ and H₂. This process was coupled to the generation of metabolic energy, which could be used by the cells to drive the uptake of histidine into the cells; histidine uptake was almost completely inhibited by the ionophores valinomycin plus nigericin. The data were taken to indicate that in this acetogen the energy derived from CO oxidation can be converted to metabolic energy.Abbreviations DCCD dicyclohexylcarbodiimide - THF tetrahydrofolate - TCS tetrachlorosalicylanilide - TPP⁺ tetraphenylphosphonium ion - Val valinomycin; Nig, nigericin - DTT dithiothreitol - DTE dithioerythritol - DTE dithioerythritol - membrane potential - electrochemical proton potential - ppm parts per million     

Variation in energy metabolism and water flux of free-ranging male lace monitors,Varanus varius (Squamata: Varanidae)

The energy and water used by Varanus varius correlated with changes in weather, activity, and possibly the availability of prey. In summer, CO(2) production and water influx rates were high (0.147 mL CO(2) g(-1) h(-1) and 23.6 mL H(2)O kg(-1) d(-1)) but substantially lower during autumn (0.053 mL CO(2) g(-1) h(-1) and 9.1 mL H(2)O kg(-1) d( -1)) and winter (0.016 mL CO(2) g(-1) h(-1) and 2.4 mL H(2)O kg(-1) d(-1)), increasing again in spring (0.052 mL CO(2) g(-1) h(-1) and 7.9 mL H(2)O kg(-1) d(-1)). The summer-winter difference represented more than a ninefold reduction in energy expenditure and water flux. However, individual V. varius could manipulate their energy and water requirements by up to sixfold during the summer period by regulating activity. Although we found no adaptive benefits of increased or decreased level of activity, we did find that larger animals moved more frequently and over greater distances than smaller animals. We hypothesise that V. varius regulates its activity on the basis of the trade-off between energy expenditure through activity and energy acquisition through foraging.     

Energetics and Kinetics of the Prebiotic Synthesis of Simple Organic Acids and Amino Acids with the FES-H2S/FES2 Redox Couple as Reductant

The thermodynamics of the FeS-H2S/FeS2 redox couple and a select number of reactions critical to the synthesis of simple carboxylic acids and amino acids have been evaluated as a function of temperature. This thermodynamic evaluation shows that the reducing power of the FeS-H2S/FeS2 redox couple decreases drastically with temperature. By contrast the equilibria describing the reduction of CO2 and the formation of simple carboxylic acids and amino acids require an increasingly higher reducing power with temperature. Given these two opposite trends, the thermodynamic driving force for CO2 reduction and amino acid formation with the FeS-H2S/FeS2 redox couple as reductant diminishes with increasing temperature. An evaluation of the mechanism of CO2 reduction by the FeS-H2S/FeS2 couple suggests that the electron transfer from pyrrhotite to CO2 is hindered by a high activation energy, even though the overall reaction is thermodynamically favorable. By comparison the electron transfer from pyrrhotite to either CS2, CO, or HCOOH are far more facile. This theoretical analysis explains the results of experimental work by Keefe et al. (1995), Heinen and Lauwers (1996) and Huber and Wächtershäuser (1997). The implication is that a reaction sequence involving the reduction of CO2 with the FeS-H2S/FeS2 couple as reductant is unlikely to initiate a proposed prebiotic carbon fixation cycle (Wächtershäuser, 1988b; 1990b, 1990a, 1992, 1993).     

Theoretical basis of single breath gas absorption tests

Absorption of gas from alveoli is examined in a simplified model of the respiratory system during a stylized single breath consisting of constant inspiratory flow, constant expiratory flow, and breathholding. The equations describing gas behavior are general since they are based upon conservation of mass. The equations simplify considerably when gases that are not soluble in pulmonary tissue and/or blood are utilized. In a three-compartment model, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D _CO ) will be underestimated except when both uneven distribution of lung volume andD _CO are present; under most circumstances, the standard clinical 10-s method [9] is at least as accurate as any other. When pulmonary capillary blood flow is calculated by the one point method [2] in a one-compartment lung, it is underestimated; in the three-compartment model, it is underestimated except when both uneven distribution of . and lung volume are present. The multiple single breath method [2] accurately measuresD _CO and . Measurement of pulmonary tissue volume is improved by correcting the value of the intercept of acetylene absorption to the time when carbon monoxide apparently began rather than utilizing the beginning of inspiration.Nomenclature D _CO diffusing capacity of the lung for CO (ml CO, STPD/min/mm Hg) - pulmonary capillary blood flow rate (L/min) - V _t pulmonary tissue volume (L) - V _A alveolar compartment volume (L) - V _Ao alveolar compartment volume at conclusion of inspiratory flow (L) - inspiratory flow rate (L/sec) - expiratory flow rate (L/sec) - Bunsen coefficient of pulmonary tissue for test gas (ml test gas/ml tissue/atm) - Bunsen coefficient of pulmonary tissue for test gas (ml test gas/ml blood/atm) - F _A fractional pressure of test gas in the alveolar compartment (atm)     

Weber's theory of the kernleiter

The potential distribution about a kernleiter is determined according to Weber's method. It is shown that the distribution reduces to the solution of a telegrapher's equation when the volume of the external medium is small. The velocity of propagation as a function of the external volume is determined approximately. This involves the solution of the equation

$$\frac{{\left[ {Y_0 (k\xi )} \right]^\prime }}{{\left[ {J_0 (k\xi )} \right]^\prime }} = \frac{{\left[ {\xi ^{ - a} Y_0 (\xi )} \right]^\prime }}{{\left[ {\xi ^{ - a} J_0 (\xi )} \right]^\prime }}$$     

Influence of anions on metal adsorption by Rhizopus arrhizus biomass

The presence of anions in solution was found to inhibit the uptake of La(3+), Cd(2+), Pb(2+), UO(2+) (2), and Ag(+) by Rhizopus arrhizus biomass. The effects ranged from total inhibition of Cd(2+) and Pb(2+) uptake at equimolar concentrations of EDTA to no change in uptake of La(3+) or UO(2+) (2) at 12-fold molar excesses of Cl(-) or CO(2-) (3). No anion was found to enhance metal uptake levels, and the degree of inhibition generally followed the series: \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$${\rm EDTA } \ge \ge {\rm SO}_{;{;{;{\rm 4} } } };{{\rm 2} - } \ge {\rm Cl}; - \ge {\rm PO}_{;{;{;{\rm 4} } } };{{\rm 3} - } \ge {\rm glutamate} \ge {\rm CO}_{;{;{\rm 3} } };{{\rm 2} - } $$\end{document} The chemical equilibrium model REDEQL2 was adapted to treat metal uptake by R. arrhizus biomass and used to predict the effects of anions in solution. Comparisons with the experimental results are made and discussed in light of the assumptions underlying the model.     

Pest problems: The view of the New Zealand conservation authority

Abstract

The New Zealand Conservation Authority was established 3 years ago by the Conservation Law Reform Act 1990. Its functions include the provision of advice on conservation issues of national importance to Government and to the Department of Conservation (DoC). It has a statutory role in the approval of management plans for national parks and other important areas of the conservation estate. It advises the Minister and the Director-General of Conservation annually on priorities for the expenditure of money.     

Development and Verification of a Mouse Model for Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass Surgery with a Small Gastric Pouch

Existing mouse models of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery are not comparable to human RYGB in gastric pouch volume for a large or absent gastric volume. The aim of this study was to develop and characterize a mouse RYGB model that closely replicates gastric pouch size of human RYGB surgery of about 5% of total gastric volume. We established this model in diet-induced obese (DIO) mice of C57BL/6J. This surgery resulted in a sustained 30% weight loss, entirely accounted for by decreased fat mass but not lean mass, compared to sham-operated mice on the high fat diet. Compared to sham-operated mice, energy expenditure corrected for total body weight was significantly increased by about 25%, and substrate utilization was shifted toward higher carbohydrate utilization at 8 weeks after RYGB when body weight had stabilized at the lower level. The energy expenditure persisted and carbohydrate utilization was even more pronounced when the mice were fed chow diet. Although significantly increased during daytime, overall locomotor activity was not significantly different. In response to cold exposure, RYGB mice exhibited an improved capacity to maintain the body temperature. In insulin tolerance test, exogenous insulin-induced suppression of plasma glucose levels was significantly greater in RYGB mice at 4 weeks after surgery. Paradoxically, food intake measured at 5 weeks after surgery was significantly increased, possibly in compensation for increased fecal energy loss and energy expenditure. In conclusion, this new model is a viable alternative to existing murine RYGB models and the model matches human RYGB surgery in anatomy. This model will be useful for studying molecular mechanisms involved in the beneficial effects of RYGB on body weight and glucose homeostasis.     

Integration of Life Cycle assessment and population balance model for assessing environmental impacts of product population in a social scale case studies for the global warming potential of air conditioners in Japan

Scope  In this study, a dynamic model was built in which LCA and PBM were integrated to quantitatively assess the total environmental impacts induced by the product population in a society over time. Specifically, a determination was carried out concerning how Japan’s air conditioner population is used (lifetime distribution, number of units, etc.) and an assessment was made concerning the Global Warming Potential (GWP) associated with the air conditioner population. Methods  The proposed dynamic model was applied to air conditioners for analyzing the total GWP caused by the air conditioner population in Japan from 1990 to 2010. To create a trend forecast model for future environmental load, scenarios for air conditioner production up to 2010 were formulated and the total GWP from the air conditioner population was predicted. Conducted also were sensitivity analyses whose parameters were air conditioner performance, lifetime and the rate of refrigerant recovery when retired units are processed. Results and Discussion  Applying the PBM to the air conditioner population in 2000, it was found that 81.5 million units consumed 5.94 x 10^p10 kWh in that year, which was a 6.1 % increase in the total annual power consumption in 1990. In both a stationary scenario and a steady growth (1.5% annual increase), it was found that the total GWP would be 27.7% higher than in 1990 under the stationary scenario and 37.8% higher under the steady growth scenario. The improvements in air conditioner performance will have a small effect on reducing the total GWP from that population. Furthermore, in connection with the average lifetime, it was found that the GWP, due to refrigerant releases when units are disposed of, would be relatively large in 2000 and the following years. Conclusions  Thus, shorter product lifetimes will spur a replacement of air conditioners with new units, a situation that will only lead to the reduction of GWP if the recovery rate of refrigerant is to be achieved to more than 50% under the stationary scenario. Recommendations and Outlook  To meet COP3 targets for Japan in 2010 (i.e. to reach the same level as in 1990 for household appliances), our study shows that it will be vital to raise the refrigerant recovery rate. If the number of air conditioners in use remains unchanged, recovery would have to be 45.7%, but under the steady growth scenario it would have to be at least 60.4%. Therefore, it will be difficult to meet COP3 targets unless the refrigerant recovery rate is strongly increased. This method is applicable to assess not only the GWP of air conditioners, but also other environmental impacts caused by a variety of product populations, which will be quite effective for setting targets of products’ performance, policymaking, etc.