An observational and brood-exchange sudy of paternal provisioning in the red-winged blackbird, Agelaius phoeniceus

Male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) provisioned50%(118/235) of available broods over an 8-year period. In mostcases, each male provisioned only the oldest brood on his territory,but in 21 cases, the male fed a younger brood after first feedingan older one. In 10 of these cases the switch to the youngerbrood followed predation of the older brood, but in the remaining11 cases the cause of the switch was unknown. To determine whethermale red-winged blackbirds adjust their provisioning when thedemands of their broods change, we exchanged broods betweenpairs of nests on 10 territories. Before each exchange, eachmale had been feeding nestlings of only one of the two broods.In response to the exchanges, male (and female) red-winged blackbirdsimmediately adjusted their rates of provisioning to the increasedor decreased demands of the broods. In addition, most malesswitched their provisioning within a day after the exchangeso that they fed the same broods as before the exchanges. Ourresults show that male red-winged blackbirds adjust their provisioningwhen the demands of their broods change and suggest that maleshave enough information about other nesting attempts on theirterritories to shift to a more profitable brood when the expectedbenefits of provisioning change. Male red-winged blackbirdsdo not appear to follow an investment strategy based on priorinvestments (i.e., they do not commit the "Concorde fallacy").     

Do Hosts Discriminate between Sexually Dichromatic Male and Female Brown‐headed Cowbirds?

Female brood parasites are recognized as threats to reproductive success by many host species. Male brood parasites may accompany females while they search for nests to parasitize and males depredate nests throughout the nesting cycle. Hence, selection may also favour recognition of males. We examined whether two common host species perceive male brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) as brood parasites, as nest predators, or neither. We quantified visits of male cowbirds to nests of yellow warblers ( Dendroica petechia ) and red-winged blackbirds ( Ageliaus phoeniceus ) to assess the frequency with which these host species interact with male cowbirds. Males were observed near nests during hosts' laying and incubating stages, although less frequently than female cowbirds. No visits by cowbirds occurred while parents cared for nestlings. We then presented models of male and female cowbirds plus a non-threatening control to yellow warblers and red-winged blackbirds during laying and nestling periods. If hosts perceive males and females similarly, they should respond more intensely to the cowbird models during the laying period, when nests are most likely to be parasitized. Both species responded similarly to male and female cowbird models during laying, which suggests that hosts view cowbirds of both sexes as threats. The responses of yellow warblers with nestlings to male cowbirds were strongly influenced by the order of model presentation. Warblers first presented with the male cowbird gave much reduced anti-parasite responses than those that first interacted with the female then the male cowbird. These results suggest that yellow warblers recognized male vs. female cowbirds, but that discrimination was not expressed during laying. By contrast, red-winged blackbirds did not discriminate between male and female cowbirds at either nesting stage.     

Effect of global warming on the timing of migration and breeding of passerine birds in the 20th century

Long-term monitoring of the dates of arrival, breeding, and autumn migration in 25 passerine bird species on the Kurshskaya (Courland) Spit, the Baltic Sea, has shown that spring migration and nesting in most species wintering in Europe or Africa have shifted to earlier dates in the past two decades, whereas the dates of autumn migration in most species studied have not changed significantly. In 16 bird species, a significant negative correlation of the timing of arrival and breeding with the average spring air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in February and March was revealed. In years with early and warm springs, birds arrived at the spit and nested considerably earlier than in years with cold springs. The dates of autumn migration in most species studied largely depended on the timing of nesting but not on weather conditions in autumn. The data obtained indicate that the main factor responsible for long-term changes in the timing of arrival, nesting, and autumn migrations of passerine birds in the Baltic Region is climate fluctuations that led to considerable changes in thermal conditions in the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century. The hypothesis is proposed that recent climate warming has caused changes in the timing of not only the arrival of birds in Europe but also of their spring migrations from Africa. Further changes in the dates of passerine bird arrival and breeding in the Palearctic in subsequent years will largely depend on the dynamics of winter and spring air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the timing of autumn migrations will be determined mainly by the dates of their arrival and nesting.     

Weather Influences Multiple Components of Greater Prairie-Chicken Reproduction

The influence of weather on wildlife populations has been documented for many species; however, much of the current literature has focused on the effects of weather within a season and consists of short-term studies. The use of long-term datasets that cover a variety of environmental conditions will be essential for assessing possible carry-over effects of weather experienced in one season on behavior and fitness in subsequent seasons. In this study, we evaluated the effects of weather variables measured over multiple temporal scales on the reproductive performance and behavior of greater prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) in Osage County, Oklahoma, USA, from 2011–2019. Considering weather over a range of temporal extents allowed us to determine the relative importance of short-term weather events, such as daily temperature and precipitation, versus more chronic shifts in weather such as persistent drought on the reproductive performance of greater prairie-chickens. We used an information-theoretic model building approach to develop models describing the effects of daily weather variables and drought conditions on daily nest survival, nest incubation start dates, and clutch size. Daily nest survival was primarily influenced by conditions experienced during incubation with daily nest success declining in years with wetter than average springs and during extreme precipitation events. Daily nest survival also declined under higher maximum daily temperatures, especially in years with below-average rainfall. Greater prairie-chickens began nesting earlier and had smaller clutch sizes for initial nests and renests in years with warmer temperatures prior to the nesting season. Additionally, incubation of nests started later in drought years, indicating carry-over effects in greater prairie-chicken reproductive behaviors. Our work shows that if the weather in the Great Plains becomes more variable, with increasing frequency of drought and extreme precipitation events, wildlife species that inhabit these grassland landscapes will likely experience changes in reproduction, potentially influencing future populations. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

NATURAL SELECTION AND SEXUAL SIZE DIMORPHISM IN RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS

Patterns of overwinter mortality in the sexually dimorphic red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) were examined to test the predictions of the sexual-selection hypothesis that male size is limited by directional selection favoring small males and that female size is maintained by stabilizing selection wherein extreme phenotypes experience higher mortality. Museum specimens collected from Ontario over a 95-yr period were used to compare the sizes of males and females collected in fall and spring. In a separate field study, body sizes of returning and nonreturning male and female red-winged blackbirds were compared over a 6-yr period. Overall, there was no evidence of higher overwinter mortality among larger males. Among adult (ASY) males, large individuals appeared to have higher survival than small individuals, although among subadult (SY) males, large size may have been disadvantageous. Weak evidence of stabilizing selection on female body size was found. Among adults, sexual size dimorphism seemed more pronounced after winter than before winter. Our results do not support the hypothesis that body size in male red-winged blackbirds is limited by selective mortality outside the breeding season. It is possible that size selection occurs earlier in life, when males are still in the nest. Our results suggest that caution should be exercised when interpreting interspecific evidence showing higher adult male than female mortality in sexually dimorphic species. Such patterns could arise as a cost to males of sexual selection and yet provide no insight into how natural selection opposes sexual selection for increased male size.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Reproductive ecology of blackbirds ( Turdus merula maximus) in a high-altitude location, Tibet

Reproductive data of high-altitude blackbirds (Turdus merula maximus) were collected at an alpine environment covered with scrub vegetation in Lhasa mountains, Tibet. The blackbird nests were found from 3,800 to 4,500 m at a breeding density of 0.07 pairs/ha. Egg-laying occurred from early May to late July, with a peak (73.0% of all nesting attempts) between mid-May and mid-June. Most (79.5%) of the nests were sited in six different plant species with Cotoneaster microphyllus being most preferred. A few (20.5%) nests were against rocky walls. Bushes used for nest sites were significantly higher. Compared with lowland blackbirds, montane blackbirds experienced a shorter breeding season (2.5 months), laid smaller clutches (2–4 eggs, averaging 2.86), but larger eggs (mean volume index 16,348), produced only one brood per year, had a slightly shorter incubation period (12–13 days), but a longer nestling period (16–18 days), and enjoyed a higher breeding success (59.0%). In the alpine environment where climate is harsh and food supply poor, the strategy of increased egg size with decreased clutch size suggests that the high-altitude blackbirds improve their breeding success by investing more reproductive energy in fewer offspring in response to the constraints of time and resources. However, the environmental constraints on reproduction result in a low annual reproductive output.This revised version was published online in December 2004. The german abstract has been included.     

Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones

Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, “tropical cyclone” refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process.     

Egg coloration and selection for crypsis in open-nesting blackbirds

High variation in egg coloration among birds has traditionally been explained as adaptation for camouflage. We tested this hypothesis by conducting reciprocal clutch exchanges (n=301) among Brewer's blackbirds Euphagous cyanocephalus , red-winged blackbirds Agelaius phoeniceus , and yellow-headed blackbirds Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus . We predicted that clutches placed against their natural nest backgrounds would have higher survival rates than heterospecific clutches. Intraspecific clutch exchanges were used as a control. Clutch survival was monitored for a 9-d period at all nests, during which time incubation rhythm and nest defense were quantified. Intraspecific clutch exchanges did not influence incubation or nest defense. For two of the species, intraspecific clutch exchanges did not influence clutch survival; in red-winged blackbirds, however, intraspecifically exchanged clutches had somewhat depressed survival curves relative to control clutches (P=0.08). The effect of interspecific clutch exchanges differed by host species. In Brewer's nests, eggs of the yellow-headed blackbird had lower survival than Brewer's eggs (P=0.02), but survival of red-winged blackbird eggs did not differ from Brewer's eggs (P=0.50). In nests of red-winged blackbirds, all three clutch types had approximately equal survival. In yellow-headed blackbird nests, eggs of the red-winged blackbird had lower survival than yellow-headed blackbird eggs (P=0.06), and survival of Brewer's eggs did not differ from yellow-headed blackbird eggs (P=0.31). These findings support a role for egg coloration as camouflage in two of the three species studied.     

Ungulate Reproductive Parameters Track Satellite Observations of Plant Phenology across Latitude and Climatological Regimes

The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004–2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season (“Start” and “Peak”, respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production, across latitude and changing climatological regimes. Practically, this demonstrates the potential for broad-scale modeling of couplings between climate, plant phenology, and animal populations using space-borne observations.     

Egg crypsis and clutch survival in three species of blackbirds (Icteridae)

For most open-nesting passerine birds, the primary function of egg pigmentation is crypsis. Interspecific variation for egg coloration is quite high, even among species that nest in the same locale. This variation might be maintained by selection to blend into species-specific nest cups, which vary in pattern because they are constructed from different materials. To test this hypothesis we photographed 30 clutches of Brewer's blackbirds ( Euphagus cyanocephalus ), 26 clutches of red-winged blackbirds ( Agelaius phoeniceus ), and 24 clutches of yellow-headed blackbirds ( Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus ), and quantified crypsis in terms of pattern (PD crypsis), brightness (MB crypsis) and brightness disparity (BD crypsis). The species were equally cryptic in terms of pattern crypsis, but differed significantly ( P < 0.01) in MB and BD crypsis. Intraspecific variation in pattern crypsis was surprisingly high. Mean clutch pattern disparity was highly correlated with mean background pattern disparity ( r = 0.999); this suggests selection for disparity matching, rather than for crypsis. We also monitored 25 clutches (7 Brewer's, 9 red-winged, and 9 yellow-headed blackbirds) for a 9-day period to determine if survival was related to crypsis. For Brewer's and yellow-headed blackbirds, successful nests were no more cryptic than failed nests. For red-winged blackbirds, there was a tendency ( P = 0.1) for less cryptic clutches to have higher survival; in addition, successful red-winged blackbird clutches had significantly ( P < 0.05) higher egg pattern disparity and background pattern disparity. Red-winged blackbird clutches are not concealed by overhanging vegetation, and high pattern disparity may enable them to blend into a large-scale heterogeneous background.     

Shorter migration distances associated with higher winter temperatures suggest a mechanism for advancing nesting phenology of American kestrels Falco sparverius

Global climate change has affected avian migration patterns and nesting phenology. Changes in one phase of a bird's cycle will most likely affect other stages, but few studies focus simultaneously on multiple life‐history events. We used western North American ringing records and Christmas Bird Counts to examine whether changes in migration patterns were concordant with advancing American kestrel Falco sparverius nesting phenology. Consistent with previous findings, male kestrels migrated shorter distances than female kestrels, and kestrels nesting in southern latitudes migrated shorter distances than kestrels nesting in more northern areas. In addition, kestrel migration distance decreased significantly from 1960 to 2009 and was negatively associated with winter minimum temperatures. Christmas Birds Counts from the same time period showed increasing indices of overwintering kestrel abundance in northern states (Washington, Idaho, and Utah), where winter minimum temperatures have increased significantly, and concomitant decreases in southern states (California and Arizona). Finally, changes in nesting phenology of kestrels in southwestern Idaho were best explained by warmer winters, not springs. Warmer winters may decrease energetic demands on migrants by allowing for shorter migration distances, decreasing thermoregulatory costs, or both. Decreased energy demands during winter may allow birds to gain resources necessary for reproduction earlier in the nesting season. Higher winter temperatures that decrease (former) constraints on early nesting may be a particularly important mechanism leading to advancing nesting phenology for species with strong seasonal declines in fecundity or intense early season competition for high‐quality nesting areas.     

Cooperative nest defence in red-winged blackbirds: reciprocal altruism,kinship or by-product mutualism?

Male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) often cooperate with their neighbours in defending nests against predators. Some studies have suggested that this is an example of by-product mutualism, whereas others have suggested the possibility of reciprocal altruism. No study has addressed the possibility of kin-selected cooperation in nest defence in this species. Reciprocal altruism, kin selection and by-product mutualism are not mutually exclusive alternatives, but few studies of territorial neighbours have tested for multiple mechanisms simultaneously. We test for these three possibilities in a population of red-winged blackbirds. We used simulated defections to test for reciprocal altruism. We used analysis of microsatellite loci to test for kin selection between adult male neighbours. We also used microsatellite loci to test for by-product mutualism resulting from nest defence of offspring sired on neighbouring territories. We found that male red-winged blackbirds cooperate in nest defence primarily as a form of reciprocal altruism. Experimental males reduced their level of nest defence relative to controls following simulated defection by a neighbour. In contrast to some earlier studies, we found no evidence for by-product mutualism: males did not defend nests where they had sired extra-pair offspring. We also found no evidence for kin selection: males were no more cooperative with more closely related neighbours. Considered alongside the results from other studies, our study suggests that mechanisms stabilizing cooperation in red-winged blackbirds may vary among populations.     

Experimental confirmation of the polygyny threshold model for red-winged blackbirds

The polygyny threshold model assumes that polygynous mating is costly to females and proposes that females pay the cost of polygyny only when compensated by obtaining a superior territory or male. We present, to the authors' knowledge, the first experimental field test to demonstrate that females trade mating status against territory quality as proposed by this hypothesis. Previous work has shown that female red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) in Ontario prefer settling with unmated males and that this preference is adaptive because polygynous mating status lowers female reproductive success. Other evidence suggests that nesting over water increases the reproductive success of female red-winged blackbirds. Here we describe an experiment in which females were given choices between two adjacent territories, one owned by an unmated male without any over-water nesting sites and the other by an already-mated male with over-water sites. Females overwhelmingly preferred the already-mated males, demonstrating that superior territory quality can reverse preferences based on mating status and supporting the polygyny threshold model as the explanation for polygyny in this population.     

Resource availability, breeding site selection, and reproductive success of red-winged blackbirds

Red-winged blackbirds are polygynous and show strong breeding site preferences, but it is unclear which environmental factors regulate their reproductive success and are ultimately responsible for shaping their patterns of habitat selection and their mating system. We evaluated the effect of variation in insect emergence rates on the reproductive success of male and female redwings nesting on replicate ponds. The number of male and female redwings that settled on a pond varied two- to three-fold among ponds, but was not related to insect emergence rates. Insect emergence rates had a positive effect on the number of nestlings successfully fledged by females, the number of nestlings fledged from male territories, and on the mass of nestlings at fledging. Typha stem density also varied widely among ponds, and was positively related to male and female settling density and mass of nestlings at fledging, but not to the number of nestlings fledged by females or males. We conclude that alternative breeding sites differ in their ability to support redwing reproduction, and that the availability of emerging odonates is an important environmental factor influencing the reproductive success of both male and female red-winged blackbirds. Received: 31 March 1997 / Accepted: 3 July 1997     

Long-term decline in a red-winged blackbird population: ecological causes and sexual selection consequences

Habitat loss and large-scale climate phenomena are widely implicated as causing decline in animal populations. I examined how both factors contributed to a precipitous decline in an Ontario red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) population using 16 years of data collected between 1974 and 1995. The decline was manifested as an almost 50% reduction in mean harem size, which reduced the opportunity for sexual selection threefold. Regional hay production, which should affect recruitment into the study population, also declined substantially. Correlation between blackbirds and hay may be coincidental, however, because annual changes in harem size were not associated with annual changes in hay production. This study coincided with an unprecedented positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Changes in harem size were correlated with winter NAO index values, suggesting that winter mortality contributed to the population decline. Positive correlation between harem size change and male return rates also supported the winter mortality hypothesis. Continued declines will cause this blackbird population to change from socially polygynous to socially monogamous. Study of red-winged blackbird winter ecology is needed to identify the proximate causes of mortality, whereas breeding studies can explore the consequences of relaxed sexual selection.     

Do female green turtles (Chelonia mydas) exhibit reproductive seasonality in a year-round nesting rookery?

In circumglobal populations of sea turtles, little nesting activity occurs during cold seasons when the sand temperature on a nesting beach is inappropriate for successful egg incubation. However, it is not known whether reproductive seasonality also occurs in year-round nesting rookeries where the sand temperature may be suitable throughout the year. Therefore, we examined the hypothesis that female turtles exhibit reproductive seasonality even in a year-round nesting population. To determine whether the time of nesting of individuals fluctuates between successive nesting seasons, a year-round nesting rookery of green turtles Chelonia mydas at Huyong Island, Thailand, was patrolled on foot every night for 3190 consecutive days, and nesting females were identified using microchips and metal tags. The date of first nesting within a season for an individual (nesting date) was considered the nesting season of each individual. We identified 94 females and 463 nests (including 47 unidentified nests) during the survey. Nesting dates were distributed throughout the year. Nineteen turtles remigrated to the nesting beach, and the nesting dates of the remigrated females occurred in the same seasons. This indicates that females have a fixed individual nesting season even in a year-round nesting rookery. The year-round nesting of green turtles may be attributed to a wide variation in the nesting seasons of individuals. Satellite tracking revealed that the mean travelling duration of post-nesting migrations in this population was 13.5±6.1 days. The proximity of locations for reproduction and feeding may also play an important role in sustaining year-round nesting in this population.     

Variable effects of climate change on six species of North American birds

Many recent studies have shown that birds are advancing their laying date in response to long-term increases in spring temperatures. These studies have been conducted primarily in Europe and at local scales. If climate change is a large-scale phenomenon, then we should see responses at larger scales and in other regions. We examined the effects of long-term temperature change on the laying dates and clutch sizes of six ecologically diverse species of North American birds using 50 years of nest record data. As predicted, laying dates for most (four of six) species were earlier when spring temperatures were warmer. Over the long-term, laying dates advanced over time for two species (red-winged blackbirds, Agelaius phoeniceus and eastern bluebirds, Sialia sialis). Laying date of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) also advanced with increasing temperature when the analysis was restricted to eastern populations. Neither laying date nor clutch sizes changed significantly over time in the remaining species (American coot, Fulica americana, killdeer, Charadrius vociferous, and American robin, Turdus migratorius), an unsurprising result given the lack of increase in temperatures over time at nest locations of these species. This study indicates that the relationship between climate change and breeding in birds is variable within and among species. In large-scale analyses of North American birds, four of seven species have shown advances in laying dates with increasing temperature (including song sparrows in the east). These variable responses within and among species highlight the need for more detailed studies across large spatial scales.     

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of four lakes in the English Lake District

1. Thirty‐six years of winter meteorological and limnological measurements from four lakes in the English Lake District are analysed and related to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Winter weather conditions were strongly influenced by the NAO with mild, wet winters being associated with strongly positive values of the NAO index (NAOI). 2. Lake surface and bottom temperatures were strongly positively correlated with the NAOI, with the highest correlations being recorded in the shallower lakes. 3. Variations in the NAOI also had a significant effect on the winter concentration of nitrate. In all the lakes, there was a significant negative correlation between the NAOI and the detrended winter concentration of nitrate. The key driving variable was the local air temperature, which appeared to limit the quantity of nitrate reaching the lake by increasing the amount assimilated in the surrounding catchment in mild winters. 4. Dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) concentrations were not significantly correlated with the NAOI in the two larger basins but significant positive correlations were recorded in the two smaller lakes. The key driving variable was the local rainfall with higher DRP concentrations being recorded after heavy rain in the lakes with a short retention time. 5. The NAOI‐related changes in rainfall also influenced the phytoplankton. In wet winters the concentration of chlorophyll in the two smaller lakes with the shortest retention time was lower and the spring growth of Asterionella formosa was delayed in the smallest lake. 6. These differential responses demonstrate how the large‐scale effects associated with the NAO can be ‘filtered’ by the physical characteristics of a particular site.     

Effect of climate change on breeding phenology,clutch size and chick survival of an upland bird

Upland birds are predicted to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, yet few studies have examined these effects on their breeding phenology and productivity. Laying dates of Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica in the Scottish Highlands advanced by 0.5 days/year between 1992 and 2011 and were inversely correlated with pre‐laying temperature, with a near‐significant increase in temperature over this period. Earlier clutches were larger and chick survival was greater in earlier nesting attempts. However, chick survival was also higher in years with lower May temperatures and lower August temperatures in the previous year, the latter probably related to prey abundance in the subsequent breeding season. Although laying dates are advancing, climate change does not currently appear to be having an overall effect on chick survival of Red Grouse within the climate range recorded in this study.